2025-12-22

一般说价值投资的都瞧不起技术分析，这是误区，也是投资行业中“交易员”的价值。 比如看 Intel $INTC 我是长期投资看好，作为全球半导体“第二极”的美国战略价值，这是终点，但是路径是坎坷，你什么时候买？是不是大涨要卖？ 资本市场是无数投资者的无沟通协调博弈。比如一个城市约陌生人又不能联系，大概率不约而同选地标，比如上海东方明珠或者香港时代广场纽约中央车站。 市场也一样，资金会在最显眼的价位附近集中挂单，流动性、止损、算法触发都堆在那里。 找到最简单所有人知道最“丑陋质朴”的那些线均线、黄金分割、RSI，这些就是“集合点”，周一就要吹上攻集结号了么？ 个人观点赔率1:5。仅供教育分享。个人持有。👇分析

Most “value investors” hate charts. They shouldn’t. If you invest on a 5-year horizon, today’s RSI is mostly noise. But if you ignore technicals completely, you’ll keep overpaying for your own thesis. My $INTC view is structural, but the short game is execution. In a fractured world, the U.S. needs a credible domestic manufacturing pole. That’s the long game. But where can I add exposure with cheap risk, and where am I wrong? Markets are a coordination game. If we had to meet in NYC with no phones, we’d both end up at Grand Central under the clock. That’s a Schelling point: the default meeting place. In a market of millions of strangers, nobody can call each other and say: “Buy here.” So the crowd converges on the same obvious landmarks: round numbers, the 50/200DMA, prior highs/lows, and yes, the lazy-looking Fibonacci zones. A Schelling point. Grand Central for liquidity. $INTC is a clean example of “cheap risk”. 36.3 (Fi 0.618) held as the first defense. 36.9 (50DMA) is the next tell. 39.8 (Fi 0.786) is the real wall. Clear it with volume, and 44 becomes a map. Fundamentals tell you WHAT to own. Technicals tell you WHEN to size up, and where the thesis is invalid. Conviction is long-term. Execution is tactical. Skip the fancy lines. Use the levels everyone watches.