2025-12-11

Full Alphabet IC memo (Gumroad): Written for people who already know $GOOG is a core asset, but refuse to trade the tape like a mood swing. It does three things: -Pins scenario valuation ranges on GOOGL so +10% / -10% is context, not drama -Ties those ranges to explicit assumptions and catalysts, so you know what has to be true -Marks the zones where price and fundamentals decouple, which is where alpha lives, not comfort Link:

There is a little pattern in the tape that has become almost funny. Every OpenAI launch triggers the same reflex: the demo drops, the timeline melts, and Google trades down like it just lost another limb. If you think every OpenAI launch means Google is dying, you’re trading the surface story. OpenAI and Google aren’t even valued on the same axis anymore. One is drifting toward frontier infra plus agent layer economics. The other still earns its keep as the world’s biggest attention marketplace. The tape reacts as if OpenAI is taking Google’s lunch; in reality they are barely playing the same game. And yet Google is not some cornered incumbent. It runs its own stack end-to-end: silicon, models, cloud, distribution. When the frontier moves, Google isn’t just a victim of the headline. It’s also a beneficiary of the underlying economy the model boom feeds: more tokens, more workloads, more infra demand, including on its own cloud. The real question for investors has nothing to do with “coolness” or who grabbed the news cycle. It’s whether the market is still pricing Google purely as an ads machine, or whether you’re getting its entire AI optionality for free every time panic selling hits the tape. If you can tell the difference between a narrative drawdown and an actual earnings threat, you’re at least playing the stock on the right dimension.