Herman Jin · X 阅读

你应该问什么时候能回到7月的价位 个人觉得可能也就明年3-5月那波吧

@RYANHINGSHING 没啥用，HW政治上垮了，不能调动举国去花贵50%价钱去买performance差2代的芯片了

@TJ_Research @tigeryu2001 maybe

@lidamiao2300 @Michellewv11 @tigeryu2001 @TJ_Research 坚决看多

@Ocean42668833 AI labs are the “barbarians at the gate”. They don’t play by the old rules, nor respect the old conventions

@caixunexpress 一个月前就告诉你们会这样了啊

@gxd92743348 😂

@gxd92743348 我今天不在办公室啊～～

@Michellewv11 @tigeryu2001 @TJ_Research 不卖，我说的是市场钱买labs问题

@Theta_Ops @tigeryu2001 @TJ_Research 对～～我觉得他们会卖semi因为software不会被定价成AI rel，感觉会去冲anthropic的钱大部分是AI信仰票

@Ocean42668833 Well, never say never Take a look at Cursor — they used to distribute over 60% of Anthropic’s token

@Michellewv11 @tigeryu2001 @TJ_Research nbis 财务和crwv完全不同啊

@chengchuan123 平行的市场观点，不是链条关系

A cyber attack immediately gets priced as a tailwind for PANW and CRWD. Markets default to linear thinking. But what if Anthropic or OpenAI launches a cybersecurity product?? In such case, entire SaaS sector could get re-priced — regardless of whether it actually impairs any of their business Cybersecurity is simply one visible expression of a broader shift — data processing is being systematically converted into model inference As models replace humans in coding, not only cybersecurity but also code review, testing, and even invoking these systems all become model-driven. All the old workflow has to be rebuilt by AI

@pingchuan0125 长端利率在没有Fed干涉情况下可以对标nominal GDP（不一定要到） 现在美国nominal GDP= 6.5%

@tigeryu2001 @TJ_Research 卖半导体买labs

@nuoyi7777777 应该会的 会才是正常市场

我的观点长期以来其实非常一致 1. 长端利率需要逐步上升justify growth 2. Credit spread需要变宽反应持续供应需求 3. 基础推动力是：AI的普及——真实💰的需求，高ROI与坚决抢跑般的capex（1-10我们大概在2～3） 4. 虽然股市multiple会别压缩、变得苛刻，但是AI公司增长会更加惊人

冤大头=AI债务投资人 其实credit 市场对“冤大头”缺货短期反应过分了。除了供应预期，很多投资人不愿意IR波动很大的时候下手 早就觉得利差会变宽，但我不同意有关AI funding会延缓capex的说法 债的恐惧蔓延到股市，流动性不足下 Anth/OAI/meta又竞争性融资 但如果债反应过度，那么股反应严重过度 等等写篇东西总结下

@marc__8005v @Boiler_techer Im not sure, their margins hv peaked