Herman Jin · 2026-10-14 · 11 条帖子

@benofmillions 我觉得债股风险差不多，AI不行债券也死

@Hamilton8021 There might be a round of recovery of dram names after macro uncertainty / anthropic IPO are sorted out — hopefully end of 2026 or beginning of 2027

@StephenNY 顺天时报硬刚中宣，完犊子了

股市更像是CPI点燃🔥、放大了了各种小作文（CXMT、AI持续融资、Anthropic IPO…） 反应则由已经受压很久的credit，影响neocloud CDS上升，冲击整个AI赛道 但～所谓流动性冲击的“定义”就是短期的—HF&Asset mgt已净卖出，科技一个月来最严重超卖 ps风险是，我一直担心伊朗在中期之前会尽量恶心Trump

Anthropic IPO unlikely to slip Tougher tape would give IBs more reasons to accelerate rather than delay Heavy discount would indeed send a bad signal while AI funding debate remains hot which makes them look desperate. Alternative is to cut deal size Ultimately Dario’s call

@midcurvemuggle Yes, labor mkt condition is worsening but recession is not very likely given AI boom and related capex

Raising interest rates cannot produce another barrel of crude — or diesel, for that matter

市场还没切换到整体收入定价 不少投资人其实不是那么懂AI、了解semi的。他们喜欢简单标的比如Anthropic ARR、比如买MU买Lite Anthropic ARR必然很差，不然昨天就出S1了。但是整体AI收入比看Anthropic ARR的人预期要好得多

@jasonnotes0206 泄洪之后，堵了溃口不还得要淹三天；病人吃了药床上也得躺一躺吧 credit rate fx市场前两个月走着这鬼样，哪有可能立马就好

估值也就跟CRWD差不多

@jasonnotes0206 会波动很大，没啥办法