you live within the castle walls of this

Maritime order that people follow the

rules and then you're protected on the

outside we have military things Etc if

those walls are breached by dictatorship

or by really stupid Grand strategy like

our country's come perilously close in

the last few years perilously close if

Trump had been president at the time uh

Ukraine was invaded Ukraine would be no

more we would have Russian armies right

up to the Polish border now I gave the

Marshall lecture was published in the

Journal of military history and in it I

summarized my views on what the

difference between a continental and

Maritime power and that's one of my big

career takeaways it's a fundamentally

different way of looking at the world so

Putin honestly looks at the world that

if I control territory that's what makes

me secure Maritime Powers they start

with Britain which is hey M secure if I

can maximize money from Commerce because

then I can buy navy and buy allies with

armies and stuff and then eventually

this order of of organizing trade by

international law and the Dutch Republic

is instrumental in this with Hugo grodus

who is the founding father of

international law they want to run

transactions by law Etc this is um an

international order that's win-win you

join it you get security um you have

input on how it evolves because it's a

work in progress

whereas this Continental thing is negative sum and you can see it in Ukraine so Putin wants more territory

okay he's got a zone right he took the

eastern Ukraine and he uh took Crimea in

2014 but it's negative sum because he

destroys whatever businesses had been

being run in in dbass and he absolutely

kills the T most of the tourist industry

if you look at Europe as a peninsula uh

you're better off with more insulation

from Russia than not and Europeans uh as

a group understand that it is absolutely

in their interest to have an impregnable

border around Ukraine it protects them

all and isn't it fascinating that the

fins and the swedes who forever were

neutral are now all over this Europe

doesn't threaten Russia they would love

it if Russia would join the party join

the rules Bas order you'll make money

you'll do well except uh the oligarchs

in question this real minority of people

who run Russia and Putin they personally

won't do as well um they could join the

maritime order any day that is what um

at the end of the Cold War everyone

wanted them to do everyone wanted Putin

to join it the Russians if you think

about all the money Putin has spent on

his crazy military stuff imagine what

would have happened if he'd spent all

that on the Russian Road system because

their Road system's deplorable and

imagine if he had devoted his attention

to trying to uh have have a better legal

system so people could start small

businesses get bigger without having

someone then come in on them for

protection money think where Russia

would be now it would be dramatically

better they have so much energy so many

raw resources oh they have so many

talented people but Russians don't see

it that way they see it in this

Continental View and they're the ones

who have to come to terms with what they

think

in the meantime this is why containment is brilliant is in the meantime those of us who join the

maritime order need to work with each

other and then we contain the problem by

saying you cannot join us on equal

footing till you behave yourselves you

get a timeout right if you if you you

get a timeout from the global order but

we would welcome you back in so you're

talking about people doing territorial

conquests right and taking things you're

butchering a lot of people you're

destroying wealth in an incredibly rapid

clip you can do that but it's really

wealth destroying since the Industrial

Revolution in the west uh there has been

a growing consensus that that's probably

not the way to do things we are far

better uh crafting International

institutions International laws treaties

that we sign on to the parts that we

want to and then we adhere to them and

then that allows us to go all over the

world running our little credit card

transactions no one kills us and uh you

can make a lot of wealth right doing

that and that was the conclude that if

you look at uh since the Industrial

Revolution who's making all the money

people who buy into that system and uh

the Hitler uh territorial expansion is

in a way it's a real throwback to a

pre-industrial revolution way of

managing your National Security this

is how traditional Continental Empires

always did it the Industrial Revolution

with economic growth compounding

economic growth offers a completely

different alternative which says we're

going to do compounding wealth by having

rules that we can all adhere to and then

we'll run our commercial transactions

that way institutions are really

important institutions structure

decision making now it's very difficult

to figure out what types of Institutions

to build and uh when you see failings in

them you go I got to do something next

time but this again is the Brilliance of

this evolving Maritime order in which we

live where people sign on on to the

things in which it's in their interest

to sign on to them like you sign on to

treaties and then you have provisors of

the parts you don't want and you join

these International organizations and

then you influence how they develop Etc

so these organizations have been instrumental the ones built right after

World War II in holding to peace that

that's my biggest career takeaway is

that um if we go through international

law and international institutions and

this is not a hge political scientists

love to talk about ah America the

hegemon

right no other country in the world

wants an American hedgemon there may be

some people in the United States who

thinks that looks great but no one's

going to buy on uh buy into a world

order in which the United States is the

hegemon who pushes everyone else around

I get it we're big and we're influential

other people influential too uh but this

Maritime order where yeah we're an

important part of it but have many other

people in it it's a win-win and you can

look it's um with Biden right now he's

doing all of these meetings with

Europeans of managing of what's going to

go on in um Ukraine Etc and it's based

on agreement of all of these different

countries chipping in big and small

those countries that are willing to

cooperate with each other not invade

negotiate um their disagreement work

through International organizations

improve International

organizations that world is what you

want to protect and you want um to allow

people to come and join so if Russia

changes its mind uh new government Etc

you want to bring them back into just

the way um Japan and Germany were

brought back in uh you want to protect

that order forever our our prosperity is

based on it