---
author: Dwarkesh Patel
date: '2024-03-13'
guest: ''
layout: post.njk
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEahPLq1qBU
speaker: Dwarkesh Patel
tags:
- maritime-power
- continental-power
- international-law
- geopolitics
- win-win-order
title: 海上与大陆力量：解析全球秩序的演变
summary: 本文深入剖析了海上力量与大陆力量两种截然不同的世界观。作者阐述了以贸易、国际法和合作（海上秩序）为基础的“共赢”模式，如何优于以领土控制为核心、具有“负和”特性的“大陆”模式。通过历史案例和地缘政治分析，文章强调了国际制度和规则在促进全球繁荣与和平中的关键作用，并呼吁建立一个包容性的、可进化的全球秩序。
insight: ''
draft: true
series: ''
category: geopolitics
area: geopolitics
project: []
people: []
companies_orgs: []
products_models: []
media_books: []
status: evergreen
---
### 海上秩序：规则与商业的守护
我们生活在由**海上秩序**（Maritime Order）所构筑的“城堡围墙”之内。人们遵循规则，从而获得外部的保护。然而，一旦这些围墙被**独裁**或极其愚蠢的“大战略”所突破——正如我们国家过去几年中曾**濒临险境**——其后果不堪设想。演讲者分享了一个重要的职业洞察：他曾在《**军事史杂志**》发表的“马歇尔讲座”中，总结了他对“大陆力量”与“海上力量”之间差异的看法。这两种力量代表着一种根本不同的世界观。普京式的思维模式，即“控制领土即安全”，与海上强国（如**英国**）的逻辑截然不同。海上强国追求通过最大化**商业**收入来积累财富，进而能够购买强大的**海军**和盟友，最终实现安全。这种模式的核心在于依据**国际法**来组织贸易，**荷兰共和国**及其先驱**雨果·格老秀斯**（国际法之父）在此过程中起到了关键作用。他们致力于通过法律来规范交易，构建了一种**“共赢”**（Win-Win）的国际秩序。加入其中，你不仅能获得安全保障，还能对秩序的演进过程拥有发言权，因为它是一个持续**“在进步”**的体系。
Original English
you
live
within
the
castle
walls
of
this
Maritime
order
that
people
follow
the
rules
and
then
you're
protected
on
the
outside
we
have
military
things
Etc
if
those
walls
are
breached
by
dictatorship
or
by
really
stupid
Grand
strategy
like
our
country's
come
perilously
close
in
the
last
few
years
perilously
close
if
Trump
had
been
president
at
the
time
uh
Ukraine
was
invaded
Ukraine
would
be
no
more
we
would
have
Russian
armies
right
up
to
the
Polish
border
now
I
gave
the
Marshall
lecture
was
published
in
the
Journal
of
military
history
and
in
it
I
summarized
my
views
on
what
the
difference
between
a
continental
and
Maritime
power
and
that's
one
of
my
big
career
takeaways
it's
a
fundamentally
different
way
of
looking
at
the
world
so
Putin
honestly
looks
at
the
world
that
if
I
control
territory
that's
what
makes
me
secure
Maritime
Powers
they
start
with
Britain
which
is
hey
M
secure
if
I
can
maximize
money
from
Commerce
because
then
I
can
buy
navy
and
buy
allies
with
armies
and
stuff
and
then
eventually
this
order
of
of
organizing
trade
by
international
law
and
the
Dutch
Republic
is
instrumental
in
this
with
Hugo
grodus
who
is
the
founding
father
of
international
law
they
want
to
run
transactions
by
law
Etc
this
is
um
an
international
order
that's
win-win
you
join
it
you
get
security
um
you
have
input
on
how
it
evolves
because
it's
a
work
in
progress
### 大陆霸权：领土控制的危险
与之相对，**大陆**模式则是一种**“负和”**（Negative Sum）游戏。乌克兰的局势便是明证：普京寻求更多领土，占领了东乌克兰和2014年的**克里米亚**，但这种扩张却**摧毁**了当地原有的商业活动，并**扼杀**了旅游业。从地缘政治角度看，**欧洲**作为一个半岛，其安全福祉更在于与俄罗斯保持**“隔绝”**。欧洲各国普遍认识到，在乌克兰边境建立一道**“坚不可摧”**的屏障，对整体安全至关重要。值得注意的是，长期奉行**“中立”**的**芬兰**和**瑞典**如今也积极参与其中。欧洲并非意图威胁俄罗斯，他们反而乐见俄罗斯能够加入现有的**“基于规则的秩序”**，共同发展，实现繁荣。然而，少数**寡头**和以普京为代表的俄罗斯当权者，因个人利益考量，未能拥抱这种模式。他们本可以随时加入**海上秩序**，这正是冷战结束后各国对俄罗斯的期望。俄罗斯若能将用于军事的巨额资金投入到**俄国糟糕的道路系统**，或是致力于建立健全的**法律体系**，鼓励**小企业**发展，而非受制于人，其国力必将**大幅提升**。俄罗斯拥有丰富的能源、资源和**大量人才**，但他们未能从**大陆视角**之外审视自身。最终，俄罗斯自身必须直面并调整其固有的战略思维。
Original English
whereas this Continental thing is negative sum and you can see it in Ukraine so Putin wants more territory
okay he's got a zone right he took the
eastern Ukraine and he uh took Crimea in
2014 but it's negative sum because he
destroys whatever businesses had been
being run in in dbass and he absolutely
kills the T most of the tourist industry
if you look at Europe as a peninsula uh
you're better off with more insulation
from Russia than not and Europeans uh as
a group understand that it is absolutely
in their interest to have an impregnable
border around Ukraine it protects them
all and isn't it fascinating that the
fins and the swedes who forever were
neutral are now all over this Europe
doesn't threaten Russia they would love
it if Russia would join the party join
the rules Bas order you'll make money
you'll do well except uh the oligarchs
in question this real minority of people
who run Russia and Putin they personally
won't do as well um they could join the
maritime order any day that is what um
at the end of the Cold War everyone
wanted them to do everyone wanted Putin
to join it the Russians if you think
about all the money Putin has spent on
his crazy military stuff imagine what
would have happened if he'd spent all
that on the Russian Road system because
their Road system's deplorable and
imagine if he had devoted his attention
to trying to uh have have a better legal
system so people could start small
businesses get bigger without having
someone then come in on them for
protection money think where Russia
would be now it would be dramatically
better they have so much energy so many
raw resources oh they have so many
talented people but Russians don't see
it that way they see it in this
Continental View and they're the ones
who have to come to terms with what they
think
### 工业革命的遗产：制度驱动财富增长
在此期间，**“遏制”**策略显得尤为高明。这意味着，我们这些遵循**海上秩序**的国家需要紧密合作，共同遏制那些不守规矩的力量。我们通过明确告知，在行为端正之前，对方**“无法平等加入”**，实际上是将其置于**“暂停观察期”**。尽管如此，我们始终欢迎其重返国际大家庭。相较于**领土扩张**和**掠夺**行为——这会**屠杀民众**并**迅速摧毁财富**——自西方的**工业革命**以来，一种日益增长的共识是，这种旧式的“大陆帝国”模式已不再适用。如今，我们更倾向于通过构建**国际制度**（International Institutions）、**国际法**和**条约**来实现**“财富的复合增长”**。通过签署并遵守我们认为符合自身利益的规则，我们得以在全球范围内安全地进行**商业交易**，并积累可观财富。历史上，**希特勒**式的领土扩张，本质上是**前工业革命时代**国家安全管理模式的回溯。而工业革命及其带来的**经济增长**，提供了一种截然不同的替代方案：建立一套普适的**规则**，并在此基础上实现**商业交易**。**制度**因此变得至关重要，它们塑造着**决策过程**。尽管设计和完善**国际机构**充满挑战，面对其失灵之处，我们需要不断迭代。这正是我们所处的、不断演变的**海上秩序**的精妙之处——各国在符合自身利益的前提下，自主选择加入并影响其发展。
Original English
in the meantime this is why containment is brilliant is in the meantime those of us who join the
maritime order need to work with each
other and then we contain the problem by
saying you cannot join us on equal
footing till you behave yourselves you
get a timeout right if you if you you
get a timeout from the global order but
we would welcome you back in so you're
talking about people doing territorial
conquests right and taking things you're
butchering a lot of people you're
destroying wealth in an incredibly rapid
clip you can do that but it's really
wealth destroying since the Industrial
Revolution in the west uh there has been
a growing consensus that that's probably
not the way to do things we are far
better uh crafting International
institutions International laws treaties
that we sign on to the parts that we
want to and then we adhere to them and
then that allows us to go all over the
world running our little credit card
transactions no one kills us and uh you
can make a lot of wealth right doing
that and that was the conclude that if
you look at uh since the Industrial
Revolution who's making all the money
people who buy into that system and uh
the Hitler uh territorial expansion is
in a way it's a real throwback to a
pre-industrial revolution way of
managing your National Security this
is how traditional Continental Empires
always did it the Industrial Revolution
with economic growth compounding
economic growth offers a completely
different alternative which says we're
going to do compounding wealth by having
rules that we can all adhere to and then
we'll run our commercial transactions
that way institutions are really
important institutions structure
decision making now it's very difficult
to figure out what types of Institutions
to build and uh when you see failings in
them you go I got to do something next
time but this again is the Brilliance of
this evolving Maritime order in which we
live where people sign on on to the
things in which it's in their interest
to sign on to them like you sign on to
treaties and then you have provisors of
the parts you don't want and you join
these International organizations and
then you influence how they develop Etc
### 全球秩序：合作超越霸权
第二次世界大战后建立的**国际组织**，在维护和平方面发挥了**巨大作用**——这是演讲者最大的职业体会。通过**国际法**和**国际制度**，我们得以构建一个稳定的世界。政治科学家们热衷于讨论**“美国霸权”**（American Hegemon），但现实是，**没有哪个国家**真心希望看到一个由美国主导、予取予求的**“霸权秩序”**。尽管美国拥有强大的影响力和资源，但一个真正理想的**海上秩序**，应当是**多国参与**的、**“共赢”**的。正如当前**拜登政府**正在与欧洲各国进行的一系列会议，共同商议**乌克兰**等事务，其基础是**各国（无论大小）的共识与贡献**。这些愿意**合作**、**协商**分歧、并通过**国际组织**解决问题的国家，共同构成了我们期望保护的世界。我们希望**邀请**和**接纳**那些改变心意的国家（如**俄罗斯**，或过去如**日本**和**德国**）重新加入。保护并发展这样的秩序，是确保我们**世代繁荣**的基石。
Original English
so these organizations have been instrumental the ones built right after
World War II in holding to peace that
that's my biggest career takeaway is
that um if we go through international
law and international institutions and
this is not a hge political scientists
love to talk about ah America the
hegemon
right no other country in the world
wants an American hedgemon there may be
some people in the United States who
thinks that looks great but no one's
going to buy on uh buy into a world
order in which the United States is the
hegemon who pushes everyone else around
I get it we're big and we're influential
other people influential too uh but this
Maritime order where yeah we're an
important part of it but have many other
people in it it's a win-win and you can
look it's um with Biden right now he's
doing all of these meetings with
Europeans of managing of what's going to
go on in um Ukraine Etc and it's based
on agreement of all of these different
countries chipping in big and small
those countries that are willing to
cooperate with each other not invade
negotiate um their disagreement work
through International organizations
improve International
organizations that world is what you
want to protect and you want um to allow
people to come and join so if Russia
changes its mind uh new government Etc
you want to bring them back into just
the way um Japan and Germany were
brought back in uh you want to protect
that order forever our our prosperity is
based on it