市场焦点：黄金价格创历史新高

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This is the Bloomberg Dayb podcast. Good morning. It's Wednesday the 8th of October. I'm Caroline Hepka in London.

这是彭博社的 Daybreak 播客。早上好。今天是10月8日，星期三。我是伦敦的 Caroline Hepka。

and I'm Steven Carol in Paris. Coming up today, the price of gold smashes through $4,000 an ounce for the first time as US government shutdown fears fueled a safe haven rally. With just hours to go until Emmanuel Macron's self-imposed deadline, French opposition parties show little appetite for a deal.

我是巴黎的 Steven Carol。今天即将关注的重点包括：黄金价格首次突破每盎司4000美元，此前美国政府停摆的担忧推动了避险资产的上涨。距离法国总统马克龙设定的最后期限只剩下几个小时，法国反对党却对达成协议表现得兴趣寥寥。

Plus, scoring big, Ronaldo becomes the world's first football billionaire following a huge Saudi deal.

此外，得分王：C罗在一笔巨额沙特交易后，成为世界上首位足球亿万富翁。

Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. The price of gold has topped $4,000 an ounce for the first time in history as concerns over the US economy and the government shutdown added fresh momentum to a scorching rally.

让我们先来回顾一下今天的主要新闻。黄金价格已创下历史新高，首次突破每盎司4000美元，此前对美国经济和政府停摆的担忧为这轮炽热的涨势增添了新的动力。

Uncertainties over global trade, geopolitical tensions, concerns about Fed independence, and a move away from the dollar have also helped to fuel the rise in bullion, which traded at less than half its current value just two years ago. Angelina Lie, chief investment officer for Asia in the Middle East at St. James's Place.

全球贸易的不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势、对美联储独立性的担忧以及对美元的抛售，也助长了金价的上涨。仅仅在两年前，金价还不到目前的一半。St. James's Place 亚洲及中东地区首席投资官 Angelina Lie 表示：

What we are really seeing is a flight to safety. Um we tend to talk about gold as a board indicator for the fear and greed index actually because there is no cash flow attached to gold and for a organization such as us that believes in valuation and fundamentals as a basis. It's extremely difficult to value something like a gold which does not have cash flows attached to it.

“我们真正看到的是资金流向避险资产。我们倾向于将黄金视为‘恐惧与贪婪指数’的指标，因为它没有附带现金流。对于像我们这样相信估值和基本面是基础的机构来说，要为像黄金这样没有现金流的资产进行估值，是非常困难的。”

Aangela lie speaking there. Jumps in the price of gold typically track broader economic and political stress. The metal climbed above $1,000 an ounce in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, $2,000 during the COVID pandemic, and $3,000 as the Trump administration's tariff plans ripples through global markets in March. Now, in France, there are just hours to go until Emanuel Macron's deadline for parties to agree to work together on a budget.

Angelina Lie 刚刚的发言。黄金价格的飙升通常与更广泛的经济和政治压力同步。在2008年全球金融危机之后，黄金价格曾攀升至每盎司1000美元以上，在新冠疫情期间达到2000美元，并在3月份特朗普政府的关税计划扰乱全球市场时达到3000美元。现在，在法国，距离马克龙设定的政党就预算协议达成一致的最后期限只剩下几个小时了。

Opposition parties are making demands including their choice for prime minister, fresh elections and in some cases the president's own resignation. The outgoing prime minister Sebastia Lornu will continue meetings with political leaders today. Olivier Fur of the Socialist Party told France to television that their party wants the prime minister from their ranks and not new elections.

反对党们正在提出各种要求，包括任命他们选择的总理、重新大选，甚至在某些情况下要求总统辞职。看守总理 Élisabeth Borne 将继续与各政党领导人会晤。社会党领袖 Olivier Faure 告诉 France 2 电视台，他们的党派希望总理来自他们的阵营，而不是重新大选。

I want the left to govern. I don't just want to be obsessed with what now also obsesses the right, that is the presidential election. As if there were nothing else. And the French people who see this shadow play, this street theater day after day are saying to themselves, are you finally going to talk about us?

“我希望左翼能够执政。我不想像右翼那样，只关注总统选举，好像没有别的事情发生一样。而法国人民，他们每天看着这种政治角力、这种街头剧，他们对自己说，你们终于要谈论我们了吗？”

Socialist party leader Olivier for speaking there via a translator. President Mau gave Sebastian Lornu until this evening to form an agreement with other parties. The left and the center right have ruled out joining forces in a unity cabinet, but sources have told Bloomberg that the Republican party might be willing to refrain from toppling a socialist government if the far-left is kept out of power.

社会党领袖 Olivier Faure 通过翻译发表了讲话。马克龙总统给了 Élisabeth Borne 直到今天晚上的时间，以与其他政党达成协议。左翼和中右翼已排除组建联合政府的可能性，但消息人士告诉彭博社，如果极左翼被排除在权力之外，共和党可能会愿意不推翻一个社会主义政府。

人工智能领域的巨额投资与潜在风险

Elon Musk's artificial intelligence startup XAI is increasing its ongoing funding round to $20 billion. In the latest leg of the AI spending boom, Bloomberg has learned that XAI is accessing more financing than initially planned, including $2 billion from Nvidia to finance chips for its Colossus 2 project. It comes despite billionaire Elon Musk posting on X in September that he was not raising any capital right now.

埃隆·马斯克的人工智能初创公司 XAI 正在将其正在进行的融资轮增至200亿美元。在人工智能支出热潮的最新一轮中，彭博社获悉 XAI 正在获得比最初计划更多的融资，其中包括来自英伟达的20亿美元，用于为其 Colossus 2 项目提供芯片。这与马斯克在9月份在 X（前身为 Twitter）上发帖表示他目前不融资的说法相悖。

The massive financing is just the latest for the tech sector this year, something JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond compared to the dot bubble. It's a lot. I'm not sure it's all ever going to be totally spent. I think when you look at big tech like tech that happens like this and you go look at cars, you look at television, you look at internet, big money's got spent, there were a lot of losers, a lot of winners in total was productive. So take even take the internet bubble remember that blew up and amount of pe I can you and I could probably name a 100 companies that you know were worth $50 billion and disappeared but out of it came Facebook, YouTube, Google you know so there will be real big companies with real big success. It will work despite the fact that not everyone who invests in it is going to have a great investment return.

这笔巨额融资是今年科技行业的最新一笔，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙将其比作互联网泡沫。“这笔钱太多了。我不确定它们最终是否都会被花掉。我认为，当你看看大型科技公司，看看科技行业发生的事情，就像汽车、电视、互联网一样，巨额资金已被投入，其中有很多失败者，也有很多赢家，总的来说是富有成效的。以互联网泡沫为例，你还记得它破灭了吗？我敢说我和你都能说出100家曾经价值500亿美元但却消失了的公司，但它也催生了Facebook、YouTube、Google。所以，将会出现真正的大公司，取得巨大的成功。即使不是每个投资者都能获得丰厚的回报，它也会成功。”

Jamie Diamond was speaking to Bloomberg at JP Morgan's Tech Stars conference. Despite the optimism, many are looking at the trillions of dollars pledged to AI infrastructure and asking if relationships are too circular. Today's Bloomberg Bigtake looks at the AI race with one analyst telling them Sam Oldman has the power to crash the global economy for a decade or take us all to the promised land.

Jamie Dimon 在摩根大通的 Tech Stars 会议上向彭博社发表了讲话。尽管前景乐观，但许多人正在关注承诺用于人工智能基础设施的数万亿美元，并质疑这种关系是否过于循环。今天的彭博社“大视野”节目关注了人工智能竞赛，一位分析师告诉他们，Sam Altman （此处的 Sam Oldman 疑似口误）拥有让全球经济崩溃十年或将我们带入应许之地的能力。

加沙冲突与停火谈判

Now, teams from the US, Qatar, and Israel are set to gather in Egypt for final negotiations to end the war in Gaza. Bloomberg understands that officials including close Netanyahu adviser Ron Derma and US special envoy Steve Witkov are expected to take part in negotiations. Israeli opposition leader Ya Lid says he's hoping for an end to the conflict.

现在，来自美国、卡塔尔和以色列的团队将齐聚埃及，就结束加沙战争进行最终谈判。彭博社获悉，包括内塔尼亚胡的亲密顾问 Ron Dermer 和美国特使 Steve Witkov 在内的官员预计将参加谈判。以色列反对派领袖 Yair Lapid 表示，他希望冲突能够结束。

A war that is going nowhere, hostages that are slowly dying, and of course the suffering Gaza that everybody in his right mind cares about. Children should not die in grown-ups wars. Um, so for everybody's sake, we pray for this to end.

一场毫无进展的战争，人质们在慢慢死去，当然还有加沙地区遭受的苦难，这是任何有正常思维的人都会关心的。孩子们不应该在成人的战争中死去。所以，为了大家，我们祈祷这一切能尽快结束。

Yay. Lapid there speaking to Sky News. Hamas spokesperson Fuzzy Bahum said a permanent ceasefire and withdrawal of Israeli troops must be central to a deal during a televised address on Qatar based broadcaster Al Jazzer. Qatar's Prime Minister Shik Muhammad bin Abdul Raman Alani and President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner are also expected to attend those talks.

Yair Lapid 在那里对 Sky News 说道。哈马斯发言人 Fawzi Barhoum 在卡塔尔半岛电视台的一次电视讲话中表示，永久停火和以色列军队撤离必须是协议的核心。卡塔尔首相 Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani 和美国总统特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳预计也将出席这些会谈。

英国贫富差距拉大

The gap between the wealthy and the average British worker is too large even for a lifetime of savings to bridge. The Resolution Foundation think tank found a typical full-time employee would need to set aside around 52 years worth of pay to reach the top 10%. Bloomberg's James Wilco has more. If you work hard, can you get ahead? The Resolution Foundation say the answer is clear. Not anymore. Their research says in Britain since 2008, if you owned wealth, you saw far more gains than from a paycheck. They add the intergenerational wealth gap between people in their 30s and people in their 60s has doubled in that time period. Taxing that wealth has become a political issue with those on the left pushing Chancellor Rachel Reeves to do more to balance the scales. In London, James Walco, Bloomberg Radio. And those are our top stories for you this morning.

富裕阶层与普通英国工薪阶层之间的差距过大，即使终生储蓄也难以弥合。Resolution Foundation 智库的研究发现，一个典型的全职员工需要拿出大约52年的工资才能达到财富排名前10%的水平。彭博社的 James Wilco 带来更多报道。如果你努力工作，能取得进步吗？Resolution Foundation 表示答案很明确：现在不行了。他们的研究表明，自2008年以来，在英国，如果你拥有财富，你的收益远超薪水带来的收益。他们补充说，30多岁人群和60多岁人群之间的代际财富差距在此期间翻了一番。对财富征税已成为一个政治问题，左翼人士敦促财政大臣 Rachel Reeves 采取更多措施来平衡天平。这里是伦敦，彭博社广播，James Wilco 报道。以上是我们今天早上的主要新闻。

市场概览

Looking at the markets, spot gold is now trading up 1% again this morning, $4,026. Stocks though seeing uh more declines from record highs, it must be said. MCI Asia-Pacific index is down 6/10en of 1%. Stock futures for Europe are also just flat this morning. S&P 500 e- futures uh edging upwards a tenth of 1%. Ray Dalio saying the stock market feels frothy. Mainland China and South Korean markets closed for holidays today. Today the Kiwis dropped. We had a 50 basis point RBNZ rate cut. 10-year Treasury yields are also steady this morning, trading at 4.12%. Those are the markets.

关注市场，现货黄金今早再次上涨1%，报4026美元。然而，股市则从历史高位出现更多下跌。MSCI 亚太指数下跌了0.6%。欧洲股指期货今早也基本持平。标普500指数期货小幅上涨0.1%。Ray Dalio 表示，股市感觉有些过热。中国内地和韩国市场今天因节假日休市。新西兰元今日下跌，新西兰联储降息50个基点。10年期美国国债收益率今早也保持稳定，交投于4.12%。以上是市场情况。

深度解读：黄金的持续上涨

In a moment, we'll bring you more on gold's glittering run. Plus, where next for Emanuel Macron and some reporting from our Portugal bureau chief that you won't want to miss, but another story we've been reading this morning. I don't know how much time you've spent analyzing or parsing Taylor Swift's new album, but you'd be pleased to know that Jason Bailey from Blue Opinion has been on the case as well. He's been looking a bit at the numbers, which are very positive about the album drop as well, but also the mixed reviews. So positive from some leg legacy publications but some mixed reception online as well which is an interesting phenomenon because of the incredibly um I don't know if viferous is the word uh support of Taylor Swift that you can find almost everywhere on the internet and also the risks of saying anything bad about Taylor Swift and the potential for being cancelled as a result.

稍后，我们将为您带来更多关于黄金闪耀表现的报道。此外，法国总统马克龙的下一步动向，以及我们葡萄牙分社社长的报道，您一定不想错过。不过，今天早上我们还读到了另一则新闻。我不知道您花了多少时间分析或解读泰勒·斯威夫特的新专辑，但您可能会高兴地得知，Blue Opinion 的 Jason Bailey 也对此进行了研究。他看了一些数据，这些数据对于专辑的发布非常有利，但也反映了评价不一。一些传统媒体的评价是积极的，但网上也有一些评价不一，这是一个有趣的现象，因为你几乎可以在互联网上找到对泰勒·斯威夫特不可思议的……我不知道“猛烈”这个词是否恰当……支持，而且说任何关于泰勒·斯威夫特不好的话的风险，以及可能因此被“取消”的可能性。

She's she's a billionaire. She's just come off the Smash Eas tour. Um she's got her own music catalog back. Uh just got engaged obviously, you know, she's she's powering ahead.

她是一位亿万富翁。她刚刚结束了“The Eras Tour”。她拿回了自己的音乐版权。显然，她也订婚了，你知道，她正在大步前进。

Yeah. I mean, look, and and lots going on and plenty of opinions to be shared apparently about it. So Jason's been digging into sort of the release strategy and whether it was right to put the whole album out at the same time with the video for the fate of Aphilia and the launch watch party as well. May perhaps there was a you know not it wasn't the traditional playbook for how you know big new releases are are done. Now, of course, Taylor Swift, as we know, forges her own path in so many things. So, uh, great read this morning. bloomberg.com/inion, and we'll put a link to it in our podcast show notes.

是的。我的意思是，你看，事情很多，显然有很多意见可以分享。所以 Jason 正在深入研究发布策略，以及是否应该在同一时间发布整张专辑，并配上“The Fate of Afilias”的视频和发布派对。也许，你知道，这并不是传统的新发布方式。当然，我们都知道，泰勒·斯威夫特在很多事情上都走自己的路。所以，嗯，今天早上是一篇很棒的文章。您可以在 bloomberg.com/opinion 上阅读，我们会在播客的节目备注中提供链接。

Okay. Well, let's think about what's happening in the markets. The spot price of gold smashing through $4,000 an ounce for the very first time ever. That is a jump of more than 50% this year. Bloomberg's markets live strategist Mark Cranfield joins us now for more on this. Mark, come on. There are so many superlatives about this. Put it into context. How much has gold rallied?

好的。那么，我们来关注一下市场动态。现货黄金价格有史以来首次突破每盎司4000美元。今年迄今已上涨超过50%。彭博社的市场直播策略师 Mark Cranfield 现在加入我们，带来更多信息。Mark，说说看。关于这件事，有太多溢美之词了。能否将其置于背景中说明一下？黄金上涨了多少？

Yeah, I think what one of the exciting things apart from, as you say, the that 50% jump is the speed with which it covered the last $1,000 in price. So, between 3,000 to 4,000. He did that in around 7 months, which is by far the quickest of the the various stages of um rally that the gold has had over its life. That is that is certainly the quickest it's covered the the price of $1,000. So very impressive, much quicker than it was between 2 and 3,000 for example. So uh yeah, just around a 7 month rally and you would have earned um around $1,000 if you'd have been involved in gold at that time. So that's something to take into account, although you would have done even better if you'd have been in silver. That's rallied about 60% this year.

是的，我认为除了你说的50%的涨幅之外，最令人兴奋的一点是它以多快的速度完成了最后1000美元的价格上涨。从3000美元到4000美元，大约用了7个月的时间，这无疑是黄金在其历史上经历的各个上涨阶段中最快的一次。这绝对是它完成每1000美元价格上涨中最快的一次。所以非常令人印象深刻，比例如2000美元到3000美元之间要快得多。所以，是的，大约7个月的上涨，如果你当时投资了黄金，你将赚取大约1000美元。所以这一点需要考虑，尽管如果你投资了白银，你会做得更好，今年白银已经上涨了约60%。

Interesting. Why I mean is the short the short question. Why have we gotten to this stage? um it's a lot to to do with what other currencies are doing or not doing and also the the geopolitics. Several things have have fallen into place that support gold at the moment. So I think you must never forget although people describe gold as a metal, it's really a currency because it is exchangeable. You could you can actually take a gold coin and you can get cash for it at any time. And so what we have at the moment is a situation where the euro has a French problem. So it's not so popular. The yen, as you know, has been extremely weak. I'm sure you've been talking about that a lot as well and it's just got weaker with this potential new female prime minister coming in. The pound is a bit underwhelming as well. It's got its own issues. So there are several major currencies. New Zealand currency is getting battered today with the with the rate cut. So within the G10 space, the competitors to gold are not having a great time. Even the dollar is losing its it's still the largest currency by reserve managers, but that share is falling. So even the dollar is being undermined a bit. So all of that supports reasons for being in gold. Then you have the general geopolitical situation which to a lot of investors looks more unstable this year than it has for many many years. Again that's a that's a positive for gold and the low interest rate environment is another thing as well. Gold generally does well when interest rates are on a downtrend in in major countries. So all of those things put gold in a in a good position. It may well have got out of control. It may be there's too much speculation in the very short term. It's gone too far. But certainly there are tangible reasons why you can see gold is being seen as a very good haven in this environment.

有趣。为什么……我的意思是，这是个简单的问题。为什么我们会达到这个阶段？这在很大程度上与其它货币的表现（或不表现）以及地缘政治有关。目前有几件事促成了黄金的上涨。所以，我认为你永远不能忘记，尽管人们将黄金描述为一种金属，但它实际上是一种货币，因为它具有交换性。你可以随时拿着一枚金币去兑换现金。所以，我们现在的情况是，欧元面临着法国的问题，因此不太受欢迎。日元，正如你所知，一直非常疲软。我敢肯定你已经多次谈论过这个问题，而且随着这位潜在的新女性总理的上任，日元变得更加疲软。英镑也有些令人失望，它也有自己的问题。所以，有几种主要的货币。新西兰货币今天因降息而受到重创。所以在 G10 货币范围内，黄金的竞争对手们日子都不好过。就连美元也在失去其……它仍然是储备管理机构手中的最大货币，但其份额正在下降。所以，就连美元也受到了一点侵蚀。所有这些都为投资黄金提供了理由。然后，你还有普遍的地缘政治局势，对许多投资者来说，今年的局势比多年来都要不稳定。这再次是黄金的利好因素，而低利率环境也是一个因素。通常情况下，当主要国家的利率呈下降趋势时，黄金表现良好。所以，所有这些因素都使黄金处于有利地位。它可能已经失控了。短期内可能存在过多的投机。它已经走得太远了。但肯定有一些切实的原因，可以解释为什么在这种环境下，黄金被视为一个非常好的避风港。

Yeah. I mean and at times of stress that is often the case. But as you point out where does it go from here? And there are lots of views. I mean from Bridgewwater's Ray Dalio to Citell's Ken Griffin the Goldman Sachs forecast to the end of next year there are lots of views on the trajectory. the the biggest risk to it in the near term is that it's become another momentum play. Something like tech stocks in America and around the world. So if you look at what macro traders are doing at the moment, some of their biggest positions are likely to be long of AI themes, long of gold. They probably were short US dollar. They're starting to reverse a bit now. And so those kind of positions have probably got very large. And when they turn, they're probably going to turn together. So if if we see a sharp correction, let's say this earning season is not as good as expected in the United States, the one that's just started, we get a turn in the stock market there, you will probably see that gold will follow because people who have similar positions will need to make up P&L losses because of what's happening in a different asset class. So that's the biggest risk to gold in the short term. The other the factors like geopolitical risk, that's probably not going to go away in the short term. other currencies would need to prove themselves to be a lot better to get people to give up their gold to. So if there's a sudden dramatic change in Europe where France looks a bit a lot better place, Europe's getting sacked together and suddenly the euro is very strong that would hurt gold as well.

是的。我的意思是，在压力时期，情况往往如此。但正如你所指出的，接下来会怎样？有很多观点。从 Bridgewater 的 Ray Dalio 到 Citadel 的 Ken Griffin，以及高盛对明年年底的预测，都有很多关于其轨迹的看法。在短期内，它面临的最大风险是它已经成为另一种动量交易。就像美国和世界各地的科技股一样。所以，如果你看看宏观交易员们现在在做什么，他们一些最大的头寸可能是看好人工智能主题、看好黄金。他们可能曾做空美元。现在他们开始有所回调。所以，这类头寸可能已经变得非常大。当它们反转时，它们很可能会一起反转。所以，如果我们看到一个急剧的回调，比如说，在美国刚刚开始的这个财报季不如预期，美股市场出现反转，你可能会看到黄金也会随之 V 型反弹，因为持有类似头寸的人将不得不弥补因其他资产类别发生的事情造成的损益损失。所以，这是黄金短期内面临的最大风险。其他因素，如地缘政治风险，短期内可能不会消失。其他货币需要证明自己好得多，才能让人们放弃黄金。所以，如果欧洲出现突然的、戏剧性的变化，法国看起来好转很多，欧洲团结起来，欧元突然变得非常强势，那也会损害黄金。

Very interesting. Yeah, the risks and rewards. Mark Cranfield, thanks for being with us. Pinnberg's markets live strategist.

非常有趣。是的，风险与回报。Mark Cranfield，感谢您的参与。彭博社的市场直播策略师。

法国政治僵局：马克龙的困境

Well, we're counting down to the next political deadline here in France as outgoing Prime Minister Sebastian Lornu tries to build support for his budget plans. President Mron has given him until this evening to make progress. Our managing editor for European Economics and Government, Ben SS, joins us now for more. Ben, good morning. Sebastian, good morning. Meeting the Socialist Party leadership today. Are they the key to his success in this mission?

好了，我们在法国这里正倒数着下一个政治死线，因为即将卸任的总理 Élisabeth Borne 正试图争取对她的预算计划的支持。马克龙总统已给她直到今天晚上的时间来取得进展。我们的欧洲经济与政府管理编辑 Ben SS 现在加入我们，带来更多信息。Ben，早上好。Élisabeth，早上好。今天与社会党领导层会晤。他们是她完成这项任务的关键吗？

Yeah, they really are. the way the kind of complicated mathematics of of the of the French parliament works out. Macron's weak centrist group has got a relatively uh and I use that word advisedly, a relatively stable alliance with the with the center-right Republicans. They have got the far right national rally of Marine the Pen in fairly entrenched opposition. And the key to forming a majority is to persuade the socialists to break away from the far-left group and join a join a kind of centrist alliance, but so far they failed to do it.

是的，他们确实是。法国议会的复杂数学运作方式是这样的：马克龙的弱势中间派团体与中右翼共和党人结成了相对……我慎重使用这个词，相对稳定的联盟。他们面临着马琳·勒庞领导的极右翼国民联盟的相当顽固的反对。而组建多数派的关键在于说服社会党脱离极左翼集团，加入一个中间派联盟，但到目前为止，他们未能做到这一点。

Well, some parties are already preparing for National Assembly elections. How likely do you think that that is at this point?

那么，有些政党已经在为国民议会选举做准备了。你认为在这一点上，这种可能性有多大？

It's pretty likely. The basic situation is that none of the options look good for Macron to get the socialists on board. he's almost certainly going to have to compromise on some key elements of his uh of his platform, whether that means raising taxes or rolling back his pension reform, something like that, which would be a major a major retreat for Macron. Um, but if he doesn't do that, calling an election for the parliament, it risks making things worse for him. the national rally is most likely to gain in that situation, but he's really kind of running out of options to try and find other people who can who can put together a a functioning government just because the parliamentary matters is so complicated.

可能性很大。基本情况是，没有哪种选择对马克龙来说能让社会党人信服。他几乎肯定不得不妥协他的一些关键政纲，无论是提高税收还是撤销他的养老金改革，等等，这将是马克龙的一次重大、重大的退步。但是，如果他不这样做，就提前举行议会选举，这可能会让他处境更加糟糕。在这种情况下，国民联盟最有可能获胜。但他确实是黔驴技穷，很难找到其他人能够组建一个运作正常的政府，因为议会事务实在太复杂了。

Some of Macron's close allies also appear to be keen to distance themselves from the president. You mentioned the pension reforms there. It's been hugely controversial. another former prime minister, Elizabeth Bne coming out saying that she's in favor of suspending the pension reforms now, which is a certain uh change in her position from when she was in the Macron uh when she was prime minister, she's still a minister in the outgoing cabinet now. Does all of this add to the sense that Macron really is a lame duck president now? even though he has 18 months left on his term.

马克龙的一些亲密盟友似乎也急于与总统划清界限。你刚才提到了养老金改革，这引起了巨大的争议。另一位前总理 Élisabeth Borne 公开表示，她现在支持暂停养老金改革，这与她担任马克龙政府总理时的立场截然不同。她现在仍然是看守内阁的一员。所有这些是否都加剧了人们的看法，即马克龙现在确实是一位跛脚鸭总统？尽管他还有18个月的任期。

By by any standard measure, Macron is definitely a lame duck and he probably has been for a year or so now since since the um since the parliamentary elections um last summer which which triggered this this gridlock. That said, Macron is an exceptional politician and he has been extremely active and quite effective on the international stage over the last year or so, particularly the last seven or eight months since since Trump returned to power. He's got a relationship with Donald Trump. Relationships with Donald Trump are one of the fundamental assets in the world in which we live. And so he's, you know, he's been effective, but his ability to shake domestic politics is extremely limited and he's extremely unpopular. So we're very much kind of in the countdown, like the final chapter of the Macron presidency, that's for sure.

按照任何标准衡量，马克龙无疑是一位跛脚鸭总统，而且自从去年夏天议会选举导致这种僵局以来，他可能已经这样一年左右了。尽管如此，马克龙是一位杰出的政治家，在过去一年左右的时间里，尤其是在特朗普上台后的过去七八个月里，他在国际舞台上一直非常活跃且相当有效。他与唐纳德·特朗普保持着关系。与唐纳德·特朗普的关系是我们当今世界的基本资产之一。所以，你知道，他一直很有效，但他影响国内政治的能力非常有限，而且他非常不受欢迎。所以，我们基本上是在倒计时，就像马克龙总统任期的最后一章一样，这一点毋庸置疑。

Okay, Ben, it's a very uh interesting moment then in French politics. Ben SS, our managing editor for European Economy and Government. Thank you. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak Europe coming up after this.

好的，Ben，这确实是法国政治中一个非常有趣的时刻。感谢 Ben SS，我们的欧洲经济与政府管理主编。请继续关注。稍后将有更多来自彭博社欧洲晨报的节目。

足球巨星C罗：首位亿万富翁球员

Now, prolific goalcorer Cristiano Ronaldo has done something no other footballer has managed. He has become a billionaire according to the Bloomberg billionaires index thanks to a new playing contract with Saudi Arabia's Al-Nasa. A little earlier, I spoke to our Portugal bureau chief, Sophia Otter E Costa, and I began by talking to her about Ronaldo's enormous success on and off the pitch during a glittering career of more than 20 years, and how he came to become football's first billionaire player.

现在，多产射手克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多做到了其他足球运动员从未做到的事情。根据彭博亿万富翁指数，他已经成为了一位亿万富翁，这得益于他与沙特阿拉伯的利雅得胜利队签订的新合同。稍早前，我与我们葡萄牙分社社长 Sophia Otter E Costa 进行了交谈，我们首先讨论了罗纳尔多在长达20多年的辉煌职业生涯中，无论是在场上还是场下所取得的巨大成功，以及他是如何成为足球界首位亿万富翁球员的。

Yes, hugely successful on the pitch. I mean, he has played for Europe's biggest teams, most famously Manchester United. He was very happy there. He made his name there, worked very closely with Sir Alex Ferguson and then his record transfer to Real Madrid. It was one of the biggest transfers uh in history at the time and then to Jventus, so a big Italian team. But I'm sitting here in Portugal and you know just for the national team, he's been incredibly important. He's still the captain at 40 years old, which is an incredible achievement. He's scoring in every single game that Portugal has played um recently in qualifications for the World Cup in the US. So, he's still very much at the top of his game. He's not won a World Cup. I think that kind of hurts him a little bit. He did win the Euros uh in 2016 for Portugal. Uh, but if we're talking about competition with Messi, that's one where the Argentinian player um has one up on Cristiano Ronaldo. an incredibly successful football player, the biggest goalcorer of all time amongst uh male football players.

是的，他在球场上取得了巨大的成功。我的意思是，他曾效力于欧洲最顶尖的俱乐部，最著名的是曼联。他在那里过得很开心。他在那里成名，与弗格森爵士紧密合作，然后创纪录地转会到皇家马德里。那在当时是历史上最大的一笔转会之一，之后又去了尤文图斯，一家意大利大俱乐部。但我就坐在葡萄牙这里，你知道，就国家队而言，他发挥了极其重要的作用。他40岁了，仍然是队长，这是一个了不起的成就。在葡萄牙最近参加美国世界杯预选赛的每一场比赛中，他都有进球。所以，他仍然处于竞技状态的巅峰。他还没有赢得世界杯。我认为这一点对他来说有点遗憾。他确实为葡萄牙赢得了2016年的欧洲杯冠军。但是，如果我们谈论与梅西的竞争，在这方面，这位阿根廷球员比克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多更胜一筹。他是一位极其成功的足球运动员，是有史以来进球最多的男子足球运动员。

Yeah. Incredible. And so how has all of that footballing success vaulted him well into billionaire status now? So it's very unusual and quite remarkable the way he's done this because unlike most athletes who get the bulk of their wealth from uh endorsements or you know in the case of tennis star Roger Federer it it came from a stake in the uh footwear company on um in Ronaldo's case the bulk of his earnings have come from actually playing football um and actually the majority of that um came with his moved to Saudi Arabia, which at the time a lot of people were criticizing that decision because, you know, he was going from Manchester United um and the and playing at really top level football to a very unknown league. Um you know, and even in Saudi Arabia wasn't the most successful team. Um but it's actually you know in the past 2 years since he's moved there he's really really kind of um shown what it what a player at the twilight of his career can do in terms of um you know gaining earnings. So it's really catapulted him into the top ranks of the richest sports people. and he's now just renewed his contract in June and we're hearing it's um worth about $400 million which really kind of just redefineses what you can do as a sports player.

是的，令人难以置信。那么，所有这些足球成就如何帮助他跻身亿万富翁行列呢？他实现这一点的方式非常不寻常且相当 remarkable，因为与大多数运动员通过代言获得大部分财富不同，或者就像网球明星罗杰·费德勒那样，是通过一家鞋业公司的股份获得财富，在罗纳尔多的情况下，他的大部分收入来自于实际踢足球，而且其中大部分是在他转会到沙特阿拉伯之后获得的。当时，很多人批评这个决定，因为你知道，他要离开曼联，去到一个非常不知名的联赛踢最高水平的足球。你知道，即使在沙特阿拉伯，那也不是最成功的球队。但是，你知道，在过去的两年里，自从他搬到那里之后，他真的……真的展示了一位处于职业生涯暮年的球员在赚取收入方面能做到什么。所以，这确实将他推向了最富有的体育明星行列。他刚刚在六月份续约，我们听说这份合同价值约4亿美元，这确实重新定义了一名体育运动员的可能性。

Yeah, absolutely. Net worth estimated in total for Ronaldo $1.4 billion. Look, we know there's pay inflation in the world of football. Obviously, my fellow Brits um you know, usually pretty obsessed with football and talk a lot about pay inflation. Um and so he's not the only super wealthy football star. He's not. And I'm going I'm going to start with Messi because everyone just likes comparing the two. Uh and obviously we're trying to figure out whether Messi is also a billionaire. In terms of football earnings, um Ronaldo is still uh earning more than Messi, but playing in the American League is uh has been very uh fruitful for Messi as well. He does also have a contract with Apple, a revenue sharing deal. Uh we don't know how much that's worth, so uh that could be quite significant for his wealth. Um but you know Saudi uh the Saudi league, the American uh so I mean I think we can call it soccer if we're talking about the US. It really um has shown what footballers who you know maybe they won everything they they could have done in Europe uh and now it's time to really kind of just um play in a different league but really make money for for what they do. Um, obviously Beckham, uh, we're talking about one of the most marketable footballers in history. He's done quite a lot for himself. Uh, but again, most of that was sponsorship, um, and using his image, his marketing um, progress for for his earnings. And as you said, you know, pay inflation has really changed since Beckham was playing. Um, yeah,

是的，绝对是。罗纳尔多的总净资产估计为14亿美元。你看，我们知道足球界存在薪资膨胀。当然，我的英国同胞们，你知道，通常非常痴迷足球，并且经常谈论薪资膨胀。所以，他不是唯一超级富有的足球明星。他不是。我将从梅西开始，因为每个人都喜欢将他们两人进行比较。显然，我们正在试图弄清楚梅西是否也是亿万富翁。就足球收入而言，罗纳尔多仍然比梅西赚得多，但效力于美国职业足球大联盟对梅西来说也非常有利。他还与苹果公司签订了一份收入分成协议。我们不知道这值多少钱，所以这可能对他财富的增长相当可观。但是，你知道，沙特……沙特联赛，美国……所以，我的意思是，如果我们谈论美国，我们可以称之为“soccer”。这真的……它确实展示了那些足球运动员，你知道，他们可能已经在欧洲赢得了他们能赢得的一切，现在是时候……真正地……在一个不同的联赛踢球，但真正地为他们的工作赚钱。嗯，当然，贝克汉姆，我们谈论的是历史上最具商业价值的足球运动员之一。他为自己做了很多。但是，同样，他的大部分收入来自于赞助，以及利用他的形象、他的营销……他的进步来获得收入。正如你所说，你知道，自从贝克汉姆踢球以来，薪资膨胀确实发生了变化。嗯，是的，

but yeah, Ronaldo is quite unique in that in that sense.

但是的，在这方面，罗纳尔多非常独特。

Yeah. And of course the football/sockcc audience is a global one isn't it? What do you think Ronaldo might do next? This is the fascinating question as we cover the the growing business of sport. I mean is it going to be investments um or some other line of business like we see other US sporting stars do?

是的。当然，足球/“soccer”的观众是全球性的，不是吗？你认为罗纳尔多接下来会做什么？这是我们关注体育产业不断发展的过程中一个引人入胜的问题。我的意思是，他会进行投资，还是会从事其他商业领域，就像我们看到其他美国体育明星所做的那样？

Yeah. So when you when he's asked uh what will he do when he retires, he gets quite irritated at that question because he says, you know, I'm not retiring yet. I'm still playing. I'm still playing at the top of my game. I'm still a football player. But obviously a lot of interest in uh around what he will do. Um the the Brazilian Ronaldo, the other Ronaldo, um he owns a Spanish football team. Um some some people think that u Cristiano Ronaldo might uh follow the same playbook. He has said that he would like to own not one but many football clubs after he retires. Um he does have a very strong relationship with a wealth manager based here in Portugal. So the thinking is maybe there'll be a family office structure. He has shown a preference to invest in his home country but so far they've been just small businesses um you know like paddle tennis uh courts and ceramics maker he does have a hotel interest here as well uh there will be a lot of interest though you know will he do he he just recently launched a YouTube channel is he going to move into that kind of media uh like Gary Lker did with his podcasting um business goalhanger sports that has been incredibly profitable for him. A lot of questions, but Ronaldo still very much says that he's a football footballer first and he can uh speak about what comes next uh once he does retire.

是的。所以，当被问到他退休后会做什么时，他会很不高兴，因为他说，“我还没退休呢。我还在比赛，我还在巅峰状态。我还是个足球运动员。”但是，显然，人们对他未来的动向很感兴趣。嗯，巴西的罗纳尔多，另一位罗纳尔多，他拥有一支西班牙足球队。嗯，有些人认为克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多可能会效仿。他曾表示，他退休后不仅想拥有一家足球俱乐部，还想拥有一批足球俱乐部。嗯，他与一位在葡萄牙的财富管理经理关系非常密切。所以，人们认为可能会有一个家族办公室结构。他倾向于投资他的祖国，但到目前为止，那只是一些小型企业，你知道，比如匹克球场和陶瓷制造商，他在那里也对酒店业感兴趣。但你知道，会有很多关注……他最近推出了一个 YouTube 频道，他是否会涉足媒体行业，就像 Gary Lineker 通过他的播客公司 Goalhanger Sports 所做的那样，这对他来说非常有利可图。有很多问题，但罗纳尔多仍然坚称他首先是一名足球运动员，而且他可以在退休后谈论接下来的事情。

This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

这里是彭博社欧洲晨报，为您带来从伦敦到华尔街及其他地区的早间新闻简报。

Look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning on London DAB radio, the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg.com.

每天早上，您可以在 Apple、Spotify 以及任何您获取播客的平台上的播客订阅源中找到我们。您还可以每早收听伦敦 DAB 广播、彭博商业应用程序和 Bloomberg.com 的直播。

Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say, "Alexa, play Bloomberg 11:30." I'm Caroline Hepka.

我们的旗舰纽约频道也适用于您的 Amazon Alexa 设备。只需说：“Alexa，播放 Bloomberg 11:30。” 我是 Caroline Hepka。

And I'm Steven Carroll. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.

我是 Steven Carroll。明天早上，请继续收听彭博社欧洲晨报，获取您开始新一天所需的所有新闻。

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