---
area: tech-engineering
category: ai-ml
companies_orgs: []
date: '2025-10-08'
draft: true
guest: ''
insight: ''
layout: post.njk
media_books:
- bloomberg-podcasts
products_models: []
project: []
series: ''
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgJj7eklY58
speaker: Bloomberg Podcasts
status: evergreen
summary: 本期节目聚焦金价飙升至4000美元/盎司的历史新高，法国总统马克龙面临国内政治挑战，以及C罗成为全球首位足球亿万富翁的财经新闻。
tags:
- cristiano-ronaldo
- france
- gold
title: 黄金突破4000美元，法国政局动荡，足球巨星成首位亿万富翁
---
### 市场焦点：黄金价格创历史新高

Music
Audio
Studios
podcasts
radio
news.

[Music]
Audio
Studios
podcasts
radio
news.

This
is
the
Bloomberg
Dayb
podcast.
Good
morning.
It's
Wednesday
the
8th
of
October.
I'm
Caroline
Hepka
in
London.

这是彭博社的 Daybreak 播客。早上好。今天是10月8日，星期三。我是伦敦的 Caroline Hepka。

>> and
I'm
Steven
Carol
in
Paris.
Coming
up
today,
the
price
of
gold
smashes
through
$4,000
an
ounce
for
the
first
time
as
US
government
shutdown
fears
fueled
a
safe
haven
rally.
With
just
hours
to
go
until
Emmanuel
Macron's
self-imposed
deadline,
French
opposition
parties
show
little
appetite
for
a
deal.

>> 我是巴黎的 Steven Carol。今天即将关注的重点包括：黄金价格首次突破每盎司4000美元，此前美国政府停摆的担忧推动了避险资产的上涨。距离法国总统马克龙设定的最后期限只剩下几个小时，法国反对党却对达成协议表现得兴趣寥寥。

>> Plus,
scoring
big,
Ronaldo
becomes
the
world's
first
football
billionaire
following
a
huge
Saudi
deal.

>> 此外，得分王：C罗在一笔巨额沙特交易后，成为世界上首位足球亿万富翁。

>> Let's
start
with
a
roundup
of
our
top
stories.
The
price
of
gold
has
topped
$4,000
an
ounce
for
the
first
time
in
history
as
concerns
over
the
US
economy
and
the
government
shutdown
added
fresh
momentum
to
a
scorching
rally.

>> 让我们先来回顾一下今天的主要新闻。黄金价格已创下历史新高，首次突破每盎司4000美元，此前对美国经济和政府停摆的担忧为这轮炽热的涨势增添了新的动力。

Uncertainties
over
global
trade,
geopolitical
tensions,
concerns
about
Fed
independence,
and
a
move
away
from
the
dollar
have
also
helped
to
fuel
the
rise
in
bullion,
which
traded
at
less
than
half
its
current
value
just
two
years
ago.
Angelina
Lie,
chief
investment
officer
for
Asia
in
the
Middle
East
at
St.
James's
Place.

全球贸易的不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势、对美联储独立性的担忧以及对美元的抛售，也助长了金价的上涨。仅仅在两年前，金价还不到目前的一半。St. James's Place 亚洲及中东地区首席投资官 Angelina Lie 表示：

What
we
are
really
seeing
is
a
flight
to
safety.
Um
we
tend
to
talk
about
gold
as
a
board
indicator
for
the
fear
and
greed
index
actually
because
there
is
no
cash
flow
attached
to
gold
and
for
a
organization
such
as
us
that
believes
in
valuation
and
fundamentals
as
a
basis.
It's
extremely
difficult
to
value
something
like
a
gold
which
does
not
have
cash
flows
attached
to
it.

“我们真正看到的是资金流向避险资产。我们倾向于将黄金视为‘恐惧与贪婪指数’的指标，因为它没有附带现金流。对于像我们这样相信估值和基本面是基础的机构来说，要为像黄金这样没有现金流的资产进行估值，是非常困难的。”

>> Aangela
lie
speaking
there.
Jumps
in
the
price
of
gold
typically
track
broader
economic
and
political
stress.
The
metal
climbed
above
$1,000
an
ounce
in
the
aftermath
of
the
global
financial
crisis,
$2,000
during
the
COVID
pandemic,
and
$3,000
as
the
Trump
administration's
tariff
plans
ripples
through
global
markets
in
March.
Now,
in
France,
there
are
just
hours
to
go
until
Emanuel
Macron's
deadline
for
parties
to
agree
to
work
together
on
a
budget.

>> Angelina Lie 刚刚的发言。黄金价格的飙升通常与更广泛的经济和政治压力同步。在2008年全球金融危机之后，黄金价格曾攀升至每盎司1000美元以上，在新冠疫情期间达到2000美元，并在3月份特朗普政府的关税计划扰乱全球市场时达到3000美元。现在，在法国，距离马克龙设定的政党就预算协议达成一致的最后期限只剩下几个小时了。

Opposition
parties
are
making
demands
including
their
choice
for
prime
minister,
fresh
elections
and
in
some
cases
the
president's
own
resignation.
The
outgoing
prime
minister
Sebastia
Lornu
will
continue
meetings
with
political
leaders
today.
Olivier
Fur
of
the
Socialist
Party
told
France
to
television
that
their
party
wants
the
prime
minister
from
their
ranks
and
not
new
elections.

反对党们正在提出各种要求，包括任命他们选择的总理、重新大选，甚至在某些情况下要求总统辞职。看守总理 Élisabeth Borne 将继续与各政党领导人会晤。社会党领袖 Olivier Faure 告诉 France 2 电视台，他们的党派希望总理来自他们的阵营，而不是重新大选。

I
want
the
left
to
govern.
I
don't
just
want
to
be
obsessed
with
what
now
also
obsesses
the
right,
that
is
the
presidential
election.
As
if
there
were
nothing
else.
And
the
French
people
who
see
this
shadow
play,
this
street
theater
day
after
day
are
saying
to
themselves,
are
you
finally
going
to
talk
about
us?

“我希望左翼能够执政。我不想像右翼那样，只关注总统选举，好像没有别的事情发生一样。而法国人民，他们每天看着这种政治角力、这种街头剧，他们对自己说，你们终于要谈论我们了吗？”

>> Socialist
party
leader
Olivier
for
speaking
there
via
a
translator.
President
Mau
gave
Sebastian
Lornu
until
this
evening
to
form
an
agreement
with
other
parties.
The
left
and
the
center
right
have
ruled
out
joining
forces
in
a
unity
cabinet,
but
sources
have
told
Bloomberg
that
the
Republican
party
might
be
willing
to
refrain
from
toppling
a
socialist
government
if
the
far-left
is
kept
out
of
power.

>> 社会党领袖 Olivier Faure 通过翻译发表了讲话。马克龙总统给了 Élisabeth Borne 直到今天晚上的时间，以与其他政党达成协议。左翼和中右翼已排除组建联合政府的可能性，但消息人士告诉彭博社，如果极左翼被排除在权力之外，共和党可能会愿意不推翻一个社会主义政府。

### 人工智能领域的巨额投资与潜在风险

>> Elon
Musk's
artificial
intelligence
startup
XAI
is
increasing
its
ongoing
funding
round
to
$20
billion.
In
the
latest
leg
of
the
AI
spending
boom,
Bloomberg
has
learned
that
XAI
is
accessing
more
financing
than
initially
planned,
including
$2
billion
from
Nvidia
to
finance
chips
for
its
Colossus
2
project.
It
comes
despite
billionaire
Elon
Musk
posting
on
X
in
September
that
he
was
not
raising
any
capital
right
now.

>> 埃隆·马斯克的人工智能初创公司 XAI 正在将其正在进行的融资轮增至200亿美元。在人工智能支出热潮的最新一轮中，彭博社获悉 XAI 正在获得比最初计划更多的融资，其中包括来自英伟达的20亿美元，用于为其 Colossus 2 项目提供芯片。这与马斯克在9月份在 X（前身为 Twitter）上发帖表示他目前不融资的说法相悖。

The
massive
financing
is
just
the
latest
for
the
tech
sector
this
year,
something
JP
Morgan
CEO
Jamie
Diamond
compared
to
the
dot
bubble.
It's
a
lot.
I'm
not
sure
it's
all
ever
going
to
be
totally
spent.
I
think
when
you
look
at
big
tech
like
tech
that
happens
like
this
and
you
go
look
at
cars,
you
look
at
television,
you
look
at
internet,
big
money's
got
spent,
there
were
a
lot
of
losers,
a
lot
of
winners
in
total
was
productive.
So
take
even
take
the
internet
bubble
remember
that
blew
up
and
amount
of
pe
I
can
you
and
I
could
probably
name
a
100
companies
that
you
know
were
worth
$50
billion
and
disappeared
but
out
of
it
came
Facebook,
YouTube,
Google
you
know
so
there
will
be
real
big
companies
with
real
big
success.
It
will
work
despite
the
fact
that
not
everyone
who
invests
in
it
is
going
to
have
a
great
investment
return.

这笔巨额融资是今年科技行业的最新一笔，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙将其比作互联网泡沫。“这笔钱太多了。我不确定它们最终是否都会被花掉。我认为，当你看看大型科技公司，看看科技行业发生的事情，就像汽车、电视、互联网一样，巨额资金已被投入，其中有很多失败者，也有很多赢家，总的来说是富有成效的。以互联网泡沫为例，你还记得它破灭了吗？我敢说我和你都能说出100家曾经价值500亿美元但却消失了的公司，但它也催生了Facebook、YouTube、Google。所以，将会出现真正的大公司，取得巨大的成功。即使不是每个投资者都能获得丰厚的回报，它也会成功。”

>> Jamie
Diamond
was
speaking
to
Bloomberg
at
JP
Morgan's
Tech
Stars
conference.
Despite
the
optimism,
many
are
looking
at
the
trillions
of
dollars
pledged
to
AI
infrastructure
and
asking
if
relationships
are
too
circular.
Today's
Bloomberg
Bigtake
looks
at
the
AI
race
with
one
analyst
telling
them
Sam
Oldman
has
the
power
to
crash
the
global
economy
for
a
decade
or
take
us
all
to
the
promised
land.

>> Jamie Dimon 在摩根大通的 Tech Stars 会议上向彭博社发表了讲话。尽管前景乐观，但许多人正在关注承诺用于人工智能基础设施的数万亿美元，并质疑这种关系是否过于循环。今天的彭博社“大视野”节目关注了人工智能竞赛，一位分析师告诉他们，Sam Altman （此处的 Sam Oldman 疑似口误）拥有让全球经济崩溃十年或将我们带入应许之地的能力。

### 加沙冲突与停火谈判

>> Now,
teams
from
the
US,
Qatar,
and
Israel
are
set
to
gather
in
Egypt
for
final
negotiations
to
end
the
war
in
Gaza.
Bloomberg
understands
that
officials
including
close
Netanyahu
adviser
Ron
Derma
and
US
special
envoy
Steve
Witkov
are
expected
to
take
part
in
negotiations.
Israeli
opposition
leader
Ya
Lid
says
he's
hoping
for
an
end
to
the
conflict.

>> 现在，来自美国、卡塔尔和以色列的团队将齐聚埃及，就结束加沙战争进行最终谈判。彭博社获悉，包括内塔尼亚胡的亲密顾问 Ron Dermer 和美国特使 Steve Witkov 在内的官员预计将参加谈判。以色列反对派领袖 Yair Lapid 表示，他希望冲突能够结束。

>> A
war
that
is
going
nowhere,
hostages
that
are
slowly
dying,
and
of
course
the
suffering
Gaza
that
everybody
in
his
right
mind
cares
about.
Children
should
not
die
in
grown-ups
wars.
Um,
so
for
everybody's
sake,
we
pray
for
this
to
end.

>> 一场毫无进展的战争，人质们在慢慢死去，当然还有加沙地区遭受的苦难，这是任何有正常思维的人都会关心的。孩子们不应该在成人的战争中死去。所以，为了大家，我们祈祷这一切能尽快结束。

>> Yay.
Lapid
there
speaking
to
Sky
News.
Hamas
spokesperson
Fuzzy
Bahum
said
a
permanent
ceasefire
and
withdrawal
of
Israeli
troops
must
be
central
to
a
deal
during
a
televised
address
on
Qatar
based
broadcaster
Al
Jazzer.
Qatar's
Prime
Minister
Shik
Muhammad
bin
Abdul
Raman
Alani
and
President
Trump's
son-in-law
Jared
Kushner
are
also
expected
to
attend
those
talks.

>> Yair Lapid 在那里对 Sky News 说道。哈马斯发言人 Fawzi Barhoum 在卡塔尔半岛电视台的一次电视讲话中表示，永久停火和以色列军队撤离必须是协议的核心。卡塔尔首相 Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani 和美国总统特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳预计也将出席这些会谈。

### 英国贫富差距拉大

>> The
gap
between
the
wealthy
and
the
average
British
worker
is
too
large
even
for
a
lifetime
of
savings
to
bridge.
The
Resolution
Foundation
think
tank
found
a
typical
full-time
employee
would
need
to
set
aside
around
52
years
worth
of
pay
to
reach
the
top
10%.
Bloomberg's
James
Wilco
has
more.
If
you
work
hard,
can
you
get
ahead?
The
Resolution
Foundation
say
the
answer
is
clear.
Not
anymore.
Their
research
says
in
Britain
since
2008,
if
you
owned
wealth,
you
saw
far
more
gains
than
from
a
paycheck.
They
add
the
intergenerational
wealth
gap
between
people
in
their
30s
and
people
in
their
60s
has
doubled
in
that
time
period.
Taxing
that
wealth
has
become
a
political
issue
with
those
on
the
left
pushing
Chancellor
Rachel
Reeves
to
do
more
to
balance
the
scales.
In
London,
James
Walco,
Bloomberg
Radio.
And
those
are
our
top
stories
for
you
this
morning.

>> 富裕阶层与普通英国工薪阶层之间的差距过大，即使终生储蓄也难以弥合。Resolution Foundation 智库的研究发现，一个典型的全职员工需要拿出大约52年的工资才能达到财富排名前10%的水平。彭博社的 James Wilco 带来更多报道。如果你努力工作，能取得进步吗？Resolution Foundation 表示答案很明确：现在不行了。他们的研究表明，自2008年以来，在英国，如果你拥有财富，你的收益远超薪水带来的收益。他们补充说，30多岁人群和60多岁人群之间的代际财富差距在此期间翻了一番。对财富征税已成为一个政治问题，左翼人士敦促财政大臣 Rachel Reeves 采取更多措施来平衡天平。这里是伦敦，彭博社广播，James Wilco 报道。以上是我们今天早上的主要新闻。

### 市场概览

Looking
at
the
markets,
spot
gold
is
now
trading
up
1%
again
this
morning,
$4,026.
Stocks
though
seeing
uh
more
declines
from
record
highs,
it
must
be
said.
MCI
Asia-Pacific
index
is
down
6/10en
of
1%.
Stock
futures
for
Europe
are
also
just
flat
this
morning.
S&P
500
e-
futures
uh
edging
upwards
a
tenth
of
1%.
Ray
Dalio
saying
the
stock
market
feels
frothy.
Mainland
China
and
South
Korean
markets
closed
for
holidays
today.
Today
the
Kiwis
dropped.
We
had
a
50
basis
point
RBNZ
rate
cut.
10-year
Treasury
yields
are
also
steady
this
morning,
trading
at
4.12%.
Those
are
the
markets.

关注市场，现货黄金今早再次上涨1%，报4026美元。然而，股市则从历史高位出现更多下跌。MSCI 亚太指数下跌了0.6%。欧洲股指期货今早也基本持平。标普500指数期货小幅上涨0.1%。Ray Dalio 表示，股市感觉有些过热。中国内地和韩国市场今天因节假日休市。新西兰元今日下跌，新西兰联储降息50个基点。10年期美国国债收益率今早也保持稳定，交投于4.12%。以上是市场情况。

### 深度解读：黄金的持续上涨

>> In
a
moment,
we'll
bring
you
more
on
gold's
glittering
run.
Plus,
where
next
for
Emanuel
Macron
and
some
reporting
from
our
Portugal
bureau
chief
that
you
won't
want
to
miss,
but
another
story
we've
been
reading
this
morning.
I
don't
know
how
much
time
you've
spent
analyzing
or
parsing
Taylor
Swift's
new
album,
but
you'd
be
pleased
to
know
that
Jason
Bailey
from
Blue
Opinion
has
been
on
the
case
as
well.
He's
been
looking
a
bit
at
the
numbers,
which
are
very
positive
about
the
album
drop
as
well,
but
also
the
mixed
reviews.
So
positive
from
some
leg
legacy
publications
but
some
mixed
reception
online
as
well
which
is
an
interesting
phenomenon
because
of
the
incredibly
um
I
don't
know
if
viferous
is
the
word
uh
support
of
Taylor
Swift
that
you
can
find
almost
everywhere
on
the
internet
and
also
the
risks
of
saying
anything
bad
about
Taylor
Swift
and
the
potential
for
being
cancelled
as
a
result.

>> 稍后，我们将为您带来更多关于黄金闪耀表现的报道。此外，法国总统马克龙的下一步动向，以及我们葡萄牙分社社长的报道，您一定不想错过。不过，今天早上我们还读到了另一则新闻。我不知道您花了多少时间分析或解读泰勒·斯威夫特的新专辑，但您可能会高兴地得知，Blue Opinion 的 Jason Bailey 也对此进行了研究。他看了一些数据，这些数据对于专辑的发布非常有利，但也反映了评价不一。一些传统媒体的评价是积极的，但网上也有一些评价不一，这是一个有趣的现象，因为你几乎可以在互联网上找到对泰勒·斯威夫特不可思议的……我不知道“猛烈”这个词是否恰当……支持，而且说任何关于泰勒·斯威夫特不好的话的风险，以及可能因此被“取消”的可能性。

>> She's
she's
a
billionaire.
She's
just
come
off
the
Smash
Eas
tour.
Um
she's
got
her
own
music
catalog
back.
Uh
just
got
engaged
obviously,
you
know,
she's
she's
powering
ahead.

>> 她是一位亿万富翁。她刚刚结束了“The Eras Tour”。她拿回了自己的音乐版权。显然，她也订婚了，你知道，她正在大步前进。

>> Yeah.
I
mean,
look,
and
and
lots
going
on
and
plenty
of
opinions
to
be
shared
apparently
about
it.
So
Jason's
been
digging
into
sort
of
the
release
strategy
and
whether
it
was
right
to
put
the
whole
album
out
at
the
same
time
with
the
video
for
the
fate
of
Aphilia
and
the
launch
watch
party
as
well.
May
perhaps
there
was
a
you
know
not
it
wasn't
the
traditional
playbook
for
how
you
know
big
new
releases
are
are
done.
Now,
of
course,
Taylor
Swift,
as
we
know,
forges
her
own
path
in
so
many
things.
So,
uh,
great
read
this
morning.
bloomberg.com/inion,
and
we'll
put
a
link
to
it
in
our
podcast
show
notes.

>> 是的。我的意思是，你看，事情很多，显然有很多意见可以分享。所以 Jason 正在深入研究发布策略，以及是否应该在同一时间发布整张专辑，并配上“The Fate of Afilias”的视频和发布派对。也许，你知道，这并不是传统的新发布方式。当然，我们都知道，泰勒·斯威夫特在很多事情上都走自己的路。所以，嗯，今天早上是一篇很棒的文章。您可以在 bloomberg.com/opinion 上阅读，我们会在播客的节目备注中提供链接。

>> Okay.
Well,
let's
think
about
what's
happening
in
the
markets.
The
spot
price
of
gold
smashing
through
$4,000
an
ounce
for
the
very
first
time
ever.
That
is
a
jump
of
more
than
50%
this
year.
Bloomberg's
markets
live
strategist
Mark
Cranfield
joins
us
now
for
more
on
this.
Mark,
come
on.
There
are
so
many
superlatives
about
this.
Put
it
into
context.
How
much
has
gold
rallied?

>> 好的。那么，我们来关注一下市场动态。现货黄金价格有史以来首次突破每盎司4000美元。今年迄今已上涨超过50%。彭博社的市场直播策略师 Mark Cranfield 现在加入我们，带来更多信息。Mark，说说看。关于这件事，有太多溢美之词了。能否将其置于背景中说明一下？黄金上涨了多少？

>> Yeah,
I
think
what
one
of
the
exciting
things
apart
from,
as
you
say,
the
that
50%
jump
is
the
speed
with
which
it
covered
the
last
$1,000
in
price.
So,
between
3,000
to
4,000.
He
did
that
in
around
7
months,
which
is
by
far
the
quickest
of
the
the
various
stages
of
um
rally
that
the
gold
has
had
over
its
life.
That
is
that
is
certainly
the
quickest
it's
covered
the
the
price
of
$1,000.
So
very
impressive,
much
quicker
than
it
was
between
2
and
3,000
for
example.
So
uh
yeah,
just
around
a
7
month
rally
and
you
would
have
earned
um
around
$1,000
if
you'd
have
been
involved
in
gold
at
that
time.
So
that's
something
to
take
into
account,
although
you
would
have
done
even
better
if
you'd
have
been
in
silver.
That's
rallied
about
60%
this
year.

>> 是的，我认为除了你说的50%的涨幅之外，最令人兴奋的一点是它以多快的速度完成了最后1000美元的价格上涨。从3000美元到4000美元，大约用了7个月的时间，这无疑是黄金在其历史上经历的各个上涨阶段中最快的一次。这绝对是它完成每1000美元价格上涨中最快的一次。所以非常令人印象深刻，比例如2000美元到3000美元之间要快得多。所以，是的，大约7个月的上涨，如果你当时投资了黄金，你将赚取大约1000美元。所以这一点需要考虑，尽管如果你投资了白银，你会做得更好，今年白银已经上涨了约60%。

>> Interesting.
Why
I
mean
is
the
short
the
short
question.
Why
have
we
gotten
to
this
stage?
um
it's
a
lot
to
to
do
with
what
other
currencies
are
doing
or
not
doing
and
also
the
the
geopolitics.
Several
things
have
have
fallen
into
place
that
support
gold
at
the
moment.
So
I
think
you
must
never
forget
although
people
describe
gold
as
a
metal,
it's
really
a
currency
because
it
is
exchangeable.
You
could
you
can
actually
take
a
gold
coin
and
you
can
get
cash
for
it
at
any
time.
And
so
what
we
have
at
the
moment
is
a
situation
where
the
euro
has
a
French
problem.
So
it's
not
so
popular.
The
yen,
as
you
know,
has
been
extremely
weak.
I'm
sure
you've
been
talking
about
that
a
lot
as
well
and
it's
just
got
weaker
with
this
potential
new
female
prime
minister
coming
in.
The
pound
is
a
bit
underwhelming
as
well.
It's
got
its
own
issues.
So
there
are
several
major
currencies.
New
Zealand
currency
is
getting
battered
today
with
the
with
the
rate
cut.
So
within
the
G10
space,
the
competitors
to
gold
are
not
having
a
great
time.
Even
the
dollar
is
losing
its
it's
still
the
largest
currency
by
reserve
managers,
but
that
share
is
falling.
So
even
the
dollar
is
being
undermined
a
bit.
So
all
of
that
supports
reasons
for
being
in
gold.
Then
you
have
the
general
geopolitical
situation
which
to
a
lot
of
investors
looks
more
unstable
this
year
than
it
has
for
many
many
years.
Again
that's
a
that's
a
positive
for
gold
and
the
low
interest
rate
environment
is
another
thing
as
well.
Gold
generally
does
well
when
interest
rates
are
on
a
downtrend
in
in
major
countries.
So
all
of
those
things
put
gold
in
a
in
a
good
position.
It
may
well
have
got
out
of
control.
It
may
be
there's
too
much
speculation
in
the
very
short
term.
It's
gone
too
far.
But
certainly
there
are
tangible
reasons
why
you
can
see
gold
is
being
seen
as
a
very
good
haven
in
this
environment.

>> 有趣。为什么……我的意思是，这是个简单的问题。为什么我们会达到这个阶段？这在很大程度上与其它货币的表现（或不表现）以及地缘政治有关。目前有几件事促成了黄金的上涨。所以，我认为你永远不能忘记，尽管人们将黄金描述为一种金属，但它实际上是一种货币，因为它具有交换性。你可以随时拿着一枚金币去兑换现金。所以，我们现在的情况是，欧元面临着法国的问题，因此不太受欢迎。日元，正如你所知，一直非常疲软。我敢肯定你已经多次谈论过这个问题，而且随着这位潜在的新女性总理的上任，日元变得更加疲软。英镑也有些令人失望，它也有自己的问题。所以，有几种主要的货币。新西兰货币今天因降息而受到重创。所以在 G10 货币范围内，黄金的竞争对手们日子都不好过。就连美元也在失去其……它仍然是储备管理机构手中的最大货币，但其份额正在下降。所以，就连美元也受到了一点侵蚀。所有这些都为投资黄金提供了理由。然后，你还有普遍的地缘政治局势，对许多投资者来说，今年的局势比多年来都要不稳定。这再次是黄金的利好因素，而低利率环境也是一个因素。通常情况下，当主要国家的利率呈下降趋势时，黄金表现良好。所以，所有这些因素都使黄金处于有利地位。它可能已经失控了。短期内可能存在过多的投机。它已经走得太远了。但肯定有一些切实的原因，可以解释为什么在这种环境下，黄金被视为一个非常好的避风港。

>> Yeah.
I
mean
and
at
times
of
stress
that
is
often
the
case.
But
as
you
point
out
where
does
it
go
from
here?
And
there
are
lots
of
views.
I
mean
from
Bridgewwater's
Ray
Dalio
to
Citell's
Ken
Griffin
the
Goldman
Sachs
forecast
to
the
end
of
next
year
there
are
lots
of
views
on
the
trajectory.
the
the
biggest
risk
to
it
in
the
near
term
is
that
it's
become
another
momentum
play.
Something
like
tech
stocks
in
America
and
around
the
world.
So
if
you
look
at
what
macro
traders
are
doing
at
the
moment,
some
of
their
biggest
positions
are
likely
to
be
long
of
AI
themes,
long
of
gold.
They
probably
were
short
US
dollar.
They're
starting
to
reverse
a
bit
now.
And
so
those
kind
of
positions
have
probably
got
very
large.
And
when
they
turn,
they're
probably
going
to
turn
together.
So
if
if
we
see
a
sharp
correction,
let's
say
this
earning
season
is
not
as
good
as
expected
in
the
United
States,
the
one
that's
just
started,
we
get
a
turn
in
the
stock
market
there,
you
will
probably
see
that
gold
will
follow
because
people
who
have
similar
positions
will
need
to
make
up
P&L
losses
because
of
what's
happening
in
a
different
asset
class.
So
that's
the
biggest
risk
to
gold
in
the
short
term.
The
other
the
factors
like
geopolitical
risk,
that's
probably
not
going
to
go
away
in
the
short
term.
other
currencies
would
need
to
prove
themselves
to
be
a
lot
better
to
get
people
to
give
up
their
gold
to.
So
if
there's
a
sudden
dramatic
change
in
Europe
where
France
looks
a
bit
a
lot
better
place,
Europe's
getting
sacked
together
and
suddenly
the
euro
is
very
strong
that
would
hurt
gold
as
well.

>> 是的。我的意思是，在压力时期，情况往往如此。但正如你所指出的，接下来会怎样？有很多观点。从 Bridgewater 的 Ray Dalio 到 Citadel 的 Ken Griffin，以及高盛对明年年底的预测，都有很多关于其轨迹的看法。在短期内，它面临的最大风险是它已经成为另一种动量交易。就像美国和世界各地的科技股一样。所以，如果你看看宏观交易员们现在在做什么，他们一些最大的头寸可能是看好人工智能主题、看好黄金。他们可能曾做空美元。现在他们开始有所回调。所以，这类头寸可能已经变得非常大。当它们反转时，它们很可能会一起反转。所以，如果我们看到一个急剧的回调，比如说，在美国刚刚开始的这个财报季不如预期，美股市场出现反转，你可能会看到黄金也会随之 V 型反弹，因为持有类似头寸的人将不得不弥补因其他资产类别发生的事情造成的损益损失。所以，这是黄金短期内面临的最大风险。其他因素，如地缘政治风险，短期内可能不会消失。其他货币需要证明自己好得多，才能让人们放弃黄金。所以，如果欧洲出现突然的、戏剧性的变化，法国看起来好转很多，欧洲团结起来，欧元突然变得非常强势，那也会损害黄金。

>> Very
interesting.
Yeah,
the
risks
and
rewards.
Mark
Cranfield,
thanks
for
being
with
us.
Pinnberg's
markets
live
strategist.

>> 非常有趣。是的，风险与回报。Mark Cranfield，感谢您的参与。彭博社的市场直播策略师。

### 法国政治僵局：马克龙的困境

>> Well,
we're
counting
down
to
the
next
political
deadline
here
in
France
as
outgoing
Prime
Minister
Sebastian
Lornu
tries
to
build
support
for
his
budget
plans.
President
Mron
has
given
him
until
this
evening
to
make
progress.
Our
managing
editor
for
European
Economics
and
Government,
Ben
SS,
joins
us
now
for
more.
Ben,
good
morning.
Sebastian,
good
morning.
Meeting
the
Socialist
Party
leadership
today.
Are
they
the
key
to
his
success
in
this
mission?

>> 好了，我们在法国这里正倒数着下一个政治死线，因为即将卸任的总理 Élisabeth Borne 正试图争取对她的预算计划的支持。马克龙总统已给她直到今天晚上的时间来取得进展。我们的欧洲经济与政府管理编辑 Ben SS 现在加入我们，带来更多信息。Ben，早上好。Élisabeth，早上好。今天与社会党领导层会晤。他们是她完成这项任务的关键吗？

>> Yeah,
they
really
are.
the
way
the
kind
of
complicated
mathematics
of
of
the
of
the
French
parliament
works
out.
Macron's
weak
centrist
group
has
got
a
relatively
uh
and
I
use
that
word
advisedly,
a
relatively
stable
alliance
with
the
with
the
center-right
Republicans.
They
have
got
the
far
right
national
rally
of
Marine
the
Pen
in
fairly
entrenched
opposition.
And
the
key
to
forming
a
majority
is
to
persuade
the
socialists
to
break
away
from
the
far-left
group
and
join
a
join
a
kind
of
centrist
alliance,
but
so
far
they
failed
to
do
it.

>> 是的，他们确实是。法国议会的复杂数学运作方式是这样的：马克龙的弱势中间派团体与中右翼共和党人结成了相对……我慎重使用这个词，相对稳定的联盟。他们面临着马琳·勒庞领导的极右翼国民联盟的相当顽固的反对。而组建多数派的关键在于说服社会党脱离极左翼集团，加入一个中间派联盟，但到目前为止，他们未能做到这一点。

>> Well,
some
parties
are
already
preparing
for
National
Assembly
elections.
How
likely
do
you
think
that
that
is
at
this
point?

>> 那么，有些政党已经在为国民议会选举做准备了。你认为在这一点上，这种可能性有多大？

>> It's
pretty
likely.
The
basic
situation
is
that
none
of
the
options
look
good
for
Macron
to
get
the
socialists
on
board.
he's
almost
certainly
going
to
have
to
compromise
on
some
key
elements
of
his
uh
of
his
platform,
whether
that
means
raising
taxes
or
rolling
back
his
pension
reform,
something
like
that,
which
would
be
a
major
a
major
retreat
for
Macron.
Um,
but
if
he
doesn't
do
that,
calling
an
election
for
the
parliament,
it
risks
making
things
worse
for
him.
the
national
rally
is
most
likely
to
gain
in
that
situation,
but
he's
really
kind
of
running
out
of
options
to
try
and
find
other
people
who
can
who
can
put
together
a
a
functioning
government
just
because
the
parliamentary
matters
is
so
complicated.

>> 可能性很大。基本情况是，没有哪种选择对马克龙来说能让社会党人信服。他几乎肯定不得不妥协他的一些关键政纲，无论是提高税收还是撤销他的养老金改革，等等，这将是马克龙的一次重大、重大的退步。但是，如果他不这样做，就提前举行议会选举，这可能会让他处境更加糟糕。在这种情况下，国民联盟最有可能获胜。但他确实是黔驴技穷，很难找到其他人能够组建一个运作正常的政府，因为议会事务实在太复杂了。

>> Some
of
Macron's
close
allies
also
appear
to
be
keen
to
distance
themselves
from
the
president.
You
mentioned
the
pension
reforms
there.
It's
been
hugely
controversial.
another
former
prime
minister,
Elizabeth
Bne
coming
out
saying
that
she's
in
favor
of
suspending
the
pension
reforms
now,
which
is
a
certain
uh
change
in
her
position
from
when
she
was
in
the
Macron
uh
when
she
was
prime
minister,
she's
still
a
minister
in
the
outgoing
cabinet
now.
Does
all
of
this
add
to
the
sense
that
Macron
really
is
a
lame
duck
president
now?
even
though
he
has
18
months
left
on
his
term.

>> 马克龙的一些亲密盟友似乎也急于与总统划清界限。你刚才提到了养老金改革，这引起了巨大的争议。另一位前总理 Élisabeth Borne 公开表示，她现在支持暂停养老金改革，这与她担任马克龙政府总理时的立场截然不同。她现在仍然是看守内阁的一员。所有这些是否都加剧了人们的看法，即马克龙现在确实是一位跛脚鸭总统？尽管他还有18个月的任期。

>> By
by
any
standard
measure,
Macron
is
definitely
a
lame
duck
and
he
probably
has
been
for
a
year
or
so
now
since
since
the
um
since
the
parliamentary
elections
um
last
summer
which
which
triggered
this
this
gridlock.
That
said,
Macron
is
an
exceptional
politician
and
he
has
been
extremely
active
and
quite
effective
on
the
international
stage
over
the
last
year
or
so,
particularly
the
last
seven
or
eight
months
since
since
Trump
returned
to
power.
He's
got
a
relationship
with
Donald
Trump.
Relationships
with
Donald
Trump
are
one
of
the
fundamental
assets
in
the
world
in
which
we
live.
And
so
he's,
you
know,
he's
been
effective,
but
his
ability
to
shake
domestic
politics
is
extremely
limited
and
he's
extremely
unpopular.
So
we're
very
much
kind
of
in
the
countdown,
like
the
final
chapter
of
the
Macron
presidency,
that's
for
sure.

>> 按照任何标准衡量，马克龙无疑是一位跛脚鸭总统，而且自从去年夏天议会选举导致这种僵局以来，他可能已经这样一年左右了。尽管如此，马克龙是一位杰出的政治家，在过去一年左右的时间里，尤其是在特朗普上台后的过去七八个月里，他在国际舞台上一直非常活跃且相当有效。他与唐纳德·特朗普保持着关系。与唐纳德·特朗普的关系是我们当今世界的基本资产之一。所以，你知道，他一直很有效，但他影响国内政治的能力非常有限，而且他非常不受欢迎。所以，我们基本上是在倒计时，就像马克龙总统任期的最后一章一样，这一点毋庸置疑。

>> Okay,
Ben,
it's
a
very
uh
interesting
moment
then
in
French
politics.
Ben
SS,
our
managing
editor
for
European
Economy
and
Government.
Thank
you.
Stay
with
us.
More
from
Bloomberg
Daybreak
Europe
coming
up
after
this.

>> 好的，Ben，这确实是法国政治中一个非常有趣的时刻。感谢 Ben SS，我们的欧洲经济与政府管理主编。请继续关注。稍后将有更多来自彭博社欧洲晨报的节目。

### 足球巨星C罗：首位亿万富翁球员

Now,
prolific
goalcorer
Cristiano
Ronaldo
has
done
something
no
other
footballer
has
managed.
He
has
become
a
billionaire
according
to
the
Bloomberg
billionaires
index
thanks
to
a
new
playing
contract
with
Saudi
Arabia's
Al-Nasa.
A
little
earlier,
I
spoke
to
our
Portugal
bureau
chief,
Sophia
Otter
E
Costa,
and
I
began
by
talking
to
her
about
Ronaldo's
enormous
success
on
and
off
the
pitch
during
a
glittering
career
of
more
than
20
years,
and
how
he
came
to
become
football's
first
billionaire
player.

现在，多产射手克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多做到了其他足球运动员从未做到的事情。根据彭博亿万富翁指数，他已经成为了一位亿万富翁，这得益于他与沙特阿拉伯的利雅得胜利队签订的新合同。稍早前，我与我们葡萄牙分社社长 Sophia Otter E Costa 进行了交谈，我们首先讨论了罗纳尔多在长达20多年的辉煌职业生涯中，无论是在场上还是场下所取得的巨大成功，以及他是如何成为足球界首位亿万富翁球员的。

>> Yes,
hugely
successful
on
the
pitch.
I
mean,
he
has
played
for
Europe's
biggest
teams,
most
famously
Manchester
United.
He
was
very
happy
there.
He
made
his
name
there,
worked
very
closely
with
Sir
Alex
Ferguson
and
then
his
record
transfer
to
Real
Madrid.
It
was
one
of
the
biggest
transfers
uh
in
history
at
the
time
and
then
to
Jventus,
so
a
big
Italian
team.
But
I'm
sitting
here
in
Portugal
and
you
know
just
for
the
national
team,
he's
been
incredibly
important.
He's
still
the
captain
at
40
years
old,
which
is
an
incredible
achievement.
He's
scoring
in
every
single
game
that
Portugal
has
played
um
recently
in
qualifications
for
the
World
Cup
in
the
US.
So,
he's
still
very
much
at
the
top
of
his
game.
He's
not
won
a
World
Cup.
I
think
that
kind
of
hurts
him
a
little
bit.
He
did
win
the
Euros
uh
in
2016
for
Portugal.
Uh,
but
if
we're
talking
about
competition
with
Messi,
that's
one
where
the
Argentinian
player
um
has
one
up
on
Cristiano
Ronaldo.
an
incredibly
successful
football
player,
the
biggest
goalcorer
of
all
time
amongst
uh
male
football
players.

>> 是的，他在球场上取得了巨大的成功。我的意思是，他曾效力于欧洲最顶尖的俱乐部，最著名的是曼联。他在那里过得很开心。他在那里成名，与弗格森爵士紧密合作，然后创纪录地转会到皇家马德里。那在当时是历史上最大的一笔转会之一，之后又去了尤文图斯，一家意大利大俱乐部。但我就坐在葡萄牙这里，你知道，就国家队而言，他发挥了极其重要的作用。他40岁了，仍然是队长，这是一个了不起的成就。在葡萄牙最近参加美国世界杯预选赛的每一场比赛中，他都有进球。所以，他仍然处于竞技状态的巅峰。他还没有赢得世界杯。我认为这一点对他来说有点遗憾。他确实为葡萄牙赢得了2016年的欧洲杯冠军。但是，如果我们谈论与梅西的竞争，在这方面，这位阿根廷球员比克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多更胜一筹。他是一位极其成功的足球运动员，是有史以来进球最多的男子足球运动员。

>> Yeah.
Incredible.
And
so
how
has
all
of
that
footballing
success
vaulted
him
well
into
billionaire
status
now?
So
it's
very
unusual
and
quite
remarkable
the
way
he's
done
this
because
unlike
most
athletes
who
get
the
bulk
of
their
wealth
from
uh
endorsements
or
you
know
in
the
case
of
tennis
star
Roger
Federer
it
it
came
from
a
stake
in
the
uh
footwear
company
on
um
in
Ronaldo's
case
the
bulk
of
his
earnings
have
come
from
actually
playing
football
um
and
actually
the
majority
of
that
um
came
with
his
moved
to
Saudi
Arabia,
which
at
the
time
a
lot
of
people
were
criticizing
that
decision
because,
you
know,
he
was
going
from
Manchester
United
um
and
the
and
playing
at
really
top
level
football
to
a
very
unknown
league.
Um
you
know,
and
even
in
Saudi
Arabia
wasn't
the
most
successful
team.
Um
but
it's
actually
you
know
in
the
past
2
years
since
he's
moved
there
he's
really
really
kind
of
um
shown
what
it
what
a
player
at
the
twilight
of
his
career
can
do
in
terms
of
um
you
know
gaining
earnings.
So
it's
really
catapulted
him
into
the
top
ranks
of
the
richest
sports
people.
and
he's
now
just
renewed
his
contract
in
June
and
we're
hearing
it's
um
worth
about
$400
million
which
really
kind
of
just
redefineses
what
you
can
do
as
a
sports
player.

>> 是的，令人难以置信。那么，所有这些足球成就如何帮助他跻身亿万富翁行列呢？他实现这一点的方式非常不寻常且相当 remarkable，因为与大多数运动员通过代言获得大部分财富不同，或者就像网球明星罗杰·费德勒那样，是通过一家鞋业公司的股份获得财富，在罗纳尔多的情况下，他的大部分收入来自于实际踢足球，而且其中大部分是在他转会到沙特阿拉伯之后获得的。当时，很多人批评这个决定，因为你知道，他要离开曼联，去到一个非常不知名的联赛踢最高水平的足球。你知道，即使在沙特阿拉伯，那也不是最成功的球队。但是，你知道，在过去的两年里，自从他搬到那里之后，他真的……真的展示了一位处于职业生涯暮年的球员在赚取收入方面能做到什么。所以，这确实将他推向了最富有的体育明星行列。他刚刚在六月份续约，我们听说这份合同价值约4亿美元，这确实重新定义了一名体育运动员的可能性。

>> Yeah,
absolutely.
Net
worth
estimated
in
total
for
Ronaldo
$1.4
billion.
Look,
we
know
there's
pay
inflation
in
the
world
of
football.
Obviously,
my
fellow
Brits
um
you
know,
usually
pretty
obsessed
with
football
and
talk
a
lot
about
pay
inflation.
Um
and
so
he's
not
the
only
super
wealthy
football
star.
He's
not.
And
I'm
going
I'm
going
to
start
with
Messi
because
everyone
just
likes
comparing
the
two.
Uh
and
obviously
we're
trying
to
figure
out
whether
Messi
is
also
a
billionaire.
In
terms
of
football
earnings,
um
Ronaldo
is
still
uh
earning
more
than
Messi,
but
playing
in
the
American
League
is
uh
has
been
very
uh
fruitful
for
Messi
as
well.
He
does
also
have
a
contract
with
Apple,
a
revenue
sharing
deal.
Uh
we
don't
know
how
much
that's
worth,
so
uh
that
could
be
quite
significant
for
his
wealth.
Um
but
you
know
Saudi
uh
the
Saudi
league,
the
American
uh
so
I
mean
I
think
we
can
call
it
soccer
if
we're
talking
about
the
US.
It
really
um
has
shown
what
footballers
who
you
know
maybe
they
won
everything
they
they
could
have
done
in
Europe
uh
and
now
it's
time
to
really
kind
of
just
um
play
in
a
different
league
but
really
make
money
for
for
what
they
do.
Um,
obviously
Beckham,
uh,
we're
talking
about
one
of
the
most
marketable
footballers
in
history.
He's
done
quite
a
lot
for
himself.
Uh,
but
again,
most
of
that
was
sponsorship,
um,
and
using
his
image,
his
marketing
um,
progress
for
for
his
earnings.
And
as
you
said,
you
know,
pay
inflation
has
really
changed
since
Beckham
was
playing.
Um,
yeah,

>> 是的，绝对是。罗纳尔多的总净资产估计为14亿美元。你看，我们知道足球界存在薪资膨胀。当然，我的英国同胞们，你知道，通常非常痴迷足球，并且经常谈论薪资膨胀。所以，他不是唯一超级富有的足球明星。他不是。我将从梅西开始，因为每个人都喜欢将他们两人进行比较。显然，我们正在试图弄清楚梅西是否也是亿万富翁。就足球收入而言，罗纳尔多仍然比梅西赚得多，但效力于美国职业足球大联盟对梅西来说也非常有利。他还与苹果公司签订了一份收入分成协议。我们不知道这值多少钱，所以这可能对他财富的增长相当可观。但是，你知道，沙特……沙特联赛，美国……所以，我的意思是，如果我们谈论美国，我们可以称之为“soccer”。这真的……它确实展示了那些足球运动员，你知道，他们可能已经在欧洲赢得了他们能赢得的一切，现在是时候……真正地……在一个不同的联赛踢球，但真正地为他们的工作赚钱。嗯，当然，贝克汉姆，我们谈论的是历史上最具商业价值的足球运动员之一。他为自己做了很多。但是，同样，他的大部分收入来自于赞助，以及利用他的形象、他的营销……他的进步来获得收入。正如你所说，你知道，自从贝克汉姆踢球以来，薪资膨胀确实发生了变化。嗯，是的，

>> but
yeah,
Ronaldo
is
quite
unique
in
that
in
that
sense.

>> 但是的，在这方面，罗纳尔多非常独特。

>> Yeah.
And
of
course
the
football/sockcc
audience
is
a
global
one
isn't
it?
What
do
you
think
Ronaldo
might
do
next?
This
is
the
fascinating
question
as
we
cover
the
the
growing
business
of
sport.
I
mean
is
it
going
to
be
investments
um
or
some
other
line
of
business
like
we
see
other
US
sporting
stars
do?

>> 是的。当然，足球/“soccer”的观众是全球性的，不是吗？你认为罗纳尔多接下来会做什么？这是我们关注体育产业不断发展的过程中一个引人入胜的问题。我的意思是，他会进行投资，还是会从事其他商业领域，就像我们看到其他美国体育明星所做的那样？

>> Yeah.
So
when
you
when
he's
asked
uh
what
will
he
do
when
he
retires,
he
gets
quite
irritated
at
that
question
because
he
says,
you
know,
I'm
not
retiring
yet.
I'm
still
playing.
I'm
still
playing
at
the
top
of
my
game.
I'm
still
a
football
player.
But
obviously
a
lot
of
interest
in
uh
around
what
he
will
do.
Um
the
the
Brazilian
Ronaldo,
the
other
Ronaldo,
um
he
owns
a
Spanish
football
team.
Um
some
some
people
think
that
u
Cristiano
Ronaldo
might
uh
follow
the
same
playbook.
He
has
said
that
he
would
like
to
own
not
one
but
many
football
clubs
after
he
retires.
Um
he
does
have
a
very
strong
relationship
with
a
wealth
manager
based
here
in
Portugal.
So
the
thinking
is
maybe
there'll
be
a
family
office
structure.
He
has
shown
a
preference
to
invest
in
his
home
country
but
so
far
they've
been
just
small
businesses
um
you
know
like
paddle
tennis
uh
courts
and
ceramics
maker
he
does
have
a
hotel
interest
here
as
well
uh
there
will
be
a
lot
of
interest
though
you
know
will
he
do
he
he
just
recently
launched
a
YouTube
channel
is
he
going
to
move
into
that
kind
of
media
uh
like
Gary
Lker
did
with
his
podcasting
um
business
goalhanger
sports
that
has
been
incredibly
profitable
for
him.
A
lot
of
questions,
but
Ronaldo
still
very
much
says
that
he's
a
football
footballer
first
and
he
can
uh
speak
about
what
comes
next
uh
once
he
does
retire.

>> 是的。所以，当被问到他退休后会做什么时，他会很不高兴，因为他说，“我还没退休呢。我还在比赛，我还在巅峰状态。我还是个足球运动员。”但是，显然，人们对他未来的动向很感兴趣。嗯，巴西的罗纳尔多，另一位罗纳尔多，他拥有一支西班牙足球队。嗯，有些人认为克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多可能会效仿。他曾表示，他退休后不仅想拥有一家足球俱乐部，还想拥有一批足球俱乐部。嗯，他与一位在葡萄牙的财富管理经理关系非常密切。所以，人们认为可能会有一个家族办公室结构。他倾向于投资他的祖国，但到目前为止，那只是一些小型企业，你知道，比如匹克球场和陶瓷制造商，他在那里也对酒店业感兴趣。但你知道，会有很多关注……他最近推出了一个 YouTube 频道，他是否会涉足媒体行业，就像 Gary Lineker 通过他的播客公司 Goalhanger Sports 所做的那样，这对他来说非常有利可图。有很多问题，但罗纳尔多仍然坚称他首先是一名足球运动员，而且他可以在退休后谈论接下来的事情。

>> This
is
Bloomberg
Daybreak
Europe,
your
morning
brief
on
the
stories
making
news
from
London
to
Wall
Street
and
beyond.

>> 这里是彭博社欧洲晨报，为您带来从伦敦到华尔街及其他地区的早间新闻简报。

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here
on
Bloomberg
Daybreak
Europe.

>> 我是 Steven Carroll。明天早上，请继续收听彭博社欧洲晨报，获取您开始新一天所需的所有新闻。

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