法国政治局势分析

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The outgoing Prime Minister Sebastian Lonu meeting the Socialist Party this morning. Then the Greens and the Communist Party as well as he's trying to discuss or build support for his budget plans.

现任总理塞巴斯蒂安·洛努今天上午会见了社会党，随后是绿党和共产党，他正试图讨论或争取对其预算计划的支持。

投资者视角下的法国资产风险

As we count down to that deadline though, I want to get the perspective of Christopher Dembeck, senior investment manager at Pday Asset Management. Chris, great to see you. Thanks very much for joining us this morning.

在倒计时之际，我想听听Pday资产管理公司的高级投资经理克里斯托弗·德姆贝克的观点。克里斯，很高兴见到你。非常感谢你今天早上加入我们。

From your point of view, I mean, how do you view this uncertainty in terms of framing for French assets?

从你的角度来看，你如何看待这种不确定性对法国资产的影响？

Well, I don't see it as a big risk. Uh, I think over the past two years, we have seen that the French economy is not performing quite well, mostly due to the political situation.

嗯，我认为这不是一个巨大的风险。在过去两年里，我们已经看到法国经济表现不佳，这主要是由于政治局势。

Uh, we all expect uncertainty, political uncertainty will last at least until the next presidential election. So, we have until 2027.

我们都预计这种不确定性，政治不确定性，至少会持续到下一次总统大选。所以，我们还有直到2027年的时间。

I'm very pessimistic regarding the outcome of a negotiation tonight. Um I have some contacts in the government and apparently the bet is that we will have a new election uh in November potentially but even if we this happen I don't think it will solve the situation.

我对今晚谈判的结果非常悲观。我有一些政府内部的联系人，据称目前的赌注是，我们可能会在11月举行新的选举，但即使这种情况发生，我认为它也无法解决当前的局势。

So for most investors or even when you talk with companies anyone knows that the situation won't get better anytime soon. So we are getting used to this.

所以，对大多数投资者而言，甚至当你与企业交流时，任何人都知道情况短期内不会好转。所以我们正在习惯这种情况。

Uh I had recently talks with French investors that own French debt in quite large quantity. What they told me is they are not afraid at all because basically over the past two years they have reduced the exposure to French assets.

我最近与一些持有大量法国国债的法国投资者进行了交流。他们告诉我，他们一点也不害怕，因为在过去两年里，他们已经降低了对法国资产的敞口。

So everything has already happened and I guess I'm not the only one pessimistic but most of the French business community is nowadays.

所以，一切都已经发生了。我想我不是唯一一个悲观的人，如今大多数法国商界人士也是如此。

不同情景下的投资者偏好

So I mean, is there a worst case scenario then if if things play out I mean, does having the socialist party in a government now and not elections is that better than having elections from an investor point of view? I mean, how do you look at the various scenarios?

那么，如果情况发展下去，是否存在最坏的设想？也就是说，从投资者的角度来看，现在由社会党组成政府而不是举行选举，是否比举行选举更好？你如何看待各种情景？

Well, from an investor point of view, I think the best is to have new election or a technical government.

嗯，从投资者的角度来看，我认为最好的情况是举行新的选举或组建技术政府。

Uh we are all quite afraid if we have a socialist or far-left government. Obviously, um I think one of the biggest issue with the left is that they consider the French economy is in quite good shape. But as a matter of fact, if you look at economic activity, we might be around 0.5% this year.

我们都非常担心如果出现社会党或极左翼政府。显然，我认为左翼最大的问题之一是，他们认为法国经济状况良好。但事实上，如果你看看经济活动，今年我们可能只有0.5%的增长。

Um and they want to increase taxation. You know, you have all the discussion how to increase much more taxation. I don't think this is the right way to deal with the situation. Um but if we have a left government with or without obvious support from the far left, I think it's not good for the economy.

他们还想增加税收。你知道，你们讨论了很多如何大幅增加税收的问题。我不认为这是应对当前局势的正确方法。但是，如果出现左翼政府，无论是否得到极左翼的明显支持，我认为这对经济都不利。

So most of investors are quite afraid on taxation level is already quite high in France.

所以，大多数投资者都非常担心，因为法国的税收水平已经相当高了。

对养老金改革的看法

One of the key comments we've been watching this morning is from former Prime Minister Elizabeth Bond, someone who who brought the the pension reforms uh through parliament when she was prime minister. She's now saying that she could be in favor of suspending that reform. I mean, what what's your view on on that proposal?

今天早上我们看到的一个关键评论来自前总理伊丽莎白·博恩，她曾在担任总理期间推动了养老金改革通过议会。她现在表示，她可能支持暂停该改革。你如何看待这个提议？

Well, it's a complete nonsense. Nowadays, we have in terms of public deficit, it will be around 5.4% of GDP, which is one of the worst in the European Union.

嗯，这完全是胡说八道。目前，在公共赤字方面，将达到GDP的5.4%左右，这是欧盟中最糟糕的之一。

So, let's say that you suspend the reform, you need to find according to my assessment, you need to find every year between 20 and 30 billion euro more. So, where do you find it? I mean, we're unable even to reduce the deficit at all. So if you suspend the reform only for political purpose, the issue is that at the end of the day your deficit will keep increasing.

所以，假设你暂停改革，根据我的评估，你每年需要额外找到200到300亿欧元。那么，你从哪里找呢？我的意思是，我们甚至无法减少赤字。所以，如果你仅仅为了政治目的而暂停改革，那么问题在于，最终你的赤字将继续增加。

So yes, clearly the investors or you don't have speculative attack against the French debt. But right now we don't know if it will happen. You know in the bond market everything can fall down very fast. So nowadays it's very quiet. I expect it will remain like that. But let's say that we suspend the bond the pension reform. No one knows what going to happen on the bond market. So you could have speculative attacks against French assets. So that's that's why I think it's really not wise.

所以，是的，很明显投资者，或者说，你并没有受到针对法国国债的投机攻击。但现在我们不知道这是否会发生。你知道，在债券市场，一切都可能很快崩溃。所以现在很平静。我预计会保持这样。但是，假设我们暂停养老金改革。没有人知道债券市场会发生什么。所以你可能会面临针对法国资产的投机攻击。所以，这就是为什么我认为这真的不明智。

债券收益率与评级展望

What sort of move would that mean in terms of yields or or the spread with Germany?

那在收益率或与德国的息差方面，会是什么样的变动？

Well, let's say we're around for the 10 year bond market for the French government bonds, we are around 3.5 3.7% which might be the top. If we jump around 4%, it will be already quite challenging. you know I mean we have seen it for Greece and I don't compare France with Greece but from one moment to another almost overnight everything can fall down so that's why I think we need to be very careful and obviously foreign investors they don't look at all the reforms that France is implementing but we all know that we need to be very wise regarding the pension reform so we need to be careful and if we suspend it well let's say let's be uh very transparent it's not a suspension it means that we will just cancel the reform so we will sooner or later a new debate about it. So it's not the right solution to deal with the situation and I think from a political point of view. It was not already enough to do this reform. So we cannot get back to this.

好吧，我们来看10年期法国国债市场，我们目前大约在3.5%到3.7%之间，这可能是一个峰值。如果跃升至4%左右，那将相当具有挑战性。你知道，我们曾在希腊看到过这种情况，我不将法国与希腊相提并论，但从某个时刻到另一个时刻，几乎是一夜之间，一切都可能崩溃。所以，这就是为什么我认为我们需要非常小心。显然，外国投资者并不关注法国正在实施的所有改革，但我们都知道，在养老金改革方面，我们需要非常明智，所以我们需要谨慎。如果我们暂停它，那么，让我们非常坦诚地说，这不是暂停，这意味着我们将取消改革，所以我们迟早会就此展开新的辩论。所以，这不是应对当前局势的正确解决方案。而且我认为从政治角度来看，这项改革本身就已经不够了。所以我们不能回到这个起点。

养老金支出是最大的财政风险吗？

Is that the is is the spending the pension war the biggest risk to the fiscal outlook now?

那么，养老金支出现在是财政前景最大的风险吗？

Yes. I mean, if you look from 2017 half of increase of public debt is only due to the pension. So, we need to deal with that. It's not enough what we have done over the past few years. So sooner or later we'll need to deal with that.

是的。我的意思是，如果你看看从2017年开始，公共债务增加的一半仅仅是由于养老金。所以，我们需要处理这个问题。过去几年我们所做的还不够。所以，迟早我们需要处理它。

Um if we have a left government obviously we won't deal with this situation because the left consider that there is no pension reform issue. So what is striking is that for some politician in France nowadays it's like France is a complete uh is a country where all the rules of economics does not apply. Although their countries are nowadays uh implementing pension reform.

如果出现左翼政府，我们显然不会处理这种情况，因为左翼认为不存在养老金改革问题。所以，令人震惊的是，对于法国的一些政治家来说，现在的情况就像法国是一个经济学法则不适用的国家。尽管其他国家现在也在实施养老金改革。

I think in Denmark and you go you retire at 70 years old. Nowadays in France you want to get back to 60 years old. It does not make sense and sooner or later you will pay it. You will pay it because you will have higher cost of borrowing for the states but also for all the companies or you can have in the worst case scenario speculative attack against French assets.

我认为在丹麦，你70岁退休。现在在法国，你们想回到60岁退休。这说不通，迟早你会为此付出代价。你将为此付出代价，因为国家和所有公司的借贷成本都会更高，或者在最坏的情况下，你可能会面临针对法国资产的投机攻击。

未来18个月的法国资产交易策略

So how do you trade the next 18 months in French assets? That's roughly how long is left in Emanuel Macron's presidency. At the moment we assume he will serve to the end of his term. How do you do it?

那么，在接下来的18个月里，你如何交易法国资产？这大致是埃马纽埃尔·马克龙总统任期剩余的时间。目前我们假设他会任职到任期结束。你如何操作？

very I mean, very clear and we have done the same thing since uh over the past two years um we have a lower exposure to French assets even like very strong companies let's say the luxury sector is obviously very strong in France uh very nice companies but we see clearly that all the French asset are um not performing quite well especially compared with other European assets and when I discuss with other companies even insurance companies French banks and so and they are all doing the same thing because we see it as a tail risk for the market.

非常清楚，而且在过去的两年里我们一直这样做。我们降低了对法国资产的敞口，即使是像奢侈品行业这样非常强大的公司，在法国也很强劲，非常优秀的公司，但我们清楚地看到，所有法国资产的表现都不佳，尤其与其他欧洲资产相比。当我与其他公司，甚至保险公司、法国银行等交流时，他们都在做同样的事情，因为我们将其视为市场的一个尾部风险。

Okay, Christopher Dambeck, great to have you with us. Thanks very much for joining us in Paris this morning. Senior investment manager at Piktay asset management.

好的，克里斯托弗·德姆贝克，很高兴你能来。非常感谢你今天早上在巴黎加入我们。Piktay资产管理公司高级投资经理。