---
area: "finance-wealth"
category: finance
companies_orgs: []
date: '2025-10-08'
draft: true
guest: ''
insight: ''
layout: post.njk
media_books:
- bloomberg-podcasts
products_models: []
project: []
series: ''
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWmdVwydrDo
speaker: Bloomberg Podcasts
status: evergreen
summary: 资深投资经理Christopher Dembik分析法国政治不确定性对资产的影响，认为减持法国资产是规避风险的明智之举。
tags:
- asset
- investment
- political
- reform
title: 法国资产前景不明朗：投资者的风险规避策略
---
### 法国政治局势分析

Bloomberg
 Audio
 Studios
 podcasts
 radio
 news.

彭博社音频工作室，播客，广播，新闻。

The
 outgoing
 Prime
 Minister
 Sebastian
 Lonu
 meeting
 the
 Socialist
 Party
 this
 morning.
 Then
 the
 Greens
 and
 the
 Communist
 Party
 as
 well
 as
 he's
 trying
 to
 discuss
 or
 build
 support
 for
 his
 budget
 plans.

现任总理塞巴斯蒂安·洛努今天上午会见了社会党，随后是绿党和共产党，他正试图讨论或争取对其预算计划的支持。

### 投资者视角下的法国资产风险

As
 we
 count
 down
 to
 that
 deadline
 though,
 I
 want
 to
 get
 the
 perspective
 of
 Christopher
 Dembeck,
 senior
 investment
 manager
 at
 Pday
 Asset
 Management.
 Chris,
 great
 to
 see
 you.
 Thanks
 very
 much
 for
 joining
 us
 this
 morning.

在倒计时之际，我想听听Pday资产管理公司的高级投资经理克里斯托弗·德姆贝克的观点。克里斯，很高兴见到你。非常感谢你今天早上加入我们。

From
 your
 point
 of
 view,
 I
 mean,
 how
 do
 you
 view
 this
 uncertainty
 in
 terms
 of
 framing
 for
 French
 assets?

从你的角度来看，你如何看待这种不确定性对法国资产的影响？

Well,
 I
 don't
 see
 it
 as
 a
 big
 risk.
 Uh,
 I
 think
 over
 the
 past
 two
 years,
 we
 have
 seen
 that
 the
 French
 economy
 is
 not
 performing
 quite
 well,
 mostly
 due
 to
 the
 political
 situation.

嗯，我认为这不是一个巨大的风险。在过去两年里，我们已经看到法国经济表现不佳，这主要是由于政治局势。

Uh,
 we
 all
 expect
 uncertainty,
 political
 uncertainty
 will
 last
 at
 least
 until
 the
 next
 presidential
 election.
 So,
 we
 have
 until
 2027.

我们都预计这种不确定性，政治不确定性，至少会持续到下一次总统大选。所以，我们还有直到2027年的时间。

I'm
 very
 pessimistic
 regarding
 the
 outcome
 of
 a
 negotiation
 tonight.
 Um
 I
 have
 some
 contacts
 in
 the
 government
 and
 apparently
 the
 bet
 is
 that
 we
 will
 have
 a
 new
 election
 uh
 in
 November
 potentially
 but
 even
 if
 we
 this
 happen
 I
 don't
 think
 it
 will
 solve
 the
 situation.

我对今晚谈判的结果非常悲观。我有一些政府内部的联系人，据称目前的赌注是，我们可能会在11月举行新的选举，但即使这种情况发生，我认为它也无法解决当前的局势。

So
 for
 most
 investors
 or
 even
 when
 you
 talk
 with
 companies
 anyone
 knows
 that
 the
 situation
 won't
 get
 better
 anytime
 soon.
 So
 we
 are
 getting
 used
 to
 this.

所以，对大多数投资者而言，甚至当你与企业交流时，任何人都知道情况短期内不会好转。所以我们正在习惯这种情况。

Uh
 I
 had
 recently
 talks
 with
 French
 investors
 that
 own
 French
 debt
 in
 quite
 large
 quantity.
 What
 they
 told
 me
 is
 they
 are
 not
 afraid
 at
 all
 because
 basically
 over
 the
 past
 two
 years
 they
 have
 reduced
 the
 exposure
 to
 French
 assets.

我最近与一些持有大量法国国债的法国投资者进行了交流。他们告诉我，他们一点也不害怕，因为在过去两年里，他们已经降低了对法国资产的敞口。

So
 everything
 has
 already
 happened
 and
 I
 guess
 I'm
 not
 the
 only
 one
 pessimistic
 but
 most
 of
 the
 French
 business
 community
 is
 nowadays.

所以，一切都已经发生了。我想我不是唯一一个悲观的人，如今大多数法国商界人士也是如此。

### 不同情景下的投资者偏好

So
 I
 mean,
 is
 there
 a
 worst
 case
 scenario
 then
 if
 if
 things
 play
 out
 I
 mean,
 does
 having
 the
 socialist
 party
 in
 a
 government
 now
 and
 not
 elections
 is
 that
 better
 than
 having
 elections
 from
 an
 investor
 point
 of
 view?
 I
 mean,
 how
 do
 you
 look
 at
 the
 various
 scenarios?

那么，如果情况发展下去，是否存在最坏的设想？也就是说，从投资者的角度来看，现在由社会党组成政府而不是举行选举，是否比举行选举更好？你如何看待各种情景？

Well,
 from
 an
 investor
 point
 of
 view,
 I
 think
 the
 best
 is
 to
 have
 new
 election
 or
 a
 technical
 government.

嗯，从投资者的角度来看，我认为最好的情况是举行新的选举或组建技术政府。

Uh
 we
 are
 all
 quite
 afraid
 if
 we
 have
 a
 socialist
 or
 far-left
 government.
 Obviously,
 um
 I
 think
 one
 of
 the
 biggest
 issue
 with
 the
 left
 is
 that
 they
 consider
 the
 French
 economy
 is
 in
 quite
 good
 shape.
 But
 as
 a
 matter
 of
 fact,
 if
 you
 look
 at
 economic
 activity,
 we
 might
 be
 around
 0.5%
 this
 year.

我们都非常担心如果出现社会党或极左翼政府。显然，我认为左翼最大的问题之一是，他们认为法国经济状况良好。但事实上，如果你看看经济活动，今年我们可能只有0.5%的增长。

Um
 and
 they
 want
 to
 increase
 taxation.
 You
 know,
 you
 have
 all
 the
 discussion
 how
 to
 increase
 much
 more
 taxation.
 I
 don't
 think
 this
 is
 the
 right
 way
 to
 deal
 with
 the
 situation.
 Um
 but
 if
 we
 have
 a
 left
 government
 with
 or
 without
 obvious
 support
 from
 the
 far
 left,
 I
 think
 it's
 not
 good
 for
 the
 economy.

他们还想增加税收。你知道，你们讨论了很多如何大幅增加税收的问题。我不认为这是应对当前局势的正确方法。但是，如果出现左翼政府，无论是否得到极左翼的明显支持，我认为这对经济都不利。

So
 most
 of
 investors
 are
 quite
 afraid
 on
 taxation
 level
 is
 already
 quite
 high
 in
 France.

所以，大多数投资者都非常担心，因为法国的税收水平已经相当高了。

### 对养老金改革的看法

One
 of
 the
 key
 comments
 we've
 been
 watching
 this
 morning
 is
 from
 former
 Prime
 Minister
 Elizabeth
 Bond,
 someone
 who
 who
 brought
 the
 the
 pension
 reforms
 uh
 through
 parliament
 when
 she
 was
 prime
 minister.
 She's
 now
 saying
 that
 she
 could
 be
 in
 favor
 of
 suspending
 that
 reform.
 I
 mean,
 what
 what's
 your
 view
 on
 on
 that
 proposal?

今天早上我们看到的一个关键评论来自前总理伊丽莎白·博恩，她曾在担任总理期间推动了养老金改革通过议会。她现在表示，她可能支持暂停该改革。你如何看待这个提议？

Well,
 it's
 a
 complete
 nonsense.
 Nowadays,
 we
 have
 in
 terms
 of
 public
 deficit,
 it
 will
 be
 around
 5.4%
 of
 GDP,
 which
 is
 one
 of
 the
 worst
 in
 the
 European
 Union.

嗯，这完全是胡说八道。目前，在公共赤字方面，将达到GDP的5.4%左右，这是欧盟中最糟糕的之一。

So,
 let's
 say
 that
 you
 suspend
 the
 reform,
 you
 need
 to
 find
 according
 to
 my
 assessment,
 you
 need
 to
 find
 every
 year
 between
 20
 and
 30
 billion
 euro
 more.
 So,
 where
 do
 you
 find
 it?
 I
 mean,
 we're
 unable
 even
 to
 reduce
 the
 deficit
 at
 all.
 So
 if
 you
 suspend
 the
 reform
 only
 for
 political
 purpose,
 the
 issue
 is
 that
 at
 the
 end
 of
 the
 day
 your
 deficit
 will
 keep
 increasing.

所以，假设你暂停改革，根据我的评估，你每年需要额外找到200到300亿欧元。那么，你从哪里找呢？我的意思是，我们甚至无法减少赤字。所以，如果你仅仅为了政治目的而暂停改革，那么问题在于，最终你的赤字将继续增加。

So
 yes,
 clearly
 the
 investors
 or
 you
 don't
 have
 speculative
 attack
 against
 the
 French
 debt.
 But
 right
 now
 we
 don't
 know
 if
 it
 will
 happen.
 You
 know
 in
 the
 bond
 market
 everything
 can
 fall
 down
 very
 fast.
 So
 nowadays
 it's
 very
 quiet.
 I
 expect
 it
 will
 remain
 like
 that.
 But
 let's
 say
 that
 we
 suspend
 the
 bond
 the
 pension
 reform.
 No
 one
 knows
 what
 going
 to
 happen
 on
 the
 bond
 market.
 So
 you
 could
 have
 speculative
 attacks
 against
 French
 assets.
 So
 that's
 that's
 why
 I
 think
 it's
 really
 not
 wise.

所以，是的，很明显投资者，或者说，你并没有受到针对法国国债的投机攻击。但现在我们不知道这是否会发生。你知道，在债券市场，一切都可能很快崩溃。所以现在很平静。我预计会保持这样。但是，假设我们暂停养老金改革。没有人知道债券市场会发生什么。所以你可能会面临针对法国资产的投机攻击。所以，这就是为什么我认为这真的不明智。

### 债券收益率与评级展望

What
 sort
 of
 move
 would
 that
 mean
 in
 terms
 of
 yields
 or
 or
 the
 spread
 with
 Germany?

那在收益率或与德国的息差方面，会是什么样的变动？

Well,
 let's
 say
 we're
 around
 for
 the
 10
 year
 bond
 market
 for
 the
 French
 government
 bonds,
 we
 are
 around
 3.5
 3.7%
 which
 might
 be
 the
 top.
 If
 we
 jump
 around
 4%,
 it
 will
 be
 already
 quite
 challenging.
 you
 know
 I
 mean
 we
 have
 seen
 it
 for
 Greece
 and
 I
 don't
 compare
 France
 with
 Greece
 but
 from
 one
 moment
 to
 another
 almost
 overnight
 everything
 can
 fall
 down
 so
 that's
 why
 I
 think
 we
 need
 to
 be
 very
 careful
 and
 obviously
 foreign
 investors
 they
 don't
 look
 at
 all
 the
 reforms
 that
 France
 is
 implementing
 but
 we
 all
 know
 that
 we
 need
 to
 be
 very
 wise
 regarding
 the
 pension
 reform
 so
 we
 need
 to
 be
 careful
 and
 if
 we
 suspend
 it
 well
 let's
 say
 let's
 be
 uh
 very
 transparent
 it's
 not
 a
 suspension
 it
 means
 that
 we
 will
 just
 cancel
 the
 reform
 so
 we
 will
 sooner
 or
 later
 a
 new
 debate
 about
 it.
 So
 it's
 not
 the
 right
 solution
 to
 deal
 with
 the
 situation
 and
 I
 think
 from
 a
 political
 point
 of
 view.
 It
 was
 not
 already
 enough
 to
 do
 this
 reform.
 So
 we
 cannot
 get
 back
 to
 this.

好吧，我们来看10年期法国国债市场，我们目前大约在3.5%到3.7%之间，这可能是一个峰值。如果跃升至4%左右，那将相当具有挑战性。你知道，我们曾在希腊看到过这种情况，我不将法国与希腊相提并论，但从某个时刻到另一个时刻，几乎是一夜之间，一切都可能崩溃。所以，这就是为什么我认为我们需要非常小心。显然，外国投资者并不关注法国正在实施的所有改革，但我们都知道，在养老金改革方面，我们需要非常明智，所以我们需要谨慎。如果我们暂停它，那么，让我们非常坦诚地说，这不是暂停，这意味着我们将取消改革，所以我们迟早会就此展开新的辩论。所以，这不是应对当前局势的正确解决方案。而且我认为从政治角度来看，这项改革本身就已经不够了。所以我们不能回到这个起点。

### 养老金支出是最大的财政风险吗？

Is
 that
 the
 is
 is
 the
 spending
 the
 pension
 war
 the
 biggest
 risk
 to
 the
 fiscal
 outlook
 now?

那么，养老金支出现在是财政前景最大的风险吗？

Yes.
 I
 mean,
 if
 you
 look
 from
 2017
 half
 of
 increase
 of
 public
 debt
 is
 only
 due
 to
 the
 pension.
 So,
 we
 need
 to
 deal
 with
 that.
 It's
 not
 enough
 what
 we
 have
 done
 over
 the
 past
 few
 years.
 So
 sooner
 or
 later
 we'll
 need
 to
 deal
 with
 that.

是的。我的意思是，如果你看看从2017年开始，公共债务增加的一半仅仅是由于养老金。所以，我们需要处理这个问题。过去几年我们所做的还不够。所以，迟早我们需要处理它。

Um
 if
 we
 have
 a
 left
 government
 obviously
 we
 won't
 deal
 with
 this
 situation
 because
 the
 left
 consider
 that
 there
 is
 no
 pension
 reform
 issue.
 So
 what
 is
 striking
 is
 that
 for
 some
 politician
 in
 France
 nowadays
 it's
 like
 France
 is
 a
 complete
 uh
 is
 a
 country
 where
 all
 the
 rules
 of
 economics
 does
 not
 apply.
 Although
 their
 countries
 are
 nowadays
 uh
 implementing
 pension
 reform.

如果出现左翼政府，我们显然不会处理这种情况，因为左翼认为不存在养老金改革问题。所以，令人震惊的是，对于法国的一些政治家来说，现在的情况就像法国是一个经济学法则不适用的国家。尽管其他国家现在也在实施养老金改革。

I
 think
 in
 Denmark
 and
 you
 go
 you
 retire
 at
 70
 years
 old.
 Nowadays
 in
 France
 you
 want
 to
 get
 back
 to
 60
 years
 old.
 It
 does
 not
 make
 sense
 and
 sooner
 or
 later
 you
 will
 pay
 it.
 You
 will
 pay
 it
 because
 you
 will
 have
 higher
 cost
 of
 borrowing
 for
 the
 states
 but
 also
 for
 all
 the
 companies
 or
 you
 can
 have
 in
 the
 worst
 case
 scenario
 speculative
 attack
 against
 French
 assets.

我认为在丹麦，你70岁退休。现在在法国，你们想回到60岁退休。这说不通，迟早你会为此付出代价。你将为此付出代价，因为国家和所有公司的借贷成本都会更高，或者在最坏的情况下，你可能会面临针对法国资产的投机攻击。

### 未来18个月的法国资产交易策略

So
 how
 do
 you
 trade
 the
 next
 18
 months
 in
 French
 assets?
 That's
 roughly
 how
 long
 is
 left
 in
 Emanuel
 Macron's
 presidency.
 At
 the
 moment
 we
 assume
 he
 will
 serve
 to
 the
 end
 of
 his
 term.
 How
 do
 you
 do
 it?

那么，在接下来的18个月里，你如何交易法国资产？这大致是埃马纽埃尔·马克龙总统任期剩余的时间。目前我们假设他会任职到任期结束。你如何操作？

very
 I
 mean,
 very
 clear
 and
 we
 have
 done
 the
 same
 thing
 since
 uh
 over
 the
 past
 two
 years
 um
 we
 have
 a
 lower
 exposure
 to
 French
 assets
 even
 like
 very
 strong
 companies
 let's
 say
 the
 luxury
 sector
 is
 obviously
 very
 strong
 in
 France
 uh
 very
 nice
 companies
 but
 we
 see
 clearly
 that
 all
 the
 French
 asset
 are
 um
 not
 performing
 quite
 well
 especially
 compared
 with
 other
 European
 assets
 and
 when
 I
 discuss
 with
 other
 companies
 even
 insurance
 companies
 French
 banks
 and
 so
 and
 they
 are
 all
 doing
 the
 same
 thing
 because
 we
 see
 it
 as
 a
 tail
 risk
 for
 the
 market.

非常清楚，而且在过去的两年里我们一直这样做。我们降低了对法国资产的敞口，即使是像奢侈品行业这样非常强大的公司，在法国也很强劲，非常优秀的公司，但我们清楚地看到，所有法国资产的表现都不佳，尤其与其他欧洲资产相比。当我与其他公司，甚至保险公司、法国银行等交流时，他们都在做同样的事情，因为我们将其视为市场的一个尾部风险。

Okay,
 Christopher
 Dambeck,
 great
 to
 have
 you
 with
 us.
 Thanks
 very
 much
 for
 joining
 us
 in
 Paris
 this
 morning.
 Senior
 investment
 manager
 at
 Piktay
 asset
 management.

好的，克里斯托弗·德姆贝克，很高兴你能来。非常感谢你今天早上在巴黎加入我们。Piktay资产管理公司高级投资经理。