欢迎与挪威主权财富基金的洞察
谢尔盖·古伊夫(Sergey Guif: 伦敦商学院院长)致欢迎辞,并向在场嘉宾问好。
View/Hide Original English
hello uh good evening uh welcome it's a full house it's great to see all of you here uh at lbs we always start on time uh my name is Sergey guif I'm a dean of uh London business school and I will not take much of your time because of course you're here to uh hear from our today's tonight's guest uh Nikolai tangin who is managing the largest uh Sovereign wealth Fund in this world uh Nord G bank's Investment Management um this is the fund which has something like 1.5 percentage point of all listed equity in this world so today or you may say starting last Friday but actually starting many years ago this uh this fund uh has been invested in companies which go up and down right and to especially in today's environment but the fund is investing in companies which are affected by many uh interesting developments especially those in recent weeks we of course would like to hear from niik how the fund how he as a CEO of the fund thinks about uh investing in those uh challenging times now Nikolai also has his own podcast which I'm sure all of you have listened to where he shares wisdom but also asks uh CEOs of uh global companies uh that the uh fund is invested in he also is very open sharing his advice in op ads the recent opad in financial times for example was talking about uh the importance of shortterm uh reporting and the importance of long-term thinking so there are many things that I'm sure uh we will have a chance to talk about today um uh this is I should say a part of summit series of uh uh our Institute for entrepreneurship and private Capital where we bring in uh outstanding speakers to talk about the most challenging decisions and issues uh in in in their in their distinguished careers and with that I would like to invite the director of The Institute Professor Floren vasvari to the stage and Nikolai uh and they will have a fireside chat uh with you please
谢尔盖·古伊夫介绍今晚的嘉宾——尼古拉·坦根(Nikolai Tangen: 挪威银行投资管理公司首席执行官),他管理着全球最大的主权财富基金(Sovereign Wealth Fund: 由政府拥有和管理,用于投资国家盈余资金的基金),即挪威银行投资管理公司(Norges Bank Investment Management: 负责管理挪威政府全球养老基金的实体)。该基金持有全球所有上市股票约1.5%的股份。
View/Hide Original English
uh good evening uh welcome it's a full house it's great to see all of you here uh at lbs we always start on time uh my name is Sergey guif I'm a dean of uh London business school and I will not take much of your time because of course you're here to uh hear from our today's tonight's guest uh Nikolai tangin who is managing the largest uh Sovereign wealth Fund in this world uh Nord G bank's Investment Management um this is the fund which has something like 1.5 percentage point of all listed equity in this world so today or you may say starting last Friday but actually starting many years ago this uh this fund uh has been invested in companies which go up and down right and to especially in today's environment but the fund is investing in companies which are affected by many uh interesting developments especially those in recent weeks we of course would like to hear from niik how the fund how he as a CEO of the fund thinks about uh investing in those uh challenging times
基金投资于受各种发展影响的公司,尤其是在当前充满挑战的时期。尼古拉还拥有自己的播客,他在其中分享智慧,并采访基金所投资的全球公司的首席执行官们。他还经常在《金融时报》(Financial Times: 一家国际知名的商业和经济新闻报纸)等媒体上发表专栏文章,讨论短期报告的重要性与长期思维的必要性。
View/Hide Original English
now Nikolai also has his own podcast which I'm sure all of you have listened to where he shares wisdom but also asks uh CEOs of uh global companies uh that the uh fund is invested in he also is very open sharing his advice in op ads the recent opad in financial times for example was talking about uh the importance of shortterm uh reporting and the importance of long-term thinking so there are many things that I'm sure uh we will have a chance to talk about today
本次活动是伦敦商学院(London Business School: 位于英国伦敦的知名商学院)创业与私人资本研究所峰会系列的一部分,旨在邀请杰出演讲者分享他们在职业生涯中面临的最具挑战性的决策和问题。谢尔盖·古伊夫随后邀请研究所所长弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里(Floren Vasvari: 伦敦商学院教授)和尼古拉·坦根上台进行炉边谈话。
View/Hide Original English
um uh this is I should say a part of summit series of uh uh our Institute for entrepreneurship and private Capital where we bring in uh outstanding speakers to talk about the most challenging decisions and issues uh in in in their in their distinguished careers and with that I would like to invite the director of The Institute Professor Floren vasvari to the stage and Nikolai uh and they will have a fireside chat uh with you please
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里感谢大家的到来,并指出这次活动的人数远超平时,这反映了尼古拉的受欢迎程度。
View/Hide Original English
thank you hopefully you can hear me yes it's it's working very good excellent how many Norwegians do we have here today hands up wow okay that's good there you go excellent excellent so uh thank you all for coming on time and for taking pictures it's allowed to take pictures so feel free to do so uh we will make sure we smile so uh we appreciate you coming on time and we appreciate appreciate so many of you coming this is quite unusual for us uh we we typically run these events in much you know with a much smaller audience but Nikolai is uh so popular I'm almost learning now that uh the number of speakers is a function of uh the assets and the management or maybe some there's some causal effect here somehow so thank you for coming
基金的历史、规模与透明度
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里指出,今天的会议旨在了解这个全球最大的基金。挪威银行投资管理公司是挪威中央银行的管理部门,负责管理挪威政府全球养老基金。该基金目前规模达1.8万亿美元,成立于1996年,自那时以来表现出色,复合回报率约为6.30%。尼古拉于五年前,即2020年9月被任命管理该基金。
View/Hide Original English
so today's session is really about understanding the largest Fund in the world as uh Serge was saying the fund the Nord Bank investment management is the the management arm of the Norwegian Central Bank that manages the fund is the government pension plan actually the fund is now 1.8 trillion dollar the last time I checked at least and has been set up in 1996 and since 1996 this has done uh incredibly well compounded returns at about 6.30% or something like that and Nikolai has been appointed to run this fund 5 years ago in September 2020 so maybe we can start by um Nikolai maybe you can tell us a little bit about the fund maybe the governance structure so that we all understand it here
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里表示,根据她的研究,在所有主权财富基金中,挪威的基金是迄今为止最透明的。她请尼古拉介绍基金的数字和治理结构。
View/Hide Original English
I did some research myself and I I can definitely say that amongst all the Sovereign wealth funds uh your fund is the most transparent by far okay it's is really transparent everything is on the website but maybe you can tell us a little bit about the fund in terms of numbers today and and maybe how you found it 5 years ago when you joined
尼古拉·坦根解释说,要理解该基金,需要追溯到1969年,当时挪威海岸外发现了石油。这一发现于1969年圣诞节前夕向挪威人民公布。在许多国家,这种财富发现往往带来腐败和产业挤出效应,因此挪威政界人士决定将其转化为一个基金。
View/Hide Original English
sure um I think to understand the fund you need to go all the back to all the way back to 1969 where where they were drilling for oil outside the coast of Norway and on the very last uh well they found oil if it hadn't found oil then they would have packed up the toys and gone home and um this was announced to the Norwegian people the day before Christmas Eve 1969 and then you can say wow what a Christmas gift but the thing was that in many countries it had been a curse to find uh such wealth it had led to corruption uh to crowding out of Industries and so on and so that's when the Norwegian politicians decided to make it into a fun so in '96 they made the first deposit into the fund two billion Norwegian Groner and that's grown to roughly 20,000 billion now
1996年,基金首次存入20亿挪威克朗,如今已增长到约20万亿克朗。基金的理念是将石油财富从大陆架转移到金融资产中。目前,基金在金融市场上的回报已是其投入资金的两倍,相当于“两次发现石油”。
View/Hide Original English
um so the idea was to take the wealth from the Shelf move it into Financial assets and now we made twice as much uh uh uh in terms of returns in financial markets compared to the money we put into the fund so in a way we found oil twice on the Shelf in financial markets
基金在全球拥有700名员工,是一个非常小的团队,尼古拉称之为“国家赚钱团队”。他认为能在这家公司工作是巨大的荣誉,因为他们管理的资金为挪威提供了五分之一的医院、学校和道路建设资金,超过20%的国家预算由该基金资助。
View/Hide Original English
we are 700 people around the world so it's a very very small team okay so I call us the national moneymaking team um and and um I kind of think it's a big honor to work in that firm because what we do is to uh take care of the money and the money now provides one out of five Hospital School Road more than 20% of the budget is financed by this fund
基金的运作遵循挪威财政部下达的授权,财政部在其中扮演着非常重要的角色。基金严格按照该授权进行投资,是一个相对接近指数的基金。
View/Hide Original English
the way it's run it's uh uh run according to a mandate that we are given from the Ministry of Finance so the ministry is very very important and uh they have made this mandate and we are pretty close we're investing close to that mandate so it's a relatively index near fund and I think you have to be pretty index near when you when you are of such importance uh to the country what else okay
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里补充说,这不仅仅是一个指数基金,它还通过选择性的主动管理来增强收益。
View/Hide Original English
and definitely this is not just an index fund is a you do have you augment this with some selective active management
尼古拉·坦根强调,该基金是全球最透明的基金。他提到曾有一个全球透明度排名,过去加拿大基金位居榜首。他认为在冰球比赛中输给加拿大人可以接受,但在透明度上不能。因此,他们努力工作,去年在所有类别中都获得了100分,实现了“超级透明”。
View/Hide Original English
yeah we we can talk about that as well so so just just a couple more things you mentioned that it's a very transparent fund it's the most transparent Fund in the world okay yeah now how can I say that well there is actually a world championship in transparency historically It Was Won by the Canadians and I kind of think it's okay to be beaten by Canadians in ice hockey but it's not okay to be beaten in transparency so we decided we're going to win this and we work really hard and last year we got 100 out of 100 in all categories so we are super trans transparent okay everything you want to find you can see on our website I think that's really important to be uh uh to be transparent
他认为透明度非常重要。其次,基金的运作需要有广泛的政治基础,因此他们所做的一切都得到了议会的支持,这也很重要,因为这样政客就不会轻易改变主意,政策也不会因议会更迭而改变。
View/Hide Original English
the second thing is what you do needs to be have broad political anchoring so everything we do is anchored in the parliament that's uh also very important because then the politicians don't change their mind uh and you haven't got a a change in policy when you have a change of parliament so uh so those are two two uh two very important things
投资风格与主动管理
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里提到,根据她的研究,自尼古拉于2020年加入以来,基金的价值增长了约80%。她询问尼古拉在财政部设定的授权和中央银行董事会的监督下,如何在基金中融入自己的投资风格,以及他在操作化和实施授权方面有多大的自由度来创造价值。
View/Hide Original English
and maybe so we can dig a little bit into your activities so you joined 5 years ago the fund based on my research the fund went up 80% since you joined maybe I got the numbers wrong but since 2020 until today the fund went up by about 80% yeah but I mean that's not me right that's just uh that's financial markets financial markets have been very strong very but I would and of course you have a a set mandate by the Ministry of Finance and you are overseen by the board within the central bank yeah but to what extent did you manage to bring in your own investment style within this mandate you obviously your role is to operationalize that mandate and implement it uh to what extent you have some degree of freedom to work within that mandate to generate this type of value
尼古拉·坦根表示,他们当然会这样做。他们以更系统的方式从错误中学习,例如创建了一个“投资模拟器”。当投资经理想要购买1000万美元的苹果(Apple: 一家美国跨国科技公司,以其消费电子产品、软件和在线服务闻名)股票时,系统会立即反馈:“弗洛伦,你在科技股方面表现不佳,从未赚过钱。这是一笔共识交易,而你最擅长逆向交易。你的目标交易规模是1亿美元,而不是1000万美元。”
View/Hide Original English
yeah no we uh we of course do that so we are uh working on in a more systematic manner to learn from our mistakes that's one thing so we've created uh something called uh an investment simulator so for instance now you want to buy uh $10 million of Apple well before you manage to put the order in you basically get back to you you know Floren you're not very good in technology because you never made money in a Technology stock before uhhuh it's a consensus trade you are best at contrarian trades your uh Target uh ticket size is $100 million not $10 million and so on so you get all the you get all your all your trade history uh back to you in a systematic manner so that you can easily more easily learn from your mistakes
通过这种方式,投资经理可以系统地回顾自己的交易历史,更容易地从错误中学习。实施后,他们发现投资组合经理能够更长时间地持有赢家,更快地止损输家,从而影响了他们的交易行为。
View/Hide Original English
now after having implemented that we see that our portfolio managers are better at running the winners for longer and they're cutting the losers quicker so it's actually impacting their trading Behavior so that's one of the things we did
他们还改进了基金内部和外部的信息流通,现在收到的申请数量是前所未有的,这意味着他们几乎在所有方面都有所改进。他们更加关注技术,将自己视为一家重要的科技公司,并积极应用人工智能(AI: 模拟人类智能的机器智能)。
View/Hide Original English
we've improved uh uh information within the fund both internally and externally and so now we know have you know just a level of applications which we have never seen before which has meant that we have been uh you know just I think improving pretty much everything we do there is more a focus on technology we are a very important technology company and we can come back to just how we are applying uh AI mhm and so I think we've just been kind of fine-tuning just a lot of things we we are working on on people's psyche in in a different way so we use uh Sports psychologists in the fun now
他们还在以不同的方式研究员工的心理,例如在基金中聘请了体育心理学家。尼古拉解释说,如果告诉人们需要与心理学家合作,他们可能会觉得自己生病了;但如果告诉他们需要与体育心理学家合作,他们就会觉得自己是英雄,尽管讨论的内容可能完全相同。
View/Hide Original English
why do we use sport psychologists yeah well the thing the thing is that if I say listen you need to you need to work with a psychologist then you are ill if I tell you you have to work with a sport psychologist then you are a hero I got it okay even though you talk about exactly the same things
体育心理学之所以有效,是因为它专注于过程而非结果。在比赛前,运动员不会想“我一定要赢”,而是会思考如何优化过程中的每一个环节,结果自然是过程的函数。这减轻了压力,并使人们能够以更具韧性和更好的方式度过艰难时期。
View/Hide Original English
and the reason why sport is so good is because in sport they focus in on process rather than outcome you know before before a race you don't think gee I really have to win this race you think about you know I just need what do I need to do just need to optimize every part of the process and then the results are basically a function of your process it takes away a lot of the stress and it means that you can come through uh uh tough periods in a much more resilient and better way
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里询问这是否意味着他们更善于内省,以找出哪些方法有效、哪些无效,以及是否有实验元素来避免人类偏见,例如之前提到的“长期持有赢家,更快止损输家”。尼古拉·坦根确认他们正在研究所有这些方面。
View/Hide Original English
so I guess you are more introspective in terms of figuring out what works what doesn't work and do you have an element of let's say experimentation when it comes to this approaches to for instance avoid human biases like the one that you mentioned earlier yeah so we holding longer selling faster yeah we work on all these things you work on all those St okay
他们还努力延长投资的时间跨度。越是长期投资,需要做出的决策就越少,决策质量也往往越高。如果每天需要做出100个决策,它们的质量自然不会很高;如果每月只做一次决策,那会好得多。
View/Hide Original English
and do you and I'm sorry two more things uh we try to increase the time Horizon for our investments um the thing is that the more longterm you are the fewer decisions you need to make and the fewer decisions you make the better they tend to be now if you have to make 100 decisions a day of course they are not going to be very good yeah if you make one a month it's better going to be good yeah much better for sure much better
其次是培养逆向投资(Contrarian Investing: 一种投资策略,指投资者故意采取与市场普遍情绪相反的行动)的能力。尼古拉指出,如果跟随大众,永远不会失业,可以买入最昂贵、最受追捧和炒作的股票。即使亏损,只要大家都在亏损,你就没事。但要成为一个“正确的逆向投资者”是非常困难的,然而所有的钱都在那里。
View/Hide Original English
the second thing is to work on the ability to be contrarian now if you have a square and you have right wrong consensus contrarian where is all the money well I guess following the average following the crowds right consensus that's where the money is not no no I no no no I'm just saying what people do that's what they do that's what people do money would be on the contrarian side abely so if you if you follow what everybody else is doing you're never going to lose your job you know you can just load up on the most expensive stocks and the most bought and hyped stocks you're never going to lose your job yeah indeed you can lose a lot of money as long as everybody else is losing money you're fine so to be in the contrarian Square to be right contrarian it's a very tough place to be but that's where all the money is
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里指出,逆向投资并正确与逆向投资并错误之间存在微妙的差别,后者会导致被解雇。尼古拉·坦根同意,并强调在金融领域,生活不是一场人气竞赛。他相信,如果过于在意交朋友和被人喜欢,金融领域就不适合你。
View/Hide Original English
yeah now it's a very fine difference between being contrarian and right and contrarian and wrong as you know much contrarian and wrong you get fired absolutely absolutely now uh so the thing is that in finance uh you know life is not a popularity contest my wife says only people without friends say that uh but I truly believe if you are very concerned about having friends and people liking you finance is not for you yeah agree yeah there's a lot of fear of missing out out there yeah yeah
阿尔法生成与公司治理
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里深入探讨了基金如何产生阿尔法(Alpha: 衡量投资组合相对于其基准指数的超额收益)。基金的授权是遵循富时全球全市场指数(FTSE All-Cap Index: 涵盖全球大、中、小型股票的综合指数),该指数包含约8900只股票,以及约18000只债券的指数。基金的投资组合中,约71%是公开股票,27%是固定收益,其余是未上市的房地产和基础设施。
View/Hide Original English
and uh okay very good so let me just maybe dig a little deeper into how you generate your returns so I know that your mandate is to follow a particular Benchmark which is fotsy all cap index about 8,900 stocks and then an index of bonds about 18,000 bonds out there your portfolio is uh for those of you that are not familiar about 71% equities public equities 27% fixed income and the rest is an real estate unlisted and infrastructure so how do you generate Alpha here relative to your benchmark
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里指出,基金似乎相对于其基准产生了阿尔法,大约25个基点。这看起来不多,但鉴于基金的庞大资本,这是一个巨大的数字,尤其是在长期复合增长的情况下。她询问基金如何在如此庞大的规模下产生阿尔法,同时还要考虑交易成本。
View/Hide Original English
I I I did my research seems like you are generating Alpha relative to your benchmark so you're generating about 25 basis points which might not seem like a lot but given the capital that you have that's gigantic especially that you compound it over time so how do we think about generating Alpha in such a large enormous fund yeah keep it keeping in mind that we also need to worry about transaction costs right yeah I mean it they could add up significantly absolutely
尼古拉·坦根解释说,他们采用分散式结构,拥有在各个领域工作的行业专家和团队,例如金融团队、消费品团队、科技团队(包括硬件和软件)。这些团队在选股方面拥有完全的自主权。
View/Hide Original English
well we uh we have u a decentralized uh structure MH so we have uh sector Specialists and team working in the various sectors you know Financial team uh consumer team Tech Team so both hardware and software and they have autonomy in picking the stocks they want they have autonomy full autonomy absolutely
每个团队都有一个基准,并被要求超越该基准。基金5%的资金由外部经理管理,主要投资于新兴市场。约三分之一(或略低于30%)的资金来自债券,同样分散到各个地区。在实物资产方面,基金在全球拥有近1000处房产,例如在伦敦拥有摄政街25%的股份。
View/Hide Original English
um so they have uh you know like a a benchmark and then they are supposed to beat The Benchmark and so this is all very decentralized then um we also have 5% of the fund is run by external managers that's mainly in Emerging Markets uh roughly a third is or just under 30% is is from bonds so there again it's decentralized to the various regions and then we have real assets where we own just under a thousand uh properties around the world so for instance here in in London we own 25% of region Street yeah
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里提到基金最近还在梅费尔购买了房产。她询问尼古拉如何确保这些团队之间的协作,因为它们过去可能像“筒仓”一样独立运作。
View/Hide Original English
um and you recently bought something in Mayfair as well right in January seen the news yeah okay so uh how how do you ensure that these teams you know what what you just told us is that they work in their areas in their let call them silos maybe but but how do they well they were silos in the past but we work very hard to get rid of the silos okay how did you manage that with the system that you created or how did you break this side
尼古拉·坦根表示,他们通过讨论、提高意识、开展跨部门合作项目和改进沟通来打破“筒仓”。他认为,人类天性倾向于不分享信息、各自为政、短视。首席执行官的工作就是拉长人们的时间跨度,确保他们更多地沟通和分享。
View/Hide Original English
you you break silos by uh talking about it by being conscious about it by having Corporation projects across by improving communication across uh you work on it very very hard um you know I think it's really interesting because our human nature is to not share much information is to work in silos is to be pretty short term you know that's how we are as human beings you know and then the job of a CEO is basically to stretch you know stretch to time Horizon make sure that people communicate more share more all these kind of things that's that's what we do every day you know
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里指出,尽管基金追踪近9000只股票,但它并非被动持有者,而是积极参与公司治理。尼古拉·坦根确认,他们对800家公司进行积极覆盖,其余则采取更被动的方式。他强调积极资产管理的重要性,因为他们也是积极的所有者,而非激进的所有者。
View/Hide Original English
yeah yeah I mean even though you track so many stocks close to 9,000 stocks you are not really a passive holder of those stocks you are actually involved in governance issues you vote in in meetings and absolutely absolutely so so we have so we um I would say we have active coverage of uh 800 companies okay and then the rest would be more passive it's really really important to be an active uh uh to have active Asset Management because we are also an active owner okay we are not an activist owner but we are an active owner
这意味着他们与公司沟通,每年举行约3000次公司会议,并在近1万场年度股东大会上对超过10万项决议进行投票。有趣的是,他们提前五天公布投票意向,这使得当他们投反对票时,约有3%的其他股东会关注他们的行动。因此,他们对全球近5%的投票产生影响,从而影响其他股东。
View/Hide Original English
it means that we uh communicate with companies we have some 3,000 company meetings every year and we vote really important we vote at more than 100,000 uh uh resolutions at nearly 10,000 uh agms and what is interesting I think is that uh you know we own one and a half% of of all the equities in the world but we pre-announce our voting intentions 5 days ahead of agms so that everybody else can see how we're going to vote and that means that when we have against votes roughly three percentage points more would look at what we do so we have impact on just under 5% of all the votes in the world so you're influencing also other shareholders who are probably not doing their homework well they can see what we do right yeah yeah
领导力风格与企业文化
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里询问在公司治理问题上,尼古拉是否从他的播客中学习到一些东西,因为他采访了许多成功的首席执行官。她想知道他观察到的领导力风格,以及这些讨论是否影响了基金的资产配置。
View/Hide Original English
and um I guess when when it comes to this uh governance issues um is there an element of learning because obviously you have this very successful podcast and you you are interviewing a lot of very successful CEOs and the fund is investing in those companies that are R by those CEOs what leadership styles have you seen when when talking to the CEOs and how what is your perception of of your understanding of those individuals those very successful individuals and their Styles and how is that discussion maybe shaping maybe your allocation or maybe not yeah
尼古拉·坦根表示,这些讨论不会影响资产配置,但他认为全球领导力风格的变化趋势很有趣。他观察到一种趋势是公司运营方式更加民主化,更注重广泛共识和扁平化结构,这可能受到社交媒体的加速影响。
View/Hide Original English
so I would not say it's shaping allocations um but what is happening to leadership styles around the world I think it's interesting I think there is a trend towards uh a more kind of democratic way of running a company so more uh anchoring uh broader consensus uh and flatter structures that's something uh which is being kind of accelerated by social media and so on I think so this is uh in a way digitalization probably yeah yeah
他认为这在某种程度上是斯堪的纳维亚领导模式的体现,并且印度领导风格也在崛起,这始于硅谷的科技公司,例如萨蒂亚·纳德拉(Satya Nadella: 微软公司现任首席执行官)。
View/Hide Original English
this is in a way a bit of the Scandinavian Leadership Model so I think that's that's moving up and then I think the Indian leadership style is moving up and it kind of started with the tech companies in Silicon Valley you know I mean like the SAA Adella and some of the other people there um very impressive
他提到最近在印度会见了近40位首席执行官,讨论了印度领导风格。他发现其中有一种谦逊的特质,印度人认为即使是神也应该谦逊。他们为比自己更伟大的事业工作,充满同理心,不喜欢裁员,喜欢善待员工。他认为这种强调同理心的领导风格正在兴起。
View/Hide Original English
and I was in India the week before last and met with um just under 40 CEOs and we were talking about the Indian leadership style and I think it's there is there is a there is a level of humbleness uh coming out of that you know India even the gods are supposed to be humble right and so they are very humble and they are working for something which is bigger than themselves uh there is a lot of empathy there is um you know they don't like to lay off people they like to treat people really well and so there is something there which is I think it's moving up the whole kind of empathetic Edge it's um it's very interesting
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里询问这种领导风格是否会带来更好的长期业绩。她举例说,在困难时期不裁员,短期内可能看起来是个糟糕的决定,但长期来看可能对公司有益,就像新冠疫情期间一些公司迅速裁员,结果后来难以恢复,甚至失去了关键人才。
View/Hide Original English
and and do you see that this leadership style is potentially leading to better performance long term in the case of those companies I mean because sometimes uh let's say not fighting people in during a difficult period might seem like a very bad shortterm decision but it might help those companies long term like we had the recent experiment with covid where companies fired very quickly a lot of people and then right after Co they struggled to come back they in fact never came back because they fired critical people
尼古拉·坦根同意,并认为通常情况下,你对待员工越好,结果就会越好,当然这也有一个限度。弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里询问这是否是他们分析800只股票时会考虑的因素。
View/Hide Original English
absolutely yeah no I think generally you the better you treat your people the the better the results will be uh you know to to a limit and and is is this an element that you look at when you analyze those 800 stocks is is this part of your analysis
尼古拉·坦根确认他们会花时间研究管理质量和企业文化。他年轻时可能较少关注领导风格和企业文化,但现在认为企业文化“令人难以置信地有趣”。他观察到两家几乎完全相同的公司,一家表现出色,另一家表现糟糕,在银行等行业尤其如此。
View/Hide Original English
yes we do we do spend time on on management uh quality and so on I think it's interesting when I was younger um I probably spent less time looking at leadership styles and less time looking at corpor culture corpor culture is just unbelievably interesting and you see two companies which can be pretty much exactly the same and then one company is doing really well and one is doing really badly right you see it to the extreme in Banks I mean Banks I mean they're basically the same yeah then some of them are going bust and some of them are hugely successful you know for tens and tens of years
他认为这取决于你雇佣什么样的人、如何培训他们、如何考虑继任计划、价值观以及做正确的事情。这种现象在各行各业都存在,理解企业文化非常重要,他们也在播客中投入大量时间讨论这一点。
View/Hide Original English
and it's just like it's the type of people you hire is how you train them is how you think about succession you know it's the values is doing the right things but you see it in Industry after industry you see it in everything from you know to footware companies may look the same two elevator companies may look the same two defense companies may look the same and then some successful and someone not and I think it's to understand the coroporate culture and we spend a lot of time on that on the podcast yeah yeah
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里询问领导风格和成功与高管薪酬的相关性,以及薪酬方案是否不够优化。尼古拉·坦根表示他们会关注这一点。对他们而言,重要的不是薪酬水平,而是其结构。薪酬应该与长期挂钩,基于股权,并在一段时间内归属,并取决于业绩。
View/Hide Original English
and to what extent do you think this leadership styes and their success correlate with the compensation at the executive level to what extent do you think maybe the compensation packages that people at that level get are not optimal enough is this something you look at or yes we look at that yeah um what is important for us it's not so much the level of compensation about is the structure mhm it should be long-term it should be Equity based uh it should vest over a period of time and it should be uh and it should be dependent on on results you know yeah yeah
应对市场波动与治理结构
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里将话题转向基金业绩,尤其是在市场波动时期。2022年,基金报告了重大亏损,这可能带来政治压力。但2023年和2024年业绩非常成功,去年利润超过2200亿美元。她询问当业绩不佳时,基金如何应对来自政界或挪威公民的压力,以及如何坚持长期投资的路线。
View/Hide Original English
okay so maybe we can switch a little bit on related to Performance when the markets are very volatile you know the returns can fluctuate quite a bit in 2022 you had a significant loss you reported a significant loss which obviously brings with it some some costs maybe on the political side but then 23 and 2024 were very successful we had excellent returns I just read an article in uh on Reuters that last year your profit was over 220 billion now the question that I wanted to ask you especially in the context of today is what happens when the performance is not so good you know how do you deal with that situation with the pressure that you might have as a long-term investor from you know maybe people in the political Spectrum or or people that are outside that you know the the citizens of Norway right that are maybe questioning what the fund is doing they might not see the long-term perspective that you take how do you deal with that stay stay the course
尼古拉·坦根认为,最重要的是对所做的一切保持高度透明,这样业绩报告就不会令人意外。此外,基金有明确的授权和风险预算(Risk Budget: 衡量投资组合可以承担的最大风险水平的指标),以追踪误差(Tracking Error: 衡量投资组合收益与基准指数收益之间差异的标准差,反映主动管理风险)来衡量,上限为1.25%。这意味着在三分之二的时间里,基金与指数的偏离不应超过1.25%。
View/Hide Original English
well I think the really important thing is to be very transparent about everything you do so when we report results it shouldn't come as a surprise and then is to have that mandate and with the Mandate we also have a risk budget and the risk budget is measured in what is called tracking error and it is a measure for how far away from the index you can be MH and I think that's really important because if uh and that's 1.25% right is something like that yeah so it means that in two out of three years you should not be further away than 1.22% 25% um
这很重要,因为如果基金亏损严重,他可能会在错误的时机被解雇,而新人可能会在最糟糕的时机清算所有头寸。他澄清说,2022年尽管基金表现不佳,但仍跑赢了基准。
View/Hide Original English
now why is that important well it's important because if we had s lost a lot of money I would have been sacked at the exact wrong time I would have been sacked when the results were really weak there is another person coming in liquidating all the positions at the worst possible time uh so that's why that's important actually in 2022 even though you underperformed you did beat your benchmark just to clarify but yeah and then 23 24 we didn't yeah um
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里询问透明度是否有助于人们理解基金的信息。尼古拉·坦根认为透明度和预期管理都很重要。他们一直表示,未来的回报可能会非常低,甚至可能是负数,因为过去经历了一个不间断的增长期,金融市场发展强劲,利率低,地缘政治局势良好。
View/Hide Original English
yeah and transparency you think helps lot I mean people understand the messaging that you provide transparency is important and expectation management is important you know I think uh we've been saying for some time I think returns will be very low going forward if uh you know could be easily be negative um because we've had we've had a period of uninterrupted growth we've had very strong development in financial markets we have had low interest rates and we've had uh you know a a good geopolitical situation yeah
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里指出,其他主权财富基金的信息非常匮乏,她很难进行比较。她对挪威基金的治理结构感到着迷,并询问尼古拉认为理想的治理结构是什么样的,以及挪威的结构是否可以改进,或者是否有更合适的结构。
View/Hide Original English
so so there's a lot of uh lack of information I would say associated with all the other Sovereign wealth funds I I tried to figure out you know to do some comparison I actually did struggle a lot to find anything other than that they invest in other asset classes classes as well but what I find fascinating as an academic is the governance structure that you have on top of uh Sovereign wealth fund you you know your peers out there and obviously a lot of of them are St stayed back the second is cic in China and then you have um adaa in Abu Dhabi kind of the third what do you think it would be an ideal governance structure is it the one that you have could the one that you have be improved or is there another structure that would be more appropriate for a sovereign wealth fund if you had a a blank canas and you were to redo this again any thoughts on that
尼古拉·坦根认为,鉴于挪威是一个民主开放的社会,他们目前的结构是良好的。基金归挪威人民所有,由议会负责,财政部负责运作,并授权给中央银行,基金则设在中央银行内部。他认为这是一个很好的结构。
View/Hide Original English
I I think uh given Where We Are in the world uh in uh a Democratic Society a very open Society uh it's a good it's a good structure we have it's the fund is owned by the Norwegian people it's kind of taken care of by the parliament the Ministry of Finance uh is kind of running it they have given the mandate to the central bank and then we are situated inside the central bank it's a it's a good structure okay
技术、人才与持续学习
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里提到,除了治理,基金还有许多运营问题,例如700名员工管理1.8万亿美元的资产,需要挑选近9000只股票。她询问基金如何利用技术提高效率,尽管他们主要覆盖800只股票,但这仍然是很大的数量。
View/Hide Original English
so in addition to the governance you obviously they have a lot of operational issues you mentioned that you have about 700 employees or so and you invest in you know 1 1.8 trillion worth of assets so there are lots of stocks that one needs to pick you know close to 9,000 how do you employ technology to make this more efficient I you mentioned just that you cover mainly 800 but still 800 is a lot of stocks
尼古拉·坦根指出,当指数变化时,他们也必须进行交易,每年约有3500万笔交易,这是一个巨大的机器。他们以比世界上任何指数基金都更具成本效益的方式进行操作。
View/Hide Original English
absolutely and when the index changes we also have to make transactions right so we have something like 35 million transactions a year I mean it's a huge machine wow and we are doing it more cost efficiently than any Index Fund in the world so um there's just a lot of Technology going into this and and so how
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里询问基金使用的技术是否独特,或者是否借鉴了其他基金经理的经验。尼古拉·坦根表示,他们多年来一直自主开发技术,所有系统都在云端,高度自动化,几乎所有操作都实现了直通式处理(Straight-Through Processing: 金融交易从开始到结算的全自动化处理,无需人工干预)。
View/Hide Original English
exactly can you tell us a little bit more detail about this technology that you use is something unique to to your fund or is it something that you have taken from other fund managers out there in the public we have we have built it up ourselves over the years um we have everything in the loud uh highly automated nearly everything we do is uh is uh you know straight through processing um so huge amount of technology I we are one of the more important technology companies in the country
他认为他们是挪威最重要的科技公司之一。弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里注意到基金有一个重要的运营和技术部门,并猜测他们正在招聘该领域的人才。尼古拉·坦根透露,在过去三个月里,基金近一半的员工(40%)都为他们的中央代码库贡献了代码,这意味着近一半的员工会编程。
View/Hide Original English
yeah I've seen that one of the main departments that you have internally is operations and tech department which is which is very important and probably you are hiring people in that area as it's it's uh it's really interesting so over the last uh if you look at our last three months 40% of everybody in the fund have contributed code to our Central code bank so uh nearly half the firm can program wow okay it's very it's it's incredible
现在有了人工智能,情况更是非凡。他们很早就认真对待人工智能。要将人工智能引入组织,首先高层必须不懈地强调其重要性。所有招聘的人员都需要具备编程能力。他们还为暑期实习生安排了编程活动,并拥有人工智能大使。基金内有20多人每周与Anthropic(Anthropic: 一家领先的人工智能安全和研究公司,开发了AI助手Claude)保持联系,并提供各种强制性培训。
View/Hide Original English
and now with AI it's uh it's phenomenal I mean we we um we we were we were early in being very very serious about Ai and and um and how do you get AI into an organization well first of all you have to at the top just relentlessly bang on about it right every time I get the microphone I'm just banging on about it all the people you recruit they need to be able to program so uh then all the summer interns had programming uh activities we have uh you know uh AI ambassadors we have more than 20 people across the firm which has got weekly contact with uh with entropic which has clawed and then we have all types of ser uh mandatory training and so on uh so it's just absolutely incredible what's going on now
尼古拉·坦根在去年12月询问所有员工,今年他们的效率平均提高了多少,答案是15%。
View/Hide Original English
so I asked I asked everybody in the firm in December how much have you improved your efficiency this year on average 15% 15 or 15 five wow you know that's across the board mhm it's it's really really
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里询问人工智能在基金中的成功应用案例。尼古拉·坦根表示,他们将人工智能用于各种事情,例如在交易中降低交易成本。模型可以告诉他们,由于指数变化,他们可以在周一卖出,周五买入。这些模型通过内部化更多交易和帮助月末部署资本来帮助他们降低交易成本。
View/Hide Original English
what are what are successful uses of AI in in your setting is it well so the thing is that we use it we use it uh uh I was just walking around we have 100 140 people here in London I walked around today mhm uh to see what people were up to everybody has clawed on one of the screens they are working on it continuously for all kinds of things but we for instance in trading we are using it to reduce trading costs yeah um the models can tell us for instance we can sell something on a Monday and buy it on a Friday because of uh index changes and so these models help us reduce uh trading by uh internalizing more of the uh the and absolutely uh helping us deploy Capital around month end as there just like an endless amount of uh activities we can use it for
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里询问基金是否倾向于内部开发这些技术,而不是外包。尼古拉·坦根确认他们所有技术都是内部开发的。
View/Hide Original English
and you prefer to have this type of Technology internally as opposed to Outsource it some some fund managers like to Outsource this type of yeah we have we have it internal you have everything internally okay
除了技术和人工智能,价值还来自于人才。弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里询问基金如何吸引、留住和培养人才,以及如何进行继任规划。尼古拉·坦根表示,这是他最喜欢的话题。
View/Hide Original English
and other than the technology and the AI uses I obviously the value comes from the people right the the talent that you have internally and maybe you can tell us a little bit about first how you attract Talent how you keep the talent and develop the talent and and finally how you think about succession planning yeah because okay so I mean the people I mean the way we work with people this is my so this is my favorite topic okay so just uh let's dig deep then absolutely
要吸引人才,首先要谈论基金的使命及其对挪威人民和社会的意义。他们会去大学与学生交流,播客也显著提高了申请人数。他们还会派出真正的专家进行外部演讲。四年前尼古拉刚加入时,他一个人承担了60%的外部演讲,而去年这一比例降至10%多一点。当时只有四人代表基金发言,去年则有150人。
View/Hide Original English
now how do do you how do you attract people um well first we have you have to talk about the mission and we talk a lot about the mission and the importance of the fund for the Norwegian the Norwegian people and for society right um we are out at universities we talk to students we have the podcast which has helped us improve application numbers very significantly and then we send out the real Specialists so when I joined four years ago I accounted for 60% of all the external presentations last year just over 10% when I joined there were four people who spoke on behalf of the fund last year 150 people spoke on behalf of the fund
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里询问这是否是内部设定的关键绩效指标(KPI)。尼古拉·坦根表示,他们希望从真正的专家那里学习,如果能派出专家,就能获得更好的申请。基金中有很多优秀的女性员工,他加入时女性员工比例为27%,现在已达到35%。
View/Hide Original English
is this one of the kpis that you said internally is very very important because you want to you want to learn from the real Specialists and if you can put out the real Specialists there you get just better applications and we put out we got amazing women working in the fund when when I joined we were there were 27% women now we are 35% women uh so we just get much better applications across the board now
要留住人才,需要确保流动性,让员工轮岗,并给予他们真正有趣的工作。还要看到并认可他们。弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里指出,如今让员工产生内在工作动力是一项挑战。尼古拉·坦根认为,外在激励(金钱)只能达到一定程度,而内在动力和自豪感才是真正重要的。
View/Hide Original English
how do you keep people you make sure there is mobility you make sure that you move people around uh you make sure that you try to give them really interesting things to do you try to uh see them and acknowledge them uh more MH and um and I think that's you know and getting them intrinsically motivated to do their job is is challenging these days well um uh well you have extrinsic motivation which is money that only get you so far but I think it's the intrinsic motivation and the pride that's really really important yeah yeah
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里注意到基金的员工来自37个国家,是一个非常国际化的组织。尼古拉·坦根认为投资是最有趣的事情,因为它涵盖了从科技变化、消费者偏好、企业文化到贪婪与恐惧、地缘政治、国防预算和宏观经济等一切。世界每秒都在变化,从未如此激动人心。
View/Hide Original English
and you know you actually have I noticed and then and then you know what I think you have a very diverse group from 37 countries I mean this is a very International Organization but the thing is there is nothing more fun than investing it's the most fun thing you can do why is it so much fun because everything you eat and drive and wear is made by companies you know you need to understand technology change you need to understand consumer preference you need to understand you know what's going on with with the products you need to understand corpor culture you need to understand greed and fear geopolitics uh you know defense budgets uh all these kind of things macroeconomics politics and and it's not like it's changing once every month is changing like 1,000 times every second and so there's nothing more interesting you can do yeah I mean when I wake up in the morning is just like I just like spin out of bed you know I just have to read what's going on what's been happening overnight I mean it's just so exciting and the thing is that it has never been more exciting than now because everything is changing so fast and things which wasn't through true you know a month ago is true today it's unbelievable
技术变化的速度更是惊人。他以奥运会为例:从一届奥运会到下一届,人类的速度可能提高1-2%,三届奥运会后可能提高5%。而人工智能技术,芯片效率提高10倍,软件更好10倍,这意味着两届奥运会之间复杂性增加了1000倍。再到下一届奥运会,复杂性将增加10亿倍。
View/Hide Original English
and on top of that technology is changing so unbelievably fast I mean you guys may watch the Olympics okay so you have the Olympics from one Olympics Olympics in Paris to the next Olympics human race improving speed by what 1% 2% okay next Olympics another 2% next Olympics 2% okay so perhaps you a human being can run 5% faster during three Olympics technology AI 10 times more chips 10 times more efficient 10 times better software that's a 1,000 increase in complexity between two Olympics next Olympics and not a thousand times what's 1,000 time 1,000 a lot of how much thousands a million it's a million he's a professor good you put me on the spot usually I put the students on the spot okay now stay concentrated next Olympics one 1 million time 1,000 a billion a billion you see so a billion times increase in complexity you know while the human race is just standing still I mean is that interesting or not and you are living through these times you know nobody has lived through these times before it's unbelievable
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里询问人类思维如何应对这种复杂性,因为我们习惯于简化和走捷径。尼古拉·坦根认为,应对复杂性需要保持敏捷并热爱变化。要更好地应对变化,就要学习各种不同的知识,拓宽视野。
View/Hide Original English
so how can the human mind deal with this complexity we are we are wired to simplify things to to have shortcuts I mean I can see when my students submit assignments they all follow shortcuts you know how do we how how do we manage this complexity with a limited brain okay you manage complexity by trying to stay agile and by loving change yeah we need to love change and we need to be amazed by what's going on how can you best position yourself to cope with change learn a lot of different things you know when you got out of London Business School you have you have narrowed down in a way on business so that's not so good so you need to broaden out again you know you need to learn about social psychology you need to learn about anthropology you need to learn about all these kind of different things you need to read books you know really wide you need to read the Russian Classics right you need to and you need to have many different types of friends people with more different type of friends are more Innovative and they come up with better ideas so you need to just so all of you before you leave today you need to shake hands with two people you never met before you need to just improve the network of people you talk to because that help helps you absorb uh new information and helps you better navigate the change we see in the world
他建议阅读各种书籍,包括俄罗斯经典文学,并结交不同类型的朋友,因为拥有更多不同类型朋友的人更具创新性,能提出更好的想法。他鼓励听众在离开前与两位从未谋面的人握手,以拓展人际网络,这有助于吸收新信息并更好地应对世界变化。
View/Hide Original English
you need to have range right you need to cross pollinate ideas from other fields an investment is indeed a multidisciplinary activity you mentioned psychology at the beginning and it's getting more complicated right to stay ahead of the game yeah
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里指出,投资确实是一项多学科活动。尼古拉·坦根补充说,还需要自信地保持谦逊,对自己的无知保持谦逊。市场总是让人保持谦逊,它的唯一工作就是每天试图偷走你的钱。
View/Hide Original English
and then you need to be confidently humbl you need to be humble about all the kind of things you don't know that's the great thing about the market always keeps you humble yeah absolutely I mean um the market has got one job and that's to try to steal your money every day and it's doing pretty well yeah
对年轻投资者的建议与未来展望
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里在问答环节前提出了最后一个问题:如果尼古拉回到20多岁,他会给自己或在场的学生们什么建议?
View/Hide Original English
I'm mindful of the time I want to open it for Q&A from the audience but I want to ask you one last question we have a lot of young people in the room here trying to pursue a career in in probably in Investments that's why maybe you are here and I was wondering uh if you put yourself in your 20s now that the person that you in your 20s what advice would you give to yourself when you are 20 or to to our students over here yeah I mean the most important what would you do differently
尼古拉·坦根开玩笑说,最重要的就是永远不要听父母的话。他强调,你必须做你热爱的事情,追随你的激情。如果不能,生活将是悲惨的,你也不会从中获得乐趣,更不会做得很好,因为你需要热爱你所做的一切。
View/Hide Original English
the most important thing is just never listen to your parents right I mean never never listen to your parents my son is over there yeah never don't don't listen to him I mean he can hardly calculate uh I'm struggling Under Pressure so um no you have to do what you love you know you have to follow your passion if you don't follow your passion life is going to be miserable you're not going to have any fun and you're not going to be very good at it because you need to love what you do
他引用了英伟达(Nvidia: 一家美国跨国科技公司,以其图形处理器和人工智能芯片闻名)首席执行官黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)的话,黄仁勋说他每天从早上5点工作到睡觉,包括周末和节假日。当尼古拉问他何时放松时,黄仁勋回答说他一直都在放松,因为他热爱自己的工作。
View/Hide Original English
so I asked Yensen H you know Nvidia yeah say so Jensen how much do you work so well you know what uh uh I wake up at 5:00 in the morning I work uh the whole day uh until I go to bed I work every day I work every Saturday every Sunday every holiday I like wow but when do you relax yeah but ncol I relax all the time because I love what I do and so you need to love what you do so it's so you need to do what you have a passion for
其次,第一份或第二份工作赚多少钱并不重要,重要的是学习。你需要找到一个真正能教导你并关心你学习的人。尼古拉说他直到很晚才变得富有,因为他早期的几份工作几乎没赚到钱。但他认为金钱会随之而来,知识的复合增长率是最高的。
View/Hide Original English
then you need to then you need to it doesn't matter how much money you make in your first job or second job it's all about the learning you need to find somebody across the table who you think will really teach you and care about your learning okay very important I was really poor until very late in life because I had made nearly no money in my in my first few jobs doesn't matter you know money will come knowledge compounds at the highest rate possible totally I mean it's it's amazing
最后,要保持开放的心态,拓宽视野,学习各种不同的知识。他认为他最重要的学位是社会心理学,这是他七年前在伦敦政治经济学院(London School of Economics and Political Science: 位于英国伦敦的顶尖社会科学大学)获得的。社会心理学关乎你如何学习、如何消除偏见、如何做决策。
View/Hide Original English
um and and then it's just to have an open mind um broaden out learn a lot of different things I mean perhaps the most um important degree I did was social psychology I did a degree at the lsse um I mean it was probably like seven years ago I did it quite recently social psychology it's about it's about how you learn it's about how you take away your biases it's about how you make decisions all these kind of things I mean you are so lucky you are still so young
弗洛伦·瓦斯瓦里提出了最后一个问题:如果今天投资一美元,尼古拉会倾向于哪个地理区域或公共股票市场板块?
View/Hide Original English
so Al ask the last question I think we are going to close it so maybe just going forward what do you see the equity markets if you were to invest a dollar today which geography or segment within this public Equity Market would you kind of lean towards and this is outside the fund obviously we understand that the fund is to track the markets but where do you see some opportunities maybe for the let's say uh occasional investors in the room here
尼古拉·坦根回答说,如果想投资金融市场,你需要非常多元化和长期。但他认为,比金融市场能带来更好回报的是教育。教育是你所能做的最好投资。还有一种比教育更好的投资:把钱花在与家人和朋友的经历上,那将是随着时间推移给你带来最大幸福的投资。
View/Hide Original English
okay if you want to invest in fin markets you want to be very Diversified and very longterm okay okay now what will give you better returns than financial markets education education it's the best investment you can make one investment better than that spend your money on experiences with family and friends that is the investment which will give you the most happiness over time and with that good luck with everything and all the best thank you thank you so much thank you
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Nikolai Tangen, Jensen Huang, Satya Nadella
公司/组织: London Business School, Norges Bank Investment Management, Ministry of Finance, Nvidia, Anthropic, Apple
产品/模型: Claude
媒体/书籍: Financial Times