Host: During his speech at this year's conservative convention, Pierre Poilievre hit on a very familiar theme crime.

Host: After ten years of liberal rule, Canada is more costly and crime ridden, dangerous and dependent and divided than ever before.

Host: The liberals, for their part, are proposing stricter policies around crime, things like making bail harder to get and allowing for consecutive sentences. So yeah, both parties are leaning into a tough on crime message, and that's not coming out of nowhere.

Host: Recent polling from the Angus Reid Institute shows 3 in 5 Canadians believe crime has gone up where they live over the past five years. But what do the numbers actually say?

Host: Have a look at some data from Statscan. You can see that police reported crime has been rising since around 2014, but the way that the top line comes down sure makes it look like we're in a better place now than we were in 1998. Is there something we're missing here, or are perceptions out of step with reality? And if they are, why? We're going to dig into the data on crime and into what Canadians believe about crime, and look at the relationship between fears and facts. This is The Rundown.

Host: The majority of Canadians believe that crime in their community has increased over the past five years. That's according to recent polling from the Angus Reid Institute. But do those fears line up with what's actually happening? I asked Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute.

Host: Your institute found that 62% of Canadians, that's about 3 in 5 people, believe that over the past five years, crime has been rising in their communities. So help us understand why Canadians are feeling this way.

Shachi Kurl: I think the the really the first thing to do is look at the what and then let's chat about the why that nearly two thirds of Canadians who say, I feel like crime is rising in my community represents a double the number who felt that way a dozen years ago. So this is a question we've been asking and tracking for a really long time. But what is quite stark is back in 2014. So just about 12 years ago, the number of people who felt that way was only 30%. It's now 62%. So you you have a there's a couple of things going on. Right. But this is a perceptive question.

Shachi Kurl: Jeyan. So do you feel less safe in your community? And you've got two thirds saying, yes, I do feel less safe now. We've got to unpack some of the why like you mentioned. Well, some of this does have to do in a lot of communities with real perceptions of call it more disorder on the street, whether it's unhoused communities, whether it's the opioid crisis, whether it's a mental health, whether it's the combination of that plus the mental health crisis. I get the sense that Canadians are telling us that they're seeing more visible results of of people just not doing so well in front of them, on the streets, in their communities. And that speaks to a sense of a lack of safety.

Shachi Kurl: The the interesting part of this, though, is when we look at violent crime in communities across the country, some of that is, is you see more in terms of property crime, but in terms of violent crime, stabbings, murder, that kind of thing. Those numbers are actually have been, over time declining.

Host: I think if we see here in Toronto, the homicide rates have nearly halved from the year before. So so on that note, help us understand demographics a little bit. What what demographics groups are more afraid of crime right now?

Shachi Kurl: I think that one of the biggest drivers, in terms of who's identifying crime and and lack of safety in their communities, either is something as they're perceiving or is a top issue for them. There is such a political driving line along this. So, you know, two things can be true at the same time. Number one, we're seeing more people across the political spectrum, regardless of how they vote, saying they feel less safe. And you also see this borne out in the data when we ask Canadians, you know, what is the top issue for you? Again, ten, 12 years ago, the number of people saying crime and public safety issues, maybe 4%, 5%. Today that number is at 20%.

Shachi Kurl: And you know what? Liberal voters are identifying it. More NDP voters are identifying it more in Quebec, more black voters. But the big driver here is the fact that conservative voters federally are most likely to to be driving this, in part because maybe it's something that they are feeling more, but also because their leader, Pierre Poilievre, is talking about it a lot more. And Jeyan, I would also say that ideologically, what's really interesting about crime and public safety issues, maybe unlike economic issues or social issues or identity politics issues, crime and public safety tends to be a little bit less ideologically sensitive. So you can be someone who leans left on a lot of issues, but still maybe doesn't feel that safe when you leave your house at night, walking alone in your neighbourhood or your community, which is another measure metric we've been tracking over time and are also noticing more people saying they don't really feel that safe in their neighbourhood after dark. That's a big change.

Host: Well, I want to talk about that just in the results in itself. But also the question this is a question that I remember in high school, one of my teachers talking to us about, you know, when you are walking home by yourself at night, what to prepare for. It's kind of this, this idea that we have to be on edge. I'm just curious, not just the results on itself, but why that question? Why is that a question that we that we're asking when we talk about sort of crime and feeling safe.

Shachi Kurl: Again, it's an important way to measure. Now you're I think if I'm interpreting what you're saying correctly there, you're sort of challenging the notion of why put that seed in people's heads or why ask that question? So they're thinking about it that way. The thing is, you know, we ask all kinds of questions about all kinds of things. Maybe they're thinking about it, maybe they're not. And it's not the first question we ask in a survey so that, you know, we're prompting them to go right there. There are lots of questions you ask about, you know, you know, how you feel living in your neighbourhood. You know, what your own sense of overall, you know, security is. Are you someone who takes more precautions or are you somebody who takes more risks? You asked about demography. It's also a key question that goes back, you know, 50, 60, 70 years, particularly in terms of trying to understand how maybe people who are older. There's also sometimes a gender divide on this issue, men walking alone at night versus women walking alone at night. So this is a very tried and true question that's been asked, you know, in in many jurisdictions in the US and Canada and Europe for many decades. And it is one part of of several questions that are asked to, to sort of gauge people's experiences with their own personal safety, with property safety or security, and also financial safety and security.

Host: One of the other focuses from your data was looking at shoplifting and retail workers. This is over the last, you know, over the past year, Canadians have seen plenty of videos. And these might be isolated. But help us understand, you know, what did the report find?

Shachi Kurl: Well, we did a special question to people working in retail. Are you noticing more shoplifting or attempts at shoplifting? Is this something that that you're having to interact with? It absolutely is more than than in the past. And certainly that tracks with what we hear about a rising cost of living, higher food prices, price inflation on all sorts of things, and the kinds of measures that you see when you walk into the drug store. Now, you know, the, the, the, the razor blade, not the razor blades, but you know, the, the shaving razors are behind plastic or Plexiglas, all kinds of things that you used to just be able to take off of a shelf are behind Plexiglas now. And and that is in part because people who work in retail are noticing more loss or attempt at loss. And, and companies these, these retail chains are are saying to to retail workers, look, your safety is not worth the risk of of theft. So you know other there are other ways and other measures to deal with this. But it's something that retail workers themselves are identifying.

Shachi Kurl: And, you know, Jeyan, there's there's another area of theft that really seems to be affecting so many more Canadians, and that's attempts or actual theft or successful theft in, in the cyber crime area or in attempted fraud. And you know, who among us now has not noticed either an attempt at somebody trying to send a fishy link or try and get your money that way, whether it's via a third party platform like PayPal fraud. And I'm not just calling out PayPal, all kinds of frauds related to that, or directly as a result of fishy charges on on your visa card or through your bank statement going, hey, I didn't pay for that. Having to get on the phone to the bank or to your credit card company and and unpack that. 4 in 5 Canadians, 80% say that this is something that they are noticing and and to tie it back into perceptions of crime in your neighbourhood, you know, 40, 50 years ago, the equivalent to that even 30 years ago was someone trying to mug you, you know, confronting you on the street and demanding your wallet. The thieves now are not trying to do this to you face to face. They're trying to do it by getting you to to click mindlessly on something when you're not paying attention, to get access to your information and try to defraud you. And that now seems to be modern day mugging.

Host: In our last 30 seconds, I do have to ask, when we talk about perception, Canadians often compare themselves to the US. So I am curious if we're looking at the data, does it tell us whether we're more fearful of crime than our neighbours to the south?

Shachi Kurl: It's such an interesting question, Jan, and it's one that really did make me shake my head. In fact, we asked Americans where where they are on this issue, and Canadian Canadians are actually more heightened to perceptions of of lack of safety in increasing crime in their communities relative to the US, where we actually see Americans less likely to say that, yes, they think that crime is increasing over the last few years and their communities. And I don't know whether that's Americans becoming inured to to crime and violence in their communities or whether when your baseline is maybe gun violence on the streets, if you're if you're experiencing less of it as as maybe people are in the United States, in certain communities, we look to what's happening south of the border. And and as Canadians, we would have a different perception of that. But Americans themselves are more likely to say, yeah, crime is not increasing in my communities compared to Canadians. That that was a bit surprising to me.

Host: And unfortunately, that's where we're going to have to leave it. Thank you so much. Really appreciate your time on this.

Shachi Kurl: My pleasure. Take care. Jan.

Host: You might expect that when crime rates fall, fear levels follow, but that doesn't always seem to be the case. So let's take a look at risk perception. And when being afraid makes sense and when it might not, I was joined by Steve Joordens, a psychology professor at the University of Toronto Scarborough, and Jennifer Magnus, a former police officer and an assistant professor of policing and public safety at Wilfrid Laurier University. Steve, I'm going to start with you. We just heard from pollster Shachi Kurl on Canadians fear growing fear of crime. And I'm wondering, from a psychologist point of view, whether it makes sense for Canadians to be afraid of crime.

Steve Joordens: Yeah, I think what we're seeing also is a very much an internalisation of all the threat we're all feeling from all sides now, right? We've got the environmental stuff, we've got geopolitical stuff. Our our brain just sort of reacts to threat. In fact, it's it's got special systems just to look for threat and to get us ready for it. And those systems are kind of engaged like never before now. And we have this sort of chronic stress. And when that happens, you know, things like crime which would always be perceived as as threatening but probably are perceived as more threatening, more likely to happen than they than they typically would. So I think the environment is really contributing to this perception we're having.

Host: Jennifer, as we learned in our last segment, the stats show crime has come down a bit in the last year. So why doesn't that seem to resonate with people?

Jennifer Magnus: I think because it's in our faces all the time in social media. Back in the day, we only saw news when it happened on the hour, usually in the evening news, and now we see it at our fingertips whenever we want, so people feel like it's always there and they see it happening, and they almost resonate with the individuals who are also experiencing it, which then causes that increased feel of fear in their lives.

Steve Joordens: Yeah. And if I may just add to that quickly to the design of social media is to grab eyeballs. And we are attracted to things that are scary. And so it's not just that we're all getting our news from social media. There's a bias in social media to present this scary stuff to us.

Host: Jennifer, I do want to ask, you know, in terms of the types of crimes that we're seeing, and I'm hoping you can maybe go back to, you know, your time on the front lines as well. But the types of crimes that we're seeing and that we're seeing on social media that we're seeing, you know, on our 6:00 news, it feels like it's more personal that, you know, these are much closer to home when we see home invasions, when we're seeing, you know, carjackings does does any of that resonate as well?

Jennifer Magnus: I would say yes.

Jennifer Magnus: And the fear of being broken into is greater for people, especially when it's happening. What, like in rural Alberta, it is actually on the increase property crime. And when an individual experiences property crime, they feel violated and then they feel fearful in their own home when they're supposed to feel safe. And I know as a police officer, we encountered a lot of drug crime, mental health. And my colleague and I are actually doing a study on police officers experiences with the increased drug crimes and homelessness, and they're finding that police officers are experiencing that at a greater rate, and people are becoming more violent. And a lot of it is actually happening with stranger crime, even though it's not as prevalent as known crime, it still creates that sense of fear in people.

Host: Jennifer, I want to stick with you when you talk about sort of the rural when we think of crime, it's often associated with big cities. But as you mentioned, the project that you're working on and sort of want to get a sense of rural areas, are people just as fearful of crime living in where you are, say, in rural Alberta versus, say, Edmonton or Calgary?

Jennifer Magnus: Absolutely. And I actually am the chair of the police committee in rural Alberta here. And there is an increase in property crime. And the RCMP have noted that. And interestingly, starting in 2023, they've seen an increase in violent crime. A lot of it is associated with domestic violence. So the offenders are known to the victim. But a lot of the drug issues are moving to rural Alberta, which from the urban areas and they're breaking into people's homes, which is creating an increased fear. And because the RCMP are often 15, 20 minutes, hours away from helping somebody, there is that fear that they're not going to be able to be saved if they catch an intruder in the action.

Steve Joordens: Yeah, and I really want to follow up on that. You know, those personal crimes like the home invasion is the prototypical because it's not just like, imagine when we sit and watch the news, we see a bunch of things that we don't think really, you know, another tow truck is on fire and they're. And what are these tow truck people doing? But it doesn't really feel personal to us. The home invasions, do. You know, we can kind of feel that. And as a result, we're more likely to remember those stories. And when we estimate the probabilities of events, one of the things we use is something called the availability heuristic. How quickly can we bring to mind examples of that event. And these home invasions come to mind pretty quickly. So they're probably having a disproportionate impact on on how we all, you know, figure out how likely is this. And we probably think it's far more likely than it is.

Host: Help us understand a little bit in terms of the brain. You know, when we see these videos on social media, when we see these videos on the news, what what is our instinct? What are we doing? Is it I think we've had a lot of conversation of, you know, here in Canada about, you know, what laws we can do as homeowners to protect ourselves. There is this, you know, when we talk about the, you know, the fear, there's the flight, there is the freeze. Help us understand sort of how the brain is working when when I am watching a video of a smash and grab on social media.

Steve Joordens: Yeah, yeah. So really, every sensory bit of information that comes into the brain goes through these little things called the amygdala, a little almond shaped part of our brain on either side. And the amygdala's job is to sense danger. It's it's there to keep us alive. And when it detects something threatening and threat is in a very general sense, it doesn't have to be somebody with a baseball bat. It could be an embarrassment or social, you know, threats. They'll kick in this fight, flight freeze system in social media. You know, freeze doesn't really make a whole lot of sense. Flee. I wish a lot more people were fleeing social media than they are. They're not. So what does that leave you? It leaves you. Fight and fight in social media really means to share, to kind of let people know, hey, here's this danger. And so that's another amplification. Now, something that scares you, you're more likely to share. And that's going to make it more prevalent for everybody else.

Host: Jennifer, when we see people doing, for example, hard drugs on the street or someone having a mental health episode in public, what does that do to our sense of safety?

Jennifer Magnus: Well, it creates a greater level of fear, because oftentimes you feel helpless, and because a lot of cities and areas across Canada are having less police officers, they feel that that safety element isn't always readily available to them. And I can personally say that I used to work downtown Calgary, and it wasn't as bad as it is now. And I know that when I'm walking in downtown Calgary, I mean, you see homeless individuals, you see drug people like people whacked out on whether it's meth or whatever it is. And it is it's frightening because they become confrontational. And a lot of times people don't know how to react in those situations.

Steve Joordens: Yeah. And even when they don't become confrontational, the brain naturally is fearful of things we don't understand very well. And those could be people's we don't understand very well. But again, when we see, you know, some of these individuals on the street and we don't quite get how they got there, and we don't really understand if they're dangerous or not. You know, a lot a lot of the people experiencing homelessness, for example, are not dangerous at all. But because we don't really understand that it's scary to the brain. The the brain likes to be able to predict how people are going to respond and how people are going to act. When we feel like we don't have that prediction, we're not sure what they're going to do, then they become scary.

Jennifer Magnus: Yeah. So I was just going to jump in with the study that we're doing right now. A lot of police officers are actually saying that the homeless population are fearful for their lives because they're they're living in tent cities. They're living in areas where they don't feel safe and they have nowhere else to go. And so that I agree with what Steve is saying is that is absolutely a threatening thing for even those individuals.

Host: Jennifer, I want to stick with you. You were a police officer with Calgary Police Services for 14 years. You had mentioned sort of the shortage of police officers is having more visible police presence, a potential answer to addressing people's fears?

Jennifer Magnus: Absolutely. And in Calgary here, the chief of police actually had our sheriffs or our provincial police service partner with the Calgary police, and all they did was walk around downtown Calgary talking to people, dealing with the crime element and the level of safety that resulted in that initiative was amazing. And I think that is actually why the Calgary police put in a foot patrol in downtown Calgary, because individuals working in the high rises were feeling less safe, and so having more boots on the ground and visible, police can actually give individuals that level of safety.

Host: What about people who have or communities rather that have a poor relationship with police? Jennifer.

Jennifer Magnus: In that case, I think it's important and incumbent on the police to interact and engage with those individuals. And I know that the Calgary police and the RCMP as well, they hold community forums which invite individuals that maybe have questions about how the police function if they come from a different country, where the relationship with the police is is not a good one, and trying to build those relationships, and I think those are very important. And I would also suggest that people try and do ride alongs so they can see what police actually deal with on a day to day basis and see that it is a difficult job.

Host: Steve, I imagine for some people, even here in Toronto, for people who take transit, for example, seeing someone in uniform might help them, give them a sense of safety. And I'm just wondering, do you think a greater police presence is the answer, or do we need to address perhaps the root cause of some of these issues?

Steve Joordens: I mean, when it comes to perceptions, it can be tricky. Obviously we want to be after the root causes. We want to try to reduce crime. But but certainly having police officers around, especially as Jennifer suggests, if you feel comfortable and connected to those officers, if they have that community policing kind of vibe, what that does for us is if we're on the subway and there's some characters that we're a little unsure of again, and we're getting a little scared because we don't know how they're going to act. You know, if there's an officer nearby, we know this is going to sound kind of nasty, but this is how society works. It's their problem, right? If that person starts to get whatever, I don't have to do something about it. Either escape or actually, you know, step in. God forbid many of us would be worried about doing that. So to know, hey, that's their job. When when things start to go wrong, they're going to step in. And that means I don't have to. That's that's a huge level of comfort. And it's what we rely on on officers for every day.

Host: I do have to ask this question now, Jennifer, you don't obviously speak for any police service right now, specifically the Toronto Police Service, which is one service that got a lot of attention in 2024 when this was at the height of home invasions. I don't know if you had heard the story, but there was a police officer that had suggested that residents leave their car keys at the front of the door to avoid confrontation with thieves. How does messaging sort of play into this? Because one, you know, for for a lot of residents who heard that message, just like Steve said, seeing a police officer might be okay, well, that's now not my problem. It's their problem. But if police are perhaps passing the puck in certain situations, that that safety and that that perception of safety has eroded.

Jennifer Magnus: And I'm actually glad you brought that up. I'm well aware of that incident. And among my friends who continue to be police officers, we've discussed that. I disagree with that form of idea. You instead, they should be looking at things like, okay, installing cameras because cameras not only make you feel safer, they help the police determine who may be broke in or is trying to break into their place. Giving them ideas for safety would be a better idea, in my view, than saying, leave your key fob at the front door like it's akin to saying just leave your door unlocked, right, and say, pretty much, come in and take what you want and you're good. And I think that creates this animosity amongst the public when they see the police are almost passing the buck, like it's not our problem, just let them take what they need and then get on with your life. But like Steve said, and I alluded to, when someone breaks into your home, that's a violation of your personal space, and that creates a level of trauma and fear for a long time after all.

Host: Right. We have about just under a minute or so, and I want to get a sense if people are feeling anxious, Steve, about crime in their communities, how should they try to navigate around them?

Steve Joordens: I mean, generally, information is great. Jennifer suggested going a ride along. I don't know, can any of us just go on a ride along? It's kind of cool if we can, but but I think, you know, getting a sense of the efforts that the police are making and how you and potentially your neighbourhood, you know, you can. We think of old neighbourhood watch programs and things like that. But but literally there's a lot of security in that social connection that even comes from reaching out to your neighbours and saying, you know, hey, there's a bit of an issue here. Can can we work together and have eyes on the neighbourhood and let each other know if anything seems up? You know, feeling like that's that's part of a community effort I think can help you feel a lot more secure.

Jennifer Magnus: I would also adding on to that, educating yourself about the court systems and how individuals are released, understanding that process, understanding how police function. And like I go back to seeing how they do their job can go a long way and making society feel safer because they see there actually is processes that are being followed and done.

Host: We're going to have to leave it there. Jennifer. Steve, really appreciate your insights on this one. Thank you so much.

Jennifer Magnus: Thank you, thank you.

Host: We want this show to be for you and about the things that matter to you. What do you want us to cover? Let us know by going to TVO.org/rundownfeedback or leave us a comment on Until then, see you tomorrow.