--- author: TVO Today date: '2026-02-04' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfJMCK1jmEw speaker: TVO Today tags: - crime-perception - public-safety - risk-perception - social-media-impact - psychology-of-fear title: 加拿大人的安全感为何下降？犯罪感知与现实的差距 summary: 本期节目深入探讨了加拿大公众对犯罪日益增长的担忧与实际犯罪统计数据之间的脱节。通过 Angus Reid Institute 的民意调查和 Statscan 的数据分析，节目揭示了尽管暴力犯罪率下降，但公众的安全感却在减弱。专家分析了社会媒体的放大效应、可见的街头混乱、心理因素以及政治话语如何共同塑造了公众对犯罪的感知，并探讨了增加警力、改善警民关系以及解决根源问题对提升安全感的重要性。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: politics-society area: society-thinking project: [] people: [] companies_orgs: - Angus Reid Institute - Statscan - RCMP - Calgary Police Services - Toronto Police Service products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 犯罪感知与现实的差距 **主持人**: 今年保守党大会上，皮埃尔·波利耶夫在演讲中反复强调了一个熟悉的主题——犯罪。
Original English **Host**: During his speech at this year's conservative convention, Pierre Poilievre hit on a very familiar theme crime.
**主持人**: 他说，经过十年的自由党执政，加拿大比以往任何时候都更加昂贵、犯罪猖獗、危险、依赖性强且分裂。
Original English **Host**: After ten years of liberal rule, Canada is more costly and crime ridden, dangerous and dependent and divided than ever before.
**主持人**: 自由党方面，他们也提出了更严格的犯罪相关政策，比如收紧保释条件，以及允许判处连续刑期。所以，是的，两党都在强调“严打犯罪”的信息，这并非空穴来风。
Original English **Host**: The liberals, for their part, are proposing stricter policies around crime, things like making bail harder to get and allowing for consecutive sentences. So yeah, both parties are leaning into a tough on crime message, and that's not coming out of nowhere.
**主持人**: 最近来自**Angus Reid Institute**的民意调查显示，五分之三的加拿大人认为，过去五年里他们居住地的犯罪率有所上升。但数字实际说了什么？
Original English **Host**: Recent polling from the Angus Reid Institute shows 3 in 5 Canadians believe crime has gone up where they live over the past five years. But what do the numbers actually say?
**主持人**: 让我们看看**Statscan**的一些数据。你可以看到，自 2014 年左右以来，警方报告的犯罪率一直在上升，但从顶线来看，现在的情况似乎比 1998 年要好。是我们遗漏了什么，还是公众认知与现实脱节了？如果脱节了，又是为什么？我们将深入挖掘犯罪数据，了解加拿大人对犯罪的看法，并审视恐惧与事实之间的关系。欢迎收听 The Rundown。
Original English **Host**: Have a look at some data from Statscan. You can see that police reported crime has been rising since around 2014, but the way that the top line comes down sure makes it look like we're in a better place now than we were in 1998. Is there something we're missing here, or are perceptions out of step with reality? And if they are, why? We're going to dig into the data on crime and into what Canadians believe about crime, and look at the relationship between fears and facts. This is The Rundown.
**主持人**: 大多数加拿大人认为，过去五年里他们社区的犯罪率有所增加。这是根据 Angus Reid Institute 最近的一项民意调查得出的。但这些担忧是否与实际情况相符呢？我采访了 Angus Reid Institute 的总裁 Shachi Kurl。
Original English **Host**: The majority of Canadians believe that crime in their community has increased over the past five years. That's according to recent polling from the Angus Reid Institute. But do those fears line up with what's actually happening? I asked Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute.
**主持人**: 您的研究所发现，62% 的加拿大人，也就是大约五分之三人，认为过去五年里他们社区的犯罪率一直在上升。那么，请帮助我们理解为什么加拿大人会有这种感觉。
Original English **Host**: Your institute found that 62% of Canadians, that's about 3 in 5 people, believe that over the past five years, crime has been rising in their communities. So help us understand why Canadians are feeling this way.
**Shachi Kurl**: 我认为首先要做的是看看“是什么”，然后再聊聊“为什么”。近三分之二的加拿大人表示“我感觉我社区的犯罪率在上升”，这比十几年前觉得如此的人数翻了一番。所以，这是一个我们长期以来一直在询问和追踪的问题。但令人震惊的是，在 2014 年，也就是大约 12 年前，有这种感觉的人只有 30%。现在是 62%。所以，有几件事情正在发生，对吧？这是一个感知问题。
Original English **Shachi Kurl**: I think the the really the first thing to do is look at the what and then let's chat about the why that nearly two thirds of Canadians who say, I feel like crime is rising in my community represents a double the number who felt that way a dozen years ago. So this is a question we've been asking and tracking for a really long time. But what is quite stark is back in 2014. So just about 12 years ago, the number of people who felt that way was only 30%. It's now 62%. So you you have a there's a couple of things going on. Right. But this is a perceptive question.
**Shachi Kurl**: Jeyan，你是否觉得在你的社区里不那么安全了？三分之二的人回答“是的，我现在感觉不安全了”。正如你所说，我们需要深入探讨“为什么”。嗯，在很多社区，这确实与街头“混乱”的实际感知有关，无论是无家可归者社区、阿片类药物危机、精神健康问题，还是这些问题的结合。我感觉加拿大人在告诉我们，他们看到了更多身边的人过得不好，在街上，在他们的社区里。这导致了一种不安全感。
Original English **Shachi Kurl**: Jeyan. So do you feel less safe in your community? And you've got two thirds saying, yes, I do feel less safe now. We've got to unpack some of the why like you mentioned. Well, some of this does have to do in a lot of communities with real perceptions of call it more disorder on the street, whether it's unhoused communities, whether it's the opioid crisis, whether it's a mental health, whether it's the combination of that plus the mental health crisis. I get the sense that Canadians are telling us that they're seeing more visible results of of people just not doing so well in front of them, on the streets, in their communities. And that speaks to a sense of a lack of safety.
**Shachi Kurl**: 但有趣的是，当我们查看全国各地的暴力犯罪时，你会看到更多的是财产犯罪。但在暴力犯罪方面，比如刺伤、谋杀之类的事情，这些数字实际上一直在下降。
Original English **Shachi Kurl**: The the interesting part of this, though, is when we look at violent crime in communities across the country, some of that is, is you see more in terms of property crime, but in terms of violent crime, stabbings, murder, that kind of thing. Those numbers are actually have been, over time declining.
**主持人**: 我认为，如果我们看看多伦多，这里的凶杀率几乎比去年同期减半了。那么，在这方面，能否帮助我们稍微了解一下人口统计学？现在，哪些人口群体对犯罪感到更害怕？
Original English **Host**: I think if we see here in Toronto, the homicide rates have nearly halved from the year before. So so on that note, help us understand demographics a little bit. What what demographics groups are more afraid of crime right now?
**Shachi Kurl**: 我认为，在那些将犯罪和不安全感视为首要问题的人群中，最大的驱动因素之一是政治因素。所以，你知道，两件事可以同时成立。第一，我们看到越来越多的人，无论他们的政治立场如何，都表示感觉不安全。而且，当我们询问加拿大人“对你来说，最重要的问题是什么？”时，数据也证实了这一点。十到十二年前，说犯罪和公共安全问题是头等大事的人可能只有 4% 到 5%。今天，这个数字达到了 20%。
Original English **Shachi Kurl**: I think that one of the biggest drivers, in terms of who's identifying crime and and lack of safety in their communities, either is something as they're perceiving or is a top issue for them. There is such a political driving line along this. So, you know, two things can be true at the same time. Number one, we're seeing more people across the political spectrum, regardless of how they vote, saying they feel less safe. And you also see this borne out in the data when we ask Canadians, you know, what is the top issue for you? Again, ten, 12 years ago, the number of people saying crime and public safety issues, maybe 4%, 5%. Today that number is at 20%.
**Shachi Kurl**: 你知道吗？自由党选民也在关注这个问题。新民主党选民也更多地关注，魁北克地区，以及黑人选民。但这里的主要驱动因素是，保守党选民在联邦层面最有可能推动这个问题，部分原因可能是他们感受更深，但也因为他们的领导人皮埃尔·波利耶夫对此谈论得更多。Jeyan，我还要说，从意识形态上看，关于犯罪和公共安全问题，这很有趣，可能不像经济问题、社会问题或身份政治问题那样，犯罪和公共安全往往不太受意识形态的敏感度影响。所以，你可能在很多问题上倾向于左派，但当你晚上独自走在街上或社区里时，你可能仍然会觉得不那么安全。这是我们一直在追踪的另一个衡量标准，也注意到越来越多的人表示，天黑后在社区里感觉不那么安全了。这是一个巨大的变化。
Original English **Shachi Kurl**: And you know what? Liberal voters are identifying it. More NDP voters are identifying it more in Quebec, more black voters. But the big driver here is the fact that conservative voters federally are most likely to to be driving this, in part because maybe it's something that they are feeling more, but also because their leader, Pierre Poilievre, is talking about it a lot more. And Jeyan, I would also say that ideologically, what's really interesting about crime and public safety issues, maybe unlike economic issues or social issues or identity politics issues, crime and public safety tends to be a little bit less ideologically sensitive. So you can be someone who leans left on a lot of issues, but still maybe doesn't feel that safe when you leave your house at night, walking alone in your neighbourhood or your community, which is another measure metric we've been tracking over time and are also noticing more people saying they don't really feel that safe in their neighbourhood after dark. That's a big change.
**主持人**: 好的，我想谈谈结果本身，也谈谈这个问题。这是我高中时一位老师和我们谈论过的一个问题，你知道，当你晚上独自回家时，该准备些什么。这是一种我们必须时刻警惕的想法。我很好奇，不仅仅是结果本身，而是为什么会问这个问题？为什么我们在谈论犯罪和安全感时要问这个问题？
Original English **Host**: Well, I want to talk about that just in the results in itself. But also the question this is a question that I remember in high school, one of my teachers talking to us about, you know, when you are walking home by yourself at night, what to prepare for. It's kind of this, this idea that we have to be on edge. I'm just curious, not just the results on itself, but why that question? Why is that a question that we that we're asking when we talk about sort of crime and feeling safe.
**Shachi Kurl**: 再次强调，这是一个衡量的重要方式。现在，如果你正确地理解我的意思，你是在质疑为什么要把这个想法植入人们的脑海，或者为什么问这个问题？所以他们会那样想。问题是，你知道，我们问各种各样的问题，关于各种各样的事情。也许他们在想，也许他们没有。而且这也不是我们在调查中问的第一个问题，所以，你知道，我们并没有引导他们去那样想。有很多问题你都会问，比如，“你觉得住在你的社区里怎么样？”“你自己的整体安全感如何？”“你是更谨慎的人还是更冒险的人？”你问了人口统计学问题。这也是一个关键问题，可以追溯到 50、60、70 年前，尤其是在试图理解老年人可能如何看待这个问题时。这个问题有时也存在性别差异：男人晚上独自走路与女人晚上独自走路。所以，这是一个非常成熟的问题，在许多国家，包括美国、加拿大和欧洲，已经被问了几十年了。它是用来衡量人们对个人安全、财产安全或保障以及财务安全和保障的经历的几个问题之一。
Original English **Shachi Kurl**: Again, it's an important way to measure. Now you're I think if I'm interpreting what you're saying correctly there, you're sort of challenging the notion of why put that seed in people's heads or why ask that question? So they're thinking about it that way. The thing is, you know, we ask all kinds of questions about all kinds of things. Maybe they're thinking about it, maybe they're not. And it's not the first question we ask in a survey so that, you know, we're prompting them to go right there. There are lots of questions you ask about, you know, you know, how you feel living in your neighbourhood. You know, what your own sense of overall, you know, security is. Are you someone who takes more precautions or are you somebody who takes more risks? You asked about demography. It's also a key question that goes back, you know, 50, 60, 70 years, particularly in terms of trying to understand how maybe people who are older. There's also sometimes a gender divide on this issue, men walking alone at night versus women walking alone at night. So this is a very tried and true question that's been asked, you know, in in many jurisdictions in the US and Canada and Europe for many decades. And it is one part of of several questions that are asked to, to sort of gauge people's experiences with their own personal safety, with property safety or security, and also financial safety and security.
**主持人**: 您数据中的另一个焦点是关于**盗窃**和**零售业工人**。在过去一年里，加拿大人看到了大量的视频。这些可能只是孤立事件。但请帮助我们理解，报告发现了什么？
Original English **Host**: One of the other focuses from your data was looking at shoplifting and retail workers. This is over the last, you know, over the past year, Canadians have seen plenty of videos. And these might be isolated. But help us understand, you know, what did the report find?
**Shachi Kurl**: 我们对零售业工作者进行了一项特别的提问：您是否注意到更多的盗窃或盗窃未遂？这是您需要处理的事情吗？绝对比过去多。这当然也与我们听到的关于生活成本上升、食品价格上涨、各种商品价格上涨有关。当你走进药店时，你会看到各种措施。现在，你知道，剃须刀片，不是剃须刀片，而是剃须刀，都放在塑料或有机玻璃后面了。很多你以前可以直接从货架上拿走的东西，现在都放在有机玻璃后面了。这部分是因为零售业工人注意到了更多的损失或损失企图。而这些公司，这些零售连锁店告诉零售业工人：“看，你们的安全不值得冒被盗的风险。”所以，你知道，有其他方法和措施来处理这个问题。但这是零售业工人自己指出的问题。
Original English **Shachi Kurl**: Well, we did a special question to people working in retail. Are you noticing more shoplifting or attempts at shoplifting? Is this something that that you're having to interact with? It absolutely is more than than in the past. And certainly that tracks with what we hear about a rising cost of living, higher food prices, price inflation on all sorts of things, and the kinds of measures that you see when you walk into the drug store. Now, you know, the, the, the, the razor blade, not the razor blades, but you know, the, the shaving razors are behind plastic or Plexiglas, all kinds of things that you used to just be able to take off of a shelf are behind Plexiglas now. And and that is in part because people who work in retail are noticing more loss or attempt at loss. And, and companies these, these retail chains are are saying to to retail workers, look, your safety is not worth the risk of of theft. So you know other there are other ways and other measures to deal with this. But it's something that retail workers themselves are identifying.
**Shachi Kurl**: 而且，Jeyan，还有另一种盗窃形式，似乎影响着越来越多的加拿大人，那就是**网络犯罪**或欺诈的尝试或实际发生。你知道，我们当中谁没有注意到有人试图发送钓鱼链接，或者试图通过第三方平台（如 PayPal 欺诈）来骗取你的钱财？我不是只针对 PayPal，而是指所有相关的欺诈，或者直接是你的 Visa 卡或银行账单上出现可疑的收费，让你不得不打电话给银行或信用卡公司去处理。五分之四的加拿大人，也就是 80%，表示他们注意到了这一点。而且，将这一点与你社区的犯罪感知联系起来，你知道，40、50 年前，甚至 30 年前，与之相当的是有人试图抢劫你，你知道，在街上拦住你，抢走你的钱包。现在的窃贼不再试图面对面地这样做。他们试图通过让你在不经意间点击某些东西来获取你的信息并试图欺诈你。这现在似乎是现代版的抢劫。
Original English **Shachi Kurl**: And, you know, Jeyan, there's there's another area of theft that really seems to be affecting so many more Canadians, and that's attempts or actual theft or successful theft in, in the cyber crime area or in attempted fraud. And you know, who among us now has not noticed either an attempt at somebody trying to send a fishy link or try and get your money that way, whether it's via a third party platform like PayPal fraud. And I'm not just calling out PayPal, all kinds of frauds related to that, or directly as a result of fishy charges on on your visa card or through your bank statement going, hey, I didn't pay for that. Having to get on the phone to the bank or to your credit card company and and unpack that. 4 in 5 Canadians, 80% say that this is something that they are noticing and and to tie it back into perceptions of crime in your neighbourhood, you know, 40, 50 years ago, the equivalent to that even 30 years ago was someone trying to mug you, you know, confronting you on the street and demanding your wallet. The thieves now are not trying to do this to you face to face. They're trying to do it by getting you to to click mindlessly on something when you're not paying attention, to get access to your information and try to defraud you. And that now seems to be modern day mugging.
**主持人**: 在我们最后的 30 秒里，我必须问一下，当我们谈论感知时，加拿大人经常将自己与美国进行比较。所以我很好奇，如果我们看数据，它是否告诉我们，我们比南边的邻居更害怕犯罪？
Original English **Host**: In our last 30 seconds, I do have to ask, when we talk about perception, Canadians often compare themselves to the US. So I am curious if we're looking at the data, does it tell us whether we're more fearful of crime than our neighbours to the south?
**Shachi Kurl**: 这是一个非常有趣的问题，Jan，它真的让我摇头。事实上，我们问过美国人他们在这件事上的看法，加拿大人实际上对他们社区缺乏安全感和犯罪增加的感知比美国人更强烈。而在美国，我们看到美国人不太可能说，是的，他们认为过去几年他们社区的犯罪率在上升。我不知道这是不是因为美国人对他们社区的犯罪和暴力习以为常了，或者是因为你的基线可能是街头枪支暴力，如果你经历的枪支暴力比美国某些社区的人少，我们就会看着边境以南发生的事情。而作为加拿大人，我们对那里的情况会有不同的看法。但美国人自己更有可能说，“是的，我社区的犯罪率没有上升”，这比加拿大人更有可能。这对我来说有点令人惊讶。
Original English **Shachi Kurl**: It's such an interesting question, Jan, and it's one that really did make me shake my head. In fact, we asked Americans where where they are on this issue, and Canadian Canadians are actually more heightened to perceptions of of lack of safety in increasing crime in their communities relative to the US, where we actually see Americans less likely to say that, yes, they think that crime is increasing over the last few years and their communities. And I don't know whether that's Americans becoming inured to to crime and violence in their communities or whether when your baseline is maybe gun violence on the streets, if you're if you're experiencing less of it as as maybe people are in the United States, in certain communities, we look to what's happening south of the border. And and as Canadians, we would have a different perception of that. But Americans themselves are more likely to say, yeah, crime is not increasing in my communities compared to Canadians. That that was a bit surprising to me.
**主持人**: 很遗憾，我们只能到此为止了。非常感谢您，我真的很感激您今天的时间。
Original English **Host**: And unfortunately, that's where we're going to have to leave it. Thank you so much. Really appreciate your time on this.
**Shachi Kurl**: 我的荣幸。保重，Jan。
Original English **Shachi Kurl**: My pleasure. Take care. Jan.
### 心理学视角下的恐惧 **主持人**: 你可能会认为，当犯罪率下降时，恐惧水平也会随之下降，但这似乎并非总是如此。所以，让我们来看看风险感知。什么时候感到害怕是有道理的，什么时候可能没有道理。我采访了多伦多大学斯卡伯勒分校的心理学教授 Steve Joordens，以及前警官、威尔弗里德·劳里埃大学警务与公共安全助理教授 Jennifer Magnus。Steve，我先问你。我们刚才听了民意调查员 Shachi Kurl 关于加拿大人对犯罪日益增长的恐惧。我想从心理学家的角度问一下，加拿大人害怕犯罪是否合理？
Original English **Host**: You might expect that when crime rates fall, fear levels follow, but that doesn't always seem to be the case. So let's take a look at risk perception. And when being afraid makes sense and when it might not, I was joined by Steve Joordens, a psychology professor at the University of Toronto Scarborough, and Jennifer Magnus, a former police officer and an assistant professor of policing and public safety at Wilfrid Laurier University. Steve, I'm going to start with you. We just heard from pollster Shachi Kurl on Canadians fear growing fear of crime. And I'm wondering, from a psychologist point of view, whether it makes sense for Canadians to be afraid of crime.
**Steve Joordens**: 是的，我认为我们看到的是一种对来自各方的威胁的内化，对吧？我们有环境问题，有地缘政治问题。我们的大脑会本能地对威胁做出反应。事实上，它有专门的系统来寻找威胁并让我们做好准备。这些系统现在就像前所未有地被激活。我们有这种慢性压力。当这种情况发生时，你知道，像犯罪这样的事情，虽然总是会被视为威胁，但可能被认为比通常情况更具威胁性，更有可能发生。所以我认为环境因素确实加剧了我们的这种感知。
Original English **Steve Joordens**: Yeah, I think what we're seeing also is a very much an internalisation of all the threat we're all feeling from all sides now, right? We've got the environmental stuff, we've got geopolitical stuff. Our our brain just sort of reacts to threat. In fact, it's it's got special systems just to look for threat and to get us ready for it. And those systems are kind of engaged like never before now. And we have this sort of chronic stress. And when that happens, you know, things like crime which would always be perceived as as threatening but probably are perceived as more threatening, more likely to happen than they than they typically would. So I think the environment is really contributing to this perception we're having.
**主持人**: Jennifer，正如我们在上一段中所了解到的，统计数据显示，犯罪率在过去一年有所下降。那么，为什么人们似乎没有感受到这一点呢？
Original English **Host**: Jennifer, as we learned in our last segment, the stats show crime has come down a bit in the last year. So why doesn't that seem to resonate with people?
**Jennifer Magnus**: 我认为是因为它无时无刻不在我们眼前，尤其是在社交媒体上。过去，我们只能在每小时一次的新闻节目中看到新闻，通常是在晚间新闻。而现在，我们随时随地都能在指尖看到它，所以人们觉得它一直都在那里，他们看到了正在发生的事情，他们几乎能与同样经历这些事情的个体产生共鸣，这就会导致他们生活中恐惧感的增加。
Original English **Jennifer Magnus**: I think because it's in our faces all the time in social media. Back in the day, we only saw news when it happened on the hour, usually in the evening news, and now we see it at our fingertips whenever we want, so people feel like it's always there and they see it happening, and they almost resonate with the individuals who are also experiencing it, which then causes that increased feel of fear in their lives.
**Steve Joordens**: 是的。如果我能快速补充一下，社交媒体的设计就是为了吸引眼球。而我们会被可怕的事物所吸引。所以，不仅仅是我们都在通过社交媒体获取新闻。社交媒体本身就有呈现这些可怕内容的偏见。
Original English **Steve Joordens**: Yeah. And if I may just add to that quickly to the design of social media is to grab eyeballs. And we are attracted to things that are scary. And so it's not just that we're all getting our news from social media. There's a bias in social media to present this scary stuff to us.
**主持人**: Jennifer，我想问一下，就我们看到的犯罪类型而言，我希望你能回忆一下你一线工作的经历。我们看到的犯罪类型，我们在社交媒体上看到的，我们在晚上 6 点新闻里看到的，感觉更个人化了。你知道，这些都离我们更近了，比如入室盗窃，比如街头抢车。这些情况是否也让你有同感？
Original English **Host**: Jennifer, I do want to ask, you know, in terms of the types of crimes that we're seeing, and I'm hoping you can maybe go back to, you know, your time on the front lines as well. But the types of crimes that we're seeing and that we're seeing on social media that we're seeing, you know, on our 6:00 news, it feels like it's more personal that, you know, these are much closer to home when we see home invasions, when we're seeing, you know, carjackings does does any of that resonate as well?
**Jennifer Magnus**: 我会说“是”。
Original English **Jennifer Magnus**: I would say yes.
**Jennifer Magnus**: 被闯入的恐惧感对人们来说更大，尤其是在像阿尔伯塔省的农村地区，**财产犯罪**实际上正在增加。当一个人经历财产犯罪时，他们会感到被侵犯，然后在自己的家中感到恐惧，而那里本应是他们感到安全的地方。我知道，作为一名警察，我们遇到了很多毒品犯罪和精神健康问题。我和我的同事们实际上正在进行一项关于警察在日益增长的毒品犯罪和无家可归问题中的经历的研究，他们发现警察正在以更高的比例经历这些问题，而且人们变得越来越暴力。其中很多实际上是与陌生人犯罪有关，尽管它不像熟人犯罪那样普遍，但它仍然会引起人们的恐惧感。
Original English **Jennifer Magnus**: And the fear of being broken into is greater for people, especially when it's happening. What, like in rural Alberta, it is actually on the increase property crime. And when an individual experiences property crime, they feel violated and then they feel fearful in their own home when they're supposed to feel safe. And I know as a police officer, we encountered a lot of drug crime, mental health. And my colleague and I are actually doing a study on police officers experiences with the increased drug crimes and homelessness, and they're finding that police officers are experiencing that at a greater rate, and people are becoming more violent. And a lot of it is actually happening with stranger crime, even though it's not as prevalent as known crime, it still creates that sense of fear in people.
**主持人**: Jennifer，我想继续问你，当你谈到农村地区时，我们想到犯罪时，通常会与大城市联系起来。但正如你提到的，你正在进行的项目，以及你对农村地区的了解，住在农村地区的人们是否和住在埃德蒙顿或卡尔加里这样的大城市的人们一样害怕犯罪？
Original English **Host**: Jennifer, I want to stick with you when you talk about sort of the rural when we think of crime, it's often associated with big cities. But as you mentioned, the project that you're working on and sort of want to get a sense of rural areas, are people just as fearful of crime living in where you are, say, in rural Alberta versus, say, Edmonton or Calgary?
**Jennifer Magnus**: 绝对是。我实际上是阿尔伯塔省农村地区警察委员会的主席。**财产犯罪**确实有所增加，**RCMP**也注意到了这一点。有趣的是，从 2023 年开始，他们看到了**暴力犯罪**的增加。很多都与家庭暴力有关，所以犯罪者是受害者认识的人。但是，很多毒品问题正在从城市地区转移到阿尔伯塔省农村地区，他们正在闯入人们的家中，这导致了恐惧感的增加。而且，由于 RCMP 通常需要 15 到 20 分钟甚至几个小时才能赶到现场，所以人们担心，如果他们在现场抓到入侵者，他们可能无法得到及时救援。
Original English **Jennifer Magnus**: Absolutely. And I actually am the chair of the police committee in rural Alberta here. And there is an increase in property crime. And the RCMP have noted that. And interestingly, starting in 2023, they've seen an increase in violent crime. A lot of it is associated with domestic violence. So the offenders are known to the victim. But a lot of the drug issues are moving to rural Alberta, which from the urban areas and they're breaking into people's homes, which is creating an increased fear. And because the RCMP are often 15, 20 minutes, hours away from helping somebody, there is that fear that they're not going to be able to be saved if they catch an intruder in the action.
**Steve Joordens**: 是的，我真的很想接着说这一点。你知道，像入室盗窃这样的**个人犯罪**是最典型的例子，因为这不仅仅是……想象一下，当我们坐着看新闻时，我们看到很多事情，我们觉得与我们无关，比如另一辆拖车着火了，他们在做什么？但这并不真正触及我们。但入室盗窃会。你知道，我们能感受到。因此，我们更有可能记住那些故事。当我们估计事件发生的概率时，我们使用的一种方法叫做“**可得性启发法**”。我们能多快地想起那个事件的例子。而这些入室盗窃的例子会很快浮现在脑海中。所以它们可能对我们如何计算事件发生的可能性产生不成比例的影响。我们可能认为它的可能性远高于实际情况。
Original English **Steve Joordens**: Yeah, and I really want to follow up on that. You know, those personal crimes like the home invasion is the prototypical because it's not just like, imagine when we sit and watch the news, we see a bunch of things that we don't think really, you know, another tow truck is on fire and they're. And what are these tow truck people doing? But it doesn't really feel personal to us. The home invasions, do. You know, we can kind of feel that. And as a result, we're more likely to remember those stories. And when we estimate the probabilities of events, one of the things we use is something called the availability heuristic. How quickly can we bring to mind examples of that event. And these home invasions come to mind pretty quickly. So they're probably having a disproportionate impact on on how we all, you know, figure out how likely is this. And we probably think it's far more likely than it is.
**主持人**: 能否帮助我们稍微理解一下大脑是如何工作的？你知道，当我们看到社交媒体上的视频，看到新闻里的视频时，我们的本能是什么？我们正在做什么？我想我们在这里，在加拿大，已经有很多关于房主可以采取哪些法律措施来保护自己的讨论了。你知道，当我们谈论恐惧时，有“战”，有“逃”，还有“僵”。请帮助我们理解，当我观看社交媒体上的抢劫视频时，大脑是如何工作的？
Original English **Host**: Help us understand a little bit in terms of the brain. You know, when we see these videos on social media, when we see these videos on the news, what what is our instinct? What are we doing? Is it I think we've had a lot of conversation of, you know, here in Canada about, you know, what laws we can do as homeowners to protect ourselves. There is this, you know, when we talk about the, you know, the fear, there's the flight, there is the freeze. Help us understand sort of how the brain is working when when I am watching a video of a smash and grab on social media.
**Steve Joordens**: 是的，是的。所以，实际上，进入大脑的每一个感官信息都会经过这些叫做**杏仁核**的小东西，它们是我们大脑两侧各有一个的杏仁核状部分。杏仁核的工作是感知危险。它在那里是为了让我们活下来。当它检测到威胁时，威胁是一个非常普遍的概念，不一定非得是有人拿着棒球棒。它可能是一种尴尬或社交上的威胁。它们会启动这种“战、逃、僵”系统。在社交媒体上，“僵”真的没什么意义。“逃”。我希望更多的人能逃离社交媒体，而不是他们现在所做的。他们没有。那么这给你留下了什么呢？它让你“战”。而在社交媒体上，“战”实际上意味着分享，让人们知道，“嘿，这里有危险。”所以这是另一种放大。现在，某件让你害怕的事情，你更有可能分享它。而这会让它对其他人来说更普遍。
Original English **Steve Joordens**: Yeah, yeah. So really, every sensory bit of information that comes into the brain goes through these little things called the amygdala, a little almond shaped part of our brain on either side. And the amygdala's job is to sense danger. It's it's there to keep us alive. And when it detects something threatening and threat is in a very general sense, it doesn't have to be somebody with a baseball bat. It could be an embarrassment or social, you know, threats. They'll kick in this fight, flight freeze system in social media. You know, freeze doesn't really make a whole lot of sense. Flee. I wish a lot more people were fleeing social media than they are. They're not. So what does that leave you? It leaves you. Fight and fight in social media really means to share, to kind of let people know, hey, here's this danger. And so that's another amplification. Now, something that scares you, you're more likely to share. And that's going to make it more prevalent for everybody else.
**主持人**: Jennifer，当我们看到人们在街上吸食**毒品**，或者有人在公共场合出现**精神健康问题**时，这对我们的安全感有什么影响？
Original English **Host**: Jennifer, when we see people doing, for example, hard drugs on the street or someone having a mental health episode in public, what does that do to our sense of safety?
**Jennifer Magnus**: 这会增加恐惧感，因为很多时候你感到无助，而且由于加拿大许多城市和地区**警力不足**，他们觉得安全元素并不总是随时可用。我可以亲身说，我以前在卡尔加里市中心工作，那时不像现在这么糟糕。我知道当我走在卡尔加里市中心时，你会看到无家可归的人，你会看到吸毒的人，比如那些吸食冰毒或其他什么东西的人。这很可怕，因为他们会变得具有对抗性。很多时候，人们不知道在这种情况下如何反应。
Original English **Jennifer Magnus**: Well, it creates a greater level of fear, because oftentimes you feel helpless, and because a lot of cities and areas across Canada are having less police officers, they feel that that safety element isn't always readily available to them. And I can personally say that I used to work downtown Calgary, and it wasn't as bad as it is now. And I know that when I'm walking in downtown Calgary, I mean, you see homeless individuals, you see drug people like people whacked out on whether it's meth or whatever it is. And it is it's frightening because they become confrontational. And a lot of times people don't know how to react in those situations.
**Steve Joordens**: 是的。而且即使他们不具有对抗性，我们的大脑自然也会对我们不太了解的事物感到恐惧。这些人可能也是我们不太了解的人。但是，当我们看到街上的一些人，我们不太明白他们是怎么变成这样的，我们也不太确定他们是否危险。你知道，很多经历无家可归的人，比如，他们根本不危险。但是因为我们不真正理解，所以这对大脑来说是可怕的。大脑喜欢能够预测人们将如何反应以及人们将如何行事。当我们觉得我们无法预测时，我们不确定他们会做什么，那么他们就会变得可怕。
Original English **Steve Joordens**: Yeah. And even when they don't become confrontational, the brain naturally is fearful of things we don't understand very well. And those could be people's we don't understand very well. But again, when we see, you know, some of these individuals on the street and we don't quite get how they got there, and we don't really understand if they're dangerous or not. You know, a lot a lot of the people experiencing homelessness, for example, are not dangerous at all. But because we don't really understand that it's scary to the brain. The the brain likes to be able to predict how people are going to respond and how people are going to act. When we feel like we don't have that prediction, we're not sure what they're going to do, then they become scary.
**Jennifer Magnus**: 是的。所以，我们现在正在做的研究，很多警察实际上说，无家可归的人们担心自己的生命安全，因为他们住在帐篷城，住在他们感到不安全的地方，而且他们无处可去。所以，我同意 Steve 的说法，这对那些个体来说绝对是一种威胁。
Original English **Jennifer Magnus**: Yeah. So I was just going to jump in with the study that we're doing right now. A lot of police officers are actually saying that the homeless population are fearful for their lives because they're they're living in tent cities. They're living in areas where they don't feel safe and they have nowhere else to go. And so that I agree with what Steve is saying is that is absolutely a threatening thing for even those individuals.
**主持人**: Jennifer，你是卡尔加里警察局的一名警察，有 14 年的经验。你提到**警官短缺**，增加**可见的警力**是否是解决人们恐惧的一种潜在方法？
Original English **Host**: Jennifer, I want to stick with you. You were a police officer with Calgary Police Services for 14 years. You had mentioned sort of the shortage of police officers is having more visible police presence, a potential answer to addressing people's fears?
**Jennifer Magnus**: 绝对是。在卡尔加里，警察局长实际上让我们的治安官或省警察部门与卡尔加里警察局合作，他们所做的就是走遍卡尔加里市中心，与人们交谈，处理犯罪问题，由此带来的安全感提升是惊人的。我认为这实际上也是卡尔加里警察局在市中心实施**步行巡逻**的原因，因为在高层建筑工作的人们感到不安全。所以，增加地面警力，增加可见警力，可以真正地给人们带来安全感。
Original English **Jennifer Magnus**: Absolutely. And in Calgary here, the chief of police actually had our sheriffs or our provincial police service partner with the Calgary police, and all they did was walk around downtown Calgary talking to people, dealing with the crime element and the level of safety that resulted in that initiative was amazing. And I think that is actually why the Calgary police put in a foot patrol in downtown Calgary, because individuals working in the high rises were feeling less safe, and so having more boots on the ground and visible, police can actually give individuals that level of safety.
**主持人**: 对于那些与警察关系不好的人或社区呢？Jennifer。
Original English **Host**: What about people who have or communities rather that have a poor relationship with police? Jennifer.
**Jennifer Magnus**: 在这种情况下，我认为很重要，也是警察的责任，去与那些人互动和接触。我知道卡尔加里警察局和 RCMP 也一样，他们会举办社区论坛，邀请那些可能对警察如何运作有疑问的人，特别是那些来自不同国家、与警察关系不好的人，并试图建立这些关系。我认为这些都非常重要。我还会建议人们尝试参加**骑乘体验**，这样他们就能看到警察每天都在处理什么，并认识到这是一项艰巨的工作。
Original English **Jennifer Magnus**: In that case, I think it's important and incumbent on the police to interact and engage with those individuals. And I know that the Calgary police and the RCMP as well, they hold community forums which invite individuals that maybe have questions about how the police function if they come from a different country, where the relationship with the police is is not a good one, and trying to build those relationships, and I think those are very important. And I would also suggest that people try and do ride alongs so they can see what police actually deal with on a day to day basis and see that it is a difficult job.
**主持人**: Steve，我想象一下，即使在多伦多，对于那些乘坐公共交通的人来说，看到身穿制服的人可能会让他们感到安全。我只是想知道，你认为增加警力是答案，还是我们需要解决这些问题的**根源**？
Original English **Host**: Steve, I imagine for some people, even here in Toronto, for people who take transit, for example, seeing someone in uniform might help them, give them a sense of safety. And I'm just wondering, do you think a greater police presence is the answer, or do we need to address perhaps the root cause of some of these issues?
**Steve Joordens**: 我的意思是，当涉及到感知时，这可能很棘手。显然，我们希望解决根源问题。我们希望努力减少犯罪。但是，当然，有警察在周围，特别是正如 Jennifer 所建议的，如果你觉得与那些警察感到舒适和亲近，如果他们有那种社区警务的氛围，这对我们来说是这样的：如果我们坐在地铁上，有几个角色让我们有点不确定，又有点害怕，因为我们不知道他们会怎么做。你知道，如果附近有警察，我知道这听起来有点糟糕，但这就是社会运作的方式。那是他们的问题，对吧？如果那个人开始怎么样了，我不用去管。要么逃跑，要么真的，你知道，介入。上帝保佑，很多人都会担心这样做。所以，要知道，“嘿，那是他们的工作。当事情开始出错时，他们会介入。”这意味着我不用。这是一种巨大的安慰。这也是我们每天依赖警察的原因。
Original English **Steve Joordens**: I mean, when it comes to perceptions, it can be tricky. Obviously we want to be after the root causes. We want to try to reduce crime. But but certainly having police officers around, especially as Jennifer suggests, if you feel comfortable and connected to those officers, if they have that community policing kind of vibe, what that does for us is if we're on the subway and there's some characters that we're a little unsure of again, and we're getting a little scared because we don't know how they're going to act. You know, if there's an officer nearby, we know this is going to sound kind of nasty, but this is how society works. It's their problem, right? If that person starts to get whatever, I don't have to do something about it. Either escape or actually, you know, step in. God forbid many of us would be worried about doing that. So to know, hey, that's their job. When when things start to go wrong, they're going to step in. And that means I don't have to. That's that's a huge level of comfort. And it's what we rely on on officers for every day.
**主持人**: 我现在必须问这个问题，Jennifer，你显然不是代表任何警察部门说话，特别是多伦多警察局，该部门在 2024 年家庭入室盗窃案达到顶峰时受到了很多关注。我不知道你是否听说了这个故事，但有一名警察建议居民将车钥匙放在门前，以避免与窃贼发生冲突。信息传递是如何影响这个问题的？因为，你知道，对于很多听到这个信息的居民来说，就像 Steve 说的那样，看到警察可能没关系，“好吧，那现在不是我的问题了。那是他们的问题。”但如果警察在某些情况下似乎在“推卸责任”，那么安全感和安全感认知就会受到侵蚀。
Original English **Host**: I do have to ask this question now, Jennifer, you don't obviously speak for any police service right now, specifically the Toronto Police Service, which is one service that got a lot of attention in 2024 when this was at the height of home invasions. I don't know if you had heard the story, but there was a police officer that had suggested that residents leave their car keys at the front of the door to avoid confrontation with thieves. How does messaging sort of play into this? Because one, you know, for for a lot of residents who heard that message, just like Steve said, seeing a police officer might be okay, well, that's now not my problem. It's their problem. But if police are perhaps passing the puck in certain situations, that that safety and that that perception of safety has eroded.
**Jennifer Magnus**: 我很高兴你提到了这一点。我非常清楚那件事。我和我那些还在当警察的朋友们讨论过。我不同意这种想法。你反而应该考虑安装**摄像头**，因为摄像头不仅让你感觉更安全，还能帮助警察确定谁可能闯入或试图闯入。在我看来，提供安全建议比说“把你的钥匙扣放在门前”要好，这就像说“干脆把门锁打开”，基本上就是说“进来随便拿，你没事”。我认为这会在公众中造成这种敌意，当他们看到警察似乎在推卸责任时，就像“这不是我们的问题，让他们拿走他们需要的东西，然后继续生活吧”。但是，正如 Steve 所说，我也提到过，当有人闯入你的家时，那是一种对你个人空间的侵犯，这会造成长期的创伤和恐惧。
Original English **Jennifer Magnus**: And I'm actually glad you brought that up. I'm well aware of that incident. And among my friends who continue to be police officers, we've discussed that. I disagree with that form of idea. You instead, they should be looking at things like, okay, installing cameras because cameras not only make you feel safer, they help the police determine who may be broke in or is trying to break into their place. Giving them ideas for safety would be a better idea, in my view, than saying, leave your key fob at the front door like it's akin to saying just leave your door unlocked, right, and say, pretty much, come in and take what you want and you're good. And I think that creates this animosity amongst the public when they see the police are almost passing the buck, like it's not our problem, just let them take what they need and then get on with your life. But like Steve said, and I alluded to, when someone breaks into your home, that's a violation of your personal space, and that creates a level of trauma and fear for a long time after all.
**主持人**: 好的，我们还有不到一分钟的时间。我想了解一下，Steve，如果人们对社区的犯罪感到焦虑，他们应该如何应对？
Original English **Host**: Right. We have about just under a minute or so, and I want to get a sense if people are feeling anxious, Steve, about crime in their communities, how should they try to navigate around them?
**Steve Joordens**: 我的意思是，总的来说，信息很重要。Jennifer 建议去参加骑乘体验。我不知道我们是否可以随便参加骑乘体验？如果我们能，那会很酷。但是，我认为，你知道，了解警察正在做出的努力，以及你和你的社区，你知道，你可以……我们想到过去的**邻里守望计划**之类的事情。但是，字面上说，这种社会联系带来了很多安全感，即使是联系你的邻居，说，“嘿，这里有点问题。我们能一起努力，关注社区，如果有什么不对劲就互相告知吗？”你知道，感觉这是一种社区努力，我认为可以让你感觉更安全。
Original English **Steve Joordens**: I mean, generally, information is great. Jennifer suggested going a ride along. I don't know, can any of us just go on a ride along? It's kind of cool if we can, but but I think, you know, getting a sense of the efforts that the police are making and how you and potentially your neighbourhood, you know, you can. We think of old neighbourhood watch programs and things like that. But but literally there's a lot of security in that social connection that even comes from reaching out to your neighbours and saying, you know, hey, there's a bit of an issue here. Can can we work together and have eyes on the neighbourhood and let each other know if anything seems up? You know, feeling like that's that's part of a community effort I think can help you feel a lot more secure.
**Jennifer Magnus**: 我还想补充一点，教育自己了解法院系统以及个人如何被释放，理解那个过程，理解警察是如何运作的。就像我说的，看看他们是如何工作的，这对于让社会感到更安全大有裨益，因为他们看到了实际正在遵循和完成的程序。
Original English **Jennifer Magnus**: I would also adding on to that, educating yourself about the court systems and how individuals are released, understanding that process, understanding how police function. And like I go back to seeing how they do their job can go a long way and making society feel safer because they see there actually is processes that are being followed and done.
**主持人**: 我们得在这里结束了。Jennifer，Steve，非常感谢你们的见解。非常感谢。
Original English **Host**: We're going to have to leave it there. Jennifer. Steve, really appreciate your insights on this one. Thank you so much.
**Jennifer Magnus**: 谢谢，谢谢。
Original English **Jennifer Magnus**: Thank you, thank you.
**主持人**: 我们希望这个节目能为你服务，为你关心的事情发声。你想让我们报道什么？请访问 TVO.org/rundownfeedback 告诉我们，或者给我们留言。在那之前，明天见。
Original English **Host**: We want this show to be for you and about the things that matter to you. What do you want us to cover? Let us know by going to TVO.org/rundownfeedback or leave us a comment on Until then, see you tomorrow.