共和党的罕见反叛:特朗普第二任期内的国会权力博弈 New York Times Podcasts 2026-06-08

权力让渡与服从的终结

唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的第二任期初期,共和党(Republican Party)控制的美国国会(Congress)曾表现出极度的顺从。国会议员们不仅避免挑战总统的权威,甚至主动在支出、关税(Tariffs)和外交政策等关键领域让渡原本属于立法机构的核心权力。这种姿态一度让人怀疑国会是否已经彻底沦为行政机构的附庸。

然而,在过去几周内,这种权力动态发生了罕见的逆转。共和党人开始在多个战线发起反叛,拒绝推进总统的优先事项,并迫使政府放弃某些提案。这种抵抗主要集中在两个核心议题上:一是对伊朗的战争决策;二是特朗普提议设立的近20亿美元的武器化基金(Weaponization Fund: 特朗普计划用于补偿其受过度起诉盟友的政府资金)。这种转变就像是一群长期顺从的听话孩子,突然决定对父亲的指令说“不”。

Original English Source From the New York Times, I'm Michael Barbara. This is the daily. In ways big and small, the Republican controlled Congress has begun rebelling against President Trump as never before on everything from the war in Iran to his plan to use taxpayer money to pay his allies. Today, congressional editor Julie Davis on whether the uprising is a preview of a new dynamic in Washington or a temporary show of independence that will vanish just as quickly as it arrived. It's Monday, June 8th. Julie, it's wonderful to see you.

Great to see you, Michael. Thank you for coming on the show. I appreciate it. Thanks for having me. I would say, Julie, I don't think you're going to contest this, that from the first moment of Trump's second term, the question on kind of everyone's mind was whether the manner in which the president had consolidated his power had basically rendered this Congress, this Republican Congress irrelevant. Right? Right? I mean, it very much looked like a co-equal branch of government was choosing subservience very willingly. And we started to ask the question, is Congress over? And the answer over the past 10 days or so seemed to change and now it feels more like a no. It's not over.

Yeah. I mean, I think in the first months of President Trump's second term, we were actually surprised on the Hill to see the degree to which Republicans were just deferring to him on everything. not just refusing to challenge him on things, but actively kind of giving back their power on some pretty key things on spending, on trade and tariffs, on foreign policy, things that you typically see Congress jealously guarding as its own prerogatives, finding every possible way to give it over to the White House, and really even just avoiding voting on things altogether.

Right? It was literally like a kid in the playground saying, "Take this toy. Take this toy. Take this shovel. Take this truck." Right? That was really all we were seeing from Republicans when it came to President Trump. But in the last few weeks, we have seen some pretty rare and unusual resistance coming from Republicans. They're refusing to act on legislation that's a big priority for him, refusing to move on the timelines that he's set out for them. They're stripping things from legislation and forcing the administration to drop proposals that they don't like.

And in the case of the war in Iran, they're actually using their power to push back on President Trump. They're basically rebelling. They're rebelling. To go back to your playground metaphor, Michael, it's a little bit like a group of kids who have obeyed their daddy for many, many months on pretty much everything and are finally just saying, "No, daddy, we're not going to do this for you." Mhm. That's quite a vivid completion of the metaphor. So, take us behind the scenes of this rebellion, if that's what we're going to be calling it. And we'll get to how durable it is and how far it may or may not go. But let's just understand it to the extent that it has been unfolding. On the surface, a lot of it seemed to revolve around the weaponization fund, the president's nearly $2 billion effort to compensate people he claims are victims of overzealous government prosecution. But my sense is that that's not quite the full story.

政治清算与YOLO联盟

在表面议题的背后,共和党反叛的根本动力源于政治生存危机。随着中期选举的临近,特朗普开始在共和党初选阶段进行深度干预,直接针对那些原本广受欢迎的现任议员。这种将个人意志置于党派利益之上的行为,彻底激怒了国会的共和党人。

两个标志性的政治清洗事件成为了引爆点:

  • 在路易斯安那州,特朗普支持挑战者击败了参议院健康委员会主席比尔·卡西迪(Bill Cassidy),原因仅仅是卡西迪曾在1月6日事件后的弹劾审判中投票支持定罪。
  • 在得克萨斯州,特朗普在初选最后时刻突然背书司法部长肯·帕克斯顿(Ken Paxton),这直接危及了资深参议员约翰·科宁(John Cornyn)的连任前景。这种背刺行为让国会共和党人感到震惊和愤怒。

这种残酷的政治清算意外催生了一个被称为**“YOLO”核心小组**(YOLO Caucus: 指代因失去连任希望而无所畏惧的国会议员联盟)的反抗力量。该联盟由两类人组成:一是像苏珊·柯林斯(Susan Collins)这样身处摇摆选区的温和派议员;二是那些已经在初选中被特朗普支持的挑战者击败的“跛脚鸭”议员(如托马斯·马西(Tom Massie))。这些即将离任的议员已经失去了对特朗普保持盲目忠诚的政治动机。他们与处于险境的温和派结盟,构成了国会对抗总统权力的核心骨干。

Original English Source >> Yeah. It actually started long before the Trump administration announced that they were creating that fund. This has been percolating for many weeks. And it's really, I think, a matter of Republicans sort of slowly and then very quickly waking up to the reality that a lot of what President Trump is doing is actually counter to their own political interests. Let's remember that we are just months away from the midterm elections and Trump is intervening in Republican primaries against some pretty popular members of their caucus who are incumbents who are fighting for their political lives. Mhm.

He intervenes in Louisiana, endorses a Republican congresswoman who's running against Bill Cassidy, the senator who's the head of the health committee, who has spent years in trying to ingratiate himself with Trump after having voted to convict him at his impeachment trial after January 6th. But Trump ultimately decided he wanted to take him out and did and he did and he did. But the second Senate primary where President Trump intervened and I think the more stinging one that made Republicans a lot angrier was in Texas where Senator John Cornin had been facing a challenge from Ken Paxton, the attorney general. They were in a runoff. It was going to be a competitive one. President Trump had stayed neutral and days before the primary he weighs in and endorses Ken Paxton. And that news that the president was going to do that just hit Republicans on the Hill like a bomb. They were completely irate in part because Cornin was seen as the much stronger candidate who would be able to win that seat without having to spend a lot of money without having to really worry about it cuz there are obviously a lot of other seats that they need to be worrying about defending in the midterm year. So that just soured the mood among Republicans who are sort of looking around, seeing that President Trump's agenda is getting less and less popular with voters, seeing that he's doing things really they feel like are for himself and not for the good of the party. You know, Republicans are fighting to hold on to majorities in both chambers and they have an uphill battle. And there started to be a real feeling like he was making it harder for them.

Mhm. And I should say that both of these senators are cost them re-election. This goes back to what you were saying earlier that at the heart of this Republican rebellion is this very strong sense that the president is not looking out for the best interests of the Republican party. Right? This is a president who has said in recent weeks that he doesn't care about the financial impact on Americans when he's thinking about the war. He doesn't care about the midterms. And Republicans are starting to look around and say like, well, where does that leave us?

And by this point, we're starting to see some interesting coalitions form here to really be the spine of this push back against Trump. You have swing district Republicans like Senator Susan Collins was among the senators who voted for the war powers resolution in the Senate. Brian Fitzpatrick, Tom Barrett of Michigan were the ones in the House. Purple state lawmakers, right? But you also have this other faction, you know, who are starting to get the nickname of the YOLO caucus that have been targeted by the president. They've been ousted and are lame ducks and they don't have a reason anymore to be unbendingly loyal to Donald Trump. Bill Cassidy already lost his re-election. John Cornin lost his re-election. Tom Massie was another Republican who voted for the War Powers Act in the House, lost his primary to a Trump backed challenger just a few weeks ago. So, they're sort of conspiring with these people who have everything to lose politically. They have nothing to lose politically, but the result is the same that they are willing to push back on a president who is not used to being resisted.

短暂觉醒与妥协的底色

尽管反叛的声音显得格外响亮,但这种抵抗的持久性依然存疑。YOLO联盟的结构性缺陷在于其成员的“临时性”——当他们的任期在年底结束时,取代他们的将是特朗普的绝对忠诚者。因此,他们对总统构成的政治威胁注定是有限的。

实际上,在国会的立法博弈中,共和党的反抗依然是有底线的。在最近通过的一项关键移民法案(Immigration Bill)中,我们看到了这种微妙的平衡。一方面,共和党人利用民主党的提议,成功阻击了特朗普的“武器化基金”,并试图阻止有争议的官员任命;但另一方面,他们绝对不会为了对抗总统而阻挠党派核心议程的推进。

这种动态反映了华盛顿的一个冷酷现实:政治生存高于一切。只要特朗普的议程与共和党的整体利益在大多数领域保持重合,系统性的决裂就不会发生。然而,在总统出于个人恩怨而不断创造政治裂痕的背景下,随着11月选举的逼近,这种基于生存本能的战术性反叛将成为美国政治舞台上的新常态。同时,在宏观的国际视角下,从总统试图淡化伊朗冲突,到中东局势因真主党(Hezbollah)与以色列的交火而持续升级,国内的政治分歧不可避免地与地缘危机交织在一起,增加了未来的不确定性。

Original English Source >> Right? And of course, the thing to note about the so-called YOLO coalition is they might not have anything left to lose, but they're not going to be in their jobs much longer. They can fight the president until their term is up at the end of the year, and then inevitably they're being replaced by people who are very loyal to the president. potentially someone like Ken Paxton if he wins the general election and therefore the threat that they pose to the president is inherently temporary. We're saying >> absolutely and it's not clear how far any of them are willing to go with this. Right. We saw Senator Cassidy vote for the War Powers Act. We didn't see John Cornin cross party lines on that. He's a very loyal Republican and we have yet to see him really manifest his you know grievance if he feels any toward the president in a vote. But the fact remains that their political incentive to doing whatever the president wants them to do has vastly diminished.

Well, I think Julie that gets at the ultimate question that we have to ask here, which is how durable and potent is this resistance likely to be in the long term? Obviously, a unique set of circumstances played out here all at once where the president ousted popular members of the Republican party from their jobs. That made folks really angry. Then he dropped this idea of the weaponization fund into everyone's laps. That made them angry. That doesn't happen every day. And how likely are these congressional Republicans over time to snap back into this more subservient role that Trump has conditioned them to take?

Right. It's it's a great question. It's the question to ask and it's instructive to look at what happened Thursday and Friday where Republicans finally were able to pass their immigration bill. And what we see is that given the opportunity by Democrats to go a step further and actually put it in writing in law that there can never be President Trump's compensation fund for his political allies. Republicans figure out a way to block that, not to vote for that. And that allows them to keep this immigration bill, this top priority of President Trump, on track. But even as they're handing him this big victory, there were all these signs still of how Republicans were sort of parting ways with and finding ways to distance themselves from Trump.

Before the immigration bill passed, there was this long series of votes overnight and into Friday morning. They call it a voterama where there were a series of amendments offered to the bill and there were some Republican votes for those proposals including several votes on the fund and a proposal to say that Trump could never use any federal money for his ballroom. The same was true on a Democratic proposal to try to block him from naming Bill Py, the housing director, as the director of national intelligence. Another thing that had really enraged a lot of Republicans. None of these things ultimately were able to succeed and be added to the bill. But the fact that Republicans were willing to vote the way they did showed that there is at least some mood in their ranks, which hasn't really existed before, to resist what the president is demanding of them, right?

And I think that's kind of where we're seeing them land. They're not going to be willing to derail their own party's agenda in the service of defying Trump, right? They still want to keep their immigration bill and their message to voters on track because in the end what this really is about is them trying to do what they think is best for themselves in the party. And their agendas overlap with his in many ways in most ways. But where there is some daylight and the president keeps on creating this daylight closer and closer we get to November, they're going to push back and rebel. And that marks a new chapter in the story of this president and the Republican Congress.

Well, Julie, thank you very much as always. Appreciate your time. Thank you, Michael. Same here.

In an interview on Sunday with NBC's Meet the Press, President Trump acknowledged the bipartisan opposition that killed his so-called weaponization fund. It's been blocked by the courts, met with opposition from Republicans and Democrats in Congress and Democrats. Excuse me. Mostly Democrats. Mostly Democrats and some Republicans. Very few Republicans. But said he still supported the idea in theory. Well, it's look, it was up to me. I'd pay them the kind of money that they deserve. People have been destroyed. Lives have been destroyed. During the interview, Trump also sought to downplay the war in Iran and the growing doubts that surround it. I call it a military exercise because people would rather have it called that. It's not a big war for us. It's not. We have the most powerful. The latest version of the War Powers Resolution against the war, already passed in the House, now heads to the Senate. Under congressional rules, the Senate must either pass or reject the resolution in the next few weeks. We'll be right back.

Here's what else you need to know today. On Sunday, Iran fired ballistic missiles toward Israel, the first time Iran has done so since a ceasefire began in early April. Sunday's attack was in response to a deadly Israeli air strike in Lebanon that targeted Hezbollah, a militant group backed by Iran. Israel said it intercepted all the Iranian missiles and a few hours later it fired back at Iran. The back and forth threatens to escalate a conflict that has been largely contained and further complicates peace talks between the United States and Iran that have sputtered for weeks.

Today's episode was produced by Chris Benderev, Mary Wilson, Anna Foley, and Olivia Nad. It was edited by Rachel Quester and Rob Zipco and contains music by Pat McCusker, Dan Powell, Alicia Baube, and Marian Lozano. Our theme music is by Wonderly. This episode was engineered by Chris Wood. That's it for the daily. I'm Meccao. See you tomorrow.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

人物: Donald Trump

公司/组织: Republican Party

关键字: political-rebellion power-dynamics party-loyalty