中东冲突的涟漪效应:能源安全与全球经济的严峻挑战
在中东地区,一系列导弹袭击事件已造成石油设施的广泛破坏,标志着一场新阶段的冲突。以色列对“南帕斯”天然气田的打击引发了伊朗的报复威胁,促使经济学家们对全球经济的长期损害发出严峻警告。此前,国际社会的焦点主要集中在霍尔木兹海峡的航运安全上,普遍认为若此关键通道得以疏通,油轮及其他船只的通行将恢复正常,燃油价格也会随之回落。然而,随着炼油厂和天然气田等关键能源基础设施成为攻击目标,此次冲突的影响已远超预期,可能在未来数年内持续显现。
国际能源署(International Energy Agency)负责人指出,当前这场战争是对全球能源安全构成的历史性最大威胁。该地区至少有40处能源资产遭受了严重或极严重的破坏。例如,卡塔尔一个主要的能源综合体便遭受重创;该设施约生产了全球五分之一的液化天然气(liquefied natural gas),这是亚洲和欧洲家庭取暖、烹饪以及工厂供能的关键能源。据官方估计,该设施的修复工作可能长达五年。这类持续的供应中断不仅会推高全球能源价格,高企的能源成本进而会拖累经济增长、增加失业率,并加速通货膨胀(inflation)的进程。一家能源咨询公司已发出预警:此前每桶约73美元的石油价格,在战争爆发后已突破100美元,并可能在本年度内飙升至每桶200美元。若此预测成真,专家忧虑经济体将不可避免地陷入衰退(recession)。
与此同时,关于战争持续时间以及未来是否会有更多能源基础设施遭受攻击,市场信号混乱,充满冲突。美国总统宣称与伊朗进行了“富有成效的对话”,但伊朗议会领导人却斥之为“假新闻”。《纽约时报》获悉,尽管双方确有信息往来,但美国官员表示,谈判并未取得实质性进展,与总统的说法存在差异。
此外,美国政府与一家法国能源公司达成了一项不同寻常的协议:美国将支付近10亿美元给道达尔能源(Total Energies),以换取该公司放弃在美东海岸建设海上风电场的计划。此前,该公司已在拜登政府时期获得了纽约和北卡罗来纳海岸的风电租赁权。现在,美国将承担这笔费用。作为交换,道达尔能源承诺将这笔资金投资于美国的石油和天然气项目。这项交易被视为一项显著的国家税收转移,旨在通过牺牲可再生能源项目来促进化石燃料的生产。特朗普(Trump)总统多年来一直抨击风力发电,称其项目“丑陋”,并无证据地声称其“惹恼了鲸鱼”。
Original English
From the New York Times, it's the
headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today's
Tuesday, March 24th. Here's what we're
covering
in the Middle East.
Now, the missile attacks here reportedly
caused extensive damage at oil
facilities throughout the region.
A recent wave of attacks on energy
infrastructure has marked a new phase in
the war. After Israel struck the South
Pass gas field,
Iran vowing to retaliate unleash
and economists are raising the alarm
that the damage to the global economy
could be long-term. Until now, much of
the attention has been on the straight
of Hormuz, whether oil tankers and other
ships can get in or out. The idea is if
that's resolved, things will get flowing
again. Fuel prices will come back down.
But with targets like refineries and gas
fields coming under fire, the effects
could be felt for years.
Let me explain you how challenging the
situation is.
Yesterday, the head of the International
Energy Agency said the war is the
biggest threat to global energy security
in history.
There are at least 40
energy assets in the region are severely
or very severely damaged. One site
that's been hit, for example, is a vast
Qatari complex that produces roughly a
fifth of the world's liqufied natural
gas that's used to heat homes, cook
food, and power factories across Asia
and Europe. An official said it could
take up to 5 years to repair. All the
disruptions like that could continue to
drive up global energy prices, and high
energy prices tend to slow economic
growth, increase unemployment, and speed
up inflation.
One energy consulting firm is now
warning that oil, which was about $73 a
barrel before the war and has now
crossed 100, could climb to as high as
$200 a barrel by the end of the year. If
that happens, one expert told the Times,
quote, I couldn't fathom we would not
start seeing economies fall into a
recession.
Meanwhile, there's been a slew of
conflicting signals on how long the war
could last and whether any more energy
infrastructure could come under fire.
President Trump declared yesterday that
the US and Iran had had what he called
productive conversations. An Iranian
parliamentary leader dismissed that as
fake news. The Times has learned that
while some messages have been going back
and forth, US officials say the
negotiations have not been substantive
despite Trump's claims.
And last update on the administration,
the White House has struck an unusual
deal with a French energy company. The
US is going to pay nearly $1 billion to
Total Energies to abandon its plans to
build wind farms off the East Coast. The
company paid for leases under the Biden
administration to build off New York and
North Carolina. The US will now
reimburse it for that. In exchange,
Total Energies is supposed to invest
that money in oil and gas projects in
the US. The deal is a remarkable
transfer of taxpayer dollars to a
foreign company for the purposes of
boosting the production of fossil fuels
while throttling a renewable energy
source. Trump has railed against wind
power for years, calling the projects
ugly and claiming without evidence that
they are quote driving whales crazy.
美国政坛风云与航空安全调查
在国际局势之外,美国国内政治也呈现出复杂动态。围绕国土安全部(DHS)的资金僵局,参议院曾一度接近达成一项获得两党支持的协议,该协议本可为DHS提供资金,但总统特朗普(President Trump)否决了该交易。参议员约翰·肯尼迪(Senator John Kennedy)透露,共和党人原先准备接受民主党提出的方案,即暂时不包含移民及海关执法局(ICE)的资金。然而,一旦总统被告知此事,他便立即将其压制。特朗普总统明确表示,他打算利用此次关于DHS拨款的僵局,作为推动其“投票者身份识别法案”(voter ID bill)的筹码。
缺乏DHS的协议意味着美国运输安全管理局(TSA)的特工将继续面临欠薪,这已导致美国国内航空旅行出现大范围延误,乘客不得不忍受数小时的安检队伍。与此同时,参议院投票确认了马克·韦恩·穆伦(Mark Wayne Mullen)担任俄克拉荷马州国土安全部长(Secretary of Homeland Security)的提名。穆伦接替了因一系列争议和两起美国公民被联邦移民特工杀害事件而遭特朗普解雇的前部长克里斯蒂·格诺姆(Christy Gnome)。鉴于国内持续的政治动荡,穆伦在上任初期将面临严峻考验。在其提名确认听证会上,他表现出比前任更为温和与合作的态度,但同时也明确表示致力于执行特朗普总统严打非法移民的承诺。
在近期发生的拉瓜迪亚机场飞机相撞事故调查方面,知情人士透露,联邦调查人员正重点审视事故发生前,一名空中交通管制员是否因分心而导致了此次致命碰撞。事故发生前,控制塔的录音显示,一名当班管制员正在处理另一架航班的问题,并指示一辆消防车通过跑道,而此时一架加拿大航空公司的航班正准备降落。一名航班乘客回忆,她听到巨大的摩擦声,起初以为是飞行员在尝试刹车,随后她被抛向前,人们开始尖叫。碰撞的巨大冲击力将一名空中乘务员抛出飞机,她仍系在座位上落到跑道上。她是数十名受伤人员之一,而飞机上的两名飞行员均在事故中身亡。国家运输安全委员会(NTSB)表示,调查工作因初期一些专家在安检线滞留而进展缓慢,尽管机场已部分重新开放,但全面清理残骸仍需时间。
Original English
Now, a few more quick updates on the
Trump administration. From the Homeland
Security shutdown to an extraordinary
transfer of taxpayer dollars. First,
it would have worked. We could have had
TSA paid by the end of the week, but uh
the president said no deals. So, my
plan,
there was almost a bipartisan agreement
in the Senate over the DHS shutdown, but
President Trump has nixed it. GOP
Senator John Kennedy told Fox News that
he and other Republicans were prepared
to accept a deal from Democrats that
would have funded all of DHS except ICE
for now. But when the president was
looped in, he quashed it.
And I'm suggesting strongly to the
Republican party, don't make any deal on
anything. The most important thing we
can have is what's called the Save
America Act. Don't make any deal on
anything unless you include voter ID.
Yesterday, Trump made clear he wants to
leverage the funding standoff as a way
to push his voter ID bill. Without a
deal on DHS, TSA agents will continue to
go unpaid, which has already caused
widespread disruption to air travel in
the US as some passengers wait in hours
long security lines. on this vote.
Also in the Senate,
the eyes are 54, the nays are
The
nomination of Mark Wayne Mullen of
Oklahoma to be Secretary of Homeland
Security is confirmed.
Mark Wayne Mullen was confirmed as the
next leader of DHS, taking over from
Christy Gnome, who Trump fired after a
string of controversies and national
outrage over the killings of two US
citizens by federal immigration agents.
All of that combined with the ongoing
shutdown make it a tenuous time for
Mullen to step into the role. In his
confirmation hearing, he struck a less
combative and more cooperative tone than
his predecessor, but he's made clear
he's committed to fulfilling Trump's
promise to crack down on illegal
immigration.
In New York, a person briefed on the
federal investigation into the deadly
crash at LaGuardia on Sunday tells the
Times that officials are looking into
whether an air traffic controller there
was distracted moments before the
accident.
Warning company tower requesting to
cross at Delta. One company cross delta.
Recordings from the control tower show
that just before the crash, one of the
controllers on duty was directing a fire
truck to help with an issue on a
separate flight. The controller gave the
fire truck the go-ahad to cross the
runway just as an Air Canada flight was
landing.
Truck one, stop.
One, stop.
One passenger on the flight told the
Times she heard a loud grinding sound,
which she thought was the pilot trying
to break before the crash. Then she was
thrown forward and people started
screaming. The force of the collision
ejected one flight attendant who was
tossed from the plane and landed on the
runway, still strapped to her seat. She
was one of dozens of people who were
injured. The two pilots on the plane
both died in the crash. While the
airport partially reopened yesterday,
officials with the National
Transportation Safety Board say it will
still take time to finish sorting
through the wreckage and fully clear it.
The head of the NTSB says its
investigation got off to a bit of a slow
start yesterday, in part because some of
its specialists who were trying to fly
in from around the country were among
those caught in long security lines.
阿根廷探戈:帕金森氏症患者的希望之舞
在阿根廷,一项独特的疗法正将该国标志性的国舞——探戈——转化为一种治疗手段,尤其针对患有帕金森氏症(Parkinson's disease)的患者。帕金森氏症是一种不治之症,主要影响中枢神经系统(central nervous system),导致患者在运动协调、平衡感和精细动作方面出现障碍。探戈舞以其充满激情、富有情感且动作精准的特点而闻名。正是这些精确的舞步,让布宜诺斯艾利斯一家医院的医生们发现,它们对治疗患者的平衡和协调问题极为有效。
探戈舞包含大量的后退步和重心转移,这与帕金森氏症患者常失去的运动能力相契合。一位参与该医院项目研究的学者曾如此描述:“探戈使用的正是帕金森患者容易丧失的那类运动模式。”该舞蹈课程鼓励患者运用所学的探戈舞步来辅助日常生活活动。例如,开冰箱门可以类比为一次侧步(side step),而探戈舞中大量的躯干旋转动作,对于像洗碗这类需要活动腰部的日常任务至关重要。
舞蹈疗法(Dance therapy)不仅用于帕金森氏症,也广泛应用于治疗其他疾病,如阿尔茨海默病(Alzheimer's)和多发性硬化症(multiple sclerosis)等,在阿根廷及其他地区均有应用。在布宜诺斯艾利斯,这项探戈疗法项目已为部分患者带来了如此显著的信心提升,以至于一些原本需要拄着拐杖前来上课的患者,最终能够不带拐杖地走出教室。
Original English
And finally,
in Argentina, the Times has been
reporting on how the country's national
dance, tango, is being put to use as
therapy,
specifically for patients with
Parkinson's, the incurable disease that
affects the central nervous system.
Tango is known for its passion, its
heart, and its precise movements. It's
those specific steps that doctors at one
hospital in Buenoseras have found are
extremely helpful for their patients,
dealing with balance and coordination
issues. Tango involves a lot of going
backwards, shifting weight from one foot
to another. As one researcher who helped
start the hospital's program put it,
quote, "Tango uses the same kind of
movements that people with Parkinson's
disease tend to lose." The class
encourages patients to use the tango
moves they've learned to then help with
everyday activities. For instance,
opening the fridge is basically doing a
side step. There's also a lot of torso
rotation in tango, a key movement for
something like washing the dishes. Dance
therapy is used to treat other
conditions as well. in Argentina and
beyond like Alzheimer's or multiple
sclerosis. In Buenoseres, the program
has been so transformative for some
patients sense of confidence that some
people who walked in with canes ended up
walking out of tango class without them.
Those are the headlines. Today on the daily, a look at how China made itself tariff. You can listen to that in the New York Times app or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow.