---
author: New York Times Podcasts
date: '2026-03-24'
guest: ''
layout: post.njk
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOgbQHKQa7s
speaker: New York Times Podcasts
tags:
  - geopolitical-conflict
  - economic-impact
  - energy-security
  - recession-risk
title: 中东战事升级与全球经济警报，美国政坛动态及航空安全调查
summary: 本期新闻播报涵盖了中东地区导弹袭击引发的广泛担忧，对全球能源安全和经济增长的潜在长期影响，以及美国国内政治的最新进展，包括政府关门僵局与新任国土安全部长任命。此外，报道还深入探讨了拉瓜迪亚机场飞机相撞事故的初步调查进展，以及阿根廷利用探戈舞作为帕金森氏症患者的创新疗法。
insight: ''
draft: true
series: ''
category: macro-economy
area: geopolitics
project: []
people: []
companies_orgs: []
products_models: []
media_books: []
status: evergreen
---
### 中东冲突的涟漪效应：能源安全与全球经济的严峻挑战

在中东地区，一系列导弹袭击事件已造成石油设施的广泛破坏，标志着一场新阶段的冲突。以色列对“南帕斯”天然气田的打击引发了伊朗的报复威胁，促使经济学家们对全球经济的长期损害发出严峻警告。此前，国际社会的焦点主要集中在霍尔木兹海峡的航运安全上，普遍认为若此关键通道得以疏通，油轮及其他船只的通行将恢复正常，燃油价格也会随之回落。然而，随着炼油厂和天然气田等关键能源基础设施成为攻击目标，此次冲突的影响已远超预期，可能在未来数年内持续显现。

**国际能源署**（International Energy Agency）负责人指出，当前这场战争是对全球能源安全构成的历史性最大威胁。该地区至少有40处能源资产遭受了严重或极严重的破坏。例如，卡塔尔一个主要的能源综合体便遭受重创；该设施约生产了全球五分之一的**液化天然气**（liquefied natural gas），这是亚洲和欧洲家庭取暖、烹饪以及工厂供能的关键能源。据官方估计，该设施的修复工作可能长达五年。这类持续的供应中断不仅会推高全球能源价格，高企的能源成本进而会拖累经济增长、增加失业率，并加速**通货膨胀**（inflation）的进程。一家能源咨询公司已发出预警：此前每桶约73美元的石油价格，在战争爆发后已突破100美元，并可能在本年度内飙升至每桶200美元。若此预测成真，专家忧虑经济体将不可避免地陷入**衰退**（recession）。

与此同时，关于战争持续时间以及未来是否会有更多能源基础设施遭受攻击，市场信号混乱，充满冲突。美国总统宣称与伊朗进行了“富有成效的对话”，但伊朗议会领导人却斥之为“假新闻”。《纽约时报》获悉，尽管双方确有信息往来，但美国官员表示，谈判并未取得实质性进展，与总统的说法存在差异。

此外，美国政府与一家法国能源公司达成了一项不同寻常的协议：美国将支付近10亿美元给**道达尔能源**（Total Energies），以换取该公司放弃在美东海岸建设海上风电场的计划。此前，该公司已在**拜登**政府时期获得了纽约和北卡罗来纳海岸的风电租赁权。现在，美国将承担这笔费用。作为交换，道达尔能源承诺将这笔资金投资于美国的石油和天然气项目。这项交易被视为一项显著的国家税收转移，旨在通过牺牲可再生能源项目来促进化石燃料的生产。**特朗普**（Trump）总统多年来一直抨击风力发电，称其项目“丑陋”，并无证据地声称其“惹恼了鲸鱼”。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

From
 the
 New
 York
 Times,
 it's
 the


headlines.
 I'm
 Tracy
 Mumford.
 Today's


Tuesday,
 March
 24th.
 Here's
 what
 we're


covering


>> in
 the
 Middle
 East.


>> Now,
 the
 missile
 attacks
 here
 reportedly


caused
 extensive
 damage
 at
 oil


facilities
 throughout
 the
 region.


>> A
 recent
 wave
 of
 attacks
 on
 energy


infrastructure
 has
 marked
 a
 new
 phase
 in


the
 war.
 After
 Israel
 struck
 the
 South


Pass
 gas
 field,


>> Iran
 vowing
 to
 retaliate
 unleash


>> and
 economists
 are
 raising
 the
 alarm


that
 the
 damage
 to
 the
 global
 economy


could
 be
 long-term.
 Until
 now,
 much
 of


the
 attention
 has
 been
 on
 the
 straight


of
 Hormuz,
 whether
 oil
 tankers
 and
 other


ships
 can
 get
 in
 or
 out.
 The
 idea
 is
 if


that's
 resolved,
 things
 will
 get
 flowing


again.
 Fuel
 prices
 will
 come
 back
 down.


But
 with
 targets
 like
 refineries
 and
 gas


fields
 coming
 under
 fire,
 the
 effects


could
 be
 felt
 for
 years.


>> Let
 me
 explain
 you
 how
 challenging
 the


situation
 is.


>> Yesterday,
 the
 head
 of
 the
 International


Energy
 Agency
 said
 the
 war
 is
 the


biggest
 threat
 to
 global
 energy
 security


in
 history.


>> There
 are
 at
 least
 40


energy
 assets
 in
 the
 region
 are
 severely


or
 very
 severely
 damaged.
 One
 site


that's
 been
 hit,
 for example,
 is
 a
 vast


Qatari
 complex
 that
 produces
 roughly
 a


fifth
 of
 the
 world's
 liqufied
 natural


gas
 that's
 used
 to
 heat
 homes,
 cook


food,
 and
 power
 factories
 across
 Asia


and
 Europe.
 An
 official
 said
 it
 could


take
 up
 to
 5
 years
 to
 repair.
 All
 the


disruptions
 like
 that
 could
 continue
 to


drive
 up
 global
 energy
 prices,
 and
 high


energy
 prices
 tend
 to
 slow
 economic


growth,
 increase
 unemployment,
 and
 speed


up
 inflation.


One
 energy
 consulting
 firm
 is
 now


warning
 that
 oil,
 which
 was
 about
 $73
 a


barrel
 before
 the
 war
 and
 has
 now


crossed
 100,
 could
 climb
 to
 as
 high
 as


$200
 a
 barrel
 by
 the
 end
 of
 the
 year.
 If


that
 happens,
 one
 expert
 told
 the
 Times,


quote,
 I
 couldn't
 fathom
 we
 would
 not


start
 seeing
 economies
 fall
 into
 a


recession.


Meanwhile,
 there's
 been
 a
 slew
 of


conflicting
 signals
 on
 how
 long
 the
 war


could
 last
 and
 whether
 any
 more
 energy


infrastructure
 could
 come
 under
 fire.


President
 Trump
 declared
 yesterday
 that


the
 US
 and
 Iran
 had
 had
 what
 he
 called


productive
 conversations.
 An
 Iranian


parliamentary
 leader
 dismissed
 that
 as


fake
 news.
 The
 Times
 has
 learned
 that


while
 some
 messages
 have
 been
 going
 back


and
 forth,
 US
 officials
 say
 the


negotiations
 have
 not
 been
 substantive


despite
 Trump's
 claims.


And
 last
 update
 on
 the
 administration,


the
 White
 House
 has
 struck
 an
 unusual


deal
 with
 a
 French
 energy
 company.
 The


US
 is
 going
 to
 pay
 nearly
 $1
 billion
 to


Total
 Energies
 to
 abandon
 its
 plans
 to


build
 wind
 farms
 off
 the
 East
 Coast.
 The


company
 paid
 for
 leases
 under
 the
 Biden


administration
 to
 build
 off
 New
 York
 and


North
 Carolina.
 The
 US
 will
 now


reimburse
 it
 for
 that.
 In
 exchange,


Total
 Energies
 is
 supposed
 to
 invest


that
 money
 in
 oil
 and
 gas
 projects
 in


the
 US.
 The
 deal
 is
 a
 remarkable


transfer
 of
 taxpayer
 dollars
 to
 a


foreign
 company
 for
 the
 purposes
 of


boosting
 the
 production
 of
 fossil
 fuels


while
 throttling
 a
 renewable
 energy


source.
 Trump
 has
 railed
 against
 wind


power
 for
 years,
 calling
 the
 projects


ugly
 and
 claiming
 without
 evidence
 that


they
 are
 quote
 driving
 whales
 crazy.
</details>

### 美国政坛风云与航空安全调查

在国际局势之外，美国国内政治也呈现出复杂动态。围绕国土安全部（DHS）的资金僵局，参议院曾一度接近达成一项获得两党支持的协议，该协议本可为DHS提供资金，但**总统特朗普**（President Trump）否决了该交易。参议员**约翰·肯尼迪**（Senator John Kennedy）透露，共和党人原先准备接受民主党提出的方案，即暂时不包含移民及海关执法局（ICE）的资金。然而，一旦总统被告知此事，他便立即将其压制。特朗普总统明确表示，他打算利用此次关于DHS拨款的僵局，作为推动其“**投票者身份识别法案**”（voter ID bill）的筹码。

缺乏DHS的协议意味着美国运输安全管理局（TSA）的特工将继续面临欠薪，这已导致美国国内航空旅行出现大范围延误，乘客不得不忍受数小时的安检队伍。与此同时，参议院投票确认了**马克·韦恩·穆伦**（Mark Wayne Mullen）担任俄克拉荷马州**国土安全部长**（Secretary of Homeland Security）的提名。穆伦接替了因一系列争议和两起美国公民被联邦移民特工杀害事件而遭特朗普解雇的前部长**克里斯蒂·格诺姆**（Christy Gnome）。鉴于国内持续的政治动荡，穆伦在上任初期将面临严峻考验。在其提名确认听证会上，他表现出比前任更为温和与合作的态度，但同时也明确表示致力于执行特朗普总统严打非法移民的承诺。

在近期发生的拉瓜迪亚机场飞机相撞事故调查方面，知情人士透露，联邦调查人员正重点审视事故发生前，一名空中交通管制员是否因分心而导致了此次致命碰撞。事故发生前，控制塔的录音显示，一名当班管制员正在处理另一架航班的问题，并指示一辆消防车通过跑道，而此时一架加拿大航空公司的航班正准备降落。一名航班乘客回忆，她听到巨大的摩擦声，起初以为是飞行员在尝试刹车，随后她被抛向前，人们开始尖叫。碰撞的巨大冲击力将一名空中乘务员抛出飞机，她仍系在座位上落到跑道上。她是数十名受伤人员之一，而飞机上的两名飞行员均在事故中身亡。国家运输安全委员会（NTSB）表示，调查工作因初期一些专家在安检线滞留而进展缓慢，尽管机场已部分重新开放，但全面清理残骸仍需时间。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

Now,
 a
 few
 more
 quick
 updates
 on
 the


Trump
 administration.
 From
 the
 Homeland


Security
 shutdown
 to
 an
 extraordinary


transfer
 of
 taxpayer
 dollars.
 First,


>> it
 would
 have
 worked.
 We
 could
 have
 had


TSA
 paid
 by
 the
 end
 of
 the
 week,
 but
 uh


the
 president
 said
 no
 deals.
 So,
 my


plan,


>> there
 was
 almost
 a
 bipartisan
 agreement


in
 the
 Senate
 over
 the
 DHS
 shutdown,
 but


President
 Trump
 has
 nixed
 it.
 GOP


Senator
 John
 Kennedy
 told
 Fox
 News
 that


he
 and
 other
 Republicans
 were
 prepared


to
 accept
 a
 deal
 from
 Democrats
 that


would
 have
 funded
 all
 of
 DHS
 except
 ICE


for
 now.
 But
 when
 the
 president
 was


looped
 in,
 he
 quashed
 it.


>> And
 I'm
 suggesting
 strongly
 to
 the


Republican
 party,
 don't
 make
 any
 deal
 on


anything.
 The
 most
 important
 thing
 we


can
 have
 is
 what's
 called
 the
 Save


America
 Act.
 Don't
 make
 any
 deal
 on


anything
 unless
 you
 include
 voter
 ID.


>> Yesterday,
 Trump
 made
 clear
 he
 wants
 to


leverage
 the
 funding
 standoff
 as
 a
 way


to
 push
 his
 voter
 ID
 bill.
 Without
 a


deal
 on
 DHS,
 TSA
 agents
 will
 continue
 to


go
 unpaid,
 which
 has
 already
 caused


widespread
 disruption
 to
 air
 travel
 in


the
 US
 as
 some
 passengers
 wait
 in
 hours


long
 security
 lines.
 on
 this
 vote.


>> Also
 in
 the
 Senate,


>> the
 eyes
 are
 54,
 the
 nays
 are
 45.
 The


nomination
 of
 Mark
 Wayne
 Mullen
 of


Oklahoma
 to
 be
 Secretary
 of
 Homeland


Security
 is
 confirmed.


>> Mark
 Wayne
 Mullen
 was
 confirmed
 as
 the


next
 leader
 of
 DHS,
 taking
 over
 from


Christy
 Gnome,
 who
 Trump
 fired
 after
 a


string
 of
 controversies
 and
 national


outrage
 over
 the
 killings
 of
 two
 US


citizens
 by
 federal
 immigration
 agents.


All
 of
 that
 combined
 with
 the
 ongoing


shutdown
 make
 it
 a
 tenuous
 time
 for


Mullen
 to
 step
 into
 the
 role.
 In
 his


confirmation
 hearing,
 he
 struck
 a
 less


combative
 and
 more
 cooperative
 tone
 than


his
 predecessor,
 but
 he's
 made
 clear


he's
 committed
 to
 fulfilling
 Trump's


promise
 to
 crack
 down
 on
 illegal


immigration.


In
 New
 York,
 a
 person
 briefed
 on
 the


federal
 investigation
 into
 the
 deadly


crash
 at
 LaGuardia
 on
 Sunday
 tells
 the


Times
 that
 officials
 are
 looking
 into


whether
 an
 air
 traffic
 controller
 there


was
 distracted
 moments
 before
 the


accident.


>> Warning
 company
 tower
 requesting
 to


cross
 at
 Delta.
 One
 company
 cross
 delta.


>> Recordings
 from
 the
 control
 tower
 show


that
 just
 before
 the
 crash,
 one
 of
 the


controllers
 on
 duty
 was
 directing
 a
 fire


truck
 to
 help
 with
 an
 issue
 on
 a


separate
 flight.
 The
 controller
 gave
 the


fire
 truck
 the
 go-ahad
 to
 cross
 the


runway
 just
 as
 an
 Air
 Canada
 flight
 was


landing.


>> Truck
 one,
 stop.


>> One,
 stop.


>> One
 passenger
 on
 the
 flight
 told
 the


Times
 she
 heard
 a
 loud
 grinding
 sound,


which
 she
 thought
 was
 the
 pilot
 trying


to
 break
 before
 the
 crash.
 Then
 she
 was


thrown
 forward
 and
 people
 started


screaming.
 The
 force
 of
 the
 collision


ejected
 one
 flight
 attendant
 who
 was


tossed
 from
 the
 plane
 and
 landed
 on
 the


runway,
 still
 strapped
 to
 her
 seat.
 She


was
 one
 of
 dozens
 of
 people
 who
 were


injured.
 The
 two
 pilots
 on
 the
 plane


both
 died
 in
 the
 crash.
 While
 the


airport
 partially
 reopened
 yesterday,


officials
 with
 the
 National


Transportation
 Safety
 Board
 say
 it
 will


still
 take
 time
 to
 finish
 sorting


through
 the
 wreckage
 and
 fully
 clear
 it.


The
 head
 of
 the
 NTSB
 says
 its


investigation
 got
 off
 to
 a
 bit
 of
 a
 slow


start
 yesterday,
 in
 part
 because
 some
 of


its
 specialists
 who
 were
 trying
 to
 fly


in
 from
 around
 the
 country
 were
 among


those
 caught
 in
 long
 security
 lines.
</details>

### 阿根廷探戈：帕金森氏症患者的希望之舞

在阿根廷，一项独特的疗法正将该国标志性的国舞——探戈——转化为一种治疗手段，尤其针对患有**帕金森氏症**（Parkinson's disease）的患者。帕金森氏症是一种不治之症，主要影响**中枢神经系统**（central nervous system），导致患者在运动协调、平衡感和精细动作方面出现障碍。探戈舞以其充满激情、富有情感且动作精准的特点而闻名。正是这些精确的舞步，让布宜诺斯艾利斯一家医院的医生们发现，它们对治疗患者的平衡和协调问题极为有效。

探戈舞包含大量的后退步和重心转移，这与帕金森氏症患者常失去的运动能力相契合。一位参与该医院项目研究的学者曾如此描述：“探戈使用的正是帕金森患者容易丧失的那类运动模式。”该舞蹈课程鼓励患者运用所学的探戈舞步来辅助日常生活活动。例如，开冰箱门可以类比为一次侧步（side step），而探戈舞中大量的躯干旋转动作，对于像洗碗这类需要活动腰部的日常任务至关重要。

**舞蹈疗法**（Dance therapy）不仅用于帕金森氏症，也广泛应用于治疗其他疾病，如阿尔茨海默病（Alzheimer's）和多发性硬化症（multiple sclerosis）等，在阿根廷及其他地区均有应用。在布宜诺斯艾利斯，这项探戈疗法项目已为部分患者带来了如此显著的信心提升，以至于一些原本需要拄着拐杖前来上课的患者，最终能够不带拐杖地走出教室。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

And
 finally,


in
 Argentina,
 the
 Times
 has
 been


reporting
 on
 how
 the
 country's
 national


dance,
 tango,
 is
 being
 put
 to
 use
 as


therapy,


specifically
 for
 patients
 with


Parkinson's,
 the
 incurable
 disease
 that


affects
 the
 central
 nervous
 system.


Tango
 is
 known
 for
 its
 passion,
 its


heart,
 and
 its
 precise
 movements.
 It's


those
 specific
 steps
 that
 doctors
 at
 one


hospital
 in
 Buenoseras
 have
 found
 are


extremely
 helpful
 for
 their
 patients,


dealing
 with
 balance
 and
 coordination


issues.
 Tango
 involves
 a
 lot
 of
 going


backwards,
 shifting
 weight
 from
 one
 foot


to
 another.
 As
 one
 researcher
 who
 helped


start
 the
 hospital's
 program
 put
 it,


quote,
 "Tango
 uses
 the
 same
 kind
 of


movements
 that
 people
 with
 Parkinson's


disease
 tend
 to
 lose."
 The
 class


encourages
 patients
 to
 use
 the
 tango


moves
 they've
 learned
 to
 then
 help
 with


everyday
 activities.
 For
 instance,


opening
 the
 fridge
 is
 basically
 doing
 a


side
 step.
 There's
 also
 a
 lot
 of
 torso


rotation
 in
 tango,
 a
 key
 movement
 for


something
 like
 washing
 the
 dishes.
 Dance


therapy
 is
 used
 to
 treat
 other


conditions
 as
 well.
 in
 Argentina
 and


beyond
 like
 Alzheimer's
 or
 multiple


sclerosis.
 In
 Buenoseres,
 the
 program


has
 been
 so
 transformative
 for
 some


patients
 sense
 of
 confidence
 that
 some


people
 who
 walked
 in
 with
 canes
 ended
 up


walking
 out
 of
 tango
 class
 without
 them.
</details>

Those are the headlines. Today on the daily, a look at how China made itself tariff. You can listen to that in the New York Times app or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow.