特朗普试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克:中央银行独立性与法治的危机 Bloomberg Podcasts 2025-08-27

紧急播客:美联储理事解雇风波

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Bloomberg Audio Studios 播客、广播新闻。

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Tracy: 大家好,欢迎收听新一期的 Odd Lots 播客。我是 Tracy Alloway。

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>> Hello
and
welcome
to
another
episode
of


the
OLOTS
podcast.
I'm
Tracy
Aloway

Joe: 我是 Joe Weisenthal。

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>> and
I'm
Joe
Weisenthal.

Tracy: Joe,又是一天,又是一期紧急节目。我的意思是,我们又回到了紧急节目的状态,而这显然是其中一件大事。

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>> Joe,
another
day,
another
emergency


episode.
I
mean,
we're
back
to
emergency


episodes,
and
this
is
obviously
one
of


the
big
ones.

Joe: 是的。我们是在8月26日录制这期节目,昨晚我们收到消息,前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)打算解雇联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve Board:美国中央银行系统的主要管理机构,负责制定货币政策)的丽莎·库克(Lisa Cook)。显然,这直接引发了关于中央银行独立性以及总统在人事任免方面的权限的辩论。今天早上市场对此的反应是,黄金小幅上涨,美元下跌,但真正有趣的是,长期国债市场的收益率正在上升,这表明市场正在建立更多的风险溢价。

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>> Yeah.
So,
we
are
recording
this
on


August
26th,
and
we
had
news
overnight


that
President
Donald
Trump
intends
to


fire
Lisa
Cook
from
the
Federal
Reserve


Board.
Obviously,
this
feeds
right
into


the
debate
over
central
bank


independence
and
what
the
president


actually
has
a
right
to
do
when
it
comes


to
hiring
and
firing.
And
uh
the
market


reaction
this
morning,
gold
up
a
bit,


the
dollar
down,
but
what's
really


interesting
is
we
have
yields
at
the


long
end
of
the
Treasury
market
picking


up,
which
would
suggest
there's
more
of


a
risk
premium
being
built
into
that


market.

Tracy: 不,完全是这样。对美联储独立性的担忧,给最近的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)会议蒙上了一层阴影。当然,我们是在8月26日录制这期节目。今天早上,我们发布了亚当·波森(Adam Posen)的一期节目,内容是关于他在那里的超现实经历,每个人都知道对中央银行独立性的威胁是货币政策的头号问题,但没有人真正谈论它。也许人们试图保持低调,试图一切照旧,然后我们就收到了这个消息。所以,那些人们可能希望以某种方式想象或不愿正视的事情,现在就在眼前了。我们还看到特朗普在杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)发表演讲时发推特说他想解雇丽莎·库克,这无疑凸显了最近杰克逊霍尔会议的基调。好的,显然有很多事情要谈,包括特朗普从法律角度是否真的能这样做。我很高兴地说,我们请来了最合适的嘉宾,一位我们之前就中央银行独立性这个话题交流过的专家。我们将与哥伦比亚大学法学院教授、《美联储的解放》(The Fed Unbound)一书的作者莱夫·梅南德(Lev Menand)进行对话。莱夫,非常感谢您再次来到节目中。

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>> No,
totally.
The
concerns
over
Fed


independence
sort
of
cast
a
whole
shadow


of
the
recent
Jackson
Hole
event.
And
of


course,
okay,
so
we're
recording
this


August
26th.
this
morning
an
episode


with
Adam
Posen
which
was
sort
of
about


this
surreal
experience
there
where


everybody
knew
that
the
threats
to


central
bank
independence
were
the


number
one
story
in
monetary
policy
and


yet
no
one
was
really
talking
about
it.


Maybe
people
are
trying
to
lay
low


trying
to
act
business
as
usual
and
then


we
get
this
and
so
what
was
something


that
maybe
people
hoped
to
imagine
a
way


or
sort
of
not
you
know
look
at
the


other
direction
is
now
right
here.
Well,


we
also
had
Trump
tweeting
that
he


wanted
to
fire
Lisa
Cook
while
Pal
was


giving
his
speech,
which
definitely


underscores
the
tone
of
Jackson
Hole


recently.
Okay,
so
there's
clearly
a
lot


to
talk
about,
including
whether
or
not


Trump
can
actually
do
this
from
a
legal


perspective.
And
I
am
glad
to
say
we


have
the
perfect
guest,
someone
we
have


spoken
to
before
on
this
exact
topic
of


central
bank
independence.
We're
going


to
be
speaking
with
Lev
Manand,


professor
at
Columbia
Law
School
and


also
the
author
of
The
Fed
Unbound.
Lev,


thanks
so
much
for
coming
on
the
show


again.

Lev: 感谢邀请我回来。

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>> Thanks
for
having
me
back.

“有因解雇”的法律先例与定义

Tracy: 那么,我将从一个非常简单的问题开始。历史上是否有总统以这种方式解雇美联储理事的先例?

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>> So,
I'm
going
to
start
with
a
very


simple
question.
Is
there
any
precedent


in
history
for
a
president
firing


someone
from
the
Federal
Reserve
Board


in
this
way?

Lev: 没有。自国会在1913年首次设立美联储理事会以来,总统从未解雇过美联储理事会的成员。而且,一个多世纪以来,总统也没有尝试过“有因解雇”(for cause:指因特定、正当理由而解雇,通常涉及员工失职、不当行为或违反规定,而非随意解雇)任何美国官员。因此,我们现在在许多方面都处于未知水域。我们显然会深入探讨这次解雇的表面原因,但作为律师,"有因"到底意味着什么?

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>> No.
There
have
been
no
firings
of


members
of
the
Fed
board
by
the


president
since
the
Fed
board
was
first


created
by
Congress
in
1913.
And
there


haven't
been
any
attempts
by
presidents


to
remove
any
officers
of
the
United


States
for
cause
in
over
a
century.
And


so
we're
in
unchartered
waters
here
in
a


number
of
different
respects.
We're


going
to
get
into
the
ostensible
reasons


for
the
firing
obviously,
but
as


lawyers,


what
does
for
cause
mean?

Lev: 那么,"有因"是这里的一个法律问题,即根据法规,什么构成“因”。在联邦法律和独立机构法中,通常国会会明确规定原因。有三种常见原因:效率低下、玩忽职守和渎职。这些是经典的“因”。《联邦储备法》(Federal Reserve Act:美国国会于1913年通过的法律,建立了联邦储备系统,即美联储)不同寻常之处在于它没有具体说明具体原因,而只是简单地说“有因”。所以,这里的一个问题是,它是否仅仅指标准原因,还是包括其他情况?这非常重要,因为标准原因都与你在履行职责时的行为有关。是任职期间的渎职,而不是任职之外的渎职。国会的意图是不将私人不当行为作为总统免职的理由。因此,这里的一个问题是,私人不当行为是否算数。我认为非常清楚的一点是,我们应该开门见山地说,私人不当行为的指控绝对不算数。这不属于法规的范畴,这也是原因之一。

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So
for
cause,
one
of
the
legal
questions


here
is
what
constitutes
cause
under
the


statute?
And
in
federal
law,
in


independent
agency
law,
usually
Congress


specifies
the
causes.
And
there


are
three
common
ones.
Inefficiency,
neglect


of
duty,
and
malfeasance
in
office.


These
are
the
classic
causes.
The


Federal
Reserve
Act
is
unusual
for
not


specifying
specific
causes
but
saying


simply
for
cause.
So
one
issue
here
is


is
it
just
the
standard
causes
or
do


other
things
count?
And
that's
really


important
because
the
standard
causes


all
have
to
do
with
your
conduct
in


carrying
out
your
job.
Malfeasants
in


office
as
opposed
to
malfeasants
out
of


office.
there
was
an
intent
by
Congress


not
to
include
private
misconduct
as
a


ground
for
presidential
removal
from


office.
And
so
one
question
here
is


whether
private
misconduct
even
counts.


I
think
something
that's
very
clear
we


should
just
say
upfront
allegations
of


private
misconduct
definitely
don't


count.
That
does
not
come
within
the


statute
and
that's
one
of
the
reasons
this

Tracy: 为什么?

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>> why

Lev: 因为所有相关的正当程序问题。是的,仅仅一项指控不足以构成“有因解雇”,因为“有因”要求确定不当行为确实发生。一项指控不足以做出这样的确定。你知道,一项指控完全足以解雇财政部长,因为那个人是按总统的意愿任职的。总统可以说,我解雇了部长,因为有指控称部长有不当行为。这完全足够了。但丽莎·库克不是一个按总统意愿任职的官员。丽莎·库克更像是一名联邦法官,一名拥有任期、拥有在职合法权利的官员。要剥夺她的职位,总统必须遵循一个程序,有充分的理由,并做出结论。而这里这些都没有发生,这也是这次解雇非法的另一个原因。所以,在我们深入探讨之前,请您回顾一下对丽莎·库克的指控,因为正如您所指出的,这些指控引发了关于这是否能算作渎职,特别是在任职期间渎职的辩论。

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>> because
of
all
the
due
process
concerns


that
are
associated.
Um,
right.
An


allegation
isn't
sufficient
for
a


removal
for
cause
because
for
cause


requires
a
determination
that
misconduct


took
place.
An
allegation
isn't


sufficient
for
a
determination.<
You


know,
an
allegation
is
totally


sufficient
to
fire
the
secretary
of
the


treasury
because
that
person
serves
at


the
pleasure
of
the
president.
And
the


president
can
say,
I
fired
the
secretary


because
the
secretary
there
are


allegations
that
the
secretary
engage
in


misconduct.
That's
totally
sufficient.


But
Lisa
Cook
is
not
an
official
that


serves
at
the
pleasure
of
the
president.


Lisa
Cook
is
closer
to
being
a
federal


judge,
an
official
who
has
a
tenure
in


office,
a
vested
legal
right
to
serve
in


their
position.
And
to
take
that
away,


the
president
has
to
follow
a
process


and
have
a
ground
and
make
a
conclusion.


And
none
of
that
has
happened
here,


which
is
another
reason
that
this
is
an


illegal
firing.
So
just
before
we
go
any


further,
give
us
a
recap
of
the


accusations
against
Lisa
Cook
because
as


you
point
out,
they
feed
into
the
debate


over
whether
this
could
count
as


malfeasants,
particularly
in
office.

针对丽莎·库克的指控及其深层含义

Lev: 是的,好的,我会这样做。我只是觉得我们应该首先指出,尽管这关乎丽莎·库克,但它也完全不关乎丽莎·库克。这关乎杰罗姆·鲍威尔。这关乎理事会的其他成员。这关乎总统决定将政府最强大部门之一置于从属地位,作为其控制尽可能多政府部门的更大行动的一部分。对库克的行动是即将发生的事件的预演,如果解雇确实生效,其他理事会成员也将面临类似情况。好的,那么针对库克的具体案件是什么?这与她在成为美联储理事之前办理的两笔抵押贷款有关。因此,似乎政府一直在调查抵押贷款记录,他们发现——我不知道他们是否特别关注丽莎·库克或政府官员——他们发现丽莎·库克有两份抵押贷款申请,两份都声称她打算将作为贷款抵押品的房产作为她的主要住所。因此,指控是这构成抵押贷款欺诈(mortgage fraud: 指在抵押贷款申请过程中,通过虚假陈述、隐瞒事实或提供虚假文件来获取贷款的行为)。当然,欺诈需要意图。因此,仅凭这两份文件本身不足以判定某人有罪。你也不能在推特上被“定罪”。通常情况下,要确定是否存在欺诈,会由检察官进行私人政府调查,他们可能会获得起诉书等等。这些都没有发生,对吧?这是“有罪推定”,直到被证明无罪。而且,这似乎甚至不是政府的目标,即进行适当的程序来确定这种私人不当行为是否发生。重点是指向这种私人不当行为,然后说:“现在我可以把你从美联储解雇了。”这就是一个巨大的脱节,因为私人不当行为的指控,没有任何先例支持以此为由从政府职位上“有因解雇”。总统没有指出任何先例,白宫也没有指出任何先例。他们主要指出的是,以及这将最终成为一个案件的原因,是他们作为总统固有的宪法权力,这是法院在许多其他情况下允许总统援引的权力,以无视法规,无视法律,并践踏人民的权利。所以,这也是为什么这是一个大案的原因之一,因为这不仅仅是美联储的一个大案。它也是我们体系中法治的一个大案,以及我们在多大程度上是一个法治政府,而不是人治政府。

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>> Yeah.
Okay.
So
I
will
do
that.
I
just


think
we
should
note
at
the
sort
of
at


the
top
that
there's
a
way
in
which


while
this
is
about
Lisa
Cook,
it's
also


not
about
Lisa
Cook
at
all.
This
is


about
J
Pal.
This
is
about
the
rest
of


the
board.
This
is
about
the
president's


determination
to
subordinate
one
of
the


most
powerful
parts
of
the
government
as


part
of
a
larger
campaign
to
control
as


much
of
the
government
as
possible.
And


the
move
against
Cook
is
a
preview
of


coming
events
for
other
board
members
if


in
fact
the
firing
is
able
to
take


effect.
Okay.
So
what
is
the
specific


case
against
Cook?
It
has
to
do
with
two


mortgages
that
she
took
out
before
she


became
a
governor
of
the
Federal


Reserve.
And
so
it
appears
as
though
the


administration
has
been
digging
around


in
mortgage
records
and
they
found
I


don't
know
whether
they
were
looking
at


Lisa
Cook
in
particular
or
government


officials.
They
found
that
Lisa
Cook
had


two
mortgage
applications,
both
of
which


claimed
that
she
intended
to
make
the


property
that
was
collateral
for
the


loan
her
primary
residence.
And
so
the


allegation
is
that
this
is
mortgage


fraud.
Of
course,
fraud
requires
an


intent.
And
so
on
its
face,
just
the
two


documents
is
not
sufficient
to
convict


somebody
of
a
crime.
nor
can
you
be
sort


of
convicted
of
a
crime,
you
know,
on


the
Twitter
sphere.
The
ordinary
way
in


which
it
would
get
worked
out
whether


there
was
fraud
here
is
there
would
be
a


private
government
investigation
by


prosecutors,
they
could
get
an


indictment,
etc.
None
of
that
has


happened,
right?
This
is
guilty
until


proven
innocent.
And
it
doesn't
seem
to


even
be
the
goal
of
the
administration


to
to
run
a
proper
proceeding
to


determine
whether
this
private


misconduct
took
place.
The
point
is
to


point
to
this
private
misconduct
and


say,
"Now
I
can
fire
you
from
the


Federal
Reserve."
And
that's
where


there's
just
a
big
disconnect
because


allegations
of
private
misconduct,


there's
just
no
precedent
that
supports


a
removal
for
cause
from
a
government


position
on
that
basis.
And
the


president
has
pointed
to
none
and
the


white
house
has
pointed
to
none.
Mostly


what
they're
pointing
to
and
what
this


is
going
to
ultimately
be
a
case
about


is
their
inherent
constitutional


authority
as
president,
which
is
what


the
court
has
allowed
the
president
to


invoke
in
a
number
of
other
instances
to


ignore
statutes,
to
ignore
law,
and
to


trample
on
people's
rights.
And
so


that's
going
to
that's
part
of
why
also


this
is
a
big
case
because
this
is
not


just
a
big
case
for
the
Federal
Reserve.


It's
also
just
a
big
case
for
the
rule


of
law
in
our
system
and
the
extent
to


which
we
are
a
government
of
laws
and


not
of
people.

法律战的走向与美联储的困境

Tracy: 这些都是我们必须弄清楚的极其重要的事情。现在,关于这些问题会发生什么?因为她会抗争。我相信她的律师昨晚发表了一份声明。您对事情可能如何发展有什么看法,比如她是否能回到美联储大楼的办公室,并被纳入会议?因为如果事情要提交到最高法院,这些程序需要时间。

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>> These
are
extremely
important
things


that
we
have
to
get
across.
What
happens


now
in
terms
of
like
the
questions


because
she's
going
to
fight
it.
I


believe
her
lawyers
put
out
a
statement


last
night.
What's
your
understanding
of


how
things
could
play
out
in
terms
of


like
even
her
going
to
her
office
at
the


building
and
being
included
in
meetings


because
these
processes
take
time
if


it's
going
to
go
to
the
Supreme
Court.

Lev: 是的,这是一个非常混乱的时刻。因此,最初的澄清将来自法院,因为丽莎·库克的律师可能会寻求一项初步禁令,要求联邦地区法院恢复她的职位,就像今年早些时候国家劳工关系委员会(NLRB: National Labor Relations Board: 负责执行美国联邦劳动法,保护工人组织工会和集体谈判的权利)的格温·威尔科克斯(Gwyn Wilcox)和联邦贸易委员会(FTC: Federal Trade Commission: 负责消费者保护和反垄断的独立机构)的贝多亚(Bedoya)被免职时所做的那样,对吧?所以,我们知道这个过程是如何运作的,但是,在总统试图解雇受法律保护免于被总统解雇的人,以及联邦法院决定该人是否能在诉讼期间继续工作之间,存在一个时间段,这段时间里谁也不知道会发生什么。所以现在,针对你的问题,联邦储备委员会和作为理事会执行官的杰罗姆·鲍威尔正处于一个困难的境地,他们必须决定她是否仍然拥有她的办公室,而且他们有独立的义务遵守法律,对吧?他们不能仅仅说总统告诉我的。他们宣誓维护法律。所以,他们必须自己决定她是否真的被一个社交媒体帖子解雇了,对吧?这没有遵循任何适当的程序。而且,从表面上看,这是一次无效的解雇。根据现行法律,它没有任何法律效力。也许最高法院会像他们以前做的那样改变法律,但我认为鲍威尔在这里……

View/Hide Original English

Yeah,
this
is
a
very
messy
moment.
And


so
the
initial
clarification
will
come


from
the
courts
because
presumably
Lisa


Cook's
lawyers
will
seek
a
preliminary


injunction
reinstating
her
from
federal


district
court
in
the
same
way
that
Gwyn


Wilcox
at
the
NLRB
did
that
Bedoya
at


the
FTC
did
when
they
were
removed


earlier
this
year.
Right?
So,
we
know


how
that
process
kind
of
works,
but


there's
this
period
of
time
between
when


the
president
tries
to
fire
someone
who


is
statutoily
protected
from
being
fired


by
the
president
and
the
federal
courts


make
a
decision
about
whether
that


person's
going
to
get
to
continue
to


work
in
their
job
while
the
litigation


is
going
on
where
who
knows.
So
right


now
to
your
question,
the
Federal


Reserve
Board
and
Jay
Powell
as
the


active
executive
officer
of
the
board
is


in
a
difficult
position
where
they
have


to
decide
does
she
still
have
her
office


and
they're
under
an
independent


obligation
to
follow
the
law,
right?


They
don't
get
to
just
say
the
president


told
me
so.
They
swore
to
uphold
the


law.
So,
they
have
to
make
their
own


determination
about
whether
she
was
in


fact
fired
by
a
social
media
post,


right?
That
didn't
follow
any
of
the


proper
process.
And
it's
an
invalid


firing
on
its
face.
And
under
existing


law,
it
doesn't
have
any
legal
effect.


Maybe
Supreme
Court's
going
to
change


the
law
like
they've
done
before,
but
I


think
Pal
here

Tracy: 必须让她进入大楼。这将导致理事会、其律师、作为理事会执行官的杰罗姆·鲍威尔与总统之间发生一场独立的对峙。

View/Hide Original English

>> has
to
let
her
in
the
building.
And


that's
going
to
create
a
separate


showdown
between
the
board,
its
lawyers,


J.
pal
as
active
executive
officer
of


the
board
and
the
president.

Joe: 这很有趣。所以有两条平行的法律论证正在进行。一个在美联储内部,一个在法院系统。回到法院系统,今年我们当然在其他机构也发生过解雇事件。作为这些事件的一部分,最高法院基本上为美联储开了一个例外,说它我认为是独特构建的。

View/Hide Original English

>> That's
interesting.
So
there's
two


parallel
legal
arguments
going
on.
One


at
the
Fed
and
one
in
the
court
system.


Just
going
back
to
the
court
system
for


a
second,
we
have
of
course
had
firings


at
other
agencies
this
year.
And
as
part


of
those,
the
Supreme
Court
basically


carved
out
an
exception
for
the
Fed


saying
that
I
think
it's
uniquely


structured.
And

Lev: 它不同,因为它就是不同。

View/Hide Original English

>> it's
different
because
it's
different.

Joe: 它不同,因为它就是不同,正如我们所说。所以,

View/Hide Original English

>> It's
different
because
it's
different.


as
we
said.
So,

Lev: 是的,有一个例外条款。这在这里会起作用吗?或者他们可以直接取消这个例外条款吗?

View/Hide Original English

>> yeah,
there's
a
carveout.
Would
that


come
into
play
here
or
could
they
just


cancel
the
carveout?

Lev: 那么,这个例外条款与这个问题没有直接关系。

View/Hide Original English

>> So,
the
carveout
isn't
direct
to
this


issue.

Joe: 好的。

View/Hide Original English

>> Okay.

Lev: 还有其他独立机构,就像美联储一样,比如联邦贸易委员会、美国证券交易委员会(SEC: Securities and Exchange Commission: 负责监管美国证券市场,保护投资者,维护市场公平和效率),国家劳工关系委员会,它们都规定人员有固定任期,总统只能“有因解雇”。我们刚才谈到,通常这些原因都是明确规定的。总统今年早些时候所做的是说:“我不需要遵守那个法规。我没有任何理由解雇你。我只是要解雇你,就好像你是按我的意愿任职一样,因为根据宪法,我可以这样做。”那个案件提交到了最高法院。这就是你所指的。那个案件叫做威尔科克斯案(Will Cox case: 指美国最高法院在涉及总统解雇独立机构官员权力方面的判例)。今年5月,法院说:“是的,总统,你很可能会赢,因为我们支持你的固有权力理论,这在很大程度上脱离了美国法律传统,但我们明年在审理此案的实质内容时可能会支持它。”所以,在此期间,所有这些人都失业了。然后他们突然说,因为这个案件根本不涉及美联储,他们说:“哦,顺便说一句,万一有人正在关注并想知道,我能解雇美联储的人吗?我们认为美联储可能是一个不同的情况。”但这与“有因”条款是否对总统有约束力有关。所以总统读到……

View/Hide Original English

>> So,
there
are
these
other
independent


agencies
just
like
the
Fed,
Federal


Trade
Commission,
SEC,
National
Labor


Relations
Board,
and
they
all
say
that


people
have
tenure
in
office
for
a
term


of
years,
and
the
president
can
only


remove
for
cause.
And
we
were
talking


about
how
usually
those
causes
are


specified.
What
the
president
did


earlier
this
year
is
say,
"I
don't
need


to
follow
that
statute.
I
don't
have
any


cause
to
remove
you.
I'm
just
going
to


remove
you
as
if
you
serve
at
pleasure


because
under
the
Constitution,
I
can
do


that."
And
that
case
went
after
the


Supreme
Court.
And
that's
what
you're


referring
to.
And
that
case
is
called


Will
Cox.
And
in
May,
the
court
said,


"Yeah,
you're
probably
going
to
win
on


that,
president,
because
we're
into
this


theory
of
your
inherent
powers
that's


pretty
much
unmed
from
the
American


legal
tradition,
but
we're
going
to


probably
endorse
it
when
we
get
this


case
on
the
merits
next
year."
And
so,


in
the
meantime,
all
these
people
are


out
of
jobs.
And
then
they
said
out
of


nowhere,
because
the
case
doesn't


involve
the
Federal
Reserve
at
all,
they


say,
"Oh,
by
the
way,
just
in
case


anybody's
like
watching
who's
wondering


like,
can
I
fire
people
at
the
Federal


Reserve?
We
think
the
Federal
Reserve


probably
is
a
different
situation,
but


that's
with
respect
to
whether
the
cause


language
is
binding
on
the
president.


And
so
the
president
read
that

Lev: 这实际上都源于法院的威尔科克斯裁决,因为白宫律师说:“好的,现在我们要出去,尝试寻找我们可以制造、捏造的原因,并在这个法律条款上推陈出新。”所以法院在威尔科克斯案中并没有保护美联储免受此影响。从某种意义上说,它邀请了白宫尝试这样做。所以现在这个案件很可能会回到最高法院。最高法院将不得不说,这个“有因”条款是真的吗?还是仅仅是一个形式上的要求?它只是例行公事吗?因为总统正在将其视为仅仅是发布一份新闻稿伴随解职,这绝对不是国会在撰写《联邦储备法》时所理解的,也不是过去在美国政府中这个问题更大时所诉讼的方式。

View/Hide Original English

>> this
is
actually
all
downstream
of
the


Will
Cox
order
from
the
court
because


the
White
House
lawyer
said,
"Okay,
now


we're
going
to
go
out
and
try
to
find


causes
that
we
can
sort
of
manufacture,


cook
up,
and
push
the
envelope
on
this


legal
provision."
And
so
the
court


didn't
protect
the
Federal
Reserve
from


this
in
Willox.
It
in
some
sense
invited


the
White
House
to
try
this.
And
so
now


the
ca
this
case
will
go
back
to
the


Supreme
Court
presumably.
And
the


Supreme
Court
will
have
to
say
does
this


for
cause
thing
is
it
for
real
or
is
it


just
a
paper
requirement?
Is
it
just


proforma?
because
the
president
is


treating
it
like
it's
nothing
more
than


putting
out
a
press
release
alongside


the
removal,
which
is
definitely
not
how


Congress
understood
it
when
they
wrote


the
Federal
Reserve
Act
or
how
this
was


litigated
in
the
past
when
this
was
a


bigger
issue
in
American
government.

Joe: 这是一个非常重要的澄清,当特朗普解雇其他一些人时,他们试图建立这样一种观念,即这些所谓的独立机构实际上在宪法上是非法的。对,那里有一个具体的观点。

View/Hide Original English

This
is
really
important
clarification


that
when
Trump
fired
some
of
those


other
people,
they
were
trying
to


establish
the
notion
that
these
sort
of


so-called
like
independent
agencies
were


actually
just
constitutionally


illegitimate.
Right.
There
was
a


specific
point
there.

Lev: 完全正确。

View/Hide Original English

>> Exactly.

Joe: 因此,没有借口援引“有因”条款,因为那不是目标。目标是确立它们的非法性,而不是必然改变党派构成,尽管也许情况如此。就美联储而言,我的意思是,你说这次解雇是威尔科克斯裁决的下游影响,但真的是吗?我的意思是,“有因解雇”的能力一直都在那里,对吧?他们不需要威尔科克斯案的例外条款来“有因解雇”某人,即使我们对此是否真的达到了那个水平存在争议。

View/Hide Original English

>> And
so
there
was
no
pretext
for
invoking


the
cause
because
that
wasn't
the
goal.


The
goal
was
to
establish
their


illegitimacy,
not
to
necessarily
change


the
partisan
makeup
per
se,
though
maybe


that
was
uh
the
case.
In
the
case
of
the


Fed,


I
mean,
you
say
that
this
firing
was


downstream
from
the
Willox
decision,
but


was
it
I
mean,
the
for
cause
ability
has


never
like
the
idea
that
you
could
fire


for
cause
has
always
been
there,
right?


Like
they
didn't
need
the
carveout
from


Will
Cox
to
fire
someone
for
cause,
even


if
even
if
we
dispute
that
this
actually


rises
to
that
level.

Lev: 是的,我认为这是一个很好的问题,我在谈话中也多次遇到过。我认为关于威尔科克斯裁决需要理解的是,最高法院宣称美国政府赖以设计的基础性判例可能无效,因此总统可以解雇所有这些人在他们诉讼案件期间不能工作,他们失业了,这是多么激进。因此,法院在威尔科克斯案中采纳了对总统权力如此宽泛的、非正统的、前所未有的理解,以至于主要信号不是美联储受到保护,而是这个法院将不遗余力地支持对总统权力非常宽泛的理解。所以,当你作为总统的律师读到这一点时,你会想,好的,他们不想被贴上中央银行独立性在美国法律上是无效的标签,但他们也会让我们为所欲为。所以现在要做的事情是推动这个“有因”条款,并表现得它不是一个非常严格的标准,我们就会得到我们想要的,因为他们对联邦贸易委员会和国家劳工关系委员会所得到的成果是如此令人惊讶。所以人们在威尔科克斯案之后有一种感觉,哦,法院正在保护美联储。但威尔科克斯案中真正超越这种保护感的信号是,当情势所迫时,法院会找出理由来不限制总统。

View/Hide Original English

Yeah,
I
think
this
is
a
great
question
and
it's
come
up
a


few
times
in
conversations
that
I've


had.
I
think
the
thing
to
understand


about
the
Will
Cox
order
is
how
radical


it
was
for
the
Supreme
Court
to
say
that


this
bedrock
precedent
on
which
the
US


government
is
designed


is
probably
invalid
and
therefore
the


president
can
fire
all
these
people


don't
don't
get
to
work
while
they


litigate
their
cases.
They're
out
of


their
jobs.
And
so
the
court
in
Willox


embraced
such
a
broad
conception
of
the


presidency


in
such
a
sort
of
unorthodox


unmed
fashion
that
the
main
signal
from


that
isn't
that
the
Fed
is
protected
but


it's
that
this
court
is
going
to
bend


over
backwards
for
very
broad
conception


of
the
president's
power.
And
so
when


you
read
that
as
a
lawyer
for
the


president,
what
you
think
is,
okay,
they


don't
want
to
be
tagged
with
concluding


that
central
bank
independence
is
on
its


face
legally
invalid
in
the
United


States,
but
they
also
are
going
to
let


us
do
what
we
want.
And
so
the
thing
to


do
is
to
now
push
on
this
for
cause
and


act
like
it's
not
actually
a
very


rigorous
bar
and
we'll
get
what
we
want


because
it
was
so
surprising
that
they


got
what
they
want
with
respect
to
the


FTC
and
the
NLRB.
And
so
there's
this


sense
that
people
had
after
Will
Cox,


oh,
the
court
is
protecting
the
Fed.
But


the
real
message
in
Willox
that
overrode


that
sense
of
protection
is
the
court's


going
to
come
up
with
reasons
when
push


comes
to
shove
not
to
pen
in
the


president.

特朗普寻求控制美联储的动机

[音乐]

Tracy: 您认为特朗普政府为何想要控制美联储?因为,你知道,杰罗姆·鲍威尔刚刚在杰克逊霍尔发表了讲话,他为9月份降息打开了大门。所以,看起来事情正朝着特朗普想要的方向发展,尽管我必须指出,这里存在一个矛盾,因为他说经济很棒,但他又想要降息。为什么这对对他来说很重要?

View/Hide Original English

[Music]


Why
do
you
think
the
Trump


administration
wants
to
exert
control


over
the
Federal
Reserve?
Because,
you


know,
we
just
had
a
speech
from
Jerome


Pal
at
Jackson
Hole
where
he
opened
the


door
to
interest
rate
cuts
in
September.


So,
it
would
seem
things
are
sort
of


heading
in
the
direction
that
Trump


wants
even
though
I
will
point
out


there's
a
tension
there
because
he
says


the
economy
is
great,
but
also
he
wants


rate
cuts.
Why
is
this
important
to
him?

Lev: 那么,联邦储备委员会是联邦政府中最强大的机构,与最高法院和白宫一起,它们是2025年美国最强大的三个政府机构。自2008年金融危机以来,美联储的权力急剧扩张,其资产负债表已成为一个积极的政策工具。这意味着对于一个不想为了执行各种政策而向国会申请拨款的总统来说,它是一个非常有吸引力的奖品。在这里,你有一个无限可扩展的资产负债表。现在,它旨在确保随着时间的推移货币稳定扩张,但我们看到它可以用于其他用途。我认为其中一些用途在法律上是可疑的,但你可以想象一个不相信遵守法律、相信固有行政权力,并控制着一个无限可扩展的中央银行资产负债表的总统,可以做各种各样的事情。所以,即使超出利率政策,这也是一个非常有吸引力的奖品。我认为我不会低估利率政策的组成部分。是的,特朗普希望降低利率,并且有迹象表明在下次会议上利率会降低,但不会达到特朗普要求的幅度。

View/Hide Original English

So
the
Federal
Reserve
is
the
most


powerful
agency
in
the
federal


government
and
alongside
the
Supreme


Court
and
the
White
House,
those
are
the


three
most
powerful
government
bodies
in


the
United
States
in
2025.


And
the
Fed's
power
has
expanded


dramatically
since
the
2008
financial


crisis.
and
it
has
turned
its
balance


sheet
into
an
active
policy
tool.
And


that
means
that
it
is
a
very
shiny
prize


for
a
president
that
does
not
want
to


have
to
go
to
Congress
for


appropriations
to
carry
out
various


policies.
Here
you
have
an
infinitely


extensible
balance
sheet.
Now,
it's


meant
to
be
used
to
ensure
stable


monetary
expansion
over
time,
but
what


we've
seen
is
it
can
be
put
to
other


uses.
I
think
some
of
those
are
legally


questionable,
but
you
can
imagine
a


president
who
doesn't
believe
in


following
laws,
believes
in
inherent


executive
authority
with
control
over
an


infinitely
extensible
central
bank


balance
sheet,


can
do
all
sorts
of
different
stuff.
So


this
is
a
very
shiny
prize
even
beyond


interest
rate
policy.
I
I
think
I


wouldn't
underemphasize
the
interest


rate
policy
component.
Yes,
Trump
wants


lower
rates
and
there's
a
indication


that
rates
will
be
lowered
at
the
next


meeting,
but
not
by
the
amount
Trump
is


demanding.

Lev: 特朗普想搞一个繁荣过热的经济。为了做到这一点,他希望创造非常宽松的信贷条件、宽松的货币政策和货币扩张。美联储不会自己这样做。如果他想让他们这样做,他将不得不接管这个机构。整个机构的设计目的就是不参与这种繁荣-萧条式的宏观经济管理。而这正是他积极想要的东西,我认为我们将会得到它,市场只是非常缓慢地意识到这一点。

View/Hide Original English

>> Trump
wants
to
run
a
boom
economy,


overheated
economy.
And
in
order
to
do


that,
he
wants
to
create
very
easy


credit
conditions
and
loose
monetary


policy
and
monetary
expansion.
And
the


Fed
is
not
going
to
do
that
on
its
own.


He's
going
to
have
to
take
over
the


institution
if
he
wants
them
to
do
that.


The
whole
institution
is
designed
not
to


engage
in
such
a
boom
and
bust
type
of


macroeconomic
management.
And
that's


actively
what
he
wants
and
I
think
what


we
will
get
and
the
markets
are
only


very
slowly
waking
up
to
that.
M

Joe: 是的,看起来确实如此,我的意思是,谁知道呢?我的意思是,你看看一些资产价格的飞涨方式,也许市场已经明白了。

View/Hide Original English

>> yeah
it
it
does
seem
well
I
mean
who


knows
I
mean
you
look
at
some
of
the
the


way
asset
prices
are
flying
maybe
the


market
is
clued
to

Lev: 也许市场已经明白了,是的,因为事情的发展是,我们会有资产泡沫,对吧?金融系统会有很多杠杆,因为我们放松了银行资产负债表的管制,我们降低了短期利率,这将导致大量的信贷扩张,这将是一个通胀繁荣。我们通常不那样管理经济的原因是它最终会以悲剧收场。嗯,稍后会有一个萧条,但是,你知道,正如我相信查克·普林斯(Chuck Prince)曾经说过的那样,当音乐响起时,就继续跳舞。

View/Hide Original English

>> maybe
the
market
is
clued
in
yes
because


the
way
this
goes
is
we
get
asset
bubble


right
we
get
a
lot
of
leverage
in
the


financial
system
because
we
deregulate


bank
balance
sheets
and
we
lower


short-term
interest
rates
that's
going


to
lead
to
lots
of
credit
expansion
and


that's
going
to
be
an
inflationary
boom


the
reason
why
we
don't
run
the
economy


like
that
normally
is
it
ends
in
tears


Um,
there's
going
to
be
a
bust
later,


but
you
know,
as
I
believe
it
was
Chuck


Prince
once
said,
when
the
music
is


playing,
keep
dancing.

Tracy: 也许萧条会在四年后发生,对吧?如果特朗普卸任总统,他就不一定会关心了。

View/Hide Original English

>> Maybe
the
uh
the
bust
will
be
four
years


later,
right?
And
Trump
won't


necessarily
care
if
he's
out
of
the


presidency.

Lev: 它当然可以持续数年。你知道,我们已经看到非理性繁荣的市场,在实际潜在的结构性信贷扩张的推动下,泡沫持续了很长一段时间。顺便说一句,我想如果我是一名银行家、贷款人或专业交易员,我会知道。我会在顶部及时退出。我就是有那种感觉,我能做到。就像,让我们继续下去。

View/Hide Original English

>> It
could
certainly
go
for
years.
You


know,
we've
seen
irrationally
exuberant


markets
led
by
actual
underlying


structural
credit
expansion
fuel
bubbles


for
for
a
long
period
of
time.
By
the


way,
I
think
if
I
were
like
a
banker
or


a
lender
or
a
professional
trader,
I


would
know.
I
would
get
out
right
at
the


top.
I
just
have
that
feeling
that
I


could
do
it.
It's
like,
let's
keep
it


going.
And

Joe: 为什么不是每个人都这样做呢?

View/Hide Original English

>> why
doesn't
everyone
do
that?

Lev: 我知道这是一个泡沫或繁荣,但我就是有这种感觉,我能够把握住顶部。

View/Hide Original English

>> I
know
it's
a
I
know
it's
a
bubble
or


boom,
but
I
just
have
this
feeling
that


I
would
be
able
to
time
the
top.

Tracy: 这是 Odd Lots 播客。这就是你获得特殊见解的地方。鲍威尔是否会让库克回到大楼的问题,这会成为攻击鲍威尔本人的借口吗?

View/Hide Original English

>> It's
the
OddLots
podcast.
That's
how
you


know
that's
where
you
get
your
special


insight.
Could
the
question
of
whether


Powell
and
like
again,
you
know,
who


knows
what's
going
to
happen
today?
Uh,


let
Cook
back
into
the
building.
Could


that
be
a
pretext
for
an
attack
on
Paulo


himself?

Lev: 绝对会。我的意思是,我认为这位总统或更普遍的白宫已经提出了无数种可能的、构建的案件来罢免官员。所以他们显然提出了翻修问题,但未能遵守总统命令。总统所说的一切都不是法律。这是一个常见的误解。但这位总统认为这就是法律。所以总统很容易说这就是法律。

View/Hide Original English

>> Absolutely.
I
mean,
I
think
that
this


president
or
the
White
House
more


generally
has
floated
any
number
of


possible
sort
of
constructed
cases
to


remove
officials.
And
so
they
obviously


floated
the
renovations,
but
a
failure


to
follow
a
presidential
order.


Everything
the
president
says
is
not


law.
This
is
a
common
misconception.
But


this
president
thinks
it
is
law.
And
so


it
would
be
easy
to
for
the
president
to


say
this
is
law.

Joe: 但是,你知道,我相信这些都是法学院里人们会永远争论的话题。每次我和律师交谈,我都会被提醒,所有的法律都只是人们在任何特定时刻同意的法律,对吧?包括最……任何事情都可以被重新解释。任何事情都可以被捏造。任何事情都可以变成一个漏洞。就像最后,唯一支撑成文法的是某种执行它们的决心,对吧?

View/Hide Original English

>> But
you
know,
I'm
sure
these
are
the


types
of
things
that
people
debate


forever
in
law
school.
And
every
time
I


talk
to
lawyers,
I'm
reminded
it's
like


all
law
is
just
what
people
agree
is
law


at
any
given
moment,
right?
Including


the
most
anything
can
be
re
anything


could
be
reinterpreted.
Anything
can
be


contrived.
Anything
can
be
turned
into
a


loophole.
Like
at
the
end
like
the
only


thing
Butcherson
written
laws
is
some


sort
of
stomach
to
enforce
them,
right?

Lev: 是的。法律是一种社会协调机制,为了让它发挥作用,我们必须有共同的理解并遵守它。这就是为什么像这样的事情具有如此高的利害关系,因为当一个政府行为者公然违反先前的理解时,它就会撕裂法律作为一种共识建立机制的结构。顺便说一句,11:26,终端上刚刚闪过一个头条新闻。库克的律师说她将提起诉讼挑战解雇。所以这已经确认了。

View/Hide Original English

Yes.
Law
is
a
social
coordinating


mechanism
and
in
order
for
it
to
work,


we
have
to
have
the
shared
understanding


and
follow
it.
And
that's
why
things


like
this
have
such
high
stakes
because


when
a
government
actor
flagrantly


violates
what
the
prior
understanding


is,
it
sort
of
tears
at
the
fabric
of


law
as
a
consensus
building
mechanism.


By
the
way,
11:26
uh
headline
just


flashing
through
the
terminal.
Lawyer


for
Fence
Cook
says
she
will
file


lawsuit
challenging
firing.
So
that's


confirmed.

中央银行独立性的重要性

Tracy: 显然仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。总结一下,我只是想让某人非常清楚地阐述这个论点,而莱夫,你通常能做到这一点。你通常做得很好。所以……

View/Hide Original English

>> Clearly
still
a
live
issue.
Just
to


recap,
I
just
want
someone
to
lay
out


this
argument
very
clearly
and
you
tend


to
do
that,
Lev.
Uh
you
tend
to
do
it


very
well.
So

Tracy: 为什么中央银行独立性很重要?

View/Hide Original English

>> why
is
central
bank
independence


important?

Lev: 这是一个大问题,可能足以支撑一整期节目,我想你们以前也探讨过,你也和其他一些嘉宾探讨过。我看了你和卡罗拉·宾德(Corolla Binder)的节目。中央银行独立性之所以重要,原因在于经济学家们提出的,这与信誉(credibility: 指中央银行在制定和执行货币政策时,其承诺和行动被公众和市场信任的程度)和长期决策最能由专门官员推动有关,对吧?你不想让人们承担过多的相互竞争的优先事项。你会得到质量较低的政策。所以这就是为什么这里有14年的任期,因为我们希望美联储官员做出长期决策。我们不希望关于货币供应变化的短期决策。所有这些都是真的。存在时间不一致问题。这是一个长期政策领域。但我实际上认为,现在重要的是要强调一些在经济学文献中并非主要部分或根本不是任何部分的东西,那就是权力分立(separation of powers: 指政府权力被分配到不同的分支机构,如立法、行政和司法,以防止权力过度集中和滥用)和民主。你不想把过多的权力集中在政府中的任何一个人身上。这实际上是美国宪法体系中的一个基本思想。可以说,开国元勋们在权力分立方面走得太远了。他们让政府很难做事。而这里发生的是,我们以一种会让所有宪法制定者在坟墓里翻身的方式,将权力集中在总统身上,并允许行政部门控制货币供应。这实际上是导致1688年光荣革命的一个问题。这是开国元勋们关注的关键问题之一,即将货币供应的控制权与行政部门分离。所以中央银行独立性也关乎良好治理和防止暴政。亚历山大·汉密尔顿(Alexander Hamilton)在他的《关于国家银行的报告》(Report on a National Bank)中也提到了这一点。所以这不仅仅是为了拥有最优的长期货币政策。它还关乎防止一个人控制过多权力。你知道,在过去的15年左右,或者从2010年到2020年,存在一种对中央银行独立性的左翼批判,但它似乎非常关注这样一种观点,即中央银行通过拥有这种……你知道,它只是没有民主问责制,它对货币持有者的利益负责,以不失去其货币的价值,这限制了劳动的反弹等等。这些批判是否因为你提出的论点变得更重要而突然消失了?

View/Hide Original English

This
is
a
big
question
that
could


probably
support
an
entire
episode
and
I


think
you
guys
have
we
have
explored


this
at
other
times
and
you've
explored


it
with
some
other
guests.
I
saw
your


episode
with
Corolla
Binder.
Central


bank
independence
is
important
for
the


reasons
that
the
economists
put
forward


which
have
to
do
with
credibility
and


long-term
decisionm
being
best
furthered


by
special
purpose
officials.
Right?
You


don't
want
to
overload
people
with


competing
priorities.
You're
going
to


get
less
quality
policy.
And
so
that's


why
you
have
a
14-year
term
of
office


here
because
we
want
Fed
officials


making
long-term
decisions.
We
don't


want
short-term
decisions
about
changes


in
the
money
supply.
And
so
all
of


that's
true.
There's
a
time


inconsistency
problem.
This
is
a


long-term
policym
domain.
But
I
actually


think
right
now
it's
important
to


emphasize
something
that's
not
actually


a
big
part
or
really
any
part
of
the


economics
literature
and
that
has
to
do


with
the
separation
of
powers
and


democracy.
And
you
don't
want
to


concentrate
too
much
power
in
a


government
in
any
one
person.
And
that's


actually
a
foundational
idea
in
the


American
constitutional
system.
Arguably


the
founders
went
too
far
in
separating


powers.
They
made
it
very
difficult
for


the
government
to
do
stuff.
And
what's


happened
here
is
we've
concentrated


power
in
the
president
in
a
way
that


would
have
all
of
the
framers
of
the


constitution
rolling
in
their
graves
and


to
allow
the
executive
to
control
the


money
supply.
That's
literally
an
issue


that
led
to
the
glorious
revolution
in


1688.
It's
one
of
the
key
concerns
of


the
founders
is
to
separate
control
of


the
money
supply
from
the
executive.
And


so
central
bank
independence
is
also


about
good
government
and
preventing


tyranny.
And
Alexander
Hamilton
said


this
in
his
report
on
a
national
bank.


And
so
it's
not
just
about
having


optimal
long-term
monetary
policy.
It's


also
about
preventing
one
person
from


controlling
way
too
much.
You
know,
for


the
maybe
the
last
15
years
or
maybe


from
2010
through
20
through
co
there


was
like
a
left
critique
of
central
bank


independence
but
it
was
very
you
know
it


seemed
to
be
very
focused
on
this
idea


that
the
central
bank
by
having
this


like
you
know
a
was
just
not


democratically
accountable
that
it
was


accountable
to
the
interests
of
money


holders
to
not
lose
the
value
of
their


money
that
that
was
constraining
the


rebound
of
labor
etc.
Are
those


critiques
suddenly
vanishing
because
it


feels
more
important
to
make
the


argument
that
you're
making?

Lev: 所以,我一直觉得那些批评部分正确,部分错误。

View/Hide Original English

>> So,
I
always
felt
those
critiques
were


part
right
and
part
wrong.

Tracy: 好的。

View/Hide Original English

>> Okay.

Lev: 正确的部分是,美国的中央银行在结构上过于迎合金融利益,而对国会和美国人民的利益反应不足。这导致在很长一段时间内货币政策过于紧缩。但解决办法不是让美联储受白宫控制。这不是解决民主货币政策不足的办法。解决办法是改变联邦储备系统的结构以及影响这些官员的人。这意味着增加国会的影响力。它可能意味着增加司法审查的机会。美联储几乎没有司法审查。它可能意味着将银行家从地区联邦储备银行的董事会中移除。它可能意味着改变美联储的职责和它正在执行的法定方案。除了将其置于总统之下,还有各种方法可以创建一个对民主利益更负责任的行政机构。而实际上将一个机构置于总统之下,我们有很多关于它会是什么样子的经验,这使得大多数政策总体上更有利于富有的商业利益。所以,肯定有一个有效的批评,即我们所知的中央银行独立性,以及中央银行的构建方式,导致中央银行政策偏向某些利益。但解决这个问题的方法不是让总统介入,那会让中央银行政策更具吸引力和适当性。

View/Hide Original English

>> And
the
part
that
was
right
is
that
the


central
bank
in
the
United
States
was


structured
in
a
way
that
made
it
too


responsive
to
financial
interests
and


not
responsive
enough
to
the
Congress


and
to
the
American
people's
interest.


and
that
led
to
an
excessively
tight


monetary
policy
over
an
extended
period


of
time.
But
the
solution
to
that
is
not


to
have
a
Federal
Reserve
under
the


control
of
the
White
House.
That
is
not


a
solution
to
an
insufficiently


democratic
monetary
policy.
The
solution


is
to
change
the
structure
of
the


Federal
Reserve
system
and
who


influences
those
officials.
And
that


means
increasing
the
influence
of


Congress.
It
might
mean
increasing


opportunities
for
judicial
review.


There's
almost
no
judicial
review
of
the


Fed.
It
might
mean
removing
the
bankers


from
the
boards
of
the
regional
Federal


Reserve
banks.
It
might
mean
changing


the
Fed's
responsibilities
and
the


statutory
scheme
that
it's
executing.


There
are
all
sorts
of
ways
to
create
an


administrative
agency
that
is
more


responsive
to
democratic
interests


besides
putting
it
under
the
president.


and
actually
putting
an
agency
under
the


president.
We
have
actually
a
bunch
of


experience
with
what
that
looks
like
and


that
makes
most
policy
as
a
general


matter
more
favorable
to
wealthy


business
interests.
And
so
there's


definitely
a
valid
critique
that
central


bank
independence
as
we
knew
it
as


central
banks
were
constructed
led
to
a


bias
in
central
bank
policy
towards


certain
interests.
But
the
solution
to


that
problem
isn't
let's
bring
in
the


president
that
will
make
the
central


bank
policy
more
appealing
and


appropriate.

总结与展望

Tracy: 莱夫·梅南德,非常感谢您再次来到 Odd Lots,参加又一期关于中央银行独立性的节目。非常感谢。

View/Hide Original English

>> Levand,
thank
you
so
much
for
coming


back
on
OddLotss
for
yet
another
central


bank
independence
episode.
Appreciate


it.

Lev: 谢谢邀请我。

View/Hide Original English

>> Thank
you
for
having
me.

[音乐]

Joe: Tracy,很高兴能请到莱夫。我觉得他把问题解释得非常非常清楚。我想我们拭目以待,看看法院系统和美联储内部会发生什么,因为我觉得他提出的这个想法非常有趣,即这里有两条平行的法律轨道,美联储也有义务遵守法律,所以他们需要自己判断这次解雇是否合法。

View/Hide Original English

[Music]


Joe,
always
good
to
get
Levan.
I
feel


like
he
explains
the
issue
very,
very


clearly.
I
guess
we'll
see
what
happens


both
in
the
court
system
and
also
within


the
Fed
itself
because
I
thought
it
was


really
interesting
this
idea
of
like
two


parallel
legal
tracks
here
where
the
Fed


is
obligated
to
also
follow
the
law
and


so
they
need
to
figure
out
for


themselves
whether
or
not
the
firing
is


legal.

Tracy: 绝对是。我的意思是,这非常严肃,是那种高风险的即时事件,有些问题在它们提交到最高法院之前不容易解决。

View/Hide Original English

>> Absolutely.
I
mean
this
is
very
serious


like
sort
of
high
stakes
immediate
stuff


that
there
are
questions
that
are
not


easily
resolved
by
the
time
they
uh
get


to
the
Supreme
Court.
I
also
just
found

Joe: 我也觉得他的论点很有说服力,比如一项指控不能构成“因”,对吧?抛开什么构成“因”不谈,也许在这个特定案件中这有些模糊等等。我们只有一项指控。

View/Hide Original English

>> his
argument
very
like
persuasive
that


like
an
allegation
is
not
cause
right


like
setting
aside
like
you
know
what


constitutes
cause
and
maybe
that
is


ambiguous
in
this
particular
case
etc.


All
we
have
is
an
allegation,

Tracy: 对吧?应该有正当程序来确定这项指控是否属实。此外,这项指控实际上并没有发生在丽莎·库克任职期间,这也影响了渎职的论点。

View/Hide Original English

>> right?
There's
supposed
to
be
due


process
to
figure
out
whether
or
not
the


allegation
is
in
fact
true.
Also,
an


allegation
that
didn't
actually
happen


while
Lisa
Cook
was
in
office,
which


also
plays
into
that
malfeasance


argument.

Joe: 我猜我们将来会有更多关于这个话题的讨论。那么,我们现在就到此为止吧?

View/Hide Original English

>> I'm
guessing
we'll
have
plenty
more
to


talk
about
on
this
topic
in
the
future.


So,
uh,
shall
we
leave
it
there
for
now?

Tracy: 就到这里吧。

View/Hide Original English

>> Let's
leave
it
there.

Tracy: 这是 Odd Lots 播客的又一期节目。我是 Tracy Alloway。您可以在 @TracyAlloway 关注我。

View/Hide Original English

>> This
has
been
another
episode
of
the
Odd


Thoughts
podcast.
I'm
Tracy
Aloway.
You


can
follow
me
at
Tracy
Aloway

Joe: 我是 Joe Weisenthal。您可以在 @TheStalwart 关注我。关注我们的嘉宾莱夫·梅南德,他的推特是 @LevMenand。关注我们的制作人 Kerman Rodriguez,他的推特是 @KermanArmanDashBennett,他的推特是 @Dashbot,还有 Kalebrooks,他的推特是 @Kalebrooks。更多 Odd Lots 内容,请访问 bloomberg.com/odlots,我们每天都有新闻通讯和所有节目。您还可以在我们的 Discord 频道 discord.gg/odlots 24/7 讨论所有这些话题。

View/Hide Original English

>> and
I'm
Joe
Weisenth.
You
can
follow
me


at
the
stalwart.
Follow
our
guest
Lev


Manand.
He's
Lev
Manand.
Follow
our


producers
Kerman
Rodriguez
at
Kerman


Arman
Dash
Bennett
at
Dashbot
and


Kalebrooks
at
Kalebrooks.
For
more


OddLots
content,
go
to


bloomberg.com/odlots


where
we
have
a
daily
newsletter
and
all


of
our
episodes.
And
you
can
chat
about


all
of
these
topics
24/7
in
our
Discord,


discord.gg/odlots.

Tracy: 享受 Odd Lots。如果您喜欢我们制作的这些紧急节目,请在您最喜欢的播客平台给我们留下好评。请记住,如果您是彭博社的订阅者,您可以完全免费收听我们所有的节目。您只需在 Apple Podcast 上找到彭博社频道并按照那里的说明操作即可。感谢收听。

View/Hide Original English

>> And
enjoy
OddLots.
If
you
like
it
when


we
do
these
emergency
episodes,
then


please
leave
us
a
positive
review
on


your
favorite
podcast
platform.
And


remember,
if
you
are
a
Bloomberg


subscriber,
you
can
listen
to
all
of
our


episodes
absolutely
adree.
All
you
need


to
do
is
find
the
Bloomberg
channel
on


Apple
Podcast
and
follow
the


instructions
there.
Thanks
for


listening.

[音乐]

View/Hide Original English

[Music]


Hey.


[Music]