播客开场与就业报告的冲击
[音乐]
Bloomberg(彭博社)音频工作室,播客、广播、新闻。
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Bloomberg
Audio
Studios
podcasts,
radio,
news.
[Music]
Joe: 大家好,欢迎收听《Odd Lots》(一档由彭博社制作的金融与经济主题播客)的又一期节目。我是Tracy Alloway。
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>> Hello
and
welcome
to
another
episode
of
the
Odd
Thoughts
podcast.
I'm
Tracy
Aloway
Tracy: 我是Joe Weisenthal。
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>> and
I'm
Joe
Wisenthal.
Joe: Joe,我周五有点错过了这个消息,因为我身体不太舒服,所以请了病假。但是,当你坐在你的Bloomberg terminal(彭博终端:一个提供实时金融数据、新闻和分析的计算机系统)前时,周五早上是什么样的?
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>> Joe,
I
kind
of
missed
this
on
Friday
because
I
was
not
feeling
very
well.
So
I
I
was
out
sick.
But
uh
what
was
Friday
morning
like
when
you
were
sat
in
front
of
your
Bloomberg
terminal?
Tracy: 嗯,就业报告相当令人震惊。显然,周五是疯狂的一天。我的意思是,就业报告显然很糟糕。过去两个月的数据被大幅下修。所有关于劳动力市场动能的证据似乎都停滞不前。关税效应,也许我们真的正处于某种关税引发的经济放缓之中。唯一的就业增长来自医疗保健和社会服务领域,这不太好。
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>> Well,
the
jobs
report
was
pretty
uh
shocking.
Obvious
Friday
was
just
a
crazy
day.
I
mean
so
the
jobs
report
obviously
was
it
was
it
was
bad.
I
mean
the
last
two
months
massively
revised
down.
All
of
this
evidence
of
labor
market
momentum
perhaps
seems
to
be
stalling.
The
tariff
effect
maybe
we
really
are
and
it's
sort
of
some
sort
of
tariff
induced
slowdown.
The
only
job
creation
is
in
healthcare
and
social
service.
Not
great,
Joe: 对吧?好的。所以,我看到了最初的就业报告头条。我们有非农就业人数(non-farm payrolls: 美国劳工统计局每月发布的就业数据,衡量除农业部门以外的就业人数变化)增加了7.3万人,这比平均预期低了大约30%。我们的失业率(unemployment rate: 衡量劳动力市场健康状况的关键指标,指失业人口占总劳动力的比例)上升到了4.3%左右。
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>> right?
Okay.
So,
I
saw
the
initial
jobs
report
headlines.
So,
we
had
non-farm
payrolls
coming
in
at
plus
73,000,
which
I
think
was
like
30%
lower
than
the
average
expectation.
We
had
the
unemployment
rate
ticking
up
to
like
4.3%
Tracy: 4.2%。
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>> 4.2
Joe: 几乎4.3%。
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>> 4
almost
4.3%.
Tracy: 哦。哦,对不起。
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>> Oh.
Oh,
let
me
let
me
Sorry.
Joe: 我在这里四舍五入了。
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>> I'm
rounding
up
here.
Tracy: 好的,好的,好的。尽管在这样一个全是劳动力市场统计数据的播客中,我或许不该这样做。但似乎引起所有人关注的大事件是,我们还对五月和六月的报告进行了大幅修订。所以,我们基本上从最初的报告中合计下调了25.8万个就业岗位。这是自疫情最严重时期以来最大的一次修订。然后,周五下午当我躺在病床上时,真正引起我注意的头条新闻是,特朗普解雇了劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS: 美国劳工部下属的一个主要统计机构,负责收集、处理、分析和发布美国劳动力市场、经济和价格统计数据)的局长。这个机构每月负责发布非农就业报告。
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>> Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Although
maybe
I
shouldn't
do
that
on
a
podcast
all
about
labor
market
statistics.
But
the
big
thing
that
seemed
to
catch
everyone's
attention
was
we
also
had
these
massive
revisions
to
the
report
for
May
and
June.
So
we
had
a
combined
258,000
jobs
basically
lowered
from
the
initial
reports.
And
this
was
like
the
biggest
revision
since
the
depths
of
the
pandemic.
And
then
the
headline
that
really
caught
my
eye
while
I
was,
you
know,
laying
in
my
sick
bed
on
Friday
afternoon
was
Trump
firing
the
head
of
the
Bureau
of
Labor
Statistics.
So
the
agency
responsible
for
putting
out
the
non-farm
payroll
report
every
month.
政治干预与数据公信力
Tracy: 是的,我认为关键在于,我们已经习惯了看到这些重大的修订。你尤其在时事通讯中写了很多关于劳工统计数据质量下降的问题。许多调查的回应率随着时间推移而下降,就像我们在政治民意调查中看到的那样。所以,一直存在这种焦虑。网上有很多人,包括特朗普总统本人,都在煽动关于这些修订的阴谋论,尽管这些修订实际上是为了透明化。然后,在本届政府任期内,你看到了第一份真正负面的报告。这是第一份让人觉得“好吧,这很糟糕”的报告。然后,砰的一声,特朗普解雇了负责此事的人。现在,这又是那种情况,就像“Doge”(此处指代不明,可能为口误或指代某个因效率低下或预算削减而受批评的政府项目或机构,或指DogeCoin等具有讽刺意味的现象)本身一样,我喜欢政府效率的想法,对吧?是的,当然,Doge,我喜欢BLS以某种方式做得更好或解决这些回应问题的想法,但就像Doge一样,我们都知道结果如何。我认为关于解雇BLS局长并由特朗普任命的人接替是否会增加数据可信度和透明度,存在很多很多疑问。
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>> Yeah,
this
is
um
I
would
say
the
key
thing
is
that
a
we've
been
used
to
these
uh
you
know
seeing
significant
revisions.
We've
been
talking,
you
in
particular
have
been
writing
a
lot
in
the
newsletter
about
deteriorating
quality
of
labor
statistics.
Response
rates
to
a
lot
of
surveys
have
gone
down
over
time.
Kind
of
like
we're
seeing
in
political
opinion
surveys
and
so
forth.
So
there's
already
been
this
sort
of
anxiety.
You
have
a
lot
of
people
online,
including
President
Trump
himself,
you
know,
been
like
stoking
sort
of
these
conspiracy
theories
about
these
revisions,
these
attempts
to
actually
be
transparent.
And
then
you
get
the
first
sort
of
like
genuinely
negative
report
under
this
administration.
It's
the
first
one
that
was
like,
"Okay,
this
was
bad."
And
boom,
Trump
fires
uh
the
person
responsible
for
it.
Now,
again,
this
is
one
of
those
things
where
sort
of
like
Doge
itself
where
it's
like,
I
like
the
idea
of
government
efficiency,
right?
Yeah,
sure.
Doge,
I
like
the
idea
of
the
BLS
sort
of
doing
a
better
job
in
some
way
or
addressing
these
responses,
but
like
Doge,
which
you
know,
we
all
have
seen
how
that's
turned
out.
I
think
there
are
a
lot
of
more
than
a
lot
of
questions
more
than
a
lot
of
questions
about
whether
firing
the
BLS
and
replacing
the
head
with
someone
who's
uh
you
know
a
Trump
appointee
will
uh
you
know
add
a
more
credible
transparent
data
quality.
Joe: 对。我们从所有关于美国数据收集的节目中学到的一件事是,这实际上是一项非常非常耗费人力的工作。你必须真正地打电话给很多人,例如房主,或者你必须打电话给很多企业并提出问题。你必须去实地收集个别价格。我们可以争论是否可以使用新技术、价格扫描数据来提高所有这些的效率。但就目前而言,这就是它的完成方式。所以,你需要人来做。如果Doge进来并削减了很大一部分预算,那么这项工作就变得更难做了。或者如果成本更高而预算却减少了。然后我想说的一点是,在我们的对话中,你多次与BLS交谈过,他们真的很好。他们是专业人士,他们非常认真地对待这项工作。
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>> Right.
One
thing
that
we
have
learned
from
all
our
episodes
on
data
collection
in
the
US
is
that
it
is
actually
a
really
really
insanely
laborintensive
thing
to
do.
you
have
to
actually
call
up
a
bunch
of
people,
um,
homeowners
for
instance,
or
you
have
to
call
up
a
bunch
of
businesses
and
ask
questions.
You
have
to
go
out
into
the
field
and
gather
individual
prices.
And
we
can
have
a
debate
over
whether
or
not
you
could
maybe
use
new
technology,
price
scanning
data
to
make
all
of
that
more
efficient.
But
for
the
time
being,
that's
how
it's
done.
And
so,
you
need
people
to
do
it.
And
if
Doge
comes
in
and
eliminates,
you
know,
a
big
chunk
of
the
budget,
then
it
becomes
harder
to
do.
or
if
it
just
gets
more
costly
and
the
budget's
gone
up.
And
then
the
one
thing
I
would
say
is
that
in
our
conversations
and
again
you
have
talked
to
the
BLS
many
times
they
are
really
good.
They
are
professionals
and
they
take
it
very
seriously.
Tracy: 他们非常积极响应。然而,
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>> They
are
very
responsive.
However,
Joe: 非常透明。
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>> very
transparent.
Tracy: 我们可以稍微谈谈这个,但最近几周他们的响应可能不如以前。所以,无论如何,我们应该谈谈所有这些。我认为这非常重要,正如你所说,存在很大的疑问,比如如果一位总统罢免了BLS局长,然后任命一位新的,会发生什么?我们有完美的嘉宾,我们之前也曾与他谈论过美国数据基础设施的衰落。我们将与Bill Beachch交谈。他当然是前劳工统计局局长,前BLS负责人。所以Bill,非常感谢你再次来到《Odd Lots》。
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>> We
could
talk
about
this
a
little
bit
but
perhaps
less
responsive
than
they
used
to
be
in
recent
weeks.
So
anyway,
we
should
talk
about
all
of
this.
I
think
it's
really
important
and
as
you
said
there
are
big
questions
like
what
happens
if
a
president
ousts
a
BLS
chief
and
then
introduces
a
new
one.
We
have
the
perfect
guest
someone
we've
spoken
to
before
about
the
decline
of
America's
data
infrastructure.
We're
going
to
be
speaking
with
Bill
Beachch.
He
is
of
course
the
former
commissioner
of
labor
statistics,
former
head
of
the
BLS.
So
Bill,
thank
you
so
much
for
coming
back
on
All
Thoughts.
前BLS局长Bill Beach的看法
Bill Beach: 是的,很高兴能再次和你们在一起。我希望我们谈论的是除了这次解雇之外的其他话题。我的意思是,这真的只是……
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>> Yeah,
it's
just
just
really
a
pleasure
to
be
back
with
you.
I
wish
we
uh
were
talking
about
some
other
subject
besides
this
termination.
I
mean,
it's
just
really
Joe: 震惊。好吧,就此而言,周五特朗普发推文或发帖称他想解雇劳工统计局局长Erica McNurfer。当你看到这个消息时,你心里在想什么?
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>> shock.
Well,
on
that
note,
Friday
uh
Trump
tweets
or
posts
that
he
wants
to
fire
Erica
McNurfer,
the
commissioner
of
labor
statistics.
What
was
going
through
your
mind
when
you
saw
that
news?
Bill Beach: 我当时惊呆了。我刚在一个非常好的餐厅结束午餐会议,我正坐在我的皮卡车里,我简直不敢相信。然后我坐在那里大概三四十分钟,车子开着,回复着人们的邮件,大家都在整理这件事。并不是说他没有权力这样做。他确实有权力,我们都知道,行政部门的每个人都为总统服务,除了那些被法规明确豁免且该法规已由总统签署的人。我认为这件事令人震惊的不是她被解雇了。这本身已经够令人震惊了。而是我们现在可能会对官方经济统计数据进行持续攻击,这将损害人们对这些统计数据的信心,并使我们走上其他国家已经走过的道路。我的意思是,人们立刻想到了最坏的情况。过了一会儿,这种情绪平息下来,我们开始审视解雇的原因,我随后在Twitter或X上表示,这些原因是没有根据的,我从未改变过这个立场。所以很乐意谈论它。
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>> I
was
dumbass.
I
just
finished
a
lunchon
meeting
at
a
very
nice
restaurant
and
I
was
sitting
in
my
pickup
truck
and
I
just
couldn't
believe
and
then
I
sat
there
for
probably
30
40
minutes
car
running
and
answering
emails
people
just
sorting
it
out.
It
isn't
that
he
didn't
have
the
authority
to
do
so.
He
does
have
the
authority
and
we
all,
you
know,
everyone
in
the
executive
branch
serves
at
the
pleasure
of
the
president
except
those
that
have
been
specifically
exempted
by
statute
and
and
where
that
statute's
been
signed
by
the
president.
I
think
what
was
shocking
about
this
is
not
that
she
was
dismissed.
That's
shocking
enough.
It
was
the
possibility
that
we
could
have
now
a
sustained
attack
on
official
economic
statistics
and
that
would
undermine
confidence
in
those
statistics
and
put
us
in
a
path
that
other
countries
have
followed.
I
mean
instantly
people
went
to
worst
case.
After
a
while
that
sort
of
settled
down
and
we
began
to
look
at
the
reasons
for
for
the
dismissal
which
I
then
subsequently
said
on
Twitter
or
X
that
were
they
were
they
were
unfounded
and
I
haven't
dropped
that
that
position
since.
So
happy
to
talk
about
it.
BLS面临的挑战与数据现代化需求
Joe: 好吧,我们先退一步。我们之前和你谈过,因为你一直在就收集优质数据的能力限制发出警告。但对于那些没有听过或没有关注你的人来说,你曾是特朗普任命的官员。我的意思是,你曾在2017年担任BLS的负责人。所以,我确实,你知道,所以就像,好吧,你的可信度,你能不能给我们介绍一下你的背景,你的职位,以及你长期以来对BLS面临的限制所提出的担忧?所以,我很荣幸能从2019年到2023年担任劳工统计局局长。所以,我在特朗普总统任期内服务了不到两年。他提名了我。这是一个总统提名,参议院确认的职位。它有一个法定的四年任期。然后我在拜登总统任期内完成了我的剩余任期。所以,我在这两个任期内都任职。我认为这很重要,因为BLS局长一直被豁免于总统党派更迭的正常轮换,这是因为人们认为这些数据非常重要,它们甚至不应该成为政治任命过程的一部分,除非到了任期届满的时候,就像美联储主席或其他类似性质的职位一样。它被视为我们希望将其置于政治之外。所以,我在那段时间里任职。你知道,那是新冠疫情时期。所以,面临着各种真正的挑战。但我认为我从那段时间得出的主要结论是,数据收集方式的现代化是多么重要,几乎达到了危机水平。调查的回应率急剧下降。我在这个节目中也强调过这一点。而且我们的成本急剧上升,这使得未来很难像过去那样进行这些调查,而未来正朝着就业调查的方向发展,我刚才说调查正在下降,但就业调查有点不同,它不是面对面的调查,它是一种电子调查,我们需要在统计创建或生产的电子方面投入更多,混合数据等等。我可以就此做一期节目,但你的观点说得很好。BLS面临着一些挑战,整个统计系统也是如此。不幸的是,对于这一特定事件,这些挑战并不是,我不是说不相关。它们当然相关,但它们并不是我们应该更换最高领导层的原因。
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>> Well,
why
don't
we
just
back
up
for
a
second?
We
talked
to
you
before
cuz
you've
been
sounding
the
alarm
about
the
capacity
constraints
to
collect
good
data.
But
just
for
people
who
haven't
listened
to
or
haven't
followed
you,
you
were
a
Trump
appointee.
I
mean,
you
served
at
the
head
of
the
BLS
in
2017.
And
so
I
do,
you
know,
and
so
like,
okay,
your
credibility,
why
don't
you
just
give
us
a
little
bit
of
background
about
who
you
are,
your
position,
and
the
concerns
that
you've
been
raising
for
some
time
about
the
constraints
at
the
BLS?
So,
I
was
uh
I
was
really
honored
to
be
the
commissioner
of
labor
statistics
from
2019
until
2023.
So,
I
served
a
little
less
than
two
years
under
President
Trump.
He
nominated
me.
It
is
a
presidential
nomination,
Senate
confirmed
positions.
It
has
a
statutory
four-year
term.
And
then
I
served
the
rest
of
my
term
under
President
Biden.
So,
I
I
was
in
both
terms.
I
I
think
that's
kind
of
important
because
the
BLS
commissioner
has
been
exempt
from
the
normal
turning
over
of
the
presidency
by
party
and
that's
because
the
view
is
well
these
data
are
so
important
they
should
not
even
be
a
part
of
the
political
appointment
process
except
when
they
come
due
sort
of
like
u
you
know
the
Federal
Reserve
chair
or
something
of
that
nature.
It's
just
seen
as
we
want
to
keep
it
out
of
politics.
So
I
I
served
over
that
period
of
time.
You
know,
that
was
the
COVID
period.
So
there
were
all
kinds
of
real
challenges
from
that.
But
I
think
the
main
thing
that
I
drew
from
that
period
is
how
important
it
is
crucial
almost
at
a
crisis
level
to
modernize
the
way
we
collect
data.
The
response
rates
on
the
surveys
are
falling
dramatically.
I've
made
that
point
on
this
program.
and
our
costs
are
rising
dramatically
which
makes
it
really
difficult
to
conduct
those
surveys
in
the
future
in
the
way
we
have
in
the
past
and
then
the
future
is
a
kind
of
a
going
in
the
direction
of
the
employment
survey
and
I
just
said
surveys
are
are
are
following
but
the
employment
survey
is
a
little
different
it's
not
an
in-person
survey
it
is
an
electronic
survey
and
we
need
to
invest
more
in
the
electronic
side
of
statistical
creation
or
production
blended
data
etc
I
could
do
a
program
on
this,
but
your
your
point
was
well
made.
BLS
has
had
some
challenges
in
front
of
it,
as
has
the
entire
statistical
system.
Unfortunately,
for
this
particular
episode,
those
challenges
were
really
not
I
don't
say
relevant.
They
they're
relevant,
of
course,
but
they're
really
not
the
reason
why
we
should
have
had
a
a
change
at
the
top.
H
well
speaking
of
the
employment
report
talk
to
us
about
what
exactly
happens
when
the
BLS
is
publishing
the
initial
non-farm
payrolls
and
then
what
happens
you
know
in
the
couple
months
or
so
before
it
publishes
the
revision
and
why
does
it
seem
we
are
getting
these
large
gaps
at
least
in
recent
months
and
years
就业数据修订的机制与原因
Joe: 对,所以就业调查,就业数据来自对企业的调查;失业率来自对家庭的调查。所以,每个第一个周五的报告都涉及两项调查。我们现在谈论的是针对企业的调查,它发送给数十万家企业。当然,这仍然是一个概率样本,因为在我们的企业普查、我们的企业登记中,有超过1200万家企业。这些企业应该在月底前提交他们的调查,但通常只有大约68%的企业这样做。所以BLS会把窗口再开放两个月。所以,在第一个月底,大约68%的企业提交了,他们会做出第一个估计。然后,在第二个月底,我们大约有83%的完成率,他们会修正第一个月的数字。然后到第三个月,我们进入90%的区间。通常最终会有大约93%到94%的所有发出的回复带着信息回到我们这里。所以这是一项很棒的调查。修订之所以进行,是因为我们从企业那里获得了更多的信息。通常情况下,大企业会首先回复。他们有能力这样做,然后我们收到较小的实体、州和地方政府的回复。小企业会在接下来的两个月内回复。我们总是有修订。我无法想象,即使我们说数字没有变化,这也不意味着我们没有修订,它们只是相互抵消了。所有这些修订都在不断到来。最近的修订幅度很大,但这在一个经济要么恢复增长要么走向衰退的时期并非不典型。所以,经济的转折点往往伴随着修订中较大的变化,特别是在这种情况下,我们怀疑小企业正在感受到关税政策和移民带来的供应冲击的影响,这些供应冲击对小企业的影响比对大企业更大,而州和地方政府又受到另一个因素的影响,那就是新冠疫情时代资金的到期。我认为这实际上是周五你看到许多变化根源。州和地方政府无法像往年那样雇佣人员,因为他们没有往年那样的补贴。所以,这些都是重要的修订。实际上,研究表明,这可能会让你震惊,BLS在首次估计方面比30年前做得更好了。事实上,这几乎是一种稳步提高准确性的过程。所以,大的修订并不表示错误,它们表示获得了更多信息。修订越大,我们越有可能处于一个转折点。你的回答中包含了如此多的内容,我觉得非常有帮助和澄清。所以,谢谢你。我的意思是,这个想法,你知道,A,实际上随着时间的推移,与Twitter上人们可能认为的相反,第一次通过的质量实际上提高了,这非常引人注目。你知道,让我们假设这一点。好的,BLS可能需要一些升级,正如你提到的,存在这些能力限制、无回应、外出成本,也许它需要以某种方式采用更多技术来解决这个问题。BLS目前是否拥有这种能力,无论是预算方面还是法定权力方面,使得局长可以做到理想状态下的任何事情,或者它是否需要某种预算拨款或国会法案才能达到我们再次满意的水平?
View/Hide Original English
>> right
so
the
employment
survey
the
jobs
numbers
come
from
a
survey
of
businesses
uh
the
unemployment
rate
comes
from
a
survey
of
households.
So
there's
two
surveys
involved
in
every
first
Friday
report.
What
we're
talking
about
now
is
the
survey
that
goes
out
to
businesses
and
it
goes
out
to
hundreds
of
thousands
of
businesses.
Well,
of
course
there
still
a
probability
sample
since
there's
well
in
excess
of
12
million
businesses
in
our
census
of
business,
our
business
register.
Well,
those
businesses
are
supposed
to
turn
their
surveys
in
at
the
end
of
the
month
basically,
but
only
about
68%
usually
that's
the
average
do
so.
And
so
BLS
keeps
the
window
open
for
two
more
months.
So
68%
or
so
at
the
end
of
the
first
month
they
make
the
first
estimate.
Then
at
the
end
of
the
second
month,
we've
get
about
83%
completion
and
they
revise
that
number
of
the
first
month.
And
then
by
the
third
month
we're
into
the
90s.
Usually
end
up
around
93
94%
of
all
the
sent
out
returns
come
back
to
us
with
information.
So
it's
a
wonderful
survey.
The
revisions
are
done
because
we
get
more
information
from
businesses.
Often
times
big
businesses
answer
first.
They
have
the
capacity
to
do
so
and
then
we
get
smaller
entities,
state
and
local
governments.
Smaller
businesses
answer
in
those
next
two
months.
We
always
have
revisions.
There's
there's
I
can't
I
can't
imag
even
when
it
when
we
say
the
number
did
not
change
it
doesn't
mean
we
we
didn't
have
revisions
they
just
canceled
each
other
out.
There's
just
all
these
revisions
are
coming
in.
The
revisions
have
been
uh
high
recently
but
this
is
not
atypical
of
a
period
when
the
economy
is
either
going
back
to
growth
or
going
down
to
subsidance.
So
often
times
turning
points
in
the
economy
are
accompanied
by
changes
larger
changes
in
the
revisions
particularly
in
this
case
where
we
suspect
smaller
businesses
are
feeling
the
effects
of
the
supply
shock
coming
from
the
tariff
policy
and
from
immigration
and
that
these
supply
shocks
are
affecting
smaller
businesses
more
than
they
are
larger
businesses
and
state
and
local
governments
are
being
affected
by
yet
another
factor
and
that
is
the
expiration
of
the
co
era
money.
I
think
that's
was
actually
the
root
of
a
lot
of
the
changes
that
you
saw
on
Friday.
State
and
local
governments
are
not
able
to
to
hire
at
the
levels
they
were
going
to
hire
at
in
previous
years
or
did
hire
at
in
previous
years
because
they
did
not
have
the
subsidies
that
they
had
in
previous
years.
So,
these
are
important
revisions.
Actually,
the
research
shows,
and
this
may
shock
you,
that
BLS
is
getting
much
better
at
its
first
estimate
than
it
was
30
years
ago.
In
fact,
it's
really
kind
of
almost
a
a
steady
progress
towards
greater
accuracy.
So,
the
big
revisions
are
indicative
of
not
air,
they're
indicative
of
more
information.
And
the
bigger
the
revisions,
the
more
likely
we
are
in
a
turning
point.
There's
so
much
that
was
in
that
answer
that
I
found
to
be
very
helpful
and
clarifying.
So,
thank
you.
I
mean,
just
this
idea,
you
know,
a
that
actually
over
time,
contrary
to
what
people
on
Twitter
might
think,
that
the
quality
of
that
first
pass
has
actually
gone
up
is
uh
um
is
very
striking.
You
know,
let's
stipulate
that.
Okay,
the
BLS
could
use
some
upgrading
as
you
mentioned
that
there
are
these
capacity
constraints,
non-response,
the
cost
of
going
out,
maybe
it
needs
to
adopt
more
technology
in
some
way
to
solve
for
this.
Does
the
BLS
currently
have
that
capacity
either
budgetarywise
or
statutory
authority
such
that
a
commissioner
could
just
do
that
whatever
it
is
that
ideal
state
or
would
it
need
either
some
sort
of
budgetary
allocation
or
an
act
of
Congress
to
get
to
the
point
where
it's
you
know
getting
to
the
level
that
we
are
happy
with
again
BLS现代化所需的预算与创新
Bill Beach: 它有权进行改革,但没有预算。这并不是说BLS只需要更多的钱。事实上,我认为国会如果更关注这一点,会说“你们现在把钱花在哪里了?让我们确保低优先级的项目被取消,以便我们能够支持高优先级的项目。”我认为BLS会对此非常满意,但我们确实需要更多的钱。为什么呢?如果你要修改一项官方统计数据,比如失业率,你必须非常谨慎,对吧?你需要进行测试,你需要测试你的新想法,你不能只是随便数数空中的鹅有多少,然后就把它当作失业率。你需要确保它是一个特别好的就业市场指标,并且你需要在实时和实验时间中进行测试,也就是并行运行。这些测试会增加你的失业统计项目成本,因为你实际上同时运行两个系统。
View/Hide Original English
>> it
has
the
authority
to
make
the
changes
it
doesn't
have
the
budget
to
do
so
and
it
isn't
that
BLS
just
needs
more
money
I
matter
of
fact
I
think
Congress
if
it
paid
more
attention
would
say
well
what
are
you
spending
your
money
on
now
and
let's
make
sure
that
the
low
priority
is
cancelled
so
that
we
can
support
the
high
priority
I
think
BLS
would
be
very
happy
with
that
but
we
do
need
more
money
and
why
well
if
you're
going
to
change
an
official
statistic
the
unemployment
rate
let's
just
take
that
you
want
to
be
really
careful
right
you
want
to
run
tests
you
want
to
test
out
your
new
idea
you
don't
want
to
have
a
you
count
the
number
of
geese
in
the
air
and
that's
the
unemployment
rate.
You
want
to
make
sure
that
that
is
a
particularly
good
indicator
of
the
employment
market
and
you
want
to
test
it
in
real
time
as
well
as
experimental
time
in
real
time.
So
run
it
parallel.
Well,
the
these
these
tests
expand
the
costs
of
your
unemployment
statistics
program
because
you're
running
essentially
two
systems
simultaneously.
Bill Beach: 我们认为修改Current Population Survey(CPS: 当前人口调查,美国劳工统计局和人口普查局联合进行的月度调查,用于计算失业率)在两年实验期内将花费大约1500万到2000万美元。这并不算多。该项目本身每年花费约4500万美元。
View/Hide Original English
We
think
that
to
modify
the
current
population
survey,
which
is
the
survey
of
households,
would
cost
around
15
million
to
20
million
in
experimental
costs
over
a
2-year
period.
It's
not
great.
The
program
itself
costs
about
45
million
a
year,
Joe: 但它确实增加了那两年左右的成本。国会可以很容易地做到这一点。我的天哪,国会在我们可能不同意的项目上花费了更多的钱,但他们需要为CPS拨出一点钱。它有这个权力吗?这里有一个非常有趣的故事。在新冠疫情期间,我们取消了所有旅行、所有会议,你知道,我惊讶于有多少百万美元用于旅行、会议和会面。所以,这对我来说成了新冠疫情期间的“沙发钱”(couch money: 指因疫情取消活动而节省下来的资金)。我能够把这些钱花在我认为重要的事情上。所以我做了很多事情,比如我建造了一个新的数据中心,让我们摆脱了一栋104年老建筑的地下室。
View/Hide Original English
>> but
it
does
add
to
the
cost
for
those
two
years
or
so.
Congress
could
could
easily
do
that.
I
mean,
oh
my
gosh,
Congress
is
spending
a
lot
more
money
than
that
on
things
that
we
might
disagree
with,
but
they
need
to
allocate
a
little
bit
of
money
to
CPS
for
that.
Does
it
have
the
authority?
Here's
a
really
interesting
story.
During
COVID,
we
canled
all
travel,
all
conferences,
you
know,
was
and
I
was
surprised
at
how
many
millions
of
dollars
went
into
travel
and
conferences
and
meetings.
So,
this
became
for
me
couch
money
during
the
co
years.
And
I
was
able
to
spend
that
money
um
you
know
on
on
important
things
I
thought.
So
I
did
a
lot
of
things
like
I
built
a
new
data
center
to
get
us
out
of
the
basement
of
a
104
year
old
building
Bill Beach: 并搬到一个很棒的地上本地位置,但我也启动了一些研究项目,并对CPI(Consumer Price Index: 消费者物价指数,衡量消费者购买商品和服务价格变化的指标)进行了31项重大修改。我们开始了一种全新的方法来审视消费者支出,我还资助了一些关于就业报告的实验。然而,一旦新冠疫情结束,我们就开始收到国会授权的项目,这些项目吸走了所有的“沙发钱”。如果我们能有一点额外的资金,我的意思是BLS,能有一点额外的资金来做这些事情,想想会发生多少创新。我认为我们将很快摆脱我们从方法论角度面临的问题。这可能也会减少我们周五看到的那种明显的政治压力。
View/Hide Original English
>> and
out
to
a
wonderful
above
ground
local
location
but
I
also
started
a
number
of
research
programs
and
I
made
31
big
modifications
to
the
to
the
CPI.
We
started
a
whole
new
approach
on
on
looking
at
consumer
expenditures
and
I
subsidized
some
experimentation
on
the
jobs
report.
Well,
as
soon
as
CO
was
over,
we
started
to
get
congressionally
mandated
programs
that
then
sucked
up
all
that
couch
money.
If
we
had
a
little
bit
of
extra,
we
I
mean
BLS,
a
little
bit
of
extra
to
do
these
these
things,
just
just
think
of
the
innovation
that
that
would
happen.
I
think
we
would
quickly
be
out
of
the
problems
that
we
are
facing
from
a
methodological
standpoint.
And
that
might
then
reduce
the
political
pressure
that
we
saw
that
was
so
evident
on
Friday.
新任BLS局长任命后的信任挑战
Joe: 所以,我们正在8月4日上午9点25分33秒录制这期节目。我觉得现在新闻流太快,我需要如此具体。所以,谁知道从现在到这期节目真正播出之间会发生什么,但我们预计政府将在未来几天宣布新的BLS负责人。现在会发生什么?你知道,如果总统明确表示他认为前任局长在某种程度上受到政治动机驱使之后,又任命了一位特朗普的统计局局长,人们还会相信这些数据吗?你认为这在BLS内部,在一个以发现真实数字和统计数据来描绘美国经济为宗旨的组织中,将如何发挥作用?
View/Hide Original English
>> So,
we
are
recording
this
August
4th,
9:25
a.m.
in
the
morning
and
33
seconds.
I
feel
like
I
need
to
be
that
specific
nowadays
with
the
news
flow.
Uh,
so
who
knows
what
happens
between
now
and
when
this
episode
actually
comes
out,
but
we
are
expecting
the
administration
to
announce
a
new
BLS
head
in
the
coming
days.
What
happens
now?
You
know,
if
there's
a
Trump
appointee
for
a
new
statistics
commissioner
after
the
president
has
specifically
stated
that
he
thinks
the
previous
commissioner
was
politically
motivated
in
some
way,
are
people
still
going
to
believe
the
numbers
that
are
coming
out?
And
how
do
you
think
that's
actually
going
to
play
internally
at
the
BLS
at
an
organization
whose
whole,
you
know,
raise
on
Dutch
is
to
find,
you
know,
factual
numbers
and
statistics
to
portray
the
American
economy?
Bill Beach: 嗯,我认为已经造成了损害,需要时间才能从中恢复。上一次BLS受到严重的政治干预是在尼克松政府时期,BLS花了一些时间才从中恢复,尽管当时总统对BLS采取的行动我认为不如这次严重。所以你可以想象,总统决定任命圣彼得作为新的BLS局长,当然圣彼得以诚实和思想清晰而闻名。然而,情况仍然会是这样,因为圣彼得无法控制数据的收集方式,数据的整理方式,或者所做的估计。所有这些都在局长不知情的情况下完成。局长对此没有控制权。事实上,你被排除在整个过程之外。所以,圣彼得会遇到一个月,失业率会令人失望地低,甚至可能是负数。但我认为鉴于刚刚发生的事情,人们会说,嗯,圣彼得可能影响了那个数字,而且情况没有实际那么糟糕。所以,在一段时间内,一些人心中会存在这种怀疑,即公布的估计并不是真实的估计。在我看来不会,因为我知道在那里工作的人,那些专业人士,那些全职员工,那些在那里工作的爱国者,那些极其勤奋地做着绝对客观工作的忠诚的美国人,那些人仍然在岗。但如果你没有我这样的知识水平,或者对BLS内部运作没有合理的知识水平,你就会受到这些谎言和指控的影响,那将是破坏性的。那将减少投资,减少经济活动,那将至少增加对美国经济内部正在发生的事情的不确定性,政策制定者在他们采取的方向上会变得不那么明确,所以会有一段时间我们需要恢复,无论谁被任命。我希望那会是一个短暂的时间,我的猜测是,鉴于BLS的声誉,如果任命了一个真正有声誉的人,那么是的,我认为过渡期不会那么长。
View/Hide Original English
>> Well,
I
think
there
has
been
damage
and
it
will
take
time
to
recover
from
that
damage.
The
last
time
there
was
a
serious
political
effort
on
BLS
was
during
the
Nixon
administration
and
um
it
took
some
time
for
BLS
to
recover
from
that
though
the
action
taken
by
the
president
at
that
time
visav
BLS
was
not
I
think
as
as
significant
as
this
one.
So
you
just
imagine
that
the
president
decides
to
no
appointment
St.
Peter
you
know
as
the
new
BLS
commissioner
and
of
course
St.
Peter
has
a
reputation
for
honesty
and
for
clarity
of
thought.
Still,
it'll
be
the
case
because
St.
Peter
won't
have
any
control
over
the
way
that
the
data
are
collected
or
the
data
are
assembled
or
the
estimates
that
are
done.
That's
all
done
outside
of
the
of
the
knowledge
of
the
commissioner.
Commissioner
has
no
control
over
that.
In
fact,
you're
locked
out
of
that
whole
process.
So,
it
will
be
the
case
that
St.
Peter
will
have
a
month
come
when
the
unemployment
rate
will
be
disappointingly
low,
could
even
be
negative.
But
I
think
given
what
has
just
happened,
people
will
say,
well,
St.
Peter
probably
influenced
that
number
and
it
s
not
as
bad
as
it
really
is.
So
for
a
while,
that
suspicion
that
the
estimate
that's
announced
is
really
not
the
real
estimate
will
be
in
the
minds
of
some
people.
Not
in
my
mind
because
I
know
that
these
people
who
work
there,
the
professionals,
the
full-time
staff,
the
patriots
that
that
work
there,
the
the
the
loyal
Americans
who
are
just
extremely
diligent
in
doing
an
absolutely
objective
job,
those
people
are
still
in
place.
But
if
you
don't
have
my
level
of
knowledge
or
a
reasonable
level
of
knowledge
of
how
internally
BLS
works,
you're
going
to
be
subject
to
these
falsehoods
and
accusations
and
that
will
be
damaging.
that
will
reduce
investment
that
will
reduce
economic
activity
that
will
make
at
at
least
that
will
create
greater
uncertainty
about
what's
happening
inside
the
US
economy
policy
makers
will
be
less
less
clear
in
the
direction
that
they
take
so
that
there
will
be
a
time
when
we
need
to
recover
no matter
who's
appointed
I
hope
that
it
will
be
a
short-lived
time
and
my
guess
is
given
the
reputation
of
BLS
if
someone
you
know
really
reputable
is
appointed
then
yeah
I
don't
I
think
the
period
of
transition
will
be
that
long.
播客总结与矛盾分析
Joe: 好的。Bill Beach,非常感谢你再次来到节目。非常感谢你的参与。
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>> All
right.
Well,
Bill
Beach,
really
appreciate
you
coming
back
on
the
show.
Uh,
thank
you
so
much
for
for
being
on.
Tracy: 谢谢你,Bill。太棒了。
View/Hide Original English
>> Thanks,
Bill.
That
was
great.
Bill Beach: 哦,非常感谢你们邀请我。
View/Hide Original English
>> Oh,
thank
you
very
much
for
asking
me.
[音乐]
View/Hide Original English
[Music]
Joe: Joe,很高兴能请Bill回来谈论这个话题。他真是最合适的嘉宾。整个对话中充满了许多讽刺。其中最大的讽刺当然是这个想法:如果特朗普想让所有人相信美国经济表现出色,就业增长强劲,那么解雇统计局局长,并让所有人不信任后续数据,因为后续的负责人可能是一个忠于特朗普的政治任命者,这似乎是在搬起石头砸自己的脚。
View/Hide Original English
>> Joe,
so
good
to
get
Bill
back
on
to
talk
about
this.
Really
the
perfect
guest.
There
are
so
many
I
guess
ironies
involved
in
this
whole
conversation.
The
big
one
of
course
is
this
idea
that
like
well
if
Trump
wants
to
convince
everyone
that
the
US
economy
is
doing
fantastic
and
job
growth
is
great
then
firing
the
head
of
statistics
and
having
everyone
distrust
you
know
the
subsequent
numbers
because
the
subsequent
head
might
be
a
political
appointee
who's
you
know
a
loyalist
to
Trump.
It
seems
like
you're
sort
of
shooting
yourself
in
the
foot.
Joe: 另一个巨大的矛盾是他说鲍威尔(Jerome Powell,美联储主席)太迟了。对吧?这是另一个巨大的矛盾,他每天都在抨击鲍威尔。他说:“哦,你太迟了。你需要降息。”
View/Hide Original English
The
other
huge
contradiction
is
that
he
says
Powell
is
too
late.
Right?
This
is
the
other
huge
contradiction
which
is
every
day
he
slams
Powell.
He's
like,
"Oh,
you're
too
late.
You
need
to
cut
rates."
Tracy: 嗯,如果就业数据疲软,那么我可以在某种程度上理解这个论点。哦,就业。但他也在质疑负面的就业数据。那么,鲍威尔怎么会太迟呢?我的意思是,这是对美联储和BLS的两项批评中不可调和的矛盾。
View/Hide Original English
>> Well,
if
the
job
numbers
were
weak,
then
I
could
understand
this
argument
to
some
extent.
Oh,
the
job.
But
he's
also
casting
aspersions
on
the
negative
jobs
numbers.
So,
how
is
Powell
too
late?
There's
I
mean,
this
is
it's
an
irretrievable
contradiction
in
the
two
criticisms,
both
of
the
Fed
and
the
BLS.
Joe: 这绝对是一个矛盾。然而,我认为特朗普不一定会将失业率和利率之间直接联系起来。你知道,他似乎只是喜欢低利率。
View/Hide Original English
It's
definitely
a
contradiction.
I
don't
think
however
that
Trump
necessarily
draws
a
direct
connection
between
the
unemployment
rate
and
uh
interest
rates
as
well.
You
know,
he
seems
to
just
like
low
interest
rates
Tracy: 他似乎认为低利率基本上是对经济改善的奖励。但是,是的,
View/Hide Original English
>> and
he
seems
to
perceive
that
low
interest
rates
are
basically
a
reward
for
an
improving
economy.
But
yes,
Joe: 但我的意思是还有很多其他矛盾。你完全正确。所以另一个是这个想法,好吧,很多疲软是通过修订方面体现出来的。修订主要来自回复较晚的小企业。如果你想想特朗普政府,你知道,他们总是将自己描绘成一个对小企业友好的商业环境,但可能这正是出现一些疲软的领域。我认为你关于内部士气的问题,正如Bill所说,一个由爱国者组成的机构,我的意思是,我只是,你知道,BLS是否会继续成为爱国者们向往的地方?或者未来是否会认真对待他们的工作,这是一个非常有趣的问题。另外,这个想法,也许我们可以用大约2000万美元获得高质量的数据,考虑到它的价值,如果真的只需要这么多钱,那简直让人抓狂。但我也非常喜欢这个想法,那就是它必须始终与当前的做法并行进行,这样新数据才能与旧数据“可证明地向后兼容”,对吧?所以,如果你要采用一种新方法,你需要一些拨款来同时进行两项调查等等。无论如何,即使在非常简短的对话中,也从Bill那里学到了很多。
View/Hide Original English
>> but
I
mean
lots
of
other
contradictions.
You're
absolutely
right.
So
another
one
is
this
idea
that
okay,
a
lot
of
the
weakness
came
through
on
the
revision
side.
the
revisions
are
mostly
coming
from
small
businesses
who
reply
late.
And
if
you
think
about
the
Trump
administration,
you
know,
they
always
sort
of
portray
themselves
as
a
a
good
business
environment
for
smaller
businesses
and
it
might
be
that
that's
an
area
that's
seeing
some
weakness.
I
thought
your
question
about
sort
of
internal
morale
and
as
Bill
said,
you
know,
an
agency
staffed
with
patriots,
I
mean,
I
just,
you
know,
is
BLS
going
to
be
continue
to
be
a
destination
for
people
who
are
patriots,
right?
Or
take
their
jobs
seriously
in
the
future
is
a
really
interesting
question.
Also,
the
idea
that
like
maybe
we
could
like
get
high
data
quality
for
like
$20
million,
given
how
much
that's
worth,
it's
just
like
drives
you
crazy
if
that's
really
all
it
took.
But
also
I
really
like
this
idea
that
it
would
have
to
always
be
done
in
parallel
with
the
current
thing
such
that
the
new
data
is
sort
of
provably
backwards
compatible
with
the
old
data
right
so
if
you're
going
to
adopt
a
new
methodology
you
need
some
allocation
to
run
two
surveys
at
once
etc
anyway
even
in
a
very
short
conversation
learned
a
lot
from
Bill
Tracy: 绝对。我确实认为值得指出的是,世界上还有其他统计机构正在试验新的数据源技术,特别是英国的统计机构,他们将开始使用价格扫描数据来计算CPI。
View/Hide Original English
>> absolutely
I
do
think
it's
worth
pointing
out
that
there
are
other
statistical
agencies
in
the
world
that
are
experimenting
with
new
technology
for
data
sources
the
UK's
statistics
agency
in
particular
they're
going
start
using,
you
know,
price
scanning
data
for
CPI.
Joe: 等等,你听说过他们把ONS(Office for National Statistics: 英国国家统计局)搬到威尔士,但没人想去那里的事吗?你听说过这个吗?
View/Hide Original English
>> Wait,
have
you
heard
about
the
whole
thing
though
with
how
they
moved
the
O
andS
to
Wales
and
no
one
wanted
to
go
out
there
and
have
you
heard
about
this?
Tracy: 我知道威尔士,他们把政府的大部分机构分散到全国各地,每个人都喜欢这个想法。不要让所有机构都集中在伦敦。他们说:“好吧,我们要让所有人都搬到威尔士,现在ONS更难雇到人了。”无论如何,这只是一个小小的有趣故事。也许我们会在某个时候报道它。
View/Hide Original English
>> I
have
Wales
that
distribute
the
the
large
of
the
government
across
everyone
loves
that
idea.
Let's
not
have
it
all
be
concentrated
in
London.
They're
like,
"Okay,
we're
going
to
make
everyone
move
to
Wales
and
now
it's
a
lot
harder
for
the
ONS
to
hire
anyone."
Anyway,
it's
just
a
little
interesting
story
out.
Maybe
we'll
cover
it
at
some
point.
Joe: 为什么人们不想搬到威尔士。
View/Hide Original English
>> Why
people
don't
want
to
move
to
Wales.
Tracy: 不,我只是觉得这很有趣,对吧?就像我直觉上喜欢这个想法,为什么联邦层面的所有政府公共部门支出都要集中在英国最富裕的城市,或者为什么都要集中在华盛顿特区等等。所以这个想法,无论如何,这是一个独立的事情。实际上,它带来了一些有趣的挑战。
View/Hide Original English
>> No,
I
just
think
it's
interesting,
right?
Like
there's
I
intuitively
I
love
this
idea
of
like
or
why
should
all
of
the
government
spending
on
public
sector
stuff
at
the
federal
level
be
in
the
richest
city
in
the
UK
or
why
should
it
all
be
in
DC
etc.
And
so
this
idea
of
diff
anyway
it's
a
separate
thing.
It's
actually
some
interesting
challenges
arise
from
it.
Joe: 好的。我们就到这里吧?
View/Hide Original English
>> Okay.
Shall
we
leave
it
there?
Tracy: 是的,就到这里吧。
View/Hide Original English
>> Yeah,
let's
leave
it
there.
Joe: 这是《Odd Lots》播客的又一期节目。我是Tracy Alloway。你可以在@TracyAloway关注我。
View/Hide Original English
>> This
has
been
another
episode
of
the
Odd
Thoughts
podcast.
I'm
Tracy
Aloway.
You
can
follow
me
at
Tracy
Aloway
Tracy: 我是Joe Weisenthal。你可以在@thestalwart关注我。关注我们的嘉宾William Beach,他的账号是@beachw453。关注我们的制作人Carmen Rodriguez,她的账号是@CarmenArman;Dashhelbennet,他的账号是@Dashbot;以及Kale Brooks,他的账号是@KalebBrooks。要获取更多《Odd Lots》内容,请访问bloomberg.com/odlots,那里有我们的每日时事通讯和所有节目。你可以在我们的Discord群组discord.gg/odlotss中24小时7天讨论所有这些话题。如果你喜欢《Odd Lots》,如果你喜欢我们谈论美国经济统计数据收集的未来,那么请在你最喜欢的平台上给我们一个好评。
View/Hide Original English
>> and
I'm
Joe
Wisenthal.
You
can
follow
me
at
the
stalwart.
Follow
our
guest
William
Beach.
He's
at
beachw453.
Follow
our
producers
Carmen
Rodriguez
at
Carmen
Arman
Dashelbennet
at
Dashbot
and
Kale
Brooks
at
Kaleb
Brooks.
For
more
OddLots
content,
go
to
bloomberg.com/odlots
where
we
have
a
daily
newsletter
and
all
of
our
episodes.
And
you
can
chat
about
all
of
these
topics
247
in
our
Discord,
discord.gg/odlotss.
And
if
you
enjoy
OddLots,
if
you
like
it
when
we
talk
about
the
future
of
economic
statistic
collection
in
the
US,
then
please
leave
us
a
positive
review
on
your
favorite
Tracy: 或者英国。请在你最喜欢的播客平台给我们一个好评。请记住,如果你是彭博社的订阅者,你可以完全免费收听我们所有的节目。你只需要在Apple Podcast上找到彭博社频道并按照那里的说明操作即可。感谢收听。
View/Hide Original English
>> or
the
UK.
And
please
leave
us
a
positive
review
on
your
favorite
podcast
platform.
And
remember,
if
you
are
a
Bloomberg
subscriber,
you
can
listen
to
all
of
our
episodes
absolutely
adree.
All
you
need
to
do
is
find
the
Bloomberg
channel
on
Apple
Podcast
and
follow
the
instructions
there.
Thanks
for
listening.
[音乐]
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[Music]
是的。
View/Hide Original English
Yeah.
[音乐]
View/Hide Original English
[Music]
是的。
View/Hide Original English
Yeah.
[音乐]
View/Hide Original English
[Music]
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal, Donald Trump, Jerome Powell, Richard Nixon
公司/组织: Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Congress
产品/模型: CPI