Host: Last year was the second worst wildfire season in Canadian history. More than 6000 wildfires, over 8 million hectares burned. And here in Ontario, we faced our largest ever fire. It was called Red Lake 12, which burned almost 200,000 hectares. Put that in perspective slightly less than the size of Tokyo in 2023. Fires tore through 15 million hectares, an area larger than England. Those red dots you see on the map there were the active fires, and even in years that don't break those overall records, wildfires torched vast expanses of land, forced evacuations, gut communities and cause death. In 2021, most of Lytton, B.C. was destroyed and two residents died. In 2024, 25,000 people were evacuated from Jasper, Alberta, and one firefighter was killed. And as climate change worsens, experts say our fire season will only get longer, more intense and harder to predict. So what does that mean for this year? How bad could 2026 get and are we actually ready? And fires obviously aren't the only kind of extreme weather event. We also look at how climate change is affecting storms and what the forecast holds for extreme weather events. This is The Rundown. It's fire season again, and lately we're breaking records, the kind you don't want to break. So what's the outlook for this year and are we prepared? Mike Flanagan is a professor of wildland fire at Thompson Rivers University in Kamloops, B.C. Great to have you on the line, Mike. How are you doing?

Mike Flanagan: Great to be with you. I'm doing great.

Host: All right. Let's take a look at Canada's recent wildfire history. This chart is from the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. Shows the total annual area burned in Canada from about 2010. We can see things are fairly stable. Then a sudden drop in 2020 and a huge spike there just on the right hand of the screen in 2023 and again in 2025. There seems to be extreme spikes both up and down in recent years. So Mike, one has to ask, what does 2026 have in store for us in this country when it comes to wildfires?

Mike Flanagan: Well, first, a big disclaimer. It's April, so you know what's going to happen. This fire season depends on the day to day weather during the fire season and the number of ignitions we see. And by weather I mean hot, dry, windy weather. We get those and ignitions. It could be a busy summer. Having said that, though, there are indicators that suggest what may happen. One is drought. Much of Canada is abnormally dry or in drought, and that sets the stage for an active fire season. Also, the summer forecast is for many parts of Canada, especially the West, to be a hot summer and and in places dry. So that also is a strong indicator of active fire season. And you know, the warmer we get, the more fire we see. And people say, why is that? Well, the one we get, the longer the fire season, the warmer we get, the more lightning we expect. The longer the warmer we get it. It gets better drying out the fuels, the dead fuels on the forest floor, needles, twigs, leaves. So it's easier for a fire to start, whether it's from a lightning strike or from human activities. And more of that stuff's available to burn, which leads to higher intensity fires that are difficult to impossible to extinguish.

Host: You had mentioned drought. Are there particular areas right now in the province that you're kind of keeping an eye on in terms of areas of concern? I know, again, as you said, quite early, but areas, particularly in the east or in the West, as you mentioned.

Mike Flanagan: So within Canada, you know, it's mostly the West, but within Ontario around the elbow. You know, that part in Ontario and Manitoba, where bands like an elbow, that area, you know, northwestern Ontario, that's the prime territory for Ontario for this 2026 fire season.

Host: From what I gather, forecasting for wildfire is notoriously difficult, but it is something that you do quite well. And I am curious, are we getting better at forecasting wildfires as the technology gotten better? And more importantly, is what we're going to forecast this year in 2026, is this going to be a big indicator as to what sort of the new realities are for Canadians?

Mike Flanagan: Yeah. So first, you know, we've had three really active fire seasons. About 8% of our forest has burned in the last three years. So we've never seen three years like this. I always used to say, oh, you know, some years will be cooler and wetter and we'll get a break. And, you know, I still believe that regionally for like Ontario or Quebec, that's the case. But nationally, we're a big country. So somewhere it's going to be hot and dry and we get ignitions and we're going to have an active fire season. So to me, 2026 is a litmus test. If it's another bad fire season, then I expect the new reality is that most years are going to be a bad fire season. And you know, for folks in Toronto, your place, you know, isn't going to burn down from world on Fire. However, the quality of your life can be in the tank for weeks because of smoke. Smoke from a fire 1000km away can make your life miserable. And you know, that's what we're living with now in terms of forecasting, yes, we are getting better, especially, you know, forecasting extreme fire weather. And, you know, stepping back just for a second, there's a recipe for wildfire and it's universal. It applies to Ontario. It applies to the Amazon. And it has three ingredients. First is fuel vegetation. How much, how dry, what type. Second, ignition people and lightning. And in Canada and in Ontario, it's about 50 over 50. And third hot, dry, windy weather. So if we can forecast the hot dry, windy weather, ignitions are a little more tricky. But there are models out there and we know where the fuel is. That's pretty static, how dry it is that that does change day to day.

Host: Mike, to what extent is climate change responsible for these recent record breaking wildfires that we've been seeing?

Mike Flanagan: So in Canada right now, our ten year average annual burn is about 4 million hectares. And that probably doesn't mean much to your audience. It's about twice the size of Lake Ontario. It's a huge territory. In the 70s, you know, you showed data for the last 15, 16 years. Our records go back to the 1950s, and in the 1970s it was about 1 million hectares. So it's almost a quadrupling of area burned in Canada. And I attribute this largely not solely to human caused climate change. I can't be any clearer than that. Western United States has also seen a quadrupling of area burn. And it's because we're getting warmer and people say, well, why is temperature so important here? I'm not talking about an individual fire like the Fort McMurray fire. I'm talking about fire over a large area like Ontario and over a longer period of time. And it's because our fire season is getting longer, not every year, but on average, our fire season is getting longer because we're warmer. We're expecting more lightning as it gets warmer. 50% of the fires are started by lightning, but they're responsible for 90% of the area burned in. The last reason is as the temperature warms, it's very effective at drying out fuels, which means it's easier for fires to start and spread.

Host: I want to get a better understanding of our firefighting abilities in this province. Are we keeping pace with the scale and intensity of these fires? As you mentioned, fire season is getting longer. There is a lot of, you know, you need a lot of manpower on the ground to deal with these as well if they're extending for days. So help me understand, do we have the ability here in the province to deal with it?

Mike Flanagan: So first of all, Canadian fire management agencies are among the best in the world and Ontario's among the best in Canada. They are professional, well trained. Do we have enough resources? Probably not for the fires we've been seeing the last few years. There's something called the national preparedness level, and there's five levels, and level five means we have no resources in Canada. We've been in NPL National Preparedness Level five for the last three years. 2 or 3 days have been at that level five, which means no resources. And we have to go with the States or South Africa or Europe or Australia to bring them in. But, you know, I will say that the approach that Ontario uses, and I'll call it appropriate response, is the way to go to deal with fire in this age. And what that means is they make an assessment on every fire that occurs. So a fire starts two kilometres from Timmins that's unwanted fire, and we go put it out. If a fire starts 100km north of Timmins, they look at, you know, where will it spread in the next week or two? Will it impact infrastructure communities? And they actually look at whether it would be beneficial. They're the only fire management agency that considers the benefits of wildfire. And yes, there are benefits, things like spruce budworm in the East Mountain, pine beetle in the west fires a great agent knocking down these pests and diseases. And it's just Mother Nature doing her work. So fire management should allow Mother Nature when and where possible to do her thing. And you know, these this decision has to be made rapidly within five minutes because when a fire starts and it's an unwanted fire, the sooner you get to it, the better. And that's why, you know, reporting a fire right away. 310 fire 911 is, you know, if you see a fire report right away, especially this time of year, it's spring because you have a lot of dead organic material from last season. And most of the fires started this time of year are by people.

Host: With that being said, I am curious what should Canada be doing more, whether it's at the federal level or the provincial level, to better prepare for what is to come? As I understand, you know, the Canadian government doesn't have sort of the equivalent in the US as FEMA, the the Federal Emergency Management Agency, something that, you know, all in one can kind of deal with the with the concerns here. But what can the other levels of government be doing?

Mike Flanagan: So, you know, I just mentioned we're short on resources. So there's different ways you could give money to the provinces. You could buy water bombers. And actually they're contracting water bombers out this year. Correct. It is an active fire season. But I think having a Federal emergency Management agency is the way to go. We should explore what's being done around the world and apply that to the Canadian context so that we can deal with floods, hurricanes, fires, you know, like hurricanes, for example. There's a hurricane centre and we should be doing that for fire. And actually, I'm going to start a weekly fire weather outlook for the country and post it online. So we can kind of keep an eye on what's coming because we can tell most of the time when that extreme fire weather is coming. And that means be prepared. And yeah, as I said, they're more difficult, but we do know where the existing fires are, and we can kind of know where the lightning may occur. And so we can be better prepared and move resources ahead of time to those locations and being more proactive. Emergency management has phases prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Fire management is great at response preparedness. They're pretty good, but we can be a little more proactive. And of course, things like prevention and mitigation for every dollar you spend there, it usually saves you five, ten, $15 down the road in disaster costs.

Host: I want to get some thoughts and ideas for our viewers who are watching here in Ontario and those in Canada. We have some vast areas of rural communities and towns in this province. We also have urban centres. So for those who are watching, what's one thing that they should understand about wildfire risk this summer and how they can be better prepared?

Mike Flanagan: So observe fire bans. If you're in a higher risk location, if you're in, you know, a community surrounded by forests, especially if it's a conifer forest, which supports what we call a crown, fire spreads from the forest floor to the tops or crowns of the tree. Those are the high intensity fires that are the problem. Have a go bag ready. And you know if if you see a fire report right away. 310 fire 911 and have escape routes planned, especially if your community with only one road in or out, that that can be a real issue. Or if you're a fly in community, I mean, fire disproportionately affects indigenous communities in northern remote communities where you don't have escape routes like a road or two. So, you know, just keep an eye on the, you know, the province will have fire weather forecasts and alert the public when things are high, high danger. And they actually do have agreements with industry to either slow down or shut down during periods of high fire danger. So just stay tuned. And if you see smoke, you know, report it right away and be prepared to leave if it's close by.

Host: What should people know about the Fire Smart Canada program?

Mike Flanagan: So Fire Smart has seven principles. And you know, what we need to do is be Fire Smart communities in high risk locations. And the thing is, it really needs to be mandatory because, you know, things like flammable building materials, flammable material right adjacent to your home, especially that 0 to 1.5 metre zone. It should be free of flammable material. A fire typically enters a community through a rain of embers, little burning bits of twig bark, sometimes pine cones. And that's how the fire spreads into a community. But the problem is, if you're close to your neighbour and they're not Fire Smart, those embers will catch their house on fire, and then it will spread structure to structure. So even if you do everything right, you can be toasted because it's not done across the board. And I'll give you an example, Jasper. Unfortunately, a third of the town burned down in 2020 for the new builds are making to the Fire Smart principles. Mandatory building materials cannot be flammable. And that zone 0 to 1.5 metres has to be free of flammable material. So we're on the path and Ontario supports Fire Smart. I believe they're increasing funding for it, but we really have to look at making it using regulations because if you make it voluntary, it won't happen.

Host: Mike, we are going to end things there. Thank you so much for breaking this all down for us today.

Mike Flanagan: My pleasure.

Host: In 2022. A Derecho a strong and fast moving line of wind and thunder storms tore across Ontario and Quebec. It knocked out power to nearly a million households and killed 11 people. It also caused around $1 billion in insured damage. Is climate change making historic storms like this more common? Greg Kopp is director of the Canadian Severe Storms Laboratory and an engineering professor at Western University. And Anabela Bonato is the managing director of climate science at the University of Waterloo's Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation. Anabela, great to see you again.

Anabela Bonato: Yes, thank you for having me, Greg.

Host: Great to have you on the line.

Anabela Bonato: Nice to be here. Thank you.

Host: All right, Anabela, we're going to start with you. Ontario has seen some frightening storms in recent years. Even on my drive into work this morning, a bit of a storm. I was like, oh, what's happening? Are we actually seeing severe storms and rainfall or is this a perception.

Anabela Bonato: We're having more storms? Definitely. And climate change is one of the main drivers. So we know that with climate change, our average temperatures are rising and for every degree that it rises, the atmosphere can hold more moisture. It can hold up to 8% more moisture. So that moisture is really coming down in a shorter amount of time. A lot of water comes down when a storm comes through. So we're seeing a bit more storms occur, but also just more water falling on the ground. And we had a warning today. There was a flood warning issued for some areas around southern Ontario and a little bit of northern Ontario, just because our grounds are quite full of water right now. Some areas still have snow, so all that rain that's coming down can can lead to some flooding.

Host: All right, Greg, on the more extreme side of weather, let's talk about winds because this is what you do. You know, tornadoes down sort of down bursts. But also in our lexicon as we're learning more things like Derecho, it just seems like, you know, as we, as we kind of go through time, we're learning more and more about these strong storms. What does the data actually show?

Greg Kopp: Well, these are some of the most extreme storms nature has to offer. The data is showing across North America, Canada and the US that there's not many more tornadoes. There's probably about the same number of tornadoes, but they're changing where they're happening. And for Canada, they're moving. They're shifting eastwards. So instead of having a peak in southern Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, as it was historically, the peak is now moving into southern Ontario, where we are. And so we're probably experiencing more here in southern Ontario than we had in the past, although overall across the continent there's not more tornadoes. For example.

Host: Is the is the perception or the trend that it will we will see more of this in this province.

Greg Kopp: Yeah, we're expecting this this eastward shift. We haven't been able to attribute it to climate change yet, but it's very evident in the data and the transition of the data over the last 30, 40 years. It is kind of the time frame we look at, and we're seeing that change happening.

Anabela Bonato: The planet continues to warm. As you mentioned, the last three years, we have had the hottest on record. What does that mean for Ontario's severe storms? When we look at the long term forecast?

Anabela Bonato: Well, we know also that 2026 is looking like it's going to be another hottest year on record and potentially now 2027. So as we look forward, even just in the short term, we should expect to see variations in how precipitation occurs. So we may have more intense rainfall in some areas, but drought and other areas, that's that's the tricky thing about water when it comes to climate change, we think it's all going to go up, but we could actually see more drought. So for example, New Brunswick had drought over the last few months. Their winter was quite dry. So we just don't really know how water is going to hit in the shorter term. I can say Ontario is looking at potentially having a few more intense storms, but a bit more drought just because of that hot climate that we're expecting to have over the next couple of years. But with water, it's really hard to know where it's going to go in the long term. And if we're going to have more extreme precipitation or not, likelihood is, yes, more events where a lot of water comes down will probably go up, but we just don't know exactly where.

Host: So we've already had flood warnings in southern Ontario today, you know, flood warning there. With the real test coming in the summer, a lot of people can remember what, you know, July's of, I think it was two years ago where in the city of Toronto and southwest in southwestern Ontario, where we've seen a lot. I am curious about the watersheds in this province. Are there any watersheds that you're concerned about right now that you're looking at, kind of marked on a map for something that we need to be watching?

Anabela Bonato: Not particularly like that, but certain cities are always higher risk. So 80% of Canadian cities are built on floodplains. So floodplains are where rivers are meant to grow. And what we love about Canada is we say, let's go for a drive to a small city. And usually that small city will have a river running through it. So we've put ourselves at risk. So that means generally, if we're close to a lake like Lake Ontario, all those cities in that area, or if you're close to a river or even where I am from Guelph, we have a river. You are at higher risk of flooding. So we're always looking to those areas. But again, if we're looking at a year where we could potentially experience more warming than normal, I'm more a little bit more concerned about the drought issues. So not enough water happening in those areas.

Host: What's the concern there when it comes to droughts?

Anabela Bonato: Drought can lead to a lot of stuff. Yeah. So it's not great. So of course it can lead to more wildfire risk. Luckily we are getting quite a bit of rain right now in southern Ontario. But as the months shift and if we do move into an El Nino, so we've heard that there's a 61% chance that we're going to shift to El Nino. El Nino tends to bring a bit of drought to the area, so that can increase our chances of wildfire. And we had a wildfire in Kawartha, which is quite close to Toronto just a couple of hours away last summer. The likelihood of that happening again is increasing. So it's something to look out for and be aware of.

Host: Okay. And of course, with fires, even if we're, you know, in an urban centre like Toronto, there is smoke and all of that that we have to contend with as well.

Anabela Bonato: Absolutely.

Host: All right. Greg, as a specialist in the field of extreme wind storms and tornadoes, let's talk a little bit about preparedness here in this province. Are you concerned about the lack of preparedness? What do we have in terms of safeguards?

Greg Kopp: Well not much. And so it is concerning one of the peak vulnerabilities in severe storms in in severe wind storms is the roof. Our roofs are really strong for holding the snow up. But when the wind comes, it wants to lift the roof up. And we need to hold hold it down actually. And there's simple things we can do to mitigate that, but we're not doing them yet. And, and so that's where the vulnerability is for people. And it's a life safety threat. If your roof comes off in a tornado that can go down and hit your neighbour's house downwind, and you're also your, your walls are vulnerable to collapse. So that's where where the concerns are for real extreme windstorms.

Host: Where is the safest place to be in a, in a home when a tornado is hitting?

Greg Kopp: Well, the basement. And fortunately in Canada and Ontario, most of our homes have basements. And so that's a really safe place to go in a severe windstorm. If you don't have access to a basement, get away from the windows and get to the the interior of the house if you can.

Host: So for those, of course, we're in the city of Toronto and major cities, lots of towers, lots of condos, apartments. You're talking get into the centre of the building.

Greg Kopp: Yeah. Get away from the glass. Get towards the elevator core glass when it's under pressure, actually can emit small particles as it as it's stressed. And so there's a danger even if your windows don't break. So get away from the windows.

Host: All right, Annabelle, let's get back to flooding. When we see flooding Ontario. Is it we talk about the watershed. Is it rivers overflowing? Is it sewer systems backing up? What happens when both are overwhelmed?

Anabela Bonato: Yeah, it's a combination. And historically we used to see more river flooding occur. So again our cities are built around rivers. So we can see that happen quite a bit. But over the last few years like the last 15, we're seeing a lot more just urban flooding or what's called pluvial flooding. So flooding from a lot of rain coming down. Yep. Pluvial. Okay. Which comes from a word about rain or it's also talked about as overland flooding. So all of those kind of mean the same thing that a lot of rain comes down because we've built cities with a lot of pavement. The rain has nowhere to go. So it goes into our homes. So we're more and more seeing that and seeing our systems being overflown. And so then the water again has nowhere to go, goes into your home. So it's so important that people prepare everywhere. So even if you're not really close to a river, you're still at risk of flooding just because there's pavement around your home.

Host: When we talk about preparing, what are we doing?

Anabela Bonato: Yeah, there's so much to do. So at the municipal level, ideally, you know, we want to preserve our watersheds. So there's a lot of conversation around what's the importance of watershed. What do they do for us? They slow down water. So that peak time when the water is coming down, it can slow it down, clean it and release it slowly. So ideally we keep those around. But also, if you already have your home, there's already a lot of pavement around you. You can install a sump pump or check if you have a sump pump. Make sure you have a backup battery. So electricity tends to go out with these extreme storms. You want to make sure that's still working. And for simpler things, cleaning out your eavesdrops, making sure that water can flow freely away from your home by also extending your downspouts. So lots of stuff that can be done.

Host: Okay, Greg, in terms of this province, when we talk about tornadoes, the first thing I think about is actually the US. And I think about Tornado Alley where, you know, they have the highest incidence of tornadoes. Do we have a sense you had said that things are shifting here in this province? Do we have a sense of where in Ontario is the most vulnerable? I think a lot of people in Newmarket, in Aurora and Uxbridge have, you know, strong memories of what happened only a few years ago. Do they need to be concerned or what direction are these storms heading?

Greg Kopp: Yeah, well, they're in southwest Ontario. Actually, the peak that we've analysed is right here in London where I am. We haven't had a big one in southwestern Ontario in a number of years. But statistically, that's where where the most are. And but all of the southern part of the province is, is really vulnerable to it. Since we started the Northern Tornadoes project, we've been seeing over 60 tornadoes a year in in Ontario, southern Ontario, and Quebec, which is quite a lot more than one one really thinks about with tornadoes. So that vulnerability is growing and it's also growing because as our population grows and we spread out over the land, we're covering more of the space. So so we just have more vulnerability from those two things. The changing pattern and population growth.

Host: With that being said, Greg, if there was one thing you could do, wave your magic wand, let's say that would better prepare Ontario not just on an individual level, but from a provincial lens to to deal with severe storms and extreme weather. What would it be?

Greg Kopp: I would change the building code. I would change the way, the way we build our houses just to make them safer. It actually is really cost effective in new construction. It's a few hundred dollars to $1,000 to make it resilient to tornadoes. And, and we hold the structure in place with that. And so we think that's a really good investment for, for, for Ontario. And so we'd recommend changes to the building code.

Host: All right. Anabela, if you had that magic wand, if there was something that you could do to help prepare Ontario for these storms, whether it's in the short term or the long term, got housing, that's one. Is there something else?

Anabela Bonato: Can I waive it and get two wishes?

Host: Sure. For sure.

Anabela Bonato: Go for it. The first one would be building away from floodplains. So let's no longer build our infrastructure, homes and roads in the areas that are meant to flood. With that being said, also let's invest more in our nature based solutions. So that would be my wish. Number two. So as I mentioned, you know, wetlands are doing the job for us. There's so much cheaper for us to maintain. It's natural. We love to be around them. We can build walks around them so that people can use them as well. And they absorb about 38% of flood waters when they go through urban areas. And we have those wetlands available. So those would be my two things that I would ask for.

Host: All right. I think that's a great point to leave off on Greg. Anabela, really appreciate it. Thank you so much.

Anabela Bonato: Thanks for having me.

Host: Thank you. I'm Jeyan. Thanks for watching The Rundown. What do you want to know more about? Email us at rundown at TVO.org or reach out to me on social media. And as always, let us know what you think. Until then, I will see you tomorrow.