--- author: TVO Today date: '2026-04-15' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tYANTrjQHg speaker: TVO Today tags: - wildfire-season - climate-change-impact - extreme-weather-events - disaster-preparedness - urban-flooding title: 加拿大极端天气：野火与风暴的严峻挑战与应对 summary: 本期节目探讨了加拿大日益严峻的野火和极端风暴威胁。专家分析了气候变化对火灾季节延长的影响，指出干旱、高温是关键因素。同时，讨论了风暴（如德雷乔、龙卷风）的东移趋势及城市洪水的风险。节目强调了联邦应急管理机构的缺失，呼吁加强建筑规范、保护湿地等自然解决方案，并建议公众提高个人防灾意识。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: tech-trends area: tech-engineering project: [] people: [] companies_orgs: [] products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 加拿大野火季节的严峻现实 **主持人**: 去年是加拿大有史以来第二严重的**野火**季节。超过6000起火灾，燃烧了超过800万公顷土地。在安大略省，我们经历了有史以来最大的火灾，被称为Red Lake 12，几乎烧毁了20万公顷土地。为了更直观地理解，这比2023年东京的面积略小。而在全球范围内，火灾吞噬了1500万公顷土地，比英格兰还要大。地图上那些红点代表了活跃的火情，即使在没有打破整体记录的年份，**野火**也烧毁了广阔的土地，迫使人们撤离，摧毁社区，并导致死亡。2021年，BC省Lytton的大部分地区被毁，两名居民丧生。2024年，艾伯塔省Jasper有25,000人被疏散，一名消防员牺牲。随着**气候变化**的加剧，专家表示，我们的火灾季节只会越来越长、越发激烈、越发难以预测。那么，这对今年意味着什么？2026年情况会有多糟？我们真的准备好了吗？火灾当然不是唯一的极端天气事件。我们还会探讨**气候变化**如何影响风暴，以及极端天气事件的预报。这是《The Rundown》。又到**火灾季**了，最近我们一直在打破纪录，而且是那种你不希望打破的纪录。那么今年的前景如何？我们是否做好了准备？Mike Flanagan是Thompson Rivers University位于Kamloops, B.C.的**野火**学教授。很高兴您能加入我们，Mike。您怎么样？
Original English **Host**: Last year was the second worst wildfire season in Canadian history. More than 6000 wildfires, over 8 million hectares burned. And here in Ontario, we faced our largest ever fire. It was called Red Lake 12, which burned almost 200,000 hectares. Put that in perspective slightly less than the size of Tokyo in 2023. Fires tore through 15 million hectares, an area larger than England. Those red dots you see on the map there were the active fires, and even in years that don't break those overall records, wildfires torched vast expanses of land, forced evacuations, gut communities and cause death. In 2021, most of Lytton, B.C. was destroyed and two residents died. In 2024, 25,000 people were evacuated from Jasper, Alberta, and one firefighter was killed. And as climate change worsens, experts say our fire season will only get longer, more intense and harder to predict. So what does that mean for this year? How bad could 2026 get and are we actually ready? And fires obviously aren't the only kind of extreme weather event. We also look at how climate change is affecting storms and what the forecast holds for extreme weather events. This is The Rundown. It's fire season again, and lately we're breaking records, the kind you don't want to break. So what's the outlook for this year and are we prepared? Mike Flanagan is a professor of wildland fire at Thompson Rivers University in Kamloops, B.C. Great to have you on the line, Mike. How are you doing?
**Mike Flanagan**: 很高兴和您通话。我很好。
Original English **Mike Flanagan**: Great to be with you. I'm doing great.
**主持人**: 好的。我们来看看加拿大近期的**野火**历史。这张图表来自加拿大**跨机构森林火灾中心** (Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre)。它显示了从2010年左右开始，加拿大每年的总燃烧面积。我们可以看到，情况相对稳定。然后在2020年出现了一次骤降，在屏幕右侧的2023年和2025年出现了巨大的峰值。近年来，似乎出现了剧烈的上下波动。那么Mike，人们不得不问，2026年对于我们这个国家在**野火**方面会带来什么？
Original English **Host**: All right. Let's take a look at Canada's recent wildfire history. This chart is from the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. Shows the total annual area burned in Canada from about 2010. We can see things are fairly stable. Then a sudden drop in 2020 and a huge spike there just on the right hand of the screen in 2023 and again in 2025. There seems to be extreme spikes both up and down in recent years. So Mike, one has to ask, what does 2026 have in store for us in this country when it comes to wildfires?
**Mike Flanagan**: 嗯，首先，一个重要的免责声明。现在是四月，所以你无法确切知道会发生什么。这个**火灾季**取决于**火灾季**期间的日常天气以及我们看到的**点火**数量。我说的天气是指**炎热、干燥、有风**的天气。如果我们遇到这些情况和**点火**，那么夏天可能会很忙。不过，尽管如此，还是有一些指标可以暗示可能发生的情况。一个是指**干旱**。加拿大大部分地区**异常干燥**或处于**干旱**状态，这为活跃的**火灾季**奠定了基础。此外，夏季的预报是，加拿大许多地区，特别是西部地区，将是**炎热**的夏天，并且在某些地方会很**干燥**。所以这也是活跃**火灾季**的一个有力指标。而且，你知道，我们越热，**火灾**就越多。人们会问，为什么呢？嗯，我们越热，**火灾季**就越长，我们越热，**闪电**就越多。我们越热，它就能更好地**烘干****燃料**——森林地面上的枯枝落叶。这样**火灾**就更容易发生，无论是来自**闪电**还是人为活动。而且可燃的**燃料**也越多，这就会导致**火灾**强度更高，难以扑灭。
Original English **Mike Flanagan**: Well, first, a big disclaimer. It's April, so you know what's going to happen. This fire season depends on the day to day weather during the fire season and the number of ignitions we see. And by weather I mean hot, dry, windy weather. We get those and ignitions. It could be a busy summer. Having said that, though, there are indicators that suggest what may happen. One is drought. Much of Canada is abnormally dry or in drought, and that sets the stage for an active fire season. Also, the summer forecast is for many parts of Canada, especially the West, to be a hot summer and and in places dry. So that also is a strong indicator of active fire season. And you know, the warmer we get, the more fire we see. And people say, why is that? Well, the one we get, the longer the fire season, the warmer we get, the more lightning we expect. The longer the warmer we get it. It gets better drying out the fuels, the dead fuels on the forest floor, needles, twigs, leaves. So it's easier for a fire to start, whether it's from a lightning strike or from human activities. And more of that stuff's available to burn, which leads to higher intensity fires that are difficult to impossible to extinguish.
**主持人**: 您提到了**干旱**。现在省内是否有特别需要关注的区域，是您觉得担忧的地区？我知道，正如您所说，还很早，但您提到过的东部或西部地区。
Original English **Host**: You had mentioned drought. Are there particular areas right now in the province that you're kind of keeping an eye on in terms of areas of concern? I know, again, as you said, quite early, but areas, particularly in the east or in the West, as you mentioned.
**Mike Flanagan**: 在加拿大境内，你知道，主要是西部，但在安大略省，围绕着“弯钩”区域。你知道，安大略省和马尼托巴省的那个部分，像一个弯钩一样的地带，那个区域，你知道，西北安大略省，那里是安大略省2026年**火灾季**的主要区域。
Original English **Mike Flanagan**: So within Canada, you know, it's mostly the West, but within Ontario around the elbow. You know, that part in Ontario and Manitoba, where bands like an elbow, that area, you know, northwestern Ontario, that's the prime territory for Ontario for this 2026 fire season.
**主持人**: 据我所知，**野火**的预测非常困难，但这是您相当擅长的事情。我很好奇，随着技术的发展，我们是否在**野火**预测方面做得越来越好？更重要的是，我们今年（2026年）的预测，将是否预示着加拿大人将迎来新的现实？
Original English **Host**: From what I gather, forecasting for wildfire is notoriously difficult, but it is something that you do quite well. And I am curious, are we getting better at forecasting wildfires as the technology gotten better? And more importantly, is what we're going to forecast this year in 2026, is this going to be a big indicator as to what sort of the new realities are for Canadians?
**Mike Flanagan**: 是的。所以，你知道，我们已经经历了三个非常活跃的**火灾季**。在过去的三年里，我们森林的8%被烧毁了。所以我们从未见过这样连续三年的情况。我以前总是说，哦，你知道，有些年份会更凉爽湿润，我们会得到喘息的机会。而且，你知道，我仍然相信，就安大略省或魁北克省而言，这是区域性的。但从全国范围来看，我们国家很大。所以总会有某个地方会**炎热干燥**，发生**点火**，然后我们就会有一个活跃的**火灾季**。所以对我来说，2026年是一个**试金石**。如果又是糟糕的**火灾季**，那么我认为新的现实将是，大多数年份都会是糟糕的**火灾季**。而且，你知道，对于多伦多的那些人来说，你的地方，你知道，不会被“世界之火”烧毁。然而，你的生活质量可能会在数周内直线下降，因为**烟雾**。来自1000公里外**火灾**的**烟雾**会让你的生活变得痛苦不堪。而且，你知道，这就是我们现在在**预报**方面所要面对的。是的，我们正在变得更好，特别是在**预报**极端**火灾**天气方面。而且，你知道，为了让你能稍微退一步看，**野火**的发生是有规律的，这是普遍适用的。它适用于安大略省，也适用于亚马逊。它有三个要素。第一是**燃料**——植被。有多少，有多**干燥**，是什么类型。第二是**点火**——人类和**闪电**。在加拿大和安大略省，大约是50%对50%（人为和闪电）。第三是**炎热、干燥、有风**的天气。所以，如果我们能够**预测****炎热、干燥、有风**的天气，**点火**就会稍微棘手一些。但有一些模型可以使用，而且我们知道**燃料**在哪里。**燃料**的分布相当固定，**干燥**程度会每天变化。
Original English **Mike Flanagan**: Yeah. So first, you know, we've had three really active fire seasons. About 8% of our forest has burned in the last three years. So we've never seen three years like this. I always used to say, oh, you know, some years will be cooler and wetter and we'll get a break. And, you know, I still believe that regionally for like Ontario or Quebec, that's the case. But nationally, we're a big country. So somewhere it's going to be hot and dry and we get ignitions and we're going to have an active fire season. So to me, 2026 is a litmus test. If it's another bad fire season, then I expect the new reality is that most years are going to be a bad fire season. And you know, for folks in Toronto, your place, you know, isn't going to burn down from world on Fire. However, the quality of your life can be in the tank for weeks because of smoke. Smoke from a fire 1000km away can make your life miserable. And you know, that's what we're living with now in terms of forecasting, yes, we are getting better, especially, you know, forecasting extreme fire weather. And, you know, stepping back just for a second, there's a recipe for wildfire and it's universal. It applies to Ontario. It applies to the Amazon. And it has three ingredients. First is fuel vegetation. How much, how dry, what type. Second, ignition people and lightning. And in Canada and in Ontario, it's about 50 over 50. And third hot, dry, windy weather. So if we can forecast the hot dry, windy weather, ignitions are a little more tricky. But there are models out there and we know where the fuel is. That's pretty static, how dry it is that that does change day to day.
**主持人**: Mike，**气候变化**在多大程度上要为我们近期屡破纪录的**野火**负责？
Original English **Host**: Mike, to what extent is climate change responsible for these recent record breaking wildfires that we've been seeing?
**Mike Flanagan**: 在加拿大，我们过去十年的平均年燃烧面积约为400万公顷。这可能对您的观众来说意义不大。这大约是安大略湖面积的两倍。这是一个巨大的区域。在70年代，你知道，您展示了过去15、16年的数据。我们的记录可以追溯到1950年代，而在1970年代，大约是100万公顷。所以在加拿大，燃烧面积几乎翻了四倍。我将这主要归因于人类造成的**气候变化**，但并非完全如此。我再怎么强调也不为过。美国西部也经历了燃烧面积的四倍增长。这是因为我们变得更热了，人们会问，为什么温度在这里如此重要？我不是在谈论像Fort McMurray火灾这样单个的火灾。我是在谈论像安大略省这样大面积、在更长时期内的**火灾**。这是因为我们的**火灾季**正在变长，不是每年都如此，但平均而言，我们的**火灾季**正在变长，因为我们变得更热。我们预计**闪电**会增多，因为天气变热。50%的**火灾**是由**闪电**引起的，但它们却造成了90%的燃烧面积。最后一个原因是，随着温度升高，它能非常有效地**烘干燃料**，这意味着**火灾**更容易开始和蔓延。
Original English **Mike Flanagan**: So in Canada right now, our ten year average annual burn is about 4 million hectares. And that probably doesn't mean much to your audience. It's about twice the size of Lake Ontario. It's a huge territory. In the 70s, you know, you showed data for the last 15, 16 years. Our records go back to the 1950s, and in the 1970s it was about 1 million hectares. So it's almost a quadrupling of area burned in Canada. And I attribute this largely not solely to human caused climate change. I can't be any clearer than that. Western United States has also seen a quadrupling of area burn. And it's because we're getting warmer and people say, well, why is temperature so important here? I'm not talking about an individual fire like the Fort McMurray fire. I'm talking about fire over a large area like Ontario and over a longer period of time. And it's because our fire season is getting longer, not every year, but on average, our fire season is getting longer because we're warmer. We're expecting more lightning as it gets warmer. 50% of the fires are started by lightning, but they're responsible for 90% of the area burned in. The last reason is as the temperature warms, it's very effective at drying out fuels, which means it's easier for fires to start and spread.
**主持人**: 我想更好地了解我们省的**消防能力**。我们跟得上这些**火灾**的规模和强度吗？正如您所说，**火灾季**越来越长。处理这些**火灾**需要大量人力，而且持续数日。所以请告诉我，我们省有能力应对吗？
Original English **Host**: I want to get a better understanding of our firefighting abilities in this province. Are we keeping pace with the scale and intensity of these fires? As you mentioned, fire season is getting longer. There is a lot of, you know, you need a lot of manpower on the ground to deal with these as well if they're extending for days. So help me understand, do we have the ability here in the province to deal with it?
**Mike Flanagan**: 首先，加拿大的**火灾管理机构**是世界上最好的之一，而安大略省又是加拿大最好的之一。他们是专业的，训练有素的。我们有足够的资源吗？可能不足以应对我们过去几年看到的**火灾**。有一种叫做**国家准备水平** (national preparedness level) 的指标，有五个级别，级别五意味着我们在加拿大没有资源了。过去三年，我们一直处于**国家准备水平**五级。有两三天处于这个五级水平，意味着没有可调动的资源。我们不得不向美国、南非、欧洲或澳大利亚寻求援助。但是，我必须说，安大略省采取的**“适时响应”** (appropriate response) 的方法，在这种时代是应对**火灾**的正确方式。这意味着他们对发生的每一场**火灾**都进行评估。例如，一场**火灾**发生在距离Timmins两公里处，我们将其视为**不受欢迎的火灾**，并会去扑灭。如果一场**火灾**发生在Timmins以北100公里处，他们会评估：接下来一两周它会蔓延到哪里？是否会影响基础设施和社区？他们甚至会评估它是否可能是有益的。他们是唯一一个考虑**野火**益处的**火灾管理机构**。是的，确实有益处，比如东部山区的**云杉****卷叶蛾**、西部的**松甲虫**，**火灾**是清除这些害虫和疾病的绝佳媒介。这只是大自然在发挥作用。所以**火灾管理**应该在可能的情况下，让大自然去做。而且，你知道，这个决定必须在五分钟内迅速做出，因为当**火灾**发生并且是**不受欢迎的火灾**时，越早扑灭越好。所以，为什么，你知道，要立即报告**火灾**。310-FIRE-911（310-3473）就是这样。如果你看到**火灾**，立即报告，尤其是在这个季节，春天，你有去年留下的很多枯死的有机物。而且这个时候开始的大多数**火灾**都是由人为引起的。
Original English **Mike Flanagan**: So first of all, Canadian fire management agencies are among the best in the world and Ontario's among the best in Canada. They are professional, well trained. Do we have enough resources? Probably not for the fires we've been seeing the last few years. There's something called the national preparedness level, and there's five levels, and level five means we have no resources in Canada. We've been in NPL National Preparedness Level five for the last three years. 2 or 3 days have been at that level five, which means no resources. And we have to go with the States or South Africa or Europe or Australia to bring them in. But, you know, I will say that the approach that Ontario uses, and I'll call it appropriate response, is the way to go to deal with fire in this age. And what that means is they make an assessment on every fire that occurs. So a fire starts two kilometres from Timmins that's unwanted fire, and we go put it out. If a fire starts 100km north of Timmins, they look at, you know, where will it spread in the next week or two? Will it impact infrastructure communities? And they actually look at whether it would be beneficial. They're the only fire management agency that considers the benefits of wildfire. And yes, there are benefits, things like spruce budworm in the East Mountain, pine beetle in the west fires a great agent knocking down these pests and diseases. And it's just Mother Nature doing her work. So fire management should allow Mother Nature when and where possible to do her thing. And you know, these this decision has to be made rapidly within five minutes because when a fire starts and it's an unwanted fire, the sooner you get to it, the better. And that's why, you know, reporting a fire right away. 310 fire 911 is, you know, if you see a fire report right away, especially this time of year, it's spring because you have a lot of dead organic material from last season. And most of the fires started this time of year are by people.
**主持人**: 考虑到这些情况，我很好奇加拿大应该做些什么，无论是联邦层面还是省级层面，以便更好地为未来做准备？据我所知，加拿大政府没有像美国那样拥有联邦**应急管理**机构 (FEMA)，一个可以一站式处理所有担忧的机构。那么其他各级政府可以做什么呢？
Original English **Host**: With that being said, I am curious what should Canada be doing more, whether it's at the federal level or the provincial level, to better prepare for what is to come? As I understand, you know, the Canadian government doesn't have sort of the equivalent in the US as FEMA, the the Federal Emergency Management Agency, something that, you know, all in one can kind of deal with the with the concerns here. But what can the other levels of government be doing?
**Mike Flanagan**: 嗯，我刚才提到了我们**资源不足**。所以有很多种方式可以给各省提供资金，比如购买**水上轰炸机**。事实上，他们今年正在外包**水上轰炸机**的合同。这是**火灾季**。但我认为拥有一个联邦**应急管理**机构是方向。我们应该研究世界各地的做法，并将其应用于加拿大国情，以便我们能够应对洪水、飓风、**火灾**。比如飓风，有一个**飓风中心**，我们应该也为**火灾**设立这样的机构。事实上，我将开始为全国发布每周的**火灾天气**展望，并将其发布到网上。这样我们就可以密切关注即将发生的事情，因为我们大多数时候都能知道**极端火灾天气**何时到来。这意味着要做好准备。是的，正如我所说，它们更难预测，但我们确实知道**火灾**发生在哪里，我们也能大致知道**闪电**可能在哪里发生。所以我们可以更好地准备，并提前将资源调往那些地区，更加主动。**应急管理**有几个阶段：**预防、减缓、准备、响应和恢复**。**火灾管理**在**响应**和**准备**方面做得很好。他们做得相当好，但我们可以更主动一些。当然，像**预防**和**减缓**这样的事情，你每花一美元在那里，通常就能在后期的灾害成本上节省五、十、十五美元。
Original English **Mike Flanagan**: So, you know, I just mentioned we're short on resources. So there's different ways you could give money to the provinces. You could buy water bombers. And actually they're contracting water bombers out this year. Correct. It is an active fire season. But I think having a Federal emergency Management agency is the way to go. We should explore what's being done around the world and apply that to the Canadian context so that we can deal with floods, hurricanes, fires, you know, like hurricanes, for example. There's a hurricane centre and we should be doing that for fire. And actually, I'm going to start a weekly fire weather outlook for the country and post it online. So we can kind of keep an eye on what's coming because we can tell most of the time when that extreme fire weather is coming. And that means be prepared. And yeah, as I said, they're more difficult, but we do know where the existing fires are, and we can kind of know where the lightning may occur. And so we can be better prepared and move resources ahead of time to those locations and being more proactive. Emergency management has phases prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Fire management is great at response preparedness. They're pretty good, but we can be a little more proactive. And of course, things like prevention and mitigation for every dollar you spend there, it usually saves you five, ten, $15 down the road in disaster costs.
**主持人**: 我想听听给在这里观看的安大略省观众以及加拿大其他地区观众的一些想法和建议。我们省有大片的农村社区和城镇。我们也有城市中心。所以对于那些正在观看的观众，关于这个夏天的**野火**风险，他们应该理解的一件事是什么？以及如何能更好地做好准备？
Original English **Host**: I want to get some thoughts and ideas for our viewers who are watching here in Ontario and those in Canada. We have some vast areas of rural communities and towns in this province. We also have urban centres. So for those who are watching, what's one thing that they should understand about wildfire risk this summer and how they can be better prepared?
**Mike Flanagan**: 遵守**火灾禁令**。如果您在高风险地区，如果您身处一个被森林环绕的社区，特别是**针叶林**，它支持我们称之为**树冠火**（火势从森林地面蔓延到树冠）的类型，那是高强度**火灾**，是问题所在。准备一个**应急包**（go bag）。如果你看到**火灾**，立即报告：310-FIRE-911。计划好**逃生路线**，特别是如果你的社区只有一条进出道路，那会是个大问题。或者如果你是**飞行社区**（fly in community），我的意思是，**火灾**不成比例地影响着北方偏远地区的**原住民社区**，这些社区没有像道路那样的**逃生路线**。所以，请留意省里发布的**火灾天气预报**，并在情况危险时提醒公众。他们实际上与工业界有协议，在**高火灾危险**时段放慢或停止工作。所以请继续关注。如果你看到**烟雾**，立即报告，并做好准备，如果**火灾**离得很近，就撤离。
Original English **Mike Flanagan**: So observe fire bans. If you're in a higher risk location, if you're in, you know, a community surrounded by forests, especially if it's a conifer forest, which supports what we call a crown, fire spreads from the forest floor to the tops or crowns of the tree. Those are the high intensity fires that are the problem. Have a go bag ready. And you know if if you see a fire report right away. 310 fire 911 and have escape routes planned, especially if your community with only one road in or out, that that can be a real issue. Or if you're a fly in community, I mean, fire disproportionately affects indigenous communities in northern remote communities where you don't have escape routes like a road or two. So, you know, just keep an eye on the, you know, the province will have fire weather forecasts and alert the public when things are high, high danger. And they actually do have agreements with industry to either slow down or shut down during periods of high fire danger. So just stay tuned. And if you see smoke, you know, report it right away and be prepared to leave if it's close by.
**主持人**: 人们应该了解**Fire Smart Canada**项目。
Original English **Host**: What should people know about the Fire Smart Canada program?
**Mike Flanagan**: **Fire Smart**有七个原则。你知道，我们需要做的是在高风险地区建立**Fire Smart社区**。关键是，这真的需要是强制性的，因为，你知道，像易燃建筑材料，紧邻你家旁边的易燃材料，特别是0到1.5米的区域。这个区域应该没有易燃材料。**火灾**通常通过**燃烧的余烬**（embers）——小块燃烧的树枝、树皮，有时还有松果——进入社区。这就是**火灾**如何在社区中蔓延。但问题是，如果你离邻居很近，而他们不是**Fire Smart**，那些**余烬**就会点燃他们的房子，然后就会蔓延到结构之间。所以即使你做了所有正确的事情，你可能也会被烧毁，因为这不是普遍采纳的。我举个例子，Jasper。不幸的是，2020年小镇的三分之一被烧毁了。新建筑正在遵循**Fire Smart**原则。**强制性建筑材料**不能是易燃的。而那个0到1.5米的区域必须没有易燃材料。所以我们正在走向这条路，安大略省支持**Fire Smart**。我相信他们正在增加资金，但我们确实需要通过法规来强制执行，因为如果只是**自愿**的，那将无法实现。
Original English **Mike Flanagan**: So Fire Smart has seven principles. And you know, what we need to do is be Fire Smart communities in high risk locations. And the thing is, it really needs to be mandatory because, you know, things like flammable building materials, flammable material right adjacent to your home, especially that 0 to 1.5 metre zone. It should be free of flammable material. A fire typically enters a community through a rain of embers, little burning bits of twig bark, sometimes pine cones. And that's how the fire spreads into a community. But the problem is, if you're close to your neighbour and they're not Fire Smart, those embers will catch their house on fire, and then it will spread structure to structure. So even if you do everything right, you can be toasted because it's not done across the board. And I'll give you an example, Jasper. Unfortunately, a third of the town burned down in 2020 for the new builds are making to the Fire Smart principles. Mandatory building materials cannot be flammable. And that zone 0 to 1.5 metres has to be free of flammable material. So we're on the path and Ontario supports Fire Smart. I believe they're increasing funding for it, but we really have to look at making it using regulations because if you make it voluntary, it won't happen.
**主持人**: Mike，我们就此结束。非常感谢您今天为我们详细解读。
Original English **Host**: Mike, we are going to end things there. Thank you so much for breaking this all down for us today.
**Mike Flanagan**: 是我的荣幸。
Original English **Mike Flanagan**: My pleasure.
### 极端风暴与洪水：气候变化的连锁反应 **主持人**: 2022年，一场**德雷乔**（Derecho）——一场强大而快速移动的**风暴**线——席卷了安大略省和魁北克省。它导致近百万户家庭停电，并造成11人死亡。造成的保险损失也约有10亿美元。**气候变化**是否让像这样的历史性**风暴**变得更加普遍？Greg Kopp是加拿大**极端风暴实验室**的负责人，也是Western University的工程学教授。Anabela Bonato是滑铁卢大学**气候适应中心**（Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation）的气候科学执行董事。Anabela，很高兴再次见到您。
Original English **Host**: In 2022. A Derecho a strong and fast moving line of wind and thunder storms tore across Ontario and Quebec. It knocked out power to nearly a million households and killed 11 people. It also caused around $1 billion in insured damage. Is climate change making historic storms like this more common? Greg Kopp is director of the Canadian Severe Storms Laboratory and an engineering professor at Western University. And Anabela Bonato is the managing director of climate science at the University of Waterloo's Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation. Anabela, great to see you again.
**Anabela Bonato**: 是的，感谢您的邀请，Greg。
Original English **Anabela Bonato**: Yes, thank you for having me, Greg.
**主持人**: 很高兴您能加入。
Original English **Host**: Great to have you on the line.
**Anabela Bonato**: 很高兴来到这里。谢谢。
Original English **Anabela Bonato**: Nice to be here. Thank you.
**主持人**: 好的，Anabela，我们先从您开始。安大略省近年来经历了一些可怕的**风暴**。今天早上我上班路上也遇到了一场小**风暴**。我当时想，哦，这是怎么回事？我们真的在经历严重的**风暴**和**降雨**，还是这只是一种感觉？
Original English **Host**: All right, Anabela, we're going to start with you. Ontario has seen some frightening storms in recent years. Even on my drive into work this morning, a bit of a storm. I was like, oh, what's happening? Are we actually seeing severe storms and rainfall or is this a perception.
**Anabela Bonato**: 我们经历的**风暴**肯定更多了。而**气候变化**是主要驱动因素之一。我们知道，随着**气候变化**，我们的平均气温在上升，每上升一度，大气就能容纳更多的**湿气**。它可以容纳高达8%的**湿气**。所以这些**湿气**会在更短的时间内降下来。当**风暴**来临时，会带来大量的水。因此，我们看到**风暴**发生得更多，而且地面上的降水量也更大。今天我们收到了一个**洪水预警**，安大略省南部和北部部分地区都发布了**洪水预警**，原因是我们这里的地面目前已经相当湿润。有些地区仍有积雪，所以所有这些雨水都可能导致一些**洪水**。
Original English **Anabela Bonato**: We're having more storms? Definitely. And climate change is one of the main drivers. So we know that with climate change, our average temperatures are rising and for every degree that it rises, the atmosphere can hold more moisture. It can hold up to 8% more moisture. So that moisture is really coming down in a shorter amount of time. A lot of water comes down when a storm comes through. So we're seeing a bit more storms occur, but also just more water falling on the ground. And we had a warning today. There was a flood warning issued for some areas around southern Ontario and a little bit of northern Ontario, just because our grounds are quite full of water right now. Some areas still have snow, so all that rain that's coming down can can lead to some flooding.
**主持人**: 好的，Greg，我们来谈谈更极端的**天气**，比如**风**，因为这是您的专业领域。你知道，**龙卷风**，**下击暴流**。在我们的词汇中，我们还学到了像**德雷乔**这样的词。似乎随着时间的推移，我们对这些强**风暴**了解得越来越多。数据实际上显示了什么？
Original English **Host**: All right, Greg, on the more extreme side of weather, let's talk about winds because this is what you do. You know, tornadoes down sort of down bursts. But also in our lexicon as we're learning more things like Derecho, it just seems like, you know, as we, as we kind of go through time, we're learning more and more about these strong storms. What does the data actually show?
**Greg Kopp**: 嗯，这些是自然界中最极端的**风暴**之一。数据显示，在北美洲，加拿大和美国，**龙卷风**的数量并没有显著增加。**龙卷风**的数量可能差不多，但它们发生的位置正在改变。对于加拿大来说，它们正在向东移动。所以，过去**龙卷风**的高峰期在萨斯喀彻温省南部、马尼托巴省南部，而现在这个高峰正在向我们所在的安大略省南部转移。所以，我们安大略省南部可能比过去经历更多的**龙卷风**，尽管在整个大陆范围内**龙卷风**的总数并没有增加。
Original English **Greg Kopp**: Well, these are some of the most extreme storms nature has to offer. The data is showing across North America, Canada and the US that there's not many more tornadoes. There's probably about the same number of tornadoes, but they're changing where they're happening. And for Canada, they're moving. They're shifting eastwards. So instead of having a peak in southern Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, as it was historically, the peak is now moving into southern Ontario, where we are. And so we're probably experiencing more here in southern Ontario than we had in the past, although overall across the continent there's not more tornadoes. For example.
**主持人**: 这种感觉，或者说趋势，是这个省会看到更多这种情况吗？
Original English **Host**: Is the is the perception or the trend that it will we will see more of this in this province.
**Greg Kopp**: 是的，我们预计会发生这种东移。我们还不能将其归因于**气候变化**，但数据中非常明显，并且在过去30到40年的数据变化中也体现出来。这是我们看待数据的时间跨度，我们正看到这种变化正在发生。
Original English **Greg Kopp**: Yeah, we're expecting this this eastward shift. We haven't been able to attribute it to climate change yet, but it's very evident in the data and the transition of the data over the last 30, 40 years. It is kind of the time frame we look at, and we're seeing that change happening.
**Anabela Bonato**: 地球持续变暖。正如您所提到的，过去三年是我们有记录以来最热的三年。这对安大略省的严重**风暴**意味着什么？从长远来看，我们的**天气**预报是什么？
Original English **Anabela Bonato**: The planet continues to warm. As you mentioned, the last three years, we have had the hottest on record. What does that mean for Ontario's severe storms? When we look at the long term forecast?
**Anabela Bonato**: 我们也知道2026年看起来将是又一个有记录以来最热的一年，甚至可能2027年也是。所以，展望未来，即使是短期内，我们也应该预期**降水**方式会出现变化。所以我们可能会在某些地区遇到更强的**降雨**，但在其他地区则会面临**干旱**。这就是**水**在**气候变化**方面的棘手之处，我们认为它都会上升，但我们实际上可能会面临更多**干旱**。例如，新不伦瑞克省在过去几个月里经历了**干旱**。他们的冬天非常**干燥**。所以我们真的不知道短期内**水**会如何分布。我可以肯定地说，安大略省可能会经历更多强烈的**风暴**，但也会面临更多**干旱**，这仅仅是因为我们预计未来几年气温会持续**升高**。但关于**水**，长期来看它会流向哪里，我们很难知道。我们是否会经历更多的极端**降水**，还很难说。但可能性是，是的，**大量**水**涌**的事件可能会增加，但我们不知道具体在哪些地方。
Original English **Anabela Bonato**: Well, we know also that 2026 is looking like it's going to be another hottest year on record and potentially now 2027. So as we look forward, even just in the short term, we should expect to see variations in how precipitation occurs. So we may have more intense rainfall in some areas, but drought and other areas, that's that's the tricky thing about water when it comes to climate change, we think it's all going to go up, but we could actually see more drought. So for example, New Brunswick had drought over the last few months. Their winter was quite dry. So we just don't really know how water is going to hit in the shorter term. I can say Ontario is looking at potentially having a few more intense storms, but a bit more drought just because of that hot climate that we're expecting to have over the next couple of years. But with water, it's really hard to know where it's going to go in the long term. And if we're going to have more extreme precipitation or not, likelihood is, yes, more events where a lot of water comes down will probably go up, but we just don't know exactly where.
**主持人**: 所以我们今天在安大略省南部已经收到了**洪水预警**，你知道，那里的**洪水预警**。真正的考验将在夏天到来，很多人还记得几年前七月份发生的事情，在多伦多市和安大略省西南部，我们看到了很多。我很好奇我们省的**流域**。现在是否有任何**流域**是您担心的？您在地图上标记出来，需要我们关注的？
Original English **Host**: So we've already had flood warnings in southern Ontario today, you know, flood warning there. With the real test coming in the summer, a lot of people can remember what, you know, July's of, I think it was two years ago where in the city of Toronto and southwest in southwestern Ontario, where we've seen a lot. I am curious about the watersheds in this province. Are there any watersheds that you're concerned about right now that you're looking at, kind of marked on a map for something that we need to be watching?
**Anabela Bonato**: 并没有特别指出，但某些城市总是风险较高。80%的加拿大城市建在**洪泛区**。所以**洪泛区**是河流应该自然扩张的地方。我们喜欢加拿大的一点是，我们会说，去某个小城市兜风吧。通常那个小城市都会有一条河穿过。所以我们把自己置于了风险之中。所以一般来说，如果我们靠近像安大略湖这样的湖泊，那个区域的所有城市，或者如果你靠近一条河流，或者我来自**圭尔夫**（Guelph），那里有一条河。你面临**洪水**的风险就更高。所以我们一直在关注那些区域。但同样，如果我们看一年可能经历的**变暖**程度超出正常水平，我更担心**干旱**问题。所以在那些地区**水**可能不足。
Original English **Anabela Bonato**: Not particularly like that, but certain cities are always higher risk. So 80% of Canadian cities are built on floodplains. So floodplains are where rivers are meant to grow. And what we love about Canada is we say, let's go for a drive to a small city. And usually that small city will have a river running through it. So we've put ourselves at risk. So that means generally, if we're close to a lake like Lake Ontario, all those cities in that area, or if you're close to a river or even where I am from Guelph, we have a river. You are at higher risk of flooding. So we're always looking to those areas. But again, if we're looking at a year where we could potentially experience more warming than normal, I'm more a little bit more concerned about the drought issues. So not enough water happening in those areas.
**主持人**: **干旱**带来的担忧是什么？
Original English **Host**: What's the concern there when it comes to droughts?
**Anabela Bonato**: **干旱**会导致很多问题。是的。所以这不太好。它当然会导致更高的**野火**风险。幸运的是，我们安大略省南部现在得到了相当多的雨水。但随着月份的推移，如果我们确实进入了**厄尔尼诺**现象，我们听说有61%的可能性会转向**厄尔尼诺**。**厄尔尼诺**往往会给该地区带来一些**干旱**，所以这会增加我们发生**野火**的几率。去年夏天，我们在**卡瓦塔**（Kawartha）地区发生了一场**野火**，离多伦多只有几个小时的路程。这种情况再次发生的可能性正在增加。所以这是需要注意和警惕的事情。
Original English **Anabela Bonato**: Drought can lead to a lot of stuff. Yeah. So it's not great. So of course it can lead to more wildfire risk. Luckily we are getting quite a bit of rain right now in southern Ontario. But as the months shift and if we do move into an El Nino, so we've heard that there's a 61% chance that we're going to shift to El Nino. El Nino tends to bring a bit of drought to the area, so that can increase our chances of wildfire. And we had a wildfire in Kawartha, which is quite close to Toronto just a couple of hours away last summer. The likelihood of that happening again is increasing. So it's something to look out for and be aware of.
**主持人**: 好的。当然，即使我们身处多伦多这样的**城市中心**，**火灾**也会带来**烟雾**，这些都是我们需要应对的。
Original English **Host**: Okay. And of course, with fires, even if we're, you know, in an urban centre like Toronto, there is smoke and all of that that we have to contend with as well.
**Anabela Bonato**: 完全正确。
Original English **Anabela Bonato**: Absolutely.
**主持人**: 好的，Greg，作为极端**风暴**和**龙卷风**领域的专家，让我们来谈谈本省的**防灾准备**。您是否担心**防灾准备**不足？我们有哪些**安全措施**？
Original English **Host**: All right. Greg, as a specialist in the field of extreme wind storms and tornadoes, let's talk a little bit about preparedness here in this province. Are you concerned about the lack of preparedness? What do we have in terms of safeguards?
**Greg Kopp**: 嗯，不多。这确实令人担忧。在严重**风暴**和极端**风暴**中，最主要的脆弱点之一是屋顶。我们的屋顶非常坚固，可以承受积雪。但当**风**袭来时，它会试图掀翻屋顶。我们需要将其固定住。有一些简单的方法可以**缓解**这种情况，但我们还没有做到。这就是人们的脆弱之处。这对生命安全构成威胁。如果你的屋顶在**龙卷风**中被掀翻，它可能会落下并击中你下风处的邻居的房子，你的墙壁也容易倒塌。所以，这就是对真正极端**风暴**的担忧所在。
Original English **Greg Kopp**: Well not much. And so it is concerning one of the peak vulnerabilities in severe storms in in severe wind storms is the roof. Our roofs are really strong for holding the snow up. But when the wind comes, it wants to lift the roof up. And we need to hold hold it down actually. And there's simple things we can do to mitigate that, but we're not doing them yet. And, and so that's where the vulnerability is for people. And it's a life safety threat. If your roof comes off in a tornado that can go down and hit your neighbour's house downwind, and you're also your, your walls are vulnerable to collapse. So that's where where the concerns are for real extreme windstorms.
**主持人**: **龙卷风**来袭时，在家里最安全的地方是哪里？
Original English **Host**: Where is the safest place to be in a, in a home when a tornado is hitting?
**Greg Kopp**: 地下室。幸运的是，在加拿大和安大略省，我们的大多数房子都有地下室。所以那里是躲避严重**风暴**的非常安全的地方。如果你无法进入地下室，就远离窗户，尽量到房子的**内部**。
Original English **Greg Kopp**: Well, the basement. And fortunately in Canada and Ontario, most of our homes have basements. And so that's a really safe place to go in a severe windstorm. If you don't have access to a basement, get away from the windows and get to the the interior of the house if you can.
**主持人**: 所以对于那些，当然，我们在多伦多市以及主要城市，有很多高楼，很多公寓。您指的是进入建筑的**中心**。
Original English **Host**: So for those, of course, we're in the city of Toronto and major cities, lots of towers, lots of condos, apartments. You're talking get into the centre of the building.
**Greg Kopp**: 是的。远离玻璃。尽量靠近**电梯核心**。当玻璃承受压力时，实际上会释放出微小的颗粒，因为它处于应力之下。所以即使你的窗户没有破裂，也存在危险。所以要远离窗户。
Original English **Greg Kopp**: Yeah. Get away from the glass. Get towards the elevator core glass when it's under pressure, actually can emit small particles as it as it's stressed. And so there's a danger even if your windows don't break. So get away from the windows.
**主持人**: 好的，Anabela，我们回到**洪水**问题。当我们看到安大略省的**洪水**时，我们谈论的是**流域**。是河流泛滥吗？是**下水道系统**堵塞吗？当两者都被淹没时会发生什么？
Original English **Host**: All right, Annabelle, let's get back to flooding. When we see flooding Ontario. Is it we talk about the watershed. Is it rivers overflowing? Is it sewer systems backing up? What happens when both are overwhelmed?
**Anabela Bonato**: 是的，这是多种因素的结合。历史上我们看到更多的是河流**泛滥**。所以，我们的城市都是围绕着河流建造的。所以我们可能会经常看到这种情况。但在过去几年，比如最近的15年，我们看到了更多的**城市洪水**，或者称为** thepluvial flooding**。所以这是由大量**降雨**引起的。是的，**pluvial**。好的。它源于**雨水**这个词，或者也称为**地表径流洪水**（overland flooding）。所以这些说法意思都差不多，就是大量的雨水落下，因为我们建造的城市有很多**铺装路面**，雨水无处可去。所以它会进入我们的房屋。因此，我们越来越多地看到这种情况，看到我们的排水系统被淹没。然后**水**再次无处可去，进入你的家。所以，人们做好准备非常重要，无论在哪里。所以即使你离河流不远，你仍然有**洪水**的风险，仅仅是因为你家周围有**铺装路面**。
Original English **Anabela Bonato**: Yeah, it's a combination. And historically we used to see more river flooding occur. So again our cities are built around rivers. So we can see that happen quite a bit. But over the last few years like the last 15, we're seeing a lot more just urban flooding or what's called pluvial flooding. So flooding from a lot of rain coming down. Yep. Pluvial. Okay. Which comes from a word about rain or it's also talked about as overland flooding. So all of those kind of mean the same thing that a lot of rain comes down because we've built cities with a lot of pavement. The rain has nowhere to go. So it goes into our homes. So we're more and more seeing that and seeing our systems being overflown. And so then the water again has nowhere to go, goes into your home. So it's so important that people prepare everywhere. So even if you're not really close to a river, you're still at risk of flooding just because there's pavement around your home.
**主持人**: 当我们谈论**准备**时，我们正在做什么？
Original English **Host**: When we talk about preparing, what are we doing?
**Anabela Bonato**: 是的，有很多事情要做。在市一级，理想情况下，我们希望保护我们的**流域**。所以有很多关于**流域**重要性的讨论。它们有什么作用？它们减缓**水流**。所以在**水流**高峰期，它能够减缓**水流**，净化**水**，并缓慢释放。所以理想情况下，我们要保留它们。但是，如果你已经有了房子，周围已经有很多**铺装路面**，你可以安装一个**排水泵**，或者检查你是否有一个**排水泵**。确保你有一个备用电池。因为**极端风暴**时，电力往往会中断。你想确保它仍然在工作。对于更简单的事情，清理你的**屋檐排水槽**（eavesdrops），确保**水**能顺利地从你的家流走，还可以延长你的**落水管**（downspouts）。所以有很多事情可以做。
Original English **Anabela Bonato**: Yeah, there's so much to do. So at the municipal level, ideally, you know, we want to preserve our watersheds. So there's a lot of conversation around what's the importance of watershed. What do they do for us? They slow down water. So that peak time when the water is coming down, it can slow it down, clean it and release it slowly. So ideally we keep those around. But also, if you already have your home, there's already a lot of pavement around you. You can install a sump pump or check if you have a sump pump. Make sure you have a backup battery. So electricity tends to go out with these extreme storms. You want to make sure that's still working. And for simpler things, cleaning out your eavesdrops, making sure that water can flow freely away from your home by also extending your downspouts. So lots of stuff that can be done.
**主持人**: 好的，Greg，就这个省而言，当我们谈论**龙卷风**时，我首先想到的是美国。我想到**龙卷风巷**（Tornado Alley），那里有最高的**龙卷风**发生率。你曾说过这里的情况正在发生变化，我们能感觉到安大略省哪些地区最脆弱吗？我认为 Newmarket、Aurora和Uxbridge的许多人都对几年前发生的事情记忆犹新。他们需要担心吗？还是这些**风暴**正朝哪个方向发展？
Original English **Host**: Okay, Greg, in terms of this province, when we talk about tornadoes, the first thing I think about is actually the US. And I think about Tornado Alley where, you know, they have the highest incidence of tornadoes. Do we have a sense you had said that things are shifting here in this province? Do we have a sense of where in Ontario is the most vulnerable? I think a lot of people in Newmarket, in Aurora and Uxbridge have, you know, strong memories of what happened only a few years ago. Do they need to be concerned or what direction are these storms heading?
**Greg Kopp**: 是的，它们发生在安大略省西南部。实际上，我们分析出的高峰期就在我所在的**伦敦**（London）。我们在安大略省西南部已经有好几年没有遇到大的**龙卷风**了。但从统计学上讲，那里最多。而且，省的南部地区都非常容易受到影响。自我们启动**北方龙卷风项目**（Northern Tornadoes Project）以来，我们每年在安大略省南部和魁北克省都看到超过60场**龙卷风**，这比人们通常认为的**龙卷风**数量要多得多。所以这种脆弱性正在增长，而且由于我们的人口不断增长，我们向外扩张，覆盖了更多的土地，这种脆弱性也在增长。所以，由于这两方面——不断变化的地形模式和人口增长——我们面临的脆弱性也更大。
Original English **Greg Kopp**: Yeah, well, they're in southwest Ontario. Actually, the peak that we've analysed is right here in London where I am. We haven't had a big one in southwestern Ontario in a number of years. But statistically, that's where where the most are. And but all of the southern part of the province is, is really vulnerable to it. Since we started the Northern Tornadoes project, we've been seeing over 60 tornadoes a year in in Ontario, southern Ontario, and Quebec, which is quite a lot more than one one really thinks about with tornadoes. So that vulnerability is growing and it's also growing because as our population grows and we spread out over the land, we're covering more of the space. So so we just have more vulnerability from those two things. The changing pattern and population growth.
**主持人**: 考虑到这一点，Greg，如果能让你挥舞魔杖，假设你能做一件事，让安大略省——不只是个人层面，而是从省级角度——更好地应对**风暴**和极端**天气**，那会是什么？
Original English **Host**: With that being said, Greg, if there was one thing you could do, wave your magic wand, let's say that would better prepare Ontario not just on an individual level, but from a provincial lens to to deal with severe storms and extreme weather. What would it be?
**Greg Kopp**: 我会改变**建筑规范**。我会改变我们建造房屋的方式，让它们更安全。对于新建房屋来说，这实际上非常符合成本效益。只需几百到一千美元，就可以使其具备**防龙卷风**的韧性。而且，我们通过这种方式固定了结构。所以我们认为这对安大略省来说是一项非常好的投资。因此，我们建议修改**建筑规范**。
Original English **Greg Kopp**: I would change the building code. I would change the way, the way we build our houses just to make them safer. It actually is really cost effective in new construction. It's a few hundred dollars to $1,000 to make it resilient to tornadoes. And, and we hold the structure in place with that. And so we think that's a really good investment for, for, for Ontario. And so we'd recommend changes to the building code.
**主持人**: 好的。Anabela，如果你有那根魔杖，有什么事情可以帮助安大略省为这些**风暴**做好准备，无论是短期还是长期？住房是一个方面。还有别的事情吗？
Original English **Host**: All right. Anabela, if you had that magic wand, if there was something that you could do to help prepare Ontario for these storms, whether it's in the short term or the long term, got housing, that's one. Is there something else?
**Anabela Bonato**: 我可以挥舞它得到两个愿望吗？
Original English **Anabela Bonato**: Can I waive it and get two wishes?
**主持人**: 当然。
Original English **Host**: Sure. For sure.
**Anabela Bonato**: 第一个愿望是：**远离洪泛区**建造。所以，我们不再在那些**会发生洪水**的区域建造基础设施、房屋和道路。在此基础上，我们也应该加大对**基于自然的解决方案**（nature based solutions）的投入。这将是我的第二个愿望。正如我提到的，湿地在为我们工作。维护它们对我们来说便宜得多。它是自然的。我们喜欢待在它们周围，我们还可以在它们周围建造步行道，供人们使用。它们可以吸收城市地区大约38%的洪水。我们有可用的湿地。所以这将是我的两个愿望。
Original English **Anabela Bonato**: Go for it. The first one would be building away from floodplains. So let's no longer build our infrastructure, homes and roads in the areas that are meant to flood. With that being said, also let's invest more in our nature based solutions. So that would be my wish. Number two. So as I mentioned, you know, wetlands are doing the job for us. There's so much cheaper for us to maintain. It's natural. We love to be around them. We can build walks around them so that people can use them as well. And they absorb about 38% of flood waters when they go through urban areas. And we have those wetlands available. So those would be my two things that I would ask for.
**主持人**: 好的，Greg，Anabela，非常感谢。
Original English **Host**: All right. I think that's a great point to leave off on Greg. Anabela, really appreciate it. Thank you so much.
**Anabela Bonato**: 感谢您的邀请。
Original English **Anabela Bonato**: Thanks for having me.
**主持人**: 谢谢。我是Jeyan。感谢收看The Rundown。您想了解更多关于什么？发邮件给我们 rundown at TVO.org 或通过社交媒体联系我。一如既往，请告诉我们您的想法。下次再见。
Original English **Host**: Thank you. I'm Jeyan. Thanks for watching The Rundown. What do you want to know more about? Email us at rundown at TVO.org or reach out to me on social media. And as always, let us know what you think. Until then, I will see you tomorrow.