Tigris | 会讲课教授是好老师 · 2025-12-10 · 帖子

Forget Fed's rate cut and Powell's script. In the Trump–Fed knife fight he is basically a caretaker on borrowed time. If you want to know whether risk still has a bid, you watch Chicago Fed’s NFCI and ANFCI, not the press conference. Both indices are sitting around −0.5. Zero is “normal,” positive is tight, negative is loose. NFCI, a composite index of risk, credit and leverage that maps the real liquidity regime. NFCI < 0 already tells you there is no broad credit crunch, no systemic “funding winter.” ANFCI is even more negative, which means that after you strip out the macro cycle, financial conditions are still looser than the economy alone would justify. Translate that into plain portfolio language: high policy rates do not equal tight financial conditions. As long as NFCI and ANFCI stay below zero, the system is still willing to fund stories with long duration cash flows and heavy capex. The AI capex wave, the four-to-five-hundred-billion-a-year data center buildout, high-multiple semis and software names all sit on top of that liquidity bedrock. So my playbook for tomorrow is simple. After the meeting, I am less interested in whether Powell sounds “hawkish” or “dovish” and more interested in where NFCI and ANFCI drift over the next few weeks. If they stay negative while the Fed is already cutting, then monetary easing is not being neutralized by markets, it is being amplified. That is how you extend an equity boom, not how you kill it.