Tigris | 会讲课教授是好老师 · 2025-11-22 · 帖子

If there was a real bubble, it happened in 2023 and 2024, when a single early model like GPT-3 or GPT-4 was enough to send Nvidia up tenfold and push valuations into triple-digit territory. That period was speculation driven by imagination rather than earnings. What we are seeing in 2025 is the opposite. This year has been about validation, not excess. The AI buildout is now funded by four real buyers with real cash flow, like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta and their collective valuation sits near 26 times earnings, far below the seventy times we saw in the dot-com era. The market is also no longer treating AI as a single trade. Dispersion is everywhere. Google, which finally aligned hardware, software, and infrastructure, delivered a genuine rerating after years of underperformance and posted roughly fifty percent annual returns. In contrast, Amazon’s high multiple and slowing growth, and Meta’s strong growth but weak AI cloud monetization, left both stocks flat for most of the year. This is not what bubbles look like. This is what a rational repricing looks like when earnings momentum and monetization pathways decide who wins. Across all the downturns I’ve lived through, I have never seen a correction as orderly and disciplined as 2025. AI Capex is still expanding, and the business models are only beginning to show real commercial traction. You don’t disprove a technology cycle while the infrastructure is still being built. If anything, this phase is where high-quality names offer the best risk-reward, and these prices start to look more like a Black Friday sale than the end of a trend.