Tigris | 会讲课教授是好老师 · 2025-11-22 · 帖子

If you want to size $GOOG, you need a range, not fantasies. Investors get lost because they listen to every “10x” pitch and forget the math. Here’s how I look at it. We’re entering a 10 to 20 trillion AI value cycle. Alphabet can reasonably take 1 to 2 trillion of that. Moving from 3T to 4–5T is not storytelling. It’s value shifting toward whoever controls the workflow. The upside is never about the multiple. It’s about earnings velocity. If Google embeds AGI into Search, Android, and enterprise operations, the business model changes. You stop selling ads. You start charging an access fee to the digital labor economy. That means higher intent capture, higher ad yield, and a larger enterprise mix. Run the tape. If commercialization works, 2028 can land near 15 EPS. Put a 30 multiple on that, and you get a 450 stock and a 5.5T company. Of course there are risks.Regulatory breakups. AI cannibalizing core search. One headline can take the stock down 15 percent. But with Buffett anchoring the floor around 250, anything short of an extreme shock is just volatility, not a thesis break. In this market, you don’t follow stories. You follow earnings acceleration. And right now, Alphabet still has a real shot at owning the next leg of productivity growth.