---
author: New York Times Podcasts
date: '2026-05-13'
guest: ''
layout: post.njk
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oy4uehvmXws
speaker: New York Times Podcasts
tags:
  - iran-conflict
  - us-inflation
  - immigration-policy
  - climate-change
  - eurovision-politics
title: 美情报报告挑战特朗普对伊战争论调，美国通胀加速，“鳄鱼阿尔卡特拉斯”关闭，及欧洲歌唱大赛争议
summary: 本期《纽约时报》播报聚焦多项要闻：美情报显示伊朗军事实力被低估，与特朗普政府说法不符；美国通胀加剧，消费者物价指数创三年新高；“鳄鱼阿尔卡特拉斯”拘留中心因成本过高即将关闭；美国东南部遭遇异常野火季；欧洲歌唱大赛因以色列参与引发争议及抵制；并提及特朗普访华及相关播报。
insight: ''
draft: true
series: ''
category: politics-society
area: geopolitics
project: []
people:
  - Donald Trump
  - Benjamin Netanyahu
  - Ron DeSantis
companies_orgs:
  - The New York Times
  - US military
  - Pentagon
  - Department of Homeland Security
products_models: []
media_books: []
status: evergreen
---
### 美国情报报告挑战特朗普政府对伊朗军事实力的论调

《纽约时报》的播报指出，秘密的美国情报评估显示，伊朗的军事实力远比**特朗普政府**（Trump administration）所宣称的要强大。尽管**美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯**（Pete Hegseth）声称联合美以军事行动“摧毁了伊朗的军事能力”，**特朗普总统**（President Trump）也曾断言伊朗“在军事上已一无所有”，但解密情报却有力地反驳了这些说法。报告显示，伊朗仍保留了战前约70%的导弹储备，几乎恢复了其在**霍尔木兹海峡**（Strait of Hormuz）沿线的全部导弹发射点，以及约90%的地下导弹储存和发射设施。据《纽约时报》采访的官员透露，这在一定程度上归因于美国军方在战争初期的一个战术性权衡：由于**精确制导弹药**（bunker-busting bombs）供应有限，美军选择封堵而非彻底摧毁许多伊朗的导弹设施。总体而言，此次评估表明美国低估了伊朗的韧性及其恢复能力。

就情报内容，**白宫发言人**（White House spokesman）重申了特朗普关于伊朗军队已被“粉碎”的说法。**代理五角大楼新闻秘书**（acting Pentagon press secretary）则指责《纽约时报》等媒体充当“伊朗政权的公关代理”。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

From
 The
 New
 York
 Times,
 it's
 The


[music]
 Headlines.
 I'm
 Will
 Jarvis
 in


for
 Tracy
 Mumford.
 Today
 is
 Wednesday,


May
 13th.
 Here's
 what
 we're
 covering.


The
 Times
 has
 learned
 that
 secret
 US


intelligence
 assessments
 show
 Iran's


military
 remains
 much
 stronger
 than
 the


Trump
 administration
 has
 claimed.
 By
 any


measure,


Epic
 Fury
 decimated
 Iran's
 military
 and


rendered
 it
 combat
 ineffective
 for
 years


to
 come.
 Defense
 Secretary
 Pete
 Hegseth


has
 said
 that
 the
 joint
 US
 Israeli


campaign
 obliterated
 Iran's
 military


capabilities.
 And
 President
 Trump
 has


claimed
 that
 Iran
 has,
 quote,
 nothing


left
 in
 a
 military
 sense.
 But
 the


classified
 intelligence
 sharply


undercuts
 that.
 It
 shows
 Iran
 still
 has


roughly
 70%
 of
 its
 pre-war
 missile


stockpile.
 The
 country
 has
 also
 restored


access
 to
 almost
 all
 of
 its
 missile


sites
 along
 the
 Strait
 of
 Hormuz.
 And


Iran
 has
 access
 to
 roughly
 90%
 of
 its


underground
 missile
 storage
 and
 launch


facilities.
 Officials
 The
 Times
 talked


to
 said
 that's
 in
 part
 because
 of
 a


tactical
 trade-off
 made
 by
 the
 US


military
 early
 in
 the
 war.
 It
 only
 had
 a


limited
 supply
 of
 bunker-busting
 bombs.


So
 it
 decided
 to
 try
 and
 just
 seal
 off


the
 entrances
 to
 many
 of
 Iran's
 missile


facilities
 instead
 of
 destroying
 them


completely.


Overall,
 the
 assessment
 suggests
 the
 US


underestimated
 Iran's
 resilience
 and
 its


ability
 to
 bounce
 back.


>> [music]


>> In
 response
 to
 questions
 about
 the


intelligence,
 a
 White
 House
 spokesman


repeated
 Trump's
 previous
 claims
 that


Iran's
 military
 has
 been
 crushed.
 And


the
 acting
 Pentagon
 press
 secretary


accused
 The
 Times
 and
 other
 media


outlets
 of
 acting
 as,
 quote,
 public


relations
 agents
 for
 the
 Iranian
 regime.
</details>

### 美国通货膨胀加速，民众经济压力增大

与此同时，随着战事持续，新的**联邦数据**（federal data）显示**通货膨胀**（inflation）已加速。美国**消费者价格**（Consumer prices）上月以三年来最快速度上涨，主要受**能源价格**（energy prices）推动。这不仅体现在汽油和机票价格上，也影响着任何需要通过柴油卡车或船只运输的商品，这意味着绝大多数商品的价格都将受到影响。当**特朗普总统**（President Trump）被问及美国民众的经济痛苦是否会促使他结束战争时，他直言“一点也不会”。他表示，唯一重要的是“关于伊朗，他们不能拥有核武器”，并称自己不考虑美国的财政状况，只考虑这一核心目标。

面对**汽油**（gas）、**食品杂货**（groceries）及其他必需品价格的上涨，越来越多的美国家庭不得不通过**借贷**（borrowing money）来维持生计，并纷纷申请新的**信用卡**（credit cards）。这一趋势在最近物价飙升之前就已经显现。截至几个月前，美国的信用卡余额已创下1.3万亿美元的纪录。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

>> [music]


>> Meanwhile,
 as
 the
 war
 continues,
 new


federal
 data
 shows
 that
 inflation
 has


accelerated.
 Consumer
 prices
 in
 the
 US


rose
 last
 month
 at
 [music]
 the
 fastest


rate
 in
 3
 years.
 The
 increase
 was
 driven


largely
 by
 energy
 prices.
 People
 are


feeling
 that
 not
 just
 at
 the
 pump
 and


with
 airline
 tickets,
 but
 with
 any
 goods


that
 have
 to
 be
 transported
 by
 a


diesel-fueled
 truck
 or
 on
 a
 boat,
 which


is
 a
 lot
 of
 things.
 When
 President
 Trump


was
 asked
 yesterday
 about
 whether


Americans'
 economic
 pain
 was
 motivating


him
 to
 wrap
 up
 the
 war,
 he
 had
 a
 blunt


answer.
 Not
 even
 a
 little
 bit.
 The
 only


thing
 that
 matters
 is
 when
 I'm
 talking


about
 Iran,
 they
 can't
 have
 a
 nuclear


weapon.
 I
 don't
 think
 about


American
 financial
 situation.
 I
 don't


think
 about
 anybody.
 I
 think
 about


Facing
 the
 rise
 in
 prices
 for
 gas,


groceries,
 and
 other
 staples,
 more
 and


more
 American
 households
 are
 borrowing


money
 to
 get
 by
 and
 signing
 up
 for
 new


credit
 cards.
 That
 trend
 was
 already
 in


the
 works
 even
 before
 these
 latest


spikes.
 As
 of
 a
 couple
 months
 ago,


credit
 card
 balances
 in
 the
 US
 had


reached
 a
 record
 1.3
 trillion
 dollars.
</details>

### 备受争议的“鳄鱼阿尔卡特拉斯”拘留中心即将关闭

《纽约时报》获悉，位于**佛罗里达大沼泽地**（Florida Everglades）中心的、备受争议的**“鳄鱼阿尔卡特拉斯”**（Alligator Alcatraz）拘留中心即将关闭。该中心建于去年，设有多顶帐篷，以其**孤立**（isolation）和**恶劣环境**（harsh surroundings）为特点，被宣传为独一无二。**特朗普总统**（President Trump）和**佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯**（Florida Governor Ron DeSantis）曾极力推广该中心的绰号，并表示其存在本身就能鼓励**无证移民**（undocumented immigrants）**自行遣返**（self-deport）。该中心还被视为**联邦与州之间**（federal-state）**移民合作**（cooperation on immigration）的典范，由佛罗里达州运营，联邦政府负责报销。然而，**美国国土安全部**（Department of Homeland Security）现已认定该偏远地点成本过高，并将予以关闭。据多位知情人士透露，佛罗里达州每天花费逾百万美元运营该中心，并仍在等待联邦政府偿还超过6亿美元的款项。在其短暂的开放时间里，该中心因条件恶劣而饱受批评，被拘留者描述为**不卫生**（unsanitary）和**不人道**（inhumane），帐篷漏雨、淋浴不频繁、缺乏药物获取途径。佛罗里达州官员则坚称这些说法“完全不实”。截至上个月，该中心约有1400名被拘留者，目前尚不清楚他们将被转移到何处，但预计将在下月初完成转移。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

>> [music]


[music]


>> The
 Times
 has
 learned
 that
 Alligator


Alcatraz,
 the
 controversial
 detention


center
 in
 the
 middle
 of
 the
 Florida


Everglades,
 is
 shutting
 down.
 We're


surrounded
 by
 miles
 of
 treacherous


swampland,
 and
 the
 only
 way
 out
 is


really
 deportation.
 And


>> opened
 last
 year
 with
 tents
 spread


across
 an
 old
 airfield
 and
 was
 billed
 as


one
 of
 a
 kind,
 given
 its
 isolation
 and


harsh
 surroundings.
 Why
 would
 you
 want


to
 come
 through
 Alligator
 Alcatraz
 if


you
 can
 just
 go
 home
 on
 your
 own?


President
 Trump
 and
 Florida
 Governor
 Ron


DeSantis
 played
 up
 the
 site's
 nickname


and
 said
 that
 its
 very
 existence
 would


encourage
 undocumented
 immigrants
 to


self-deport.
 The
 center
 was
 also
 talked


up
 as
 an
 example
 of
 federal-state


cooperation
 on
 immigration,
 with
 Florida


operating
 the
 facility
 and
 the
 federal


government
 paying
 the
 state
 back.
 But


now,
 the
 Department
 of
 Homeland
 Security


has
 determined
 that
 the
 remote
 site
 was


too
 expensive,
 and
 Florida
 is
 going
 to


close
 it
 down,
 according
 to
 multiple


people
 familiar
 with
 the
 plans.
 Florida


has
 been
 spending
 more
 than
 a
 million


dollars
 a
 day
 to
 run
 the
 center,
 and


it's
 still
 waiting
 to
 get
 back
 more
 than


$600
 million
 from
 the
 federal


government.
 In
 the
 short
 time
 that
 it


was
 open,
 the
 center
 faced
 criticism
 for


conditions
 there.
 Detainees
 described
 it


as
 unsanitary
 and
 inhumane.
 Rain
 leaking


into
 tents,
 infrequent
 showers,
 lack
 of


access
 to
 medication.
 Florida
 officials


have
 dismissed
 those
 claims
 as


completely
 false.
 As
 of
 last
 month,


there
 were
 about
 1,400
 detainees
 held
 at


the
 center.
 It's
 not
 clear
 where
 they


will
 go
 now,
 but
 they're
 expected
 to
 be


moved
 out
 by
 the
 beginning
 of
 next


month.
</details>

### 美国东南部野火季异常严峻，气候变化加剧风险

在**美国东南部**（southeastern US），消防员正处于灭火一线，紧急扑救多处火灾。该地区正经历异常**提早且强度剧烈**（unusually early and unusually intense）的**森林火灾季**（wildfire season）。**大风**（high winds）助长了火势，而弥漫的**烟雾**（smoke）笼罩了**亚特兰大**（Atlanta），导致空气质量恶化。**佐治亚州**（Georgia）和**佛罗里达州**（Florida）的大火，是由该地区肆虐的严重**干旱**（drought）驱动的。数月以来，该地区一直未能获得充足的降雨。

恶劣的**气候条件**（conditions）使得火势变得极其危险且难以控制，**佐治亚州林业部门**（Georgia forestry official）的一位官员形容火焰高达数十英尺。迄今为止，火灾已摧毁至少120所房屋，并导致一名消防员牺牲。东南部地区因其广阔的**木材种植园**（timber plantations）被称为“国家的木材粮仓”，如今其中一些也正在燃烧。

研究表明，该地区**火灾**（fires）日益频繁，科学家们怀疑这是**气候变化**（climate change）的结果。即使是过去不常发生火灾的区域，如**湿地**（wetlands），现在也开始着火。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

>> [music]


>> Firefighters
 on
 the
 front
 lines
 urgently


racing
 to
 put
 out
 several
 blazes
 from


the
 ground
 to
 the
 air.
 In
 the


southeastern
 US,
 states
 are
 seeing
 an


unusually
 early
 and
 unusually
 intense


start
 to
 wildfire
 season.
 The
 embers


spread
 by
 high
 winds
 and
 the
 smoke
 now


draped
 over
 Atlanta,
 making
 the
 air


Large
 fires
 in
 Georgia
 and
 Florida
 are


being
 driven
 by
 severe,
 widespread


drought
 that's
 been
 gripping
 the
 region.


We
 have
 not
 seen
 the
 proper
 amount
 of


rain
 for
 months
 and
 months
 on
 end.
 Let's


take
 a
 look


>> conditions
 have
 made
 the
 blazes


extremely
 dangerous
 and
 harder
 to


contain,
 with
 one
 Georgia
 forestry


official
 describing
 flames
 dozens
 of


feet
 high.
 So
 far,
 the
 fires
 have


destroyed
 at
 least
 120
 homes
 and
 one


firefighter
 has
 been
 killed.
 The


southeast
 is
 known
 as
 the
 nation's
 wood


basket
 due
 to
 the
 sprawling
 timber


plantations
 there,
 some
 of
 which
 are
 now


burning.


Overall,
 research
 has
 shown
 that
 fires


in
 the
 region
 are
 becoming
 more


frequent,
 which
 scientists
 suspect
 is
 a


result
 of
 climate
 change.
 Even
 areas


that
 haven't
 traditionally
 burned
 in
 the


past,
 like
 wetlands,
 are
 now
 catching


[music]
 on
 fire.
</details>

### 欧洲歌唱大赛因以色列参与引发争议与抵制

**欧洲歌唱大赛**（Eurovision SONG CONTEST）已于昨晚拉开帷幕。这场盛大的、充满**闪耀**（glittery）元素的年度赛事是全球观看人数最多的文化活动之一，吸引了30多个国家的歌手参赛，观众投票数以百万计。然而，政治争议笼罩了本届大赛，特别是关于**以色列的参与**（Israel's involvement）及其试图影响赛事的行为。去年，以色列在**观众投票**（popular vote）中获得第二名，曾出乎许多人意料，尤其是在一些反以色列情绪较高的国家。

《纽约时报》的调查揭示，**以色列政府**（Israeli government）曾试图利用欧洲歌唱大赛作为一项**公关活动**（PR campaign），以改善其在**加沙战争**（war in Gaza）引发的国际**谴责**（outcry）声中本国**公众形象**（public image）。去年的措施包括投入资金推广以色列的参赛者，其中部分资金来自**总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡**（Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu）领导的一个负责**海外宣传**（overseas propaganda）的办公室。报道称，这一行为打破了当时的常规，且通过获取部分国家的投票数据，发现影响欧洲歌唱大赛的结果“出奇地容易”。尽管过去其他国家政府也曾介入，但以色列去年的介入程度是前所未有的。

对于质疑，**欧洲歌唱大赛总监**（director of Eurovision）向《纽约时报》表示，以色列的行为“过度”，但否认影响了最终结果。今年，包括**西班牙**（Spain）、**爱尔兰**（Ireland）和**冰岛**（Iceland）在内的五个国家因以色列的参与而**全面抵制**（boycotting）本届大赛。据**莫里斯**（Morris）称，欧洲歌唱大赛正因此遭受打击，面临**资金损失**（losing money）和**赞助商流失**（struggling with sponsors），收视率（通常超过1.6亿人）也可能出现下滑。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

And
 finally,
 Let
 the
 Eurovision
 SONG


CONTEST
 BEGIN!
 Eurovision
 kicked
 off


last
 night.


>> I
 CAN'T
 HEAR
 YOU.


THE
 campy
 glittery
 spectacle
 is
 the
 most


watched
 cultural
 events
 on
 the
 planet


with
 singers
 from
 more
 than
 30
 countries


competing
 and
 viewers
 casting
 millions


of
 votes.


>> You,
 you,
 you
 and
 you
 at
 home.
 All
 of


you
 can
 vote
 [music]
 and
 decide
 how
 this


evening
 unfolds.


>> It's
 supposed
 to
 just
 be
 about
 who
 has


the
 best
 song
 and
 the
 competition
 is


adamant
 that
 it
 has
 nothing
 to
 do
 with


politics,
 but
 a
 controversy
 over


Israel's
 involvement
 and
 what
 the


country
 has
 done
 to
 try
 and
 influence


the
 contest
 has
 engulfed
 Eurovision.
 So


when
 Israel
 came
 in
 second
 last
 year
 and


won
 the
 popular
 vote,
 it
 was
 surprising.


I
 was
 at
 a
 watch
 party
 at
 the
 time.
 I


remember
 people
 gasped
 audibly.
 You


know,
 some
 of
 these
 countries
 where


Israel
 won,
 anti-Israel
 sentiment
 was


actually
 quite
 high
 at
 the
 time.
 And
 so


we
 set
 out
 to
 understand
 how
 that
 could


happen.
 My
 colleagues
 Mara
 Vistendal
 and


Alex
 Marshall
 have
 been
 looking
 at
 how


the
 Israeli
 government
 tried
 to
 use


Eurovision
 basically
 as
 a
 PR
 campaign,
 a


way
 to
 try
 and
 shore
 up
 the
 country's


public
 image
 amid
 outcry
 over
 the
 war
 in


Gaza.


Last
 year
 that
 included
 throwing
 money


into
 marketing
 the
 Israeli
 contestant.


We
 found
 that
 some
 of
 that
 money
 came


from
 an
 office
 under
 Prime
 Minister


Benjamin
 Netanyahu
 that's
 essentially


tasked
 with
 overseas
 propaganda.


It
 definitely
 broke
 norms
 at
 the
 time


and
 you
 know,
 you
 could
 ask,
 well,
 why


spend
 this
 much
 on
 social
 media
 ads
 and


do
 those
 ads
 really
 have
 an
 effect?
 But


we
 learned
 because
 we
 were
 able
 to


obtain
 vote
 data
 from
 some
 countries


that
 it's
 actually
 surprisingly
 easy
 to


influence
 Eurovision
 results.
 And
 you


know,
 other
 governments
 have
 gotten


involved
 in
 Eurovision
 in
 the
 past
 to


some
 degree,
 but
 nothing
 to
 the
 extent


of
 what
 we
 saw
 with
 Israel
 in
 our


reporting.


>> [music]


>> In
 response
 to
 questions,
 the
 director


of
 Eurovision
 told
 the
 Times
 that


Israel's
 actions
 were
 excessive
 but


denied
 that
 they
 affected
 the
 outcome.


This
 year
 five
 countries
 are
 boycotting


Eurovision
 entirely
 over
 Israel's


involvement
 including
 Spain,
 Ireland,


and
 Iceland.
 Morris
 says
 Eurovision
 is


taking
 a
 hit
 with
 all
 of
 this
 losing


money
 struggling
 with
 sponsors
 and
 it's


possible
 that
 viewership
 which
 usually


numbers
 over
 160
 million
 [music]
 people


could
 see
 a
 dip.
</details>

### 其他新闻与节目预告

最后，《纽约时报》播报的“头条新闻”部分结束。今日的“每日要闻”（what to know）节目将关注**特朗普总统**（President Trump）的中国之行，他将于今日早些时候抵达。听众可在**《纽约时报》App**（New York Times app）或任何播客平台收听。主持人**威尔·贾维斯**（Will Jarvis）表示，节目将在明日由**特蕾西·蒙福德**（Tracy Mumford）继续。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

>> [music]


>> Those
 are
 the
 headlines.
 Today
 on
 the


daily
 what
 to
 know
 about
 President


Trump's
 visit
 to
 China
 [music]
 where


he's
 set
 to
 land
 this
 morning.


You
 can
 listen
 to
 that
 in
 the
 New
 York


Times
 app
 or
 wherever
 you
 get
 your


podcasts.
 I'm
 Will
 Jarvis.
 The
 show
 will


be
 back
 tomorrow
 with
 Tracy
 Mumford.


[music]
</details>