--- author: TVO Today date: '2026-03-20' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_xcLT1cwrc speaker: TVO Today tags: - petrodollar-system - oil-supply-disruption - canadian-energy - geopolitical-risk - energy-prices title: 石油美元的未来：加拿大能源的机遇与挑战 summary: 本期访谈深入探讨了石油美元体系的未来走向及其面临的挑战，分析了当前全球石油供应中断对市场造成的冲击。专家们讨论了加拿大作为可靠能源供应国的机遇，包括其在国际市场上的价格优势和基础设施建设需求。访谈还触及了加拿大国内炼油能力、对美出口依赖以及吸引外国投资的潜力，并展望了在中东局势动荡下，原油价格可能飙升的未来。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: macro-economy area: geopolitics project: [] people: [] companies_orgs: [] products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 石油美元体系面临挑战 **Bob Yawger**: 很高兴再次请到我们 **Mizuho Americas** 的大宗商品专家 **Bob Yawger**。还有 **Commodity Context** 通讯的创始人、石油市场研究员 **Rory Johnston**。以及 **Macdonald-laurier Institute** 的能源、自然资源与环境部主任 **Heather Exner Pacheedaht**。非常感谢三位来到节目。
Original English **Bob Yawger**: Bob Yawger is a commodity specialist with Mizuho Americas joins us again. And Rory Johnston is an oil market researcher and founder of the Commodity Context newsletter. And Heather Exner Pacheedaht is the director of energy, Natural resources and environment at the Macdonald-laurier Institute. Great to have you all on the program.
**Rory**, 我先问你。石油美元体系始于 20 世纪 70 年代。这意味着中东石油生产国以美元出售他们的产品。他们自然会将这些收入用于购买美国资产，比如美国国债。这有助于美国为自身支出融资，同时也通过在中东换取安全保障。请你解释一下，**石油美元体系的未来**是怎样的？
Original English Rory, I'm going to start with you. The petrodollar system began in the 1970s. This is where, you know, Middle Eastern oil producers sell their products in US dollars. They spend those earnings, of course, on US assets like treasuries. It helps Americans fund America, fund its spending. Also, some exchange for security as well in the Middle East. Help us understand what is the future now of the petrodollar system.
**Rory Johnston**: 嗯，挑战之一在于，那些海湾生产商目前根本没有赚到钱，所以没有多少石油美元可以回收到这个体系中。这显然是一个巨大的流动性流失，从全球金融体系中流走，并且自然而然地转移到美元。但我认为，这种局面无法持久。我认为有些事情必须有所改变，因为我们目前面临着来自伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋等海湾生产商的**生存绝望**。 我们已经损失了每天 2000 万桶的石油供应量，这是通过海峡（霍尔木兹海峡）损失的。为了让你更直观地理解这个数字有多大，这大约相当于 2020 年 3 月和 4 月疫情高峰时全球需求损失的最大值。那时，天上没有飞机，我们都居家隔离。而现在的情况就相当于那个级别。如果海峡继续关闭，我们将需要看到一定程度的**需求破坏**来弥补这个缺口。 想象一下，在没有疫情和封锁的情况下，试图重现类似的出行受限局面，你需要什么样的价格才能达到那个程度？所以，回到海湾合作委员会（GCC）生产商的问题，你已经看到超过 900 万桶/日的产量被关停。这不仅仅是运输受阻，而是生产停止了。这些油井已经不再产油了。要让它们重新恢复生产，需要数周甚至数月的时间。进账的钱非常少。
Original English >> Well, part of the challenge is that those Gulf producers aren't currently making any money, so there's not many Petro dollars to recycle into that system. So that is obviously a massive drain of liquidity from the financial system globally, and obviously transfers directly into the US dollar. But again, I think this situation remains untenable to last. I think something is going to have to move because these are we're currently at existential levels of kind of despair of the of the Gulf producers between Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to name to name but a few. We've already had, you know, we have 20 million barrels a day lost through the strait. And just to put that in perspective, I think it's important to kind of understand how big a number that is. That was roughly the peak of global demand loss during the peak of Covid in March and April of 2020. So when not a plane was in the sky, we were all locked in our homes. That's the current level. If the strait remains closed, that we are going to need to see some degree of demand destruction to kind of close that gap. So imagine trying to replicate the mobility issues of Covid, but without a pandemic and without lockdowns, what price would you require to get there? So I think back to this question about the GCC producers, the Gulf producers, you've already seen more than 9 million barrels a day of production shut in. That's not just blocked, that's production. These wells aren't producing anymore. This is going to take weeks, months to get back up and running. There's not a lot of money coming in.
**Heather Exner Pacheedaht**, Rory 描绘了一幅严峻的景象。在你看来，石油美元体系的未来是什么样的？
Original English >> All right, Heather, Rory's painted a picture there. What is the future now for the petrodollar system as you see it?
**Heather Exner Pacheedaht**: 是的。重申一下，Rory 的说法（尽管他通常是个很均衡的人）表明情况很糟糕。我昨天刚和一些澳大利亚矿工聊过。一些锂矿的库存只够五天了，他们不得不关闭矿井。所以，“哦，我们改用电力吧”，“我们改用可再生能源吧”的想法，是基于石油及其衍生物的可用性能够支撑我们经济的各个方面。 因此，毫无疑问，无论这场危机如何结束，我们都将迎来一个“宿醉期”。我同意 Rory 的看法，从政治上看，这种局面是**不可持续的**。人们现在正在寻找**退路**。
Original English >> Yeah. Well, just to reiterate, you know, Rory's alarmism and Rory is usually pretty balanced guy, but things are bad. I was just with some Australian miners yesterday. Some of the lithium mines, they're down to five days of storage. They're going to have to shut in their mine. So the idea that oh, just move to electricity, you know, just move to renewables, the availability of oil and all the things it produces greases the wheel of every other facet of our economy. And so there's no doubt that we will have a hangover, you know, however this ends and whenever it ends, and I agree with Rory politically, it's untenable. And so people are looking for exit ramps right now,
**Bob**: 我在某种程度上同意他们。那些美元现在被锁定住了。我倾向于认为这种情况会持续两周，两个月，甚至到阵亡将士纪念日周末。**特朗普政府**无法承受将这一切拖入夏季驾驶季节。所以我期待那时能有个了结。但市场上还是有很多石油的。另一方面，全球经济应该能够承受。此前，**国际能源署（IEA）**估计每天约有 380 万桶的**石油过剩**。所以，市场上确实有很多石油，但这无疑是个问题。
Original English >> Bob. >> I think I agree with them to a certain degree. Those those dollars are locked in right now. And I would tend to think that it's going to be the case for a good two weeks, two months, or up to Memorial Day weekend is where I'm looking for kind of to wrap this up at the Trump administration cannot afford to take this into summer driving season. So I'm looking forward to end about there. But there's a lot of oil out there. On the other hand, the global economy would be able to survive. Prior to this, the International Energy Agency was estimating there was about 3.8 million barrels of surplus every single day. So there's a lot of oil out there, but it is definitely a problem.
**Bob**: 好的，我想放一张图表。这是加拿大油价从 2014 年到 2026 年的走势。但我想把焦点放在图表的右侧。**加拿大油价**上涨大约是在中东战争开始的同时。那里有一个巨大的峰值，但仍远低于 2022 年的历史高点。Rory，加拿大是否将迎来一场**石油和天然气巨额收益**？因为我们是可靠的、有些人甚至会说是**安全民主的**资源供应国。这是一个机会吗？
Original English >> All right. I want to pull in a chart. This looks at Canadian oil prices from 2014 to 2026. But I want to keep our focus onto the right hand side of this chart here. Prices of Canadian oil rose around the same time that the war began in the Middle East. A huge spike right there, but they are still well short of all time highs, which was of course, in 2022. Rory is Canada in for an oil and natural gas windfall because we, you know, we're reliable, some would say secure democratic supplier of those resources. Is this an opportunity here?
**Rory Johnston**: 我认为在初期，绝对是。看看我们已经看到的**布伦特原油价格**，目前大约是每桶 110 美元。WCS（Western Canadian Select）价差，即我们的主要重质酸性原油出口在西部加拿大的贴水，今年早些时候曾面临压力，因为委内瑞拉（在尼古拉斯·马杜罗被绑架后）发生政权更迭，以及那些**委内瑞拉重质酸性原油**的重新进入，它们与我们的原油类似，都对墨西哥湾沿岸的贴水造成了压力。 但通过伊朗的这场战争，这个价差在两周内已经完全消失了。原因在于，从中东，特别是从霍尔木兹海峡出来的原油，绝大多数是中质和重质酸性原油。因此，作为加拿大出口商，我们在整体价格水平以及更好的价差或贴水方面都受益。 挑战在于，我认为这场危机持续的时间越长，我越感到警惕，正如 Heather 所说，我非常警惕。我不认为这仅仅是衰退性的，我认为这是**选择性的**（discretionary）。如果这种情况持续下去，我认为这就是为什么我**看不到它会持久**。但即使在高油价的情况下，如果这场危机蔓延成为全球经济灾难，加拿大也会因全球经济痛苦而受损，而目前看起来确实如此。
Original English >> I think in the initial term, absolutely. I think what we're already seeing with Brent prices, you know, we're currently at about $110 a barrel. WCS differentials are the discount borne by Western Canadian Select barrels, our main heavy sour export. They have actually been under pressure earlier this year following the kidnapping and kind of regime change in Venezuela following the kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro, the re-entry of those Venezuelan heavy sour barrels similar to our own, was weighing on Gulf Coast discounts. But basically what's happened through the Iran war already is. In two weeks, that discount has been entirely erased again. And the reason for this is that the majority of barrels coming out of the Middle East, coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, are medium to heavy sour barrels. So we are benefiting as Canadian exporters, both on the kind of overall price level as well as a better differential or discount. The challenge is, is I think the longer this goes on, I'm pretty alarmed, as Heather was saying, I'm very alarmed. And I don't think this is just recessionary. I think this is discretionary. If this continues for as long as it could. And I think that's why I can't I can't see this lasting. But even in a scenario of higher oil prices, Canada will hurt from the economic pain globally if this does spread into a global economic catastrophe, which is which is where it's looking like it's going right now.
**Heather Exner Pacheedaht**, 当我们谈论此刻因局势而受损的国家时，我们可以看看亚洲的**中国**、**印度**、**斯里兰卡**等国。但我想稍微关注一下加拿大与中国之间新建立的关系。例如，我想知道，中东的供应中断对这些关系意味着什么？对加拿大与中国以及其他亚洲国家的关系是怎样影响的？
Original English >> Heather, when we talk about countries that are hurting right now because of this situation, we can look to countries in Asia, China, India, Sri Lanka, other nations. But I want to focus a little bit on Canada's sort of new forged relationships with China. For example, I am curious, what does this supply disruption in the Middle East mean for these relationships for Canada, say, amongst China and other Asian countries?
**Heather Exner Pacheedaht**: 是的。所以 Rory 说的是对的，这正在伤害每个人。加拿大消费者不会从中受益。但如果说有哪个国家可能从中获益，在中长期来看，我认为是**加拿大**。**俄罗斯**可能也有一些机会。原因在于，我们是一个巨大的石油和天然气出口国。我们目前在一定程度上能够从西海岸出口。我们希望从东海岸出口更多的石油，并通过墨西哥湾运输。所以我们有很多运输渠道。 显而易见，**卡尼**（Carney）一直非常专注于改善与亚洲的联盟关系。他去过日本、印度和中国。能源显然是这些讨论的重点。铀也在议程上，但主要是石油、天然气和液化石油气（LPG）。如果你是那些买家之一，并且已经开始考虑加拿大，那么，我们的品牌形象只会越来越好。你可能会赋予这种**可靠性**、这种**加拿大选择权**的溢价正在提高。 我认为这很有帮助。例如，随着我们扩大**跨山输油管道**（Trans Mountain）以便亚洲买家能够消化我们能通过那里运送的过剩产量，我认为这可能有助于最终促成**LNG Canada**（加拿大液化天然气项目）的投资决定。总的来说，我认为人们可能会，如果你能有选择权，而加拿大现在是一个选项，我认为这对几乎所有人来说都很有吸引力。
Original English >> Yeah. So Rory's right that this is hurting everyone. Canadian consumers will not benefit from this. But if any country is looking like it may be a winner, you know, in the medium and long term out of this, I think it's Canada. Russia might have some claim to that as well. But the reason for that is that we are an enormous oil and gas exporter. We are able to export off the West Coast now to some extent. We're looking to export more oil off the East Coast, and we ship through the Gulf of Mexico. So we have quite a lot of diversity where we can ship things through. Obviously, Carney has been very focused on improving those Asian alliances. He's been to Japan, India and China. Obviously, energy led those discussions. Uranium was also on the agenda, but it was very much oil, natural gas and LPG. And if you're one of those buyers and you're already thinking about Canada, well, we are. We just keep our brand keeps getting better and better. The premium that you might assign to that reliability, to that Canadian optionality is probably getting better. And I would say that helps. For example, as we're expanding Trans Mountain to get buyers in Asia to take off excess production that we could send through there, I think it probably helps get the final investment decision on LNG Canada, too, and LNG. And, and just overall, I think people may, you know, if you can have optionality and Canada is an option now, I think that would be attractive to just about everyone.
**Bob**, Heather 认为加拿大可能是一个赢家，但我想谈谈**基础设施**。加拿大有能力快速提高石油和天然气产量吗？我记得我们谈过管道问题，我们是否有足够的管道？加拿大能做到吗？
Original English >> Bob. Heather says, you know, Canada is a potential winner here, but I want to talk about infrastructure. Does Canada have the ability to ramp up oil and gas production quickly? I know we talked about, you know, pipelines as well. Whether we have enough of that or not. Can we do this?
**Bob**: 不，不。美国将是**最好的客户**。几乎所有的原油都会运往那里，因为管道都通往那里。它们进入美国中部地区，美国中部地区的炼油厂会消化这些原油，而且是可靠的。每天都完美运行。加拿大需要的是另一条更大的**西海岸管道**，这样他们就可以出口原油，主要出口到**中国**。当然，也会有原油运往**日本**和**韩国**。现在也有相当一部分原油运往**加利福尼亚**和西海岸。但他们需要一条更大的管道。建造一条更大的管道，生产者就会增加产量。就是这么简单。 但**融资这条管道**并非易事。建造管道将是世界建筑史上的一个奇迹。这并不容易，路途遥远，而且还有**落基山脉**横亘在中间。但它是可以做到的。但这需要大量的资金和承诺。
Original English >> No, no. The US will be the best customer. And as we're almost all the barrels will go, that's where the pipelines go at this point. They go into the mid continent and the they the refineries, US refineries in Mid-Continent soak up that crude oil and it's reliable. It moves every day perfectly. What Canada needs is another, larger pipeline to the West Coast, where they can export barrels to basically to China. But there'll also be barrels that would go to Japan and South Korea also. Now barrels actually go to a large degree to California and the West Coast also. But they need a bigger pipe, build a bigger pipe and the producer will add more barrels. They will increase production. It's as simple as that. But financing that pipe is no easy task. And building the pipe would be an architectural wonder of the world. It's not easy. It's pretty long ways. And you got the Rocky Mountains in the way too. But it can be done. But it costs a lot of money and you need that kind of commitment.
**Heather**, 我想让你回应一下 Bob 的观点。
Original English >> Heather, I'll get you. Get you in on a response to Bob there.
**Heather Exner Pacheedaht**: 嗯，Bob 说得完全正确。我们有**跨山输油管道的扩建**。显而易见的客户是亚洲。这很可能会发生。那大约能输送 36 万桶。所以这是我们目前关注的重点。液化天然气（LNG）与石油是不同的。我们都想要那条**西北海岸石油管道**。但正如 Bob 所说，去美国更容易。而且我们还为新的西北海岸石油管道项目附加了一个 200 亿美元的**碳捕获项目**，这使得该项目在融资和工程难度之上，成功的可能性更小了。 所以，你已经看到了实际发生的情况是，生产商正寻求向南（美国）运输更多原油。**恩布里奇（Enbridge）**正在扩建其主管道，对其进行优化。现在，**基斯通 XL 管道**（Keystone XL）也似乎有了复苏的迹象。所以，你知道，石油正在寻找最短、最顺畅的路线，而大部分路线恰好是通往美国。
Original English >> Well, I mean, Bob's absolutely right. So we have the expansion of Trans Mountain. The obvious customers for those are in Asia. That's likely to happen. That would probably be about 360,000 barrels. So that's what we're focused on now. LNG is a bit of a different story than oil. We all want that Northwest Coast oil pipeline. But to Bob's point, it's easier to go to the United States. And also we've attached a $20 billion carbon capture project to a new Northwest Coast oil pipeline, which on top of the financing and the engineering difficulties, makes that more of a long shot. And so you have seen that what is actually happening in real time is producers are looking to send more south. Enbridge is expanding its main line, optimizing it. And now we're having the revival of Keystone XL. And so the, you know, oil is going in the shortest route and the smoothest route it can find. And most of that happens to be the United States.
**Rory**, 加拿大每天生产约 600 万桶石油，并在全国拥有十几个炼油厂。是什么阻止了这个国家在**使用我们自己的石油和天然气产品**（如生产汽油或柴油）方面实现自给自足？
Original English >> Rory, Canada produces about 6 million barrels of oil a day and has a dozen refineries across the country. What is preventing this country from being self-sufficient when it when it comes to using our own oil and gas products, like making gasoline or diesel?
**Rory Johnston**: 是的。所以，事实上，我曾与 Heather 在 Macdonald-laurier Institute 合作撰写了一份关于加拿大炼油自给自足问题的报告。作为一个整体国家，我们实际生产的燃料总量大致等于我们消耗的总量。挑战在于，例如，我们东海岸的一些炼油厂无法获得在加拿大西部生产的原油。这就是我们最初争论**能源东输管道**（Energy East pipeline）的原因，该管道将连接国内东西两岸。我们曾在很久以前就看到了 **TC Energy 的主干线**连接天然气的情况。现在，你也需要这些。 挑战在于**经济效益**。正如 Heather 所说，南下（美国）总是更便宜。我认为，当人们抱怨过度依赖美国市场时，他们会认为是政府的失败。我则认为恰恰相反。我认为，如果放任私营部门自行发展，这就是他们会做的事情。如果我们想要选择权，想要**东部加拿大的能源安全**，并希望有**西部出口的选择权**（例如，直接服务于印度市场，而目前我们只能通过转售给美国墨西哥湾沿岸来做到这一点），这就需要那条更昂贵的西北海岸石油管道，而我坚信如果仅由私营部门负责，它将不会建成。它将需要政府的资金。这是只有政府才能纳入的战略要素。私营部门无法衡量其价值。
Original English >> Yeah. So Canada, actually, I wrote a I wrote a report with Heather at the Macdonald-laurier Institute specifically on this question of Canadian refining sufficiency. And as a country overall, we actually roughly refine as much fuels as we consume. The challenge is, is that, for instance, some of our, our refineries on the East Coast can't get access to the crude oil produced, you know, in Western Canada. This is where we initially had arguments for things like the Energy East pipeline that would connect the two sides of the country. We saw this with the TC energy main line connecting in gas. You know, a very, very long time ago. Now this is what you would need as well. The challenge is economics. It's always going to be cheaper to Heather's point to go south, it's always going to be cheaper. And I think when people bemoan the over dependence on the US market, they kind of say it's a government failure. I would argue the opposite. I would say that this is what the private sector is going to do if left to its own devices. If we do want the optionality, if we want the energy security in Eastern Canada, and we want the optionality of westward exports, you know, for instance, servicing the Indian market directly, which currently we can only service through Re-exports to the US Gulf Coast, that's going to require this much more expensive northwest Coast oil pipeline that I fundamentally believe will not be built if left only to the private sector. It will need government money. And that's a strategic element that only government can incorporate. The private sector can't value that.
**Bob**, 我希望你能帮我们揭开一些内幕。我很想知道，当加拿大石油高管们看到中东的混乱局面时，他们现在在董事会里都在谈论些什么？
Original English >> Bob, I'm hoping you can help pull the curtain a little bit. I'm curious, what do you think Canadian oil executives are talking about right now in boardrooms, as they are watching sort of the chaos in the Middle East right now.
**Bob**: 他们最关心的是 WCS 和 WTI 之间的**价差**。他们希望看到这个价差缩小，让加拿大原油更具吸引力。这样他们才能最大化未来的产量。在委内瑞拉局势之后，这个价差确实缩小了。委内瑞拉局势非常负面。对加拿大来说，那是最糟糕的场景。然后总统（特朗普）大肆宣传，好像这是解决所有重质原油问题的办法。这实际上把市场压到了一个**人为的低位**。换句话说，加拿大人有点被“宰了”。价格太便宜了。没人会用那些委内瑞拉的原油来代替加拿大原油。 美国炼油商想要加拿大原油。它在政治上稳定，按时交货，没有不可抗力（force majeure）的风险。这是一个梦想市场。但对加拿大人来说，这**不应该是 -16 美元/桶的市场**。他们应该得到更好的待遇，Somewhere around -11 -13。而这正是生产商目前正在关注的。他们希望市场能稳定在那个范围内。
Original English >> They're most concerned about the differential between WCS and WTI. They want to see that spread narrow and the Canadian barrel become more attractive. That's how they will maximise the their production going forward from here. So that did narrow after the Venezuelan situation. Venezuelan situation was very negative. Canada, that was worst possible scenario. And then the president talked it up as if it was a solution to all these heavy barrels. And that was that actually drilled the market down to an artificially low level. In other words, the Canadians were getting kind of ripped off a little bit. The price was too cheap. Nobody's going to take those Venezuelan barrels instead of Canadian barrels. The US refiner wants Canadian barrels. It's it's politically stable there on time. There's no chance of force majeure. It's a dream market. But it's for the Canadians defence. It's not a -$16 market. They deserve better than that. Somewhere around -11 -13. And that's what the producer right now is looking at. And he wants to see the market settle into that range.
**Rory**, 我很好奇。我想回到中东。你认为我们有足够的信息来评估**当前石油供应**的真实情况吗？是不是有什么我们遗漏了？
Original English >> Rory, I am curious. I want to get back to the Middle East. Do you think we have enough information to gauge what is really happening with oil supply right now? Is there something that perhaps we are missing?
**Rory Johnston**: 我认为部分挑战在于，我认为有些脱节，因为我认为**期货市场**（作为例子）非常非常**波动**，并且可以说已经滞后于许多分析师（包括我自己）认为的石油应有价格，鉴于我认为**警惕的程度是合理的**。但我们在过去几周看到的是，白宫、特朗普、财政部长、能源部长等的**口头干预**或“看跌”石油市场。这些都像给这些头寸泼了冷水。 我们看到了令人瞩目的表现，就在两个星期一之前，我们在盘中看到了 35 美元的价差。许多交易员因此爆仓。我认为在**实物市场**面前，大家都在**犹豫**是否要承担过多风险。但我现在正在看我的屏幕。**迪拜海岸附近的现金原油**，基于阿曼湾，目前交易价格为**每桶 170 美元**。这是我们即将面临的价格类型，就像一波冲击波向外扩散。这将需要时间，并且我们看到它首先影响到布伦特原油，然后才影响到 WTI。所有这些事物，最终这些原油在一定程度上是**可替代的**。市场将变得更加统一。我们仍处于这次冲击的**非常非常早期阶段**。
Original English >> I think part of the challenge, I think some of the disconnect, because I think the futures markets, as an example here have been very, very volatile and arguably have lagged where many analysts like myself think that the price of oil should be given the level of alarm that I think is justified. But what we've seen over the past couple of weeks is that the jawboning or kind of talking down of the conditions in the oil market by the white House, by Trump, by the Treasury secretary, energy secretary, right. These have all kind of taken the wind out of these out of these positions. We saw this in remarkable fashion two Mondays ago when we saw $35 barrel spread intraday for these prices. Many traders got blown out. And I think there's a wariness to get too long ahead of physical markets here. But I'm just looking at my screen right now. Cash crude right now off the coast of Dubai, based on the Omani Gulf, is currently trading at $170 a barrel. That's the type of prices that we are going to see coming towards us, and it's like a shock wave rippling out. It's going to take time and we're seeing it hit Brent before we're seeing it hit WTI, all of these things. But eventually these are fungible barrels to a degree. The market will become more uniform. We're still in just the very, very early stages of this shock.
**Heather**, 你有最后发言的机会。如果加拿大成为一个更具吸引力的石油和天然气来源，这是否意味着我们将看到更多的**外国或国内投资**？
Original English >> Heather you get the last word here. If Canada does become a more attractive source of oil and gas, does that mean we will see more foreign or domestic investment to follow?
**Heather Exner Pacheedaht**: 嗯，绝对会的。我想说，自年初以来，**油砂生产商**的股价远远超过了标准普尔 500 指数，甚至超过了能源生产商的平均水平。所以，**加拿大油砂**看起来非常有吸引力。人们赌它在未来几年会有不错的表现。我认为现在是时候了。我们还在谈判那个谅解备忘录（MOU）。我们还需要整理一下加拿大的国内事务，比如**工业碳税**会是多少？我们这边还有很多不确定性，再加上全球市场的变化。我希望我们能尽快振作起来，这样生产商就能开始做出投资决策，管道公司也能做出投资决策，我们就能规划出加拿大在短期、中期，然后希望也能在长期内可以做些什么。
Original English >> Well, absolutely. And I'll say, you know, one thing, since the beginning of the year, oil sands producers, their stock prices have far exceeded, you know, the S&P 500. But even the average, the average of energy producers. And so oil sands Canadian oil is looking very attractive. People are betting that it's going to have a good couple of years. And I think now is the time. You know, we're still negotiating that MOU. There's still some of our own house to get an order in Canada. What will be the industrial carbon price? A lot of uncertainty on our own side to, you know, to be topped off with what's happening in global markets. I hope we get our act together very quickly so that producers can start making those investment decisions. Pipeline companies can make their investment decisions, and we can plot out what is it that Canada can be doing in the short and medium and then hopefully long term as well.
**Bob**, **Rory**, **Heather**，非常感谢你们的真知灼见。
Original English >> All right. We are going to have to leave it there. I'm probably not going to have all of that information on my computer like Rory does or Bob does all the time. But it's a story that we, of course, are going to continue to follow. Bob, Rory, Heather, really appreciate your insights. Thank you.