--- author: TVO Today date: '2026-03-10' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOnWoIjtENw speaker: TVO Today tags: - us-sanctions - cuban-sovereignty - belt-and-road-initiative - caricom - geopolitical-influence title: 古巴面临困境与地区影响 summary: 本次讨论深入分析了古巴当前面临的严峻经济社会挑战，包括大范围停电和物资短缺，主要归因于美国的侵略性政策和制裁。与会者 Julio Fonseca 和 Tom Sajjan 强调了古巴人民的韧性与自决权。此外，会议探讨了中国通过‘一带一路’倡议在加勒比地区日益增长的影响力，并将其与美国的参与进行对比。同时，还审视了加共体（Caricom）的复杂立场及其成员国对古巴问题的不同回应，并提到了古巴医疗援助任务及进步发展模式。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: geopolitics area: geopolitics project: [] people: - Julio Fonseca - Tom Sajjan - Miguel Diaz-Canel - Marco Rubio - Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro - Irfaan Ali - Kamla Persad-Bissessar companies_orgs: - Canadian Network on Cuba - Association of Cubans in Toronto - York University - Caricom products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 对话开端与古巴困境 **Host**: 很高兴请到你们两位。近况如何？
Original English **Host**: Great to have you both on the program. How are you doing?
**Guest 1**: 谢谢。
Original English **Guest 1**: Thank you.
**Guest 2**: 谢谢，感谢邀请。
Original English **Guest 2**: Thank you, thank you for having us.
**Host**: 好的，Leo，我先问你。你在古巴有家人。我们了解到那里有停电、断电的情况。你能联系上他们吗？最近有消息吗？
Original English **Host**: All right, Leo, I'm going to start with you. You have family in Cuba. We understand there are blackouts. Power outages. Are you able to reach them? Have you been in touch?
**Julio Fonseca**: 是的，我实际上每天在不同时段都和他们保持联系。有时候我尝试在早上给他们打电话，但他们的手机充不了电，因为他们经历了停电。但下午我肯定能和他们通话，他们的健康状况。他们都很好，但他们和其他所有古巴人一样，正经历着这些轮流停电、短缺和日常面临的困难。根本问题是由于**美国**的侵略性政策引起的，这对古巴来说并不新鲜。这种情况已经持续了 67 年。所以古巴人习惯了短缺和抵抗。但世界竟然对此**种族灭绝**保持沉默，**美国**这种承诺要让整个**人口**屈服的沉默种族灭绝，这是不可想象的。这对古巴人来说完全不公平，而且非常令人难过。
Original English **Julio Fonseca**: Yes, I am actually in touch with them every day at different hours. Sometimes I try to call them in the morning, but their phones are not recharged because they have had had blackout. But then in the afternoon I certainly talk to them and they are health wise. They are fine, but they're going like all other Cubans through this rolling blackouts, shortages and difficulties that they are facing on an everyday basis. Basically problems that are induced because of the aggressive policy of the United States, which for Cuba is not new. It is it's been like this for 67 years. So Cubans are used to shortages and to resist. But it is inconceivable that the world is silent or in front of this genocide, silent genocide of the United States, which has promised to submit the whole population into submission. Totally unfair and really sad for the Cubans.
**Host**: 我想听听你的看法。周末**特朗普**说古巴“命悬一线”。**古巴**总统是**米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔 (Miguel Díaz-Canel)**。请解释一下他在古巴民众中有多大支持度？
Original English **Host**: Going to get you in here. Over the weekend, Trump said that Cuba is in its last moments of life. Now. Miguel Diaz-Canel is the president of Cuba. Help us understand what kind of support does he have among Cubans there?
**Tom Sajjan**: 我认为**古巴**的政府仍然相当受欢迎，这就是为什么**美国**会采取这种策略，试图迫使**整个人口**屈服，以便人民起来反抗政府。**美国**几十年来在**古巴**的政权更迭尝试之所以没有成功，正是因为古巴人民受过教育，他们清楚是谁在（你知道的）给他们的国家制造了许多问题。而当**唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump)** 发表这样的言论时，古巴人民会认识到这是对其**主权**的侵犯，这与我们在**委内瑞拉**和**伊朗**看到的现象类似。
Original English **Tom Sajjan**: I think that the government in Cuba is still quite popular, which is why the United States has resorted to this tactic of trying to force the entire population into submission so that the people revolt against the government. Part of the reason that US regime change in Cuba hasn't worked for decades is precisely because the Cuban people are educated, they're conscious of who is, you know, causing a lot of problems in their country. And when Donald Trump's make calls like that, the Cuban people Recognize that it's an infringement on their sovereignty, similar to what we're seeing happening in Venezuela and also in Iran.
**Julio Fonseca**: Julio，我也想听听你的看法。这种支持看起来是什么样的？
Original English **Julio Fonseca**: Julio, I'll get your take on that as well. What's that support look like?
**Julio Fonseca**: 嗯，显然，如果**全体人民**不想要一个政府，他们就会推翻它。古巴并非如此。古巴人会批评政府，也会批评政府过去犯下的错误，但他们非常清楚罪魁祸首是谁。再说一遍，这没什么新鲜的。**美国**这样做已经很多年，几十年了。他们总是声称**古巴人民**反对政府，应该有一股良善的力量前来解放他们。古巴在 1959 年已经获得解放。古巴人不需要别的。古巴现在唯一需要的是解除**封锁**和针对我们家庭的**制裁**。这才是**古巴**现在唯一需要的。而政府正面临一个非常困难的时刻，可能比我们历史上任何时候都要艰难。他们正努力尽力满足**人口**的需求。但显然，由于他们目前面临的这些问题，在很多情况下是不可能的。但古巴人是清楚的，古巴人清楚，他们真的受够了**制裁**和**封锁**，以及**美国**试图决定他们的未来。他们希望我们放弃**自决**的原则。嗯，这永远不会发生。
Original English **Julio Fonseca**: Well, obviously, if the whole population doesn't want a government they will do away with it. And this is not the case of Cuba. The Cubans speak critically about the the government and errors that the government has made in the past, but they are very well aware of who is the culprit here. And again, it's nothing new. The United States has been doing this for years, for decades. And they always claim that the Cuban people is against the government and there should be a force of good to come and liberate them. Cuba was liberated in 1959. Cubans do not need anything else. The only thing that Cubans need is the lifting of this blockade and the sanctions against our families. That is the only thing Cuba needs right now. And the government is facing a very difficult moment, probably like never before in our history. And they are trying to do the best they can to satisfy the needs of the population. But obviously because of this problems that they are facing right now, in many cases it's not possible. But the Cubans are aware, Cubans are aware and they are really fed up with the sanctions and the blockade and the attempt of the United States to determine to decide their future. And they want us to to do away with our principle of self-determination. Well, it will never happen.
### 中国影响力与地区动态 **Host**: 好的。我想介入一下。我想谈谈**影响力**。我们谈论**美国**，但我想谈谈**中国**。十个加勒比国家是中国“**一带一路**”倡议的一部分，加勒比国家之间的贸易。以及**中国**的崛起。**中国**在该地区日益增长的**影响力**与我们现在看到的**美国**的行动有多大关系？
Original English **Host**: All right. I want to get in here. I want to talk about influence. We talk about the United States, but I actually want to talk about China. Ten Caribbean nations are part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, and trade between Caribbean nations. And China is rising. How much does China's growing influence in the region have to do with what we're seeing with the US right now in their actions?
**Tom Sajjan**: 是的。所以**美国**对**中国**的发展非常担忧。它想给**中国**的发展设置上限。我认为，然而，就**加勒比地区**而言，**美国**阻止各国与**中国**进行贸易的策略似乎是邪恶的。因为**美国**在**加勒比地区**的**发展项目**上投入的力度不如**中国**。而且，尽管**中国**有这个‘**一带一路**’倡议，一些国家已经签署了，但**中国**对大多数加勒比国家来说仍然是一个非常小的贸易伙伴。我的意思是，大多数加勒比国家与**中国**的贸易额只占其 GDP 的 2% 或更少。而对于**美国**来说，由于大量的加勒比**侨民**生活在美国、加拿大和欧洲，大多数加勒比贸易都与这些国家进行。我们**侨民**喜爱独特的加勒比产品。所以，真正发生的是**美国**不想让**中国**在全球**影响力**方面取得任何进展，而在**加勒比地区**，这显得不合情理，因为**加勒比地区**并非**中国**影响力的主要据点。我认为，我们真正需要的是**加勒比国家**减少对**美国**的依赖，正是因为**美国**已经表明它不关心**自决**或**主权**。它甚至会轰炸这些国家，在海上轰炸渔民，而得不到任何国际谴责。所以人们会问这些问题，但各国仍然害怕，因为**美国**是一个使用军事力量对抗他们的主要大国。
Original English **Tom Sajjan**: Yeah. So the US is very concerned about China's development. It wants to place a cap on China's development. I think that when it comes to the Caribbean region, however, the sort of US tactics to basically stop states from engaging in trade with China comes off as nefarious. Since the US is not invested in development projects in the Caribbean the same way that China has. And also, even though China has this Belt and Road initiative that some states have signed on to, China is still a very small trading partner to most Caribbean states. What I mean by this is most Caribbean states only have 2% or less of their trade with China actually registering in their GDP. Whereas for the United States, since a large Caribbean diaspora lives in the United States and Canada and in Europe, most Caribbean trading is with those countries. Since us in the diaspora, we love the niche sort of Caribbean products. And so what's really happening is that the US doesn't want China to make any headway in terms of global influence at all, and in the Caribbean it comes off as irrational, since the Caribbean is not a stronghold of China's influence. I think what we need, though, is for the Caribbean countries to be less dependent on the United States, precisely because the United States has shown it doesn't care about self-determination or sovereignty. It is not above bombing these countries, bombing fishermen in the ocean, and not receiving any sort of international outrage. And so people are asking these questions, but states are still scared, since the United States is a major power that is using military force against them.
**Host**: 好的。说了这些，Julio，据报道，**美国**国务卿**马尔科·卢比奥 (Marco Rubio)** 正在与**菲德尔·卡斯特罗 (Fidel Castro)** 兄弟的孙子**劳尔·吉列尔莫·罗德里格斯·卡斯特罗 (Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro)** 进行谈判。你能告诉我们关于这位年轻的劳尔的情况和他（在古巴）有多大支持度吗？
Original English **Host**: All right. With that being said, Julio, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reported to be negotiating with Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, who is the grandson of Fidel Castro's brother. What can you tell us about the younger Raul and the kind of support he has in Cuba?
**Julio Fonseca**: 嗯，我不太了解这位年轻的劳尔。我见过他几次。他是他祖父的**个人安保**、**个人安保团队**的成员。我不知道，**古巴**一再表示并否认有任何对话正在进行。所以我不是政府成员。我不知道。但**古巴**说了“不”。所以他们声称他们有接触，而这个人，我不知道。我一无所知。我们得问问**古巴政府**。
Original English **Julio Fonseca**: Well, I don't know very well this younger Raul. I've seen him a couple of times. He's part of the personal security, of the personal security detail of his grandfather. I don't know, Cuba has repeatedly said and denied that there are any conversations going on. So I am not part of the government. I don't know that. But Cuba has said no. So they claim that they are in touch and with this person, I don't know. I have no idea. We will have to ask the Cuban government.
**Host**: 我想听听你的看法。我们对年轻的劳尔了解多少？41 岁，不是那个 94 岁的老人，显然是祖父，很多人知道他已经退休但仍然在国家中有很大的话语权。
Original English **Host**: I want to get your take on that. Do we know much about the younger Raul, 41 years old, not the 94 year old, obviously the grandfather who many you know is retired but still has a lot of say in the country.
**Tom Sajjan**: 我想说，我**高度怀疑**这属于**美国**的那种叙事，关于他们为了支持而与人交谈。我之所以高度怀疑，是因为他们也声称在**伊朗**有支持者可以“煽动革命”，但这并没有发生。**美国**经常夸大其与那些它进行过干预的国家中的人的接触次数。所以，我不想推测**美国**关于与政府中某人交谈或不交谈的说法，因为很多时候，事实证明并非如此。所以，我不想声称某人正在与**美国**进行谈判，而这仅仅是不真实的。但我**高度怀疑**这种情况会发生，尤其如果他是他祖父安保团队的一员。
Original English **Tom Sajjan**: So I would say that I highly doubt this is the sort of us narratives in terms of them talking to people for support. And the reason why I highly doubt that is they also claim to have support to sort of spark a revolution in Iran, and that has not happened. The US is frequently overstating the amount of times that it's been in contact with people in these countries that they have carried out interventions. And and so I don't want to sort of speculate on sort of US claims of talking to someone in the government or not talking to someone in the government, because more often than not, it's borne out to not be true. And so I wouldn't want to claim someone is in talks with the United States and then it's just not true. But I highly doubt that that would be the case, especially if he is a part of the security detail of his grandfather. Still.
### 进步发展与地区互助 **Host**: 好的。我想跟进一下。你谈到了**加勒比地区**所谓的**进步发展**。我想更好地理解**古巴的主权**与我们所说的、你所说的**进步发展**之间的联系。
Original English **Host**: All right. I want to follow up with you. You talk about what's called progressive development in the Caribbean region. And I want to better understanding what's the connection between Cuban sovereignty and what we call what you call progressive development.
**Tom Sajjan**: 是的。所以**进步发展**最大的一个方面是它对**本地需求**的响应程度。许多加勒比国家专注于发展，你知道，会创造产业，但这些产业很大程度上是**掠夺性**的，它们将大部分利润汇回**加勒比地区**以外，所以当地人得不到好处。所以当我们看**旅游业**时。**旅游业**在技术上被认为是一种**掠夺性**产业，它从当地社区获取，而不是回馈当地社区。然而，尽管这是大多数从事旅游业的加勒比国家的发展趋势，但在**古巴**并非如此。所以当你去**古巴**旅游时，你住酒店，你参与的服务会回馈给政府，然后政府就能利用这些旅游收入向该国的公共职能和服务进行公共分配，比如垃圾处理、**公共交通**等等。而且**古巴**因此拥有**加勒比地区**最好的**公共交通系统**，这是当地人需要的，依赖的。所以当我谈论**进步发展**时，我指的是一个国家的发展对满足**当地人口**需求的影响，而不是去富裕那些不住在这个国家的人，而这正是**旅游业**和其他加勒比国家的方式。
Original English **Tom Sajjan**: Yes. And so one of the biggest aspects of progressive development is how responsive it is to local needs. A lot of Caribbean countries focussed on development that, you know, creates industries, but those industries are largely extractive and they repatriate a lot of their profits outside of the Caribbean so that locals do not benefit. And so when we look at something like the tourism industry. Tourism is technically regarded as an industry that is extractive and that takes away from local communities instead of giving back to them. However, even though that is the trend throughout most Caribbean countries that engage in tourism, it's not the case in Cuba. So when you engage in tourism in Cuba, you're staying at a hotel and you're engaged in services that pay back to the government, and the government is then able to use those tourism funds to publicly distribute it to public functions and services in the country, like trash, like public transportation and all of those things. And Cuba has the best public transportation system in the Caribbean region because of that, that locals need and depend and rely on. And so when I talk about progressive development, I'm talking about the impact that developments in the country have to meet the needs of the local population versus enriching people who don't live in the country, which is how tourism and other Caribbean countries are done.
**Julio Fonseca**: Julio，请解释一下**古巴**在**加勒比**和**拉丁美洲**邻国眼中是如何被看待的？
Original English **Julio Fonseca**: Julio, help us understand how is Cuba viewed by its Caribbean and Latin American neighbours?
**Julio Fonseca**: 嗯，自**革命胜利**以来，**古巴**政府一直将**加勒比**视为他们的兄弟姐妹。即使**古巴**拥有的很少，也与**加勒比**社区分享了它的一切。**古巴**派出了**医生**和**护士**。**古巴**派出了**技术人员**、**教师**等等，前往这些国家。**古巴**一直非常、非常开放地致力于**团结**和帮助**加勒比**，因为我们视**加勒比**为我们自己的**家庭**，我们就是**家庭**，无论语言和文化有何差异，我们都是一家人。这就是**古巴**对**加勒比**的看法。
Original English **Julio Fonseca**: Well, since the triumph of the Revolution, the government of Cuba has viewed the Caribbean as their brothers and sisters. Even Cuba, with the very little it has, has shared everything with the Caribbean community. Cuba has sent help with doctors and nurses. Cuba has sent technicians, teachers, etc. to every one of these countries. Cuba has been very, very open to solidarity and to help the Caribbean because we see the Caribbean as our own family, as we are family, that regardless of the linguistic differences and cultural differences, we are one family. And that is the view from Cuba towards the Caribbean.
**Tamisha**: Tamisha，我也来谈谈。
Original English **Tamisha**: Tamisha I'll get your take on that as well.
**Tamisha**: 是的，我同意。我家人来自**圭亚那**，住在该国**内陆地区**，长久以来，至今仍然如此，**圭亚那**的**内陆发展**不如**沿海地区**。所以我的家人受益于**古巴医生**的到来，他们愿意前往**内陆**提供医疗服务。**加勒比地区**也是如此，尤其是在许多**政府机构**缺乏足够**能力**或**资源**去触及人民的**偏远地区**。所以，当**古巴医疗任务**受到攻击，被指控进行**人口贩运**或**奴役**，这完全是谎言，结果是**最脆弱的加勒比人民**最终受苦。我认为，我们有许多政府在**虚假地**迎合**美国**的说法，称**古巴医疗任务**是**人口贩运**或**奴役**，因为这些政府中的许多并不关心进一步**弱化**或**边缘化**国内本已脆弱的**人口**。
Original English **Tamisha**: Yes, I agree with that. So my family is from Guyana and they live in the interior of the country, and for a long time, and still continuing to this day, there is not as much interior development in Guyana as there is on sort of the coastal areas. And so my family has benefited from having Cuban doctors who were willing to go into the interior to provide them with medical services. And this is the same throughout the Caribbean, especially in many rural areas where the government institutions just don't have the strength or the capacity to reach people. And so when Cuban medical missions are brigaded and said, like, oh, they're engaged in human trafficking or slavery, which is just false, what ends up happening is that the most vulnerable Caribbean people end up suffering. And I think that we have a lot of governments falsely toeing the line of the United States to say that Cuban medical missions are human trafficking or slavery, because many of these governments don't care about further vulnerable or marginalising already vulnerable populations within their countries.
### Caricom 的角色与未来 **Host**: 我想谈谈该地区**盟友**可以做什么。我们有**加勒比共同体**，也称为 **Caricom**。这是一个由 15 个国家组成的集团，旨在促进该地区的合作。**古巴**不是成员，但与**Caricom**有经济协议。它的成员国目前正在给予**古巴**什么样的支持？
Original English **Host**: I want to talk about sort of what's sort of the allies can do in that region. We have the Caribbean Community, also known as Caricom. It's a bloc of 15 states that promotes cooperation in the region. Cuba is not a member but does have economic agreements with Caricom. What kind of support are its members giving to Cuba right now?
**Tamisha**: 所以**Caricom**一直由较小的**加勒比国家**组成，它成立为一个**组织**，以便他们能够就**外交**和**经济政策**进行协作和合作，这样他们就不会相互竞争，也不会进一步**分裂**。尽管**古巴**不是成员，但在 1972 年**Caricom**成立时，**Caricom**实际上采取了与**美国**相对立的立场，**美国**希望**加勒比国家**孤立**古巴**，但**Caricom**说不，我们今天不会孤立我们的兄弟姐妹。现在我们看到**美国**试图进一步**分裂** **Caricom**，主要是通过最初的**牙买加**、**特立尼达和多巴哥**以及**圭亚那**，但**牙买加**的情况较少，因为**牙买加**呼吁与**古巴**进行**外交**。所以现在你看到**美国**甚至进一步**分裂**这个**共同体**，与**圭亚那**和**特立尼达和多巴哥**达成了一项新的**安全协议**，**圭亚那**和**特立尼达和多巴哥**的**总理**，**圭亚那**总统是**欧尔凡·阿里 (Irfaan Ali)**，**特立尼达和多巴哥**的总理是**卡姆拉·佩萨德-比塞萨尔 (Kamla Persad-Bissessar)**。他们采取了非常**敌对**和**侵略性**的立场来对抗**古巴**，实际上支持**美国**要求**政权更迭**的呼吁，令人沮丧的是，**加勒比共同体**的其他成员国对此保持沉默，而且有一种恐惧，如果其中任何一个国家站出来说话或把自己标榜为英雄，他们就会面临**美国的制裁**，这正是**牙买加**仅仅呼吁与**古巴**进行**外交**而不是**政权更迭**，或者进去试图轰炸和杀害人们时所遭受的威胁。所以现在，**加勒比地区**一直处于令人沮丧的沉默之中。然而，**公民社会组织**和新团体正在形成，呼吁他们的国家成为**反帝国主义**者，所以我们只能希望，正是来自人民的压力才能改变这些**政府**的政策，以便他们能够站出来**捍卫**在过去 60 多年里一直向他们表示**声援**的**古巴人民**。
Original English **Tamisha**: So Caricom has always been comprised of the smaller Caribbean countries, and it was formed as an Organization where they could collaborate and cooperate on foreign and economic policies so that they weren't competing against each other and being further fragmented, even though Cuba is not a member. In 1972, when Caricom was formed, Caricom actually took an oppositional stance to the United States that wanted the Caribbean countries to isolate Cuba and said, no, we will not isolate our brothers and sisters in Cuba today, we see the same sort of the US trying to fragment Caricom, namely through what was initially Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana, but less so Jamaica since Jamaica called for diplomacy with Cuba. So now you see the US even further fragmenting the community by entering a new security arrangement with Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago. The prime ministers there in Guyana, Irfaan Ali, the president, and Trinidad and Tobago, Kamla Persad-bissessar, the Prime Minister. They've taken very hostile and aggressive stances towards Cuba, actually supporting us calls for regime change and frustratingly, the other countries that are a part of the Caribbean Community, Caricom, have been quite silent on this, and there is a fear that if any one of them speaks up or brands itself as a hero, they will face sanction from the US, which was directly threatened by Jamaica simply calling for diplomacy with Cuba instead of regime change, or going in and trying to bomb and kill people. And so right now, the Caribbean has been frustratingly quiet. However, civil society organisations and new groups are forming, calling on their states to be anti-imperialist, and so we can only hope that it is the pressure that comes from the people that actually changes these governments policies, so that they do speak up in defence of the Cuban people that have shown them solidarity for over 60 years.
**Tamisha**: Tamisha Julio，我们实际上要到此为止了。我真的很感谢你在这方面的见解和你的热情，Julio。我当然祝愿你在古巴的家人一切顺利。非常感谢你的时间。
Original English **Tamisha**: Tamisha Julio, we are actually going to leave it there. I really appreciate your insights on this and your passion, Julio. I wish your family well, of course, who are in Cuba. Thank you so much for your time.
**Julio Fonseca**: 感谢邀请。
Original English **Julio Fonseca**: Thank you for having me.