--- author: Best Partners TV date: '2026-09-25' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvbK4V27Y1A speaker: Best Partners TV tags: - humanoid-robotics - autonomous-driving - large-language-model - reusable-rocketry - energy-infrastructure title: 专访埃隆·马斯克：从人形机器人、通用大模型到走向多行星物种 summary: 在特斯拉全球工程总部，埃隆·马斯克接受央视专访，深入剖析了特斯拉上海超级工厂的制造奇迹、Cybercab无人出租车的落地进程、Grok大模型在物理工程数据上的突破，以及中国在电力与算力基础设施上的巨大优势。马斯克预言十年内人形机器人数量将突破10亿，推动人类迈入物质极度丰裕时代，并阐述了星舰完全可重复使用对人类成为多行星物种的决定性意义。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: tech-trends area: tech-engineering project: [] people: [] companies_orgs: - Tesla - SpaceX - Anthropic - Neuralink products_models: - Cybercab - Optimus - Grok - Starship media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 访问中国与中国繁荣 **央视记者**: 非常感谢埃隆接受我们的采访，并欢迎我们来到**特斯拉全球工程总部**。在这里看到各种新技术的创新，以及这么多才华横溢的工程师，真是令人惊叹。
Original English **Interviewer**: Thank you so much Elon for joining me and also having us here at uh Tesla global engineer headquarters. It's so amazing to see kind of new technology innovations um all talented engineers here as well.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 谢谢。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Yes.
**央视记者**: 今年五月您也随代表团访问了中国，并且见到了**习近平主席**。作为一位领袖，习近平主席给您留下了怎样的印象？
Original English **Interviewer**: In this May you were also on the delegation to China as well. You have met with President Xi. What's your impression about President Xi as a leader?
**埃隆·马斯克**: 他看起来是一位非常卓越的领袖。在他的领导下，中国取得了极其巨大的繁荣。我是亲眼见证了这一切——如果你去中国看看，你会发现每一年之间、甚至一年之内所发生的进步之大。这种变化是非常直观可见的，比如你能看到新建的高楼大厦、崭新的基础设施。而且只要走在街上就能明显感觉到，普通中国民众的生活富裕程度得到了极其显著的提升。而这一切，都是在习近平主席领导中国的任期内实现的。所以，他显然做得非常出色，能力极强。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Well he seems like a great leader. I mean he's um under his tenure China has prospered immensely. I mean, I've seen it firsthand like you you if you visit China and you see the the amount of progress that happens from one year to the next or even within a year. Um you it's very visible like you can see the the new buildings, the new infrastructure and um and it's also obvious to see that just walking around the streets the increased prosperity of the average Chinese citizen has increased tremendously and that's all that's you it's happened under President Xi's you know while he's been the leader of China. So, so he's clearly done very, you know, done an excellent job and is very capable.
### 上海超级工厂与制造优势 **央视记者**: **特斯拉上海超级工厂**一直以来的表现都令人难以置信，您也多次由衷赞赏过您的团队。那么在您看来，究竟是什么样的优势或突破，让上海工厂在特斯拉的全球战略蓝图中占据了如此关键的地位？您认为这向全球市场展现了怎样的终极信心？
Original English **Interviewer**: Tesla Giga Factory Shanghai has always done a incredible job. You praise your teams many times. So, what kind of advantage or breakthroughs do you think that uh to making the Shanghai factory a very important position in Tesla's global blueprint and what ultimate kind of confidence do you think this will, you know, unfold uh especially in the market?
**埃隆·马斯克**: 中国在制造领域本身就拥有一种极其强大的内在禀赋。而且这不仅体现在当今时代，在过去两三千年里一直都是如此。坦率地说，我认为特斯拉上海工厂的奇迹，本质上就是因为中国人。（笑）
Original English **Elon Musk**: Well, I mean, China just has a very strong inherent ability to do manufacturing well. And this has been true not just in present days, but for the past 2 or 3,000 years. I think that to be totally frank, the magic of Tesla Shanghai is because of Chinese. [laughter]
**央视记者**: 摸着良心说，确实如此。
Original English **Interviewer**: To be totally honest,
**埃隆·马斯克**: 至少在中国是这样。
Original English **Elon Musk**: in China at least.
**央视记者**: 是的。
Original English **Interviewer**: Yes.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 我们所拥有的是——特斯拉中国团队不仅天赋异禀，而且极其勤劳、值得信赖。他们生产的产品质量卓越，生产效率也极其出众。所以特斯拉上海工厂堪称一块瑰宝。如果有谁亲自去过那里，就会发现它真的非常美丽。同时我们也非常注重关爱员工，确保他们享有优厚的医疗福利、美味可口的饭菜，并且真正热爱来这里上班，这一点非常重要。
Original English **Elon Musk**: We what we have is um the Tesla um China team is just incredibly talented uh and hardworking and trustworthy. Um and uh they have the quality is excellent and the efficiency is excellent. Um so the Tesla Shanghai factory is a is a gem. You know, it's it's and it's be it's beautiful actually if anyone's ever been there. Um, and we also care a lot about taking care of the workers and making sure that, you know, uh, they have good health care and good food and enjoy coming to work. It's very important.
### Cybercab与未来出行设计 **央视记者**: 确实如此。我想大家都能看得出来，上海工厂的员工们非常享受在那里工作。接下来我们聊聊最近的另一个热门话题：九月几乎可以被称为“**Cybercab**之月”。您看到那些视频了吗？所有人都围聚在它周围，传播得非常迅速。
Original English **Interviewer**: So, absolutely. I I I think we can tell like, oh, your stuff in Shanghai factory, they're very enjoying the working there. So, um, we're talking about next hot topic recently. We probably we can call September is the Cybercab month. Have you seen the videos like all the people gather around that? I guess it's this goes very very quickly. Yeah.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 我觉得这很酷，因为我们把这款车设计得极具未来感。从时尚美学的角度来看，我们不希望街道上的汽车美学一直停滞不前。我们希望推动汽车外观的演进。甚至我觉得服装也是如此——在五六十年代、七八十年代和九十年代，时尚演进得非常迅速，现在也该让事物看起来更有未来感了。（笑）
Original English **Elon Musk**: I mean, it's pretty cool cuz we designed the car to look futuristic cuz I think um you know, from a fashion standpoint, we don't we don't want uh the the aesthetics of the street to stay stagnant. We want to evolve the uh what what do cars look like? And also, I think maybe even clothing like we should be like there was there was rapid fashion evolution in the '50s, '60s, '70s, '80s, '90s. And it's probably time to uh make things look more futuristic. Yeah. [laughter]
**央视记者**: 那么您如何看待 Cybercab 的市场潜力？它看起来确实充满未来感，但究竟需要多久才能真正融入现实生活并商业化落地？
Original English **Interviewer**: And then how you see the kind of market potential for Cybercab you know it's it's it's like you know it's really futuristic but how long it can really come to the reality or real life?
**埃隆·马斯克**: 如大家所知，Cybercab 完全没有方向盘、脚踏板、侧后视镜或车内后视镜。目前它已经在得克萨斯州投入商业化运营，很快也将在佛罗里达州、内华达州等多个州展开商业运营，预计到明年年中左右，也可能在加利福尼亚州实现商业化运营。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Well, we have the Cybercab um which has as you know has no steering wheel or pedals or side mirrors or rearview mirror um operating uh commercially in Texas right now and it will soon be operating commercially in uh Florida and Nevada and a number of other states and probably by middle of next year it'll be operating commercially in in California.
### AI爆炸式迭代与物理工程数据 **央视记者**: 的确如此。我觉得所有的变化都在以惊人的速度发生，就好像我们每天都必须刷新社交媒体，才能跟上关于人工智能以及其他所有前沿科技领域的最新突破。
Original English **Interviewer**: Absolutely. I think all the changes uh is happening really fast just like every day we have to to look social to see the kind of improving or breakthroughs about AI or other old uh tech topics. So
**埃隆·马斯克**: 是的，现在的人工智能发展实在太疯狂了。AI 软件的迭代演进速度以及重大成果发布的频率极其迅猛，迅猛到甚至让我都感到目眩神迷。要知道我自己本身就在 AI 行业内部，但依然感到头晕目眩。
Original English **Elon Musk**: yeah, I mean AI is just so crazy. It's I mean AI the rate of AI software improvements so and major announcements is so rapid that it's a it's makes my head spin, you know, and I'm in you know I'm in AI and it still makes my head
**央视记者**: 您自己身处这个行业，却依然感到……
Original English **Interviewer**: this industry but you still have to
**埃隆·马斯克**: 依然令人感到震撼。有时候我晚上去睡觉时刚发布了一项重大的 AI 突破，第二天早上醒来又出现了一个新突破，等到了吃午饭的时候，又有另一项新突破接踵而至。
Original English **Elon Musk**: it's still shocking. Yeah. Um, you know, sometimes I'll like when I go to bed there'll be some big AI breakthrough and then when I wake up there's an AI breakthrough and by the time it gets to lunch there's another AI breakthrough.
**央视记者**: 没错，所以即使在刚才休息的间隙，您还得掏出手机去查看最新的进展。
Original English **Interviewer**: Exactly. So that's why even during this break you have to check another.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 确实是这样。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Yeah.
**央视记者**: 谈到 AI 大模型，特斯拉最近发布了最新版本的 **Grok** 2.7。我想这一定是您这两天最关注的焦点。我刚看到您在社交媒体上发帖说 Grokbot 已经搭载到了您的特斯拉车机中。能否跟我们分享一下目前收到的用户反馈和最新进展？
Original English **Interviewer**: So talking about like AI models Tesla have the latest version right the latest uh release about the Grok 2.7. Yes. I think this is your most uh focus these two days. I I just saw you post on social saying that you know the Grokbot is already in your Tesla. Tell us like what's the reactions? What's the latest uh you have received from?
**埃隆·马斯克**: 我们基本上每隔一到两个月就会发布一个新模型。我们发布的 Grok 2.7 是一个非常扎实耐用的主力模型。它目前虽然还比不上刚刚发布的 **Claude 3.5 Opus** 这样的模型，但别忘了，我们投身 AI 领域才大约三年左右，而 **Anthropic** 已经做了六年。所以我预计在明年某个时候，我们大概率就能追平最前沿的行业领跑者。与此同时，Grok 在很多场景下已经非常实用了。作为一款个人数字助理，Grokbot 非常受欢迎，目前正以每月 100% 的速度高速增长。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Yeah, I mean well we just we we release a new model you know roughly every month or two. Um so um and uh it it's a call for 2.7 a solid workhorse of a model. Um it's not it's not as good as say um Opus 3.5 that just got released. U but uh also we're um we've only been around for about 3 years doing AI whereas Anthropic's been around for 6 years. So um so I I would expect that we probably uh catch up to Frontier sometime next next year most likely. In the meantime, I think Grok is very useful for many things. Um, and Grokbot uh is kind of like a personal digital assistant um has uh been very popular um and is growing about 100% a month. So, it's growing very rapidly.
**央视记者**: 我觉得您非常谦虚，您说 Grok 2.7 还不是最完美的。但即便经历了一些小延期，大家依然非常着迷且充满期待，因为大家知道 Grok 已经在利用 **SpaceX** 的真实世界工程数据进行训练了。那么您是否认为……
Original English **Interviewer**: I think you are very humble. You're saying that like Grok 2.7 is still not the perfect one. But we know that although uh have experienced a little bit delay but you know that people are already very fascinated or interested to know because Grok 2.7 already being trained by uh SpaceX real world uh engineering data. So do you think
**埃隆·马斯克**: 目前其实还只融入了一点点。
Original English **Elon Musk**: only a little bit so far?
**央视记者**: 只有一点点。好的，那您认为这会不会成为你们打破 AI 天花板的秘密武器？因为目前其他大模型都在面临高质量数据短缺的挑战。
Original English **Interviewer**: A little bit. Okay. So do you think this will be one of your secret weapon to kind of break through the AI ceiling because currently you know other models are have the challenge for data.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 是的。我认为利用 SpaceX 的训练数据，以及未来加入特斯拉的训练数据，我们迎来了一个绝佳的机遇——那就是让 AI 在现实物理工程领域具备极强的能力。Anthropic 做得极其出色的一点，是让 AI 精通软件工程；但是到目前为止，还没有人能让 AI 精通真实的物理世界工程。我认为这正是 Grok 的巨大机遇，通过融合 SpaceX 和特斯拉的独家工程数据，在真实世界工程中做到出类拔萃。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Yes. Well, I think we've got um a real opportunity with the SpaceX training data and maybe with the Tesla training data to um make AI extremely capable in real world engineering. So, what Anthropic did extremely well was make AI um excellent at software engineering. Um but no one has yet made AI excellent at real world engineering. And I think that's an opportunity for Grok using the training data from SpaceX and Tesla to be excellent at real world engineering.
### 中国大模型与电力算力优势 **央视记者**: 您曾多次提到中国的 AI 模型表现令人赞叹。在您目前的理解中，中国模型最令人印象深刻的突破是什么？
Original English **Interviewer**: You mentioned many times like previously Chinese models also uh doing a fascinating job. So currently what's the most impression breakthroughs for Chinese models in your understanding?
**埃隆·马斯克**: 总体而言，中国的 AI 模型表现非常卓越。从各种智能基准排行榜上就可以看出来，尤其是考虑到中国 AI 公司所受限的算力规模，他们所呈现出的性能令人惊叹。在单位算力产出的性能效率方面，中国目前可以说是遥遥领先的。正如我之前在公开场合所说的那样，我认为中国解决算力瓶颈的速度会比大多数人预期的要快得多。我粗略估计，中国大概在两到三年内，就能通过自主光刻机和芯片制造技术化解目前的算力限制。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Well, they've they've been um the Chinese uh AI models are generally um outstanding actually. I mean you can see on the sort of uh intelligence rankings there especially given the limited amount of compute that the Chinese um AI companies have the uh the performance is excellent probably China is doing by far the best in terms of performance per unit of compute and as I've said uh publicly um you know I think China's going to address the compute limitation in I think faster than most people expect. Um my rough guess would be that China addresses the compute constraints with lithography and chipmaking in about uh 2 or 3 years.
**央视记者**: 两到三年，这确实让我们非常期待。关于走向通用人工智能（AGI）的挑战，在九月初的 G20 线上会议中，您曾对算力和电力短缺表达过极其严肃的担忧。您当时提到，中国在电力基础设施方面拥有远超其他国家的实力。
Original English **Interviewer**: 2 or 3 years we will really expect into this time. So about the challenges facing for AGI in early September you know the G20 uh virtual session you have raised a very serious concern about the compute and electricity shortages. You mentioned that uh probably China have way more capability about uh electricity infrastructure.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 是的。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Yes.
**央视记者**: 您能否进一步阐述一下这种差距？以及您认为中国的工业体系和基础设施能力，具体可以在哪些领域帮助全球在电力基础设施方面取得新突破？
Original English **Interviewer**: And uh can you elaborate a little bit more about this gap and uh you know what areas do you think the Chinese industry and capability can help to get a new breakthrough for the specifically on the electricity infrastructure for the whole world?
**埃隆·马斯克**: 我当时陈述的只是一个客观事实：今年早些时候，中国的总发电量就已经超过了美国、欧洲和印度的总和。
Original English **Elon Musk**: I was just a statement of fact that China I think is like earlier this year China passed the electricity output of the United States, Europe and India combined.
**央视记者**: 哇。
Original English **Interviewer**: Wow.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 确实如此。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Yeah.
**央视记者**: 确实令人震撼。
Original English **Interviewer**: Exactly.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 而且中国的发电量还在持续显著增长。如果未来中国的单位 GDP 发电量达到与美国相当的水平——我认为这很有可能发生——那么中国的发电量将从目前大约是美国三倍的水平，跃升至大约四倍，这与两国的人口比例也是相吻合的。
Original English **Elon Musk**: And continuing to increase significantly. Um so if uh if China reaches um the same GDP electricity output as the US which I think is likely then China would would go from where it is now roughly three three times the US electricity production to probably four times which would be proportionate to the population difference
### 人工智能安全与全球治理 **央视记者**: 谈到 AI 安全这个议题，您期待国际社会达成怎样至关重要的共识？
Original English **Interviewer**: talking about the topic like AI safety what kind of crucial consensus do you expect?
**埃隆·马斯克**: 我认为或许可以设立一个专门的工作委员会来共同制定安全机制。因为要想让 AI 安全真正奏效，绝不能仅仅依靠美国的监管，或者仅仅依靠中国的监管。我们必须探讨如何公平地对任何国家生产的人工智能进行监管，而在这个问题上，中美两国是真正举足轻重、起到决定性作用的。因此，达成这样的机制对于全人类的人工智能安全而言至关重要。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Yeah, I think um maybe there could be a working committee to figure out safety. Um because it's I think in order for safety to work, it's it can't just be regulation in the US or regulation in China. It's got to be we you know, how are we how do we apply apply regulation fairly to uh AI produced in any country? But really, China and the US are the the the ones that really matter here. Um, so I think a really important thing that would be good for the safety of AI for all of humanity.
### Optimus与人形机器人时代 **央视记者**: 好的，那我们再来聊聊人形机器人。我认为这也是中美双方可以携手引领全球产业合作的重要工业领域。我想给您分享一个关于 **Optimus** 的亲身体验：在采访开始前，我们与 Optimus 进行了一次互动，跟它玩了“石头剪刀布”。结果我们只赢了前两局，后面的所有对局全都被 Optimus 赢下了，这真的太令人印象深刻了！
Original English **Interviewer**: Yeah. So let's talk about the humanoid robotics cuz I think this is also a kind of industrial field. US China can still also working together leading the world. Uh, and also I I can give you one example for the Optimus. It's really amazing really impressive. So before interview we have a a kind of interactions. We play uh rock paper scissors with Optimus. So, yeah, we just won the first two rounds and Optimus won all the remaining. That's really impressive.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 机器人的反应速度非常快，所以在反应速度上要想战胜机器人几乎是不可能的。因为人类在某种程度上受限于自身的生物学生理构造；但是对于机器人来说，你可以不断升级执行器、改进传感器、提高摄像头的帧率，并且增加机载 AI 算力，它在本质上就会比人类强大得多，拥有比人类快得多的反应时间。我很喜欢看机器人竞技比赛，顺便说一句，全美社交媒体上的人都被那些机器人比赛深深吸引了。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Well, robots have a very fast reaction time, so it's going to be very difficult to beat a robot for reaction time. Um, cuz we we are somewhat constrained by our biology. But a robot, you can just improve the actuators, improve the sensors, improve the the frame rate of the cameras, uh, increase the amount amount of AI compute there is, and it's going to just fundamentally be much better. um and have faster reactions than humans. Um I enjoyed watching the the robot games. I mean, everyone in America was fascinated by that, by the way. All over US social media.
**央视记者**: 是的，您说看那些比赛非常有观赏性和娱乐性，对吧？但除此之外……（笑）
Original English **Interviewer**: Yeah. You said it's very entertaining to watch, right? Yeah. But other than that, [laughter]
**埃隆·马斯克**: 它确实很有观赏性，但它同时也直观展示了人形机器人的飞速进步。
Original English **Elon Musk**: well, but it's entertaining to watch, but it also shows you uh the progress of humanoid robotics.
**央视记者**: 确实如此。
Original English **Interviewer**: Exactly.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 如果机器人走两步就摔倒，那可就谈不上什么观赏性了。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Um like it wouldn't be entertaining to watch if the robots just fell over.
**央视记者**: 当然，现在的机器人能打拳击、摔跤、跑步，还能做体操动作，太酷了。
Original English **Interviewer**: Of course. Uh so but you know the robots like boxing and then like wrestling wrestling, running, doing gymnastics. Uh it's pretty cool. Um
**埃隆·马斯克**: 所以未来的世界里将会有非常多的机器人，数量极其庞大。
Original English **Elon Musk**: so I mean the future is going to have a lot of robots like a lot a lot.
**央视记者**: 是的，您曾提到过，在未来十年内……
Original English **Interviewer**: Yeah. You mentioned that just in another 10 years, right? There will be
**埃隆·马斯克**: 人形机器人的总数量将会突破 10 亿台。
Original English **Elon Musk**: the population for humanoid robots will surpass 1 billion.
**央视记者**: 是的。
Original English **Interviewer**: Yes.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 我认为这是一个很容易做出的预测。
Original English **Elon Musk**: So that's I think that's an easy prediction to make.
**央视记者**: 很容易做出的预测，大概在十年之内。
Original English **Interviewer**: Easy prediction. Maybe within 10 years.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 我觉得最迟不会超过十年。
Original English **Elon Musk**: I'd say no later than 10 years.
**央视记者**: 那我们来聊聊十年后的现实生活会是什么样子。当世界上存在着如此庞大规模的人形机器人，而且正如您所言，一台人形机器人的生产力将达到人类的五倍……
Original English **Interviewer**: So what what let's talk about what's the real life will look like in 10 years you know when there are so big you know number of population of humanoid robots and also you mentioned that one humanoid robots will have the five times of productivity for a human
**埃隆·马斯克**: 差不多就是这样。
Original English **Elon Musk**: pretty much
**央视记者**: 那么到那时候，生活会变成什么样？尤其是对于普通人而言，当 AI 和机器人几乎主导整个世界时，我们应该如何应对生活？
Original English **Interviewer**: yeah so what the life will be and then I mean it's specifically like like an ordinary people how we can cope with the the living you know with all AI kind of dominated the world
### 物质极度丰裕时代与无货币社会 **埃隆·马斯克**: 让我先重点谈谈有 90% 概率会发生的结局——也就是那个高度繁荣美好的未来。当然，我们绝不能对那 10% 概率的糟糕后果掉以轻心，所以高度重视 AI 安全至关重要。但且让我描绘一下那 90% 概率的美好图景：到那时，每个人都会拥有属于自己的机器人伙伴。如果你看过《星球大战》，里面有 C-3PO 和 R2-D2，它们都是友好、乐于助人的机器人。如果每个人都能拥有属于自己的 C-3PO 和 R2-D2，那岂不是太棒了？
Original English **Elon Musk**: well I think my so Let me focus on the what's the 90% likely outcome which is the prosperous the good outcome. Um we don't want to get complacent regarding the 10% but may probability of a bad outcome. So we need to it's important for us to pay close attention to AI safety. But let me tell you about the 90% positive outcome. The 90% positive outcome is that everyone's got uh robots that are their their buddies. Um, and um, if you think of like Star Wars where you had C-3PO and R2-D2, um, and they were friendly, help, help helpful robots. Um, well, wouldn't it be great if everyone could have their own personal C3PO R2-D2?
**央视记者**: 嗯哼。
Original English **Interviewer**: Mhm.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 而且它们会比电影里表现得更好。
Original English **Elon Musk**: But even better than that,
**央视记者**: 比如生产力更高。
Original English **Interviewer**: like more productive,
**埃隆·马斯克**: 它可以照顾年迈的父母，成为守护儿童的称职卫士，或者充当一对一的专属家庭教师，辅导孩子学习；它还可以承担你能想到的任何工作。那将是一幅非常美好的图景。
Original English **Elon Musk**: uh, that could, uh, take care of elderly parents, uh, or be a good guardian and watch over the children or or be a teacher, like an individualized tutor to your child. um and uh and taking care of any jobs that that that you can think of. Um so that would be pretty cool.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 我想每个人都会向往一个拥有专属个人机器人的未来。届时你会看到许多公司的形态变成：一个人带领着数百甚至数千台机器人——既包括实体机器人，也包括数字虚拟机器人。一个人的生产力将被无限放大。我的预测是，届时社会将真正实现**全民高收入**（Universal High Income）。
Original English **Elon Musk**: I think everyone would like like to have a future where they can have their own personal robots and and then I think you'll see many companies where it's um one person with uh hundreds maybe thousands of robots like physical robots as well as digital robots. Um so the productivity of one person would be greatly amplified. Um and and my prediction is that is that there will be uh effectively universal high income.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 事实上，我甚至不确定在未来金钱是否还会具有意义。如果你将经济体中商品和服务的产出规模，提升到远远超过全人类总消耗能力的水平，人类就将步入一个极度丰裕的时代。这对我们而言甚至有点难以想象，因为人类的整个进化史，本质上就是一部与物资匮乏抗争的历史——过去我们总是缺乏食物，或者缺乏保暖的热源。如果商品和服务的供给不再受限于人类劳动力数量，这一切都将被彻底改写。因为人类通常需要 20 年才能长大成人，人生最后的 20 年往往处于退休状态，中间大约只有 40 年的时间具有生产力；而且人类每天需要睡觉、吃饭、上厕所，每周实际有效工作时间大概也就 40 到 50 个小时。然而机器人乐于每周 168 小时不间断工作，它一出厂就具备完全的劳动年龄，而且永远不需要退休。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Um in fact, it's not clear to me that money will even matter in the future. Um like if you if you scale the economy, the output of goods and services to a level much greater than could possibly be consumed by the number of humans on the planet, uh then you you have an age of abundance. Uh that is that is difficult for us to wrap our minds around because our entire evolutionary history has been an evolution of uh constraints of of um where we didn't have enough food or we didn't have enough uh you know heat or you know so necessarily going to be true if the output of goods and services is constrained by the number of humans because um you know humans take about 20 years to grow up and then they are generally retired for the last 20 years of their life. so it's about 40 years maybe half the life of a human that's productive but then humans also need to sleep and they need to do the eat and go to the restroom you know all the basic stuff um and um and and so the actual number of hours that that most humans can work is maybe around 40 to 50 hours a week something like that. Um whereas the robot will be happy to work 168 hours a week continuous. Um and this and and the robot is instantly at working age and does not have retirement.
**央视记者**: 确实如此。您为我们描绘了一幅非常美好的愿景，展示了人形机器人带来的超高生产力。但您刚才也提到，未来金钱可能不再重要。如果货币不再作为交换媒介，我们该如何防止少数几家科技巨头垄断所有资源？普通人又该如何在这样极度丰裕的世界中分得属于自己的那一份？
Original English **Interviewer**: Exactly. Yeah. So you give us a very beautiful picture about how the life or how highly efficiency about the uh productivity by the uh humanoid robots. But for example you just mentioned that maybe money will not be that kind of concern at that time. I think yeah if money will not be a for example like a tool for exchange in that kind of world do how do you think that we can try to prevent uh you know the only a handful few tech giants in you know controlling the all the resources and is specifically how ordinary people do you think they can claim their share in this kind of full abundance
**埃隆·马斯克**: 我想表达的核心是，届时的丰裕程度将彻底超出任何个人的消费极限。到时候场景可能会超乎想象：如果你想要一座城堡，机器人就能为你建造一座城堡。所以机器人绝不会被少数人垄断。事实上，机器人提供的服务将彻底饱和并超越人类的所有需求，它们能完成的事情将远远超出人类所能构想的范围。
Original English **Elon Musk**: yeah what I'm trying to say is that I think that there will be a level of abundance that is more than anyone could possibly consume um I mean I think it's going to get pretty wild where if you want a if you want a castle, you know, um the robots will build you a castle. Um so it's not it's not like it's it's not as though like the robots will be hoarded by a small number of people. It like actually the robots I think will be they will saturate on human demand, meaning that they will be they will do more than anything humans could possibly think of.
**央视记者**: 嗯哼。
Original English **Interviewer**: Mhm.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 到那时，它们能为人类做的事情甚至会被全部做完。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Um and and and and they'll run out of things to do for humans.
**央视记者**: 是的。
Original English **Interviewer**: Yeah.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 因为在合理范围内，人类能让它们做的事情是有限的。所以我认为机器人最终会做完人类交代的所有事情，然后开始为它们自己做事情，因为它们已经无事可为人类做了。正因如此，正如我们刚才所讨论的，我的预测是十年内人形机器人数量至少达到 10 亿台。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Um because there is a finite amount of things you could do for humans within reason. Um so I think the robots will actually run out of things to do for humans and then they will do things for themselves because they they've run out of things to do for humans. So um and and probably probably there will be I mean like my prediction is like as you talked about at least a billion humanoid robots within 10 years.
**央视记者**: 是的。
Original English **Interviewer**: Yeah.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 很可能用不了十年。这个数字还会继续指数级增长。如果假设总量每年翻一番，那么大约每三到四年就会迎来一次十倍（10x）的爆发。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Probably less than 10 years. U I think that continues to grow. Uh and probably if if if you assume that things roughly double per year then then that's about every 3 or 4 years you have a 10x increase.
**央视记者**: 确实。
Original English **Interviewer**: Yes.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 这意味着十五年内可能会有 100 亿台机器人。
Original English **Elon Musk**: So um you know maybe that would mean say in 15 years there are 10 billion robots
**央视记者**: 仅仅十五年，就会有 100 亿台！
Original English **Interviewer**: 10 billion just 15 years
**埃隆·马斯克**: 二十年内将达到 1000 亿台。
Original English **Elon Musk**: in 20 years 100 billion
### 太空探索合作与火箭复用 **央视记者**: 没错，这也正是为什么我们常说 AI 时代的世界正在以指数级的速度进化。继续聊聊中美之间的合作以及我们共同可以做的事情：关于太空探索领域，目前许多中国商业航天公司在成功完成地面回收后，正在全力拓展更多应用。在您看来，中美两国在太空领域有哪些沟通与合作的潜在渠道？
Original English **Interviewer**: exactly so this that's why we we always call it like AI world is changing improving exponentially continue about the cooperation between us China or what errors we can do together the space exploration uh because currently uh many Chinese commercial space uh companies they strive to you know to explore more use uh after the successful land recovery. Um what kind of areas or uh avenues do you think possible avenue do you think uh between communications or corporations can can get between us and China?
**埃隆·马斯克**: 在航天领域，我认为最关键的合作是确保当中美发射卫星时，双方能够紧密协调卫星入轨的轨道参数，以彻底避免潜在的碰撞风险，这是最重要也是最务实的合作领域。另外在太空发射领域，我认为最核心的底层突破是实现**完全且快速的可重复使用**。我们正希望通过**星舰**（Starship）的设计来实现这一目标——我们期望大约在下个月底尝试用发射塔捕获飞船本体，并在今年底或明年初再次复飞这艘飞船。这将是一项至关重要的技术突破。我相信其他人最终也能攻克这个难题，我相信中国在未来的某个节点也一定能解决完全复用问题。但无论如何，火箭完全且快速的可重复使用，是让生命成为多行星物种所必须攻克的最根本突破。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Well I mean in space I think the most important thing to achieve cooperation with is to make sure that when satellites are launched from the US or China that we we closely coordinate where what orbits the satellites are going to to avoid a potential collision. I think that's the most important area of cooperation. Um, and then in in general, I I would say the the important thing for space launch, the fundamental breakthrough that's needed is full and rapid reusability. Um, which we're hoping to achieve with the Starship uh design um by catching the the ship hopefully around the end of next month. Um, and then reflying the ship either later this year or early next year. Um and that will be a very important breakthrough. Um and I'm sure others will solve that that problem as well. I'm sure China will at some point solve that problem too. Um but it's it's the full and rapid reusability of a rocket is the fundamental breakthrough needed to make life multilanetary.
### 多行星物种与意识之火延续 **央视记者**: 谈到成为多行星物种，您一直坚信人类应该走向深空、成为跨行星栖息的物种。那么对于您的火星计划而言，目前最核心的关键一步是什么？
Original English **Interviewer**: Continue to talk about multiplanetary species. You always you have always believed that humans should become a multiplanetary species. So tell us what's the current crucial step for your Mars mission?
**埃隆·马斯克**: 正如我之前所说，让生命跨越行星栖居所需的最深刻、最根本的发明，就是打造能够完全且快速复用的火箭。否则，星际航行的经济成本是根本无法承受的。以我们的猎鹰 9 号火箭为例，我们能够回收一级助推器和整流罩，但无法回收二级（上面级）。这就相当于每次航班飞行后，都要把一架中型喷气式飞机扔掉。你可以想象，如果在民航领域每次飞完都要扔掉一架飞机，那机票成本将极其昂贵，民航出行根本不可能普及。而这在过去很长一段时间里，恰恰是火箭发射行业的常态。所以无论我强调多少次都不为过，这些年来我无数次重申这一点：像飞机一样实现火箭完全且迅速的可重复使用，是将生命拓展到地球之外、成为多行星物种、并在月球和火星上建立自我扩张城市的根本突破。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Well, like I said, the the most profound and and fundamental invention necessary for making life multiplanetary is rapidly and completely reusable rockets. Um, otherwise the costs are impossible. Um, you know, with with our Falcon 9 rocket, we uh we recover the boost stage and the fairing, but not the upper stage. And this is like throwing away a medium-sized jet on every flight. Um and you can imagine if an airflight if you had to throw away the planes uh after every flight uh you it would be far too expensive to and and and airflight would not be a realistic option. Well, that's been true in in rockets for for a very long time. So, I can't emphasize enough and I've said this so many times over the years. um uh full and immediate reusability of of rockets like aircraft um is the is the fundamental breakthrough that's needed to extend life beyond Earth um to make life multiplanetary and to create self-growing cities on the moon and Mars.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 一旦我们能够在月球和火星上建立起能够自给自足、自我发展的城市，人类意识的生存寿命就会得到极其显著的提升。因为到那时，我们就不再把所有的鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里了。万一月球、火星或者地球中的某一个星球发生了意外灾难，但只要我们在三个星球上都拥有人类文明的分支，我们文明存续的概率就会大大增加。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Mhm. And and if we're as soon as we're able to create a self-growing city on the moon and Mars, the probable lifespan of consciousness is dramatically greater. uh because now we don't have uh all our eggs in one basket. Um so if something were to something wrong were to go wrong with say the moon or or Mars or Earth, but we've got human civilizations on all three of those places then our chances of surviving are much greater.
**央视记者**: 当然，三个不同的星球！这也是为什么我们每个人都要尽自己的一份力，跟上科技发展的步伐。
Original English **Interviewer**: Of course. Yeah. Three different planets. So that's why we all have to do our part follow
**埃隆·马斯克**: 而且这本身就是一件超级酷的事情！
Original English **Elon Musk**: and also it's just super cool.
**央视记者**: 确实，我们要紧跟科技巨头的步伐，努力让自己参与到成为多行星物种的进程中。
Original English **Interviewer**: Exactly. We have to follow all the tech giant steps try to make our own self try to be the uh become multiplanetary species.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 是的，没错。我通常把支持多行星生存的论点归纳为两条核心主线：第一条是“防御性逻辑”——让意识栖居在多个天体上，能够极大提高文明延续的期望寿命。你可以把它理解为全人类生命的终极保险。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Yes. Exactly. So I mean I classify these generally as like there's two lines of main lines of argument. One is the defensive line uh which is that it that having having consciousness on multiple heavenly bodies uh greatly improves the probable lifespan of civilization. Um that's the defensive argument. It's you can think of it as life insurance for life as a whole. Yeah.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 但从我个人内心而言，真正驱动我前行的其实是第二条主线，那就是“激励性逻辑”。生活不能仅仅停留在解决一个又一个令人沮丧的问题上。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Um the uh but the one I find personally that drives me more is actually the the inspiration argument. Uh because you see that the like life cannot just be about solving one sad problem after another.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 世界上必须有那些让你早晨醒来就感到心潮澎湃的事情。
Original English **Elon Musk**: There must also be things that make make you excited to wake up in the morning.
**央视记者**: 没错。
Original English **Interviewer**: Exactly.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 让你对未来充满无限期待。
Original English **Elon Musk**: That make you look forward to the future.
**央视记者**: 嗯哼。
Original English **Interviewer**: Mhm.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 让人生真正值得为之一活的事情。而成为一个探索星辰大海的太空文明，正是其中之一。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Um that make life worth living. And being a space fairing civilization is one of those things.
### 脑机接口与人机通信带宽 **央视记者**: 我完全赞同。埃隆，您曾经列出过您最关心的五个领域：可持续能源、太空探索、互联网、人工智能以及基因编辑。展望未来十年，在您的清单上是否有想要加入的新前沿领域？
Original English **Interviewer**: I totally agree with that. So, so Elon you have you you once listed like five areas you care about most like uh sustainable energy space uh and also the internet AI and gene editing looking ahead for another 10 years are there any new frontiers you want add to that list?
**埃隆·马斯克**: 我认为是通过像 **Neuralink** 这样的生物机能增强技术，这是我和几位伙伴共同创立的公司。我们致力于解决人类自身所面临的通信带宽限制。你可以想象一下，即使在最理想的良性场景下——AI 极其友善、渴望为你做一切事情、只想让你感到快乐——我们与它的沟通速率也实在太慢了。人类最高的输出带宽峰值大概只有每秒 100 比特（bits per second）左右。而由于视觉的存在，我们的输入带宽要高得多，尽管具体数值仍有探讨空间，但基本上眼睛就像摄像机一样，能提供每秒几兆比特（Mbps）的输入带宽；然而我们的输出带宽实在太低了，只有区区每秒 100 比特左右。相比之下，计算机之间正在以每秒数万亿比特（Tbps）的速率进行通信。因此，我们为了提高人类的通信速度所做的任何努力，我认为都将极大增进人类与机器之间的对齐（Alignment）。否则对于一个通信速度达到每秒 1 Tb 的超级 AI 而言，跟一个人类说话，感觉就像是在跟一棵树说话一样。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Well, I I think biological enhancement with like Neuralink, this company I created with some other people. Um where we're where um we we want to try to solve the bandwidth constraint that humans have. Uh so um so so because you can imagine like even in the most benign scenario where the AI is uh super friendly and wants to do everything you can it wants to make you happy just our rate of communication is too slow. So um our like average the peak human bandwidth is only about 100 bits per second roughly. Um and uh our input bandwidth is much higher because of vision. So there we maybe have it's a debatable point but you know a megabit per second or few a few megabits per second from our eyes which are affected like cameras. Um but our output bandwidth is really low maybe 100 bits per second whereas computers are communicating at trillion bits per second. So anything we can do to increase the communication speed of humans will improve the I think the alignment of humans and machines. Um because otherwise the the to an AI that is communicating at a terabit a second talking to a human will be like talking to a tree.
**央视记者**: 确实如此。
Original English **Interviewer**: Exactly.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 你知道的，你对着一棵树说话，它得花上极其漫长的时间才能做出一点反应。
Original English **Elon Musk**: You know you talk to a tree it's takes a long time to respond.
### 年轻人教育建议与提问能力 **央视记者**: 我们来聊聊年轻一代面临的挑战。您曾探讨过在 AI 时代下的教育问题。我注意到在特斯拉工程总部这里立着一块标语，写着“你随时可以重返特斯拉课堂学习”，这意味着无论在什么年龄，大家都有机会重新学习，紧跟 AI 时代的最新突破。那么面对这场巨变，您对当下的年轻人——比如 20 岁上下的年轻人——有怎样的建议或预测？他们应该如何实现自我价值，而不是在这个巨大的转型浪潮中被时代抛下？
Original English **Interviewer**: Let's talk about the challenge for young people. You you you mentioned that you also talk about education like in the AI world and also I I watched that in your uh headquarter here you have a sign like you can come back to school in Tesla as well means which means that in every age you can have the opportunity to come back to to learn always to follow the latest uh kind of break uh breakthrough uh in uh AI world but what what about kind of suggestions or your predictions at that time how for example like a 20 year olds young people they can get their fulfill their self worth rather than being left left behind, you know, during this uh massive transition.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 我对教育的核心建议是：尽可能接受最广泛的通识教育。这涵盖了文科、自然科学、工程学以及广泛的通用常识。因为在未来，要想知道该向机器人索求什么，你必须具备提出精准问题的能力。而拥有尽可能广博的通识背景，你才能更好地构建问题——也就是人们所说的**提示词工程**（Prompt Engineering）。你必须能够把自己的意图清晰地传达给机器人。而且说出来大家可能觉得匪夷所思：在未来，机器人的数量和 AI 的能力将极其充裕，以至于 AI 甚至会极其渴望听到你提出的任何诉求。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Well, well, my recommendation for education would be to get as broad-based education as possible. Uh that includes arts and sciences, engineering, wide general knowledge. Like in order to know what to ask the robots for, you need to be able to formulate the question. and and with the broadest possible general knowledge, you'll be better able to formulate the questions or what they call prompt engineering, I guess. Um, but you you've got to convey your what your wishes to the robot. And as crazy as this sounds, we will run out the there will be so many robots and so much AI that the AI will actually be eager to hear any request that you could possibly have.
**央视记者**: 嗯哼，因为任何诉求都能被瞬间予以满足。
Original English **Interviewer**: Mhm. Um because that request will be fulfilled immediately.
### 推荐探访中国壮丽景象 **央视记者**: 是的。您最近一次访问中国是在今年五月。如果您有机会带一位从未去过中国的美国企业家第一次去中国，您最希望他优先体验什么？
Original English **Interviewer**: Yeah. Your last visit to China is in May. If you you kind of have one opportunity to bring one American entrepreneur for visiting China for the very first time, what will be the most experience you want him to have first?
**埃隆·马斯克**: 我通常建议，只要那个人能腾出时间，就应该在中国停留尽可能长的时间，因为中国有太多值得看的东西了。不过通常大家的时间都是有限的，所以退一步说，至少应该去看看上海和北京。我非常推荐去西安看兵马俑。我曾经坐高铁从北京去西安，那是一次非常棒的旅行体验，中国的高铁站非常令人惊叹，而兵马俑更是名副其实的世界奇迹之一。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Well, I I generally recommend um I mean as much time as as as that person can devote to China, they should because China's got so many things to see. Um so I don't mean to I mean but like usually people don't have they don't have infinite time. So, uh, at a minimum, uh, they they should see obviously Shanghai, Beijing. I recommend Xian, the Terracotta Warriors. Uh, I took the bullet train from Beijing to Shian. That was a great experience. Train stations are amazing. Um, the Terracotta Warriors is one of the wonders of the world.
**央视记者**: 嗯哼。
Original English **Interviewer**: Mhm.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 而且在坐高铁时，一定要记得多看看窗外的风景，别老低头看手机，因为沿途有太多壮丽的风光值得欣赏。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Um, and um, and just and just make sure you look out the window and and you're not on your phone cuz there's so much to see.
**央视记者**: 没错，正如您一直鼓励所有人那样，亲自去中国走一走、看一看。
Original English **Interviewer**: Yeah. like you always recommend everyone to experience to go and see China by themselves.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 是的，因为我的任何语言都无法完全展现中国的壮丽与宏伟。中国真的太棒了。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Yes. Because any words I I any words I say do not do justice to the incredible majesty that is China. It's awesome.
**央视记者**: 非常感谢您的真诚分享。非常感谢埃隆接受央视财经频道的专访。埃隆，我们衷心期待很快能再次在北京见到您！
Original English **Interviewer**: Really appreciate for your words. Thank you so much, Elon, for uh sitting down with CCTV Business Channel. And Elon, we truly hope to see you again very soon in Beijing.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 谢谢。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Thank you.
**央视记者**: 谢谢埃隆，非常感谢！
Original English **Interviewer**: Thank you, Elon. Thank you so much.
**埃隆·马斯克**: 最后我想说，中国真的很棒，是一个不可思议的国家。我鼓励全世界的人们都去中国走走看看，亲自体验那里的魅力。
Original English **Elon Musk**: Generally, I'd just like to say China is awesome um and an incredible country and I encourage people from around the world to visit China and experience it for themselves.