--- author: TVO Today date: '2026-02-19' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jH6i1dMw0Ws speaker: TVO Today tags: - foreign-interference - canada-china-relations - geopolitical-strategy - trade-diversification - democratic-sovereignty title: 中国是否威胁加拿大民主？ summary: 本期《The Rundown》节目深入探讨了中国对加拿大民主构成的潜在威胁。作者丹尼斯·莫利纳罗在其新书《受攻击：中国对抗加拿大的秘密战争中的干涉与间谍活动》中指出，中国的干涉行为可追溯至五十多年前。节目分析了中国如何通过影响社区领袖、窃取知识产权、操纵贸易（如电动汽车和关键矿产）以及利用“军民融合”等手段进行渗透。专家还讨论了加拿大与中国进行贸易的风险，并对比了加拿大与美国在应对中国压力时的不同策略。节目最后探讨了加拿大作为中等强国，如何在复杂的国际格局中维护自身主权和民主价值观。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: geopolitics area: geopolitics project: [] people: [] companies_orgs: - Huawei products_models: [] media_books: - 'Under Assault: Interference and Espionage in China''s Secret War Against Canada' status: evergreen --- ### 中加关系转变与历史溯源 **主持人**: 我认为对加拿大最大的安全威胁是中国。
Original English **Host**: I think the biggest security threat to Canada is China.
**主持人**: 那是总理马克·卡尼在 2025 年 4 月的联邦领导人辩论中的发言。快进九个月。
Original English **Host**: That was Prime Minister Mark Carney during the federal leaders debate in April 2025. Fast forward nine months.
**主持人**: 我相信我们在此伙伴关系中取得的进展，使我们能够很好地适应新的世界秩序。
Original English **Host**: I believe the progress that we have made in the partnership sets us up well for the new world order.
**主持人**: 同一位总理，同一个国家，但语气截然不同。那番评论是在宣布一项新的贸易协议后，在一次对中国的官方访问期间发表的。那么，是什么改变了呢？嗯，这主要归功于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易战和威胁，迫使加拿大开始在那些它一直保持距离的地方寻找贸易伙伴。而中国呢，嗯，这几乎是中国最疏远的了。两国关系自 2018 年以来一直紧张。那是加拿大应美国要求逮捕了中国电信公司 **华为** 的首席财务官的时候。然后不久之后，就出现了外国干涉的指控。那么，中国现在能成为一个可靠的伙伴吗？嗯，根据一本新书的说法，两国之间的问题并非始于 2018 年。它们可以追溯到几十年前，追溯到皮埃尔·特鲁多时期。我们采访了作者丹尼斯·莫利纳罗，听他讲述为何认为中国几十年来一直在试图破坏加拿大的民主，以及它现在是否仍然构成重大的安全威胁。卡尼并不是最近访问过北京的唯一一位领导人。法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙和英国首相基尔·斯塔默也与中国国家主席习近平举行了会晤。那么，我们是否看到了“中国对西方”时代的终结？如果新的世界秩序正在形成，这对加拿大意味着什么？这是《The Rundown》。几年前，渥太华因中国干涉 2019 年和 2021 年联邦选举的指控而震惊。但一本新书称，中国试图影响本国政治的努力可以追溯得更远，远得多。丹尼斯·莫利纳罗是加拿大联邦政府前国家安全分析师和政策顾问，也是《受攻击：中国对抗加拿大的秘密战争中的干涉与间谍活动》一书的作者。他现在来到演播室。您好，先生？
Original English **Host**: Same prime minister, same country, but very different tone. That comment came during an official visit to China after the announcement of a new trade deal. So what changed? Well, it's mostly thanks to US President Donald Trump's trade wars and threats pushing Canada to start looking for trade partners in places it kept at arm's length. And China, well, that's about as arm's length as it gets. Relations between the two countries have been strained since 2018. That's when Canada arrested the CFO of Chinese telecom company Huawei at the request of the United States. And then not too long after that, there were allegations of foreign interference. So can China be a reliable partner now? Well, according to a new book, issues between the two countries didn't start in 2018. They go back decades to the time of Pierre Trudeau. We talked to author Dennis Molinaro about why he believes China has been trying to undermine democracy in Canada for decades, and whether it still poses a significant security threat now. Carney isn't the only leader who's recently paid a visit to Beijing. French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer also met with Chinese President XI Jinping. So are we seeing the end of a China versus the West? And if a new world order is taking shape, what does that mean for Canada? This is The Rundown. A few years ago, Ottawa was rocked by allegations China had interfered in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. But a new book says China's attempts to influence politics in this country go back further, way further. Dennis Molinaro is a former national security analyst and policy adviser for the Canadian federal government, and the author of Under Assault Interference in Espionage in China's Secret War Against Canada. And he joins us in studio. How are you doing, sir?
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 非常好。你呢？
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: Very well. How are you?
**主持人**: 我很好。让我们从一个简短的历史课开始。你在书中说，中国的秘密行动针对加拿大可以追溯到五十多年前，追溯到总理皮埃尔·特鲁多。那是什么故事？
Original English **Host**: I'm doing great. Let's start with a little history lesson here. You say in your book that China's covert actions against Canada go back over 50 years to Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau. What's the story there?
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 哦，有个故事。是的。这真的可以追溯到 **中华人民共和国**（**PRC**）寻求获得世界认可的时候，而共产党希望其政府被承认为中国的唯一执政政府。我从解密文件中了解到，在那一时期，一个名叫保罗·林（Paul Lin）的关键人物在争取中国获得认可方面非常有影响力，他认为这必须发生，并试图与政府成员、学者、各种国际政策制定者会面。通过记录发现，他实际上是 **中国** 的一个“**影响代理人**”，正如 **RCMP** 所说的。这真的开始改变了干涉和影响何时开始的故事。我的意思是，因为这看起来比我们想象的要早得多。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: Oh, there's a story. Yeah. So it goes back really to the time when the PRC, the People's Republic of China, was looking to get recognised by the world and the Communist Party wanted their government recognised as the sole government in charge of China. And so what I learned from declassified documents was essentially one of the principal actors of that era. An individual named Paul Lin was very influential in speaking out in terms of recognition of China that it needed to happen, trying to meet with government members of government, academics, policymakers of all kinds internationally. And it turns out through the records that he was actually an agent of influence, as the RCMP put it, for China. And that really started to change the story of when did interference and influence start? I mean, because it started to look like it was a lot earlier than we may have thought.
**主持人**: 当我们谈论干涉时，我想确保我们区分清楚。我们如何区分外国干涉与，比如说，游说？
Original English **Host**: When we talk about interference, I want to make sure we distinguish. How do we distinguish between foreign interference versus, say, lobbying.
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: **秘密方面** 是主要因素，对吧？所以当某事是秘密的，并且是在幕后进行的，那时它就从真正公开和合法的游说工作变成了别的东西。当它转移到秘密领域时，它通常可能更险恶。所以我们真正关注的是受外国国家指使的险恶活动。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: The covert aspect is the main element, right? So when when something is covert and being done behind closed doors, that's when it changes from something that is really open and legitimate type of lobbying work. When it shifts into the covert space, it becomes generally could be more nefarious. And so that's really what we're looking at is nefarious activity that is at the behest of a foreign state.
**主持人**: 举个例子。
Original English **Host**: Give me an example.
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 当然。嗯，你可以想想试图影响一位社区领袖，让他不要公开反对中国，如果我们今天谈论的是中国的话。所以试图影响社区成员不要这样做。所以有人可能秘密地为 **PRC**、为 **中国** 在加拿大境内做这件事，而不申报这项活动，所以秘密地为该国工作，并骚扰异见人士或骚扰人们，可能影响政治家采取某种政策路线，可能通过建立伙伴关系来窃取 **知识产权**。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: Sure. So, well, you could think about trying to influence a community leader to not speak out against China in some way if we're talking about China, which we are today. So trying to influence community members not to. So somebody could be covertly doing that for the PRC, for China, within Canada, not declaring that activity so secretly working for the state and harassing dissidents or harassing people could be influencing politicians to take a certain policy line, could be stealing intellectual property by getting into partnerships.
### 中国渗透的多元领域 **主持人**: 丹尼斯，大多数观众和听众可能熟悉围绕选举干涉的指控，但中国还针对哪些其他领域？
Original English **Host**: Dennis, most viewers and listeners may be familiar with the allegations around election interference, but what other areas has China targeted?
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 嗯，正如我提到的，还有其他一些领域，比如 **研究伙伴关系**。所以会试图与一家中国机构或公司合作，这家公司可能与国家有联系，试图与学者合作，试图建立研究和资助的伙伴关系协议。而在幕后，会有条款要求转让 **知识产权**。所以这是另一种试图施加影响并为中国获取战术优势的方式。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: So as I mentioned, a little bit of other areas like research partnerships. So it would be trying to partner with a Chinese institution or company, maybe that's got a state linked influence, trying to partner with academics, trying to form partnership agreements for research and for funding. And behind the scenes, there are clauses to turn over intellectual property. So that's that's another way of trying to influence and trying to gain tactical advantage for China.
**主持人**: 当我们谈论贸易和干涉时，那是什么样的？
Original English **Host**: When we talk about trade and interference, what does that look like?
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 贸易是另一个有悠久历史的领域，就 **PRC** 寻求建立贸易联系而言，这将使他们能够获得不同的技术。同样，**知识产权** 也会随时间推移。但在这种情况下，如果我们谈论的是当前现代时代的贸易，那么我们可能谈论的是 **PRC 的电动汽车**，对吧？所以这里的风险开始成为：一是，中国的战略性商品和技术进入北美 **供应链**，这会成为一个问题，特别是考虑到我们与 **美国** 的关系。以及一体化的汽车行业，你还会看到一些公司传统上受到国家的大量补贴。所以这会损害加拿大劳动力和制造商。还有一些不常被谈论的途径。这是因为在中国，许多公司被卷入了所谓的“**军民融合**”。这就是公司直接或间接为中国的军事野心做出贡献。好的。那么危险在于，如果我们与一家为我们提供技术、汽车或任何东西的公司建立联系，而这家公司可能与“军民融合”有关。那么我们就会间接协助 **PLA**（**中国人民解放军**）。好的。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: Trade is is another one that has a long history in terms of the PRC looking to build trade linkages, which would give them access to different technologies. Again, intellectual property over time, but also in this case, if we're talking about trade in the present modern day era, then we're talking about potentially PRC EVs, right? So the risks here start to become one. Chinese goods and technologies that are strategic, entering into the supply chain of North America, that becomes a problem, particularly with our relationship with the United States. And the integrated auto sector, you're also getting companies that are traditionally heavily state subsidised. So that undercuts Canadian labour and manufacturers. You're also getting other avenues that don't get talked about a lot. And that's because in China, a number of companies have been pulled into what's called military civil fusion. This is where companies are directly contributing or indirectly contributing to China's military ambitions. Okay. And so the danger there is, if we get tied into a company that provides technology to us or cars or what have you, that might have a military civil fusion connection. So then we would be indirectly assisting the PLA, the People's Liberation Army. Okay.
**主持人**: 我可以看到那里的担忧。
Original English **Host**: I can see the concerns there.
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 有担忧。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: There's concerns.
**主持人**: 你在整本书中都在敲响警钟，让人们了解许多人不知道的事情。但是，加拿大安全情报局（**CSIS**）已将印度、俄罗斯、伊朗等多个国家列为潜在的干涉来源。所以不得不问一个问题，为什么如此多的关注集中在中国？
Original English **Host**: You are throughout this book sort of waving, you know, pressing the alarm and letting people in on sort of what many people don't know. But the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, CSIS has listed a number of other countries, India, Russia, Iran as potential sources of interference. So one has to ask the question, why is there so much focus on China?
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 嗯，因为我觉得这段历史没有被讲述过。通常我们在加拿大，多年来一直如此，而且持续不断，正如我在书中指出的那样，人们一直认为，在对待中国的问题上，加拿大政策制定者，甚至商界领袖，一直倾向于看到他们希望看到的中国，而不是它实际的样子。所以，当你忽视了所有的情报安全方面时，你真的无法拥有那种外交历史或对那个国家的外交理解。所以中国成为主要焦点，是因为它是一个正在崛起的超级大国。而且它是我们第二大贸易伙伴。而且多年来，加拿大情报部门一直将其确定为头号威胁。所以，讲述这个故事是合乎逻辑的。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: Well, because I felt that this history had not been told. Typically what we we have in Canada, what's happened is successively over the years and continually is as I make the point in the book, there have been there has been a belief when it comes to China that Canadian policymakers have continued, and even business leaders have continued to view China as they want to see it, rather than as it actually is. And so you can't really have that diplomatic history or that diplomatic understanding of the country when it's when all the intelligence security aspect is ignored. So China becomes the main focus because of the fact that it is a rising superpower. And it's our second largest trading partner. And progressively, consistently, actually, over the years, Canadian intelligence has identified it as the number one threat. So it made logical sense that we needed this story told.
**主持人**: 现在，我确实要问一下，当你是一名国家安全分析师时，你是否能够沟通任何这些担忧？
Original English **Host**: Now, I do have to ask, when you were a national security analyst, were you able to communicate any of these concerns?
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 我不能说。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: I couldn't say.
**主持人**: 你签署了保密协议。
Original English **Host**: Signed an NDA.
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 是的。那是你必须遵守的誓言。无论我做了什么或没做什么，我都不能谈论它。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: Yeah. That's that's an oath you carry. Whatever I did or didn't do, I could never talk about it.
**主持人**: 公平地说。好的。考虑到这一点，考虑到你书中所概述问题的严重性，历届政府是如何处理的？我们来看看历史，以及我们目前的政府。我们看到了什么？
Original English **Host**: Fair enough. All right. Given understanding that given the seriousness of the issue, though you've outlined in your book, how has it been handled by successive governments? We're to kind of look at the history here and with our current government. But what have we seen?
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 所以我从书中看到，为写这本书而做的研究表明，历届政府从未真正处理过国内发生的任何活动。这可以追溯到特鲁多父子时期。报纸上会出现一些事件。安全部门会发出警告。例如，在中国在这里设立大使馆后，**CBC** 报道称，**FBI** 对一些外交官感到担忧，并希望逮捕他们，因为他们利用驻加拿大大使馆将他们在 **美国** 收集的情报传回 **中国**。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: So what I saw from the book were researched for the book was that continually, you never really saw governments addressing any of the activities that were going on domestically. And that dates all the way back to the Trudeau senior years. You would have instances appear in the newspaper. You would have warnings appear from the security services. So in one instance, actually in the after the after China gets an embassy here, you have the CBC reporting that the FBI was concerned and wanted to arrest of diplomats who were bringing intelligence using the the embassy in Canada to funnel intelligence back to China that they were collecting in the United States.
**主持人**: 好的。
Original English **Host**: Okay.
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 我找不到任何事情发生。你还遇到过其他一些情况，比如技术出售给中国。曾有过出售的努力。实际上曾有过一次出售，公司出售了中国第一架攻击直升机的发动机。后来又试图再次出售。媒体曾报道过一次，加拿大同意向中国出售配备以色列技术的侦察机。当此事被媒体曝光后，据我所能找到的资料显示，这笔交易似乎破裂了。但我们有所有关于 **PRC** 活动的警告，涉及跨国 **有组织犯罪**，也涉及针对异见人士的跨国犯罪或压迫。但似乎什么都没有发生。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: And nothing appeared to have happened with that at all that I could find. You had other instances where technology is sold to China. There were efforts to try to sell. There was an effort actually, where they did sell. Companies did sell the engines for China's first attack helicopters. Tried to do it again later. You had one instance in the press where Canada was was fine with selling China spy planes that would be equipped with technology from Israel. When that got exposed in the press, the deal seemingly fell apart as far as I could find. But we have all these warnings about the PRC's activities against and transnational organised organised crime, but also transnational crime or repression against dissidents. Haven't seen anything happen.
**主持人**: 和那些情况相比，现在有什么不同吗？
Original English **Host**: Is it different now than in those cases?
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 我认为现在的危险在于，由于其中一些活动持续了这么长时间，我们收到了来自华裔加拿大人社区和不同侨民社区的警告，称他们受到了中国的针对，例如，仅以此为例，这可以追溯到 80 年代和 90 年代。好的。所以现在的不同之处在于，当我们知道这些活动已经持续了这么久，这会助长那些从事活动的人。如果没有成本，那么他们就没有理由停止。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: I think the danger that we're into now is that because of how long some of these activities have continued, we've had warnings from from the Chinese Canadian community and different diaspora communities that they've been targeted by China, for instance, just using this as an example going back to the '80s and '90s. Okay. And so the difference now is when we know the activity has been going on that long, it emboldens people who are doing the activity. If there's no cost imposed, then there's no reason for them to stop.
**主持人**: 如何？我不想展望未来，但这种情况会变得多糟？
Original English **Host**: How? I don't want us to to sort of look into to the future, but how bad can this be?
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 可能非常糟糕。我的意思是，潜在地，当你谈论一个正在挑战 **美国** 的国家时，美国仍然是我们的传统盟友，尽管我们一直与它存在问题，但它被认为是加拿大真正的对手，就其所做的这些活动而言，它在欺凌邻国。如果它能够试图影响加拿大人，如果它能够在加拿大土地上骚扰加拿大人，那就会破坏我们的 **主权**，破坏我们的 **民主** 和我们的民主制度。对我来说，这是非常令人不安的。如果我们不能为在这里生活的人们提供保护。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: It can be very bad. I mean, potentially when you're talking about a a state that is, you know, challenging the United States, which is still our traditional ally in spite of the problems we've been having, is is considered, I would say, an adversary to, to Canada, really in these activities that it's doing, it's bullying its neighbours. And if it's able to try to influence Canadians, if it's if it's able to harass Canadians on Canadian soil, that undermines our sovereignty, that undermines our democracy and our democratic institutions. And that, for me, is very troubling. If we can't offer protections to our people that are living here.
**主持人**: 你最近在《**National Post**》上发表了一篇题为“与中国实现贸易多元化是一场输掉的博弈”的文章。为什么你这么认为？
Original English **Host**: You wrote a recent column for the National Post titled Diversifying Trade with With China. It's a losing play. Why do you think so?
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 因为，再次强调，出于我刚才提到的许多原因，你正在与一个被证明在历史上不可靠的“伙伴”打交道。而且我们谈论的不是像我们与美国之间那样的一个政府时期的问题。我指的是。在那篇文章，在那篇评论文章中，我不断指出，简而言之，中国反复对我们动用贸易武器的历史。油菜籽。是的，油菜籽。可以追溯到 2008 年。他们会找理由阻止其运输。他们会找理由改变泊位、仓储费等等以及与之相关的所有事项。有时甚至会直接拒绝接受。他们这样做是为了施压我们，试图迫使我们 conform（符合）他们想要的政策。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: Because, again, for a lot of the reasons that I just mentioned, you're you're dealing with a quote unquote partner that is been historically proven unreliable. And we're not talking about one administration like we've been having with problems with the United States. I'm talking about. And in that article, in that op ed, I continually point out, just briefly, the history of where China repeatedly weaponized trade against us. Canola. Yes, canola. Going back to 2008. Would find reasons to block its shipment. Would find reasons to change docking, storage fees and what have you and all kinds of matters related to it. And would sometimes just outright not accept it. And they did this to leverage us to try to to exert pressure on us to conform to a policy that they wanted.
**主持人**: 加拿大同意降低关税并允许中国电动汽车进入该国。从你刚才说的话来看，我感觉这不是个好主意。但是当我们谈论贸易以及与我们的南方邻国打交道时，你提到中国是第二大贸易伙伴。朝那个方向发展不是很有意义吗？
Original English **Host**: Canada agreeing to reducing tariffs and allowing Chinese EVs into the country. I can get the sense from our from what you said earlier. Not a good idea. But when we talk about trade and sort of when we talk about our neighbours to the South, we and you mentioned China being the second biggest trading partner. Does that not make sense to be going in that direction?
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 在战略性材料方面不行。我会把电动汽车归类为战略性材料，因为电动汽车涉及的技术，因为我们无法控制电动汽车收集的数据流向何处，因为我们不了解公司在中国与 **PRC 军事** 的关系。出于所有这些原因，除非我们能得到某种保证或护栏，让我们不必担心这些事情。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: Not on strategic materials. And I would put EV in the category of strategic because of the technologies that are involved in an EV, because of the fact that we won't be able to control where the data that EVs collect go, because we don't have insights on what companies relationships will be in China with the PRC military. For all those reasons, it makes it unless we can be given subtype of assurances or guardrails, that we won't have to worry about those things.
**主持人**: 但我们应该注意到，许多国家都有中国电动汽车，而且可能不会在政府或军队中使用它们。
Original English **Host**: But we should note that a number of countries do have Chinese EVs and may not use them in government. In military.
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 所以。对。我的意思是，我们遇到过一些情况，它们被限制在某些地点行驶。建议不要将手机连接到它。所以你开始问，为什么要买这样的车？如果你有这些问题，但那些其他情况也一样，不要依赖于拥有如此一体化的北美汽车市场。好的。我们这里也有汽车生产。那将受到这种贸易的冲击。但这并不意味着我们不应该与中国贸易。我们绝对应该。与中国进行贸易多元化完全没问题。问题是我们进入了战略技术和商品领域，而且我们必须了解一些公司可能与国家和军队的关系，同时还要处理他们在这里进行的活动。你做到了这一切，那么它是可能的。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: So. Right. I mean, we've had instances where they've been restricted from being driven to certain locations. Advice given where you don't connect your cell phone to it. So you start to ask, why are you buying a car like that? If you have those kinds of problems, but those other instances as well, don't rely on having such an integrated North American auto market either. Okay. And we have auto production here too. That is going to get undercut by that, that trade. But it's not to say we shouldn't trade with China. We absolutely should. And it's totally fine to diversify trade with China. It's when we get into the realms of strategic technology and goods, and we have to go in understanding the relationship some companies might have with the state and the military, and also addressing the activity they've been doing here. You do all that, then it's possible.
**主持人**: 好的。你最近在 **X** 上发帖，谈论了为什么美国与中国做生意与加拿大与中国做生意不同。是的。请阐述一下你的论点。
Original English **Host**: All right. In a recent post on X, you wrote about why the US doing business with China is different than Canada doing business with China. Yeah. Lay down the argument.
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 当然。不同之处在于美国。美国是世界上最大的经济体。所以当中国试图在某个特定行业对其施压，或试图伤害它或进行报复时，美国经济足够庞大，可以承受。简单来说，它可以承受，并且可以更强硬地报复。好的。我们没有这个选择。看看油菜籽电动汽车事件。在我看来，我们为了取消电动汽车关税而完全屈服于油菜籽。我们是否有能力报复中国，从而产生影响？似乎没有。此外，美国在出口管制、实体清单、禁止某些与中国有军事合作关系的中国公司方面拥有更多的保障措施。他们有一个从 30 年代就存在的外国代理人登记处，他们用它来对付那些实际上秘密代表 **PRC** 国家工作的人。我们没有任何这些东西。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: For sure. Different in the sense of the US. One is the world's largest economy. So when China tries to pressure them in a particular industry or tries to hurt them or retaliate, in a way the United States economy is large enough that it can absorb it. Simply put, it can absorb it, and it can retaliate harder. Okay. That we don't have that option. You look at the canola EV incident. We, in my opinion, completely buckled and caved on canola in exchange for dropping the tariff on EVs. What was our ability to retaliate to China that would have made a difference? It didn't seem like there was one. And along with that, the US has more safeguards in terms of export controls, entity lists, banning of certain Chinese companies if they have military partnerships. They have a foreign agent registry that they've had since the '30s that they use to go after people that are actually working secretly on behalf of the PRC state. We don't have any of those things.
**主持人**: 好的。无论我们喜欢与否，似乎加拿大和中国都会有关系，正如你所提到的。当然，在你的书中，你提供了一系列建议，关于加拿大可以做些什么来遏制中国的干涉。让我们听听其中的一些。
Original English **Host**: All right. Whether we like it or not, it does seem like Canada and China will have relations, as you mentioned. Of course, in your book, you offer a set of recommendations on what Canada can do to to kerb China's interference. Let us hear some of them.
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 所以，第一，我认为在 **选举融资** 方面，调查组提出的一些建议，那些是易于实施的。我认为可以立即轻松实施。我会说，在全国范围内标准化，关于选举，不仅是联邦选举，还有市级和省级选举以及提名竞选，规则应该是相同的。你应该。我不知道为什么 18 岁且是公民的人不能在提名竞选中投票。为什么我们需要将年龄降低到 14 岁左右，甚至不。这对我来说没有意义。这是一场选举。所以我认为这些都是应该做出的简单修复。但其他方面，比如 **外国代理人登记处**，我们需要它出台，我们需要它具有一定的效力，这样它就不会仅仅作为一种管理影响力的工具。换句话说，有一种险恶的活动，我们对此感到满意，只要我们能够组织和管理它，而不是真正用于威慑它，并且对这种活动施加某种成本。所以，我认为这些都是现实的修复，其中一些事情已经开始实施。我认为只需要跟进。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: So one, I think a number of recommendations that the inquiry made when it comes to election financing, those should those are easy implementations. Those should right away I think could easily be implemented. I would say standardising across the board when it comes to elections in terms of not just elections federally, but on the municipal and provincial level and in nomination contests, the rules should be the same. You should be. I don't see why you can't have people that are 18 and a citizen voting in a nomination contest. Why we need to have the age lowered to something like 14 and not even being. That doesn't make sense to me. It's it's an election. So those I think are easy fixes that should be made. But other things like the foreign agent registry, we need that to come in and we need that to have some teeth so that it doesn't just function as a way to manage influence. In other words, have a nefarious activity that we become okay with as long as we can kind of organise and manage it, one that actually is used to deter it, and there's some type of cost imposed for that kind of activity. So those are, I think, realistic fixes, that some of these things are already in play. I think they just need to be followed through.
**主持人**: 好的，丹尼斯，我们就说到这里。非常感谢你的见解。非常感谢你。
Original English **Host**: All right Dennis, we're going to leave it there. Really appreciate your insights. Thank you so much for this.
**丹尼斯·莫利纳罗**: 非常感谢你邀请我，我很感激。
Original English **Dennis Molinaro**: Thank you very much for having me I appreciate it.
### 务实接触与贸易多元化 **主持人**: 总理马克·卡尼已经明确表示，加拿大的未来涉及与中国的更紧密联系。但这是否是前进的最佳途径？林慧思（Lynette Ong）是多伦多大学中国政治学杰出教授，也是多伦多大学蒙克全球事务学院中国治理实验室主任。林慧思现在来到演播室。你好吗？
Original English **Host**: Prime Minister Mark Carney has made it clear that Canada's future involves closer ties with China. But is this the best way forward? Lynette Ong is a distinguished professor of Chinese politics at the University of Toronto, and the director of the China Governance Lab at U of T's Munk School of Global Affairs. And Lynette joins us in studio. How are you doing?
**林慧思**: 很好。你呢？
Original English **Lynette Ong**: Good. How are you?
**主持人**: 我很好。我们来谈谈。鉴于美加关系现状，有人说加拿大现在摆脱了集团政治的压力，可以以更务实的方式与中国打交道。你怎么看？
Original English **Host**: I am doing well. Now let's talk. Given the state of US-Canada relations, some say that Canada is now freed from the pressure of bloc shaped politics and can engage with China in a more pragmatic way. What are your thoughts on that?
**林慧思**: 我同意这一点。如果说集团政治是指 **美国** 及其西方盟友，我认为美国实际上已经破坏了包括加拿大和欧洲国家在内的许多盟友之间的信任。所以人们。所以各国都在努力追求自己的利益，通常是基于具体问题。而在我们这里，中国一直是第二大贸易伙伴。我认为加拿大寻求与中国建立联系，以实现贸易多元化，从美国转向中国，这是有道理的。但我认为我们不应该止步于中国。中国将是我们多元化战略的起点。我们还应该关注 **印太** 和 **欧洲**。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: I would agree with that. If by blockchain politics you mean United States and its Western allies, I think United States have actually broken trust among a lot of allies, including Canada and European countries. So people. So countries are out there trying to pursue their own interests, often on an issue by issue basis. And in our case, China has been the second largest trading partner. I think it makes sense for for Canada to look to look to China, kind of to diversify away of our trade from the United States towards China. But I think we shouldn't stop at China. China would be the beginning of our of our diversification strategy. We should also look to Indo-Pacific and Europe.
**主持人**: 好的。我们将讨论一些潜在的可以达成交易的国家。但有些人认为加拿大与北京的贸易协议是在压力下的风险管理，而不是疏远美国。你怎么看？
Original English **Host**: All right. We'll talk about some of those potential countries making deals. But some see Canada's trade deal with Beijing as risk management under pressure and not a pivot away from the US. What are your thoughts on that?
**林慧思**: 就像总理所说的，我认为这是一种购买保险的方式。是的，这是风险管理。这是不把所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。所以将我们的鸡蛋分散到许多不同的篮子里。但这也意味着我们正在疏远美国。我们正在将我们的依赖从美国转移到其他许多国家。其中之一，也是其中最大的，就是中国。所以，这有点兼而有之。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: Like the Prime Minister has put it, I think it's a way of buying insurance. Yes, it's a risk management. It's not putting all our eggs in one basket. So diversifying our eggs in many different baskets. But that also means that we are pivoting away from the United States. We are diversifying our reliance away from the United States towards a bunch of other countries. And one of them, and the largest among them would be China. So it's a bit of both.
**主持人**: 在加拿大人中，与中国的接触仍然是一个政治敏感话题，尤其是在特鲁多政府时期两国关系经历了多年的敌对之后。卡尼应该如何处理？
Original English **Host**: Among Canadians, engagement with China remains politically sensitive, following years of hostility between the two governments, especially under Trudeau. How should Carney navigate that?
**林慧思**: 我认为他必须走一条非常、非常微妙的道路。我认为到目前为止，他做得相当好，我认为。在国内方面，我们看到加拿大人对 **美国** 的态度发生了转变。在特朗普执政期间，美国在中国人中的不受欢迎程度实际上有所上升。北京的 **中国** 曾经非常不受欢迎，原因很明显。我们有两名加拿大人被拘留了 1000 天，对吧？我认为在国内方面，国内格局已经发生了一些变化，在特朗普执政期间，华盛顿特区现在比北京更不受欢迎，这反映在皮尤研究中心进行的最新民意调查中，不仅在加拿大，而且在许多西方国家。所以在那方面，他获得了一点更多的授权，但我认为政府需要走出去，不仅要向人们说明我们需要更多地关注中国，而且还要对中国保持强硬，不要忘记我们对 **台湾** **民主** 的承诺，并且能够在中国和我们对我们仍然重要的所有价值观之间取得平衡，包括 **台湾** 的民主、**人权** 问题等等。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: I think he has to walk a very fine, fine line. I think so far he has done pretty well, I would think. On the domestic front, we have seen a shift towards Canadians attitudes towards the United States. Under Trump, Unfavorability rating of the United States has actually gone up vis a vis Beijing. Beijing China used to be very unpopular in Canada for very obvious reasons. We have got two Canadians being detained for 1000 days, right. And I think on the domestic front, the domestic landscape has changed a little bit, has changed quite a bit under under Trump, Washington, D.C. is now more unpopular than Beijing, and that's reflected in the kind of latest public opinion poll, not only in Canada but across a lot of Western nations conducted by Pew Research. So on that front, he has got a little bit more mandate, but I think the government needs to go out there and not only sell to people that we need to pay more attention to China, but also be also be firm on China, not forgetting, you know, our commitment towards democracy in Taiwan and be able to come to trade between China and our commitments towards, you know, all the values that are still important to us, including democracy in Taiwan, human rights issues and so forth.
**主持人**: 强硬是什么样的？
Original English **Host**: What does firm look like?
**林慧思**: 你知道，例如，我认为我们与 **台湾** 的业务应该照常进行，你知道，应该照常进行。我们不应该过早地撤出参加台湾行程的议员。好的。对。我们不应该取消任何我们计划的与台湾的贸易协议。我们已经计划好了。我认为那将是过早地屈服。我认为那将是过早地……你知道，我认为那样，我们是在向北京发出信号，我们比他们更需要他们。我认为那不一定是真的。你知道，我认为中国正处于一个经济疲软的阶段。房地产使用占 GDP 增长的 30%。它的经济，它的经济增长尚未恢复到大流行前的水平。它可能永远不会。现在它需要依靠出口导向型增长来驱动其经济。而加拿大是它关注的几个地方之一。但更重要的是，我认为，因为加拿大与美国接壤，曾是美国最亲密的盟友，并且孟晚舟的逮捕令就来自那里。不要忘记这一点。所以，在 **美国** 和 **中国** 之间的大国竞争时代，我们会认为中国自然希望与加拿大建立更好的关系。所以从这个意义上说，你知道，我认为我们应该带着所有的信心去那里，我们确实有牌在手。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: You know, for instance, I think our business with Taiwan should go according as usual, you know, should should be as usual. We shouldn't prematurely pull MPs out of Taiwan trip. Okay. Right. We should not cancel any Taiwan trade deal that we have planned. We have planned for. I think that would be prematurely kowtowing. I think that would be prematurely being you know, I think with that, we are we are signalling to Beijing that we need them more than they need us. I think that's not necessarily true. You know, I think China is at a phase where economically it's weak. Real estate use accounts for 30% of GDP growth. Its economy, its economic growth has has not recovered to the pre-pandemic level. It probably never will. And it now needs to to depend on export led growth to drive its economy. And Canada is one of those places that it looks to. But more importantly, I think because Canada shares a border with the United States, used to be closest ally of the United States, and where the instruction to arrest Meng Wanzhou came from. Not to forget that. So in the in the age of kind of great power competition between the United States and China, we would think that China naturally wants a better relationship with Canada. So in that sense, you know, I think we should go in there, you know, with all the confidence and we, we we do have cards in our hands,
**主持人**: 好的。
Original English **Host**: Okay.
**林慧思**: 我是这么说的。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: Is what I'm saying.
**主持人**: 我想更好地了解马克·卡尼上个月的会晤，以及英国首相基尔·斯塔默的会晤。他们出来的结果非常不同。你能给我们一些关于那两次会晤是如何进行的见解吗？
Original English **Host**: I want to get a better understanding of the meetings that happened with Mark Carney just last month, but also the UK's prime minister, Keir Starmer. He had went but very different in terms of what had come out of it. Can you can you give us a little insight into how those two meetings would have gone?
**林慧思**: 是的。你知道，基尔·斯塔默，这位英国首相的北京之行，他在国内受到了抨击。对吧？但你知道，马克·卡尼在那之后去了达沃斯，然后回来时被誉为英雄。我认为他们得到了两种截然不同的接待。人们会说，英国在这次访问前给了太多东西。他批准了伦敦的巨型大使馆，人们担心可能存在间谍活动、特工和地下隧道等等。所以他在去北京之前就给了太多东西。因此，他被视为有点软弱，在与中国打交道时做出让步。而我们，我认为我们坚持得更坚定一些。而且我们实际上并没有做出很多让步。电动汽车关税的降低实际上仅限于非常少量的季度。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: Yeah. You know, Keir Starmer, the British prime minister of the Beijing trip, he was hammered at home. Right. But you know Mark Carney after that he went to Davos and then came back celebrated as a hero. They're two very different reception I think, you know, people would say that Britain gave away a little bit too much before the trip. He approved the mega embassy in in London with a lot of, you know, concern about potentially espionage and spies and, you know, underground tunnels and so on. So he gave away a little bit too much before he went to Beijing. So he was seen as kind of weak, giving concessions vis a vis China. Whereas us I think we have hold on to it a little bit more, more firmly. And we didn't actually give away a lot of concessions. The EV tariff reduction is actually restricted to a very small number of quarters.
**主持人**: 你提到了电动汽车。所以我需要谈谈一些 **关键矿产**。特朗普政府最近宣布了一个新的 **美国** 贸易集团。这将有所帮助，因为中国拥有相当大的市场份额。但加拿大尚未签署。加拿大应该签署吗？
Original English **Host**: You bring up EV. So I need to talk about some critical minerals. The Trump administration recently announced a new US trade bloc. And that would help because China owns a pretty substantial share of the market. But Canada has not signed yet. Should Canada?
**林慧思**: 我不确定美国是否有信誉动员任何国家组成贸易集团，鉴于其最近对吞并格陵兰岛的态度，疏远了一批欧洲盟友。你看看慕尼黑安全会议发生了什么。人们并不放心。信任肯定破裂了。鲁比奥。慕尼黑之后立即去了匈牙利，与维克托·欧尔班谈话。人们不知道美国站在哪里。那么，如果我们与美国达成一项关于关键矿产的贸易集团，他们可能会反过来对付我们。我认为，没有这种可预测性和可信度，就很难领导。任何联盟。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: I'm not sure whether US has the credibility to mobilise any country to form a trade bloc, with its recent behaviour tone towards taking over Greenland, alienating a bunch of European allies. You see what happened in Munich security conference. People are not reassured. Trust has definitely broken Rubio. Right after Munich went to Hungary and spoke to Viktor Orban. People don't know where the United States stands. So what if we enter into a trade bloc on critical minerals with the United States? They could turn around and do something against us. I think without that sort of predictability and credibility, it will be difficult to lead. And any sort of alliance.
**主持人**: 有了这一点。加拿大正在牵头其自身努力，在 **欧洲联盟** 和一个由 12 个国家组成的 **印太** 集团之间建立贸易集团。我们说的是，所有这些国家加起来有 15 亿人口。美国不属于这个集团。我想知道，在你提到的所有事情之后，没有美国，它能成功吗？
Original English **Host**: With that. Canada is spearheading its own efforts to create a trading bloc between the European Union and a 12 nation Indo-Pacific bloc. This is we're talking, 1.5 billion people amongst all those nations. The US is not part of this. And I'm curious, can it succeed without the US with everything that you've mentioned?
**林慧思**: 是的。这个提议是在 **CPTPP** 和一群 **欧洲联盟** 国家之间。对。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: Yeah. The proposal was between CBC and and and and a bunch of European Union countries. Right.
**主持人**: 当然，林慧思，当你提到 **CPTPP** 时，我们指的是《跨太平洋伙伴关系全面进步协定》。
Original English **Host**: And of course, Lynette, when you say CPTPP, we are talking about the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific partnership.
**林慧思**: 我认为这个想法本身就是这些国家之间的某种互补性，这些国家更多是印太地区的 **发展中国家**，而欧洲是更发达的工业化国家。所以如果这两个地区结合起来，我认为它们将构成世界 GDP 的很大一部分，这将是对 **美国** 的一个很好的制衡。我不认为这是否一定需要 **美国** 才能成功。但我认为，如果这些国家之间有足够的互补性和比较优势的差异，就能获得很多好处。是的。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: I think the very idea is kind of complementarity between these countries, which is more developing countries in the Indo-Pacific versus more, more industrialised nations in Europe. So if those two regions combined, I think would constitute a large proportion of the world's GDP, that would be a good counterbalance against the United States. I don't see that as kind of necessarily as whether we need the United States to succeed. But I think if there is enough complementarity and differences in comparative advantage among these countries, there's a lot of benefits to be gained. Yeah.
**主持人**: 这是否提供了一个机会？你提到了在达沃斯的演讲。这是中等强国的一个机会。这对加拿大来说是成为世界舞台上更具主导地位的机会吗？
Original English **Host**: Does this present a chance? You mentioned the speech at Davos. Here's an opportunity for the middle powers. Is this a chance for them to be for Canada to be more assertive on that world stage?
**林慧思**: 我认为是的，我认为是的。我认为加拿大处于领导的有利位置，因为我们曾经是美国最亲密的盟友，而现在不是了。所以我们已经对加拿大外交造成了严重的损害。我认为我们的总理，除了作为政治领导人，他也是一位知识分子，一个能够构思想法、能够阐述宏大想法并将其传达给普通人的人。结合这两点，我认为我们处于一个有利的位置来领导和动员国家，并坚定立场，让中等强国团结起来，以推进我们的利益。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: I think so I think so I think Canada is in the right place to lead because we are we used to be the closest ally to the United States and now we are not. So we have there's a lot of serious damage being done to Canadian diplomacy. And I think our prime prime minister, in addition to being a political leader, he's also an intellectual, someone who could conceptualise ideas, who could articulate kind of big ideas and deliver it to common people. With a combination of the two, I think we are in a good position to lead and mobilise countries and to stand to stand firm and get middle powers, hang together to advance our interests.
**主持人**: 好了，我们就说到这里，当然，这是我们会继续关注的事情。非常感谢你的见解。
Original English **Host**: Well, now we are going to leave it there, of course, something that we will continue to follow. Thank you so much for your insights.
**林慧思**: 谢谢你邀请我。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: Thank you for having me.
**主持人**: 我是 Jeyan。感谢收看《The Rundown》。你想了解更多关于什么的信息？发邮件给我们：therundown@TVO.org 或在社交媒体上联系我。一如既往，请告诉我们你的想法。下次再见。
Original English **Host**: I'm Jeyan. Thanks for watching The Rundown. What do you want to know more about? Email us at therundown@TVO.org or reach out to me on social media. And as always, let us know what you think. Until then, see you tomorrow.