--- author: TVO Today date: '2026-03-20' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79yWLjAyhqM speaker: TVO Today tags: - oil-prices - inflation - recession - energy-security - geopolitics title: 当前油价危机与历史对比：影响几何？ summary: 本访谈深入探讨当前油价波动，分析美国作为石油生产大国的角色，对比历次石油危机，并阐释其对全球通胀、经济衰退及政治格局的潜在影响。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: macro-economy area: finance-wealth project: [] people: - Bob Yawger companies_orgs: - Mizuho Americas products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 开场与油价历史回顾 **主持人**: 欢迎 **Bob Yawger**，他是 **Mizuho Americas** 的大宗商品专家，现 join me on the program。Bob，很高兴见到你。你怎么样？
Original English **Host**: Bob Yawger is a commodity specialist with Mizuho Americas, and he joins me now on the program. Bob, great to see you. How are you doing?
**Bob Yawger**: 非常好，感谢邀请。
Original English >> Very good. Thank you for having me.
**主持人**: 我想展示一些数据，这些数据你可能很熟悉。你已经看到过了。这是自1970年以来的 **West Texas Intermediate (WTI)** 油价历史图表。你可以看到，在70年代初期，我们看到的价格约为 **3 美元/桶**。到2020年代，历史上曾有过几次触及大约100美元，有时甚至超过100美元/桶的时刻。你看到的急剧上涨表明某种程度的 **石油冲击**。多年来，这种情况发生了很多次。
Original English >> I want to pull up some data that is probably you're no stranger to. You have seen this. This is a chart of the price history of West Texas Intermediate oil since 1970. You can see when we start sort of in the 70, we're looking at $3 US per barrel. When we look towards the 2020s, there have been some moments in history where we have hit about 100 and sometimes over $100 US per barrel. The sharp increases that you'll see indicate some kind of oil shock. And there have been many over the years.
### 当前局势与霍尔木兹海峡 **主持人**: Bob，请帮我们理解一下，现在**霍尔木兹海峡**发生了什么？霍尔木兹海峡从未像现在这样对油轮关闭过。有人甚至说，我们现在看到的情况是**前所未有**的。为什么我们没有看到油价像2000年代初期、中期那样高呢？
Original English Bob, help us understand right now what's happening with the Strait of Hormuz. Hormuz has never been closed to tankers like this before. Some have gone on to say that what we're seeing is unprecedented. Why aren't we seeing oil prices higher than, say, in the early 2000, mid 2000?
### 美国作为石油生产超级大国 **Bob Yawger**: 主要原因是，**美国**，以及在较小程度上**加拿大**，现在是石油生产超级大国。我们，美国，我们的产量非常高。我们每天生产 **1380万桶** 原油，这可以追溯到20年代初期，或者第一次伊拉克战争时期。我当时在交易大厅工作。然后在我们解放科威特时，我们大概每天生产600万桶，如果运气好的话。现在我们每天生产1380万桶。我们在北美，在美洲，整体上拥有**能源安全**。那在过去的日子里不是这种情况。即使在第二次伊拉克战争，小布什总统时期，情况也不是这样。而且，我们现在掌握的技术可以从非常狭小的空间中提取大量原油。它基本上可以从岩石中吸出原油。我们在加拿大在这方面做得很好。你们也做得很好。如果你们能在加拿大建造更多管道，你们甚至能生产更多原油。所以，是的，我们拥有丰富的原油。我们将在很长一段时间内拥有丰富的原油。这在一定程度上消除了**价格**的冲击效应，特别是对于北美**WTI**原油。
Original English >> The big reason is because the United States, and to a lesser degree Canada, are now oil producing superpowers. We, the United States, we produce way. We produce 13.8 million barrels a day of crude oil back in those early 20s or going back to the first war in Iraq. I worked on the floor. Then when we liberated Kuwait, we were probably producing 6 million barrels a day if we were lucky. Now we're at 13.8 million barrels. We have energy security in North America, in the Americas, in general. That was not the case back in those days. It was not the case even through the first through the second Iraq War with the second President Bush. That was still not the case. And the, the, the, the technology that we have at our hands now can bring a lot of crude oil out of a very tight space. It can suck basically crude oil out of rock. And we've got we are very good at that in Canada. You're very good at it also. And if you could build more pipelines in Canada, you would even be able to produce a lot more crude oil. So yeah, we have an abundance of crude oil. We're going to have an abundance of crude oil for a long time. And that kind of takes the shock effect out of the out of price, especially for North American WTI crude oil.
### Brent与WTI价差及美国出口 **Bob Yawger**: 你会看到，今天某个时候，国际基准的**Brent**合约交易价格比美国原油高出约 **20美元**，达到了近20年的高位。换句话说，来自北海的原油比今天的西德克萨斯原油每桶贵20美元。那么接下来会发生什么呢？在美国，原油没有真正的理由会大幅上涨。但是，由于比国际基准高出20美元的溢价，我们将在未来几周内大量出口原油。被困在波斯湾的原油将把客户转移到美国，美国将向他们出售大量**WTI**原油，这是一种优质原油，可以生产很多汽油。加拿大的原油，通常通过美国中西部地区输送，是一种较稠的原油。它能生产很多柴油和取暖用油，但难以运抵海港。但如果我们卖出。如果你卖给我们原油，我们可以将我们的一些供应转移到墨西哥湾沿岸，并卖出更多的原油。所以，请关注。美国出口的最高纪录约为每天560万桶。在昨天的库存报告中，我们约为490万桶。预计未来几周这一纪录将*.
Original English You'll see today at one point, the international benchmark Brent contract was trading at basically a 20 year high $20 premium to US crude oil. In other words, crude oil from the North Sea was $20 more expensive than the barrel from West Texas today. So what happens then is crude oil. There's no real reason for crude oil in the United States to go rally above and beyond. But with that $20 premium to the international benchmark, we're going to be like, we are going to be exporting barrels for size here in coming weeks. The crude oil is trapped in this in this in the Persian Gulf is going to divert their customers to the United States, who are going to sell them a lot of WTI crude oil, which is a good crude oil, makes a lot of gasoline. The Canadian barrel, which generally comes down through the mid-continent of the United States, is a thicker crude oil. It makes a lot of diesel and heating oil that has trouble making it to the sea. But we will if we sell. If you sell us that oil, we can divert some of those our supplies to the Gulf Coast and sell them even more barrels. So look for. The all time record is about 5.6 million barrels a day of US exports. We were at about 4.9 million barrels in yesterday's storage report. Look for that record to fall in coming weeks.
### 衰退风险与通胀压力 **主持人**: 我确实想问一下，你知道，长期高企的油价会考验任何国家。无论你是出口国还是进口国，这都不重要。我很好奇，请帮助我们定位一下，我们现在看到的情况，在历史记录中处于什么位置。过去哪些石油危机没有导致全球衰退？
Original English >> I do have to ask, you know, prolonged high oil prices can test any nation. It doesn't matter if you are an export or an import. I am curious help us position what we are seeing right now, sort of in the history books here. What past oil shocks did not lead to a global recession?
**Bob Yawger**: 很大程度上可以说是“触手可及”。是的。它肯定会增加这种几率。我的意思是，我们昨天交易价是100美元。我们处于**通胀压力**将要上升的区间。这会威胁到这里的**衰退**。我刚离开办公桌前读到，交易员们预计今年不会降息。他们可能不得不将加息的决定放在备用方案中，以便应对即将到来的通胀。所以情况看起来并不好。它看起来越来越像一个低增长，可能还会伴随低就业的环境。这可不是好事。我告诉你，这里最大的问题，在美国。我的意思是，我们并非对这一切免疫，尽管我们离波斯湾或中东很远，而且我们不再从那里进口原油。然而，美国汽油价格在18天内上涨了30%以上。自战争开始以来，加油站的汽油价格连续18天走高。这是战争爆发以来的每一天。所以，这会给消费者带来压力。这是导致通胀的最简单途径，就是高能源价格，因为它会渗透到许多不同的行业。所以是的，这确实是一个大问题。它不仅是通胀问题，对政府来说也是一个政治问题。我们将在11月迎来中期选举。如果人们在夏季驾驶季节开车时，支付4、5美元的汽油费，他们在投票时会记住这一点。
Original English >> It's pretty much a layup to a large degree. Yeah. It's it certainly increases the odds. I mean we traded $100 yesterday. We're in the range where inflationary pressures are going to be on the move. And it's going to threaten a recession here. I just read before I left the desk that the traders are pricing in no rate cuts this year. They have to have that rate increase in their back pocket, possibly to combat inflation moving ahead here. So it's not looking it's not a good situation. It looks it's looking more and more like a low growth, possibly low job environment moving forward from here. And that is not good. I will tell you the big problem here in the States. I mean we're not immune to all this despite the fact that we're pretty far away from the Persian Gulf or the Middle East, and the fact that we don't import barrels from there anymore. However, the price of gasoline here in the United States is up over 30% in 18 days. Since the beginning of the of the war, the price of crude of gasoline at the pump has been higher for 18 days in a row. It's been higher for every day of the war so far. So that is going to put pressure on the consumer. That is the easiest way to get to inflation is high energy prices because it bleeds through so many different industries. So yes, it's a real it's a real problem here. It's not only an inflationary problem, it's a political problem for the administration. We have the midterm elections coming up in November. And if people are driving and they're paying $4, $5 for gasoline during summer driving season, they'll remember that when they go to the polls.
### 与过往油价冲击的比较 **主持人**: Bob，你如何将这次石油危机与过去的石油危机进行比较，比如1973年的石油禁运，或者2008年油价短暂触及每桶147美元的时候？
Original English >> Bob, how would you compare this oil shock to those of the past, say, the 1973 oil embargo, or when oil prices traded at $147 per barrel briefly in 2008.
**Bob Yawger**: 2008年的情况有点像是缓慢上涨。它不一定是单日10%的飙升。而且它不是单一因素。基本上是伊拉克的**地缘政治动荡**。是中国日益增长的需求，推动了下一阶段的需求数字。还有就是美元，这三个因素合谋将原油推高至历史最高水平。但它更像是一个渐进的过程。不是一个大的单日事件。所以我想说，这一次，因为它的**快速性**，这是一个大事件。然而，我也想说，**俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争**，那是一件大事，它让**欧洲联盟**多年来依赖的石油和天然气供应离开了市场。他们不得不非常迅速地争夺新的供应。那些数字飙升至极点。那对系统来说是一个巨大的冲击。对欧洲联盟这个最大的经济体之一，也是有史以来任何一个经济体来说，都是一个巨大的冲击。所以那是一件大事。从某些方面来说，你可以说那更糟。但它，你知道，在很大程度上是“苹果与橘子”的一对比。我们还没有交易到在俄罗斯与乌克兰战争期间达到的水平。布伦特原油在战争初期交易到119.50美元，今天交易到119美元。但这仍然比我们在俄罗斯与乌克兰战争期间的水平低了大约112美元。
Original English >> The 2008 scenario was kind of a drift higher. It wasn't necessarily a one day 10% spike higher it was. And it wasn't just one factor. It was geopolitical mayhem, basically, in Iraq. It was the increasing demand by China to next level demand numbers. And it was also a, a, a the dollar, those three forces conspired to rally crude oil to the highest level of all time. But there was like, it was more of a gradual thing. It wasn't like a big one day event. So I would say this time, because of the, the quickness, it's, it's, it's, it's a big event. However, I would also say that the Russian war in Ukraine, that was a big one that left a lot of the European Union's access to what they had bet would be there. Oil and gas supplies for millennium off the market. And they had to scramble really fast to secure new supplies. And those numbers went to the moon. And that was a big shock to the system. That was a big shock to one of the biggest economies, the European Union of all time, to any, any economy. And so that was a big one. There's a lot of in some ways you could say that was worse. But it's, you know, it's it's apples and oranges at this point, to a large degree, we still haven't traded to the levels that we were at in the Russian war in Ukraine. Brent traded to $119.50 at the beginning of the war, traded to $119 today. But that's still a good $1,112 away from where we were at during the Russian war in Ukraine.
### 战争结束与基础设施破坏 **主持人**: 如果敌对行动明天就停止，全球石油和天然气需要多长时间才能恢复平衡？也许能回到2月27日美国和以色列袭击伊朗之前的水平？
Original English >> If hostilities were to cease tomorrow, how long would it take for global oil and gas to balance itself? Maybe, perhaps come back to where it was February 27th before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran?
**Bob Yawger**: 市场会一天内迅速下跌。首先，会下跌10到15美元。然后可能第二天还会继续下跌。这之前发生过。在第一次海湾战争中就发生过。市场会一天内多次触及跌停。如果这一切突然从天而降，今天就结束了，这我不会说太可能，但有可能。我会说，发生的几率为1%、2%、3%。如果那样发生，它会迅速回落。然而，毫无疑问，中东，波斯湾的生产区域存在严重的基础设施破坏。截至目前，**Kuwait Energy** 今早发布消息称，修复其设施上造成的损坏可能需要长达五个月的时间。该设施是地球上最大的**LNG**设施，占全球 **LNG** 供应量的20%，现已受损。这比我想象的要长。但他们称需要五个月修复。今天，代表120万桶炼油能力的三个炼油厂被伊朗人袭击了。在战争早期，**阿联酋**的全球第四大炼油厂被袭击。产能为每天80万桶。**沙特阿拉伯**最大的炼油厂，日产能5500万桶，也被袭击了。这些炼油厂的产量不会在第一天就恢复。第一天，你会看到原油价格的大幅波动。原油价格会大幅波动。但石油基础设施需要更长时间才能恢复。
Original English >> Market would fall really fast in one day. For starters, it would be $1,015. Move to the downside. It probably would be another one the day after that. This has happened before. This has happened in the first Gulf War. The market would trade limit down multiple times in one day. That would probably happen again to a certain degree if they just wrapped it up today from out of nowhere, which I wouldn't say is likely, but I would. I would say there's a one, two, 3% chance that it does happen. If that were to happen, it would it would pull back fast. However, there is no doubt that there's significant infrastructure destruction in the production space in the Middle East, in the Persian Gulf at this as of right now, Kuwait Energy was putting out this morning that it would take as long as five months to them to fix the damage that has been done to their facility, which is the largest LNG facility on the planet that moves 20% of all LNG supplies on the planet, is has been damaged. And that's longer than I thought. But they are putting out five months to fix that. Today, three refineries representing 1.2 million barrels of refining capacity. Were were targeted by the Iranians today, an earlier part of the war, the fourth largest refinery in the world in the United Arab Emirates, was targeted. That's 800,000 barrels a day. And the largest refinery in Saudi Arabia for 550 million barrels a day was also targeted. That production is not going to come back from those refineries. On day one, you'll get the big move in crude oil. You would get the big crude oil move in crude oil. But oil infrastructure is going to take longer to come back.
### 结语 **主持人**: 好的，Bob，我们就先聊到这里。非常感谢你带来的见解。也谢谢你的历史课。
Original English >> All right, Bob, we are going to have to leave it there. Really appreciate your insights on this. And thanks for the history lesson as well.