--- author: New York Times Podcasts date: '2026-01-07' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZOJg1WP724 speaker: New York Times Podcasts tags: - midterm-election - political-strategy - economic-issue - party-division - candidate-selection title: 2026年国会中期选举：两党机遇与挑战 summary: 本期播客探讨2026年美国中期选举，分析共和党因经济问题（高物价、医疗可负担性）和内部派系斗争而普遍悲观，士气低落并出现议员离职潮。同时，节目审视民主党的“焦虑乐观主义”，其信心源于特朗普支持率下滑和历史中期选举趋势，但也面临选区划分不公导致竞争性席位减少以及初选阶段意识形态和代际冲突等挑战。讨论涵盖两党最佳与最差情景预测。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: politics-society area: society-thinking project: [] people: - Donald Trump - Mike Johnson companies_orgs: - Republican Party - Democratic Party - United States Congress - White House products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 2026年中期选举展望 **Michael Baro**: 2026年伊始，国会中期选举年也随之启动。这场竞选将决定民主党能否制衡**唐纳德·特朗普总统**的超凡权力，抑或共和党能否继续掌控华盛顿的每一个影响力杠杆。今天，我的同事**安妮·卡尼**和**沙恩·戈德马赫**将就两党面临的机遇与风险进行探讨。今天是1月7日星期三。安妮，2026年大选，我们来了。
Original English **Michael Baro**: As 2026 gets underway, so does a midterm election year for control of **Congress**, a campaign that will determine whether **Democrats** can operate as a check against the extraordinary power of **President Trump** or whether **Republicans** can hold on to every lever of influence in Washington. Today, my colleagues **Annie Carney** and **Shane Goldmacher** on the opportunities and perils for both parties. It's Wednesday, January 7th. Annie, 2026 elections, here we come.
**Annie Carney**: 我们来了。
Original English **Annie Carney**: Here we come.
**Michael Baro**: 或者说，我们已经身处其中。本期节目将为美国政治的这一年提供一份路线图和入门指南。尽管目前国会很多目光都集中在**委内瑞拉**，但焦点在于这是一个选举年，一个非常重要的中期选举年将在11月到来。11月听起来很遥远，但在政治中，你知道，时间并不多，这次选举利害攸关。所以我们请你来谈谈共和党在这场选举中的情况，以及国会共和党人现在是如何考虑规划，或者说，也许是恐惧这场即将到来的选举的。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Or I guess here we are. This episode is going to be a road map and a primer for this year ahead in American politics because while a lot of eyes are on **Venezuela** right now in **Congress**, which you cover, the focus is on the reality that it is an election year, a very big **midterm election** year coming up in November. And November sounds very far away, but as you know well in politics that really isn't much time at all and there's a lot at stake in this election. So we are turning to you to talk about the **Republican** side of that election and how **Republicans** in **Congress** are now thinking about planning for or perhaps dreading this coming election.
**Annie Carney**: 我认为“恐惧”是这里最恰当的词。共和党去年底对他们能否保住**众议院**控制权感到非常悲观，这很大程度上是因为他们的党未能解决目前困扰**美国经济**的问题。
Original English **Annie Carney**: I think that dreading is the correct word here. **Republicans** ended last year feeling very pessimistic about their chance of holding on to control of the **House** and that's in a large part because their party has failed to fix what ails the **American economy** right now.
**Michael Baro**: 也就是高物价。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Namely high prices.
**Annie Carney**: 高物价，高水电费，美国人看看他们的账单，他们现在过得并不好。
Original English **Annie Carney**: High prices, high utility bills. Americans can look at their receipts and they are not doing well right now.
**Michael Baro**: 是的，失败的账单就是字面意义上的账单。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Right, the receipts for the failure are literally the receipts.
**Annie Carney**: 正是如此。没有什么比共和党人将今年的选举年起始于一个多年来一直是他们政治上最大弱点的问题——**医疗保健**——更能说明他们所面临的严峻局面了。
Original English **Annie Carney**: Correct. And nothing better illustrates the dire situation the **Republicans** are walking into this election year than the fact that **Republicans** set themselves up to start the year on an issue, **healthcare**, that has for years been their biggest weakness politically.
**Michael Baro**: 能否解释一下为什么共和党会在2026年以**医疗保健**问题开局？因为在2025年的最后几周，国会共和党人对他们未能解决**可负担性**问题感到非常沮丧，以至于少数人实际上背离了党的领导层，与民主党人联手，强行投票延长**可负担医疗法案 (Affordable Care Act, ACA)**的补贴。因此，这次投票将在违背**迈克·约翰逊**议长意愿的情况下提交给大会，并凸显出一个选民普遍认为民主党在**医疗保健**方面更强的问题。
Original English **Michael Baro**: And explain why **Republicans** are going to be kicking off 2026 on **healthcare**. Because in the final weeks of 2025, congressional **Republicans** were so despondent about their overall failure to confront **affordability** that a handful of them actually break with their party leadership and join with **Democrats** to force a vote on extending subsidies to the **Affordable Care Act**. So, this vote is coming to the floor against **Mike Johnson**'s wishes and highlighting an issue where voters by and large think **Democrats** are much stronger when it comes to **healthcare**.
**Michael Baro**: 是的。从政治角度来看，共和党在12月最后几周的举动意义重大，因为他们基本上投票支持了**可负担医疗法案**，而这在过去十年里一直是许多国会共和党人的头号公敌。你是不是在暗示他们将在未来几天内再次强化对**ACA**的这种认可？
Original English **Michael Baro**: Right. And just as a political matter, what the **Republicans** did in the final weeks of December was enormous because they basically voted to endorse in a real sense the **Affordable Care Act**, which is public enemy number one for many congressional **Republicans** and has been for a decade. And you're suggesting that they're going to reinforce that approval for the **ACA** in the coming days.
**Annie Carney**: 是的，多年来共和党人一直对如何处理**ACA**存在分歧，但这表明摇摆选区中的温和派共和党人感受到了巨大的压力，他们觉得需要与民主党人联手，争取这些延期，否则就有失去席位的风险。既然我们谈到这个话题，共和党人与党派决裂是否会帮助**可负担医疗法案**补贴的延期在未来几天内通过**众议院**？
Original English **Annie Carney**: Yeah, **Republicans** have been divided about what to do about the **ACA** for years, but this is how much swing district moderate **Republicans** are feeling the heat that they felt they needed to join **Democrats** and to fight for these extensions or risk losing their seats. And just because we're on the subject, will the **Republicans** breaking with their party help pass the extension of these **Affordable Care Act** subsidies in the **House** in the next couple days?
**Annie Carney**: 它可能会在**众议院**通过，但共和党似乎不会在**参议院**通过它。而且总统绝不会签署这项法案使其成为法律。他不会想奖励那些将**ACA**延期作为其整个政治策略核心信息的民主党人。
Original English **Annie Carney**: It could pass in the **House**, but it doesn't seem that **Republicans** are going to pass it in the **Senate**. And the president would never sign this into law. He would not want to reward **Democrats** who have made this **ACA** extension the central message of their entire political strategy.
**Michael Baro**: 是吗？所以我们将在未来几天以共和党人内部一场重大的公开斗争来开启今年。这场斗争可能会制造一场奇观，强化民主党的策略，即共和党人未能理解**可负担性**问题，尤其是**医疗保健**的**可负担性**。这就是共和党人开启这个选举年的方式。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Right? So, we're going to begin this year in the next couple days with **Republicans** having a big public battle among themselves. One that's probably will create a spectacle that reinforces the **Democratic** strategy that **Republicans** don't get it on **affordability**, especially the **affordability** of **health care**. That's how **Republicans** are starting this election year.
**Annie Carney**: 是吗？我必须说，为**特朗普**工作的共和党民意调查专家**托尼·法布里齐奥**去年夏天发布了一份备忘录，警告各级共和党人，如果他们不支持这些**ACA**税收抵免，那将是政治上的失职，对党来说将是一场灾难。
Original English **Annie Carney**: Right? I have to say that **Tony Fabrizio**, **Republican** pollster who works for **Trump**, put out a memo last summer warning **Republicans** at all levels that if they did not get behind these **ACA** tax credits, it would be political malpractice and a disaster for the party.
**Annie Carney**: 现在，一些共和党人会说还早着呢。离11月还有很长一段时间。他们有充足的时间来改变话题，但这绝对不是他们希望开启这个选举年的方式。
Original English **Annie Carney**: Now, some **Republicans** will say it's still early. There's a long way to go to November. They have plenty of time to change the conversation, but this is most definitely not how they wanted to start off this election year.
**Michael Baro**: 那么，把这场关于**医疗保健**的斗争，放在共和党人目前在中期选举前感受到的更广泛的恐惧背景下吧，即使他们说，理论上他们有充足的时间来恢复元气。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Well, put this fight over **healthcare** into the larger context of dread that **Republicans** seem to be feeling right now heading into the midterms, even if, as they say, they have plenty of time in theory to try to recover their footing.
### 共和党士气低落与议员离职潮 **Annie Carney**: 所以，这只是一个关于一个极度沮丧、士气低落的政党更大故事的最新篇章。这一年，**白宫**一直在全国范围内推行**重新划分选区**的策略，从**得克萨斯州**开始。这一直被视为如果你担心无法赢得现有划定的常规选区图，才会采取的行动。只有当你认为它能给你带来政治优势时，你才会费心去**重新划分选区**。所以，**白宫**在全国各州推动了这项策略，他们认为在那里可以多赢得几个席位。
Original English **Annie Carney**: So this is the latest chapter in a bigger story about an incredibly frustrated, demoralized party right now. All year the **White House** has been driving this strategy of doing **redistricting** across the country, starting with **Texas**. And this was always viewed as something that you do if you are worried about winning the regular maps as they are drawn now. You would only bother to **redistrict** if you thought it would give you a political edge. So, the **White House** pushed this in states across the country where they thought they could gain a few seats.
**Michael Baro**: 是吗？通过字面上将民主党人及其选民从这些国会选区图中排除？
Original English **Michael Baro**: Right? By literally writing **Democrats** and their voters out of these congressional maps?
**Annie Carney**: 是的。但正是在这里，一个长期以来让选民大失所望的民主党领导层真正展现了一些骨气并进行了反击。纽约州民主党人、少数党领袖**哈基姆·杰弗里斯**在支持**重新划分选区**方面非常积极地采取了以牙还牙的策略。如果他们要对**得克萨斯州**这样做，我们就会对**加利福尼亚州**这样做。
Original English **Annie Carney**: Right? But here is where a **Democratic** leadership that has widely disappointed voters for a long time really showed some backbone and pushed back. **Hakeem Jeffries**, **Democrat** of New York and minority leader, was very aggressive in supporting tit for tat on **redistricting**. If they're going to do **Texas**, we're going to do **California**.
**Michael Baro**: 所以，这基本上引发了一场军备竞赛，最终基本抵消了。
Original English **Michael Baro**: So, it's basically set off an arms race that is adding up to pretty much a wash.
**Annie Carney**: 全国各地的**重新划分选区**之战是否给共和党人带来了他们保持**众议院**所需的足够优势，目前尚不清楚。
Original English **Annie Carney**: It's not clear that the **redistricting** battles across the country have given **Republicans** anywhere near the margin that they would need to feel confident about keeping the **House**.
**Michael Baro**: 是吗？这意味着共和党人必须尝试以老式的方式获胜，即依靠他们的政绩。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Right? Which means **Republicans** have to try to win the old-fashioned way, running on their record.
**Annie Carney**: 是的，他们没有什么可依靠的政绩。
Original English **Annie Carney**: Right? And they don't have a lot to run on.
**Michael Baro**: 他们在华盛顿已经完全掌控了一年，但实际上只通过了一项法案，那个“**大漂亮法案**”。
Original English **Michael Baro**: They've had full control in Washington for a year now, and they've really only passed one bill, the **big beautiful bill**.
**Annie Carney**: 这也算有点东西。
Original English **Annie Carney**: Which is something.
**Michael Baro**: 这也算有点东西。他们想强调减税，但那项法案也包括了对**医疗补助计划 (Medicaid)**的大幅削减，这影响了他们的选民。
Original English **Michael Baro**: It's something. And they want to highlight the tax cuts, but that bill also included deep cuts to **Medicaid** that affect their voters.
**Annie Carney**: 是吗？
Original English **Annie Carney**: Right?
**Michael Baro**: 所以，这是一个效率低下的国会。他们基本上只是对**白宫**想要的一切都说了“是”，或者完全被排除在**白宫**的决策过程之外，无论是关闭联邦机构，还是执行上周在**委内瑞拉**的军事行动，国会对此完全不知情。他们放弃了自己的权力，在这个过程中变得非常痛苦。
Original English **Michael Baro**: So, it was an unproductive **Congress**. They've basically said yes to everything that the **White House** wants or been totally cut out of the **White House**'s decision-making process, whether it's shutting down federal agencies or carrying out last week's military operation in **Venezuela**, which **Congress** was kept completely in the dark about. They've given up their power and they've just become miserable in the process.
**Annie Carney**: 所以，**众议院**的士气非常糟糕。当**马乔丽·泰勒·格林**宣布她将辞职并提前离任时，她的许多同事私下里都感到有点嫉妒，他们会告诉我“那听起来很棒”。这就是许多**众议院**共和党人听到这个消息时的感受。他们中很多人是否也在考虑或决定效仿她离任？
Original English **Annie Carney**: So, the morale in the **House** is terrible. And when **Marjorie Taylor Greene** announced that she was resigning and leaving early, a lot of her colleagues privately felt jealous, they would tell me that sounds great was how a lot of **House Republicans** felt when they heard that news. And are many of them thinking about or deciding to follow her out the door?
**Annie Carney**: 她所做的就是宣布她将在任期结束前提前离职，除非有健康问题或重大丑闻，否则这种情况很少发生。我的意思是，你的选民选举你完成任期。所以我认为不会有其他人会提前效仿她离职。但很多人选择不再竞选连任。
Original English **Annie Carney**: So what she did is, announced that she's leaving early before the end of her term, which really doesn't happen unless you have a health issue or a huge scandal. I mean, your voters elected you to serve out your term. So I don't think anyone else will follow her out early. But a lot of people are choosing not to run again.
**Don Bacon**: 今天，我宣布我不会竞选连任。今年最大的例子之一将是**唐·培根**。
Original English **Don Bacon**: Today, I am announcing I'm not running for reelection. One of the biggest examples this year would be **Don Bacon**.
**Don Bacon**: 突然间我感到很激动。这十年很棒。
Original English **Don Bacon**: Suddenly I feel emotional. It's been a great 10 years.
**Annie Carney**: 他是一位老派的共和党人，来自**内布拉斯加州**的温和派。他宣布他将退休。这对共和党保住**众议院**的机会是一个巨大的打击。
Original English **Annie Carney**: He's an old-fashioned **Republican**, a moderate from **Nebraska**. And he announced that he will retire. That's a huge blow to **Republicans** chances of keeping the **House**.
**Michael Baro**: 为什么？
Original English **Michael Baro**: Why?
**Annie Carney**: 因为那个席位很可能会在下次选举中落入民主党之手。
Original English **Annie Carney**: Because that seat will likely go to a **Democrat** in the next election.
**Michael Baro**: 是吗？
Original English **Michael Baro**: Right?
**Annie Carney**: 但离开国会的不仅仅是像**唐·培根**这样的温和派。我们看到一些自称“超级MAGA”的议员也选择退出。**埃莉斯·斯特凡尼克**在圣诞节前几天表示，她将在任期结束时退休。
Original English **Annie Carney**: But it's not just moderates like **Don Bacon** who are leaving **Congress**. We've seen some lawmakers who call themselves ultra maga head for the exits. **Elise Stefanik** in the days before Christmas said she's going to retire at the end of her term.
**新闻记者**: 领导团队成员出来暗示议长是个骗子，他是个政治新手，他说了各种各样**埃莉斯·斯特凡尼克**所说的话，这简直是闻所未闻。
Original English **新闻记者**: Having a member of the leadership team come out and suggest that the speaker was a liar that he was a political novice that he was all sorts of things that **Elise Stefanik** said is just unheard of.
**Annie Carney**: 她对**约翰逊议长**领导**众议院**的方式感到非常厌倦。她一直在公开批评，并说她觉得受到了他的不公正对待。
Original English **Annie Carney**: She's been incredibly fed up with **Speaker Johnson**'s leadership of the **House**. Has been criticizing publicly and saying she's felt mistreated by him.
**Mike Johnson**: 我不完全知道为什么**埃莉斯**不给我打电话。我昨天给她发了短信。她很生气。
Original English **Mike Johnson**: I don't exactly know why **Elise** won't just call me. I texted her yesterday. She's upset.
**Annie Carney**: 私下里，她对**唐纳德·特朗普**及其对待她的方式感到沮丧。还有**南希·梅斯**。
Original English **Annie Carney**: Privately. She's been frustrated with **Donald Trump** and his treatment of her. You have **Nancy Mace**.
**新闻记者**: 南卡罗来纳州共和党国会女议员**南希·梅斯**在《**纽约时报**》发表了一篇题为《国会有何意义？》的评论文章。
Original English **新闻记者**: **Republican** Congresswoman **Nancy Mace** of South Carolina has an op-ed in the **New York Times** entitled, "What's the point of **Congress**?"
**Annie Carney**: 她也一直公开批评**迈克·约翰逊**。她部分写道：“**南希·佩洛西**是本世纪比任何共和党人都更有效的众议院议长。”她不打算竞选连任，而是试图竞选南卡罗来纳州州长。所以，这两位女性确实说明了许多共和党人，即使是那些自诩追随**特朗普**的人，现在感受到的士气低落。
Original English **Annie Carney**: Who has also been publicly critical of **Mike Johnson**. She writes in part, quote, "**Nancy Pelosi** was a more effective **House Speaker** than any **Republican** this century. She's not going to run for reelection, trying to run for governor of South Carolina instead." So, those two women really speak to how demoralized a lot of **Republicans**, even those who have fashioned themselves after **Trump**, are feeling right now.
### 共和党中期选举策略与前景 **Michael Baro**: 那么，**众议院**共和党人既无法解决**可负担性**问题，又在**众议院**的工作中感到痛苦，其中一些人退休，使得这些席位对民主党人来说非常容易争取。像**南希·梅斯**、**埃莉斯·斯特凡尼克**等其他人也退休了，我猜这些席位将由其他共和党人填补。那么，共和党在中期选举中的策略是什么？如果他们不喜欢目前与他们相关的讯息，他们会说他们的讯息将是什么？
Original English **Michael Baro**: So with **House Republicans** being both unable to conquer the **affordability** issue and becoming miserable in their jobs in the **House**, some of them retiring and making the seats very getable for **Democrats**. Others like **Nancy Mace**, **Elise Stefanik** retiring and I assume the seats will be filled by other **Republicans**. What is the strategy for the **Republicans** in the midterms? What are they saying their message is going to be if they don't really like the message that's attached to them at the moment?
**Annie Carney**: 听着，他们中的很多人认为**可负担性**将是他们的策略，他们有时间以令人信服的方式向选民阐述这一点，即使总统称之为骗局。我们会看看这是否对他们有效。然后，我认为对于竞争激烈选区的共和党人来说，策略将是说：“我站出来反对我的党。我强行投票延长了**可负担医疗法案**补贴。”这将是他们正在提出的论点。
Original English **Annie Carney**: Look, a lot of them think that **affordability** will be the strategy and they have time to talk about it in a convincing way to their constituents even if the president is calling it a hoax. We'll see if that's going to work for them. Then, I think for **Republicans** in competitive districts, the strategy will be saying, "I stood up to my party. I forced this vote on **affordable care act** subsidies extension. That will be their case they're making."
**Michael Baro**: 是吗？
Original English **Michael Baro**: Right?
**Annie Carney**: 这将很难推销，因为归根结底，这些补贴不会通过。所以，我的意思是，他们所做的不过是传递信息，如果你的选民在你在任期间的生活仍然更糟，那么这种信息传递只能走到这一步。然后他们只剩下这个希望：民主党人会推出像**佐拉·马马尼**这样极左、进步和社会主义的候选人，并说服他们的选民，这才是广义上的替代方案，并将民主党人打上激进分子的烙印，即使在某些选区，他们绝对不是。那么，你认为国会共和党人，尤其是**众议院**的共和党人，在未来10个月左右的最佳情景会是什么？我的意思是，我不是让你猜测11月选举中会发生什么数字，而是在共和党人看来，这会如何发展得非常好，又会如何发展得非常糟糕？
Original English **Annie Carney**: Which will be a hard sell because at the end of the day, the subsidies will not pass. So, I mean, what they did amounts to a little more than messaging, which can only take you so far if the lives of your constituents are still worse off while you were in office. And then they're left with this hope that **Democrats** run people like **Zora Mamani** who are far-left and progressive and socialist and convince their voters that that's the alternative broadly speaking and brand **Democrats** as radicals even when in some districts, they're absolutely not. So, what do you think the best case scenario for congressional **Republicans**, especially in the **House**, will be over the next 10 months or so? I mean, I'm not asking you to guess numerically what's going to happen in November's election, but in the **Republicans** minds, how does this go really well and how does it go really bad?
**Michael Baro**: 是的。我的意思是，我认为最好的情况是他们打破传统，保住**众议院**。他们会失去几个**参议院**席位，但保住**参议院**。而我认为最坏的情况，也是更多共和党人真正考虑的情况，是共和党普通成员与**迈克·约翰逊议长**之间的不和，可能导致在中期选举前罢免他们自己的议长。这是一种可能性。这可能意味着**众议院**的损失幅度比任何人想象的都要大。然后民主党人将掌控**特朗普**总统任期最后几年的所有关键委员会，这意味着监督委员会和司法委员会可能会进行认真的调查，并要求所有这些不与国会分享信息的机构提供信息。他们将拥有传票权。所以，如果民主党人重新掌控**众议院**，华盛顿的动态将发生巨大变化。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Right. I'd say that the best case is that they buck conventionalism and hold the **House**. They lose a few **Senate** seats, but hold the **Senate**. And I guess the worst case scenario, which I think is the one that more **Republicans** are really entertaining, is this bad blood between **Republican** rank and file members and **Speaker Mike Johnson**, could lead to ousting their own speaker before the midterms. That's a possibility. Could mean a loss of the **House** by a wider margin than anyone even thinks. And then **Democrats** controlling all of the key committees in the final years of **Trump**'s presidency, which would mean the oversight committee and the judiciary committee potentially doing serious investigations and demanding information from all these agencies that are not sharing information with **Congress**. They would have subpoena power. So it would change the dynamic in Washington dramatically for **Democrats** to regain control of the **House**.
**Annie Carney**: 是的。因此共和党人感到恐惧。
Original English **Annie Carney**: Right. Thus the **Republican** dread.
**Michael Baro**: 正是如此。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Correct.
**Michael Baro**: 好的，安妮，谢谢你。我很感谢。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Well, Annie, thank you for that. I appreciate it.
**Annie Carney**: 谢谢你邀请我。新年快乐。
Original English **Annie Carney**: Thank you for having me. Happy New Year.
**Michael Baro**: 干杯。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Cheers.
### 民主党的“焦虑乐观主义” **Michael Baro**: 休息回来后，**沙恩·戈德马赫**将谈论民主党。我们马上回来。沙恩，迈克尔，感谢你代表民主党方面参与我们的对话。如果正如**安妮·卡尼**刚才告诉我们的，共和党人对他们今年的中期选举前景，尤其是在**众议院**的前景感到恐惧，那这是否几乎肯定意味着民主党人充满了恐惧的反面？那会是什么呢？
Original English **Michael Baro**: After the break. **Shane Goldmacher** on the **Democrats**. We'll be right back. Shane, Michael, thank you for representing the **Democratic** side of the ledger in our conversation here. If, as **Annie Carney** just told us, **Republicans** are filled with dread about their prospects, especially in the **House** in this year's upcoming **midterm elections**, doesn't that almost certainly mean that **Democrats** are filled with whatever the opposite of dread is? And what would that be?
**Shane Goldmacher**: 我会说民主党人普遍充满了“**焦虑的乐观主义**”。而乐观的理由非常明确。他们看到在特别选举中表现出色，11月取得了胜利，以及**特朗普**在选民最关心的物价和经济问题上的支持率下滑。他们说，这正是民主党人希望在**唐纳德·特朗普**执政第一年结束时看到的政治环境。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: I would say that **Democrats** are broadly filled with an **anxious optimism**. And the reasons to be optimistic are pretty clear. They see overperformances in special elections victories in November and **Trump**'s slipping approval ratings on the most important issues to voters prices and the economy. And they say this is the kind of political environment the **Democrats** were hoping for at the end of **Donald Trump**'s first year.
**Michael Baro**: 在这种环境下，他似乎在经济问题上公然失误，并嘲笑**可负担性**的概念。他不仅有时嘲笑它，还表明他专注于与自己相关的其他事情。无论是……
Original English **Michael Baro**: One where he seems to be openly fumbling on the economy and mocking the idea of **affordability**. Not just mocking it at times, but showing that he is focused on other things that are personal to himself. Whether it is...
**Shane Goldmacher**: **特朗普**肯尼迪中心。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: **Trump** Kennedy Center.
**Michael Baro**: 是的，**特朗普**肯尼迪中心，给椭圆形办公室的部分镀金，在政府停摆时建造一个宴会厅。那是他在2025年底的重点。而2026年则以关注外交事务，关注**委内瑞拉**开始，对吧？
Original English **Michael Baro**: Yeah, **Trump** Kennedy Center, gilding parts of the Oval Office, building a ballroom while the government was shut down. That was his focus at the end of 2025. And 2026 began with a focus on foreign affairs, on **Venezuela**, right?
**Shane Goldmacher**: 随着**尼古拉斯·马杜罗**被捕。这与他竞选时提出的“**美国优先**”品牌并不完全吻合。这对于大多数美国人来说，绝不是一个柴米油盐的问题。我认为所有这些都促成了一个总统的形象，他专注于自己，专注于他在历史上的声誉，而不是投票选举他为总统的美国人的个人财务状况。所以我认为民主党人开始认为，这种分心、自我放纵的总统形象正在开始突破。而且选民最近和历史上对共和党修复经济的信任正在减弱。此外，从历史上看，执政党在中期选举中会失去席位，对吧？共和党拥有的优势如此微小，以至于即使在非浪潮年，也应该让民主党获得多数席位。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: With the arrest of **Nicholas Maduro**. And it doesn't exactly fit with the **America First** branding that he ran on. This is hardly a kitchen table issue for most Americans. And I think all of these things have fed into this image of a president who is focused on himself, on his reputation in history rather than the personal finances of the Americans who voted to make him president. And so I think that **Democrats** are starting to think that that image of a president who is distracted, who is self-indulgent, that that is starting to break through. And the trust that voters have had recently and historically in the **Republican Party** to fix the economy is waning. And plus, historically, the party in power loses seats in the midterms, right? And the margins **Republicans** have are so small and so slim that even a non-wave year should give **Democrats** a majority.
**Michael Baro**: 当你说“优势”时，你简单地意思是，当然，共和党**众议院**多数席位中只有少数共和党人。所以即使他们失去三、四、五个席位，民主党人也会突然控制美国**众议院**。
Original English **Michael Baro**: And when you say margins, what you simply mean is of course that there are literally only a handful of **Republicans** in the **Republican House** majority. So even if they lose what three, four, five seats, **Democrats** suddenly control the **United States House of Representatives**.
**Shane Goldmacher**: 所以，目前的环境是民主党人乐观的理由。但焦虑来自其他一些因素，那就是这些席位是什么样的，以及选区图实际看起来如何？从历史上看，**众议院**有很多席位是可以争夺的，但这个数字正在不断缩小，这非常重要，因为这意味着即使有所谓的“蓝色浪潮”，假设民主党人比他们在2024年的表现高出七八个百分点。那也无法像十年前那样，赢得那么多共和党席位。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: And so the environment is the reason for optimism right now for **Democrats**. But the anxiousness comes from some of the other factors which is what are those seats and what does the map actually look like? And historically there have been a ton of seats that have been up for grabs in the **House of Representatives** and that number is shrinking and shrinking and it's really important because it means even if there is a quote unquote blue wave. Let's say **Democrats** overperform by seven or eight percentage points from what they did in 2024. Well, that doesn't capture as many **Republican** seats as it might have a decade ago.
**Michael Baro**: 如果你把所有摇摆不定的席位和倾向民主党的席位，都给了民主党人，对吧，所有最具竞争力的席位，他们最终会达到220出头，而**众议院**需要218个席位才能获得多数。所以，即使横扫这些摇摆席位，也只是让民主党人勉强过线。这种即使蓝色浪潮也无法让民主党人赢得那么多席位的现实，难道不正是我们多年来一直在讨论的延续吗？即存在如此多的**党派不公正划分选区**，以至于真的没有多少紫色席位留下了。
Original English **Michael Baro**: And if you take all the seats that are in the toss-up category and the leaning **Democratic** seats, and you give them all to the **Democrats**, right, all the most competitive seats, they end up in like the low 220s and you need 218 seats in the **House** for a majority. So, even sweeping these tossup seats just gets the **Democrats** over the line. And is this reality that even a blue wave won't get **Democrats** that many seats, is that the extension of the conversation we've been having with you for years? The fact that there's been so much **partisan gerrymandering**, there really aren't any purple seats left.
**Shane Goldmacher**: 这部分是**党派不公正划分选区**。它也是美国更广泛的趋势，即选民的**自我分化**。蓝色区域变得更蓝，红色区域变得更红。所以即使你无意进行不公正划分，人们也已经自我选择进入了……
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: It's partly **partisan gerrymandering**. It's also a broader trend in America, which is **self-sorting** by voters. The blue areas are getting bluer and the red areas are getting redder. And so even if you're not intending to jerrymander people, they've self-selected into...
**Michael Baro**: 是的，我们谈过这个，自我划分选区。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Right, we talked about this, the self gerrymandering.
**Shane Goldmacher**: 是的。进入他们自己的社区。所以正是这种结合导致了选区图的缩小，给民主党人留下了更小的容错空间。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: Yeah. Into their own communities. And so it's that combination that's led to a shrunken map that leaves less margin for error for **Democrats**.
**Michael Baro**: 除了选区图使得任何人很难赢得那么多席位之外，还有什么会让民主党人对2026年感到焦虑？
Original English **Michael Baro**: What else beyond a map that makes it hard for anybody to pick up all that many seats will make **Democrats** anxious about 2026?
### 民主党初选的挑战 **Shane Goldmacher**: 候选人，对吧？民主党明年将面临异常多的激烈**初选**，因为当你失去权力时，你会进行一些反思。你做了什么？你哪里做错了？以及你希望谁在未来代表你？
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: The candidates, right? The **Democratic Party** has an unusually large number of intense **primaries** that they're facing next year because when you're tossed from power, you have some introspection. What did you do? Where did you go wrong? And who do you want to represent you in the future?
**Shane Goldmacher**: 而且在全国各地，都有这些**初选**，它们正在考验民主党内部的一些分歧。所以，谁在这些竞选中脱颖而出也将是一个非常重要的因素。我们说过民主党人很有机会拿下**众议院**。但他们很难同时拿下**参议院**。为什么？共和党人在**参议院**有53个席位，而民主党人在2026年赢得**参议院**的机会并不多。有**苏珊·柯林斯**，她是2024年**唐纳德·特朗普**输掉的州中唯一一位共和党参议员。还有**北卡罗来纳州**，那是一个空缺席位。还有**谢罗德·布朗**，前**俄亥俄州**民主党参议员，再次参选。但即使他们赢得了所有这三个州，民主党人仍然无法回到多数地位。那只会让他们回到50个席位。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: And across the map, there are these **primaries** that are testing some of the disagreements that the **Democratic Party** has. And so, who emerges in those races is also going to be an important factor. We said the **Democrats** have a good chance to take the **House**. It's hard for them to take the **Senate** at the same time. Why? **Republicans** have 53 seats in the **Senate**, and there aren't many opportunities for the **Democrats** to win the **Senate** in 2026. There's **Susan Collins**, who is the only **Republican** senator in a state that **Donald Trump** lost in 2024. You've got **North Carolina**. It's an open seat. You've got **Sherrod Brown**, the former **Democratic** senator from **Ohio**, running again. But even if they won all three of those states, **Democrats** are still not back in the majority. That would only get them back to 50.
**Michael Baro**: 是吗？当总统是共和党人时，50个席位是不够的，因为**J.D.万斯**会打破平局，支持共和党。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Right? And 50 is not enough when the president is **Republican** because **JD Vance** would break the tie in favor of **Republicans**.
**Shane Goldmacher**: 顺便说一句，民主党人也有自己的脆弱席位，对吧？他们必须赢得所有这些席位并保住自己的席位。在**众议院**和**参议院**的竞选中，人们真正担心的是，该党最终会提名那些要么不符合主流、要么有不良包袱的人，最终让他们失去可能获胜的竞选。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: And **Democrats** have, by the way, their own vulnerable seats up too, right? They have to win all those and hold their own seats. And there's real fear in **House** races and in **Senate** races that the party will end up nominating people who are either outside the mainstream, who have bad baggage, and end up costing them potentially winnable races.
**Michael Baro**: 让我们谈谈其中一些**初选**。你暗示的是两党长期以来一直在进行的一场斗争，那就是，对于一个政党来说，举行**初选**让候选人决定他们想在普选中成为哪种共和党人、哪种民主党人，这是否更健康？还是说这只会分散注意力、耗费成本，并损害普选候选人？听起来民主党人已经为自己做出了这个决定。你说有很多**初选**。在像**缅因州**这样的地方，这些**初选**的主要冲突点是什么？
Original English **Michael Baro**: Let's talk about some of these **primaries**. And what you're hinting at is a fight that both parties have been having for such a long time, which is is it healthier for a party to have **primaries** where candidates sort out which kind of **Republican**, which kind of **Democrat** they want to be in the general election or is it just distracting and costly and does it damage the candidate for the general election? It sounds like **Democrats** have made that decision for themselves. You're saying there are a lot of **primaries**. What are the main lines of conflict in these **primaries** in a place like **Maine**?
**Shane Goldmacher**: 民主党内部存在一些分歧领域。首先是意识形态上的。你是进步派吗？你是温和派吗？其次是代际斗争。你是老派的吗？你是新派的还是下一代的？而其中一个正在上演的地方就是**缅因州**。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: There's a number of lanes the **Democratic Party** has disagreements over. The first is ideological. Are you a progressive? Are you a moderate? The second is a generational fight. Are you from the old guard? Are you from the new guard or the next generation? And one of the places that that is playing out is in **Maine**.
**Janet Mills**: 我的父亲是第七代市长，他为那些无法为自己发声的人挺身而出。
Original English **Janet Mills**: You know, my father was a seventh generation mayor who stood up for people who couldn't stand up for themselves.
**Shane Goldmacher**: 你有连任两届的民主党州长，她被视为温和派。**珍妮特·米尔斯**，她就是传统顶级招募人才的完美形象。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: You've got the two-term **Democratic** governor who's seen as a moderate. **Janet Mills**, the perfect vision of what a traditional top recruit is.
**Janet Mills**: **特朗普**从数百万美国人手中夺走了**医疗保健**，并推高了从杂货到住房，再到卡车和汽车的一切费用。
Original English **Janet Mills**: **Trump** rips away **health care** from millions of Americans and drives up costs on everything from groceries to housing to trucks and cars.
**Shane Goldmacher**: 她是一位久经考验的赢家。她正是你希望在这种地方参选的人。这次选举将是一个简单的选择。**缅因州**是要屈服还是站起来？我知道我的答案。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: She's a proven winner. She's the kind of person you would exactly want to run in that kind of place. This election will be a simple choice. Is **Maine** going to bow down or stand up? I know my answer.
**Shane Goldmacher**: 然而，她正面临着来自一个名叫**格雷厄姆·普拉特纳**的人的激烈初选挑战，他受到了很多关注。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: And yet, she's facing a stiff primary challenge from a guy named **Graham Platner**, who's gotten a lot of attention.
**Graham Platner**: 当我告诉这里的人我正在竞选**参议院**时，有时最初的反应是：“什么鬼？”但就在那里，
Original English **Graham Platner**: When I tell people around here that I'm running for **Senate**, sometimes the initial reaction is, "What the?" But right there,
**Shane Goldmacher**: 一个牡蛎养殖者，一个退伍军人。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: An oyster farmer, a veteran.
**Graham Platner**: 我在海军陆战队和陆军服役过四次步兵巡逻。我不怕指名道姓地指出敌人，敌人就是寡头政治。
Original English **Graham Platner**: I did four infantry tours in the Marine Corps in the Army. I'm not afraid to name an enemy and the enemy is the oligarchy.
**Shane Goldmacher**: 但他也因为一个纹身引发了很多争议，他用纹身覆盖了一个带有纳粹象征的纹身，以及他过去在Reddit上发布的一些帖子。党内很多人说那又怎样？他未经修饰。他很真实。他看起来能解决我们发现民主党在2024年遇到的所有问题。我真的相信我们可以建立一个代表劳动人民的制度。最普遍的反应是：“谢天谢地，终于有人要做了。”
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: But also has gotten in much controversy over a tattoo that he tattooed over that had Nazi symbolism over a bunch of Reddit posts that he made in the past. And there's a lot in the party say, "So what?" He's unvarnished. He's real. He looks like he solves all the problems that we've identified that the **Democratic Party** had in 2024. I truly do believe that we can build a system that is going to represent working people. The number one response has been, "Well, thank God somebody's going to do it."
**Shane Goldmacher**: 猜猜谁为他举行了第一批大型集会之一？**伯尼·桑德斯**，他正在参与多场**参议院****初选**。所以，谁在这些州脱颖而出，是党内双方都非常关注和担忧的焦点。对吧？有人会指着**珍妮特·米尔斯**说：“好吧，她看起来确实是个很棒的候选人，但你猜怎么着？她将是美国历史上最年长的**参议院**新任议员。”嗯。所以，紧接着**乔·拜登**之后，你是想回到那种状态，还是想冒险选择这个非常年轻、可能鼓舞人心的人，但他所说的话很容易被共和党的攻击性广告剪辑，他以某种方式自我描述，将自己塑造成一个激进分子，而共和党人就是喜欢使用这种词语，尤其是当候选人自己用过这些词时。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: And guess who held one of the first big rallies for him? **Bernie Sanders**, who's playing in a number of these **Senate** **primaries**. And so, who emerges in these states is a real focus and concern for both sides of the party. Right? There are people who point at **Janet Mills** say, "Okay, sure, she looks like a great recruit, but guess what? She would be the oldest freshman senator in American history." Hm. So, right after **Joe Biden**, do you want to go back to that or do you want to take a risk at this young, potentially inspiring guy, but who has said things that are easily clippable in **Republican** attack ads, self-escribing themselves in ways that cast him as a radical and **Republicans** love to use that kind of term, especially when candidates have used it in their own words.
**Michael Baro**: 是吗？这就是安妮所描述的共和党人的一种幻想，他们可以将2026年民主党的所有候选人，包括极左的**佐拉·马马尼**和**格雷厄姆·普拉特纳**等等，都变成不符合主流的人。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Right? This is what Annie described as the fantasy of **Republicans** that they can turn the entire 2026 **Democratic** slate of candidates into far-left out of the mainstream **Zora Mamani**, **Platner** on and on.
**Shane Goldmacher**: 是的，正是如此。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: Yes, exactly.
**Shane Goldmacher**: 但我们不知道这些民主党初选挑战者是否真的会赢得初选并赢得普选。我认为可以将其视为民主党内部在战略上有两个相互竞争的派别。第一派希望完全专注于2026年纸面上最有可能当选的候选人，因为夺回权力、制衡**特朗普**并控制**特朗普**是如此紧迫。所以，让我们这样做。在每个州，看起来最有可能获胜的人，就选择他。让我们搁置关于民粹主义者、进步派与建制派的争论。我们不要在2026年进行那场斗争。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: But we have no idea whether the reality is that these **Democratic** primary challengers might end up winning the primary and winning the general election. I would think about it as there are two competing wings strategically in the **Democratic Party**. Wing one wants to focus entirely on who on paper is the most electable candidate in 2026 because it is so urgent to take back power and have a check against **Trump** and have a check on **Trump**. So let's do that. Whoever in each state looks like they are likeliest to win, do that. And let's hold off on this conversation of populist versus progressive versus institutionalist. Let's not have that fight in 2026.
**Michael Baro**: 提醒一下，2024年没有那场斗争。问题相当严重。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Reminder, not having that fight in 2024. Pretty problematic.
**Shane Goldmacher**: 最终导致了**特朗普**，对吧？所以他们说那场斗争将在2028年的总统初选中发生。现在，我们不希望那场斗争。而有一个派别说，实际上，2026年的初选是2028年主菜的开胃菜，届时将进行这场斗争。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: Ended up with **Trump**, right? And so they say that fight's will happen in the presidential primary in 2028. Right now, we don't want that fight. And there's a whole wing that says actually the **primaries** in 2026 are the appetizer to a main course in 2028 that have this fight.
**Shane Goldmacher**: 这些民粹主义者，这些左翼候选人，我们需要证明我们能在中期选举中获胜，以便有机会向更广泛的民主党选民推销左翼能在2028年获胜。所以这就是为什么所有这些**参议院**初选变得如此有趣和重要，成为中期选举之后民主党方向的真正代理测试。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: These populist, these lefty candidates, we need to prove that we can win in the midterms in order to have a chance to sell the broader **Democratic** electorate that the left can win in 2028. And so that's why all of these **primaries** for the **Senate** have become so interesting and so important and real proxy tests for the direction of the **Democratic Party** beyond the midterms.
### 两党最佳与最差情景 **Michael Baro**: 是的。好的。那么，有了所有这些非常有用的背景，它证明了“**焦虑的乐观主义**”这个词是合理的，我想知道你是否能告诉我们民主党人在这些中期选举中，包括**众议院**和**参议院**，的最佳情景，以及他们的最差情景。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Right. Okay. So, with all of this extremely useful context that justifies the term **anxious optimism**, I wonder if you can give us the best case scenario for **Democrats** in these **midterm elections**, **House** and **Senate**, and then the worst case scenario for them.
**Shane Goldmacher**: 我的意思是，我们能从中获得多少乐趣？
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: I mean, how much fun can we have with this?
**Michael Baro**: 这完全取决于你，**戈德马赫**先生。我的意思是，我认为民主党人的最佳情景是**唐纳德·特朗普**继续翻修浴室，并专注于选民不关心的事情。他们击败**苏珊·柯林斯**，他们迎来了一波新招募的候选人，他们在**众议院**赢得数十个席位，并在明年秋天完全掌控国会。
Original English **Michael Baro**: That's entirely up to you, Mr. **Goldmacher**. I think the best case scenario for **Democrats** is that **Donald Trump** continues remodeling bathrooms and focusing on things that voters don't care about. That they beat **Susan Collins**, that they have a wave of these new recruits, they win dozens of seats in the **House**, and they take power entirely in the **Congress** next fall.
**Shane Goldmacher**: 嗯，那是最好的情况。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: Um, that's the best case.
**Michael Baro**: 那是最好的情况，对吧？从政治上讲，两党仍然有很多可能出错的地方，所以民主党和共和党的最佳情景的极端情况，它们都相当极端。
Original English **Michael Baro**: That's the best case scenario, right? Politically, there is so much that could go wrong for both parties still that the extremes of what is the best case scenario for **Democrats** and for **Republicans**, they're quite extreme.
**Michael Baro**: 好的。那么，说到最坏的情况，民主党人的最坏情况是什么？
Original English **Michael Baro**: Okay. Well, speaking of worst case scenarios, what is it for the **Democrats**?
**Shane Goldmacher**: 那就是**唐纳德·特朗普**开始关注经济，他向全国每个人寄送支票，他称之为“**特朗普**支票”，它们在10月到来，正好是每个人投票的时候。他从**战略石油储备**中释放石油，汽油价格暴跌。他的新**联邦储备委员会**主席降息。每个人都买房。物价突然看起来更便宜了。人们将所有这些事情的解决都归功于**唐纳德·特朗普**。共和党人不仅保住了我们谈论的所有那些**参议院**席位。他们还翻转了民主党席位，扩大了他们的**参议院**多数。民主党人尽管拥有所有战略优势，但在**众议院**却不知何故功亏一篑。然后**唐纳德·特朗普**获得四年任期，共和党人完全控制国会。我不认为这两种极端情况是最有可能的结果，而且我认为共和党的结果在这两者之间甚至更不可能。但2026年存在很大的可能性范围。我得说。
Original English **Shane Goldmacher**: It's that **Donald Trump** starts focusing on the economy that he sends checks to everybody in the country and he calls them **Trump** checks and they come in October just as everyone casts ballots. He releases oil from the **strategic petroleum reserve** and gas prices plummet. His new **Federal Reserve** chairman cuts interest rates. Everyone buys homes. Things suddenly seem cheaper. And people credit **Donald Trump** for fixing all of these things all at once. And **Republicans** don't just hold all those **Senate** seats we're talking about. They flip **Democratic** seats and grow their **Senate** majority. **Democrats** somehow come up short in the **House** despite all of the strategic benefits. And they have a 4-year term for **Donald Trump** and complete **Republican** control in **Congress**. I don't think either of those extremes are the likeliest outcome and I think that the **Republican** outcome is even less likely between those two. But there's a big range of possibilities for 2026. I'll say.
**Michael Baro**: 好的，沙恩，非常感谢你，祝你新年快乐。新年快乐。
Original English **Michael Baro**: Well, Shane, thank you very much and happy new year to you. Happy new year.
### 今日新闻：格陵兰岛主权争议 **Michael Baro**: 周二，**特朗普**政府在罢免**尼古拉斯·马杜罗**后几天提出的建议，即美国下一步可能接管**格陵兰岛**，引发了欧洲官员的担忧。
Original English **Michael Baro**: On Tuesday, European officials expressed alarm over the **Trump** administration's suggestion made in the days since they ousted **Nicholas Maduro** that the **United States** could next take over **Greenland**.
**Michael Baro**: 真正的问题是**丹麦**凭什么权利对**格陵兰岛**主张控制权？他们的领土主张依据是什么？**特朗普**的首席顾问**史蒂文·米勒**强化了这一建议，他告诉**CNN**，作为自身半球国家安全问题，美国对**格陵兰岛**拥有合法主张。为了美国确保北极地区，保护和捍卫**北约**及其利益，显然**格陵兰岛**应该成为美国的一部分。所以，这将是我们国家要进行的一场对话。这是一个过程。在**丹麦**、**法国**、**德国**、**英国**、**意大利**、**西班牙**和**波兰**领导人签署的一份不同寻常的联合声明中，欧洲官员驳斥了**米勒**的逻辑，并宣布**格陵兰岛**的未来应仅由**丹麦**和**格陵兰岛**人民决定。今天的节目由**杰西卡·张**、**奥阿·切尔维德**和**凯特琳·奥基夫**制作。由**雷切尔·奎斯特**编辑，包含**丹·鲍威尔**和**艾丽西亚·埃图布**的音乐，由**克里斯·伍德**进行工程制作。这就是《每日》的全部内容。我是**迈克尔·巴罗**。明天见。
Original English **Michael Baro**: The real question is by what right does **Denmark** assert control over **Greenland**? What is the basis of their territorial claim? That suggestion was reinforced by **Trump**'s top adviser, **Steven Miller**, who told **CNN**, that as a matter of national security in its own hemisphere, the **United States** has a rightful claim to **Greenland**. For the **United States** to secure the Arctic region, to protect and defend **NATO** and **NATO** interest, obviously **Greenland** should be part of the **United States**. And so, that's a conversation that we're going to have as a country. That's a process. In an unusual joint statement signed by leaders from **Denmark**, **France**, **Germany**, **Britain**, **Italy**, **Spain**, and **Poland**, European officials rejected **Miller**'s logic and declared that **Greenland**'s future should be determined only by **Denmark** and the people of **Greenland**. Today's episode was produced by **Jessica Chong**, **OA Cherved**, and **Caitlyn O'Keefe**. It was edited by **Rachel Quester**, contains music by **Dan Powell** and **Alicia Etub**, and was engineered by **Chris Wood**. That's it for the Daily. I'm **Michael Baro**. See you tomorrow.