--- author: TVO Today date: '2026-10-30' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lyfI4lfOlM speaker: TVO Today tags: - municipal-election - fiscal-policy - provincial-politics - legislative-affairs title: 2026年安大略省市政选举盘点与秋季经济报告解读 summary: Steve Paikin与John Michael McGrath复盘了2026年安省市政选举，重点剖析邹至蕙连任多伦多市长、密西沙加市Alvin Tedjo爆冷胜选及多地现任市长落选现象；同时解读了安省最新秋季经济报告中的赤字扩大与第140号减负法案。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: politics-society area: society-thinking project: [] people: - Steve Paikin - John Michael McGrath - Olivia Chow - Brad Bradford - Alvin Tedjo - Bonnie Crombie - Carolyn Parrish - Doug Ford companies_orgs: - TVO products_models: [] media_books: - '#onpoli podcast' status: evergreen --- ### 开场与闲聊 **Steve Paikin**: 欢迎大家收听OnPaly播客。我是Steve Paikin。
Original English Welcome everyone to the OnPaly podcast. I'm Steve Pacen
**>>**: 我是John Michael McGrath。
Original English >> and I'm John Michael McGrath.
**>>**: 在今天的播客中，2026年的市政选举已经尘埃落定。我们将一起梳理这个具有历史意义的夜晚的高潮与低谷。
Original English >> Today on the pod, the municipal elections for 2026 have come and gone. We'll sort through the highs and lows of an historic evening.
**>>**: 虽然有些城市完全避免了变革——没错，多伦多、渥太华、宾顿（Bmpton），我们说的就是你们——但另一些城市则毫不留情地把现任者赶下了台。
Original English >> While some cities avoided change altogether, yes, Toronto, Ottawa, Bmpton, we're looking at you. Others kicked out incumbents with extreme prejudice.
**>>**: 省议会已经复会，财政部也公布了秋季经济报告。我们会告诉大家它反映了安大略省财政账目怎样的状况。在你的专栏——我的专栏里，我将聚焦全省各地市长选举中掀起的那股现任落选潮。
Original English >> The legislature is sitting again and the Ministry of Finance has released its fall economic statement. We'll tell you what it says about the state of the province's books. In your column, my column, I'll focus on that wave of incumbents who lost mayor's races around the province.
**>>**: 而我则专注于报道这四十多年来市长选举中见过的最令人震惊的爆冷门事件。
Original English >> And I'm focused on perhaps the most shocking upset I've ever seen in more than four decades of covering those mayoral races.
**>>**: 今天是2026年10月30日，星期五。让我们马上开始吧。
Original English >> It's Friday, October 30th, 2026. So, let's get to it.
**>>**: JMM，今天先聊点市政话题开个头。
Original English >> JMM, a little municipal to get us started today.
**>>**: 没问题。
Original English >> Absolutely.
**>>**: 我们今天穿的都是什么？这件T恤上面印的是任天堂原版红白机（NES）的手柄。
Original English >> What are we wearing today? So, this uh is a t-shirt featuring the controller for the original Nintendo Entertainment System,
**>>**: 复古老派。
Original English >> old school.
**>>**: 嗯，老派，自1985年以来的怀旧风。你看，我们提到了市政政坛出现了一批新面孔。至少其中有些人现在和我同龄。我挺喜欢这种趋势，像我这样年长的千禧一代政治人物赢得了重要职位。所以，向Alvin Tedjo这样只比我小几岁的人致敬。那些还记得任天堂原版游戏机NES的人——顺便说一下，在我的市议员选区海滩-东约克（Beaches East York），赢得席位的也是一位缩写为NES的人：Nate Erskine-Smith。
Original English >> Um, old school, kicking it old school since 1985. And, uh, you know, there was a we mentioned a wave of new faces in municipal politics. And at least some of those people are now my age. Uh, and so I I I like this trend of uh, politicians who are elder millennials like me uh, winning important offices. And so, uh, a shout out to people like Alvin Ted, who's just a few years younger than I am. Uh, people who remember the original, uh, Nintendo Entertainment System, whose initials, of course, are NES. Uh, and a different NES won his seat in my council award of Beaches East York. Nater Smith.
**>>**: 瞧瞧，可不是嘛。
Original English >> There you go. There we go.
**>>**: 厉害。年长千禧一代赢得了要职。我个人倒比较喜欢年长者赢得要职，因为那更能引起我们这一代人的共鸣。
Original English >> There you go. Wow. Um, elder millennials winning important jobs. Yes. I I I kind of like it when just elders win important jobs because that sort of speaks more to my generation.
**>>**: 话虽如此，但变革正在到来，Steve。
Original English >> Uh well, yes, but changes are coming, Steve.
**>>**: 是啊。密西沙加市的人口我记不清了，大概75万左右吧。安大略省一个重要大城市的市长竟然比你还年轻，这感觉会不会有点奇怪？
Original English >> Yeah. Yeah. Does it feel weird that a I forget the population of Missaga now, something like 750,000. Does it feel weird that there's a a mayor of a big important city in Ontario who's younger than you?
**>>**: 我几年前就接受了这个现实，岁月不饶人，每天都有比我更年轻的人涌现出来。好了，现在轮到我让你猜猜看：我这件衣服上写着“I heart Hazel（我爱Hazel）”。大家看到了吧？我的T恤上写着“I heart Hazel”。
Original English >> Uh I mean, I accepted this a few years ago that time moves on and there's there's younger people coming up behind me every day. Ah, okay. Now I am going to get you to guess what? I heart Hazel. You see it all there, everybody? Okay. My shirt says I heart Hazel. Yes.
**>>**: 这还能指的是谁呢？
Original English >> Who could that possibly be a reference to?
**>>**: 我觉得在安省政坛，按规矩讲只有一个“Hazel”，那就是已故的密西沙加市长Hazel McCallion。
Original English >> I mean that I think by law there is only one Hazel in reference to Ontario politics and that would be the late mayor of Missaga, Hazel Mall.
**>>**: 没错，确实如此。尽管她去世快四年了，但在密西沙加这次市政选举中，她依然扮演着举足轻重的角色，我们稍后还会详细讨论。 过去这一周半到两周的政治局势真是令人着迷，简直疯狂。比如不列颠哥伦比亚省提前宣布省选。
Original English >> Yes indeed. Yes indeed. Who even though she died almost four years ago was actually still a bit of a significant player in this municipal election in Missaga, which we're going to talk about more later as we go along. It has been a really fascinating last I mean week and a half, two weeks for politics. It's been crazy. The British Columbia election call.
**>>**: 简直匪夷所思。
Original English >> Oh, absolutely nuts.
**>>**: 我觉得这会树立一个新的标杆……
Original English >> I think it's going to set a new standard for
**>>**: 就像网球里说的什么来着？非受迫性失误。简直成了非受迫性失误的新标杆。
Original English >> you know what do you call that? Unforced errors in tennis. You know, it's for unforced errors.
**>>**: 我觉得这太耐人寻味了。BC省省长David Eby提前宣布选举，结果惨败。
Original English >> And and I find it so fascinating. You know, Premier Eevee in British Columbia early election call got crushed.
**>>**: 道格·福特（Doug Ford）在四年任期的第二年也做过同样的事，以特朗普以及“必须保护大家免受特朗普关税侵害”为借口提前大选，结果赢得了连续第三个多数党政府。当然，早在1990年，David Peterson在四年任期进行到第三年时提前大选，结果也输掉了。
Original English >> Doug Ford did the same thing two years into a four-year mandate. using Trump and I have to protect you against Trump tariffs as his reason for calling the election got a third consecutive majority government and then of course David Peterson back in 1990 went three years into a four-year mandate. He called the early election and he lost as well.
**>>**: 有时候，运气好确实胜过能力强。
Original English >> Some days it's better to be lucky than good, you know.
**>>**: 是的。我还想补充一点，福特虽然提前举行了大选，但没有Eby那么早。而且当时正好碰上所谓的“解放日”关税，以及特朗普开始谈论第51个州之类的胡言乱语。这种时间上的邻近性，我认为对福特的帮助远大于对Eby的帮助。更何况，我们必须提到BC省保守党内部当时的那种混乱局面。
Original English >> Yes. Well, I will add that you know Ford did have the advantage of uh calling the election Yes. early, but uh not quite as early as EIE. And uh it really was right at the same time as, you know, the the liberation day tariffs and Trump starting to talk about the 51st state and all of that nonsense. And so there was a proximity in events that I think helped Ford uh more than it helped EIE who was really un and we have to mention the context of the uh chaos inside the uh BC Conservative Party.
**>>**: 这确实让Eby提前大选的决定显得……我想可以说是有极其功利的投机嫌疑。
Original English >> That really did make EB's election call look um I guess I'm allowed to say crassly opportunistic.
**>>**: 这么形容很贴切。有趣的是，当胜利看起来就在前方仅仅25米处时，所有那些分散的保守力量竟然不知怎的凝聚到了一起，在John Rustad的带领下同仇敌忾，就这样，蓝色阵营赢得了多数政府，这可是100年来的第一次。
Original English >> Well, those would be the right words. It's funny though when when victory looks like it's just about 25 meters down the road, how all of those desperate conservative forces managed to somehow come together and sing Kumbaya under Lauren Dirkson and uh there you go, majority government for blue. First time in a 100 years.
**>>**: 至少在美国军方有一句我前几年经常听到的俗语：“敌人也有投票权（决定权）”。
Original English >> There is a uh a saying in in at least in the US military uh that I heard a lot in a prior decade uh the enemy gets a vote
**>>**: David Eby似乎忘了对手也是有投票权的，而这一次，保守派联合了起来，他们投出了自己的票。
Original English >> and David Eie seems to have forgotten that the enemy got a vote and in this case the conservatives came together and they voted.
**>>**: 可不是嘛。对了，我想致敬一个人。上周我去四季演艺中心参加了加拿大歌剧团（COC）的晚宴。那是一场令人赞叹的盛会，整晚歌声美妙。席间一位年轻的服务生走到我的桌前上菜，她名叫Michelle Ezel（拼作E-z-e-l）。这位年轻女士走过来把晚餐放到我面前，对我说：“希望我这么说不会显得不专业，但我真的很想告诉您，我有多喜欢OnPoli播客。”她是我们的忠实听众。我完全没想到去参加歌剧晚宴，中途居然会聊起安省政治或我们这个节目，但事实就是碰上了。Michelle，正如省长所说，你真棒，非常感谢你的赞扬，我们希望你继续收看或收听。我有预料到会在歌剧院谈论安省政治吗？谈《阿依达》会，谈《弄臣》会，谈《特里斯坦与伊索尔德》也会，但谈OnPoli，确实没想到，不过事情就这么发生了。
Original English >> No kidding. No kidding. Now, I wanted to give a shout out to somebody cuz last week I was at a Canadian Opera Company gala at the Four Season Center. Incredible event, wonderful singing, as you can imagine, throughout the evening. And a young server came over to my table to serve me dinner. Her name was Michelle Ezel. It's spelled E. young woman, lovely young woman, walked up to me and she placed her my dinner on the table in front of me and she said, "Oh, I hope you won't think this is unprofessional if I say this, but I wanted to tell you how much I enjoyed the OnP podcast." She's a regular listener. I did not suspect that going to a COC gala at some point in the evening, Ontario Politics or this show would come up, but it did. Michelle, as the premier says, you're a champion and uh thank you very much uh for your kind comments and uh we do hope you will continue to watch or listen. So, did I expect to be talking Ontario politics at the opera? Uh Aayita, yes. Rialletto, yes. Tristan Solda, yes. On Polly, not exactly, but there you go.
**>>**: 惊喜无处不在。
Original English >> Surprises abound.
### 议题一：2026年安省市政选举复盘 **>>**: 确实如此。言归正传，进入议题一。随着安大略省各地的市政选举落下帷幕，这是我们最后一期的“市政选举观察”。首先从省会城市多伦多开始，市长邹至蕙（Olivia Chow）以绝对优势击败挑战者Brad Bradford成功连任。JMM，请先为我们介绍一下背景。
Original English >> Yes, they do. And with that, let's get to issue one. with local elections across Ontario now done. This is our final edition of Municipal Election Watch. So, let's start in the Capitol City where Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow of course remains on the job with the decisive victory over challenger Bradford. JMM, a little background as we go, please.
**>>**: 好的。让我们把视线稍微拉回一下，回到庄德利（John Tory）辞职后举行的2023年补选。在那场竞选中，邹至蕙以37%比32%相对微弱的优势战胜了Ana Bailão。因此，在本届选举前，她的基本盘意味着哪怕比三年前的胜选大幅改善了表现，在紧咬的两人对决中依然存在失利的可能。上周有那么一阵子——你我在上周的播客里也谈到了——民调似乎一度收紧，至少有一项民调显示两人差距在误差范围内。 然而计票结果出来时，实际上毫无悬念。邹至蕙以54%对Bradford的41%获胜，而且这场选举的投票率创下了自2014年以来的新高。我觉得Bradford的表现也值得一提，这并非要贬低邹至蕙的胜利，而是说即便Bradford败选了，这基本上也是自大合并以来，多伦多现任市长遭遇的最强劲挑战。怎么说呢，任何现任者面对软弱的对手都能轻松拉开比分，但邹至蕙面对的是一位强劲的挑战者，却仍然拿下了超出所有民调预测的胜幅。周日晚上各大主流民调机构公布了最后一批密集数据，预测最大的领先幅度也不过是领先Bradford 10个百分点，而她最终领先了大概13个点。
Original English >> Right. So, I'm going to just zoom back for a second, take folks back to the special election in 2023 that followed John Tor's resignation. In that race, Olivia Chow won a relatively narrow victory over Annabauo, 37% to 32%. Uh, so her starting point in this election was that she could substantially improve her performance over uh the election win from 3 years ago and still could have lost in a close twoerson race. And for a few moments last week, you and I talked about this on the podcast last week, the polls did seem to tighten a little bit. At least one had shown it, you know, within the margin of error. um when the votes were counted in fact uh it was not particularly close. Uh Chia won 54% of the vote to Bradford's 41 and that happened in an election that also happened to have higher turnout than any election we'd seen since 2014. Um I do think uh Bradford's performance is worth mentioning here not to uh diminish Chiao's victory here uh but to say you know Bradford mounted what was even in defeat. It was you know substantially the strongest challenge that uh an incumbent mayor in this city has seen since amalgamation. And how to put this any incumbent can run up the score against a weak opponent. Uh Chiao faced a strong challenger and still posted a win that was larger than any of the polls had projected. We we got that last big dump of polls on Sunday night from all of the major pollsters. Uh the the most that they projected was a 10-point uh uh win over Bradford. She ended up with uh 13, I guess.
**>>**: 嗯。
Original English >> Mhm.
**>>**: 所以这对邹至蕙来说是一场极其稳固的胜利，对省会城市而言也是意义重大的结果。
Original English >> So, a very substantial win for Chiao. Uh and a very consequential one uh for the provincial capital.
**>>**: 确实。在我看来，围绕这场竞选最大的未解之谜始终是：如果庄德利决定参选会怎样？因为直到他决定不参选的最后一刻前，他看起来都绝对要重新加入战局夺回旧职。毫无疑问，这本会改变竞选的动态。我不知道会怎么变，你对此有什么想法吗？
Original English >> Indeed. Now, to me, the great unknown surrounding this race is always going to be what if John Tory had decided to run, right? Because he looked like he was absolutely going to throw his hat back into the ring to try to reclaim his old job right up until the moment when he did not. And I mean, of course, it would have changed the dynamic of the race. I don't know how. Do you have a thought about how?
**>>**: 我觉得这里面其实隐含了两个问题：一是庄德利是否会参选；二是如果庄德利参选，Brad Bradford是否会退选？我推测对Bradford来说，这是一场孤注一掷的博弈。当盛传庄德利可能参选的流言漫天飞时，他也表达过类似意思，当时有人问他，他说：“不，我不会退选。”而如果他们两人同时参选，那只会让邹至蕙赢选变得更加容易，因为那会分流保守派的选票。不过这确实是一个无法验证的假设，也是那种令人遐想的“如果”。
Original English >> So, I think you you actually have two questions implied in there. One is, would John Tory have entered the race? And the other is would Brad Bradford have dropped out of the race if Tori had uh had entered? Um I suspect that for Bradford this was an all or nothing proposition. Uh he had said as much when uh the rumors were flying that Tory might get into the race. He he was asked and he's like, "No, I'm not getting out of the race." Um and uh that if if the two of them had stayed in the race, that would have simply um it it would have made Olivia Chow's job even easier. it would have divided the the conservative uh field. Um truly an unknowable scenario though and and yes, one of those great whatifs.
**>>**: 话虽如此，我理解你的观点，但早在2014年，庄德利、道格·福特和邹至蕙都曾参选市长——两位保守派对上一位新民主党人。
Original English >> Although, you know, I mean, I take your point, but back in 2014, John Tory and Doug Ford and Olivia Chow all ran for mayor. Two conservatives, one new Democrat.
**>>**: 两位保守派并没有分流选票，他们分别包揽了第一和第二名。
Original English >> The two Tories didn't split the vote. The two Tories came first and second.
**>>**: 是的。
Original English >> Yes.
**>>**: 邹至蕙排在第三。当然不可否认，到了2026年，她已经是一位远比2014年更优秀、更令人敬畏的候选人了。但无论如何，我觉得大家还会长久探讨很多假设。刚才提到了Bradford的落败，我想借此谈谈所谓的“精神胜利”，因为我认为Bradford完全有资格说：虽然我没赢，
Original English >> And Olivia Chow came third. Now, admittedly, in 2026, she is a much better candidate, a much more formidable opponent than she would have been back in 2014. But anyway, I think there's a lot of whatifs that people are going to ponder for a long time. You talked about um the defeat of Bradford and and I'm going to talk about moral victories here for a second because I think Bradford is entitled to say, you know, I didn't win this thing,
**>>**: 但我确实展现出了一场极其亮眼的对决。想想三年前的补选，他的得票率甚至不足2%。
Original English >> but I sure gave it a hell of a show. You know, if you consider three years ago in the bi-election, he didn't even get 2% of the vote. Yes.
**>>**: 而今年他把得票率推高到了41%。我是说，反邹至蕙的阵营在他的旗帜下实现了相当规模的集结。这至少向我表明，如果他想凭借这次选举中相对强势的表现继续在政坛有所作为，机会是完全存在的。 另外我还想在此记录一件事：邹至蕙在这次选举中获得的票数，超过了加拿大历史上任何一位政治人物。她获得了超过53.2万张选票。
Original English >> And he knocked that up to 41% this year. I mean, that is quite a significant that's quite a significant coming together of the anti-chow forces in his camp. And it certainly suggests to me anyway that if he wants to have a future in politics based on his relatively strong showing in this election, he's got one. The other thing is I wanted to um I wanted to put on the record here that Olivia Chow got more votes in that election than any politician ever in Canadian history. She got north of 532,000 votes.
**>>**: 这是有史以来最高的票数。
Original English >> That is the biggest ever.
**>>**: 甚至Bradford在落败的情况下，
Original English >> Even Bradford in losing,
**>>**: 没错。
Original English >> yes,
**>>**: 也凭借40多万张选票，拿下了加拿大历史上第四高的得票总数。所以，不管你怎么看，这些数字都令人惊叹。
Original English >> got the fourth highest total of votes in the history of Canada with more than 400,000 votes. So take take that what you will, but it's these are impressive numbers.
**>>**: 是的。多伦多市长是全国单一职位吸票最多的岗位，对吧？面向整座大城市的单一职位，又是全国最大的城市。所以假以时日，随着城市人口的增长，肯定会有人打破邹至蕙本周创下的纪录。不过在另一方面，这也可能需要一两届选举周期，因为尽管这次选举投票率相对较高，但仍未突破50%。为此我得稍稍叹一口气。但如果接下来的两届选举投票率较低，那么这个纪录可能在相当一段时间内都是安全的。
Original English >> Yeah. The mayor of Toronto is the single most uh vote collecting office in the country, right? It's biggest, you know, the the single office for the whole city and it's the biggest city. And so, you know, in time uh somebody will exceed Olivia Chow's uh uh record uh that she set this week as the city's population uh grows. But on the other hand, it could be an election cycle or two because if we have, you know, it was a relatively high turnout election. It still did not crack 50%. So, I'm going to , you know, shed a single tear for that. But, um, you know, if we have, say, two more elections with lower turnout, uh, that record might, you know, be pretty safe for a while.
**>>**: 我觉得还是值得再重申一遍。Bradford在这次败选中获得的票数，比庄德利两次胜选时都要多，比罗伯·福特（Rob Ford）胜选时多，比David Miller两次胜选时都多，也比Mel Lastman在1997年大合并选举中胜选时的票数多。所以这些战果可以让Bradford在评估时自豪地说：虽然我没赢，但我表现得相当不错。 之前我听过很多传言，说这场竞选多么乏味，说两位主要候选人完全不够火候，甚至有人质疑“这就是多伦多能拿出的最好阵容了吗？堂堂全国最大城市，这竟然是我们能推选出的最具才华的人选？”可结果呢？这场竞选吸引的人数远超我们的预期。正如你指出的，46%的投票率，创下了2014年以来的最高纪录，许多人都出来投票了。 我觉得像你我这样的政治狂热爱好者眼中的趣味，与普通选民眼中的趣味存在着有趣的对比。如果你问我们这行的人，2023年和2026年哪场选举更有趣，大多数人肯定会说2023年，那时的各种背景与前因后果毫无疑问都更精彩。然而，获得更高投票率的反而是今年这一届。部分原因我认为是选民也意识到了市议会的控制权面临重组，而市议会确实发生了一些重大变化，我们稍后可以聊聊。但不可否认的是，大量选民认为这是一场必须发出自己声音的重要选举。
Original English >> I think it's, again, I I I'm going to repeat. I think it's worth putting on the record. Bradford got more votes in this election in defeat. >> Yes. than John Tory got in two elections that he won. That Rob Ford got in the election he won. Then David Miller got twice in the two elections he won. Then Mel Lman got in the 1997 election that he won. So, these are things that Bradford can, you know, I I think he can check a few boxes and saying, um, you know, I didn't win, but I did pretty well. For all the talk I heard about how uninteresting this campaign was and how not ready for prime time the two main candidates were, and is this the best Toronto can do? You know, the biggest city in the country, the these this is the most talented uh field we can possibly produce. Well, you know what? I guess the race captivated a lot more people than we thought because, as you point out, 46% turnout. That's the best since 2014. and a lot of people vote. I think there's an interesting contrast here between like what political sickos like you and I think is interesting versus what you know the general population what the the electorate thinks is interesting because if you had to say to somebody in our line of work like which was the more interesting election 2023 or 2026 I think most people would say 2023 the circumstances of it the context right bar none a more interesting election and yet this was the one that got substantially more turnout uh now some of that is because I I think uh you know it's people may have also understood that uh the control of council was also up for grabs and so we actually saw some important changes in council which we can talk about in a minute um but no I mean clearly a lot of voters saw this as an important election that they were going to make themselves heard in
**>>**: 我特别想看看其中两个选区的数据。第一个是北怡陶碧谷（Etobicoke North）。你知道北怡陶碧谷在安大略省议会的议员是谁吗？
Original English >> there were two writings in particular that I wanted to look at the numbers of the first was Atobbico North >> do you know who the member of the Ontario legislature for Atobbico North is
**>>**: 这个名字我可听过不止一次了，那是道格·福特。
Original English >> I have heard this name uh on more than one occasion That would be Doug Ford.
**>>**: 正是安大略省省长。谁赢下了他的选区北怡陶碧谷？
Original English >> That would be the premier of Ontario. Who won his writing >> at Tobico North?
**>>**: 天哪，我该查查这个的。是Bradford赢了吗？
Original English >> Uh oh gosh, I should have checked this. Um, did Bradford win it?
**>>**: 不是。
Original English >> No.
**>>**: 邹至蕙以一个百分点的优势赢下了道格·福特的选区。
Original English >> Olivia Chow won Doug Ford's writing by a single percentage point.
**>>**: 哎呀。
Original English >> Well, hey,
**>>**: 但福特之前确实算是背书过她，对吧？算是吧，但其实也不算完全背书。
Original English >> but he did endorse her, right? Yes, sort of. Not really.
**>>**: Brad Bradford以前在市议会代表的是你的选区吧。
Original English >> Brad Bradford used to represent on city council your writing.
**>>**: 海滩-东约克。
Original English >> Beaches East York.
**>>**: 海滩-东约克。谁赢下了他的选区？
Original English >> Beaches East York. Who won his writing?
**>>**: 邹至蕙大幅领先，赢了34个百分点。
Original English >> Uh, Olivia Chow by some margin. 34 points.
**>>**: 没错。
Original English >> Yes.
**>>**: Bradford在自己的老选区海滩-东约克输给邹至蕙整整34个百分点。
Original English >> Bradford lost his own writing, Beaches East York, to Olivia Chow by 34 points.
**>>**: 是的。
Original English >> Yes,
**>>**: 这太震撼了。
Original English >> that is
**>>**: 确实很伤人。
Original English >> profound. That hurts.
**>>**: 是啊。旧多伦多市东端的两个选区——多伦多-丹福思（Toronto-Danforth）和海滩-东约克，是Brad Bradford在全市得票率最差的选区之列。
Original English >> Yes. Um the uh the the two uh ridings of the old city of Toronto's East End, Toronto Danforth and Beaches East York were some of uh Brad Bradford's uh worst performing uh wards in the city.
**>>**: 好的。你刚才提到了多伦多市议会的人事变动，变动确实不少，给我们讲讲吧。
Original English >> All right. You hinted at this a second ago, the changes on Toronto City Council. There were many. Take us through it.
**>>**: 好的。这里面的某些差异其实更加微妙，并不完全是保守派与进步派之间的决裂。但对于即将到来的新一届市议会任期，可以说是出现了一些重要变化。在大学-玫瑰谷选区（University-Rosedale），Mike Leighton在暂别政坛一段时间后成功重返市政舞台。他取代了该选区的Dianne Saxe。Dianne Saxe曾任安大略省环境专员，后来当选为多伦多市议员。当Leighton参选时，她看出了风向不对，对自己不利。
Original English >> Right. So, some of the differences here are a bit more nuanced. It's it's not all uh you know, a a hard break between a a conservative and a progressive. Uh but there are some arguably important changes coming for uh this uh incoming council uh term. Uh so, in University Rosedale, uh Mike Leighton has successfully returned to municipal politics after a bit of a a hiatus, I guess you could say. Uh he replaces Diane Saxs in that ward. Diane Saxs was of course the former environmental commissioner of Ontario. She had become a Toronto city councelor. When Leighton entered the race, she saw which way the wind was blowing and not her way.
**>>**: 确实不利。于是她转战多伦多-丹福思选区，结果输给了Sarah Heart（我记得她是叫这个名字）。
Original English >> Not her way. And so she tried to make a run in Toronto Danforth. She lost there to I believe Sarah Heheart is her name
**>>**: 在帕克代尔-海柏公园选区（Parkdale-High Park），接替Gord Perks的激烈角逐由Diana Chan McNally胜出。公平地说，她被视为选票上主要候选人中最进步派的一位。在约克南-韦斯顿选区（York South-Weston）——我一直密切关注这个选区——Frances Nunziata被Chiara Padovani击败。Padovani曾在2022年大选中挑战Nunziata，当时差距非常微弱，而这次Nunziata仅排在第三位。正如我之前提到的，Nate Erskine-Smith在海滩-东约克击败Natalie Johnson获胜。当然还有很多其他议席选举，我们无法逐一展开，毕竟现在没时间把整个多伦多市议会都梳理一遍。 总体而言，我认为市议会选举的整体影响是让议会朝邹至蕙的立场稍稍靠拢。她多了一两位进步派议员，取代了以往更具敌意的议员。对邹至蕙来说，用Nate Erskine-Smith换下Brad Bradford显然是一场纯粹的胜利。而且即使在一名进步派接替另一名进步派的情况下，某些变化在我看来最终也是有利于邹至蕙的。我不认为她在议会已经拥有稳固的绝对多数，因为多伦多市的主体依然是郊区板块，而郊区选民通常更倾向于选出保守派议员。但平心而论，进步派在多伦多市议会的掌控力确实比选举之夜前更强了。
Original English >> in Parkdale High Park. Uh a competitive race to succeed Gourd Perks was won by Diana Chan McN. I think it's fair to say she was seen as the the most progressive uh of the the the major candidates on the ballot. Uh in York Southwestern, this one I was keeping a close eye on. In York Southwestern, uh Francis Nunata was beaten by Kiara Padavani. Padavani had run against Nunata in the 2022 election and had come very very close uh to beating Nunata. Then uh Nunata now came in third in this most recent election. Uh I've alluded to this before. Nate Erskin Smith won in Beaches East York uh beating uh Natalie Johnson there. So there 's other of of course many other council races and uh we could go over them all, but we don't do not have time for the entire Toronto City Council uh right now. Um I I think broadly speaking, I would say that the overall effect of the council races uh has been to move council a little bit closer to Chiao's uh own position. uh she has one or two more uh progressive uh counselors who have replaced uh uh you know let's say more antagonistic counselors swapping Brad Bradford for Nan Smith is obviously if you are Olivia Chow that's just a pure win right um and then even in cases where you had like uh you know one progressive replacing another uh these are in some cases these were still changes that I think will end up benefiting uh Olivia Chow I I don't think she has a really uh a confident majority on council outright because of course the majority of the city of Toronto is um still the suburban city of Toronto and uh they tend to elect more conservative uh members of council generally speaking. Um but I do think it's fair to say that progressives have a stronger hand on Toronto city council than they did uh before election night.
**>>**: 我不觉得这是夸大其词，即便你想指责我夸张也没关系，但我仍认为自己有充分依据：我们刚刚见证了安大略省市政政治史上最大的一次冷门。就在多伦多西边的密西沙加市，比你年轻的Alvin Tedjo，
Original English >> I don't think this is hyperbole, but you can accuse me of it if you want to. But I still think I'm on solid ground with this. I think we just saw the biggest upset in municipal political history. Yeah. >> In the province of Ontario, just west of here in Missaga, Alvin Tedjo, younger than you.
**>>**: 没错。
Original English >> Yes.
**>>**: 成为了那里的新市长，同时击败了现任市长Carolyn Parrish和前市长Bonnie Crombie。稍后在“你的专栏，我的专栏”环节我会多聊聊这个，但在继续之前你好像想提两点。
Original English >> Is the new mayor there, besting both the incumbent mayor, Carolyn Parish, and the former mayor Bonnie Crombi. I am going to talk about this much more later in the your column, my column part, but I think he wanted to make a point just before we go on.
**>>**: 我想说两点。第一，当Alvin大概在今年四月宣布参选时，我写过关于他的报道。当时有一两个人写信问我：“你搞什么？怎么会关注这家伙？”现在我看谁还笑得出来。
Original English >> Uh, so two points if I could. one um I wrote about Alvin when he launched his campaign in I guess April of this year and I had one or two people write me and say like what are you doing pay attention to this guy and I said now who's laughing
**>>**: 平心而论，你写专栏的时候他的民调只有4%。
Original English >> well in fairness he was at 4% when you wrote the column
**>>**: 确实如此。第二点，在竞选最后几天发生了一个奇怪的插曲。这里我指的是Bonnie Crombie接受Ahmed El-Bayoumi采访一事。Ahmed创办了一份名为《Poli Corner》的时事通讯，本周早些时候他也上了我们的节目。他发表了对Crombie的专访，Crombie在采访中某种程度上撇清了自己担任安省自由党领袖的经历。我直接引用文章的原话，她说自由党的品牌“并不总是适合她”，并且说“坦率讲，我的政策非常保守，但我却作为自由党人参选”。这次采访让很多现任自由党人感到震惊错愕。
Original English >> it's true um and yes um there was an odd moment uh in the the final days of this race and uh here I'm going to refer to uh an interview that Crombi uh conducted with uh or or or sat down with uh Ahmed Albayumi uh who publishes a newsletter called Poly Corner and he was actually on the rundown earlier this week. Um he published this interview with Crombi where she kind of disavowed her time as liberal leader. Uh I'm going to quote from the article here saying you know she said that the the liberal brand wasn't always a good fit and she said quote my policies were very conservative frankly and yet I was running as a liberal. And then that interview uh left a lot of liberals, current liberals uh kind of reeling.
**>>**: 而且好像是在大选前一天发布的。
Original English >> It was the day before the election too, I think, that it dropped.
**>>**: 是的，好像是周六发表的。现任自由党临时领袖John Fraser（虽然他当临时领袖的时间也不会太长了）对她的言论做出了回应。用比我更年轻的观众懂的流行语来说，他狠狠地公开抨击了她，说政治关乎的不是个人舒适感，而是要清楚自己的信仰并做出艰难的抉择。 我不太确定Crombie当时说这些话想达到什么目的。从理论上讲，你或许能想象这是一种聪明的政治手腕，试图在最后关头向偏保守的选民示好，但这一招没有奏效。计票结束后，她仅排在第三名。好了，正如我所说，节目后半部分我们还会回到这个话题。但现在让我们快速浏览全省其他一些值得关注的选战。 首先是汉密尔顿市（Hamilton）。大约两个月前，我还以为这会是全省最精彩的市长竞选，结果差距并没有想象中那么小。汉密尔顿“一届市长”的魔咒还在延续，一位名叫Keenan Loomis的人当选了；而人们熟知的安省新民主党前党魁Andrea Horwath，作为现任市长仅排在第三位，而且是差距巨大的第三位，得票率只有16%。我查了一下，自1997年以来汉密尔顿举行了9次市长选举，现任市长仅仅胜选过1次。
Original English >> Yeah, I think it was published Saturday. Um and uh so uh the current uh interim for a little bit longer. Liberal leader John Fraser uh reacted to her uh comments. Um uh for viewers even younger than me, I'm going to use some slang. uh he put her on blast uh saying that uh you know politics isn't about comfort, it's about knowing what you believe and making tough choices. I'm not quite sure what Crombi was hoping to accomplish uh with these remarks. In theory, you could imagine it being like a smart political maneuver, a bit of a late political genius to to appeal to uh uh more conservative-minded voters. Um it did not work. Uh she ended up in third place uh when the votes were all counted. Okay, as I say, we're going to come back to that later in the show, but for now, let's you and I just sort of go back and forth here, and we're going to drop in on some noteworthy races, starting with what I thought was going to be the most exciting, uh, mayor's race in the province, uh, about two months ago, uh, turned out to be not that close, the city of Hamilton. But where the trend of one-term mayors continues, as a guy named Keenan Lumis, was elected, Andrea Horvath, a name people will remember, the former leader of the Ontario NDP. She was the incumbent mayor. She came third and a very distant third. She got 16% of the total vote. I looked this up. Since 1997, we have had nine elections for mayor in the city of Hamilton. The incumbent has won once.
**>>**: 哇。
Original English >> Wow.
**>>**: 九次里仅一次。在那里赢得连任真不容易。
Original English >> One out of nine. That is a tough town in which to win re-election.
**>>**: 担任了46年米尔顿（Milton）市长、此前还在议会任职20年的Gord Krantz，他的市长生涯宣告结束了。接替他的是George Minakakis，而Minakakis去年才通过补选进入米尔顿市议会，在议会仅任职一年便当选了米尔顿市长。之前我们提到过Krantz和Zeynab Asim一起拍的竞选广告，他们录制了一段很温馨的视频，一边吃冰淇淋一边强调竞选期间保持文明政治的重要性。可惜这并未能帮到他们中的任何一人，Asim得票也远远落后，位列第三。
Original English >> Uh Gourd CR uh who had been mayor of Milton for 46 years uh and he had been on council for another 20 years before that. Uh he uh his time as mayor of Milton has come to an end. He will be succeeded by uh George Makikas uh who won a bi-election to Milton Council only last year. He's been on council for just a single year. He is now going to be mayor of the council of Milton. Uh we had mentioned an ad that Crance and uh Zanabazim uh had uh filmed. They did this charming uh video where they uh shared ice cream. Uh talked about the importance of keeping uh politics civil during the election. Uh unfortunately did not help either of them. Azim came in a pretty distant third.
**>>**: 不过我觉得我们以后还会听到她的消息。她很有活力，23岁，戴头巾的年轻穆斯林女性，沉着自信，极具个性。我敢打赌，如果她想在政坛继续发展，绝对大有可为，虽然这次没赢，但她已经崭露头角、被大家记住了。
Original English >> Do you know what though? I suspect we're going to hear from her again. She was a dynamo. 23 years old um Muslim young woman, wore a hijab. Um, lots of poise, lots of personality. I'm betting that if she wants a future in politics, she could probably have it because she didn't win this campaign, but she showed, you know, she's on the map now. She's on the map.
**>>**: 是的，就像我们刚才提到的Chiara Padovani，第一次挑战Frances Nunziata虽然输了，四年后卷土重来，现在当选了市议员。
Original English >> And, you know, I just point back to the example of Kiara Padani, who we just mentioned, who, you know, yes, she lost that uh first race against Francis Nuni, but she came back four years later and now she will be a counselor.
**>>**: 没错。带我们去西南部看看吧。
Original English >> There you go. Take us down Southwest.
**>>**: 温莎市（Windsor）选出了新市长Fred Francis。他接替了Drew Dilkens。我们之前在播客里常聊到Dilkens，相信福特对待手下都一视同仁，但Dilkens绝对是福特最看重的人之一。
Original English >> So, Windsor has chosen a new mayor with Fred Francis coming into the role. Uh, he replaces Drew Dilickens, who we've spoken about before on the podcast. One of Doug Ford's I'm sure he loves all of his children equally, but truly Drew Dilkins, one of Doug Ford's favorites.
**>>**: 是的。我们在此可以列一长串名单了，因为本周一晚上全省各地有大批现任市长落选：奥克维尔（Oakville）的Rob Burton、尼亚加拉瀑布城的Jim Diodati、金斯顿（Kingston）的Bryan Paterson、蒂明斯（Timmins）的Michelle Boileau、剑桥（Cambridge）的Jan Liggett、滑铁卢的Dorothy McCabe、伊利堡（Fort Erie）的Wayne Redekop、萨尼亚（Sarnia）自1988年起担任市长兼省议员的Mike Bradley。这还用说吗？在同一个选举日，这么多重要城镇的现任者集体落败是极不寻常的。人们总说在市政政治中现任身份和知名度最重要，因为没有党派政治——谢天谢地没有。你看我们在YouTube上的“政治极客（Nerds on Politics）”栏目就知道，他在市政厅层面喜欢政党政治，而我不喜欢。总之，因为通常没有自由党、新民主党、保守党等党派标签，知名度几乎决定了一切。但那天晚上知名度却没能拯救一大批人。所以说，知名度并非万能。
Original English >> Yeah. Now, we're going to make a bit of a list here because there were a lot of mayors who were defeated this past Monday night all over the province. There was Rob Burton in Oakville, Jim Daddy in Niagara Falls, Brian Patterson in Kingston, Michelle Buau in Timmons, Jan Liot in Cambridge, Dorothy McCabe in Waterlue, Wayne Reticop in Foreri, Mike Bradley in Sarnia. Mike's been the mayor there since 1988 and an MPP as well. It is I mean, do we need to say it? It is highly unusual for so many incumbents in so many major centers to lose all in the same election. Uh, we are constantly told incumbency and name recognition is so important in municipal politics because there are no party politics. Thankfully, that's a little aside. Watch our nerds on your jab there. A little jab cuz watch our nerds on politics segment on YouTube. That's um >> he likes party politics at city hall. I don't anyway. But because there's no party policy as liberals, new Democrats, conservatives, generally speaking, and and as a result, name recognition is everything. And it didn't help a whole bunch of people the other night. So, it's not everything. That's for sure.
**>>**: 确实，这个夜晚的非同寻常怎么强调都不为过，与以往的先例截然不同。然而在某些地方，正如我们提到的多伦多，延续性依然是主轴；渥太华市长Mark Sutcliffe成功连任；宾顿市长Patrick Brown赢得第三任期；基奇纳（Kitchener）的Berry Vrbanovic连任；巴里（Barrie）的Alex Nuttall轻松连任；伦敦市的Josh Morgan和旺市（Vaughan）的Steven Del Duca也双双连任。
Original English >> No. And uh it's difficult to overstate how remarkable this evening was because it is such a break from past president. And yet uh somehow continuity was the name of the game in in Toronto, as we've mentioned. Uh Ottawa saw Mayor Mark Suckliffe reelected. Uh Bmpton, Patrick Brown won a third term. Uh Kitner saw Barry Verbanovic re-elected. uh at Barry with Alex Nutal again re-elected quite handily. Uh and then uh London and Vaughn saw Josh Morgan and Steven Deluka also reelected.
**>>**: 我这里还有一个例子，我都不确定以前是否发生过类似的事。2018年，帕里湾区（Parry Sound）Joly的居民选出Tim Bryson担任市长；到了2022年下届选举，同样在帕里湾区的Strong（那个地方的名字就叫Strong）的居民又选出Tim Bryson当市长；而在本周早些时候举行的2026年选举中，你猜猜帕里湾区的Sundridge居民选了谁当市长？
Original English >> Now I have an example of something here that I'm not sure has ever been done before. In 2018, the residents in Jolly Ontario, that is in the district of Perry Sound, elected Tim Bryson as their mayor. The next election in 2022, the residents of Strong, Ontario. That's the name of a place. Strong, Ontario. >> Strong. >> Yeah. In Perry Sound district elected Tim Bryson as their mayor. And the next election, 2026, which took place, you may have heard, just earlier this week. Guess who the residents of Sunundridge, Ontario, in Perry Sound district elected as mayor?
**>>**: 我猜是Tim Bryson。
Original English >> I'm going to guess Tim Bryson.
**>>**: 猜对了，你怎么猜到的？没错，帕里湾区有三个不同的村镇，他把这三个地方的市长全当了一遍。坊间一直有传闻，说以后可能会将这些地方合并成一个区域。
Original English >> You are right. How did you guess that? Yes. There are three different villages in the Perry Sound area and he has now won the merry of all of them. At some point down the road there is whispers. There is talk of amalgamating them all into one area.
**>>**: 如果真合并了，Bryson市长完全有资格说自己能代表所有人，因为他把全区都赢遍了。
Original English >> And if that ever happens, I guess Mayor Bryson has a pretty good claim that he could represent everybody cuz he's won them all.
**>>**: 像集宝可梦一样。
Original English >> Yes. >> Uh like Pokemon.
**>>**: 没错。我想感谢道格·福特政府的厅长、帕里湾-穆斯科卡选区省议员Graydon Smith。他前两天打电话给我说：“Steve，你也许该把这事放到OnPoli播客上讲讲，因为我觉得以前从没见过这种事。”在帕里湾-穆斯科卡横扫全场，真不简单。
Original English >> Exactly. Right. Exactly. So I want to thank Graden Smith who's a minister in Doug Ford's government and who is the MPPP for Perry San Muskoka. He called me a couple of days ago and he said, "Steve, you might want to put this on the on Pauly podcast cuz I don't think I've ever seen that happen before." And that's pretty good. Running the table in Perry Sound, Muskoka. Not bad.
**>>**: 我必须开个玩笑：他不再是Strong的市长了，这意味着他不再是一个“强市长（strong mayor）”了。
Original English >> I I have to make this joke. Un he is no longer the mayor of Strong Ontario, which means he is no longer a strong mayor.
**>>**: 哎呀，太冷了，纯纯的烂梗冷幽默。
Original English >> Oh, that's lame. That is such dad humor.
**>>**: 哈哈，我毕竟是个中年父亲嘛。不过最后让我们看看那个差点选不出任何人的市镇：Fauquier-Strickland。在这个小镇上，当八月某个周五下午提名截止时，市长和市议员席位竟然没有一个登记候选人。最终，Pierre Lévesque在八月作为唯一的候选人直接自动当选市长。他即将领导的市议会中只有一名连任议员，外加三张新面孔——对他而言倒也不算生面孔，其中包括他的妻子Nicole Lévesque。Pierre上届就是议员，原本不打算连任。这对夫妻如今占据了这个在2021年人口普查中只有467人的市镇管治机构整整40%的席位。今年早些时候，这对夫妇告诉CBC，他们决定参选是出于对地方事务的担忧，如果没人参选，社区该怎么办？ 所以我想向他们的公民精神致敬，尤其是坦率地说，Fauquier-Strickland面临着真正的财政困境。新当选的议员们必须面对艰难的抉择和繁重的工作，他们挺身而出，并且在这类地方任职，很难以此作为跳板进入省或联邦级更高政坛。他们做这项苦差事纯粹是出于对社区的热爱。因此，祝愿新当选的Fauquier-Strickland市议会好运，祝贺全省各地的胜选者，也感谢让竞选充满悬念的各位挑战者。
Original English >> Yes. Yes. Uh well, I am a middle-aged dad. Um but let's finish on the municipality that almost elected nobody at all. Uh we are going to return to the results in Foki Strickland, the small township that when nominations closed on that Friday afternoon in August, did not have uh a single registered candidate for any of its mayor or council races. Um as it happened, Pier Laang was acclaimed as the sole candidate for mayor back in August. Uh and he will now preside over a council with a single returning incumbent and three new faces including well I guess not new to him uh his wife Nicole Laantang. Uh Pierre was a counselor in the prior term who initially was not going to run uh for reelection. The married couple will now make up a full 40% of the governing body of the township that had a a census population in 2021 of 467 people. Earlier this year, the La Mountains told CBC they opted to put their names on the ballot out of a a civic concern about what would it mean for their community if nobody ran for election. So, I want to um salute their civic spirit if I can. Uh not least because if if I can be blunt about it, FIA Strickland uh you know it faces some real financial hardship. uh each of these uh incoming members of council are are facing frankly some really difficult choices and a tough job that they are going to have to do and they volunteered for it in a place where they are not likely to parlay this political experience into necessarily higher office at the provincial or federal level. This is uh a tough job that they are doing really purely for the love of their own community. So, uh, I want to, uh, wish good luck to the newly elected council of Fier Strickland and congratulations to the winners around the province and, uh, you know, thank you to the challengers who kept them honest.
**>>**: 说得好。听你聊这个时，我脑海里搜索了一下，依稀记得夫妻俩同时当选同一个市议会的先例。那还是在20世纪80年代初我担任市政厅记者时，在合并前的北约克市议会，有一对夫妻叫Bill Sutherland和Betty Sutherland。
Original English >> Right on. Now, as you were sitting there talking about that, I thought to myself, I'm sure there's been an example of a husband and wife team both getting elected to the same council at the same time. And I was just doing the Google search in my brain and I seem to recall when I was a city hall reporter back in the early 1980s on North York City Council. This is before amalgamation of course.
**>>**: 好的。
Original English >> There was a couple named Bill and Betty Sutherland. >> Okay.
**>>**: 他们当时同时在市议会任职。
Original English >> And they were both on council at the same time.
**>>**: 是的。
Original English >> Yes.
**>>**: 我记得他们的儿子Paul后来也接替了其中一人的席位。在这个行当里，有时真可谓是全家上阵。
Original English >> And I believe their son Paul succeeded one of them on council as well. So boy, some days it's all in the family in this business, isn't it?
**>>**: 确实如此。
Original English >> Yes indeed.
### 议题二：省议会复会、秋季经济报告与第140号法案 **>>**: 好的，进入议题二。经过长达21周的夏季休会后，省议员们重返女王公园。政府迅速行动，已经推出了两项重大法案。本周早些时候，政府提出了最新的减少繁文缛节法案；周四，财政部长Peter Bethlenfalvy提交了全省秋季经济报告。JMM，我们先从这里聊起，财政账目表现如何？
Original English >> There we go. And with that, let's move on to issue two. MPPPS have returned to Queens Park after a 21-w week summer break. And the government has hit the ground running with two major bills already. Earlier this week, the government introduced its latest red tape reduction bill. And on Thursday, the finance minister, Peter Bethlin, presented the province's fall economic statement. Okay, JMM, let's start there. What do the books look like?
**>>**: 账面情况以前比现在好得多。事实上，我得先在这里承认打脸。本周早些时候我在节目里做短评时还说，通常而言，省府的账目在财年内是逐步改善的。春季预算案往往基于非常保守的假设，到了秋季经济报告通常会好转。然而你猜怎么着？
Original English >> Uh, they've been better. Uh, in fact, I want to start off by eating some crow here. Earlier this week, I did a short segment on the rundown, and I said that in general, the government's books improve over the fiscal year, right? They start with some very conservative assumptions in the spring budget, and then things generally get better uh by the fall economic statement. Uh well, guess what?
**>>**: 我猜这次并没有好转。
Original English >> Uh I'm going to guess that didn't happen this time.
**>>**: 确实没有。自春季预算案以来，全省的财务数据出现了显著恶化。这不仅关乎我在电视上被打脸，更关乎各种公共政策考量。春季预算案预测今年的赤字为138亿加元，现在预计将达到169亿加元，恶化相当严重。不仅如此，明年的赤字原预计为61亿加元，现在预计翻倍不止，达到127亿加元。到2028年，原本预计实现预算平衡，现在却预计赤字67亿加元，并表示“或许”能在2029年实现平衡。
Original English >> It did not. the province's numbers have gotten uh measurably worse uh since the budget, which is of course important for all sorts of public policy reasons and not just because it made me look foolish on TV. Um in the spring budget, this year's deficit was projected to be 13.8 billion. They are now projecting it to be 16.9 billion. So substantial deterioration there. Uh it gets worse. Next year's deficit was supposed to be 6.1 billion. It will now be 12.7 billion, more than doubled. Uh and then in 2028, the budget was actually supposed to be balanced. Uh they are now projecting a $6.7 billion deficit and maybe balancing it in 2029.
**>>**: 这听起来是我听过的最关键的一个词了——“或许”。
Original English >> That sounds like the most operative word I've ever heard. Maybe.
**>>**: 是的，充满不确定性的“或许”。
Original English >> Yeah. Loadbearing maybe.
**>>**: 那么，财政恶化的原因是什么？
Original English >> Yeah. Okay. Uh what's the explanation for the deterioration in our finances?
**>>**: 这对大家来说并不意外：经济增长慢于预期，应对特朗普关税及其他外交政策选择的影响，以及全球整体经济动荡。全省原先预计实际GDP增长率为1%，现在将今年的预测下调至仅0.5%。虽然预计后续年份会有所回升，但这给今年和明年的预算造成了沉重打击。 此外，政府决定向应急基金注资，这也记为额外支出。他们尚未分配这笔资金，但预计会用掉。他们关注的问题之一是，从技术层面上讲，原本有一整批新关税定于1月1日生效——特朗普针对我们的报复性关税采取的再报复措施，这是政府担忧的。如果这笔钱没花掉，将用来偿还债务并缩减赤字，但目前他们预计会花光所有的额外应急资金。 我还想提另一件事：另一个重大的经济变量是二手房市场的下滑，销售量和转售价格均出现萎缩。这很有意思，因为至少有一部分责任可能在政府自己。他们之前大肆宣传要削减新建房屋的合并销售税（HST）。政府承认，市场上出现了一定程度的从二手房转向新房建设的转移，部分原因正是他们在春季出台的税收措施。当然这并非全部原因，二手房板块本身就疲软。但这又是政治中的典型教训：今天的问题往往是上周的解决方案造成的。
Original English >> Uh well, this won't come as a galloping shock to anybody, but slower than expected economic growth reaction to uh Trump's tariffs and uh let's say um some other foreign policy choices, general economic chaos globally. Uh the province had been expecting real GDP growth of 1%, they're now forecasting uh only 0.5% growth for this year. uh that is expected to catch up in later years, but it's a big hit to the budget uh for this year and and the next one. Uh there was also a decision to top up the government's contingency fund and that gets booked as more spending. Um they are they haven't allocated that money yet, but they expect to. One of the things that they are keeping their eye on is that at least technically uh there are a whole bunch of new tariffs that were supposed to get applied on January 1st. uh you know retaliatory tariffs from Trump retaliating to our retaliatory tariffs. Um so that is something that the government is is worried about. Uh if that money is not spent it will then be used to pay down the the debt and uh would would result in a smaller deficit. Uh but at the moment they say they expect to to spend all of that uh extra contingency spending. I do want to mention one other thing. the uh another big uh change in the economic variables was a decline in resale homes uh which shrank both in the number of sales and also the resale price uh of homes. Um this one's an an interesting one because at least a little bit of this might actually be the government's fault. Um they of course made a big show about um cutting the HST on new uh homes uh that are are purchased uh like new construction. Uh and there is some shift uh the the the government sort of acknowledged that there has been some shift in the market away from resale homes and to the new construction um in part because of the tax measures that they brought in uh in the spring. It's not doing all of the work. the the resale home sector was already soft to begin with. Um but you know it it's one of those lessons in politics that sometimes the cause of today's problems was last week's solutions.
**>>**: 确实，这种事屡见不鲜。既然出现这么多财政赤字，政府打算怎么应对？
Original English >> Indeed, we see that all the time. Okay, so lots more red ink. What does the government intend to do about it?
**>>**: 财政部长已经表示既不加税，也不削减医疗支出，这就没有剩下多少其他选择了，毕竟医疗支出是公共开支中最大的单项。在这份秋季经济报告中——我手头正好有这份报告，题为《保护安大略的计划》，这也是预算案的标题，近几年似乎一直是这个标题——我们看到的是非常严厉的开支紧缩，涉及除医疗以外的几乎所有政府部门。 看几个具体数字：到2030年，安省在医疗领域的支出预计比今年增加80亿加元；而在其他所有广泛公共支出类别中——教育、高等教育、司法部门、交通等等，总计都将面临开支削减。各部门的情况当然会有所不同，但总体而言，如果你不在医疗系统工作而是在公共部门供职，接下来的几年日子将会过得比较艰难。
Original English >> So the finance minister has said that he will not be uh raising taxes and he will not be cutting healthcare spending and that does not leave a lot of other options. the healthcare spending being the single biggest chunk of uh public spending. Uh so what we see in this fall economic statement and sorry I should say we have the fall economic statement right here. Uh it is once again called a plan to protect Ontario. Uh that was also the title of the budget. I think that's been the title going for a few years now. Um what we see in the fall economic statement is a pretty sharp spending restraint. Uh basically every other part of the government aside from healthcare. Uh just to put some numbers on this, Ontario is projected to spend an extra eight billion dollars in the health sector by 2030 relative to this year. Every other broad category of public spending, you know, education, post-secondary, uh the justice sector, uh transportation, everything else, uh in aggregate, uh you're going to see cuts in spending. Uh now that's going to vary from ministry to ministry of course but overall basically if you do not work in healthcare uh and you work in the public sector uh there is going to be some lean years coming.
**>>**: 我们下周还会就此深入讨论。届时本节目的老朋友、多伦多大学蒙克全球事务与公共政策学院的经济学家Brian Lewis会加入我们，对这些数据展开更深度的剖析。不过刚才你还提到了减少繁文缛节法案，那具体是怎么回事？
Original English >> We are going to talk about this more next week. We'll expand on some of the numbers that you just gave because uh economist friend of the show man about town of the monk school of global affairs and public policy at uft Brian Lewis who's been here before he's going to join us and we're going to do a little deeper dive into the numbers then. But you also mentioned the red tape reduction act. Okay. What's that all about?
**>>**: 这指的是第140号法案，即《加速建设安大略法案》（Building Ontario Faster Act），由负责减少繁文缛节的厅长Andrea Khanjin提出。这类法案通常每年出台一到两次，往往汇集了各种各样的措施，而这一部法案规模尤为庞大。它包含23个独立的附表，修改了包括《司法审判法院法》、《环境评估法》、《都市联通法》、我最喜欢的《规划法》，甚至还有《蜜蜂法》。没错，安大略省真的有部《蜜蜂法》。
Original English >> So this is bill 140, the building Ontario faster act which was introduced by the minister for red tape reduction, Andrea Kenjen. Uh these bills happen about once or twice a year and they are always a grabag of different measures. Uh and this one is kind of a big grabag. Uh, it has 23 separate schedules including changes to the Courts of Justice Act, the Environmental Assessment Act, the Metro Links Act, the Planning Act, my favorite, and the Bees Act. Yes, Ontario has a bees act.
**>>**: 《蜜蜂法》？
Original English >> Bees act.
**>>**: 对，用来监管蜂蜜的生产和安全运输。
Original English >> Yeah. To like regulate the uh uh production and like the safe transportation of honey.
**>>**: 原来如此。
Original English >> Oh, okay.
**>>**: 毕竟蜂蜜是食品，肯定得受监管。第140号法案对23部不同的法律做出了重大修改，我们不会逐一讨论，但挑几个重头的说说。
Original English >> Right. It's it's a food. You want regulated, right? >> Um, so yes, I think that's wonderful. Uh, Bill 140 makes substantial changes to 23 different laws. And uh, we are not going to uh, talk about each of those, but we are going to go over some of the biggies.
**>>**: 好的。首先聊聊每两周就与省会城市各家各户息息相关的一项：蓝盒回收。具体有什么新动向？
Original English >> Yes, we are. We're going to start with one that touches on every household here in the capital city every couple of weeks or so, and that is bluebox recycling. What can you tell us? So over
**>>**: 过去十年左右，全省逐步从由市政当局负责垃圾回收的旧体制，过渡到目前由生产商和零售商出资运营蓝桶回收的体系。这被称为“生产者延伸责任”，减轻了市政当局回收这些物品的成本。但零售商和生产商开始抱怨新体系的成本过高，希望政府能放宽要求，最好能降低成本。政府正考虑满足这一诉求，预计将就如何处理极难回收的物品（如在回收流中很难处理的特定塑料）展开公众咨询。 但退一步来看，我们最初为什么要回收？首先是因为垃圾填埋场的寿命有限，回收有助于延长填埋场寿命。政府正从两方面着手解决：一是放宽新建或审批垃圾填埋场的限制；二是放宽对现有废弃物焚烧的处理要求。从技术上讲，他们称之为“垃圾能源化”，对普通人而言，其实就是焚烧不可回收物来发电。
Original English the last decade or so, the province has slowly transitioned from the old system where municipalities ran uh recycling collection to a current system where manufacturers and retailers pay to operate the blue bin collection. Uh this is called extended producer responsibility and it relieves municipalities of the costs of collecting those items. But retailers and manufacturers uh have started complaining that the costs of this new system are too high for them and they want the government to make it easier and ideally uh cheaper for them. So the government is considering doing uh just that with public consultations expected about what to do with particularly hard to recycle items uh certain kinds of plastics that um uh really don't work well in the recycling stream. Um but we're going to zoom out for a moment here and say, you know, why do we recycle in the first place? Well, the reason we recycle in the first place is because landfills have a finite uh lifespan and recycling uh is one reason to do it is because it helps extend the lifespan of those landfills. And the government is also addressing that in two ways. Uh they are making it easier to build or at least to approve new landfills and they're making it easier to start incinerating uh existing waste. Uh technically they are calling it energy from waste. To the rest of us, this is simply burning non-recyclables to generate electricity.
**>>**: 我想追问一下：你提到放宽新建垃圾填埋场的审批。在几年前的2020年，政府赋予了市政当局一项前所未有的权力，即有权拒绝在辖区内建设新的垃圾填埋场，拥有否决权。这一规定变了吗？
Original English >> Let me do a follow-up on that. You mentioned easier to build new landfill sites. Few years ago, back in 2020, the government gave municipalities something that they had not had before and that was the power to say no, we don't want a new landfill site in our jurisdiction and we can veto that. Has that changed?
**>>**: 确实变了。他们正在废除《环境评估法》中的相关条款，而该条款正是现任政府在短短六年前亲自制定的。市政当局将失去阻止在本地建设填埋场的权力。技术上讲他们仍有权提出反对，但仅限于作为环境评估程序的一部分。换言之，市议会的权利将变得与你我或任何环保NGO完全一样：你可以通过咨询程序向政府提交意见书，而我相信政府给予这套意见的关注度和权重也会和普通公众意见毫无二致。 这在你看来是否又是省政府进一步侵蚀市政权力的例证？法律中向来存在某些豁免条款，比如《规划法》中明确规定某些权力不适用于X、Y、Z等类别。典型例子是过去的安省水电局（Ontario Hydro），以及现在的安省发电公司（OPG）和第一水电（Hydro One）：市政当局无权对发电站进行分区规划。如果OPG想在你的城市建电厂，形式上并不需要获得许可；作为负责任的公有企业公民他们通常会表现得很客气，但法律上他们不需要市政规划许可。对市政权力的例外规定一直存在。这其实是个显而易见的问题：填埋场虽然不招人待见，但大家都承认必须要有，也承认没人希望它建在自家后院，可垃圾总得有去处。所以在2020年之前的很长时间里市政当局并没有这个权力，随后几年法律赋予了他们这项权力，现在又被剥夺了。我更倾向于认为，最初赋予这个权力本身可能就是个错误，但道格·福特在2018年大选中许下了诺言，觉得必须兑现，而现在他们开始意识到这并不是个好主意。
Original English >> It sure has. Uh they are repealing the section of the environmental assessment act uh that this government itself enacted uh only six years ago. Uh municipalities will lose the power to stop landfills in their own areas. uh technically they will still have the power to object. Uh it will only be as part of the uh environmental assessment process. So the the municipal council will have exactly as much right as you or I or any environmental NGO for example. You can file your commentary with uh the government through their consultation process and I'm sure they will give it exactly as much uh attention and weight as they do all those other comments. Is this uh in your view another example of how the province is sort of making a further incursion on municipal power? They have always been sections of the law uh and and some of these are very clear in the planning act where they say you know uh none of the powers in this law apply to you know uh categories x y or z right and so one of the the classic examples is you know back when it was Ontario hydro and now uh Ontario power generation and um hydro 1 uh municipalities cannot zone for electrical power uh uh stations uh they they just If OPG wants to build a power plant in in your city, it does not formally need permission as good publicly owned corporate citizens, they like to be nice about it, but uh they do not require uh municipal zoning to do it. There have always been some exceptions to to municipal powers. And this one's kind of an obvious one, right? Where like it not pretty, but we all acknowledge that we need landfills and we also all acknowledge that nobody wants one, but they need to go somewhere. And so for a very long time up until 2020 uh municipalities did not have that power and now for a few short years they had that power in law and now they are losing it again. I sort of see this more as it was probably a mistake in the first place but Doug Ford made a promise in the 2018 election. He felt the need to keep it and now they're kind of realizing that it was not a great idea.
**>>**: 好的，休会后议会复会的第一周，让我们快速梳理一下出现的其他几个议题。私立职业学院，昨天在质询环节引发了激烈讨论，具体情况如何？
Original English >> All right, first week back for the legislature since the break. So, let's do a bunch of quick hits here on some of the other issues that came up. Private career colleges, it was big at question period yesterday. What can you tell us?
**>>**: 整个行业仍在受到仓促宣布的安省助学金（OSAP）资格调整的冲击。反对党批评人士要求Quinn厅长辞职，但厅长表示绝不辞职。
Original English >> Uh, the sector is still sort of reeling from the hastily announced changes to uh OSAP qualifications. Uh, the opposition critics are calling for Minister Quinn to resign. Uh, he says he will not.
**>>**: 省政府暂停向这些私立职业学院注资，确实导致大量学生陷入困境。
Original English >> It's a lot of students being left high and dry though with the fact that the province has now put the brakes on any more money going out to these private career colleges.
**>>**: 是的，资金何时能重新恢复发放目前完全未知，这些学生的受教育权益在某种程度上是否能得到弥补，现在全都是悬念。
Original English >> Yeah. And we don't know really uh when the that money will start flowing again, whether these students will uh get uh you know whether their educations will uh be made whole in some sense. It's it's all up in the air right now.
**>>**: 疑团重重。那么多伦多的自行车道呢？有什么最新进展？
Original English >> Lots of questions. How about bike lanes here in Toronto? Latest on that.
**>>**: 省府聘请的承包商仍在拆除那些自行车道。由于抗议者的极力阻挠，工程进展缓慢。
Original English >> The uh provinially hired contractors are still working on uh removing those bike lanes. It's been slowgoing because of um very motivated protesters.
**>>**: “极力阻挠”这词用得挺委婉，过程中有几个人被捕了。
Original English >> Uh that's a nice way to put it. very motivated protesters. Few people arrested along the way.
**>>**: 确实有几个人被捕，他们至少成功让工期拖延了几天。
Original English >> A few people have been arrested and and they they managed to slow the work down by a few days at least.
**>>**: 再看一条：苏圣玛丽（Sault Ste. Marie）省议员Chris Scott的指控有了处置结果。
Original English >> Let me do one more here. The member of the legislature for Sue St. Marie, Chris Scott, has had his charges dealt with.
**>>**: 也许你可以为我们更新一下最新情况。
Original English >> Maybe you should bring us up to date on that.
**>>**: 好的。这显然是一桩非常严肃的事件。Scott此前被指控涉嫌家庭暴力。检方目前已经撤回了这些指控。当指控公布时，Scott作为进步保守党议员当选，随即被逐出进步保守党党团。尽管面临新民主党和地方工会的辞职压力以及要求举行补选的呼声，他仍一直以独立议员身份履职。目前他继续担任省议员，但政府已经表态不会欢迎他重返进步保守党党团。政府议会领袖Steve Clark本周明确表达了这一点。我知道Scott原本期望指控撤销后能重返党团，但事实并非如此。
Original English >> Right. And so this is obviously a very uh serious story. Uh Scott was accused of um domestic violence, I guess, is the best way to put it. Um those charges have been withdrawn by the crown. Uh and uh Scott had been elected as a progressive conservative MPP when the charges were announced. Uh he was expelled from the PC caucus. Uh he has uh continued to sit as an independent uh despite some pressure from uh the NDP and uh local unions uh demanding that he resign and uh that that the government call a bi-election. Uh he uh remains sitting as an MPP. Uh the government has said he will not be welcomed back into the PC caucus. Government House Leader Steve Clark saying that this week. I know it was his hope that if the charges were dropped, he would be welcomed back into the party caucus. Not the case.
**>>**: 是的，我想Clark的原话是“我们对党员有更高的标准要求”。所以在这个案例中，这不仅仅是刑事责任的问题。据称还有涉及不忠的指控，姑且这么说吧。显然这对他及其家人而言是一个非常敏感且令人沮丧的话题。但政府没有义务在议员离开后必须欢迎他或任何人重新归队。
Original English >> No, I I believe the quote from Clark was that uh you know, we hold our uh members to a higher standard. So, it's it's not just a a question of criminal liability in this case. There also is allegation that he committed adultery, I guess, for lack of a better word. And um you know obviously this is a very uh touchy and upsetting uh topic for him and his family. Um but the government is not obligated to welcome him or any other MPP back in uh once they are gone
### 专栏分享：省府与市政新格局、密西沙加世纪冷门 **>>**: 完全正确。好的，进入“你的专栏，我的专栏”环节。又到了我们的常规栏目“你的专栏，我的专栏”，我和JMM将在此聊聊过去一周我们在TVO网站（tvo.org）上撰写的专栏文章。欢迎大家访问该网站阅读全文。JMM，本周你打算给我们分享什么？
Original English >> quite so. All right moving on to your column my column. Time now for our regular feature your column my column in which JMM and I have a little chitchat here about the columns we wrote for the TVO website tvO.org. over the past week. Go to the site, click on the articles, you can read all about it. JMM, what are you going to favor us with this week?
**>>**: 我们刚才已经梳理了在本周市政选举中大批落选的现任者，尤其是多座城市的市长席位。我特别想指出的是，这给省长以及市政事务厅长Rob Flack带来了多么巨大的工作量。坦率地说，这位省长——相较于他的前任尤甚——在处理全省市政事务时非常倚重私人关系。看看他对邹至蕙与Bradford之间的竞选态度就知道了，那种近乎背书邹至蕙的姿态：如果单把两人的政治立场落在纸面上，你肯定会以为他会支持Bradford。但对这位省长而言，私人关系以及他与这些人的相处融洽度至关重要。 而如今，包括我之前提到的温莎市的Drew Dilkens在内，大批私人关系必须与完全陌生的新面孔重新建立。这甚至还没考虑某些新市长是打着明确反对省府政策的施政纲领当选的。例如在奥克维尔，新市长当选时的承诺就是要撤销该社区的部长级分区命令（MZO）。因此，尽管这些社区经历的是充满变革的选举，并带来各种我们坐在央街夹埃格林顿（Yonge and Eglinton）不便妄加评论的本地深远影响，但从省政层面来看，确实有大量全新的关系亟待建立，这也对整个安省未来的运转方式产生重大影响。
Original English >> So, we've already gone over the the wave of incumbents who lost uh particularly the the mayor's offices uh in this week's municipal elections. And one thing I wanted to really point out is how much work this now makes for uh the premier and for the minister of municipal affairs, Rob Flack. Right. the premier, this premier specifically, um, frankly, I mean, certainly more than his immediate predecessor, uh, really relies on personal relationships, uh, in terms of, uh, you know, his his managing of of municipal affairs around the province, right? Uh, I mean, just look at, you know, him kind of sort of mostly not quite endorsing Olivia Chow over Bradford. Like if you just put their respective political stances on paper, you would have assumed he would endorse Brad Bradford. But no, this this is uh for this premier at least uh it is as much about personal relationships and how he gets along with these people. And a whole bunch of those personal relationships now uh I mentioned Drew Dilson's in in Windsor. Uh those personal relationships now have to be restarted with entirely new faces and entirely new people. Uh and that's not even getting to the issue that some of these new mayors have been elected on platforms specifically opposed to provincial policies in their communities, right? Uh in Oakville, the new mayor uh has been uh elected with a promise to get uh ministerial zoning orders reversed in his community. Uh so as much as these are uh change elections in these communities and and you know there's all sorts of local ramifications there that you know I'm not even going to pretend to comment on from you know the distance where you know we're sitting here at Young at Egllandon but from a provincial affairs standpoint uh yeah there's a lot of new relationships that need to be built. There's a lot of uh implications for how the province is going to run.
**>>**: 我能就此追问一个问题吗？过去一周有某位善意的记者向道格·福特提问：“省长，你刚失去了许多关系密切、被视为你盟友的人，他们现在都下台了。你是否由此推断下一个就轮到你了？”他显然不想接这个话茬。但这确实是一个有趣的政治理论：如果你动不了国王，就先对付国王的门徒，伺机再去动国王。 我这篇专栏是以今年八月在渥太华举行的安省市政协会（AMO）年会上的一桩趣事开篇的。当时有人把我拉到一旁闲聊即将到来的市政选举，他们说：“我觉得今年会有一大批市长落选。”这是当时对方提出的理论，早在八月，那人就分析道：在省选和联邦大选中，显然有很多人对现任者感到不满，但受制于唐纳德·特朗普的局势以及需要维护稳定的心态，选民最终还是投票给了现任者——在联邦层面投给了自由党（尽管换了新领袖），在安省投给了道格·福特。那人指出，对现状的挫败感并未消散，因而这种情绪将被转嫁并发泄到一大批现任市长身上。虽然从政治学角度我无法科学证实这个假说，但它深深印在了我的脑海里。周一晚上当我开始看到开票结果涌入时，我坐在舒适的家中，忍不住爆了一两句粗口。
Original English >> Can I ask a follow-up question on that? In as much as some I'm sure well-intentioned journalist put the question to Doug Ford this past week that Premier, you've just lost a lot of people that you had good close relationships with who were considered allies of yours and they're all gone now. Do you infer from that that you're next? And he certainly did not want to go there with that. But I mean it is an interesting political theory that you know if you can't get the king, you're going to get the king's disciples and wait for your chance to get the king after that. I opened this column with uh an anecdote from uh this year's uh AMO conference in Ottawa in August where somebody pulled me aside and we were chatting about the coming municipal elections and they said, you know, I think there's going to be a bunch of mayors who lose this year because this was the theory that was posed to me. This was back in August. As person said, um, we had provincial and federal elections where clearly there were a lot of people who were frustrated with the incumbents, but because of the circumstances of Donald Trump and a feeling that they needed to sort of protect stability, uh, they ended up voting for the incumbents. They voted for the Liberal Party federally, even though it was a different leader, of course, and they voted for uh, Doug Ford in Ontario. And uh this person suggested that that frustration uh with the status quo had not gone anywhere and so it was going to get displaced onto a bunch of incumbent mayors. Um and uh it's not provable. It is like it's as a scientific hypothesis. I could never, you know, prove this in a in a political science sort of way, but it stuck in my mind. And then when I started seeing those returns come in on Monday night, I was like I well I was in the comfort of my own home and I don't mind telling you. I uh uttered an obsity or two.
**>>**: 不是因为你在意具体某场竞选的结果，而是因为那个人的预言惊人地言中了。
Original English >> Not because you cared about the outcome of those particular races, but because the guy's theory came through pretty loud and clear.
**>>**: 没错，而且绝不仅发生在一两个地方。
Original English >> Yeah. Yeah. No. And and I mean not just in one or two places, right?
**>>**: 看到密西沙加的选举结果时我倒是没爆粗口。现在回到我的T恤话题上，聊聊Hazel McCallion留下的老城，以及她在那里至今扮演的角色。但必须承认，看到密西沙加开票结果的那一刻，我整个人惊呆了。这堪称我报道生涯中见过的最不可思议的冷门，大概是自1962年Donald Somerville击败Nathan Phillips成为多伦多市长以来未曾有过的——先声明一下我可没报道过1962年那场大选。 密西沙加的选战原本被认为是怎样的？精明的筹码全押在现任市长Carolyn Parrish对决前市长Bonnie Crombie上，她们吸引了所有的眼球，吸光了几乎所有相关新闻报道的关注度。她们有很多共同点：都曾担任联邦自由党国会议员，都曾在密西沙加市议会任职，都当过密西沙加市长。Crombie辞去市长职务担任安省自由党领袖，2025年输给道格·福特后，心想“那我再杀回市政厅试试”。而Carolyn Parrish才刚当了两年的市长。Parrish原以为只要Crombie不参选，自己有极大机会连任。当Crombie重返战局时，一切都变了。这场竞选被两人之间的敌意彻底笼罩，局面很不体面，辩论甚至演变成了对骂。有一段著名的现场视频镜头：在一场全候选人辩论中，两名女性唇枪舌剑激烈互掐，台下一位年轻女性双手抱头无奈地摇头，因为现场吵得根本什么都听不清，观感实在太差了。
Original English >> Well, okay. I did not utter any obscenities when I saw the results of the election in Missaga. And we're going to get back to my t-shirt here. Yes. about Hazel Mall's uh old Berg and how much she still has a role to play in what goes on there. Uh but I but I will say you could have knocked me over with a feather when I saw the return starting to come in for Missaga because it literally was I think the most astonishing upset I've ever seen. Uh oh, probably since 1962 when Donald Somerville defeated Nathan Phillips to become the mayor of Toronto. And no, I did not cover that race just in case you were wondering. This Missaga race was supposed to be, right? Like all the smart money was on Carolyn Parish versus Bonnie Crombi, the current mayor versus the former mayor. And they got all the attention and you know, truly they sucked up all the oxygen of every news story that seemed to be done on that. They had a lot in common. They were both liberal members of parliament. They both served a stint on Missaga Council. They were both mayors of Missaga. Crombi, of course, left to become the Ontario Liberal leader for a little while. Lost to Doug Ford in 2025. thought, "Well, I'll give it another shot." Back at city hall, Carolyn Parish has only been the mayor for a couple of years. Carolyn Parish herself thought she had a great shot to be reelected, provided Crombie stay out of the race. That all changed when she got back into the race. This race was just overwhelmed by the enmity between those two candidates. It wasn't good. The debates became shouting matches. There is that famous video of the of the the shot of a young woman in the audience at an all candidates debate where the two women are going at each other hammer and tongue and this young woman just has her her you know her hands in her face shaking her head because you can't hear anything. It just it just wasn't good.
**>>**: 比你年轻的Alvin Tedjo则埋头苦干，专心谈政策，始终保持积极正面的态度。在两位女性吸走大量目光的情况下，许多人忽视了竞选后期的突变：他的支持率从竞选初期的4%一路飙升至投票日的39%，崛起势头令人惊叹。Parrish最终只拿下27%，Crombie获得23%。这充满了讽刺意味：Parrish原本担心自己能否战胜Crombie，她确实赢了Crombie，
Original English >> Alvin Tedjo, younger than you, he kept his head down. He kept talking policy. He kept being positive with so much attention on the two women. I think a lot of people missed the late breaking story in the campaign which was his move from as I suggested earlier 4% when the campaign began to 39% on election day. It was just an astonishing rise. Parish ended up at 27%. Crombi got 23%. There are some ironies here. I mean Parish was worried about being able to beat Crombi. She did beat Crombi. Yeah,
**>>**: 但她没能赢下另一个人。
Original English >> it's the other guy she didn't beat.
**>>**: 事实证明Crombie并不是那个更具威胁的对手。必须承认的是，当投票日前公布的每份民调都显示你会赢时，要发表败选演讲是极其艰难的。
Original English uh he was turns out she was not the more dangerous opponent. You've got to give credit where it's due. Giving a concession speech when every poll that had been published up until election day showed you winning. Yeah.
**>>**: 这说的就是Crombie，那无疑无比难熬。但她表现得非常得体，风度翩翩，展现了高姿态，盛赞了Tedjo，表示为他加油并愿意提供协助等等。在发表败选演讲前，她或许考虑过输的可能性，但我敢肯定她绝未料到自己会沦为第三名，这在当时几乎不可想象。 最后留给大家一个关于密西沙加政治的冷知识：猜猜看密西沙加有多少年没选出过男性市长了？
Original English >> And that's Crombi. That's got to be just incredibly difficult. And she did a great job of it. She got out there. She was classy. She took the high road. She gave Ted Joe props. Um said she's rooting for him. Offered to be helpful, etc., etc. Uh, I'm sure the notion of losing had occurred to her before she gave that speech. I'm not sure the notion of coming third had occurred to her. That was almost unimaginable. And let me leave you with a little final oddity about Missaga politics. Guess how many years it's been since Missaga elected a man to be the mayor of that city.
**>>**: 这个我碰巧知道，大概有50年了。
Original English >> I I happen to know this one. It has been something like 50 years.
**>>**: 整整50年。上一次男性当选密西沙加市长——你肯定不知道那个人的名字吧？或者你可能知道？
Original English >> It's 50 years. The last time a man won an election for mayor of Missaga, you you're not going to know the guy's name, are you? Or you might know his name.
**>>**: 我忘了。
Original English >> Uh, no, I have forgotten.
**>>**: 叫Ron Searle，他在1976年胜选。自那以后，历任市长是Hazel McCallion、
Original English >> Ron Surl was his name. He won the election in 76. And ever since then, Hazel McCallion.
**>>**: 没错。
Original English >> Yes.
**>>**: Bonnie Crombie、Carolyn Parrish。
Original English >> Bonnie Crombie, Carolyn Parish.
**>>**: 是的。
Original English >> Yes.
**>>**: 所以我想告诉收看节目的年轻小伙子们：只要好好表现，埋头苦干，你们也一样有希望。看节目的年轻小伙子们，总有一天你们也能当上密西沙加市长。对于觉得自己永无出头之日的年轻男生来说，这面玻璃天花板终于被打破了——开个玩笑而已，别给我写信抗议，大家知道我只是在逗乐，至少试图幽默一下。 好的，进入读者来信环节。如果您有迫切的问题或真知灼见，欢迎随时发送邮件至onpolitics@tvo.org。JMM，开读吧。
Original English >> So, I want to let you young boys who are watching this know that if you play your cards right, just keep your head down and do your job. Yes. You, too. You young lads watching this, you can be the mayor of Missaga someday. A glass ceiling has now been broken for you poor young boys who think you'll never have a chance to be I'm being facicious here. Don't write me letters. You know I'm being funny here, okay? Or trying to be anyway. All right, let's go to the mailbag. If you've got a burning question or an insightful comment, we always like to hear from you at the email address on politics at tvo.org. JMM fire away.
### 观众来信与法律释义、结语 **>>**: 这封邮件来自多伦多的听众Naman Sood，他写道：“您好，感谢制作这档节目。正如大家常做的那样，我正在安大略省e-Laws法律网站上阅读《合作社法》（Co-operative Corporations Act）……”
Original English Uh, this is an email from listener Naman Sud in Toronto who writes, "Hello, thank you for the show. I was reading the Cooperative Corporations Act on the Ontario E-Laws website as one does."
**>>**: 天哪，他比你还硬核。
Original English >> Oh my gosh, he's worse than you.
**>>**: 我正想说这显然是OnPoli的铁杆观众。他接着写道：“我发现了一个微小的排版错误。法条中使用了‘whatever’一词，而显然本意是指‘whatsoever’。我就此给我的省议员Chris Glover发了邮件，他选区办公室一位友善的工作人员将其转交给了e-Laws编辑团队，预计这个笔误会被修正。我的问题是：在什么情况下，修改被认定为足够微小和无关紧要，以至于官僚只需根据‘他们显然是指这个’就能直接修改，而在什么情况下必须通过立法程序来修正法律？这在任何地方有法律条文规定吗，还是纯粹视具体情况而定？感谢，来自多伦多的Naman。”
Original English >> Oh, I was going to say clearly an ony viewer and I found a tiny typo. The word whatever was used when clearly the word whatsoever was intended. I emailed my MPP Chris Glover about this and a nice person in his consid office forwarded it to the e-law's editorial team where presumably the typo will be fixed. My question to you is when is something considered a small and insignificant enough change that it can simply be fixed by a bureaucrat going well they obviously meant that versus requiring legislation to amend the law is this encoded anywhere at all or are we just going off fibs I mean going on a case-byase basis thanks Nan from Toronto Ontario
**>>**: 我不敢确定，但这可能是我读过最具有John Michael McGrath风格的问题了，接力棒交给你了。
Original English >> I am not sure but this may be the most John Michael McGrath question I've ever read so I pass the baton to you
**>>**: 好的。我觉得Naman探讨的场景是：假设省议会通过的法律文本在录入网站时出现了真正的排版录入错误，那种情况下编辑团队当然可以直接更正错别字。但在他提到的具体法条中情况并非如此，因为在这个语境下，“whatever”实际上就是作为“whatsoever”的同义词使用的。在各种法律中都是这么用的，这既非打字错误也非笔误，而是法律术语中对“whatever”的规范用法。 不过法律中有时确实会出现错误，或者某些语言随着时代变迁变得古旧，我们现在的词汇用法发生了变化。当案件提交到法庭时，法官就必须思考：“等等，在现代语境下我该如何以合乎逻辑的方式解释这种表述？”对于Naman的问题，最明确的答案是：如果法律本身确实存在用词错误，唯一有权修改成文法的机构是安大略省议会。如果是议会制定了法律且行文有误，必须通过提出新法案来修正或修订法律，这是黑白分明的宪政法原则。 但有时语言变得古旧、晦涩，或者起草者在1950年代有其特定意图，而现代人的语言习惯变了，法官就不得不琢磨如何解释那些生僻古旧的表述。此时法院可以借助几项工具，我提其中两个：第一是《释义法》（Interpretation Act）。存在专门指导法官如何解释法律的成文法，我非常喜欢这部法。举个简单的例子：70年来安大略省的每部法律都是以女王伊丽莎白二世陛下的名义通过的，难道因为王位传给国王查尔斯三世陛下，这些法律就突然失效了吗？当然没有，因为《释义法》中有具体条款明确予以维持。 加拿大法院尤其在以英法双语公布法律的省份可以采用的另一项原则是：如果法律的英文文本中存在用词模糊不清之处，法院有权参考该法律的法文文本；如果法文表述更加精确，那么更精确的语言版本将成为具有约束力的司法解释。问问我怎么知道这些的，Steve。
Original English >> right so uh I think what Naman is getting at here like you could imagine a context in which there was a genuine um error in uh there's like a text of the law passed by the legislature that was just typed into the website wrong and in that case I'm sure the editorial team can just uh fix a typo. But that's not what is happening in this specific case that he has cited because the word whatever is used in this context as a synonym for the word whatsoever. Uh and it's it's used in that way in all sorts of laws. It is not a a typo or an error. This is a a a proper use of the word whatever uh in uh legal ease if I can put it that way. But there are sometimes errors in law. Um or you know there are times where like uh language is archaic. uh we've moved on, we use uh words differently now. And then something comes before a court and the judge has to say, "Wait a second. How am I supposed to interpret this uh this language in a way that makes sense in uh the modern context?" The the clearest answer to Nan's question is if there is an error in the law, like we've just actually used the wrong word in a law, the only body that can change the law as it is written is the legislature of Ontario. uh if if they are the one who wrote the law, if they wrote it badly, it has to be a new bill to amend the law or revise it. And that's like black and white constitutional law. Um but there are times when language becomes archaic or it it was written ambiguously or somebody had a clear idea of what it meant back in 1950 or whatever and now we use language differently and a matter comes before a court and a judge has to say, "Well, wait a second. How am I supposed to interpret this law? you're using this weird old language, right? Um, and there are a few different tools that, uh, courts can rely on. I mention two. Uh, one is the interpretation act. There is a law that tells judges how to interpret the law. I love this. >> Um, just as an easy one here, right? For 70 years in Ontario. Every single law was passed in the name of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II. Did those laws suddenly become invalid because the crown passed to his majesty King Charles III? No, they did not because a section of the interpretation act says so. Um, another principle that Canadian courts can use, particularly uh in uh provinces where languages are are published in both uh official languages in English and French. Um there if there's an imprecise word in the English text of the law, the courts are also allowed to consult the French text of the law. And if that language is more precise, then that more precise language becomes the the the binding interpretation. Um now ask me how I know that, Steve.
**Steve Paikin**: 我根本不需要问你怎么知道的，因为你可是John Michael McGrath，你脑子里天然装着这些东西。好吧，我配合你一下：你是怎么知道这一切的？
Original English I don't have to ask you how you know that because you are John Michael effing McGrath and you just know this stuff. Oh, all right. I'll humor you. How do you know all this?
**>>**: 因为当省长道格·福特的已故胞弟罗伯·福特最初被裁定违反《市政利益冲突法》时，这正是诉讼争议的关键法律事实。当时经历过那场官司的人都记得，有一段时间罗伯·福特看似要被逐出市长办公室并被迫重新参选。我不打算深入探讨该案复杂的法律细节，只说明一点：在提出上诉时，上诉的核心要点之一正是《市政利益冲突法》的法文文本比英文文本更为精确。对于单一主题，这解释得比任何正常人需要知道的都要多得多。但Naman，希望这对你有所启发。干得漂亮，Michael，John Michael McGrath，回答得很精彩。
Original English >> Because this was actually a key uh legal fact in dispute when uh the late Rob Ford, the the brother of the premier, Doug Ford. Uh he was initially found to have violated the Municipal Conflict of Interest Act. And those of us who are around remember that trial because for a moment it looked like uh Rob Ford was going to be kicked out of the mayor's office and and forced to run for election again. Um I'm not going to go into the uh legal minutia of that case except to say that when it was appealed uh one key element of the appeal rested on the fact that the French text of the law was more precise than the English text of the Municipal Conflict of Interest Act. That is more about a single subject than any normal person needs to know. But Nean I hope you found it all very helpful. Anyway, well done, Michael. John Michael McGrath, well done.
**>>**: 赶紧收尾吧，你把邮箱地址再报一下。
Original English >> Why don't you give the email again on Let's get out of here.
**>>**: 看看下周我们是否能收到稍微不那么冷门的邮件供我们跟进解答。
Original English >> On on the chance that maybe next week we get a little bit of a less obscure email that we can follow up on.
**>>**: 越冷门越好，越冷门越好。
Original English >> More obscure. More obscure.
**>>**: 再次提醒，如果您对节目内容有任何疑问，请发邮件至onpolitics@tvo.org。
Original English >> Again, if you'd like to ask about content on the show, please email us at onpolitics at tvo.org.
**>>**: 以上就是2026年10月30日星期五的OnPoli播客。您可以在任何播客平台关注我们的节目，以便在新一期上线时收到通知；也可以在TVO Today的YouTube频道收看节目的视频版本。
Original English >> And that is the OnP podcast for this Friday, October 30th, 2026. You can follow our show wherever you get your podcasts so that you get notified each time a new episode is available. And you can see the video version of the podcast on the TV today YouTube channel.
**>>**: 无论好评、批评还是建议，我们都非常乐意聆听。欢迎发送邮件至onpolitics@tvo.org，并请附上您的姓名和所在地。
Original English >> Any feedback you have, we're always happy to hear it, good, bad, or indifferent. Write us an email at onpolitics at tvO.org. Please include your first and last name and where you're from.
**>>**: 本周节目的制作人是Matthew O'Mara，剪辑为Colin Kish。
Original English >> This week's episode was produced by Matthew Omera, editing by Colin Kish.
**>>**: 制作支持来自Jonathan Hallowell和TVO数字媒体服务团队。
Original English >> Production support from Jonathan Hallowell and TVO's digital media services team.
**>>**: Laurie Few是数字执行制片人，Vanessa Case是媒体副总裁。
Original English >> Lorie F is the executive producer of digital. Vanessa Casease is vice president media.
**>>**: 一如既往，特别感谢我们优秀的演播室团队，让播客的视频呈现如此出色。祝大家万圣节快乐！请记住明晚如果在外面开车，请格外留意路边的小朋友们。不给糖就捣蛋，祝大家万圣节快乐，我们下周五再见，拜拜！
Original English >> And as always, we'd like to give special thanks to our wonderful studio crew here for making the video part of the podcast look so darn good. Have a great Halloween, everybody. And remember, tomorrow night, watch out for those little kids if you're out driving in the evening. Trick or treat, everybody. Happy Halloween. And we'll see you again next Friday. Bye-bye.
**>>**: 拜拜！
Original English >> Bye-bye.