--- author: TVO Today date: '2026-11-11' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELHo-krZyug speaker: TVO Today tags: - immigration-policy - demographic-aging - labour-market - economic-growth - retirement-reform title: 加拿大缩减移民与人口老龄化下的经济增长挑战 summary: 节目讨论了加拿大最新的移民目标调整及其对劳动力市场和经济的影响。面对人口老龄化和出生率下降，专家们探讨了削减临时与永久居民配额、提高法定退休年龄、扩大普惠托儿服务以提升女性劳动参与率等应对策略。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: macro-economy area: geopolitics project: [] people: - Jeyan Jeganathan - Anna Triandafyllidou - Brett House - Parisa Mahboubi companies_orgs: - Bank of Canada - RBC - International Monetary Fund - Scotiabank products_models: [] media_books: - The Rundown status: evergreen --- ### 加拿大移民目标削减与政策转向 >> 我不知道你是否听说了，但上周渥太华更新了其移民目标，这些数字说明了相当多的问题。渥太华一直在大幅减少新的临时居民数量，并且这种趋势还将继续。永久居民的数量也注定会下降，但这些并不是渥太华采取的唯一举措。它还表示，到明年年底，将有多达20万名临时居民有机会成为永久居民，因此加拿大正在缩减移民。但这对劳动力市场、经济以及希望在加拿大安家的人们究竟意味着什么？这里还有一个大问题：在加拿大人少生孩子、人口老龄化加剧的情况下，加拿大实际上需要更多人口，此时削减移民是否合理？那么这些挑战对劳动力市场和经济意味着什么？社会保障体系又将如何？我们将深入探讨政府是否走在正确的路线上，以及未来几年可能会是什么样子。我是 Jeyan Jeganathan，这里是《The Rundown》。2026年联邦预算案数次提出了同样的说法：政府已“重新掌控移民”，并正在使其变得更具针对性和可持续性。那么他们的计划针对的是什么，其可持续性又如何？Anna Triandafyllidou，非常高兴你来到《The Rundown》。你最近怎么样？
Original English >> I don't know if you heard, but last week, Ottawa updated its immigration targets and the number tells quite a story. Ottawa has been sharply reducing the number of new temporary residents, and that trend is set to continue. The number of permanent residents is also set to fall, but these aren't the only moves Ottawa's making. It also says up to 200,000 temporary residents will have the chance to become permanent by the end of next year, so Canada is cutting back on immigration. But what will that actually mean for the labour market, the economy and for people hoping to make Canada their home? And there's another big question here. Is Canada cutting immigration at a time when it actually needs more people because Canadians are having fewer children and the population is getting older. So what will those challenges mean for the labour market and the economy? And are social safety net? We dig into whether the government is charting the right course and what the coming years could look like. I'm Jeyan Jeganathan, and this is The Rundown. The 2026 federal budget makes the same claim a few times. The government has, quote, taken back control of immigration and is making it targeted and sustainable. So what is their plan targeting and how sustainable is it? Anna Triandafyllidou, great to have you on The Rundown. How are you doing?
>> 我很好。感谢你的邀请。
Original English >> I'm good. Thank you for having me.
>> 你是加拿大移民与融入研究讲座教授。所以我们将讨论加拿大公布的最新移民计划。该计划的目标是在2027年至2029年间，每年接纳38万名新的永久居民。与2025年的数字相比有所下降。这向那些将加拿大视为移居目标国的人传递了什么信息？
Original English >> You are the Canada Research Chair in Migration and Integration. And so we're going to talk about the latest immigration plan that Canada put out. It aims to welcome 380,000 new permanent residents annually from 2027 to 2029. We compare that to 2025 numbers down. What does this message send to people who are looking at Canada as a country? They want to move to?
>> 我认为现在的关键信息是“稳定”，因为我们此前经历了一段如钟摆般的剧烈波动，先是急剧上升，接着是大幅削减，并改变了入境人员或持不同类型许可证逗留人员的条件。我认为我们现在所追求的是稳定。因此政府坚持了既定的三年计划。如你所知，这是一个三年计划，必要时每年进行调整。这就是我们所看到的。我个人此前也是这样预测的。我认为这很好。我认为我们需要的是——我们可能对具体的人员构成略有分歧，但我认为大家都同意加拿大需要传递一个信息：我们回到了稳定状态，我们是可预测的。
Original English >> I think the message is now stability, because we've had a little bit of a pendulum going really up. Then drastically cutting, changing the conditions for people who were coming or who were here under different types of permits. And I think what we're looking at is stability. So the government has stuck to what was the three year plan. As you know, it's a three year plan with an annual adjustment if needed. So that's what we see. I personally that's what I had predicted. And I think it's good. I think what we need, we may also disagree a little bit about the exact composition, but I think we all agree that Canada needs to give a message. We're back to a stable situation. We are predictable.
>> 优先考虑经济类移民如何支持加拿大的长期目标？正如你所提到的，这里追求的是稳定。目前的一个大重点是将工薪阶层移民引入这里需要的劳动力市场。但这反映了加拿大怎样的长期目标？
Original English >> How does prioritizing economic class immigrants support Canada's long term goals? As you mentioned, stabilization here. There's a big focus here on getting working class migrants into labour markets that are needed here. But what does that say about Canada's long term goals?
>> 首先，我想说在加拿大，公众对移民的看法越来越积极，这与大多数其他主要接收国相比几乎是一个异类，这种态度得到了多元文化叙事和经济叙事的双重支持。我们的体制引进了高技能人才，他们有利于经济发展。而且我认为，政府再次回归了这种叙事：我们需要移民来满足劳动力市场的需求，同时我们是一个大国，有供所有人容身的空间和发展的空间。我们还向来到这里的人许下承诺，他们不仅能找到与家人定居的良好条件，还能在职业上获得发展。
Original English >> First of all, I want to say that in Canada we have had an increasingly positive public opinion on migration, almost as an outlier to most other big host countries, and that has been backed by both a multiculturalist narrative, but also as an economic narrative. Our system brings in highly skilled people, and they're good for the economy. And I think, again, the government is taking or going back to that narrative, that we need immigrants for the labour market, and also we're a big country. The space for everyone and the space to grow. And we also hold the promise to the people that come that they will find the right conditions for settling with their families, but also growing in their careers.
### 法语移民目标与语言社区基础设施 >> 加拿大正高度重视吸引魁北克省以外的法语移民。这些目标是稳定的数字，将从2027年的9.5%上升到2029年的12%左右。为什么这一点很重要？
Original English >> Canada is placing a heavy focus on attracting French speaking immigrants outside of Quebec. The targets are steady number. They will rise from 9.5% in 2027 to about 12% in 2029. Why is that important?
>> 我认为保持国家的双语特性很重要。我们知道，魁北克以外的法语社区规模自六七十年代以来有所缩减，因此即使是一个温和的计划，也是为了壮大这些社区。现在我想说，数字固然重要，但还需要做更多的事情，我认为我们可能会看到更多双语人才涌现。你可能知道，加拿大移民部对法语人口的定义是更习惯于使用其中一种语言。因此这与法语是否是你的母语无关，也不是指你不会说英语，而是指你使用法语比使用英语更自如。现在的问题是，在许多法语社区中确实存在这种情况——想想看，在安大略省，没有足够的法语服务，没有足够的法语学校。我们也看到了相反的情况：来到这里的法语人口希望把孩子送到英语学校，从而让他们的孩子掌握双语。所以我认为这里的数字很重要。但同时我们看到政府，现任政府和上一任政府，怎么说呢，都意识到他们还需要建立起相应的结构性条件。
Original English >> I think it's important to maintain the fact that the country is bilingual. We know that the size of the Francophone communities outside Quebec has shrunk since the 60s and 70s, so that is even a moderate plan to increase those communities. Now, I want to say the numbers are important, but there's a lot more that is needed, and I think likely what we're seeing is more bilingual people coming up. You might know that the way Immigration Canada defines someone being Francophone is being more at ease with one language or the other. So it's not about the French being your mother tongue. It's not about not speaking English. It's about your more at ease with French than rather than with English. Now, the thing is, it's true in many of the Francophone communities. Just think, Ontario, there's not enough Francophone services. There's not enough Francophone schools. We also have the opposite that people who come, who are Francophone would like to get their kids to English speaking schools, so their kids are bilingual. So I think the numbers are important there. But and we see the government, this government and the previous one are, how can I say, aware that they need to put also the, you know, the structural conditions in place.
### 临时居民转正与留学生结构调整 >> 好的。我们来谈谈临时居民，三年内将有37万人融入。这里的具体构成为60%的工人，40%的学生。我们得谈谈留学生，因为这曾是一个重点关注的议题，是新闻头条上的热门讨论，关乎大学和学院如何应对。展望未来，这对他们意味着什么？这个数字对他们来说有利吗？
Original English >> Okay. Let's talk temporary residents, 370,000 will be integrated over three years. The breakdown here, 60% workers, 40% students. We'll have to talk to students because that was a big focus, a big conversation for headlines and how universities and colleges are handling it. What does it mean for them going forward? Is this a number that is good for them?
>> 我认为这是一个困难的处境，因为加拿大以及许多其他所谓竞争国——如澳大利亚、英国、美国，还有德国、现在的瑞典、法国——试图吸引国际学生的原因，就在于他们是青年人才。所以从某种意义上说，你最理想的移民是作为学生来的人，甚至可能是研究生。这样他们在你所在的国家受培养，然后留下来贡献技能。他们年龄年轻，或者带着年轻的家庭前来。但我认为眼下，有关的想法是我们需要让教育系统降温一点，因为系统再次过热了，尤其是在安大略省；其次在较小程度上，但在不列颠哥伦比亚省也很显著，并非所有省份都如此。所以为了稳定，我们也需要在这个领域做出调整。与此同时，我认为我们以及政府都敏锐地意识到，医疗和护理行业存在巨大短缺。更广泛的建筑行业，以及吸引数字人才的想法也是如此。因此有些行业不愿意经历漫长的等待：比如我来留学，学习护理，或学习医学，或学习生物医学工程，然后毕业。所以我认为这是政府目前的走向。我认为，这当然给大学和学院带来了一些挑战。
Original English >> It's a difficult situation, I think, because the reason why Canada and many other countries who are, so to speak, competitors like Australia, the UK, the US, but also Germany, now Sweden, France are trying to attract international students is because these are young talent. So in a way, your ideal migrant is someone who comes as a student, perhaps even as a grad student. So they are formed in your country and then they stay and they contribute their skills. They're young in age, or they bring their young families. But I think right now, the idea was that we need to cool a bit. The education system, because again, it overheated, particularly in Ontario, to second, to a lesser extent, but significantly BBC not in all the provinces. So we need to go there for stability as well. At the same time, I think we are acutely aware in the government is that there are big shortages in health and care. The broader industry in construction, there is the idea of attracting digital talent. So there are some sectors that would not want to wait until I come in. I study nursing or I study medicine, or I study biomedical engineering, and then I graduate. So I think that's where the government is going. I think, of course, that is posing some challenges for universities and colleges.
>> 我们在这个节目中经常谈到某种人才流失，人们来这里读书然后离开。这40%的数字能否保持我们的竞争力，还是说你希望看到这个数字有所回升？
Original English >> Now, we've we've talked on this program a lot about sort of the brain drain and people, you know, either coming and studying here and then leaving, does this number of 40% keep us competitive, or is this a number that you would like to see kind of trickle back up?
>> 我认为加拿大甚至还没考虑过人才流失的问题，因为仔细想想，我们接收到的人才是在其他地方受教育的，成本由其他国家、由他们的家庭来承担。去年关于加拿大全球卫生战略的一份报告估计，加拿大以某种方式——加双引号——每年获得10亿美元，这些资金来自我们因不在本国培训护士、个人护理支持工人甚至医生而节省下来的费用，因为这些人是在国外接受培训的。所以我认为这是我们需要更多思考的事情，而我们在这方面做得还不够。与此同时，对于移民来说，人只有一辈子要过，你有你的家庭，你想为自己和孩子争取最好的条件。所以这是一个复杂的对话。
Original English >> I think, okay, Canada hasn't even thought yet about brain drain because if you think about it, the people we get here have been educated elsewhere at the at the cost of some other country, at the cost of their household, their family, a report on on the global health Strategy of Canada last year was estimating that Canada is receiving, in a way, receiving an inverted commas, $1 billion a year by the money we are saving by not training our nurses, our PSWs, our, even our doctors, because these people have been trained abroad. So I think that's something we need to think a little more about. And we haven't done that sufficiently. At the same time, it is true for the for the migrant, for the immigrant, you got one life to live and you got your family and you want the best for yourself and your children. So it's a complex conversation.
### 临时居民转永久居民举措与资源压力 >> 加拿大最新移民战略的核心特征是允许20万名临时居民一次性过渡为永久居留。请帮我们理解这一点，谁会从中受益？
Original English >> A core feature of Canada's updated immigration strategy is this one time transition of 200,000 temporary residents to permanent residence. Help us understand that. And who benefits from this one?
>> 好的。目前谁会受益还不是很明确。当然，我们再次看到，我认为联邦政府和各省政府，特别是据我所知安大略省政府都意识到，有些人在这个国家已经生活了三年、四年、五年、七年，无论他们是作为劳工还是作为学生来的，并在之后获得了毕业工签；他们受雇于人，是社会所需要的，无论从哪种意义上说都已经安居下来，但在法律身份上尚未定居。我认为总理提到过——老实说，我不记得是总理还是移民部长说的——这些人已经长期居住在加拿大，但从身份上讲还不是永久居民，我们希望为这一过渡提供便利。至于其背后的逻辑是让雇主满意（因为雇主需要这些人），还是出于更人道的考虑（比如我们感谢这些人身处我们的社区），我认为这两种逻辑实际上很好地契合在一起。而且我认为这项举措非常重要。至于究竟谁会受益？我们尚不清楚，因为如我们所知，联邦政府希望与各省密切合作，以确保转为永久居留的人是各省真正需要的人才。如果仔细想想，这带有一点功利主义的逻辑，因为你知道，我的意思是，每个人都拥有同等的价值，我认为认识到这一点很重要。但我认为这是朝正确方向迈出的一步，因为我们研究人员多次强调，这些人已经在租房居住，或者已经在学校求学，他们已经在乘坐多伦多公车局的公交系统。这不会对我们的资源造成额外的压力，我知道资源问题一直以来都备受关注。
Original English >> Okay. It's not very clear yet who benefits. Certainly, again, we see and I think both the federal and provincial governments and I know the the Ontario government in particular is aware that there are people who have been in this country for three, four, five, seven years, whether they came as workers or they came as students and then got the postgraduate work permit, who are employed, who are needed, who are by all means settled, but they're not settled legally. And I think the Prime Minister mentioned that this honestly, I don't remember who was the Prime Minister or the Minister of Immigration who said these people are residing permanently in Canada, but they're not permanent residents by status, and we want to facilitate that. Now, whether the rationale is to keep the employers happy because the employers need those people, or whether the rationale is more humane, like we appreciate these people are in our communities. I think the the two rationales actually happily go together. And I think this measure is very important. Now, who exactly is going to benefit? We don't know, because as we know, the federal government wants to work closely with provinces to make sure they're transitioning to permanent residency. The people that the provinces need. Now, this is a little bit of a utilitarian rationale, if we think about it, because, you know, I mean, every every human has the same value. I think that that's important to Recognize. But I think it's in the step, a step in the right direction in that, again, we know these people, we researchers have said this a lot. These people already rent houses or these people are already at school. They are already using the TTC. It's not going to be an additional, you know, stress on our resources because I know that has been a bit top of mind.
>> 你提到了联邦和省政府之间的合作，我们是否看到了这种迹象？我们知道，在人们去往何处的问题上，各省希望拥有更大的发言权，因为他们处在一线，了解需求在哪里。我们是否在这一计划中看到了一些这样的对话正在发生？
Original English >> Are we seeing you mentioned the feds and the provinces working together? We know that provinces want a bigger seat at the table when it comes to where people go, because they have boots on the ground, they know where the needs are. Are we seeing a little bit of that conversation happening with this plan?
>> 是的，这是我的感觉。我的感觉是联邦政府当时在考虑，好吧，大家一起来吧，让我们一起坐到谈判桌前，告诉我们你们的需求。是的。
Original English >> Yes, that was my feeling. That was my feeling that the federal government was thinking, okay, let's come. Let's go together to the table and, and let us like, tell us what you need. Yes.
### 人口流动与区域留存机制 >> 通常我们可以观察省提名项目或其他项目。常见的批评意见之一是，虽然我们成功将人们引入特定社区，但随着时间的推移，我们知道他们往往会迁回大城市，比如大多伦多地区。
Original English >> Typically with we can look at the provincial nominee program or other programs. One of the criticisms is, yes, we get people into certain communities, but over time, we know that they do travel back into the cities, into, you know, the GTA.
>> 我认为人们离开较小社区的原因，可能与加拿大本土出生者离开的原因相同。所以我认为这超出了移民本身的范畴。我们需要思考，为什么人们会离开？我们能做些什么？例如，我们知道社区内设有高等教育机构往往能留住年轻人。如果有活跃的就业市场，如果当地有一些重要雇主，人们就会留下来；否则他们就会离开。我们还看到一种生活质量的平衡。有些人认为在加拿大大西洋省份生活更舒适，因此有更多退休人员和提前退休人员选择大西洋省份。而且据我们所知，像艾伯塔这样的其他省份在吸引年轻家庭方面表现更为强劲，因为人们在那里看到了机会。我认为这是一个关乎我们总体人口政策的问题，已经超出了移民的范畴。
Original English >> We don't have I think people might be leaving smaller communities for the same reason that those who are Canadian born are leaving. So that's, I think, goes beyond immigration. As such. We need to think, why are people leaving? What can we do? For instance, we know that having a post-secondary education institution in a community tends to keep young people. If you have a lively job market, if you have some important employers there, people stay. Otherwise they don't. We. We also see kind of a balancing out quality of life. So some people think, oh, it's more pleasant to live in Atlantic Canada. So there's more retirees and early retirees choosing Atlantic Canada. And we know, for instance, some other provinces like Alberta are doing stronger when it comes to young families because people see an opportunity there. I think that that's a question of our general population policy that goes beyond migration.
>> 我们的讨论不得不在此告一段落。但非常感谢你抽出宝贵时间，真的很感谢。
Original English >> And we are going to have to leave it there. But I want to thank you so much for your time. Really appreciate it.
>> 非常感谢邀请我。
Original English >> Thank you very much for having me.♪
### 人口老龄化与生产力挑战 >> 在关于移民的讨论中，有家庭的年轻劳工频繁出现的原因之一就是人口老龄化。正如加拿大皇家银行指出的那样，其余的婴儿潮一代将在2030年达到65岁，迎来迄今为止最大的一波退休潮。与此同时，我们的出生率持续下降；据加拿大央行数据，去年人口增长率为0.5%，是一个多世纪以来的最慢增速。那么，当退休人员增多、新生儿减少、移民放缓时，会发生什么？加拿大对即将到来的局面做好了多大准备？Brett House、Parisa Mahboubi，非常高兴你们来到《The Rundown》。很高兴有两位经济学家同台探讨一些重要议题。Brett，你目前在纽约哥伦比亚大学任教，但我应该先说明，你是加拿大人。那么对我们的观众来说，纯粹从经济角度来看，加拿大人口年龄中位数为40岁会带来哪些后果？
Original English >> One of the reasons young workers with families turn up so much in discussions about immigration are ageing population. As RBC points out, the remaining baby boomers will hit 65 by 2030, bringing the largest retirement wave yet. At the same time, our birth rate continues to fall, and last year, population growth was 0.5%, the slowest rate of growth in more than a century, according to the Bank of Canada. So what happens when more people are retiring? Fewer children are being born, and immigration is slowing down? And how prepared is Canada for what's coming next? Brett House, Parisa Mahboubi, great to have you on. "The Rundown". Great to have two economists around the table to talk about some important stuff. Brett, you are in New York. You teach at Columbia. But I should preface, you are Canadian. So for our viewers, in purely economic terms, what are the consequences of Canada having a population whose median age is 40?
>> 嗯，这有几个重大影响。其一是，与几十年来我们人口的标准指标相比，这相对偏老。人口老龄化意味着我们的劳动力变得稍显年长。通常我们发现，对于年长的劳动力，虽然他们更有经验，拥有随之而来的全部知识、见识和判断力，但他们更有可能遭遇健康问题。他们可能会发现部分经验已经过时，而且掌握和学习新技能有时会更加困难。因此这意味着对生产力的影响具有双重性。它还反映了我国出生率的下降以及近期进入该国的移民数量的放缓。因此所有这些因素结合在一起，使得劳动力和人口在创造经济增长方面的意愿和能力可能都有所减弱。
Original English >> Well, there are a few big implications. One is that's relatively old compared to what the standard metric for our population has been for many decades, that ageing population means our workforce has gotten a bit older, and generally we find that with older workforces, while they're more experienced and have all of the knowledge that comes along with that, and the savvy and judgement, they are more likely to suffer health problems. They may find that some of that experience gets outdated, and picking up and learning new skills can sometimes be harder. So that can mean the impact on productivity cuts, two ways. It also reflects a decline in our birth rate and the recent slowdown in immigration numbers into the country. So all those things together are combining to make a workforce and a population that potentially is less inclined and less able to generate economic growth.
>> 请让我们了解一下我们的人口老龄化程度有多深。
Original English >> Give us an idea of how much we've aged as a population.
>> 自上世纪中叶以来的几十年里，我们的人口年龄增加了十岁左右。根据你所持的角度不同，这听起来可能很大，也可能不大。最重要的影响是，这意味着我们确实拥有了一支更加老龄化的劳动力队伍，也意味着我们对年长年龄段群体的抚养比更高，依赖在职工作者来资助我们的社会福利项目。
Original English >> Well, we've aged over a decade, over several years since the middle of the last century. And that may sound like a lot or a little, depending upon the perspective you're coming from. The most important impact is that it means we do have that older working force population, and it means we have greater dependency on people in older age cohorts, on people who are working to finance and fund our social benefit programs.
### 出生率下降的原因剖析 >> 我们来聊聊出生率。出生率几十年来一直处于下降趋势，背后的原因是什么？
Original English >> Let's talk a little bit about birth rates. What are some of the reasons that the birth rate has been declining in a declining trend for for decades?
>> 导致这一现象的因素有几个。这并不意味着人们不想生孩子，而是意味着由于推迟生育，导致生育的孩子减少或者根本不生孩子。其背后的原因有若干方面。其中之一是完成教育和学业，因为现在人们接受了更多的教育，往往在高中毕业后继续接受高等教育，所以这是一个因素。另一个因素是，你为教育进行了投资，希望进入劳动力市场，不想推迟这一进程，因此希望找到一份稳定的工作来开启职业生涯。另一个可能推迟组建家庭的相关因素是获得可负担住房的难易程度。如果你想要孩子，你需要有合适且能够保障的住房。除此之外，在组建家庭并决定何时生育后，还面临其他相关因素，那就是抚养孩子的高昂成本。例如在寻找可负担托儿服务方面，或者在职业发展牺牲、收入影响方面的权衡取舍，而这主要影响到女性。所以这对她们来说是一个重大决定。所有这些因素都导致了推迟生育。此外，考虑到女性适宜生育的年龄阶段是有限的，通过推迟生育，有时想要孩子就会变得更加困难。
Original English >> So there are several factors that contribute to that. It doesn't mean people doesn't people don't want to have children. It means that because they are delaying having children, it leads to fewer children or no children at all. And the reasons behind that is there are several factors. One of them finishing an education and a school, because now people are more educated. They, they, they tend to attend post-secondary education after high school. So one factor is that. Another factor is that. So you invested in your education. You want to enter the labour market. You don't want to delay that. And so you want to to find a secure job starting your career. And also another factor is related that could delay family formation is access to affordable housing. If you want to have children, you want to have suitable, you know, to secure suitable housing. And beyond that, other factors related to after forming a family and deciding when to have children. It's about the cost of high cost of raising a children. For example, when it comes to finding affordable childcare or also in terms of the trade off between, for example, when it comes to sacrifice for career progression, earnings impacts, and it's it's mainly on women. So that's a big decision for them to make. So all these factors contribute to delaying having children. And also, given that the life span for, you know, the productive, productive years for women to have children is limited. So by delaying that, it becomes sometimes more difficult to have children.
### 社会保障体系与财政失衡 >> 好的，我们来谈谈加拿大的社会保障体系。从免费医疗到退休养老金，它建立在总会有更多年轻劳工向系统缴费、老年人能够从中提取资金的假设之上。随着人口停滞和减少，这面临着哪些威胁？
Original English >> All right, let's talk about Canada's social safety net. From free health care to retirement pension. It was built on the assumption that there will always be more young workers paying into the system, that older seniors would be able to draw from it. What are the threats to that? As populations stagnate and decline?
>> 这里最大的挑战在于比例关系，即我们用来支持老一代的劳工数量减少，而加拿大以及任何面临人口老龄化国家的退休人口却在扩大。但这会对政府产生影响。从政府的财政前景来看，这意味着什么？这意味着他们必须提供医疗支出；举例来说，像加拿大养老金计划（CPP）和魁北克养老金计划（QPP）是有资金储备的，大家对此没有太多担忧。最大的担忧在于医疗保健和老年保障金（OAS）。但医疗是一个主要问题。为什么？因为随着人们年龄增长，人均医疗支出会显著增加。而在劳动力增长处于低位的情况下，这意味着税收收入的增长要慢于支出的增加。因此存在失衡，对政府特别是省级政府构成了巨大压力，他们正面临着严峻的预算挑战。
Original English >> So the biggest challenge here is that, so the ratio, the we have fewer workers that support older generation and a larger retired population in Canada, and also any country that's facing an ageing population. But the implication is on government. You know, in terms of the fiscal outlook for for the government, what does it mean? It means that they have to provide health care spending, for example, or pension CPP and QPP they are they are funded. You know, there is there is not much concerns about that. The biggest concern is health care and old age security. But health care is a major one. Why? Because as people get older, the. The per capita spending increases significantly. And so. And when the labour force growth is low. So it means that the. The tax revenue. The growth is slower than the increase in spending. So there is a disbalance and significant pressure on government, especially provincial governments. They are facing significant budget challenges.
### 移民质量与人均 GDP 增长 >> 没错。如果我们的出生率很低且人口正在老龄化，移民在其中扮演着怎样的角色？它是解决之道吗？
Original English >> Right. If our birth rate is low and population is ageing, how does immigration play into this? Is it the answer?
>> 它是答案之一，但不是一个简单的答案。我们在2010年代和2020年代初看到，移民以及进入加拿大的临时外籍工人数量显著增加，但他们并不一定像我们过去在计分制移民体系下看到的那样高技能、高生产力或高学历。这意味着，当我们审视加拿大经济中的人均国内生产总值（人均 GDP）或每人每年收入产出时，顶线总量固然在持续增长，但方程式中的底部分母增长得更快。因此在过去的十年中，每人平均的收入或产出一直处于停滞状态，特别是与美国相比。这意味着，当我们期望恢复扩大移民数量（甚至可能高于近期联邦预算案中概述的数字）以面对不断增加的劳动力需求（以实施政府计划的所有大型基础设施和其他重大项目）时，我们需要比预算规划更迅速地增加移民数量；但我们必须确保重点引进填补现有劳动力短缺所需技能的人员，这样他们不仅能增加加拿大的人口总数，还能提高生产力，并使顶线增长数字的提升速度快于入境人口的增长速度。
Original English >> It's one of the answers, but it is not a simple answer. We saw during the teens and the beginning of the 2020s a significant increase in immigration and movement into Canada of temporary foreign workers who were not necessarily as highly skilled or as productive or educated as we had seen in the past under our points based immigration system. That meant when we look at per capita GDP or per person income or output every year in the Canadian economy, the top line continued to grow. But the bottom line in that equation grew even faster. And so the income or output per person has stagnated over the last decade, particularly compared with the United States. And what that means is that as we look to return to growing our immigration numbers, perhaps higher than the numbers outlined in the recent federal budget, as we face increased Labour demands to implement all of the big infrastructure and other major projects that are planned by the government, we're going to need to increase our immigration numbers even more quickly than the budget laid out, but we're going to need to ensure that they focus on bringing in people with the skills that are necessary to fill the gaps in our existing workforce, so that they not only add to the number of people in Canada, but boost productivity and boost that top line growth number more quickly than the number of people who come in.
>> 我想就此补充一点并提问：我设想许多国家可能处于同一境遇，并且可能在争夺同一批技术移民。加拿大如何应对这种竞争？
Original English >> I'm going to just add on to that, but I want to ask, I imagine a number of countries are probably in the same boat and are probably competing for the same group of skilled immigrants. How does Canada compete with that?
>> 确实如此，因为许多国家现在都面临人口老龄化，甚至那些曾经真正反对移民的国家现在也在开放边境。因此我们正在与许多国家竞争以吸引顶尖人才。这对刚才提到的加拿大生产力意味着什么？我们知道必须注意的一点是提高人均 GDP。如果我们想吸引顶尖人才，因为顶尖人才会流向能够提供更好机会和更高生活水平的国家。因此为了能够与其他国家竞争，我们必须专注于生产力以及人均 GDP 的增长。通过这种方式，我们才能吸引顶尖人才。我们拥有优秀的教育体系，可以吸引国际学生、顶尖的国际学生。但在工人和高技能移民等顶尖人才方面，我们必须在住房和工作机会类型上进行改善，不仅是低技能、低学历的岗位——我们不需要低学历、低收入、低工资的职业来吸引顶尖人才。我们需要专注于扩大经济规模并使其更加成功所需的工作类型。
Original English >> That's true because many countries now are facing an ageing population, and even countries that they they were really they were opposed, you know, against immigration, that now they are opening the borders. So we are competing with many countries to attract top talent. And what does it mean for Canada's. Its productivity that Brad mentioned? We know one thing that we have to pay attention is to increase GDP per capita. If we want to attract top talent, because top talent move to countries that they can provide better opportunities, greater, you know, higher standards of living. So to be able to compete with other countries, we have to focus on our productivity, GDP, per capita growth. And through that, we are able to attract top talent. We have great education system. We can attract international students, top international students. But in terms of workers and top talent, highly skilled immigrants, we need we have to improve our you know, in terms of the housing, in terms of type of job opportunities, not only lower skilled, low educated, we don't need low educated or low, low wage earning, low wage occupations to attract top talent. We need to focus on the type of jobs we need to grow. Economy larger and make it more successful.
### 提振生育率的政策抓手 >> 我们如何才能回到提升出生率的问题上？在经济和社会层面，如何鼓励人们多生孩子？
Original English >> How can we get back to birth rates here? How can people be encouraged economically and socially to have more children?
>> 要做到这一点，我们必须找出障碍所在。例如正如我提到的，住房是影响因素之一，尤其是对年轻人而言。他们认为这是影响他们组建家庭决定的主要因素。而大规模移民实际上会对此产生影响，因为当我们在缺乏规划、未做好接纳移民并为现有居民和新移民提供充足住房的准备下接收大量移民时，就会让年轻人的处境更加艰难。此外，我们应该明确并意识到，尽管移民在抵达后平均而言更有可能生育孩子，但当他们长期留在加拿大时，他们会融入现有的人口中。因此从长期来看，移民和非移民之间的出生率将趋于相似，所有导致生育率低下的因素也会对移民产生影响。因此我们必须找准方向，例如提供良好的就业机会、降低生活成本，以及在托儿政策方面——使可负担的托儿服务更容易被父母获取，以解决部分挑战，至少对于那些希望生育孩子的人来说是这样。
Original English >> So to be able to do that, we have to identify the barriers. For example, as I mentioned, housing was one of the factors contributing to the especially for young people. They identified as a major contributing factor to their decision to form family. And high immigration actually is going to affect that because when we admit a large number of immigrants without planning, without being ready to welcome those immigrants and provide housing enough for existing population and also newcomers, we are going to make it more difficult for young individuals to have that. And also, we should identify and realize that even immigrants, although on average, they are more likely to have children after arrival. You know, when stay in Canada long term, they are merging to the existing population. So the birthrate is going to be long term is going to be similar between immigrants and non-immigrants and all those factors that contribute to low child childbirth is going to also affect immigrants. So we have to identify, for example, in terms of great job opportunities, making life more affordable, you know, and also in terms of child care policy when it comes to. Making affordable child care more accessible to parents to be able to address some of the challenges, at least to those that they want to have children.
### 退休保障金制度与法定退休年龄改革 >> 好的。我想谈谈我们可能需要重新审视的一些政策，其中之一就是老年保障金。Brett，人们一直在讨论改革老年保障金，以保持其公平性和可持续性。这在实际中会如何运作？
Original English >> All right. I want to talk a little bit about some policies that we might need to re-examine and look at. One of those is old age security. So, Brett, people talk about reforming old age security and have been for quite a while to keep it equitable and sustainable. How would that actually work?
>> 上届保守党政府哈珀内阁发起的改革之一，就是在十年的过渡期内将加拿大退休福利的领取年龄从65岁提高到67岁。这一政策在特鲁多执政期间被撤回了。我认为，在审视退休福利时，我们需要做的首要事情之一就是重新提高退休年龄。这对于使该系统的资金状况更好地匹配我们寿命更长、更健康的生活以及大幅延长的健康预期寿命至关重要。除了寿命更长之外，人们实际上更有可能在生命更晚阶段继续有效工作，从而为整个系统提供支持。
Original English >> Well, one of the reforms initiated by the last conservative government, the Harper administration, was raising the retirement age for retirement benefits in Canada over a ten year phase period from 65 to 67 years old. That was rolled back under the Trudeau administration. And I think one of the first things we need to do when we look at retirement benefits is return to raising that retirement age. That is critical to making the financing of the system better aligned with the longer, healthier lives that we are leading with a much longer health span. In addition to the life span. So there is greater possibility for people to work effectively longer into life and support the entire system as a result.
>> 我看到你在点头赞同提高年龄。对于正在工作的人来说，听到退休年龄提高可能不是一个受欢迎的意见，但是提高退休年龄何以成为在劳动力队伍中保留健康的高龄工人的合理方式？因为如我们所知，达到退休年龄的人依然留在劳动力市场中。
Original English >> Bruce, I saw you nodding your head to raising the age. Probably not a popular opinion for people who are working to hear that, you know, the the age goes up, but how could increasing that retirement age be a sound way of keeping a healthy, older workers in that labour force as well? Because as we know, people who are of retirement age are still in the labour force.
>> 是的。这可以在两个方面发挥作用。首先，我所做的所有研究都表明，应对人口结构挑战最有效的方式就是鼓励高龄工人更长时间留在劳动力市场中，并逐步将正常退休年龄从65岁提高到67岁。这是我们建议的用以缓解人口老龄化相关主要挑战的举措。另一面是针对高龄工人自身。鉴于他们更加健康并且拥有更长的退休生活，参与社会和工作在经济上甚至个人层面上对他们都是有益的，因为这有助于健康，还能促进更多社会活动。但政府和雇主需要注意的一点是，并非所有工人的情况都相同；不同群体、不同行业、不同职业的工作条件各异。因此对于某些特定职业的特定工人来说，在劳动力市场停留更长时间会更具挑战，因为他们的工作对体力要求更高。我们必须考虑这类人员可以通过培训、渐进式退休等方式获得的职业类型，并提供转向其他职业类型的选择。但我们可以从中受益，因为他们可以指导新加入的劳动力。因此让他们更长时间留在劳动力市场中有很多好处。最大的好处在于抵御人口老龄化的冲击。我的研究表明，移民有所帮助，但无法解决我们面临的所有问题。因此我们不仅要专注于增加人口数量，还要让现有的人口更好地为我们的经济做出贡献。
Original English >> Yes. It can work in two ways. First of all, all the research that I've done points to the most the most effective way to address demographic challenges is going to be encouraging older workers to stay in the labour market longer and gradually increasing the the normal retirement age from 65 to 67. This is something that we have recommended to be able to mitigate the main challenges related to ageing. Another one is for older workers. You know, given that they are healthier and they have longer retirement life, it's going to be financially and even personally, it's going to be beneficial for them to engage in the in the society and work because, you know, it has some health benefits. It also encourages more social activities. But one thing that the government, governments and employers need to be aware of, you know, not all workers, you know, the working conditions are different across different groups, you know, by industry, by occupations. So it's going to be more difficult for some specific workers in specific occupations to stay longer in the labour market because their job is physically more demanding. We have to think about the type of occupations that these individuals, they can have, you know, through training, through phase out retirement, providing some, you know, options to transition to other types of occupation. But we can benefit from that because there are, you know, they can mentor the, the new workforce. So there are many benefits to keeping them longer in the labour market. And the greatest benefit is through the impacts of ageing population. My research shows that immigration can help, but is not able to solve all the problems we have. So we shouldn't only focus on adding numbers, but making the existing population, you know, to contribute better to to our economy.
### 女性劳动参与率与普惠托儿政策 >> Brett，我想请你也谈谈这类支持措施。我们谈到了支持高龄工人所需的结构性条件。在加拿大以及联邦和各省政府层面，你认为他们在支持达到退休年龄但仍在工作的劳工方面可以做些什么？
Original English >> Brett, I'm going to get you to chime in there a little bit on sort of those supports as well. We talked about sort of those structures that are needed to support older workers. What what can you see in terms of Canada and the federal government, provincial governments? What what would you see them doing to support workers who are, you know, at retirement age but still in the labour force?
>> 嗯。我其实更想关注我们能做些什么来支持正处于黄金年龄的工人，在这一阶段他们能为加拿大的生产力和增长做出最大贡献。国际货币基金组织以及我在丰业银行参与领导的一些经济研究表明，如果我们在全国范围内将女性的劳动参与率提升至与男性相同的水平，加拿大经济活动的年增幅将在4%左右。我们在移民方面或高龄工人方面所能做的任何事情，都几乎无法为 GDP 带来如此巨大的增量。这意味着引入已经受过良好培训、适应加拿大经济并正在做我们所需工作的劳动力。这就是为什么我和其他人一直认为，在全国范围内扩大可负担托儿服务并对护理人员进行培训是一项增长政策。这是一项生产力政策。这对经济是一项积极政策，因为与我们几乎能做的任何其他事情相比，它更能提振经济产出和收入。我们在魁北克看到了这一点，副总理方慧兰在任期间在全国范围内复制魁北克的可负担托儿计划，正是试图做到这一点。我们需要贯彻执行，通过确保这些名额和配置人员到位，切实兑现该计划的承诺。
Original English >> Well. I'd actually like to look at what we can do to support workers who are in the prime age, where they can contribute the most to productivity and growth in Canada. The International Monetary Fund, and in some of the work I helped to lead when I was involved in economic research at Scotiabank, shows that if we were able to raise women's labour market participation to the same rates as men across the entire country, the bump to economic activity in Canada would be on the order of 4% per year. There is almost nothing we can do on the immigration side or with older workers. That is going to add that much to GDP. That is bringing workers in who are already well trained, well habituated to the Canadian economy, and doing the things that we need. That's why I and others have argued that the expansion of affordable child care across the country and the training of people in order to provide that care, is a growth policy. It's a productivity policy. It is a positive policy for the economy because it could boost economic output and incomes more than almost anything else we could do. We've seen that in Quebec, the replication of Quebec's affordable child care program across the country by Deputy Prime Minister Freeland when she was in office, was an attempt to do just that. We need to follow through and truly realize the promise of that program by ensuring those spots and the people to staff them are in place.
### 核心政策优先级与结语 >> 如果只能对政府提出一项最重要的优先建议，那会是什么？
Original English >> If there was one priority that, and if you had the ear of the government, what would it be.
>> 针对工作年龄人口吗？我认为是托儿服务的扩展和在全国范围内的真正落实，辅以养老照护支持，以确保适龄劳动人口能够充分发挥其潜力。最后是提高退休年龄。我们在世界各国看到，工作年龄人口、进入劳动力的年轻人群体与退休人员之间，围绕福利和机会的不平衡出现了巨大的紧张关系。在加拿大确保实现公平平衡的方法之一，就是逐步提高退休年龄，以匹配我们在加拿大拥有的更长寿命、更长健康预期寿命以及可能更长的工作生涯。
Original English >> On? The working age population? I think the child care extension and true realization across the country. Elder care to go along with it to ensure that working age people can work to their full potential. And then lastly, that bump up in the retirement age. We are seeing in countries around the world big tensions between working age populations, young people entering the labour force and retirees around imbalances in benefits and opportunity. And one of the ways to ensure we have an equitable balance in Canada is by gradually increasing that retirement age to match the longer lives, longer lifespans and potentially longer working lives that we have in Canada.
>> Brett House、Parisa Mahboubi，非常感谢你们抽出时间并分享真知灼见。
Original English >> Brett House, Parisa Mahboubi, thank you so much for your time and your insights on this one.
>> 感谢你的邀请。
Original English >> Thank you for having me.
>> 你认为政府在移民问题上做出了正确的决策吗？加拿大是否应该采取更多措施来提振出生率？请告诉我们。发送电子邮件至 Rundown@TVO.org，或者一如既往地，你可以在我们的 YouTube 页面上留言。在此之前，我们明天见。
Original English >> Do you think the government is making the right calls on immigration, and should Canada be doing more to boost the birth rate? Let us know. Send us an email to Rundown@TVO.org. Or as always, you can drop us a comment on our YouTube page. Until then, I will see you tomorrow.♪