--- author: All-In Podcast date: '2026-09-17' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJrntzMA4iQ speaker: All-In Podcast tags: - ai-infrastructure - semiconductor-capex - market-valuation - enterprise-productivity title: Brad Gerstner 深度复盘：AI 算力超级周期、半导体吞噬纳斯达克与真实营收兑现挑战 summary: Altimeter 创始人 Brad Gerstner 剖析了当前 AI 市场的核心驱动力。他指出当前市场由真实盈利驱动而非估值泡沫，半导体贡献了纳斯达克 70% 的回报。然而，未来市场能否持续走牛，取决于前三大 AI 实验室能否实现从千亿到更高规模的营收跨越，同时面临电力、监管与利率三大挑战。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: investment-assets area: finance-wealth project: [] people: - Brad Gerstner companies_orgs: - Altimeter Capital - Nvidia - OpenAI - Anthropic products_models: - Claude media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 嘉宾入场与全美儿童账户项目 **主持人**: 让我们欢迎全世界最喜爱的第五位好兄弟（Fifth Bestie），来自 **Altimeter** 独一无二的 **Brad Gerstner**！Brad 拥有令人难以置信的职业生涯，先后创办了五家公司。因此，他拥有与传统对冲基金经理截然不同的心态与视野。
Original English **Host**: Our favorite fifth bestie in the world, the one, the only Brad Gerstner from Altimeter. Brad has had an unbelievable career starting five companies. So, he's got a very different mentality than your sort of classic hedge fund guy.
**主持人**: 他是一位极其成功的人士，并且投入了巨额资金。
Original English **Host**: He's an amazingly successful guy and he's put up a tremendous amount of money.
**主持人**: 全美国的每一个孩子，所有 7000 万 18 岁以下的孩子，都理应拥有这样一个账户。如果不是 Brad Gerstner 以绝对坚韧不拔的毅力推动它，这根本不可能成为一项法律。
Original English **Host**: Every child in America, all 70 million kids under the age of 18 deserve to have one of these accounts. This would not be a law if Brad Gerstner did not pursue it with absolute dogged determination.
**主持人**: 这不仅仅是一个救济项目，这是一个赋能平台。这是我们国家历史上对直接慈善事业最大规模的一次解锁与释放。
Original English **Host**: This is not a program. This is a platform. It is the largest unlock of direct philanthropy in the history of the country.
**主持人**: 我认为对抗更多社会主义的解药，就是更彻底的资本主义。请大家热烈欢迎 Brad Gerstner！
Original English **Host**: I think the antidote to more socialism is more capitalism. Please welcome Brad Gerstner.
**Brad Gerstner**: 芜湖！哇，太棒了！太感谢大家了。也非常感谢大家昨天给予我的巨大支持与喜爱，特别是针对**特朗普账户（Trump Accounts / 儿童储蓄账户）**。昨天有很多人走到我面前交流，每个人都深刻理解了这对美国意味着什么。我们正处于一场关乎美国灵魂的战斗中。7000 万美国儿童将直接成为美国的资产所有者与股东。这就是我们击败资本匮乏与社会主义阴霾的方式——我们让每一个孩子都成为资本家。
Original English **Brad Gerstner**: Woo. Wow. Let's go. Let's go. Thank you guys. And thank you for so much love yesterday, especially on the Trump accounts. So many people came up. Everybody gets what this means for America. We're in a battle for the soul of America. 70 million kids are going to be made direct owners in America. That is how we beat the scourge of socialism. We make every child a capitalist.
### 心脏健康筛查与市场现状盘点 **Brad Gerstner**: 另外，我也要感谢昨天在场外参与由我们发起建立的**心脏病预防中心（Center for Heart Attack Prevention）**所提供的 **CAC 冠状动脉钙化扫描（CAC Scan）**的所有朋友。毫无疑问，根据昨天的筛查结果，我们现场就已经挽救了一些生命。这是你在医疗健康领域能做的投资回报率（ROI）最高的一件事。我交流过的每一位心脏病专家，都会为他们自己、他们的家人和朋友做这项检查。只需要 100 美元，耗时 15 分钟，赶紧去查一下。如果我们能把这项检查变成心脏领域的“乳腺钼靶筛查”，我们每年在这个国家就能拯救 5 万条生命，这相当于每年在美国终结一场乌克兰战争。所以，如果你还没做，一定要去做一次 CAC 扫描。 不过今天我们要谈的不是这两个登月计划（Moonshots）。今天我想回到我过去在播客上和这几位好兄弟经常做的事情：做一次**市场复盘与科技行业检查（Market Check & Tech Check）**，审视市场的现状。我们现在身处何方？我们正走向何处？为了让这个牛市继续有效运行，我们必须相信哪些核心前提？接下来会有一个快节奏的环节，大家准备好拍照和做笔记，这里准备了很多非常精彩的图表干货。
Original English **Brad Gerstner**: And also thank you to all the people yesterday who came up who took the CAC scan, the heart scan outside from the center for heart attack prevention which we started. There's no doubt based on these results we uh you know we're going to save some lives even yesterday. Okay. This is the highest ROI thing you can do in healthcare. Every cardiologist I talk to does this for themselves, their family, and their friends. It's a hundred bucks, 15 minutes. Get it done. If we turn this into the mammogram for the heart, we'll save 50,000 lives a year in this country. It's like ending a Ukraine war in America every year. So, go get your CAC scan done if you haven't. But today is not about those two moonshots. Today is kind of a throwback to what I used to do on the pod with these guys, which is a market check, a tech check, state of the market. Where are we? Where are we going? What do we have to believe to be true in order for the market to continue to work? We're going to do a bit of a speed round here. So, bear with me. Get your cameras out. Get your notes out. Some good some good chart candy in here for you guys.
### 盈利驱动的市场与非泡沫估值 **Brad Gerstner**: 今年美股市场上涨了 15%，自去年 1 月以来累计上涨了 39%，尽管市场充斥着对关税的担忧、对地缘政治的顾虑，以及对 **AI 监管**的焦虑。 看一下资产表现记分板：在我们的投资圈子里，很多人曾预言今年黄金会暴涨冲破天际，但实际上黄金走势平平；**比特币（Bitcoin）**下跌了 10%。但反观科技核心：**英伟达（Nvidia）**营收翻了 2 倍；**超大规模云厂商（Hyperscalers）**的资本支出（Capex）翻了 2 倍；**OpenAI** 与 **Anthropic** 的估值翻了 2 倍；**SpaceX** 在相当艰难的宏观背景下估值增长了 2.5 倍。 必须强调的是，这绝不是由**估值倍数扩张（Multiple Expansion）**驱动的行情，而是一场由**真实盈利增长（Earnings-driven）**推动的市场扩张。今年我们实际上看到了估值倍数的收缩。企业盈利增长了 26%——这很大程度上是由 **AI 基础设施**投资所拉动的，但纳斯达克和标普 500 指数的估值倍数实际上是在下降的。 看看英伟达，目前的交易价格仅对应明年完全纳税 GAAP 盈利的 14 倍市盈率。这根本不是 2000 年互联网泡沫时期的那种泡沫。纳斯达克指数、标普 500 指数、费城半导体指数（SOX）以及英伟达，目前的交易估值均远低于其历史平均估值倍数。
Original English **Brad Gerstner**: So markets up 15% this year, up 39% since January of last year, despite all the concerns about tariffs, despite all the concerns about geopolitics, despite all the concerns about AI regulation. The scoreboard, we have a lot of people in the bestie group who said gold was going to be off the charts this year. It's flat. Bitcoin's down 10%. But look, we have Nvidia revenue up 2x. Hyperscaler capex up 2x. OpenAI and Anthropic's valuation up 2x. SpaceX up two and a half x in a pretty nasty backdrop. This is not about multiple expansion. This is an earnings driven market expansion. We've seen multiple contraction this year. Earnings are up 26% of course driven a lot by AI infrastructure, but the multiple on the NASDAQ and the S&P is actually down. Look at Nvidia trading at 14 times next year's fully taxed gap earnings. This is no bubble like it was in 2000. NASDAQ, S&P, Sox, Nvidia, all trading well below their average multiples.
### 半导体吞噬纳斯达克与算力现金流 **Brad Gerstner**: 科技七巨头（Mag 7）目前的估值倍数基本与其历史均值持平，但并不是市场中的每个人都在赢。在底部，可选消费、传统软件、金融等大盘中的庞大板块几乎完全没有动静。这是一个被**科技历史上最大规模的资本支出与超级周期（Super Cycle）**所单独驱动的市场。 **半导体板块贡献了纳斯达克 70% 的投资回报率**。70% 的回报！这既是好事，也是隐患，我们稍后会深入探讨。 那么，究竟是谁在赚取真金白银？是**制造 Token 的基础设施厂商**在赚大钱，而**购买 Token 的下游客户**则因为基础设施市场的极度紧缺而在被动跟跑。我们看到很多庞大的上市公司展现出了风险投资（VC）级别的超额回报率。比如**戴尔（Dell）**在短短 18 个月内上涨了 5 倍乃至 9 倍。 我非常喜欢这张图表：蓝色线条代表超大规模云厂商的资本支出（Capex），橙色线条代表半导体公司的**自由现金流（Free Cash Flow）**。大家注意到什么了吗？云厂商的资本支出几乎是一对一、每一块钱都直接转化为了基础设施半导体公司的自由现金流！
Original English **Brad Gerstner**: Okay, MAG 7 basically in line with its average multiple, but not everybody is winning. Okay, at the bottom here, consumer discretionary, software, financials, huge sections of the market have barely moved, right? This is a market that is being driven by the largest capex buildout, the largest super cycle in the history of technology. Semiconductors are 70% of the NASDAQ's return. 70% of the return. That's both good and bad, and we'll get into that. So, who's making the money? The makers of the tokens are making the money and the buyers of the tokens are basically going along for the ride because of the tightness in the infrastructure market. We have massive public companies that look like venture capital returns. Dell up 5x up 9x in just 18 months. I love this chart. In blue you have the hyperscaler capex. In orange you have the free cash flow of the semiconductor companies. Do you notice anything? Their capex is almost dollar for dollar free cash flow to the infrastructure companies.
### AI 实验室的营收爆发与资本支出承接 **Brad Gerstner**: 那么，我们在今年年初处于什么节点？这是一个必须理解的重要分析框架。大家可能还记得去年 10 月我和 **Sam Altman** 以及 **Satya Nadella** 一起录制的那期播客。当时我问了 Sam 一个每个人心中都在想的根本问题：当你只有 130 亿美元的 GAAP 营收时，你怎么敢承诺投入上万亿美元的资本支出？我本以为这能帮市场厘清一些困惑，结果他直接在节目上让我把持有的股票卖掉。 但紧接着在 12 月初，我们迎来了 **Opus 4.5** 和 **Claude Code**。随后在 1 月，Anthropic 的年化营收达到了 20 亿美元，2 月飙升至 40 亿美元，3 月更是达到了 110 亿美元！大家注意到 3 月份发生了什么吗？当市场开始摸清 Anthropic 的真实营收体量时，“AI 商业化营收到底能不能兑现”这个核心疑问得到了一个惊叹号般的强力回答！AI 营收以极其庞大的规模爆发了，这也正是为什么我们在 4 月和 5 月迎来了历史性的狂暴行情。市场从底部强劲反弹，因为 Anthropic 惊人的月度营收点燃了整个行情的引信。 随后在 6 月和 7 月，市场出现了一定程度的盘整整合。为什么？因为 Anthropic 随后表示：“我们的年化运行营收（Run-rate Revenue）其实是 65 亿美元左右。”而市场此前的预期是 75 亿，因此华尔街不得不小幅下调了预期。同时，市场也开始对**开源模型（Open Source）**产生担忧：开源模型是否正在迅速赶超？Anthropic 能否继续保持这样惊人的创收速度？因此，从那时起市场整体转入了横盘震荡。 这种营收增速在整个资本主义历史上都是前所未见的。我们在这些营收数字上看到的是抛物线式的双重指数级增长曲线。根据 7 月份流出的所有市场数据，排名前三的顶级实验室——Anthropic、OpenAI 和 SpaceX（xAI）——合计的年化营收体量已经达到了大约 1000 亿美元。我认为到今年年底，这三家实验室的合计年化营收至少需要达到 **1800 亿美元**，也就是在现有基础上再增加 800 亿美元，才能维持目前整个 AI 投资逻辑的稳固不破。 这就是当今市场上最关键的单一核心数据点：Anthropic 和 OpenAI 的月度营收到底能达到 40 亿还是 80 亿美元？这几乎超出了很多人的认知范畴。对于我们这些长期从事风险投资的人来说，过去如果你能在 4 到 5 年内将一家软件公司的营收做到 10 亿美元，你就已经跻身全行业排名前 5% 的顶尖企业了。但现在，这就是全球市场正在定价的全新现实。 为什么这如此至关重要？请看这张幻灯片：如果你每年要推进 1.5 万亿美元的资本支出，就必须有人为此买单。**微软（Microsoft）**不会白白买单，他们建算力是为了出租；**谷歌（Google）**不会白白买单，他们建算力也是为了出租；**亚马逊（Amazon）**建算力同样是为了出租。那么，到底谁是租用算力的人？我们必须拥有足够庞大的**终端承接营收（Offtake Revenues）**来支付这些租金。如果今年年底以大约 2000 亿美元的年化营收收官，未来几年我们必须看到承接营收从 2000 亿跨越到 4500 亿，再到 8000 亿甚至 1 万亿美元，才能跟上步伐。图中蓝柱代表仅 Mag 5 巨头的预期资本支出，橙柱代表维持这一超级投资逻辑不破所必需的 GAAP 承接营收。否则，如此庞大的资本开支将无以为继。
Original English **Brad Gerstner**: Okay. Where were we at the start of the year? This is a really important framework to get your head around. You may remember a certain podcast I did with Sam Altman and Satya in October of last year. And I asked Sam a very basic question that was on everybody's mind. How can you commit to a trillion dollars in capex when you have $13 billion of GAAP revenue? I thought this would be a way to clear up some confusion in the market. Instead, he told me to sell my shares. But then in the beginning of December we have Opus 4.5 and Claude Code and then in January Anthropic's revenue was 2 billion and then in February it's 4 billion and in March it was 11 billion. Do you notice anything that happened there in March? People started figuring out what Anthropic's revenue was. We had an exclamation point answer to the question: will the AI revenue show up? It showed up in a massive way and that's why we got this historic run in April and May. We ripped off the bottom because the fuse was lit by Anthropic's monthly revenue. And then in June and July, we had some consolidation. Why? Because Anthropic came out and said, "Oh, our annual run rate revenue is 65." People thought it was 75. So they had to revise down their estimates a little bit. And we had some concerns about open source. Is open source catching up? You know, is Anthropic going to continue to be able to generate those revenues? And so, we've kind of moved sideways since then. It's hard to get your head around the fact that these revenues have never happened before in the history of capitalism, right? We are on parabolic double exponential curves around these revenues. So the collective run rate, let's just call it of the top three labs, Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX is about a hundred billion based upon all the rumors that are out there coming out of July. I think they need to collectively get to at least $180 billion by the end of the year, add another $80 billion across those three labs just to keep the AI trade intact. So this is the single most important data point in the market today, right? Is Anthropic's monthly revenue, is OpenAI's monthly revenue going to be 4 billion or 8 billion? It's almost hard to get your head around. Most of us who've been in venture capital for a long time, if you added a billion, if you got to a billion dollars in software revenue over like four or five years, you were in the top 5% of software companies. But this is what the world is now pricing in. So why is this so important? It's this slide. If you're going to build a trillion and a half dollars a year in capex, somebody has to pay for it, right? Microsoft's not paying for it. They're building it to rent it. Google's not paying for it. They're building it to rent it. Amazon's building it to rent it. Well, who is the person renting it? We have to have the offtake revenues in order to pay that rent. So if we exit this year around, you know, let's call it 200 billion of run rate revenue. That's below the the years there. I think you have to go from 200 to 450 to 800 or a trillion dollars just to keep up. The blue bar is the expected capex just from the MAG 5 and the orange bar is the offtake revenue, the GAAP offtake revenue that we need to see in order to keep this trade intact over the course of the next few years. Otherwise, we can't build this much capex.
### 算力扩张壁垒与万亿潜在市场（TAM） **Brad Gerstner**: 各大 AI 实验室正如同去年 10 月我和 Sam 讨论的那样，在激进地扩张算力。为什么？正如大家昨天听到的，我们正在进入**自递归迭代周期（Recursive Cycles）**，他们看到了市场对模型产品的惊人需求。今年（2026年）全美新增的算力总计约 19 吉瓦（GW），其中约 7 吉瓦被分配给了两家领先的头部实验室。 而根据 **SemiAnalysis** 分析师 **Dylan Patel** 的预测，行业计划在明年新增惊人的 **43 吉瓦**算力，其中约 14 吉瓦将流向头部实验室。请大家注意，明年计划新增的这 43 吉瓦算力，相当于目前全美国现有的全部累计算力总和！这是市场目前所预期的基准。 如果这无法兑现会怎样？顺便提一句，正如 **David Sacks** 昨天指出的那样，如果把这些数据加起来，到 2028 年，全美国超过一半的算力都将被两家顶尖实验室所控制。 那么，如此庞大的潜在市场空间（**TAM**）真的存在吗？如果我们审视**知识工作（Knowledge Work）**的总体 TAM，这是一个极其庞大的赛道：涵盖消费者端、广告、代码编写以及所有白领工作流，覆盖数以百万计的企业。我认为这是人类商业历史上最大的 TAM。我们其实只需要渗透这个庞大市场大约 **4% 的份额**（约 1.2 万亿美元），就足以完全覆盖并支付所有这些巨额的资本支出。因此，根本不需要怀疑 TAM 的天花板。 两年前 **黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）** 参加我们的播客时曾预言，**推理算力需求将增长 10 亿倍**。当时很多人嘲笑他，说这绝不可能。但随着**智能体时代（Age of Agents）**的到来，这正是我们正在亲历的现实！今年全网产生了惊人的指数级 Token 增长，预计将生成 **47 拍（Quadrillion，即4.7京）个 Token**。所以需求侧绝对没有任何问题。**Codex** 用户在过去 8 个月内增长了 40 倍；企业在知识工作 AI 上的支出中位数在过去 18 个月内增长了约 17 倍。无论是小微企业、中型企业、大型跨国集团，还是像我们 Altimeter 这样的投资机构，现在如果不采购部署 AI，业务根本无法运转。 从整体经济的**生产力红利（Productivity Dividend）**来看：在 2015 到 2025 年间，纳斯达克成分股的每股收益（EPS）年均增长约 10%，其中 6% 来自营收增长，约 38 个基点（bps）来自每年的利润率扩张。那么核心问题来了：AI 能否将这 38 个基点的利润率扩张提升至 100 个基点？答案显然是肯定的。与我交流的每家公司都在发生这种变革：**Uber** 表示业务将增长 20%，但员工人数将保持零增长；**Snowflake** 表示营收将增长 30%，但员工人数同样零增长。这就是正在发生的利润率大幅扩张。对这些企业而言，最大单一成本就是人力与工程师薪酬。这并不意味着公司会大规模裁员，而是它们不再需要以过去的激进速度去扩张招聘了。 此外，每个人的口袋里都将拥有个人消费级智能体（Consumer Agents）。大家可能还记得我之前和 Bill 设立的赌局：我们什么时候能直接用手机里的个人 Agent 完成酒店预订？随着 **Muse** 和 **Instinct** 等产品的推出，我们已经迈过了这个门槛。这本身又将是一个万亿美元级的赛道，并将持续吞噬海量的 Token 计算。
Original English **Brad Gerstner**: So, the labs are increasingly, you know, like the conversation I had with Sam last October, they're aggressively expanding compute. Why? All the things you heard yesterday, we're heading into recursive cycles. They're seeing, you know, incredible demand for the product. And so, they're building out compute. This year the total amount of compute added so 2026 about 19 gigawatt and about seven of those gigawatts went to the two leading labs. Next year this is SemiAnalysis so Dylan Patel forecast that the work that we're going to add 43 gigawatt and that about 14 gigawatt are going to go to the leading labs and we'll come back to this question of can we really stand up 43 gigawatts of compute next year. Notice that the amount that we're adding next year is as much as the total compute we have in the United States this year, the cumulative compute we have in the United States this year. So that's what the market is anticipating. What happens if that doesn't happen? And by the way, if you added those bars up, by 2028, to David Sacks's point yesterday, over half of the total compute in the country is controlled by two labs. So does the TAM exist? Does the TAM exist? Right? So if we look at the total TAM of knowledge work, right? That this is a massive massive category. You got consumer plus ads plus coding and all these white collar workflows, millions of enterprises. I would argue it's the largest TAM in the history of the world. You only have to get to about 4% of that TAM or 1.2 trillion in order to pay for the capex. So I don't think it's a TAM issue. Um, obviously Jensen was on our was on the pod and he he he talked two years ago that inference was going to 1 billionx and remember all the people saying he's full of there's no way this can 1 billionx. That's exactly what we've done in the age of agents, right? We've had this exponential token growth this year. 47 quadrillion tokens that are going to be produced. So it's not a question again of demand. Codex users have grown 40x in the last eight months and knowledge work at enterprises if you look at the median amount that enterprises are spending about 17x over the course of the last 18 months and I've talked to many people in the audience here small businesses medium businesses large businesses businesses like Altimeter we can't operate our business without buying AI so this is not overly surprising to me. And when we think about the productivity dividend to the economy. You know, if you look at 2015 to 2025, EPS growth was about 10%. That was 6% revenue plus about 38 bips of margin expansion every year out of the NASDAQ. So, here's the question. Can we turn the 38 bips to 100 bips of margin expansion because of AI? The answer is obviously yes. Every company I talk to, Uber says we're going to grow 20%, we're not going to grow headcount. Snowflake says we're going to grow 30%, we're not going to grow headcount. That's what's happening. That is margin expansion. The single largest cost input to every one of these companies are humans and engineers. It's not that they're going to fire everybody. They're just not going to hire them at the rate that they hired him before. And then of course, we're going to have consumer agents in everybody's pocket. You may remember this bet I had with Bill. You know, when are we going to be able to book a hotel using your consumer agent in your pocket? I think we've just gotten that with Muse and with Instinct. This could be another trillion dollar category, but it's definitely going to consume massive tokens.
### 三大核心挑战与投资航线指引 **Brad Gerstner**: 接下来谈谈我们面临的**三大风险与挑战**。第一是**政府监管**；第二是**电力与物理基础设施**；第三是**利率环境**的变化。 首先是监管层面的博弈拉锯战。很多人认为我在这件事上摇摆不定，但现实是：解决方案绝不会走极端。我们必须找到常识性、务实的监管方案，让我们身边的普通大众和家庭感到踏实放心。我们必须给选民和政策制定者充分的安全信心。正如 **Elon Musk** 昨天提出的极佳建议——建立行业同行评审机制（Peer Review）。我相信我们最终会达成共识，但立法的过程难免充满曲折与博弈。 历史上有过监管过度的惨痛教训。当公众陷入恐慌、激进游说团体开始强推议程时，美国历史上曾直接关停了 67 座核裂变反应堆，这无异于在能源竞赛中对中国单方面缴械，对国家发展造成了灾难性后果。我们本可以获得极其充沛的清洁能源，结果却不得不面对高排放能源，只因当年那群极端抵制核能的活动人士。我们绝对不能让这种悲剧在 AI 领域重演。 第二大挑战在于物理世界与能源的硬约束（Atoms and energy are hard）。回到我们能否在一年内新增 43 吉瓦算力的问题：目前全美累计算力总额还不到 40 吉瓦。要想在一年内翻倍新增 43 吉瓦，我们必须克服项目审批延误、地方阻力、电网并网排队延迟、熟练技工短缺，以及电力变压设备全线售罄的严峻现实。这是美国历史上规模最大的基建工程。我认为 Dylan 预测的明年落地 43 吉瓦过于激进，我们很难达到这个数字。根据我的判断，全美实际能建成的算力大约在 **25 吉瓦**左右；其中约一半（12-13 吉瓦）将分配给 Anthropic 和 OpenAI。 但这对于支撑营收增长已经足够了。大家要知道，Anthropic 今年实现 1000 亿至 1100 亿美元的年化营收，仅仅使用了 1.5 吉瓦的算力。如果它们明年能新增 4 到 5 吉瓦算力，绝对足以支撑其再增加 1000 亿美元的营收。因此，我们并不需要激进的吉瓦级过剩产能来满足明年的营收目标。 第三大挑战是利率。大家明天会听到更多消息，目前市场预测明天美联储**加息的概率已经超过 90%**。为什么这至关重要？因为现在建设这些数据中心使用了巨额的债务融资（Borrowed Money），资金的资本成本门槛（Hurdle Rate）正在大幅上升。正如**沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）**的名言：**“利率之于资产价格，犹如重力之于物理万物。”**如果你能在不承担任何股市权益风险的情况下稳赚 5.5% 到 6% 的无风险收益，股票资产的吸引力和估值自然会面临严峻挑战。 最后看这张总结幻灯片——这是我管理投资组合的**航线图（Flight Path）**与潜在情景分布： 纳斯达克今年已上涨约 15%。如果各大 AI 实验室的月度营收数据能向 80 亿美元靠拢，我认为市场将迎来真正的**“起飞行情”（Liftoff / Takeoff）**，并且我们将在今年见证重磅 AI 实验室的 IPO；但如果 10 年期美债收益率被推升至 5.5% 以上，权益市场将承受巨大重压；此外，若出现监管阻碍或 IPO 推迟，市场也可能出现回撤。 在 2023 到 2025 年间，投资人只需要做对一件事：笃定 AI 是科技史上最伟大的超级周期，并将筹码全部推入 AI 赛道，就能大获全胜。但**2026 年的逻辑已经彻底改变**——AI 已经成为人人皆知的共识，所有预期都已被完全定价。现在的核心是跟踪硬核事实与真实数据。保持敏锐与思维弹性，紧跟数据事实，切勿盲目上杠杆梭哈（Don't YOLO）。像某些加了 4 倍杠杆最后爆仓把钱全送给 Citadel 的对冲基金同行一样，在这个市场里高杠杆操作是极其危险的。 我们目前保持中等仓位配置（Medium Position），并保持充分的策略弹性。如果在接下来的几个月里看到 AI 实验室营收爆发且油价回落，我们会果断向桌面上追加筹码；反之，若数据不及预期，我们随时保留进一步降低仓位的权利。非常感谢大家！
Original English **Brad Gerstner**: Here are the three risks and challenges. And sorry I'm going so quick, but I want to keep it keep it moving. Regulation. We heard a lot about this yesterday. Power. And then what's going on with interest rates? So, you know, this is the regulation tug-of-war, right? And I've heard from a lot of people, they're like, you're on both sides of the issue. Here's the fact, okay, the answer is not going to be on one end or the other. We're going to have to have common sense, pragmatic solutions that get my mom, my sister, and the brother off the cliff, right? We need to give comfort and confidence to the people who elect our representatives that it's safe. And so, you heard Elon yesterday give a great suggestion around peer review. So, I'm confident that we're going to get there, but it's kind of messy the sausage making along the way. But we have a prior history of excess regulation. When people get scared, when activists start pushing an agenda, we shut down 67 fission reactors in this country. We unilaterally disarmed against China. It's been a disaster for the country. Right? All the clean energy we could have gotten. Instead, we've gotten non-clean emissions because we had a group of activists who were hellbent on shutting down nuclear. We can't allow this to occur to AI. So regulation's a threat. It's a risk. Atoms and energy are hard. So getting back to can we stand up 43 gigawatt of compute. Our total compute in the country is less than 40 gigawatt. Doing this in one year, we've got to overcome permitting and local opposition. You guys see all of that. Grid interconnection delays, skilled labor shortages, power equipment is sold out. It's the largest buildout in the history of the country. I would suggest Dylan's forecast to 43 gigawatt next year is too aggressive. I don't think we're going to get there. I think the total amount we're actually going to stand up is somewhere closer to 25 gigawatt. And I think of that 25 gigawatt, half of it will be for Anthropic and OpenAI. I think that's enough to generate the revenue. Remember Anthropic's revenue reportedly this year 100 billion 110 billion. If they do that they're doing it with a gigawatt and a half of compute. So if they add another four or five gigawatts of compute that's certainly enough to add another 100 billion in revenue. So I don't think we need more gigawatts to get to the revenue targets for next year. But this is my hunch that we're not going to get to the 43. And then of course we're going to hear more tomorrow. I think rate hikes are coming. I think it's now over 90% chance that we're going to have rate hikes tomorrow. Why does this matter? Because all of this now borrowed money, right? We're borrowing money in order to stand up these data centers. So the hurdle rate for that money is going up. And so that's not only a challenge for data centers, but remember, you know, as Warren Buffett says that, you know, interest rates are to stocks what gravity is to matter, right? Right? If you can earn 5.5 or 6% on your money without taking equity risk, then you know it's going to be a challenge for stocks. So, here's where I think we are and we're going to end on this slide and then we'll bring the guys out and chop it up a little bit. But this is the flight path. This is how I think about managing the portfolio, right? We're up about the NASDAQ's up about 15%. But as I sit here and think about the risk, do I want to be small, medium, or large? This is how I think about the fan of potential outcomes. If the monthly AI lab revenues are closer to that $8 billion number, I think it's takeoff. Okay. I think we are going to see an IPO this year. And so I'm paying very close attention to what in fact are those monthly revenue numbers. I think the trends are intact, but we will see. That's going to be the single most important thing as to whether or not between now and the end of the year we have liftoff. Second one is rates, the election, oil prices. Obviously, rates are following oil prices to a certain extent. So, what happens there? You know, if rates were to go to 5.5 on the 10-year, that's going to be a big burden on the equity market. Then finally, the regulation, the Anthropic IPO, we saw a trade down yesterday because people are concerned that maybe we're going to have a halt or postponement. That would obviously be a major issue. I don't think that's going to happen, but again, that would be a concern. So that's the fan of potential outcomes. From here we're up 15%. I think we could go higher through the balance of the year, or we could go lower. I'll leave you with this. The period of 2023 to 2025, you only had to get one thing right. That AI was going to be the biggest super cycle in the history of technology. And you needed to shove your chips into the AI trade. That's it. Right? If you were in the AI trade, you made money. That is not where we are in 2026. Everybody knows about AI. It's all priced now. It's about facts and circumstances. Stay mentally flexible. Follow the facts. Don't YOLO. Okay? Don't go 4x like our friend up north who gave all his money to Citadel, right? 4x levered in this market, you know, very dangerous. So, in my estimation, we're medium position. We're mentally flexible. If we see those revenues come in big for these next few months and we see oil prices retreat, we're going to put more chips on the table. If not, we'll reserve the right to go even smaller. With that, thank you all. Thanks for having me.