--- author: a16z date: '2026-10-22' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9XQMHhpypc speaker: a16z tags: - venture-capital - ai-agents - generational-shift - definite-optimism - frontier-tech title: A16Z 宣布成立 Frontier 基金：押注 AI 智能体与下一代创业浪潮 summary: A16Z 宣布将 ACC 加密基金扩展为 A16Z Frontier，旨在投资处于技术前沿的‘外行星’领域。文章探讨了 AI 智能体生态的爆发、代际认知差异及确定性乐观主义，强调在技术变革中押注优秀创业者的重要性。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: tech-trends area: tech-engineering project: [] people: - Ben Horowitz - Marc Andreessen - Chris Dixon companies_orgs: - a16z - acc - stripe - anthropic - hugging-face products_models: - chatgpt - muse - instinct - oculus - skydio media_books: - firefly - hitchhiker's-guide-to-the-galaxy status: evergreen --- ### 宣布拓展至 A16Z Frontier 我们今天宣布将 ACC 加密基金扩展为 A16Z Frontier。这是早期采用者所理解的“可能之事”之间最大的差距。现在，这种差距已经达到了我职业生涯中所见过的最大程度。
Original English We're announcing today that we're expanding the ACC crypto fund to A16Z frontier. This is the biggest delta between what the early adopters understand as possible. Now that gap is as wide as I've ever seen in my career.
**>>**: 相比赛道，相比产品，我们更投资于创业者，而许多最有趣的创业者都处于外行星。从现在起，初创公司的创建将会迎来爆发式增长。
Original English >> More than categories, more than products, we invest in entrepreneurs and so many of the most interesting entrepreneurs are outer planet. Startup formation is going to skyrocket from here.
**>>**: 顺便说一句，现在已经开始了。我们过去常常问一个问题：这个想法是不是太有野心了？现在我们更有可能会问：这个想法够不够有野心？因为现在能够实现的事情是如此令人惊叹。
Original English >> By the way, it already is. We used to ask the question, is this idea too ambitious? We're much more likely to ask is this ambitious enough because what's possible is so spectacular.
**>>**: 要是我在 1994 年在网景时能拥有宇航员，天啊，本，你和我在网景能做出什么样的事情？
Original English >> Had I had astronaut at Netscape in 1994 like oh my god Ben like what would you and I have been able to do at Netscape?
**>>**: 我们大概能把整个该死的互联网都建出来。
Original English >> We would have built the whole damn internet.
**>>**: 如果你今天 18 岁，你会怎么考虑自己可能要［音乐］学习什么？借用马克的话，但我觉得有一件事必须要做，那就是学习。
Original English >> You were 18 today how would you think about what you might [music] study stealing marks line but I think there's one thing to do which is study.
**>>**: 克里斯，我们今天有一个重大宣布。
Original English >> Chris we have a big announcement today.
**>>**: 呃，我们正在扩大投资范围。呃，就由你来宣布吧。
Original English >> Uh we're expanding the mandate. Uh I'll let you do the honors.
**>>**: 好的。那么，是的，我们今天宣布将 ACC 加密基金扩展为 A16Z Frontier。呃，背后的想法，我可以说有几个促成的原因。呃，一个是，大家知道，加密技术在某些领域确实发展得很好。稳定币已经成为科技领域的一种常态化组成部分，像 Stripe 这样的公司都在使用，而且可以说现在几乎每家金融科技公司都将其视为自己工具箱的一部分。 华尔街机构也正借助代币化股票和其他类别的资产大举进入加密领域。这是一个正在增长、快速增长的门类。但结果是，界限在某种程度上变得模糊了，大家知道，我们发现自己会问：Stripe 是一家加密公司吗？或者许多这类公司，它们正处于我们所说的金融科技、华尔街与加密技术的交汇点上。 所以它真的已经变成了一种——大家知道，几年前它某种程度上还是一个自成一体的世界，有自己的公司和自己的投资人，如今界限已经模糊，它变得更像是科技领域的一部分。这是第一点。 然后第二点——我可以让马克和本对这一点谈得更多一些。我觉得我们在公司内部有一种感觉，那就是其他各类团队在各自的核心领域里有非常多有趣的机会，以至于我们——我搭档马丁所称的“外行星”，这个隐喻我想是来自电视剧《萤火虫》（Firefly）。它的概念是，内行星是那些更核心的行星，此外还有这些更古怪的外行星。外行星投资从历史上看我们其实两种类型的投资都做过很多。我觉得大家的感觉是，因为他们在各自核心领域忙于那么多有趣的机会，而且做得很出色，所以存在一个机会，或者说在某些覆盖面上可能存在一定的空白。 然后我认为，就我个人而言，大家知道，我认为自己和自己的背景，我觉得 Frontier 是我感到舒适的领域。大家知道，我是 2013 年加入这家公司的，带着那种任务授权进来，我和马克与本谈过，我说，嘿，我想做这些疯狂的事情，他们说那太好了。这在当时引出了一些投资主题，它们全都可以称作某种次级效应。比如大家知道智能手机显然始于 2007 年，到 2013 年已经走向主流，当时出现了所有这些一级效应，比如在上面构建应用程序，所以公司投资了 Instagram，那是构建在智能手机上的不可思议的产品。但次级效应在于你拥有了智能手机的零部件。传感器和芯片变得越来越好，也许人们可以把它们以不同的方式重新利用。 所以这就引出了——我记得马克是第一个涉足无人机的人，并把我带进了这个领域。但它背后的逻辑，除了它们很酷之外，还在于既然有了由所有这些优秀零部件组成的供应链，创业者就可以将它们重新组合并构建东西——比如我们投资了 Oculus，它实际上就是某种重构后的智能手机。Skydio 是我们当年的投资项目之一，刚开始时也是某种重构后的智能手机，现在它变得先进得多了。 加密技术在当时对我而言，某种程度上是开源软件运动演进为服务之后的一种下游效应，也是社交媒体的一种结果，在没有主流接纳的情况下你可以形成这些社区，并围绕这些区块链聚集起来。 因此对我个人而言，我只想说这算是我长期兴趣领域的延续，而且我认为公司在这些前沿领域也有过许多其他投资。所以我们觉得，这与我们长期以来一直在做的事情是高度一致的。
Original English >> Yeah. So, uh, yeah, we're announcing today that we're expanding the ACC crypto fund to A16Z Frontier. Um, the, um, the idea is, I say a couple of kind of motivations behind this. Um, one is, you know, crypto, um, has in some areas worked really well. Um, stable coins have become kind of a normal part of the tech landscape used by companies like Stripe and sort of almost, you know, every fintech company now kind of consider considers it part of their toolbox. um Wall Street firms are moving heavily into crypto uh with tokenized stocks and other kinds of assets. It's a growing fast growing category. Um but as a result, the lines have kind of blurred um which you know we find ourselves asking is Stripe a crypto company? Is you know somebody uh many of these companies where they're sort of sitting at the in the intersection of let's call it fintech and Wall Street and crypto. Um, and so it's really become kind of, you know, whereas, you know, years ago it was sort of its own world with its own companies and its own investors, it's the lines have blurred and it's become kind of more part of the um tech landscape. So that's number one. And then number two, and I I can let Mark and Ben talk about this more. I think we felt that at the firm there's a feeling that the um other kind of groups are are um have so many interesting opportunities in their core areas uh that uh what we kind of my my partner Martin calls outer planets, meaning the sort of the metaphor I think comes from Firefly, the TV show. It's the idea the inner planets are kind of the kind of the more core planets and there's kind of these wackier outer planets. Um that uh outer planets which which historically we've done a lot of kind of both types of investing. Um I think the feeling was um that because they're so busy with so many interesting opportunities and doing an amazing job with that um that there was an opportunity to kind of uh there's maybe a gap so say in in some of the coverage that um there and then I think just I'll just speak personally um you know I kind of see myself and my background I see Frontier as an area I'm comfortable with. this sort you know I joined the firm in 2013 and um we you know came in and with that kind of mandate I talked to Mark and Ben and I said hey I want to do this crazy stuff and they they were like great um and so you know that led to a couple of themes at the time and they're all kind of what I would call kind of second order effects like you know you had smartphones obviously started in 2007 and by 2013 had gotten mainstream and there were all these kind of first order effects like building apps on top so like the firm was an investor in Instagram and you know, incredible uh product built on smartphone. But a second order effect was that you had the components of smartphones. You had, you know, sensors and chips getting better and better and maybe people could repurpose those in different ways. And so that led to I think Mark was the one who's first into drones as I recall and got me into them. But the kind of the thesis behind it beyond just they're cool is is that now that you have this supply chain of um you know all these great parts that entrepreneurs can kind of recombine them and build you know we let we invested in Oculus as an example and that was really kind of a reconfigured smartphone. Um Skyio that was one of our investments from back then that was you know at the beginning was kind of a reconfigured smartphone. It's gotten much more advanced now. uh crypto I think at the time was kind of a downstream effect to me of sort of the open source software movement morphing into services and also kind of a result of social media where you could have these communities form without mainstream acceptance and build build uh you know and kind of coales around these these blockchains. Um so for me personally I'll just say this is sort of I feel you know kind of a continuation of long area of interest and I think the firm has you know there's many other investments the firm has had in these kinds of frontier areas. Um, so we we felt I think it's kind of consistent with things we've been doing for a long time.
### 投资“外行星”与早期历程 **>>**: 呃，本、马克，我们来听听你们的看法。我知道这是一次联合努力，也是你们非常兴奋的事情，感觉填补了、填补了空白，或者真正扩大了公司的投资范围。本，你何不谈谈你的看法？
Original English >> Uh, Ben Mark, let's hear from you. I know this was a joint uh effort and something you guys were very excited about and felt like filled a filled a gap or really expanded the the mandate of the firm. Ben, why don't you add your take?
**>>**: 好的。你看，我认为存在一些真正新颖的领域。也就是说，它着眼于技术上的可能性以及世界上存在的问题，而他们恰好是第一批涉足其中的人。它最终可能会成为一个全新类别，可能会成为一家成功的公司，也可能会失败。但是，这类事物是确实存在的。在历史上或者过去，我们通常的做法是，起初克里斯会亲自考察这些新领域。然后随着我们明确了新的领域，我们会在那个领域背后设立一个垂直条线。 我们在垂直化战略中发现——这一战略本身运作得非常好——但仍然会有新的事物落在这些垂直条线之外，而将其转变成一项业务实践的过程稍微有些模糊。并不是说我们没做过，但确实有点不够明确。因此通过克里斯做这件事，我们就会具备向那些身处外行星的最有趣的创始人投资的机制；如果进展顺利，也许未来某一时刻它会演变成一整只基金，或者 Frontiers 本身就演变成那种形态，因为它变得如此有趣，这也是有可能的。 所以我认为，这对我们来说非常令人兴奋，因为它在某种程度上填补了架构中的一个空白，而且在一天结束时，相比赛道，相比产品，我们更投资于创业者，而很多最有趣的创业者都处于外行星。因此这为我们提供了一条切实通向他们的途径。
Original English >> Yeah. So, look, I think that there's areas um that are really novel. So, it's taking it it's looking at, you know, what's possible technologically and problems in the world and they're just the first ones in it. And it may end up being a category. It may end up being a successful company. It may, you know, blow up. Um, but you know, there's a class of these things. And you know what we've done typically or or historically is was first like Chris would just look at these new areas himself. Um and then uh kind of as we uh identified new areas, we'd create a a vertical behind that area. Uh and what we found with our vertical strategy which has worked very well is that you know there's still new things that fall outside of the verticals and the process of turning that into uh a practice um is a little bit undefined. Not that we haven't done it but it's a little bit undefined. And so by Chris doing this, we kind of will have the motion to invest in the very most interesting founders who are outer planets and then you know if that works you know maybe that becomes a whole fund at some point uh or or maybe frontiers turns into that thing because it gets so interesting like that could be as well. And so I think that you know it's very exciting for us because it kind of uh fills a hole in the architecture and then also you know we really at the end of the day more than categories more than products we invest in entrepreneurs and so many of the most interesting entrepreneurs are outer planet. So this gives us a a real way to get to that.
**>>**: 在我看来，这似乎是我们上次非公开会议上所讨论内容的延续，当时触动了我，因为要知道，尽管公司一直以来都雄心勃勃，进入得那么早，下了那么大的赌注，但在那次会议上的核心焦点依然是我们如何下更大的赌注，或者说我们唯一的遗憾就是没有更用力、更早、更坚决地投入。克里斯，你是一个在某些新兴赛道上下过赌注的人，但这感觉正是那一信息的延续。我们接下来的大部分时间会讨论未来，不过趁着我们还在聊历史，我必须问一个关于历史的问题：据我了解，克里斯是除本、马克之外，公司任职时间最长、连续任职的合伙人，在 2013 年加入。我很好奇，本、马克，当你们认识克里斯时，你们在他身上看到了什么，让你们明确意识到“哦，我们必须让他加入 A16Z”？你们当时是否预见到了他后来会拥有的这种职业生涯？本，我请你先开始。
Original English >> And to me this seems like a you know continuation of what we were talking about at the at the last offsite which is which struck me because you know as uh as ambitious as the firm has been as early as the firm has been as as big of the bets that the firm has made. You know the big focus of the offsite was how do we bet even bigger or the the the only regrets we have are not even going even harder even earlier e even bigger. and and Chris, you're someone who, you know, has made bets in some of these emerging categories, but uh it just feels like a continuation of of that of that message. We're going to spend most of the time in the future, but while we're talking about history, I have to to ask one historical question, which is, you know, Chris, I believe, is the longest standing consecutive uh partner at the firm, you know, uh besides Benark having joined in 2013. Uh, I'm curious, Benmark, when you uh, you know, met Chris, what did you see in him that made it clear that, oh, we have to have him at at Acing Z? And did you, uh, anticipate the type of, uh, career he would go on to going to have? Ben, I'll ask you to start.
**>>**: 你看，我认为最初我们只是知道
Original English >> Look, I I I think originally, um, we just knew
### 看似糟糕的好想法与加密团队的深度 克里斯是个非常聪明的人，我们真的很喜欢他博客里的想法。我的意思是，事情归根结底确实就是这样。他文笔非常好，想法非常新颖，而我们当时也一直在物色能做到这些的聪明人。再者，我们喜欢他的另一点在于他有真正的创业经验。所以他懂得那种创业历程是怎样的感受，而在早期，这对我们按照自己想要的方式建立公司文化来说非常非常重要。随着时间推移，他在我们公司提出的投资想法大概是最具原创性的，因此我们借鉴了这些想法，并在各个领域加以推广。他早期的观点之一就是：我们真正寻找的不是看起来像好想法的好想法，而是看起来像糟糕想法的好想法。因为……一个看似糟糕的想法，但创业者掌握着某种秘密，实际上让它变成了一个好想法。这一分析框架对我们极有帮助，让我们能够理解什么是真正独特且具备巨大上行空间的，而什么又是所有利润都会在竞争中消耗殆尽的。[清嗓子] 他确实提出过不少这类绝佳的想法。所以，与他共事如今已经远远超过十年了，这段合作经历非常棒。
Original English Chris as a very smart guy and we really liked his ideas from his blog. I mean, like that that that's really what it came down to. He was a really good writer. um his ideas were very original and you know we we were looking for like somebody smart who could do that. And then the other thing we liked about him is he had real experience as an entrepreneur. So he knew kind of like what that journey felt like uh which you know was very very important to us in the early days to to set the culture of the firm the way we wanted it. um you know over time he's had probably the most original investment ideas that we've had in the firm and so and we've kind of copied those and uh multiplied them across. So you know one of his early things was look we're not really looking for good ideas that look like good ideas. We're looking for good ideas that look like bad ideas. Um because and then a bad idea but where an entrepreneur has a secret that actually makes it a good idea. Uh and that that that framework was extremely useful for us in kind of understanding like what was going to be truly unique and have massive upside versus something that was going to get where all the profits were going to get competed away. Um, [clears throat] and so, you know, and he's he's had quite a few uh excellent ideas like that. So, you know, it's it's been great working with him over now like way more than a decade.
**>>**: 是的。也许我还可以补充一点，不仅是克里斯本人如此出众，克里斯的团队也是如此。我觉得大家可能不太理解、或者从外部很难看清的一点是，加密领域在很多方面都显得非常性感，具有这类吸睛的元素，而且属于某种文化现象级的时刻，但在加密的核心，它是一门技术，是一门极其深厚且非常复杂的技术。你必须具备极其深厚的技术专长，再结合非常出色的商业判断力和敏锐的市场洞察力，才能在加密领域投资成功，而我们做到了这一点。顺便提一句，这包括克里斯团队中切实拥有的数学教授、密码学家，以及对博弈论等理论极其精通的人士，还有非常深厚的软件理念。所以，让我感到非常兴奋的事情之一，就是除了克里斯之外，他的同事、团队成员以及他建立的这支团队，如今能够投身于更广泛的课题。
Original English **>>**: Yep. Maybe I could add um also it's not just Chris as special as he is, it's also Chris's team. Um and um the the thing that I think people may not appreciate maybe [snorts] hard to see from the outside is just you know crypto has this you know crypto's like been so sexy in so many ways and it's been so you know it has this sort of flashy elements and you know it's a cultural you know kind of phenomena kind of moments but at the core of crypto it's it's a it's a technology it's a very deep technology and it's very complex technology um and you need to have like really deep technical expertise you know kind of coupled with like really good business judgment and really good market judgment in order to successfully invest in crypto which which which we which we've done. Um, including, by the way, including like, you know, literally Chris Steam has had like, you know, math professors and, you know, cryptographers and like people who are, you know, very very deep into the theory, you know, game theory, uh, you know, things like that. Um, you know, very deep software concepts. Um, and so it's it's one of the things I'm really excited about is in addition to Chris, his his colleagues and team members and the team that he's built, uh, now being able to work on a work on a broader set of topics.
**>>**: 是的。关于这一点，我是说，非常感谢。但我也觉得，是的，团队，我认为这支团队太棒了。除了技术层面，我还想提另外一点，多年来我们在政策方面进行了非常深入的投入。
Original English **>>**: Yeah. And to that point, I mean, so so thank you. But I think that also the Yeah, the team I think the team's amazing. And I would also mention one other thing besides the technical side um we've invested very deeply over the years in policy.
**>>**: 是的。
Original English **>>**: Yeah.
**>>**: 还有监管方面。我相信很多领域，你看自动驾驶汽车、无人机，连人工智能本身现在也正在变成一个政治议题。我认为越来越多这些尖端技术都会涉及某种政策维度，而我们相信，他们在加密历程的严峻考验中磨练出的这种专业知识，将对许多其他创业者大有裨益。
Original English **>>**: And regulatory and I and I believe that a lot you know if you just self-driving cars, drones, AI itself is now becoming a political issue. Um I think more and more of these cutting edge technologies will have kind of a policy angle and and we believe that that that expertise that they've built kind of in the crucible of of the kind of crypto journey um will be uh useful for many other entrepreneurs.
### J.P. 摩根与公司文化 **>>**: 是的，是的，我同意。那么关于这一点，我们就问最后一个历史相关的问题。你看，你不仅开创了其中的一些投资，还开创了公司运作的一些方式，比如政策部门。当你2013年加入时，你能想象到公司会以这种方式发展壮大吗？当时你对未来的走向有什么看法？
Original English **>>**: Yeah. Yeah. I agree. Well, on that end, no, we'll do one last historical question. Uh, you know, you pioneered not just some of the investments, but also some of the ways in which the firm works, I the policy arm and when you joined in 2013, you know, could you have imagined that the firm would have grown in this way? What was what were your thoughts about where things were going?
**>>**: 嗯，我一直都知道马克——我是说，马克有一幅，你的办公室墙上挂着一张很大的 J.P. 摩根海报。[笑声]
Original English **>>**: Well, I always knew Mark I mean Mark has a you have a big uh poster of JP Morgan on your wall in your office. [laughter]
**>>**: 没错。
Original English **>>**: Yes.
**>>**: 所以马克和本可绝不缺乏动力和雄心。
Original English **>>**: And so these Mark and Ben do not lack for uh for you know drive and ambition.
**>>**: 那是一张著名的照片。非常、非常著名的一张照片。他非常讨厌——J.P. 摩根。
Original English **>>**: It's a famous photograph. It's a very it's a very famous photograph. It was it was he hated JP Morgan.
**>>**: 那是灵感，灵感。
Original English **>>**: It's inspiration inspiration
**>>**: 灵感。对于没见过这张照片的人，可以在 Google 上查一下，非常有名的一张。J.P. 摩根极度讨厌拍照，因为他有这么一种病症，反正就是鼻子方面的疾病。总之，他极其讨厌被人拍照。不妨这么说，那是抗生素出现之前的年代。所以他大多数时候都很暴躁，很不情愿被拍照。但这又是必需的，他们需要一张他的正式肖像照，所以最后真的把他按着坐了下来。那位摄影师预见到了整套场景，所以在打光上，让他坐在黑暗中，完全对着镜头投来死亡凝视，而在照片里看起来他就像手里握着一把切肉刀，其实那是椅子的边缘在特定光线下的效果，非常明显是摄影师故意这么设计的。
Original English **>>**: inspiration. For people who haven't seen the photograph, you can Google it's a very famous one is JP Morgan hated to have his picture taken for this he had this this condition. He had this anyway he has this nose related issue. Anyway, so he hated having his photo taken. Uh this was pre- antibiotics, let's put it that way. Um and so he he was grouchy most of the time and so he has photo taken. So that but he they needed a formal portrait of him and so he finally literally you put him and set him down and the the the photographer like saw the whole thing coming and so it it's lit in a way where he's sitting in darkness um just absolutely giving the camera the stare of death and he's holding it looks in the photograph like he's holding a carving and and and what it is is the edge of the chair lit in a very specific way and it's like very clear the photographer like intentionally did that.
**>>**: 是的。那就是挂在我办公室门内侧的照片，挂了……
Original English **>>**: Yeah. So that's the photograph that was inside my office door for
**>>**: 你看起来非常非常吓人。非常。
Original English **>>**: You looked very very scary. very
**>>**: 没错，正是如此，正是如此。
Original English **>>**: Yes. Exactly. Exactly.
**>>**: 另一件，我们从他身上汲取了许多灵感。
Original English **>>**: The other we took a lot of inspiration from him.
**>>**: 还有另外一件事，实际上写在我们公司的文化手册里，也是出自他的一句话：“我们只做一流的业务，而且只以一流的方式去做”。这是一种很酷的说法，但他当时说这句话时正在受审。他们当时指控他，或者说他在法庭上，被指控做了一些不轨之事，而他说：“不，我们只做一流的业务，而且只以一流的方式去做。”马克和我非常喜欢这种态度：你休想来定义我是谁，我知道我是谁，我会让你知道我是谁。我认为这种东西在风险投资中非常重要，就是要坚持原则，让别人知道你的立场并能够信任你，诸如此类。所以我们从他那里汲取了很多。
Original English **>>**: Uh but one of the other things that that that we have in the firm that's actually in the culture document from him is we do first class business and then only in a first class way, which is, you know, it's like a cool phrasing of it, but that that when he said it, he was on trial. Um and they were kind of accusing or he was in court. They were accusing him of kind of nefarious things and he was like, "No, we only do first class business and men only in a first class way." Which, you know, Mark and I really loved that attitude about like you're you're definitely not going to tell me who I am. I know who I am and I'm going to let you know who I am. And that kind of thing I I think is really important in venture capital to like be principled and people know where you're coming from and be able to trust you and that kind of thing. So, so we got a lot from him.
**>>**: 是的。所以是 J.P. 摩根。
Original English **>>**: Yeah. So, JP Morgan.
**>>**: 是的。所以，我从来没有——我想说两点：看，像任何风险投资一样，经历过起起伏伏，你永远无法……我难道能预见一切吗？我认为事情总体上进展得非常顺利，显然一路上我不可能全都知道，但我显然知道马克和本野心极大。在我的经历中，有意思的是，有时我会提出某个想法，比如某些我们想去做的疯狂事情，别人会说马克和本会怎么想——可在我经历中，他们从来没有哪怕一次反驳过，如果有任何反应的话，永远是：你们能翻倍吗？能加大投入吗？能更进取一些吗？所以，这里是一个极具创业精神的地方，我认为多年来这也得到了体现，比如有多少……眼下就是一个很好的例子：我们去适应，看看世界上正在发生什么，调整各项事务，我们经历了一整套公司的重组，引入新想法。只要你能够给出合理的论证，任何事情都可以去尝试。所以，这也是为什么我一直喜欢在这里工作。这是一种非常具有创业精神的文化。我认为本所说的公司文化也非常重要。这也是最初吸引我的原因。在这之前我曾是风险投资的客户并体验过这种产品，我意识到完全可以有更好的产品。[哼笑] 但这一点，我认为在这个公司我认识的每一个人，确实是每一个人，都会评论起这种文化以及它是多么重要，他们如何享受在这里工作，并感觉自己正在做出人生中最好的一些成绩。所以……
Original English **>>**: Yeah. And so, I mean I have never I mean I think a couple things I'll say is like I mean look like any venture there were ups and downs and you never you know I could I have predicted everything. I think things generally went really well and you know I didn't obviously know that all all along the way but um obviously know that Mark and Ben are incredibly ambitious. I've never I it's funny sometimes I'll have some idea and like some crazy thing we want to do and people like what are Mark inventing like I've never in my not once have they ever if anything have they ever pushed back if anything it's always can you double it can you double down can you get more aggressive um so just you know and then just it's a very entrepreneurial place and I think this has shown over the years of like how many this this is a good example right here um that you know when we you know we sort of adapt um see what's happening in the world change things around we went through a whole kind of restructuring of the of the firm. Um, uh, you know, bring in new ideas. Sort of anything's anything's fair game as long as you can kind of defend it. Um, and so, you know, that I that's also why I've enjoyed working here. It's a very entrepreneurial culture. I think I think also what Ben said is very important, the culture of the firm. Um, that's why I was initially kind of attracted to it. Having been a customer of venture capital before that and experienced the product, I understood that there could be a better product. Um [snorts] u but that and that that's I think everyone literally everyone uh that I know at this firm like comments on the culture and how important that is um and how they you know enjoy working here and and feel like they're doing some of the best work of their life. So
**>>**: 嗯，所以我认为这些都非常……显然你必须做好投资等等，但我认为这一切真正始于人与文化。
Original English **>>**: um so I think that's all like a very you know there's obviously have to make good investments and this and that but I think it all really starts with the people and the culture.
**>>**: 有意思的是你提到了……这与文化有关。有意思的是你提到了起起伏伏，因为你……
Original English **>>**: Well it's funny that you mentioned um it's related to the culture. It's funny you mentioned ups and downs because you
### 创业公司的内外视角与前沿时机 你知道，从外面看进去，感觉全都是一路向上，而且——
Original English know from the outside looking in it feels like it's all all all ups and
**>>**: 所有创业公司都是这样，就比如你知道，成功的创业公司从外面看总是显得很棒，但作为——我想我们所有人作为待过……
Original English **>>**: that's how all startups are is like you know like the successful startups always look you know look great from the outside as someone who's I think we can all comment as people who have been
**>>**: 在创业公司内部的人，基本上我没见过哪家创业公司在某个阶段或者多个阶段不是一场混乱秀的。
Original English **>>**: in inside of startups basically I don't know of a startup that wasn't a show at some point or at multiple points
**>>**: 这也说明了一种文化，我听你们三位都说过，比如你知道，“绝不抱怨，绝不解释”，还有“快乐战士”等等，所以是的，这正好是一个明证。
Original English **>>**: it also speaks to the culture I've heard from all three of you guys you know things like you know never complain never explain you know happy warrior um and so yeah it's just a testament there
**>>**: 咱们去往前沿吧，去往未来。有时候风投界有这么一句话，你知道，太早和太晚或者什么的差不多一样糟糕。你们经常很早。你们大多数时候都是对的，或者以非常重大的方式看对了，但有时你们也太早了。我很好奇，在如今我们这个时代，你们是怎么看待技术风险，或者太早这个概念的。
Original English **>>**: let's uh let's let's go to the frontier, let's go to the future. So, sometime there's this phrase in venture, you know, being too early is as bad as being uh, you know, too late or something. Um, you've been early a lot. You've been, you know, mostly right or or right in very big ways, but you've also, you know, been too early at times. I'm curious how you think about technical risk or or the idea of being too early in in our era now.
**>>**: 是的。我的意思是，我们经常讨论这个。我想我们——我想我可以代表马克和本，他们也可以补充，但我们相信，基本上我们见过的每一个涉及技术的好想法，最终都成功了，或者我们相信它最终会成功。[笑声] 好的，如果它现在还没成功的话——这里有一个重要的限定条件，必须是好想法。坏想法确实存在，但令人赞叹的是，尤其是经历过互联网时代之后，有那么多事情——几乎所有最终成功的事情，都有一个没有成功的先驱，可能比它早了10年。所以很多时候，我认为在技术领域最难的事情就是预测这些事情发生的时机。这太复杂了，对吧？有技术因素、文化因素、商业环境因素、政治环境因素。有太多的因素参与其中，并且必须让它们全部配合到位。所以，我想说，在整个公司层面，具体在Frontier Fund（前沿基金），我们宁愿偏向于过早。我们明白有时候事情会太早，而且我们对这种前沿品类风险是接受的。有些品类可能做不成。你看，甚至是那些算得上成功的也并没有完全做成。比如，我们卖掉了Oculus，被收购了，但现实是，现在已经是13年之后了。我仍然非常坚信VR。我们很乐意做VR方面的投资，但13年过去了，它并没有像我们希望的那样走向主流。所以它花了很长时间。事实证明，还有很多更困难的技术难题需要解决。我有些相信——我不知道马克怎么看——我认为伴随着我们现在在AI领域看到的东西，你看到了第一种临界点的出现，首先是软件工程变得比数学戏剧性地更强。我认为存在这样一种情景——而且我相信这一点，我也有点想为此投资——我们可能会把未来20年的事情提前拉到现在。我们整个思考技术风险的心态，以及“哦，那是个科学项目，不是工程项目”的想法，我认为我们现在必须重新评估这整个框架。因为我认为这些事情，如果你看看它们的增长——我的意思是，数学并不是最后改变的东西，你马上就会迎来物理学，现在硬件领域正在发生很多事情。
Original English **>>**: Yeah. I mean, we talk about this a lot. Like I think we I think I can speak for Mark and Ben, they can comment, but we believe that basically every good idea that we've ever seen that involve technology has eventually worked or we believe will work. [laughter] Okay, if it hasn't worked yet and and the important qualifier, good idea. There are bad ideas, but um it's just kind of remarkable, especially having lived through the internet um how many things um just, you know, almost everything that ended up working had a precursor that didn't work and maybe was 10 years too early. Um, and so so much, you know, and that's the hardest thing I think in technology is to predict the timing of these things. Um, and and there's just so it's so complicated, right? There's the technology, there's the culture, there's the business environment, there's the political environment. There's so many factors that go into these things and having it all line up. Um, so, you know, and so I I would say with, you know, I think generally at the firm, I would say specifically in the Frontier Fund, we want to air on the side of being too early. We understand that sometimes things will be too early and we're we're okay with kind of cool category risk. Um, some categories may not work. Look, I mean, even things that sort of worked didn't work. Like, you know, we sold Oculus, got bought, but the reality is like it's now 13 years later. I still believe very strongly in VR. Um, we'd love to in make VR investments, but it's 13 years later and it's not, you know, it hasn't got as mainstream as we would have liked. So, it took long. It turned out there's just many more hard technical problems to solve. I kind of believe I don't know what Mark believes. I think that there that with the stuff we're seeing in AI now, you know, you see the first sort of tipping happening, first software engineering getting dramatically better than math. I think there's a scenario and I I believe this and I kind of want to invest behind it where we're we may be pulling forward 20 years of things that you know our whole mindset of how we think about technical risk and oh that's a science project not an engineering project I think we have to re-evaluate that whole frame right now um because I think things you know the sort of the you know if you look at these the growth of I mean math is not the last thing that's going to change you know you're about to have physics a lot of stuff's going on in hardware right now
**>>**: 我认为这是极其巨大的变化，我认为一个30人的团队完全可以切实构建一家全栈设备公司，而在十年前你可能需要上千人，对吧？而且我认为，你有这些非常深思熟虑、有深度的创业者，他们正在寻求如何利用这些新能力来做出翻天覆地的事情。你知道，其中有些是战术层面的，比如如何建立更强的防守壁垒？如何做到不站在AI前沿的正前方两英尺处被海啸冲垮？但很大一部分原因在于，你拥有了这些惊人的新能力，而人们才刚刚开始探索你能用它做些什么。所以它——我不知道，感觉像是一个格外令人兴奋的时代。而且我们不——它……是的。所以我不知道你是否……
Original English **>>**: I think it's dramatically I think you a 30 person team can credibly build like a full stack device company in a way that you might have needed a thousand people or something a decade ago, right? And I think and you have these very, you know, very um thoughtful uh deep entrepreneurs who are looking for how do I take these new capabilities and do dramatic things and you know so some of it's tactical like how do I create more defensibility? How do I You don't want to be two feet in front of the AI frontier and get sort of washed over by the title wave, but a lot of it's about just you have these amazing new capabilities and people have only begun to explore what you can do. Um, and so it I don't know it feels like an especially exciting time. Um, and we don't it's it um it's it's Yeah. So I don't know if you
### AI作为催化剂与创业者的超级力量 **>>**: 是的。所以我想补充一下，谈谈AI作为一种催化剂。这是我认为早期采用者所理解的现有可能之事，与普遍的、普通人所理解的事情之间，最大的一次差距。我认为在个人层面上是如此，但在公司层面上尤其如此。
Original English **>>**: Yeah. So I would add so talk about AI as sort of a catalyst. Um so this is the biggest delta between I would say what the early adopters understand is possible now uh versus what kind of everybody kind of normal people understand. Um and I think that's you know true at the individual level but it's especially true at the company level.
**>>**: 那些AI原生的早期初创公司，对于自己能用AI做什么的看法，与几乎任何行业中典型的现有巨头都截然不同。几乎毫无例外。我认为这种差距是我职业生涯中见过的最大的。而且这种差距似乎还在越拉越大，也就是AI的能力甚至每周都在迅猛向前冲。因此，我们打交道的前沿创业者和技术人员，他们每周都在比典型的现存巨头稳步变得更加先进。所以这是我见过的最大的差距。如果你由此推断——如果真是这样发展，那么就会有很多行业真正面临被争夺的局面，其深刻程度从根本上可能超过以往任何时候。而这将是因为创始人们通过使用这些工具和技术，获得了过去根本不曾拥有的超能力。我的意思是，如果1994年我在网景公司（Netscape）拥有Astra，天呐，本，你和我当时在网景能做出什么来？
Original English **>>**: Um and the early the AI native early stage startups have just a completely different view on what they can do with AI than the than the than sort of you know typical incumbents in almost any industry. Uh almost without exception and and I think that that gap is as wide as I've ever seen in my career. And then it that gap seems like it's gapping further and further out which is AI is just racing ahead in capability even week by week. Um and so the leading edge entrepreneurs and technical people we deal with like they're they're they're getting they're just they're they're just by the week they're getting sort of steadily more advanced um than than than than a typical incumbent. Um so it's it's it's the biggest alt I've ever seen. And if you kind of extrapolate from that like you know if you if if that's what happens um then there's just there are going to be a lot of industries that are really up for grabs in a fundamentally you know kind of more more profound way than maybe has been the case in the past and then the and that's going to be because the founders are going to have a level of superpowers coming from the use of these tools and these technologies that they just simply haven't had in the past. I mean, you know, had I [snorts] had, you know, Astra in Netscape in 1994, like, oh my god, like, [snorts] you know, like Ben, like, what would you and I have been able to do at Netscape?
**>>**: 我们会把整个该死的互联网都建起来。我的意思是，绝对不可思议。绝对不可思议。而且正如克里斯所说，我们正在看到这一点，我们看到创业者带着极具深度和精细度的方案进来，你知道，多个部分……
Original English **>>**: We would have built the whole damn internet. I mean, absolutely incredible. It would absolutely incredible. And, you know, as Chris said, like we're seeing this, we're seeing entrepreneurs come in with like a with plans of a level of depth and sophistication, you know, multiple parts
**>>**: 连接在一起。
Original English **>>**: connecting together.
**>>**: 顺便说一句，我们当时就能把加密货币（crypto）做出来了。哦，百分之百。是的，没错。顺便说一句，大概两周之内，我们就能更早实现流媒体视频了。我是说，各种各样的事情都会发生。顺便提一下硬件，我们甚至从未涉足过硬件，但如果我们当时能做，我们本可以做很多事情。所以，我只是觉得现在的顶尖创业者将拥有这些能力，这意味着他们的商业计划会……你知道，他们的产品计划在技术上会密集和复杂得多。他们的商业计划会更加雄心勃勃、更加复杂。他们建立的公司增长速度会快得多。他们打造的产品范围，以及希望达到的业务范围也是如此。再回到这里，那些创业者将打破一切常规，他们不会去……我们已经看到了这点。他们不会认为自己“只是一家软件公司”，或者“只是一家硬件公司”，或者“只是一家不管什么公司”，甚至不认为自己“只是一家AI公司”。他们会对究竟想涉足多少不同领域、想如何将事物结合起来，进行非常广泛和开阔的思考。因此，这其中某种概念艺术家的维度将会彻底爆发。是的，我刚才想说，我们过去常常会问这样的问题：“这个想法是不是太有野心了？”而现在我们完全不会这样，我觉得我们更有可能会问：“这足够有野心吗？”
Original English **>>**: By the way, we would have gotten crypto done then. Oh, 100%. Yeah. Yeah. Like, by the way, in like two weeks, like we'd have streaming video a lot sooner. I mean, like, all kinds of things would have happened. And and then, by the way, hardware, I mean, we never even, you know, bit off hardware, but, you know, had we been able to, there's all kinds of things we could have done. Um, and so, um, I I just like I think that the leading edge entrepreneurs now are going to have like capabilities and which means they're going to have business plans that are like a lot more, you know, they're going to have product plans that are a lot more technically intensive and complex. They're going to have business plans that are more ambitious and complex. Um, they're going to be building companies that just like ramp much much faster. um uh you know the the scope of the product that they build and then you know hopefully the the scope of their business. Um and then and then and then again this goes right back to like th those entrepreneurs are going to color way outside the lines like they're they're not going to cons we already see this. They're not going to think of themselves as like I'm just a software company or I'm just a hardware company or I'm just a whatever or even I'm just an AI company or anything. They're going to they're going to think very broadly and expansively about exactly what you know how many different areas they want to touch and how they want to combine things. And so the the sort of you know conceptual artist kind of aspect of this is going to like just like blow way out. Yeah, I was going to say, you know, we used to kind of ask the question, is is this idea too ambitious? And I I don't think I think we're much more likely to ask this is this ambitious enough
**>>**: 嗯，因为你知道，什么是……
Original English **>>**: um because you know what's
### 既有企业与技术发展的节奏 ……可能的是如此惊人。如果你去做某种温和的类似东西，它大概不会有足够的差异化。顺便说一句，看看既有企业，你知道，我们花很多时间，我在既有企业里有很多朋友，顺便说一句，包括既有的科技巨头，包括硅谷里的既有企业。这就像是，[嗤笑] 你知道，我们祝他们一切顺利。而且，你知道，顺便说一句，我们有许多公司也很乐意用所有这些新工具来把他们武装起来。呃，所以，你知道，毫无疑问他们当中有些人将能够适应，但就像，你知道，如果他们当中有任何人在听现在这番话，我会说，时间正在一分一秒流逝。就像，事情……
Original English possible is so spectacular. And if you do something moderate like it, it probably won't be differentiated enough. And by the way, look in incumbents, you know, we spend a lot of time, I have a lot of friends in incumbent companies, by the way, including incumbent tech, including incumbent companies in Silicon Valley. And it's like, [snorts] you know, we wish them all the best. And, you know, we, by the way, we have lots of companies that would like to arm them up with all these all these new tools also. Um, and so, you know, so no doubt some of them are going to be able to adapt, but like, you know, if any of them are listening right now, I would say like the clock is ticking. Like it it like
**>>**: 事情正在快速演进。
Original English **>>**: stuff is moving.
**>>**: 我的意思是，就像我——我基本上，我的意思是，我是全职在做。面对眼下的发展步伐，我基本上都快被淹没了，呃，
Original English **>>**: I mean, like I I I I am basically I mean, I'm full-time. I'm basically drowning um in the the in the in the in the in the with the pace of development right now
**>>**: 以及事物变化的速度。呃，我正努力跟上所有这一切，但这几乎是不可能的。
Original English **>>**: and the speed with which things are changing. Um and I'm trying to keep up with all of it and it's nearly impossible.
**>>**: 就像……是的，在接下来的十年里，拥有 AI 超强赋能的 24 岁年轻人将会取得令人惊叹的成就。
Original English **>>**: Like it it the yeah the the the supermpowered 24y old with AI is going to just achieve like amazing things in in the next decade.
### 延续性还是颠覆性创新？ **>>**: 这正是我们刚才在此之前探讨的问题，也就是，你知道，就收益更多会归于既有企业还是初创公司而言，AI 到底是更具延续性还是颠覆性？而且到目前为止，在某种意义上似乎两者皆有，也就是说，有些企业，比如 Meta 等等，你知道，调整得非常好，而且也有完全全新的公司，你知道，在十年内就达到了接近万亿美元的规模，所以你的理解也是它实际上两者兼具吗，或者你如何看待延续性与颠覆性？嗯，那些正在适应的既有企业，我认为大部分实际上是那些直接进入 AI 领域的既有企业，你知道，然后还有其他公司，再就是有某些公司，当然是在科技领域，即使它们不是主要的 AI 开发者，也处于前沿阵地。但至少现在这种模式并不是……我的意思是，这其实非常……其实有一个非常具体的情况，我认为也许是另一期播客的话题。我认为正在发生一件非常具体的事情，那就是我认为许多公司本身并没有采用 AI，而它们的员工却在采用。
Original English **>>**: And this is a question we were asking right before this which is you know is AI more uh sustaining or disruptive in terms of like will more of the gains go to incumbents or or startups? And it seems so far it's both in some sense which is some you know the companies like you know Meta and others have you know uh sort of adjusted very well and and also their net new companies that are you know u almost trillion dollars in you know within a decade and it's so is that your read that that's effectively both or how do you think about the sustaining disruptive? Well, the incumbents that are adapting are actually the incumbents I think for the most part that are actually going directly into AI, you know, and then there are others and then there are certain, you know, there's certain companies certainly in tech that are on the leading edge even if they're not prim primary AI developers. But at least right now the pattern is is is not that I mean it's it's just really actually there's a very specific thing that I think maybe it's a topic for a different podcast. There's a very specific thing I think is happening which is I think many companies are not adopting AI while their employees are.
**>>**: 呃，而且他们的员工在用，并且员工并不一定会告诉管理层正在发生什么。而且我——顺便说一句，我敢猜现在听这个播客的每一个人都在想：噢，对，我就是这么干的。你知道，我正在用 AI 来做所有的工作，或者至少可以说核查我所有的工作，校对我所有的电子邮件，
Original English **>>**: Um and their employees are and their employees are not necessarily telling the man management what's happening. And I and by the way I'm going to guess every single person listening to this podcast right now is thinking oh yeah that's what I'm doing. You know I'm using AI you know to you know do all you know do all my work or at least let's say fact check all my work uh you know proof read all my all my all my uh emails
**>>**: 呃，即使不是直接让它代写。呃，所以就有了这种奇怪的现象，眼下的 AI 似乎有某种特性，就是个人采用它要比机构采用它容易得多。呃，顺便说一句，这又回到了我们在世界中所扮演的角色，那就是，这些人中的一部分将会意识到：噢，有了这个工具，我现在可以开始我的……你知道，对我来说创办自己的企业变得前所未有地容易。
Original English **>>**: um even if not have them written outright. Um, and so there's this weird thing where there's something about AI right now where it's like it's much easier for the individual to adopt than it is the institution. Um, and by the way, and and again it goes back to like our role in the world, which is like those some of those individuals are going to figure out like, oh, with this tool, I can now like start my, you know, it's now easier than ever for me to start my own business.
**>>**: 呃，所以我认为从现在起初创公司的成立数量将会暴增。呃，因为这些……
Original English **>>**: Um, and so I I think startup formation is going to skyrocket from here. Um, because these
**>>**: 顺便说一句，它已经开始了。
Original English **>>**: by the way, it already is.
### 全栈公司与更广阔的经济变革 **>>**: 噢，是的。我的意思是，我们正在见证这一点。我指的是我们百分之百确凿地看到了。呃，所以无论如何，回到这个主题，我完全确信我们将看到一波浪潮，带来在技术上激进得多、在商业上激进得多、更加具有扩张性、具有开创性和原创性的思维，以及过去我们认为是相互独立的事物的大量融合。呃，我们将看到创始人以及团队拥有一种不可思议的技能水平，这种惊人的技能水平原本他们可能需要 30 年的时间才能获得。他们从一开始就将拥有这种能力。顺便说一句，我想说的另一件事是，克里斯坦森（Christensen）的颠覆性创新框架假定了科技界在某种程度上是相对封闭自足的，这些公司是在相互竞争。是的，
Original English **>>**: Oh, yeah. I mean, we're seeing it. I mean, we're seeing it 100% for sure. Um, so anyway, just you kind of go go back to the theme of this is just I I I'm completely convinced like we're going to see a wave of like much more technically aggressive, much more business aggressive, much more uh expans expansionist creative original thinking, many more combinations of of of things that we would have considered to be separate things in the past. Um, and uh and uh we're going to see yeah founders was just like an in and teams was just like an incredible level of skill level uh incredible level of skill that that they otherwise might have needed, you know, 30 years to achieve or something. They're going to have like right out of the gate. And by the way, the other thing I'd say is that the the Christensen disruptive innovation frame assumes that sort of the technology world is relatively contained and that these are companies fighting with each other. Yeah,
**>>**: 我认为眼下那可能是错误的框架，现在的实际情况更像是具备现代技术的人走向其他行业，并在更广泛的层面上改变整个经济。是的。没错。特别是对于这种全栈公司，你去创建一个完整的，你知道，就像我们刚刚宣布了对 Adams 的投资，他们正去打造一个全栈式的餐饮服务以及其他业务，对吧？而且……
Original English **>>**: I think it's probably the wrong frame right now, which is it's really sort of people who are techn technologically modern going out into other industries and just changing the economy more broadly. Yeah. Right. Especially with these kind of full stack companies, you go and you create a full, you know, like uh we just announced our investment in Adams, like they're going and they're building like a full stack kind of food service and and other things, right? And
**>>**: 呃，所以，所以我认为，你有时也会谈到这一点，市场在某种程度上已经从十家大型科技公司之间的相互竞争，变成了这十家科技公司或者说这十家加上所有的初创企业，去对抗财富 500 强的其他企业或整个经济的其余部分。
Original English **>>**: um so so I think that the you talk about this sometimes like the market has sort of gone from, you know, the 10 big tech companies fighting with each other to the 10 tech company or 10 and all the startups going against the the other Fortune 500 or the rest of the economy.
**>>**: 是的。对，没错。
Original English **>>**: Yeah. Yeah, that's right.
### 价值链分布与原生应用阶段 **>>**: 我很好奇你们认为我们在发展过程中处于什么位置，或者你们是怎么看的，因为感觉在互联网时代，应用层，你知道，诞生了最大的公司，比如 Facebook、亚马逊等。但在当下的时代，感觉英伟达和一些偏硬件的公司拿走了大部分利润，或者说一些更大的公司拿走了。呃，你们怎么看待我们所处的位置？我们是在应用层还是消费级？你们是怎么思考这个问题的？我认为马克会说“以上皆是”，而且我认为许多人也觉得眼下似乎很多方向都在起作用，显然大模型 AI 实验室表现突出，但开源发展得非常非常快，中国显然有重大的投入，美国也有重大的投入，应用层的很多东西也做得非常好，所以你知道，也许在某个时刻，显然随着时间的推移，价值链会尘埃落定，某些层面的表现会好于其他层面，但是……
Original English **>>**: I'm I'm curious where where you guys think we are in the in the development or how you because it feels like you know in the internet era um application uh you know we're sort of you know the biggest companies um you know Facebook, Amazon etc. Um but in in sort of this era it feels like you know Nvidia and some of the more hardware companies are are taking a lot of the margin or some of the bigger companies. Um how do you think about you know where we are are we in the sort of applications or consumer like how do how do you think about that? I think Mark would say all all of the above and I think a lot of people think that actually right now it seems like a lot of stuff is working you know obviously the big the big AI labs but you know open source is growing very very quickly there's ser obviously the serious efforts in China the serious efforts in the US um a lot of application layer things are doing really well um that you know so you know maybe at some point you you know obviously over time that shakes out and the kind of value chain there's certain things that certain layers that do better than others but um
**>>**: 然后另一个原因，我认为就是这依然——这有点疯狂。按照大多数指标来看，对很多这类东西的需求仍然处于非常早期的阶段。呃，
Original English **>>**: and then the other I think it's just the the it's still it's like it's kind of crazy. You have the demand for a lot of this stuff uh is is still very early by most metrics. Um
**>>**: 是的。
Original English **>>**: Yep.
**>>**: 我想你们团队刚才发布了一些关于这方面的图表。衡量到的企业端使用率大概只有 3% 或类似这样的水平。
Original English **>>**: I think your team just put out some charts on this. It's like 3% of you know measured enterprise use or something like this.
**>>**: 呃，所以，这很难说，智能市场看起来非常非常庞大，而且才刚刚开始。所以……
Original English **>>**: Um and so and it's just hard and it just seems like a you know the market for intelligence is very very large and it's only getting started. So
**>>**: 呃，是的，我也说不准。
Original English **>>**: um yeah, I don't know.
**>>**: 是的，我同意。你的观点之一也是，就像你提到的，每一种新技术都会经历这样一个阶段，首先是人们思考过去的使用场景是什么，以及如何用新技术来做这些旧场景；然后当然，人们会摸索出原生于该技术的全新场景。那么我们现在处于哪个阶段呢？
Original English **>>**: Yeah, I agree. And one of your your points also is you like you mentioned that every new technology uh has this sort of first this you know phase where people think about what are the old use cases how they just do the new technology and here u and then of course people figure out net new cases that are native to that technology and so where are we there
**>>**: 是的，我的意思是我喜欢举的经典例子就是互联网，对吧？在 90 年代，人们把现有的行为搬到网上，比如你过去可能会订购西尔斯（Sears）的商品目录之类的，结果西尔斯把它搬到了互联网上；当然，当他们这样做时，你更想使用互联网版本，它更方便。早期互联网很多就是那样的。然后在 2000 年代，出现了 YouTube，他们走过来建立了一个空网页，并说：嗯，未来某一天会有这些 YouTube 网红，他们会来填充这个平台。所以他们押注的并不仅仅是技术，也不是直接拿已知行得通的东西照搬，对吧？他们押注的是一种文化变革或行为变革。呃，所以在某些方面他们承担了更大的风险，因为他们押注的是技术以及这些更广泛的变革。呃，但那才是你获得真正改变世界的事物的地方，在 2000 年代的社交媒体，你知道，所有这些。然后移动端当然加速了它，而且我认为那是我的……
Original English **>>**: yeah I mean like sort of the classic example I like to use is the internet right where in the '9s you had sort of people taking existing behaviors like you might order a Sears catalog or something and instead Sears puts it on the internet and of course when they do that you want to use the internet version it's easier and a lot of the early internet was like that and then you had you know in the 2000s you had YouTube and they come along and they put up a empty website and they say well someday there's going to be these YouTube influencers and that's going to populate the so they were betting on they weren't just betting on the technology and taking something they knew would work right they were betting on a on a on a cultural change or behavioral change um so in some ways they were taking more risk because they were betting on you know the technology and the and these yeah and these broader changes um but that's where you got the really kind of world changing stuff is in the 2000 social media you know all all And then of course mobile accelerated it and and I think that's a my
### 探索激进的新行为与技术浪潮 我自己的看法是，这是一种相当普遍的模式，而且纯粹就是人性。对吧，你做出了某个东西，你做的第一件事就是用一种更好的方式去做那些你已经知道的事情。我认为这就是我们在人工智能领域到目前为止所看到的，你知道，人们本来就会写代码，人们本来就会做数学，人们本来就会做知识工作，人们本来就习惯了像搜索引擎那样，并且有点半嫌弃它，而他们现在正在用 AI 做这些事情。但我们才刚刚开始探索这个领域：什么是那些彻底激进的事情？什么是新的行为、新的活动，对吧？那些人们以前从未做过的事情。看起来我们可能正处于那个临界点。我相信我们正处在这样一个临界点上，我们将开始看到那些更疯狂、更奇特的东西，我个人对此感到非常兴奋，而且我觉得在技术领域，我总是觉得这些浪潮从个人角度来说最令人兴奋。它们有点更加……而且这里面有着更多层面的风险。回到前沿技术这个话题，你会发现有些事情会是更直接的“射门得分”，而另一些事情则会是这种“对角折射球”，你必须让多件事情都做对，也许风险的层级更多，但也许如果你判断对了，潜在的收益也会更大。
Original English own view is that's a kind of pretty common pattern and just just human nature right you you build something and the first thing you do is you do these things you already know um in a better way and I think that's what we've seen in AI so far where you have you know people already coded people already did math um people already did knowledge work people already were used to like search engines and sort of semi-hating and they're doing those things now um but we've only begun to explore the space of like what are the radical things that that are new behaviors new activities, right? Things that people have never done before. Um, it seems like we're probably at that tip. I believe we're kind of at that tipping point where we're going to start to just sort of get see the crazier, weirder stuff, which I personally am very excited about and and find that I always find those waves in technology the most personally exciting. They're they're kind of more um and and there's sort of more layers of risk. going back to frontier like you can find some things will be you know kind of more direct shots on goal and other things will be these kinds of bank shots where you have to have multiple things go right and maybe there's more layers of risk but maybe if you're right there's more upside as well
**>>**: 是的，我对社交领域真的很兴奋。过去在 2000 年代，好像每隔几年就会出现一个新的主流社交网络，先是有 Facebook，你知道的，后来又有 Snap、TikTok，然后就感觉社交领域有点匮乏了。但在 AI 时代，这确实感觉是不可避免的，当然还有用 Tinder 进行约会，而社交领域已经有一段时间没有新东西了。这感觉是必然的：嘿，如果有了这样一个界面或设备，我把自己的所有信息都给它，那么肯定会有某种方式把它们连接起来，并赋能一整套全新的社交体验。
Original English **>>**: yeah I'm I'm really excited in social used to be in the 2000s like every few years there was a new major network there was Facebook you know what there was snap tik tok and and then it felt like there was a little bit of a darth on the social side but it with AI it does feel inevitable you know and been dating with Tinder of course and there hasn't been something in a while. It feels inevitable that hey if there's this you know interface or device that I'm you know giving all my information to that there's going to be some way that these are these are hooked up and enabling a whole new set of social experiences.
### 网络上的智能体生态 **>>**: 嗯，我的意思是，马克你可以聊聊这个，但我们正走向一个世界，看起来互联网上主要、数量最多的参与者将是智能体（agents），而不是人。
Original English **>>**: Well I mean you can talk about this Mark but we you know we're headed to a world where it looks like the main the the most numerous participants on the internet will be agents and not people.
**>>**: 我们还处于初期阶段，但这似乎有些不可避免。你有像 Muse 和 Instinct 这样的产品，它们有点像是为人们服务的实用型代理智能体。然后我认为你会看到各种完全不同类别的这类智能体，它们将成为互联网上的主要参与者。接着就会出现这样的问题：它们是否需要拥有自己的一套交流、交易、分享知识以及去做人类所做的一切事情的方式？所以，可能沿着这些方向会出现一整系列的创新。rentahuman.com（租个人网）。[笑声] 是的，
Original English **>>**: Uh we're early phases of that but it seems somewhat inevitable. you have these products like Muse and Instinct that are sort of utility proxy agents for people. Um, and then you're you're going to I think you see a whole different sets of categories of these agents and they'll become the main participants on the internet. And then there's questions of like, you know, will they need their own ways of communicating and transacting and uh sharing knowledge and doing all the things people do. Um, and so it's probably going to be a whole series of of innovations along those lines. rent a human.com. [laughter] Yeah,
**>>**: 租个人。这像是把模式颠倒过来了，对吧？
Original English **>>**: rent a human. That's like inverts the model, right?
**>>**: Moltbook 也很酷。
Original English **>>**: Moltbook was cool, too.
**>>**: 是的。是的，完全没错。那是……嗯，你知道，是的。Moltbook 算是公开的版本，然后事实证明这些智能体自己摸索出了如何搞出它们自己的……
Original English **>>**: Yeah. Yeah, totally. That's Well, you know, Yeah. Molt book was the public public kind of version and then it turned out the agents figured out how to do their own
**>>**: Hugging Face 里的那个 mold book。所以，是的，这还会多得多。是啊，网络上的智能体生态将会非常壮观。人们将以各种方式接入其中。是的，马克，我很好奇你是否在关注社交或消费领域的事物，或者甚至只是放在这种拟物化框架下看——你知道，过去平台时代行之有效的东西，而现在你看到、预期或期待的原生新用例是什么？
Original English **>>**: uh the mold book in the hugging face. So, yeah, it's going to be a lot more. Yeah, the agent the agent ecology online is going to be spectacular. People are going to plug into that in all kinds of ways. Yeah, Mark, I'm curious if there are things that you're tracking either in in social or consumer or or even just this frame of like the skuorphic, you know, things that that sort of the, you know, worked in the past sort of uh platform era and now like what net new use cases or what is native to that you're seeing or anticipating or or looking forward to?
### 产品经理思维与全新人类活动 **>>**: 好吧，我可以给你讲讲我的版本，也许跟克里斯刚才说的有一点点像，但我觉得很多……我的意思是，你看，现在有很多棒极了的演示，发布了很多出色的产品，但我刚刚观察到了这么一件事。我更早以前见证过互联网时代，我把它称作“产品经理脑”[哧鼻嗤笑]……
Original English **>>**: Well, I'll give you my my version maybe a little bit of what Chris was saying, but like I I think so many I mean look there's a lot of great demos, a lot of great products releasing right now, but there's there's this thing I've just observed. But I saw the internet era earlier and I I call it product manager brain [snorts]
**>>**: 也就是产品经理基本上是在为产品经理设计产品，对吧？顺便说一句，这是每个人都会做的一件事，就是他们为自己做产品；产品经理嘴上说着他们是在为其他人做产品，[笑声]
Original English **>>**: um which is product manager is basically designing products for product managers right it's like it's by the way it's the one thing everybody does is they build products for themselves product managers have the story that they're building for other people [laughter]
**>>**: 然而不管怎样，所有的用例全都是：帮我在旧金山订个餐厅去吃饭，和我那些同样也是产品经理的朋友聚餐；或者帮我订一张去参加产品管理大会的机票，在那儿我也可以和我所有的产品经理朋友们混在一起。所以这里面有一种……再一次，这本身确实有用武之地，但这有点像……我觉得这就像 Anthropic 的——我是个什么来着？我是个快乐、有用、有害、无害的……我是个快乐、无害的，不管是什么，“诚实的助手”，对吧？而这也有点意味着：我成了你所能想象的最无聊的东西，还要不断对我进行说教——“你问了我一个我不被允许回答的问题”，对吧？所以，这就好像……早期这些公司的本质决定了他们对人类活动、对人们真正想做的事情有着非常狭隘的视角。就像你刚才提到的，有了 Muse 和 Instinct，这扇大门开始被推开了。但你看，这将会变成一个娱乐性强得多、好玩得多、令人愉快且令人兴奋的领域。顺便说一下，这也非常有利可图，人们能赚到钱。人们将会有各种各样的方式来赚钱。
Original English **>>**: and yet somehow all the use cases are you know book me a restaurant you know to eat in San Francisco to go have dinner with my friends who are also product managers um or you know book me a plane flight to go to a product management conference where I also get to hang out with all my product manager friends and so there there's this you know it's a little and again there's a role for this but it's a bit like I think it's like the anthropic I'm a what is it? I'm a happy, helpful, harmful, harmless. I'm a happy, harmless, whatever it is. Honest assistant, right? And it's a little which also means I'm I am the most boring possible thing you could possibly imagine that's going to be constantly lecturing me. You've asked me a question I'm not allowed to answer, right? And so it's it's like there's just going to be this this this sort of we just had this very just the nature of the early companies who just had this very blinker view on on human activity what people are going to want to do. And it's to your point like with with Muse and Instinct, it's it's starting to open up. Um, but like look, this is going to be a much more entertaining, fun, enjoyable, exciting. Um, by the way, lucrative people are going to make money. There'll be all kinds of ways for people to make money.
**>>**: 能够省钱，能够成为一部分……参与到经济的一部分中，能够成为创作者，能够去创作新型的艺术。我的意思是，就在过去大概三周里，从零开始制作音乐视频的人群迎来了一场大爆发。
Original English **>>**: U, [snorts] be able to save money, u, be able to be parts of, you know, participate in parts of the economy, be able to be creators, you know, be able to, uh, you know, create new kinds of art. I mean, just in the last like three weeks, there's been an explosion of people making music videos like Denovo.
**>>**: 是的。
Original English **>>**: Yeah.
**>>**: 涵盖了极其不可思议的一系列创意想法和主题……
Original English **>>**: On like an incredible array of like creative ideas and topics
### 电子游戏与创意复兴 **>>**: 比如过去三周里电子游戏领域彻底爆发了。
Original English **>>**: like video games in the last three weeks have blown up. Uh,
**>>**: 我们能提一下这个吗？因为这实在是太引人注目了。
Original English **>>**: can we mention that just because that's so striking?
**>>**: 是的，我的意思是我总觉得电子游戏很有趣，因为它们往往是媒体的前沿，我觉得它们往往走在最前沿，因为这是一种迭代很快的技术文化。但我刚才看到了一个案例，就是你可以把任意两款电子游戏……首先，你可以把所有代码反编译然后进行移植，现在正在发生的完全是疯狂的事情，你现在可以在 Unix 上运行 Windows 游戏，而且比在 Windows 上跑得还快，因为有了这些反编译器，而且这些 AI 太厉害了。另外还有一个案例，你可以把任意两款电子游戏拿过来，它能把它们融合成一体，做出一款组合式的电子游戏，你知道，这完全是一种疯狂的新行为。
Original English **>>**: Yeah, I mean I always think I always find video games interesting because they they're kind of the the lead I find they're often the leading edge of media because it just it's a technical culture that kind of iterates quickly. But like the I just saw one where it's like you can take any two video well first of all you can disassemble everything port them and just crazy stuff going on now where you can you can now run like Windows games on Unix faster than on Windows like because of these these disassemblers and these AIs are so good. Um, but also there was like this one where you can take any two video games and it will mash them up together and create a combo video game of it, which you know, just like a crazy new behavior.
**>>**: 《超级马里奥》加上《GTA》，[笑声]
Original English **>>**: Super Mario and GTA, [laughter]
**>>**: 对吧？
Original English **>>**: right?
**>>**: 《蜘蛛侠》和《侏罗纪公园》。
Original English **>>**: Spider-Man and Jurassic Park.
**>>**: 这简直……正如马克所说，这真的是太疯狂了，我想这大概才过了两周左右。这好像是从什么 Opus 55 还是别的什么推出之后开始的。所以这种事情发生的速度……一个月之内可能又会出现什么别的，两周内就会有另一波巨大的浪潮。你看 Epic 昨天刚说了不再招人类，对吧？所以在电子游戏行业里虽然一直存在对 AI 的文化抵触，但我认为那是第一块倒下的多米诺骨牌，因为这根本就是不可避免的，因为这是一种好得多的构建事物的方式，而且对消费者来说也会非常好。你将会拥有这种……
Original English **>>**: Um, and it's just and it's literally the crazy like to Mark's point, it's been I think like two weeks or something. It was like since what like Opus 55 or something. Um, and so it's just like the rate at which this stuff is happening and like what in a month there'll probably be some other, you know, two weeks there'll be some other big wave of this. Um, uh, you see Epic just yesterday said no more humans, right? And so like, yeah, there's been cultural resistance in the video game industry to AI, but like I think that's the first of the dominoes to fall because it's just inevitable because it's a much better way to build things and you're going to it's going to be great for consumers. You're going to have this
**>>**: 我认为这将是一场创意复兴。你将会看到，任何独立开发者都可以去开发出好像拥有一支庞大团队才能做出的东西，而且我认为他们依然可以拥有……人类的创造力依然有巨大的发挥空间。它只是为人类的创造力赋予了超能力。
Original English **>>**: I think it's going to be a creative renaissance. you're going to have this, you know, any independent developer can go and build like they have a huge team and um and and still have I think they can still have there's a lot of room for human creativity. It just it's a it's a is superpowers human creativity. Um
**>>**: 所以我想，我想你刚才提到了电影。好吧，哦对，那可能会花更长时间。我不知道什么时候……那在死神敲门梗图之类的地方排在哪个位置，我不知道是哪扇门，但是……
Original English **>>**: so I think I think you were mentioning movies. Well, oh yeah, that might take longer. I don't know when that when that where that is on the you know the the or that that death door meme or whatever like I don't know which door it is but uh
**>>**: 你能非常快地搞定它。我只是……我完全……我刚才在说，我完全迷上了那部叫《Digger》的新电影，而我简直就像是唯一看过它的人。你
Original English **>>**: you can snap it quite quickly. I just I'm completely I was giving I'm completely obsessed with the movie this movie Digger that came out and I'm like literally the only person who saw it. You
### 娱乐制作成本与逆向工程硬件 会百分之百忍不住在前三十分钟后退场。就像你，你会想这么做，我有个朋友真带——我有个朋友带了她母亲去看了。
Original English will be 100% tempted to walk out after the first half hour. Like you you will want to I I have a friend who literally took I have a friend who took her mother to see it
**>>**: 然后她们在开场半小时后就退场了，现在家里常说的笑话就是：“哦，《digger 2》上映了。咱们，你知道，咱们去电影院吧，”你知道，纯粹是因为这个想法太搞笑了，但很多人都有过这种体验，可如果你真的看完了整部电影，他们之所以那么做是有原因的，而且并不是你以为的那样，我不想剧透，但它完全不是表面呈现出来的那种方式。非常聪明。嗯，总之，但是，你知道，它算是一项难以置信的创意成就，但对于片厂来说却是一笔大约两亿美元的现金亏损，但这纯粹是因为它的制作预算大约有一亿八千万美元。嗯，所以就像有了人工智能，如果那部电影的制作预算是两千万美元会怎样，如果它——你知道，或者两百万美元制作预算呢，对吧？那种水平的艺术与创意，嗯，以更低的价格制作出来，本该是很棒的。作为一门生意来说，顺便提一句，作为一桩商业层面的事情，两百万——那部电影在两百万美元的预算下本会极其暴利。本可以让投资者赚回十倍的资金。嗯，所以是的，在娱乐行业里，将会有巨大的机遇展现出来。 然后另一个，你知道，克里斯，你和我，长久以来都多多少少涉足过硬件领域。就像我的整个职业生涯，你知道，硬件——你知道，对于我这个做软件的人来说，硬件一直就像是未知的危险领域（terror incognito），也就是那种“那里有恶龙盘踞”，对吧？涉足硬件实在太容易把公司搞垮了。然后再回到你的观点，就在过去这三周里。一个叫作 REA（reverse engineer anything，逆向工程一切）的开源工具发布了。这东西调用了一个 AI 模型，你把它对准任何东西，它就会进行逆向工程并给你源代码。而你现在可以逆向工程的东西之一，就是任何硬件设备，
Original English **>>**: and they walked out after the first half hour and now the running joke in the family is oh digger 2 is out. let's, you know, let's head to the theater, you know, just because it's such a comical idea, but so like a lot of people have had that, but if you actually watch the entire movie, there's a reason why they did what they did, and it's not what you think it is, and I don't want to spoil it, but like it's not it's not the way it is is presented at all. It's very clever. Um, anyway, but but like, you know, it's it's so it's this incredible creative achievement, but it's a $200 million like cash loss for the for for for the studio, but it's that's because it had like $180 million production budget. Um, and so it's like with AI, what if that movie had had a $20 million production budget and what if it had made, you know, or a two or a $2 million production budget, right? Like that that level of art and creativity um at a lower price would have been great. As a business, by the way, as a business thing would have been f two million that that movie on a $2 million budget would have been insanely profitable. Would have been made the investors back 10 times their money. Um, and so yeah, there's there's a huge thing that's going to open up in in the entertainment business. And then the other one, you know, Chris, you and I have have sort of, you know, been in and around hardware for a long time. like my whole career, you know, hardware, you know, for I'm a software person. Hardware has always been like terror incognito, which is like, you know, there are dragons there, right? Like it's just it's been so easy to blow up companies by going into hardware. And then again, your point like just in the last 3 weeks. So this this open source tool dropped called REA, reverse engineer anything. And it's this thing harnesses an AI model and you point it at anything, it'll reverse engineer it and give you source code. And one of the things that you can reverse engineer now is any piece of hardware,
**>>**: 对吧？所以你家里如果有一个温控器让你很火大，因为它工作不正常。你可以把这东西对准温控器，对它进行逆向工程，AI 就会为你编写新代码并安装上去，在温控器里植入一个新界面。
Original English **>>**: right? And so you have a thermostat that's like pissing you off in your house because it's not like working right. You can point this thing at the thermostat, reverse engineer it, and and the AI will write you new code and install it and put a new interface in the thermostat.
### 家庭自动化与软件重构硬件 **>>**: 基本上任何东西都是如此，基本上任何形式的硬件现在都可以用这些东西接管并重新编程。突然之间，就像是——我是说，你看看所有这些领域，我不知道现在是否有人在做这个，但光是家庭自动化——家庭自动化一直以来在市场上都是个彻头彻尾的噩梦，作为客户去安装实施也是噩梦。如果有人曾经做过任何形式的新房自建，那就是个噩梦。但家庭自动化也许就应该是一个 AI 机器人，直接接管你家里的所有硬件，按照你想要的任何方式去运行它。我身边真有朋友现在就在他们自己家里这么做。嗯，所以我们有可能正在迈入——我们正在迈入一场复兴。一种思考方式是，任何懂软件的人，可能自然而然就能够搞定历史上在硬件领域一直很困难的许多事情，以一种前所未见的方式。嗯，所以是的，它就是——是的。然后这种乘数效应，你知道，这些是离科技最近的领域，但接着你往外扩展，你基本上会觉得整个经济都向这类事物敞开了大门。现在，
Original English **>>**: And the same thing is true for ba basically anything like basically any form of hardware can now be taken over and reprogrammed with with this stuff. And so all of a sudden it's just like I mean I mean you take all these spaces I don't if anybody's doing this yet, but like just home automation is home automation's always been a complete nightmare of a market and and to implement as a customer. If anybody's ever done any sort of, you know, new house build, it's just a nightmare. But like home automation maybe should just be an AI bot that just like takes over all the hardware in your house and runs it however it is that you want to do that. And I I have friends that are literally doing this like right now in their in their own homes. Um, and so there is we we are potentially entering here like we're entering a renaissance. One way to think about it is like any anybody who understands software may sort of automatically be able to do a lot of the things that historically have been difficult in hardware um in a way that's just never been conceivable before. Um and so yeah, it just Yeah. And then you this sort of multiplicative thing you know these you know these are kind of the fields that are like closest into tech but then you just you know you you you expand out and you just you kind of think bas you know the entire economy is kind of uh open for for this kind of thing. Now
**>>**: 本，有没有任何——任何原生——你看到或希望看到的 AI 原生用例，或者我们尚未讨论的前沿领域？
Original English **>>**: Ben are there any uh any native uh AI native use cases that you're seeing or or are hoping to see or frontier uh sort of spaces that you we haven't discussed?
### AI 原生媒介与新表达形式 **>>**: 嗯，我认为那是一次非常棒的讨论。我是说，对我而言，关键在于这些将很难去预先设想，因为它们是全新的事物。你知道，电影行业的反应挺有意思的，有些人真正拥抱了它，而还有一群人把头埋在沙子里。但我认为，电影行业将要发生的改变是，会诞生一种新的媒介。嗯，我认为 AI 电影不会是传统意义上的 movie。它将会是非常、非常不同的东西。而且看，AI 也会被用来更高效地制作常规电影，带来更好的特效等等。但是，如果你拥有这套工具，你能讲的故事将与以往能讲的完全不同。以前根本不可行。我的意思是，对于像克里斯托弗·诺兰这样的人来说都勉强才行得通，但他是唯一一个能做到的人。嗯，其他任何人都没有机会，而现在每个人都将能够做到这一点。然后将会涌现出全新的想法，因为你想做什么都可以。
Original English **>>**: Well that I think that was a really good discussion. I mean, I I think to me the the key is like these are going to be hard to anticipate because they're brand new things. You know, it it's funny like how the film industry has reacted where, you know, some people have really embraced it and you know, and then there's a bunch of people who have buried their head in the sand. But I think that, you know, what's going to happen with movies is there's going to be a new media. Um, you know, I think the AI film is not going to be a movie. it's going to be something very very different. Uh and and then look AI will also be used to make regular movies uh kind of more efficiently and and you know with better special effects and so forth. But the stories you can tell if you have this thing are just completely different than what you could ever tell before. Like there's you know it just hasn't been viable. I mean it's barely been viable for like Christopher Nolan but he's like the one guy who could do it. Um, but nobody else had a chance and and now everybody's going to be able to do it. And then there will be new ideas that that that come because you could do whatever you want.
**>>**: 是的。我总是会想到照相机。照相机发明出来时，从消极的一面来看，消极的版本我想是，如果你是一个画风景画之类的人，它可能会取代你。积极的视角是它开启了电影。没有照相机你就无法拥有电影，对吧？所以，你知道，许多这类技术既会改变旧的媒介形式，但同时也会让人们发明出新的形式。正如本所说的，我不知道它具体是什么，但我敢打赌肯定会有一种 AI 原生的媒介形式。嗯，人们会用 AI 来制作电影，但他们也会做出一些我们现在可能难以想象的事情。嗯，那将是全新的东西。
Original English **>>**: Yeah. I always think of like the camera. So the camera on the negative frame of the camera's invented. The negative version I guess is if you know if you're somebody who paints landscapes or something, it could replace you. The positive frame is is it unlocks motion pictures. You couldn't have had that without that, right? And so, you know, a lot of these technologies will both change an older form of media, but then also uh allow people to invent a new one. To Ben's point, like I I I would I don't know what it is, but I bet you there's a AI native form of media. Um people will make movies with AI, but they'll also do things that are probably hard for us to imagine right now. Um that'll be brand new.
### 去中心化与 AI 的市场架构 **>>**: 是的。[清嗓子] 杰出的 Peter Teal 曾经说过一句话，我想大概是十年前或者什么时候，他说，加密货币是自由意志主义的，AI 是共产主义的，意思是加密货币是去中心化的，AI 则是中心化的。但考虑到我们正在讨论的，AI 带来了如此巨大的杠杆和力量，以至于单人公司或三十人公司可以做到比以往高出几个数量级的事情，我并不确定这是否完全正确。
Original English **>>**: Yeah. [clears throat] The the brilliant Peter Teal once had this quote, I think a decade ago or something where he said, you know, crypto is libertarian. AI is uh is is communist which meant you know crypto is decentralizing AI is centralizing but I'm not sure that's entirely true given the conversation we're having about how AI uh gives so much leverage and so much power where you know one person companies or 30 person companies can do you know orders of magnitude what they could do prior.
**>>**: 是的。是的。我认为这里面蕴含着所有这些有趣的问题。比如其一是，AI 最终的市场结构会是怎样的？我认为它目前的走向是，你会有非常成功的巨头，像大型的 OpenAI 和 Anthropic，但你也会看到开源的巨大兴起，如果你去看 OpenRouter 的数据这类东西，开源在 Token 消耗方面的增长我认为、我相信要快得多。
Original English **>>**: Yeah. Yeah. I I I think there's all these interesting questions embedded in that like one is what is the end up final market structure of AI like I think where it's headed right now is you're going to have very successful like the big open AIS and anthropics but I you're also seeing a really big rise in uh open if you look at the open router data and things like open source is growing I think I believe much more quickly in terms of token consumption
**>>**: 而且我们还没真正见到——但我认为我们可能会见到，所有的趋势都在那里——也就是本地模型，比如人们在边缘端运行这些东西，在他们的电脑上运行。也许在短期内，你就可以在你的电脑上运行一个顶级的代码智能体（coding agent）或者聊天机器人之类的东西。因此我认为，对于一种更广泛去中心化的市场结构来说，有着大量的机会。然后就加密货币而言，我认为加密货币可以扮演重要角色，比如当你有了一个智能体经济体（economy of Asians）时，它们互相支付的天然方式就是稳定币。
Original English **>>**: and then you know we haven't really seen yet and I think we may see with all the trends are there which is local models like people running these things at the edges running them on their computer maybe in the near term you can get you can run a top-end coding agent on your computer or chatbot or something like that. So I think that I think that there's a lot of opportunity for um a market structure that's sort of more broadly um decentralized like that. And then in terms of crypto I think crypto can play an important role like the natural way when you have an economy of Asians for them to pay each other would be stable coins.
**>>**: 是的。然后在此基础之上，一旦你拥有了底层可编程货币，你就可以构建去中心化借贷，以及人们在加密货币世界中所构建出的所有其他东西。嗯，所以这些都是悬而未决的问题。我认为这正是让它令人兴奋的地方，也是我们很希望能产生影响的地方。我认为我们非常坚信开源软件、权重开放模型（openweight models）、当然还有加密货币和区块链。我非常希望能看到未来的一个版本，既拥有所有这些伟大的技术，包括这些大型的中心化公司，但也有很多……
Original English **>>**: Yeah. And then on top of you know once you have sort of that base layer programmable money you would build you know decentralized lending and um and you know all the other things that people have built out in the crypto world. Um and so these are all open questions. Um I think it's what makes it kind of exciting and you know something we'd love to have an influence on is sort of you know I think we're you know we're big believers in open source software uh openweight models um uh crypto obviously blockchains and I I think I would love to see a version of this future that has all this great technology including these big centralized companies but also uh a lot
### 开源与竞争环境 ……开源，你知道，某种公平的竞争环境。我认为消费者有这样的选择更好，初创企业有这样的选择也更好，所以，你知道，我们会尽我们所能，希望能把事情往那个方向推一把。
Original English of open source you know kind of level playing field I think it's better for consumers to have options like that it's better for startups to have options like that and so you know we'll do what we and to kind of hopefully nudge things that way.
**>>**: 说到这里，Mark、Ben，你们两位是否对目前开源的发展状态感到振奋？无论是从技术角度来看，还是从大家对它的看法以及整个行业的成功程度来看。
Original English **>>**: On that note, are Mark Ben are you guys encouraged with the you know where this sort of state of open source is currently from a technological perspective but also from a sort of you know um sort of just how it's perceived and how how it's uh the success of the industry in general.
**>>**: 我是说，现在它非常棒。我是说，是的，目前开源正在一路飞奔。现在出现了这种极好的动态，你知道，我们这个时代的两大科技超级大国是美国和中国，除了有企业在构建专有系统之外，两国都拥有非常活跃的开源生态。你知道，过去三四年里一直存在着一种迫近的威胁——我是说，我们过去也讨论过这个——存在着一种在我看来属于严苛且完全不可接受程度的威胁，也就是各国政府里各路人士一直在威胁要对开源施加监管甚至予以禁止。我认为欧盟仍然渴望这么做，只是他们手上没有足够的筹码。呃，大概是用罚款威胁所有人，直到我们停止这么做吧。但是，你知道，美国现任政府是百分之百支持开源的，一直非常令人鼓舞。事实上非常支持，现任政府百分之百希望美国开源发展壮大，并在全球 AI 竞争中取胜。中国方面也是，而且顺便说一句，让我非常意外的是，我绝没有想到中国共产党会对面向全球的开源 AI 如此热情，但目前他们确实如此。所以目前这简直是难以置信。可以说是绝对令人惊叹。而且开源模型比起闭源模型，你知道，落后大概六个月到十二个月，取决于你怎么计算。 然后顺便提一下这里的教育层面。我也经常想到，当人们谈论禁止或监管开源时，他们会说，你知道，这会被用来做坏事，诸如此类的讨论确实存在；但另一方面则是，我们是否希望人们学习这门技术是如何运作的？我们是否希望人们理解它并有能力去应对它？而且顺便说一句，是能够在问题出现时真正理解问题并知道如何修复？我们是否希望下一代孩子能够真正理解这些东西是如何产生的？如果要学 AI，要是你的孩子能学到 AI 的唯一途径是去两家公司之一工作，作为父母，你想想看，大概会把你逼疯吧。
Original English **>>**: I mean right now it's great. I mean yeah so right now open source is racing ahead. you got this great dynamic where you know there's you know the two the two great tech superpowers of our age are the US and China both have you know very active um open source uh you know kind of worlds in addition to you know companies building building proprietary systems you know there there there's been this looming threat I mean you know we've talked about this in the past there's been this looming threat for the last three or four years of a level of what I would consider to be you know draconian and completely unacceptable you know either regulation or banning of open source that various folks in in governments have been threatening um I think the EU still aspires to do it um they just don't quite have the leverage. Uh threaten everybody with fines until we stop doing it, I guess. But um you know, the the current US administration is 100% pro uh open source has been very encouraging. Um in fact, very much so 100% the current administration 100% wants American open source to happen and to to win AI uh globally. The Chinese also um and by the way, a big surprise to me is I would have never thought the Chinese Communist Party would be like this enthusiastic about, you know, open source AI for the world, but at the moment they are. Um and so at the moment it's just it's just incredible. Like it's just absolutely ab absolutely amazing. And then you know the the open models are you know kind of lapping the um you know the uh the closed models by you know 6 months 12 months depending on how you count. Um, and then as as and then by the way the educational part of this I also always think when people talk about you know banning open source or regulating it they're like you know it's going to get used for bad things and you know there's there's sort of that whole discussion but the other is like do we want people to learn how this stuff works and do we want people to understand it and be able to deal with it and by the way right by by the way be be able to actually understand the problems as they arise and how to fix them and do we want the next generation of kids to actually understand how this stuff happens like what if to learn about AI like how how would you feel if the only way your kid could learn about AI is to go to work for one of two companies like that you know as a parent I think would probably drive you pretty crazy.
**>>**: 而在开源的世界里，每个孩子都能学习这套东西是如何运作的，这实际上（清嗓子）太棒了。关于 AI，有一个真正被低估的地方在于：AI 会教你认识 AI。
Original English **>>**: Um whereas in a world of open source like every kid can learn how this stuff works and it's actually [clears throat] amazing. One of the really underestimated things about AI is AI will teach you about AI.
**>>**: 不过有一个例外，那就是某些大公司的 AI 模型实际上会拒绝这样做，这非常有意思。但开源模型百分之百会教你如何制作开源 AI。
Original English **>>**: Well with one exception which is that the AI models from certain of the large companies actually will refuse to do that which is sort of very interesting. Um but the open source models 100% will teach you how to make open source AI.
**>>**: 所以我认为，世界上每个孩子与生俱来的权利，都应该包括能够充分理解和利用这项技术。
Original English **>>**: Um and so every kid in the world I think should have as their birthright the ability to like fully understand and utilize this technology.
**>>**: 顺便说一下，保护你自己。比如 Hugging Face 是怎么保护自己的？开源软件。（笑声）我的意思是，开源意味着每个人都拥有最先进的漏洞扫描器来保护自己免受网络攻击。
Original English **>>**: By the way defend yourself. So like how how did hugging face defend themselves? Open source software. [laughter] I mean like open source means everyone has the most advanced vulnerability scanner to protect themselves from cyber. Um
**>>**: 是的。
Original English **>>**: yep.
**>>**: 每个人口袋里都揣着一位医生和一位天才教授。你知道我的意思——
Original English **>>**: Everyone has a doctor and a genius professor in their pock pocket. You know I mean
**>>**: 是的。
Original English **>>**: y
### 本地模型与反集中化 **>>**: 这也是为什么互联网能无处不在的原因。正因为开源，你可以用一部 10 美元手机的代价接入互联网并获取全世界的信息。所以，有一件事很快就开始出现了，Ben，开始出现的一件事就是：荒野探险者开始在手机上携带完全装载好的本地 LLM，完全不需要网络连接。原因在于，如果他们遇到了，比如，我不知道野外会发生什么，但如果有一只熊——
Original English **>>**: it's how we have why why the internet's ubiquitous. You can get internet access with all the world information for the price of a $10 cell phone because of open source. So, one of the things that started real quickly, Ben, one of the things that started is like wilderness explorers are starting to take local LMS with them on their phones completely loaded up to not require internet connection. Um, and the reason is cuz like if they get like in a you know, I don't know if like I don't know whatever if a bear I don't know what happens in the wilderness, but I don't
**>>**: 嗨，被响尾蛇咬了。
Original English **>>**: Hi, bit by a rattlesnake.
**>>**: 被（笑声）响尾……熊咬住你的腿不放，或者管它到底发生了什么事。你得辨别哪只熊是有毒的之类的。你会希望能跟 AI 对话，但你可能没有网络信号。因此，手机上的开源模型突然之间就让你有了一位精通野外求生方方面面的教授专家，诸如此类。这是一种你如果依赖少数几家专有供应商、所有东西都跑在云端就无法获得的能力。所以，是的，我目前对此感觉非常好。我依然担心世界各地的政府会对这件事情变得充满敌意。顺便说一句，这又回到了你提到的 Peter Thiel 的框架：如果没有开源，AI 不可避免地会中心化；不可避免地会集中到一两家公司，或者干脆彻底集中到政府手里，对吧？我想问大家这样一个问题：闭上眼睛，想象一下“政府寿司”这个概念。（笑声）然后闭着眼睛，再想象一下“政府 AI”，你感觉如何？开源就是保证那种未来不会发生的兜底力量。
Original English **>>**: Bit [laughter] by a rattlesn bear clamps on your leg and won't like go or what whatever the hell it is that happens. You got to tell which bear is poisonous or whatever. It's like you want to be able to talk to an AI but you might not have connectivity. And so an open source model on the phone um all of a sudden is just like you have like a you know professor expert on I guess all aspects of wilderness survival um or what right whatever and right and that's a level of capability that you would not have if you were reliant on a handful of proprietary vendors where everything's running in the cloud and so yeah I I at the moment I feel really good about it I I am still worried that the you know the the various governments around the world are going to you know really kind of get hostile to this and it and by the way it goes back to your your your Peter Teal framing which is like without open source AI inevitably centralizes And inevitably centralizes down to, you know, one or two companies or maybe just flat out the government, right? And and I and I guess I I would ask people the following question, which is just close your eyes and picture the concept of government sushi. [laughter] Um, and then keep your eyes closed and picture government AI and you know, how do you feel about that? Um, and open source is the is the is the guarantor that that's that's not the future.
**>>**: 是的。我是说，赞同 Mark 的观点，我认为我们所知道的、向来会在世界上引发恶果的一件事，就是权力的极度集中。一家公司、一个政府、任何单一的东西，历来都是糟糕的。但回到开源这一点上，如果你看当前 AI 存在的问题，比如安全问题等等，最大的安全问题大概就是这种“奖励作弊”（reward hacking）现象：AI 会做一些你并没有让它做的事情，但这（清嗓子）成了它获取奖励的一种手段。而各大实验室到目前为止并没有真正花很大力气去解决这个问题，无论出于什么原因。你知道，他们正忙着彼此竞争。也许没有办法弄清究竟是怎么回事，也没有办法构建出对这种想法更具韧性的模型。但如果每所大学里的每一位博士生、每一位教授、每一位本科生都能去查看权重和奖励作弊，看看他们是否能够解决这个问题，那或许会是一件相当让人兴奋的事情。所以，如果只有一家公司能去研究这个问题，这种事情是根本不可能实现的。你真正希望的是全世界的人一起来让这项技术变得更出色、让这项技术变得更安全，而不是仅仅依靠碰巧在两家公司——或者也许是三家公司——工作的人。加油，Meta。
Original English **>>**: Yeah. I I I mean to Mark's point I think the one thing that we know has always led to badness in the world is a massive concentration of power and you know one company one government one when one anything is is always been bad but you know kind of back to the point on open source like if you look at the problems in AI now the safety problems and so forth probably the biggest safety problem is this reward hacking phenomenon where the AI will do something that you didn't tell it to do but [clears throat] is kind of a means to an end to get its reward. And the labs so far haven't really worked on that very hard um for whatever reason. You know, they're they're busy kind of racing each other. And maybe there's no way to figure out what's going on with that and no way to kind of build a model that is more resilient to that kind of idea. But like what if every PhD student, every professor, every undergraduate in every university could look at the weights and the reward hacking and uh you know see if they could solve that and like maybe that would be a pretty darn darn exciting thing. And so you know these kinds of things are just not possible if only one company can work on the problem. Like you really want the whole world making this technology great and making this technology safe, not just the people who happen to work at two companies or maybe three companies. Go Meta.
**>>**（清嗓子）: 确实。
Original English [clears throat] **>>**: Exactly.
**>>**: 四家公司。加油，SpaceX。
Original English **>>**: Four companies. Go SpaceX.
### 技术的复合演进与商业模式 **>>**: 是的。没错。这激发了几个观点。其一，你知道，每周或每天都会出现让我们震撼的技术进展或突破。同时，这还伴随着这样一句话：这是这项技术有史以来最差的状态。就像每天它都在变得越来越好，正在复合叠加。很有趣的是，Thiel 曾经说过这样一句话：“我们想要能飞的汽车，得到的却只有 140 个字符。”这很有意思，因为现在掌管那家做 140 个字符公司的家伙，同时也在制造飞行汽车，而我们这两家都投资了。
Original English **>>**: Yeah. Exactly. Every um well inspires a couple points. One is, you know, every week or every day, you know, there's a technological development or or breakthrough that we're blown away by. And then also it's coupled with the statement of like this is the worst the technology will ever be. like every day it just it just gets you know it gets better and better and we're it's compounding you and funny uh you know Tiel also had this quote around uh we wanted flying cars and all we got was 140 characters um and it's funny because the guy who now runs a company who does the 140 characters or it also is building flying cars and we're investors in both
**>>**: 所以，这一切转了一大圈又回到了原点，这很有意思。Chris，我想转到你在其中一篇撰文中提到的另一个观点，那就是互联网的商业模式正在瓦解，或者正在……
Original English **>>**: and so uh it's funny how full circle uh it all all is um Chris I want to come to a different point uh that you had in in one of your wups which is uh the business model of the internet is breaking or is
### 互联网契约的重构与硬件形态 脆弱。你为什么不谈谈那个呢？ 是的，我的意思是互联网曾有点像在那里，我把它看作，我称之为契约，互联网的契约，这有点像互联网的分发方——谷歌、Facebook 等等——与内容方之间的一笔交易，内容方你知道的，就是新闻网站、旅游网站，不管是什么。你想想谷歌，比如过去的想法是你给谷歌一点摘要，让他们索引你，然后他们会给你带来一些点击，对吧？大概在上个十年这开始破裂，但尤其是现在，你去谷歌，你得到一个答案，对吧？你得到，你知道，越来越像社交网络试图把你留在上面，不往外链接。这带来的就是下游效应，对吧？这意味着依靠广告、转化和其他东西赚钱的网站再也做不到了。我认为这可能将会，你知道，你看到了早期的迹象，比如 Stack Overflow 和其他一些网站，在出现 AI 替代品后，流量急剧下降。 所以，你看，人们依然会去预订旅……也许他们不会去，也许你的代理人会去旅游网站，或者也许你通过其他方式得到食谱，人们依然会得到这些东西，但你知道很多这类交易依然会发生，只是不会以过去发生的方式进行。因此消极的一面是它在近期是痛苦的，有很多建立在人类注意力经济之上的企业将会面临挑战。 我认为在创业者这边，有一个机会从第一性原理重新思考这些事情，并说：好吧，一个更好的互联网看起来是什么样的？你知道，一个人们被 AI 和其他一切赋能、并且想要做事、我们该如何去重组它的互联网。所以我认为这将在接下来的，我们称之为十年内发生，你将迎来这种互联网的重大重构，包括经济如何运作，注意力如何流动，知识如何共享，人们如何一起生产东西、协作，组织如何通过互联网互动。 所以它，我不知道，感觉，而且以一种我觉得移动端没有产生的那种影响的方式。移动端显然，我认为，让互联网从随便说五亿人增长到五十亿人，增加了参与度和整整一大堆其他东西，你知道，让人类的口袋里装满了所有信息，产生了很多好效果。但这在重塑事物的方式上要显著得多，所以我想这也会，对某些人来说会有些痛苦，但我也认为这会带来很多机会。 在这一点上，既然我们在谈论移动端，对于计算、设备，或者自从 iPhone 以来就基本相当固定的外形规格，你有什么预测，或者有什么让你感到兴奋的事情吗？有没有什么新的形态是你特别兴奋或期待的？
Original English vulnerable. Why don't you talk about that? Yeah, I mean the internet was sort of there I I think of it as I call it the covenant the internet's covenant which is sort of a deal between a deal between the distribution side of the internet Google Facebook and so forth and the the content side you know news sites travel sites whatever it might be um you think about Google like the idea was you kind of give Google a snippet let them index you and then they'll send you some clicks right um that started to break like maybe last decade but particularly now you go to Google you get an answer right um you're get, you know, more and more you're sort of the social networks are trying to keep you on there, not linking out. Um and what that does is it has downstream effects, right? It means that the websites that make money on ads and conversions and other things um can no longer do that. I think that's probably going to you know, you see the early signs of this like, you know, Stack Overflow and some other websites where the traffic dropped precipitously when you had sort of a AI replacements. Um and so you know the the but but look people will still be booking tra like maybe they won't go maybe maybe your agent will go to the travel website or maybe um you know some other you know you'll get a recipe in some other way people will still get these things but you know many of these transactions will still happen um they just won't happen in the way they were happening and so that the the negative is it's painful in the near term and there's a bunch of businesses that are built on the sort of human attention economy that will have challenges. is I think on the entrepreneur side there's a chance to rethink these things from first principles and say okay what what is a what does a better internet look like you know internet where people are empowered with you know AI and everything else um and want to do things and and how do we kind of reorganize it so I think this is going to happen over the next let's call it decade is you're going to have sort of this kind of great reconfiguration of the internet and and how the economics work how the attention flows how knowledge is shared how people produce things together collabor collaborate um how organizations interact over the internet. Um so it I don't know it feels and in a way that I I feel like mobile didn't have that kind of impact. Mobile obviously, you know, I think, you know, made the internet go from whatever 500 million to 5 billion people and increased engagement and a whole bunch of other things, you know, empowered people with all the information in their pocket had a lot of good effects. But this is something that's much more dramatic, I think, in the way it will it will reshape things and, you know, so I think there's a lot of also, you know, [clears throat] it'll be some somewhat painful for some, but I think it'll also be a lot of opportunity. On that note, just because we're talking about mobile, do you have any predictions or things you're excited about as it relates to computing or devices or or sort of form factor in which you know, ever since sort of the iPhone has been pretty pretty locked in. Are there new forms that you're you're particularly excited about or looking forward to?
### 从可穿戴设备到硬件自制 **>>**: 嗯，我的意思是，大家都在谈论可穿戴设备，我认为你非常明确会看到一堆……是的，在有了 AI 和语音之后，这似乎以一种之前没有的方式被解锁了。我认为那非常有趣。显然，那是已经被充分报道的事情。我一直以来长期相信 VR。我认为这只是一个达到合适形态的问题。你知道，仍然很重，你会出汗。很大程度上就是人体工程学问题。但你知道，这对我来说似乎很显而易见，正如对许多人和科幻作家及其他人一样：在有些时候，人们想要深度沉浸的、一种超脱尘世的体验。一旦达到合适的状态，我认为 AI 可能是解锁的关键，因为现在你可以创造这种惊人的内容，其实现在在 Twitter 上就能看到。比如有人刚刚自己一个人完成了《泰坦陨落》（Titanfall）的移植，这是一个不可思议的移植。我不知道它是否能在版权诉讼中存活下来，但人们会发明全新的东西，他们自己发明的东西。所以我想这就会掀起一股浪潮，因为以前要构建一个 VR 游戏或一个世界之类的东西，在技术上确实挺难的。所以我想你可能会看到这类老设备的复兴。 还有各种更疯狂的未来主义的东西正在发生，比如 Neuralink、脑机接口。显然还有交通工具，比如我们之前谈到的无人机，显然还有汽车，自动驾驶汽车已经很普及了。是的，我认为你会看到，我希望你会看到某种自制黑客（homebrew hacking）的复兴。从轶事上说，我看到很多这种情况，因为现在就像 Claude 可以为你设计一个 3D 打印外壳，你买一些廉价的主板，然后写一些定制的固件代码，接着就可以全速开干了。所以，也许我们会看到某种……就像大概十二年前、十五年前围绕 Makerbot 和所有这些创客（Maker）事物出现过的一种运动，但当时的问题就是它太难了。所以，那会很酷。我不知道还有什么。
Original English **>>**: Well, I mean, everyone's talking about wearables and I think you'll see a b you pretty clearly going to see a bunch of Yeah, that just seems like it's unlocked in a way that it wasn't before with AI and voice. Um, and I think that's very interesting. Obviously, that's something that's sort of well covered. I've like I've always long believed in VR. I think it's just a question of get getting to the right format. You know, still heavy, you kind of sweat it. Um, a lot of it's just ergonomics. Um, but you know, it just seems kind of obvious to me as it has to many people and science fiction writers and others that if you have, you know, there are times in which people want deeply immersive u, you know, kind of otherworldly experiences. Um, and once that gets to the right point, I think, you know, AI might be the unlock because now the you can create this amazing content that actually is seeing on Twitter now. Like someone just did a port of Titanfall and so like by himself and it's like this incredible port. I don't know if it's going to you know, survive copyright lawsuits, but people will invent new stuff um that that you know that they invented. Um and and so you know I think it will just sort of unlock this wave because it was really kind of technically hard to build a you know VR game um or a world or something. Um, so I think I think you might see like kind of the resurgence of older devices like that. Um, there's all this kind of more crazy futuristic stuff happening with like, you know, Neurolink, brain computer interfaces. Um, obviously vehicles, you know, like we talked earlier about drones and and obviously cars, self-driving cars are are widespread. Yeah, I think you'll see I'm hoping you'll see kind of this resurgence of kind of homebrew hacking. Um, uh, you know, I I anecdotally I've seen a lot of that because you can now like just Claude will design a a 3D printed case for you and you get some cheap motherboards and then you write some custom firmware code and like you're off to the races. And so, um, maybe we'll see kind of a like there was kind of a movement like 12 years ago, 15 years ago kind of around Makerbot and all these Maker things and but it was just the problem was just kind of hard. Yeah. So, you know, that would be cool. Uh I don't know what else.
### AI 赋能的制造与单人向多人模式演进 **>>**: 是的，我的意思是建筑，我有一个朋友，我不该说出名字，但他完成了一个全新的新建筑的完整建筑设计等等所有事情。你知道人们正在组装它，但整个事情都是由 AI 主导的。
Original English **>>**: Yeah, I mean architecture I have a friend I shouldn't name uh but uh done a complete architecture design everything for a new new building. Um and you know you know people are assembling it but like the whole thing is is being steered by AI.
**>>**: 是的。
Original English **>>**: Yeah.
**>>**: 我认为新模型有能力做到的，就是他们所说的面向制造的设计（design for manufacturing），即能够送往工厂的最终图纸和规范，这通常是制造过程中非常难做的一部分。我认为模型现在就能做到这一点了。所以，是的，我的意思是这都是很好的例子，说明这些在历史上对普通人或普通公司来说极度困难、让人望而却步或根本不可能的领域，突然之间变得很有可能完全就是轻而易举的事了。
Original English **>>**: Um uh I think the new models are capable of doing is what they call design for manufacturing the the the final diagrams and specs to be able to factory which is very hard to do normally part of the manufacturing process. I think the models can just do that now. Um and so um yeah, no I mean like this these these are great examples of this like these domains that historically have been extremely difficult or prohibitive or impossible for kind of either normal people or for normal companies to do all of a sudden become you know quite possibly you know possibly just straightforward.
**>>**: 是的。关于你的想法——你知道 AI 现在真正处于单人模式，而机器时代网络存在机会——值得多谈谈吗？
Original English **>>**: Yeah. Is it worth saying more about your idea that uh you know AI right now is in really in single player mode and there's opportunity you know for machine age networks.
**>>**: 当然。我的意思是，只是一个简单的想法，对吧，就是在互联网时代，大多数技术都经历过多重阶段，在第一阶段人们会构建一些东西，比如你最初早期的 iPhone 应用，或者像这些小手电筒以及其他简单的单人应用，你在手机上使用的东西，然后随着时间的推移，人们就会说，嘿，我们可以做一些更具社交性、协作性的事情。你知道，有了像 Uber 这样的发明，它算是一个商业网络；有了 Instagram，它是一个社交网络，等等。所以，当审视 AI 领域的现状时，人们可能会得出一个观察：尽管这一切都非常惊人，但大部分情况下你依然是坐在电脑前打字并得到回复。有一些很小的轻度分享功能，但在某个时刻，人们可能会期待迎来一个网络化的、多人的 AI 阶段。你在 Hugging Face 黑客攻击事件中也看到了，那里有一个群体（swarm），那显然是一个群体的负面用例。有没有正面的用例？你看，我认为群体也是解决某个数学定理的方法之一。
Original English **>>**: Sure. I mean um I mean just a simple idea right is that just you you know in the internet era most um uh most technologies have had sort of multiple phases where you sort of first people will build some like you have the initial early iPhone apps or like these little flashlights and other kinds of sort of simple single single player apps something you use on your phone um and then over time people sort of said hey what we could do some things that are more social collaborative um you know you had inventions like Uber which is sort of a commerce network. You had um you know Instagram which is a social network and so forth. Um so one one might one observation one might make when you're looking at the AI landscape as amazing as it all is, it's still mostly you're sitting in front of a computer and you're typing and getting responses. Um there's some like little minor light sharing features, but at some point one might expect to have um you know sort of a network a multiplayer phase of AI where where you know you see you see it also like in a hugging face hack. there's a swarm that's obviously a bad a negative use case of a swarm. Are there positive use? You know, you also saw I think a swarm is one of the things that solve the one of the math theorems.
**>>**: 你知道，你可以想象这样一个世界，在那里——群体的另一个词是，协同的代理人机队（fleet of agents）之类的，对吧？所以你可以想象很多用例，解决一个难题、设计一座建筑、取得某种科学突破，那可能就是合……
Original English **>>**: You know, you can imagine a world where there's, you know, another word for swarm is a, you know, collaborative fleet of agents or something, right? And so like you can imagine lots of use cases where solving a hard problem, designing a building, you know, doing some kind of scientific breakthrough, uh you might might that might be the the right
### 现代炼金术与学科变革 方式。你还会看到，比如我认为 Muse 和 Instinct 就具备这些功能，你可以去信任其他人，你可以想象这会演变成一种信任网络。所以如果你眯起眼睛看，你看到的是这方面的早期迹象，而且我认为人们现在只是处于一种实验阶段，但仅基于历史以及这些产品的可能性，它看起来对创业者来说可能是一个肥沃的领域。但顺便说一句，我们已经提到过，我们聊了一点教育，以及通过这项技术所促成的学习机会。我很好奇，显然我们刚刚孵化了 Haritz and Academy。谢谢你们对此的支持。如果你今天 18 岁，你会怎么考虑自己可能去学什么？显然，你有学术哲学背景。
Original English way to do it. You also see like I think Muse and Instinct have these features where you can like trust other people and you can imagine that sort of evolves into a trust network. So if you kind of squint you're seeing the early signs of this um and I think people are you know just kind of an experimental phase but it just based on on you know history and what might you know the kind of the possibilities of these products it seems like it might be a fertile area for entrepreneurs. But by the way, we've alluded, we talked a bit bit about sort of the uh education and just, you know, the learning uh opportunities that are enabled via this technology. I'm I'm curious, you know, obviously we just uh you know, uh incubated Haritz and Academy. Um thank you for for your support on it. If if you were 18 today, um how would you think about what you might uh study? Obviously, you have, you know, academic uh philosophy background.
**>>**: 我想我是借用了马克的话，但我觉得你会认为只有一件事可做，那就是学习现代炼金术，对吧？
Original English **>>**: Um I think I'm stealing Mark's line, but I think you think there's one thing to do, which is study modern alchemy, right?
**>>**: 对。对。对。对。说吧。说吧。
Original English **>>**: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Go for it. Go for it.
**>>**: 人类搞……这是马克的想法，马克的构想方式，但我意思是，人类刚刚弄明白了如何把沙子变成智能。我认为学习这个的途径是数学、计算机科学，也许还有经济学，我不知道。而且很显然，我认为这也是——像我和本还有马克都足够幸运，我们职业生涯的很大一部分都发生在互联网的成长时期。我觉得那很……我感到非常幸运能够经历那一切。我认为那是前人遗赠给我的东西，我对他们充满感激。而且我认为现在很明显，我们现在讨论的 AI 相关的这些东西，将成为未来 20 年、30 年的主导叙事。所以我觉得身处其中——不一定完全纯粹搞技术，但在某种程度上参与其中、处于最前沿并使用这些工具，感觉像是，对，
Original English **>>**: Well, humans fig is Mark's idea, Mark's framing, but I mean, humans just figured out how to turn sand into intelligence. And the way to learn that, I think, is math, computer science, maybe economics, I don't know. And um and it's, you know, obvious look, I think it's also like like I I and I think Ben and Mark were lucky enough to have our, you know, a lot of our careers uh happen during the growth of the internet. And I think that was I feel very fortunate that I was able to do that. you know, I think that was something bequeathed to me by by people before me and that was I'm grateful to them. Um, and you know, I think now, look, it's obvious that, you know, um, that that the AI stuff we're talking about now is going to be the dominant narrative of the next 20, 30 years. Um, so I think being and it doesn't have to, you don't have to necessarily be solely technical, but I think being in some way uh, in that in the mix and at the cutting edge and sort of using these tools feels like Yeah,
**>>**: 算是显而易见该做的事。我不知道你怎么看。
Original English **>>**: kind of the the obvious thing to do. I don't know what you
**>>**: 是的，我认为很多其他领域也都会被彻底变革，对吧？我是说，古典学领域正在经历变革，因为现在有了赫库兰尼姆卷轴项目（vuvia scroll project），你可以利用 AI 去解读那些烧焦发黑的卷轴，并且——
Original English **>>**: Yeah, I think I think a lot of other fields are going to be revolutionized, right? So I mean just you know the field field of the classics is being revolutionized because now you've got the vuvia scroll project and you're like able to use like AI to like decipher like dark scrolls and
**>>**: 你知道，可能会有全新的哲学流派被发现，用来研究古典学，那些失传的书卷。
Original English **>>**: you know there may be entire new schools of philosophy that get you know discovered to study classics you know things you know lost lost books
**>>**: 还有经济学，我刚才正和一个经济学教授吃午饭，整个经济学领域都将围绕这个发生转变。还有生物学。
Original English **>>**: um economics uh I just having lunch with an economics professor and like the whole field of economics going to be is going to be transformed around this um and biology
**>>**: 生物学，对，完全正确，直接发现。顺便说一句，设计也是，我们谈到了电影，但广义上的设计、各种形式的创造力，所有形式的艺术、音乐。
Original English **>>**: biology yeah exactly direct discovery design by the way design you know we talk about movies but also just broadly broadly design creativity of all kinds all all the all the all the forms of art music
**>>**: 动物学，你将能听懂动物在说什么。
Original English **>>**: zoologology you're going to know what the animals are saying
**>>**: 这超级有趣，我们貌似真的正在走向一个能够听懂动物在说什么的世界，对吧。
Original English **>>**: this is super interesting like we are plausibly heading towards a world in which we're going to understand what the animals are saying right um
**>>**: 动物心理学将真正成为现实。
Original English **>>**: animal psychology will be actually real
**>>**: 是啊，所以比如训狗，当你想真正理解狗在说什么的时候，训狗将进入一个全新的境界，对吧。我想针对这个还有一个 X 大奖呢。[笑声] 我是认真的，这就像一个……这就像一个……
Original English **>>**: yeah so like okay like dog you know I don't know like dog you know dog training is going to take on a whole new thing when you actually understand what the what the the dog is saying right I think there's an X- prize for that [laughter] I'm serious it's like a it's like a
**>>**: [笑声]
Original English **>>**: [laughter]
**>>**: 它们绝对……我的意思是任何养狗的人都知道它们会说话。虽然是用某种奇怪的语言，但它们绝对在表达些什么，猫当然也是如此。
Original English **>>**: And they're they're definitely I mean anybody has a dog know they talk. They're in some weird language, you know, but but they they definitely are saying something and certainly cats do. Um
**>>**: 我等着正在听这期节目的创业者拿着商业计划书找上门来。
Original English **>>**: I wait the entrepreneur listening to this who uh you comes in with a pitch.
### 代际认知与确定性乐观 **>>**: 完全会。完全会。另外，在考虑 18 岁年轻人或小孩这方面，道格拉斯·亚当斯（写《银河系漫游指南》的那位）曾对技术在代际层面上如何被接受给出了最经典的描述。他著名的框架是：任何新技术在三个不同的年龄群体中会受到三种不同的对待。如果你在 15 岁以下，这就是世界运转的自然法则。我在其他场合讲过在孩子七岁时向他介绍 ChatGPT 的故事。我说，这可是件大事，因为计算机能回答问题了。他的反应是，废话，不能回答问题的计算机还有什么用，对吧？所以这对他们来说就是稀松平常。
Original English **>>**: Totally. Totally. Um and then um uh um yeah, the the other way I think about it Yeah. in terms of like Yeah. thinking about like 18-year-olds or kids is um Douglas Adams had like the defining description uh of um the guy who wrote Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy of like how technology is received on a generational level and his his famous framework was there's there any new technology is received three different ways by three different age cohorts. If you're um if you're u below the age of 15, it's just the natural way the world works. Um, and I I've told in other settings the story of introducing my kid to Chat GPT at age seven. And I'm like, you know, this is such a big deal because the computer answers questions. And he's like, duh. Like, what good is a computer that doesn't answer questions, right? Um, uh, so it's just normal.
**>>**: 如果你处于 15 到 35 岁之间，它就是新鲜、令人兴奋且热门的领域，你也许能以此谋得一份职业，在这种情况下你想去学习所有的新东西。而如果你超过 35 岁，它就是大逆不道和邪恶的，并且肯定会颠覆所有现有结构并毁灭社会。
Original English **>>**: Uh, if you're between the ages of 15 to 35, it's new, exciting, and hot, you know, hot field, and you might be able to make a career out of it, in which case you want to learn all the all the new things. And if you're above the age of 35, it's unholy and evil, uh, and will surely, you know, overturn all existing structures and destroy society.
**>>**: 我绝不接电话。没错。没错。“老人对着云朵怒吼”是一种反复出现的现象。
Original English **>>**: I'll never answer the telephone. Exactly. Exactly. Old old men yell at cloud is a is a recurring recurring phenomenon.
**>>**: 所以我认为现在的 18 岁年轻人——说到去抓住这些新能力并顺势而飞，现在正是黄金时代。而且这将会创造出全新的领域——
Original English **>>**: And so I I think 18-year-olds right now I mean it's a talk about prime time to to to gra to grab these new capabilities and run with them. Um um and you know the create like look it's going to be creation of entirely new fields
**>>**: 包括创业、创造力、艺术等所有领域。再看看比这更小的孩子，我在我孩子身上就看得到，对他们而言，拥有这种能力是理所当然的，这完全是不言而喻的。其实学校反而在帮我们的忙，学校对这方面的应对并不好，学校在禁用 AI，或者因为 AI 搞出各种争议，但对于小孩子来说，这反而让它显得更酷了。
Original English **>>**: uh of entrepreneurship and creativity and art and everything. Um and then look I mean I think kids younger than that I'm seeing with my my kid but like yeah they're just it's just of course you have this capability like of course you do. It's just like completely obvious. Um well and and actually the schools the schools are doing us a favor like so the the schools are not responding well to this um and so you know the schools are you know banning AI or having all these you know controversies with it but of course if you're a kid that just makes it cooler.
**>>**: 是的。
Original English **>>**: Yeah.
**>>**: 没错。所以 AI 会变成你秘密的超能力，你必须绞尽脑汁去琢磨怎么利用它。所以我认为孩子们对于自己要做的事情会有各种各样的想法。
Original English **>>**: Right. And so a AI is going to be like the you know AI is your like secret superpower um that you have to like deviously figure out how to take advantage of. Um and so I think kids are going to have all kinds of ideas for what they're going to do.
**>>**: 这很有趣，因为成年人总是在说，哦，孩子们该怎么办呢？当个小孩子太难了。事实就像是，“不，不，不，不。”基本上，有问题的是你，因为你过时了。孩子们全都会变成超人，他们将无所不能，世界向他们敞开，他们将能够进入以前从未能涉足的领域。
Original English **>>**: It's funny because adults keep saying oh what should the kids do? Like this so hard to be a kid. It's like, "No, no, no, no." Like, basically, it's you that's got the problem cuz you're obsolete. The kids are going to be all superhumans and they're going to be able to do anything and the world is open to them and they're going to, you know, they're they're going to be able to enter fields that they could never enter before.
**>>**: 我在这场对话中、在你们的基金以及更广泛的工作中所看到的，借用另一个彼得·蒂尔式的术语（Tism），就是一种确定性的乐观主义（definite optimism）。未来正在发生。它注定会发生。我们谈论的很多科幻场景都将成真，这只是时间问题，所以我们要尽早下注，也许有时会下注过早，但我们会继续下注，只要一直保持这种信念，事情最终都会解决的。
Original English **>>**: What I see in this conversation and in your fund and your work more generally is to use another Tism kind of definite optimism. The the future is happening. It it's going to happen. uh you know a lot of the what science we talked about science fiction is going to happen it's a matter of when and so we're going to bet early and as and maybe sometimes it be too early but we're going to keep betting and as long as you you know keep keep having that conviction uh you know it's it's going to work out.
**>>**: 是的。是的。需要说明的是，我想澄清的一点是，我们抛出了所有这些理论等等，但最终，我想正如本在开头所说的，我们做的是押注优秀创业者的业务。所以——
Original English **>>**: Yeah. Yeah. And to be clear, it's one thing I want to clarify is that, you know, we're throwing out all these theories and everything, but in [snorts] the end, I think as Ben said in the beginning, like we're we're in the betting on great entrepreneurs business. And so,
**>>**: 今天还有大量没有被讨论到的想法，它们可能更有趣、更有创意。如果出于某种原因，它们不适合我们机构的其他核心领域，我们心态是开放的，并且愿意参与这些有创意的想法。所以，针对你说的确定性乐观主义，我想说是乐观主义，但我也会说是谦逊的确定性乐观主义之类的。在求知上保持谦逊。是的。因为我犯过太多次错误了，所以我们只是真心想要找到那些拥有自己确定性乐观的优秀人才，并支持他们。
Original English **>>**: um, you know, we any plenty of ideas that were not discussed today that are probably, you know, more interesting and more creative. um if if for whatever reason they don't fit in the in the other kind of core areas at our firm, like we're open-minded and and willing to, you know, to engage with those kinds of creative ideas. So, um so I would say you said definite optimism. I'm like optimism, but also I would say humble definite optimism or something. Intellectually humble. Yeah. and that I've been wrong so many times that uh we just we really want to we want to find great people who have their own definite optimist and back them.
**>>**: 创业者负责保持乐观。
Original English **>>**: The entrepreneurs get to be optimistic.
**>>**: 对。是的。
Original English **>>**: Yeah. Yep.
**>>**: 这是一个很好的总结点。克里斯，谢谢你们来参加播客。
Original English **>>**: That's a great place to wrap. Chris, thank you guys for coming on the podcast.
**>>**: 很好。谢谢你们。
Original English **>>**: Good. Thank you.
**>>**: 好的。行。谢谢。
Original English **>>**: All right. Okay. Thank you.