--- author: New York Times Podcasts date: '2026-10-14' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVz46V_2yrc speaker: New York Times Podcasts tags: - energy-sanctions - geopolitics - russia-ukraine-war - foreign-policy title: 制裁围堵下的反转：美俄柴油交易内幕与乌克兰地缘博弈 summary: 在经历了数年严厉制裁后，特朗普政府突然宣布恢复从俄罗斯购买数十万吨柴油并暂缓相关制裁，旨在平抑中期选举前高企的国内能源价格。此举在华盛顿政界、欧洲盟友和乌克兰激起轩然大波，揭示出白宫对俄战略从“促和交换”转向“提前利益输送”的关键转向，以及错综复杂的政商利益纽带。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: geopolitics area: geopolitics project: [] people: - Donald Trump - Vladimir Putin - Volodymyr Zelensky companies_orgs: - Lukoil products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 美俄突发柴油交易冲击波 **Natalie Kitroeff**: 欢迎收听《纽约时报》的《The Daily》节目。我是 **Natalie Kitroeff**。在对俄罗斯石油和天然气实施了多年的美国制裁之后，**Donald Trump** 总统刚刚宣布了一项重大协议：美国将从俄罗斯购买价值数十亿美元的柴油。特朗普坚称此举将有效拉低燃油价格，但这彻底震惊了美国的盟国以及华盛顿的国会议员，他们纷纷警告称，美国政府实际上是在给 **Vladimir Putin** 递上一条关键的生命线。今天，我的同事 **Anton Troyanowski** 将为我们剖析，这项交易究竟揭示了特朗普对俄战略发生了怎样的转变，以及它究竟能在多大程度上真正帮到美国普通消费者。今天是10月14日，星期三。Anton，欢迎回到《The Daily》，我们非常高兴你能来。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: From the New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroeff. This is The Daily. After years of American sanctions on Russian oil and gas, President Trump has just announced a deal in which the United States would buy billions of dollars in diesel from Russia. Trump claimed the move would lower fuel prices, but it stunned US allies and lawmakers in Washington who warned that the American government was handing Putin a lifeline. Today, my colleague Anton Troyanowski explains what the deal reveals about Trump's changing strategy with Russia and how much it could actually help American consumers. It's Wednesday, October 14th. Anton, welcome back to The Daily. We love having you here.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 很高兴来到这里。谢谢你，Natalie。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Good to be here. Thank you, Natalie.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 那么，就在上周五，我们得知美国政府正在彻底扭转实行了数年之久的美国既定政策，准备采购俄罗斯的柴油。而过去美国之所以一直坚决不买，是因为各界都明确指出，那些资金将直接注入并支撑俄罗斯的战争机器。现在我们却被告知，这一切全都是为了降低国内的汽油与燃油价格。我认为，这个消息在全球范围内引起了极大的震撼。你能不能先从宏观层面给我们讲讲，这件事的影响到底有多重大？
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: So, on Friday, we learned that the American government is now reversing years of US policy and is going to be buying Russian diesel, which is something that the US had not been doing because we were told that money could fund Russia's war machine. And we learned that all this is in service of lowering gas prices at home. This news was received, I think, as a total shock around the world. Can you just start by saying how big of a deal this actually is?
**Anton Troyanowski**: 是的，毫无疑问。上周五曝出的消息绝对是一个令人目瞪口呆的彻底逆转。因为这可是由美国总统亲自出面宣布：“我们已经与俄罗斯达成协议，俄方将立即向美国及全球市场供应30万吨柴油，随后还将供应更多批次。”而且，他甚至完全没有说明这是否属于旨在缓和这场已经持续四年半、造成数十万人丧生的乌克兰战争的大揽子和平协议的一部分。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Yeah, absolutely. So Friday's news was a really stunning reversal because it was the president saying, "We have agreed with Russia that the Russians will immediately supply 300,000 tons of diesel to US and world markets and even more after that," without even saying that this was part of some kind of broader deal to deescalate this war in Ukraine that's now gone on for 4 and 1/2 years and killed hundreds of thousands of people.
### 从竞选诺言到经贸筹码的碰壁 **Natalie Kitroeff**: 好的。那么这到底是怎么发生的？Anton，请为我们梳理一下，我们究竟是如何走到这一步的。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Okay. So, how did this happen? Anton, lay out for me how exactly we got here.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 好吧，让我们一路回溯到2024年的大选竞选时期。你一定还记得，特朗普当时的核心竞选承诺之一就是结束乌克兰战争。他甚至公开扬言自己能在24小时内解决这个问题。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Well, let's go all the way back to the 2024 election campaign. You remember one of Trump's main campaign promises was to end the war in Ukraine. He said he was going to do it in 24 hours.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 但那并没有发生。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: That did not happen.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 那确实完全没有实现。不过，特朗普的好友、如今担任中东及特使的 **Steve Witkoff**，早在2025年2月就开始频繁前往俄罗斯，与普京会面，并与其他俄罗斯高级官员深入探讨试图结束战争的途径。而美方外交路线的一个核心支柱，就是不断向俄罗斯推销各类商业合作与商业交易。美方的基本逻辑和论调是：看啊，只要这场战争能够彻底结束，我们彼此就能携手做很多了不起的合作，两国都可以借此大发横财。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: That did not happen. But Trump's friend and now peace envoy Steve Witkoff started early on in February of 2025 regularly going to Russia, meeting with Putin, speaking to other Russian officials about trying to end the war. And one primary prong of the US approach has been talking about business deals with Russia. Basically making the argument that look, if only this war was over, we could do all these great things together and our countries could make lots of money.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 本质上就是说：“让我们结束这场战争吧，大家都能从中赚取巨额利润。”
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Essentially, let's end this war and we can all profit off of that.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 没错，完全就是这个逻辑。但核心问题在于，这套说辞对普京根本不起作用。经济利益固然重要，但普京发动乌克兰战争的目的显然不是为了多赚几个钱。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Exactly. But the problem was that didn't work for Putin. Economics matter, but he clearly didn't start this war in Ukraine to make more money.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 确实如此。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Right.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 普京真正在乎的是领土。他渴望夺取更多乌克兰东部被称为**顿巴斯**（Donbas）的地区。普京在乎的是在战事尘埃落定之后，他对乌克兰剩余国土究竟能维持何种程度的政治控制。此外，他真正在意的是极其宏大的地缘政治议题：俄罗斯与北大西洋公约组织（**NATO**）未来的战略关系走向如何？西方军队将部署在欧洲各处的哪些防线上？在普京眼中，这是一整套错综复杂的地缘万花筒体系，而单纯的经贸利益充其量只占其中极小的一部分。因此，美方企图在普京眼前抛出商业红利这根胡萝卜、以此诱使他在战略核心利益上让步的努力，一直以来根本没有结出任何实质性成果。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: What Putin cares about is territory. He wants more of the eastern Ukrainian region called the Donbas. What Putin cares about is the kind of control he'll be able to exercise over the rest of Ukraine after the war ends. And what he cares about are these big geopolitical issues of what does the future relationship between Russia and NATO look like? Where are Western troops located in different parts of Europe? It's this big kaleidoscope of issues for Putin of which economics are really just a part. And as a result, this effort of dangling deals in front of Putin with the hope that this will get him to compromise has not borne fruit.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 嗯，可以理解。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Mhm.
### 能源危机与炼油厂空袭 **Anton Troyanowski**: 随后，情况变得更加复杂——今年二月爆发了**伊朗战争**，全球能源价格随之剧烈飙升，局势由此变得越发棘手。俄罗斯作为全球举足轻重、数一数二的石油与天然气出口大国，地缘能源的震荡瞬间赋予了普京一套崭新的战略博弈手牌。这彻底改变了美俄潜在能源谈判的底层逻辑。因为情势陡转，眼下反倒是美国自身在急不可耐地四处寻找给飙升的能源价格降温的解药。尤其在当下**中期选举**（Midterm Elections）日益临近的关键当口，美国普通消费者在加油站感受到的刺痛，随时都可能在选票箱中转化为对执政党的惩罚。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Then layer on top of that the fact that the Iran war starts in February of this year and that makes things even more complicated in part by raising energy prices around the world. Russia, of course, is one of the world's biggest exporters of both oil and gas. And that gives Putin new cards to play, which puts these negotiations about potential energy deals with the Russians into a different light because suddenly it's now the US that's looking for ways to lower energy prices. And especially right now as we have these midterm elections coming up, you might start to see that pain that American consumers are feeling translate into votes.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 确实如此。所以你看到本届政府正在绞尽脑汁、想方设法去逆转燃油价格的暴涨。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Exactly. So you see the administration thinking about all kinds of ways to try to reverse this spike in fuel prices.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 与此同时，乌克兰战场的冲突也正在剧烈升级。乌克兰方面宣称，俄罗斯实施了今年以来伤亡最为惨重的一次空袭，造成至少33名平民丧生。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: And then at the same time, you have the Ukraine war escalating. Ukraine says Russia has carried out its deadliest attack of the year. At least 33 people were killed.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 俄罗斯重点袭击了一处乌克兰发电厂，战事正演变得越发血腥。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Russia attacked a Ukrainian power plant. The war getting bloodier.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 尤其是针对乌克兰核心民生基础设施的持续打击。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: In particular, Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 而乌克兰则以打击俄罗斯境内的炼油厂作为直接报复。现场最新画面显示，距离克里姆林宫仅10英里的某处炼油厂发生剧烈爆炸，浓黑的滚滚浓烟直冲云霄。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Ukraine responding by hitting Russian oil refineries. New video shows massive explosions and thick smoke pouring from an oil refinery just 10 miles from the Kremlin.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 在某些阶段，乌军精准打击甚至迫使俄罗斯将近一半的炼油产能陷入瘫痪停摆状态。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: At some point, they get something like half of Russian oil refining capacity offline.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 大火彻底中断了炼油生产，使俄罗斯本已紧绷脆弱的石油基础设施雪上加霜。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: The blaze halted production, putting more pressure on the country's already strained oil infrastructure.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 俄罗斯国内的加油站甚至一度排起了等待加油的长队，以至于莫斯科不得不在今年7月紧急出台了针对柴油的全面出口禁令。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: And there were gas lines at Russian gas stations and Russia had to implement an export ban for diesel this past July.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 这意味着，如果俄罗斯全面禁止柴油出口，全球市场上的柴油供应就会大幅缩水，从而推高全球各地的燃油价格。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Meaning if Russia is banning exports, there's less diesel in the global market and so prices presumably go up again.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 是的，一点没错。因此，特朗普政府开始全力向乌克兰方面施加巨大外交压力，要求基辅停止袭击俄罗斯的炼油厂。但乌克兰方面的回应非常明确：他们完全乐意停止攻击，前提是这必须是一项双方同时停止打击对方能源基础设施的双向协议。你看，乌克兰人一直表示：“只要俄罗斯停止轰炸我们的能源电网，我们随时愿意停止打击俄罗斯炼油厂。”然而，俄罗斯根本没有停止打击。尽管如此，美国政府依然持续对基辅施压。显然，总统及白宫高级官员对于乌克兰拒绝单方面停止空袭炼油厂感到极度沮丧和不满。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Yeah, that's right. And so the Trump administration has tried to push the Ukrainians to stop those attacks on Russian refineries. And the Ukrainians have responded that they're happy to do so if it's part of a mutual cessation of strikes on each other's energy infrastructure. Right? So, the Ukrainians have been saying, "Yes, we are willing to stop hitting Russian oil refineries if the Russians stop hitting our energy infrastructure." And that hasn't happened. Nevertheless, the administration has continued to put pressure on the Ukrainians, and there has clearly been frustration on the part of the president and top officials in the administration that the Ukrainians haven't agreed to unilaterally stop those refinery strikes.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 换言之，一味对乌克兰施压并没有收到任何效果。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: So, leaning on Ukraine doesn't work.
### 白宫对俄战略的急剧转向 **Anton Troyanowski**: 完全正确。因此，随着特朗普政府对乌克兰的不满与日俱增，我们也看到了他们对俄罗斯的处理策略发生了实质性的位移。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Correct. So, as we've seen this Trump administration frustration with Ukraine increase, we've also seen their approach to Russia shift.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 具体体现在商业交易的策略转变上。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Specifically on this question of business deals.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 此前，特朗普总统曾明确表态：“我们非常乐意同俄罗斯展开经贸合作，但前提是必须等到战争彻底画上句号。”
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: So, previously, President Trump had said, "We're happy to do business with Russia, but only once the war ends."
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 对，这是之前的立场。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Right.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 然而，根据我们最近几个月掌握的独家报道，美方传递的信息已经发生了演变：在战争结束之前，我们也愿意积极考虑与俄罗斯达成具体的经贸交易。因为白宫内部负责这项事务的官员们深切担忧，普京和克里姆林宫高层根本不相信特朗普政府是真的准备改弦更张、同俄罗斯建立一种新型的友好合作关系。所以这里的真实意图在于，特朗普政府希望向俄方释放极其清晰无误的信号：我们对于合作能带来的丰厚回报是无比严肃认真的；看吧，这就是未来合作的光景，这对你们来说将是不可思议的重大利好。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Now. In recent months, according to our reporting, the message has evolved to we are willing to consider deals with Russia before the end of the war. Because one of the things that folks in the administration who are working on this are worried about is that Putin and the Kremlin might not believe that the Trump administration is really ready to change course and enter into a new kind of more friendly relationship with Russia. The idea here is that the Trump administration wants to signal very clearly to the Russians, we are serious about the rewards of cooperating with us. This is what it could look like. This is how good it could be for you.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 换句话说，直接摆出明晃晃的诱人前景。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Yes, precisely.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 正因如此，在过去的短短几个月内，白宫负责俄乌战事的核心特使 **Jared Kushner** 和 **Steve Witkoff** 开始更加实质性地与俄罗斯官员直接洽谈各类潜在的大额商业合作项目。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: So that's why even just in the last couple months, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, the main envoys for the Russia Ukraine war in the White House, have been speaking to the Russians more seriously about potential business deals.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 听起来，所有的历史线条都在此刻汇聚交织到了一起：结束乌克兰战争的外交努力、达成该目标的战略路径演变、由于伊朗战争导致的全球能源危机，以及迫在眉睫的中期选举。所有这些重压几乎在同一时间集中爆发。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: So it sounds like everything is converging in this moment. The effort to end the war in Ukraine, the evolving strategy about how to do that, the energy crisis as a result of the Iran war and the midterms. All this is coming to a head at the same time.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 确实如此。这就把我们带回到了上周五在佛罗里达州迈阿密郊外的一座名为 **Shell Bay** 的奢华高尔夫度假村，该产业正是史蒂夫·威特科夫名下的产业。当时，威特科夫与贾里德·库什纳正在那里与特意乘机赶来的欧洲及乌克兰高级官员举行新一轮战事会谈。就在上周五那场会议刚开场不久，美方代表就抛出了一个令在场的欧洲人和乌克兰人目瞪口呆的爆炸性通报：特朗普总统即将正式公布一项与俄罗斯达成的重磅交易——美方将解除针对俄罗斯柴油的制裁禁令。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Yes. And that brings us to Friday in Florida outside Miami at a golf resort called Shell Bay, owned by Steve Witkoff. Witkoff and Jared Kushner were meeting with senior officials from Europe and from Ukraine who had flown in for another round of talks about the war. And early on in that meeting on Friday, the Americans made an announcement that stunned the Europeans and the Ukrainians. President Trump was about to reveal a deal with Russia to lift sanctions on Russian diesel.
### 闪电协议与盟友的震怒 **Anton Troyanowski**: 几个小时后，这项交易便得到了官方确认。特朗普与普京通了电话，随后便在他的 **Truth Social** 社交账号上发文高调宣布。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: That became official a few hours later. Trump spoke on the phone with Putin and then on his Truth Social account said:
**Natalie Kitroeff**: “唐纳德·特朗普总统宣称，他已达成一项从俄罗斯获取柴油的协议。”
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: President Donald Trump says he struck a deal to obtain diesel from Russia.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 特朗普声称他与普京进行了一场“极其成功的富有成效的对话”。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: He had had a highly successful discussion with Putin.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: “俄罗斯将立即供应超过30万吨的柴油燃料。”
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel fuel.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 普京同意立即向全球市场供应30万吨柴油，紧接着在11月份还将供应50万吨。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: That Putin had agreed to supply 300,000 tons of diesel to the world immediately. Another 500,000 tons during the month of November.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 并且在接下来的数月内，根据俄罗斯炼油厂的恢复状况，可能还会提供数百万吨柴油。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: And potentially millions more in the coming months depending on the state of Russian oil refineries.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 与此同时，美国财政部（**Treasury Department**）也发布了一份正式声明，实质上是临时暂停了对俄罗斯柴油的制裁措施。这意味着，不仅美国政府自身将直接采买俄罗斯柴油，美方还明确向外界表明，它绝不会因为其他国家或第三方企业购买俄罗斯柴油而施加任何制裁惩治。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: And at the same time, the Treasury Department put out a statement that was basically temporarily suspending sanctions on Russian diesel. Meaning, not only is the US going to buy diesel from Russia, the US government is also saying it's not going to punish anyone else for buying diesel from Russia.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 也就是说，所有人现在全都可以自由购买俄罗斯柴油了。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Everyone can do it now.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 毫无疑问，正是如此。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: That's right.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 好的，这无疑是美国外交政策的一次惊天大掉头（U-turn）。乌克兰对此作何反应？因为这看起来完全就是美国在主动放弃其对俄罗斯施加的关键战略筹码——即动员国际社会切断其能源收入、削弱其战争机器。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Okay, that seems like a major U-turn for US foreign policy. How did Ukraine react to all this? Cuz it definitely seems like it's the US throwing out its big point of leverage on Russia, which is to have the world starve its war machine of oil revenue.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 乌克兰总统 **Volodymyr Zelensky** 随即对此予以严厉抨击，直斥该交易是对一场本必须结束的战争的“战争投资”。泽连斯基的首波反应之一，就是痛斥这是一个极度懦弱的决定。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky slammed the decision, labeling the deal as an investment in a war that must— Yeah. One of the first reactions was President Zelensky saying this was a weak decision.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 而特朗普则回应道：“好吧，我有着截然不同的看法。泽连斯基原本有无数次机会可以通过谈判结束这场战争，很多很多次！”整个周末，泽连斯基与特朗普之间爆发了激烈的新一轮公开骂战。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: "Well, I look at it differently. Zelensky could have settled this war many times. Many, many times." And you actually then had this new back and forth spat between Zelensky and Trump play out over the weekend.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 特朗普甚至公开声称：“我建议他们换一个能谈成交易的新领导人，因为他本来可以达成许多协议，却不知为何从未这么做。”整个欧洲大陆同样笼罩在深重的震惊之中。因为直到目前为止，美国在对俄制裁政策上一直维持着强硬姿态，并在诸多防务领域继续向乌克兰提供坚实援助。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: "I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal because he could have made many deals and for some reason he never—" And there was shock across Europe also because really up until now the US had really stayed tough in terms of sanctions policy toward Russia and had also continued supporting Ukraine in many ways.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 确实。欧洲等地的政府官员长期以来一直忧心忡忡，担心特朗普可能会对俄罗斯采取怀柔姑息态度，谋求更紧密的美俄私人与国家关系，但此前这些担忧在行动上并未全面成真。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Right. Officials in Europe and elsewhere had long feared that Trump might take a softer approach to Russia, might pursue a closer relationship, but that hadn't happened yet.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 是的。我们必须退一步纵观全局，看清一个基本事实：尽管外界此前对特朗普在乌克兰和俄罗斯问题上的作为充满了极度忧虑，但在过去一段时期内，特朗普政府实际上大体沿袭了拜登时期的诸多核心既定政策，无论是持续向乌克兰的军事行动提供至关重要的军事情报支持，还是维持现有的全面制裁框架。事实上，美方甚至扩大了制裁范围。就在一年前，该政府还对俄罗斯石油工业推出了极其严厉的新一轮打击方案。就在几周前，特朗普还签署了国会两党以压倒性优势通过的全面法案，授权对俄罗斯实施更具威慑力的大规模新制裁，尤其是针对俄罗斯的核心能源部门。因此，尽管此次购买俄罗斯柴油的交易规模相对有限，但这仍然释放出了一个极其确凿明确的信号：华盛顿现政府已经下定决心在实质层面全面重构对俄关系，而这极有可能是以牺牲乌克兰的根本利益为代价的。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Yeah. I mean, it's important to step back and sort of see that despite all the worries of what Trump might do vis-a-vis Ukraine and Russia, the Trump administration really kept a lot of the Biden era policies in place, whether it's in terms of providing intelligence support to Ukraine's war effort and keeping the sanctions in place, in fact, expanding the sanctions. A year ago, the administration put in place really tough new sanctions against Russia's oil industry. And just a few weeks ago, Trump signed a bipartisan bill out of Congress that allowed for new sweeping sanctions against Russia and especially Russian energy. So this move on Russian diesel, even though the numbers are relatively small, is still the most concrete sign that this administration in Washington is ready to really substantively change its relationship with Russia and to do so potentially at Ukraine's expense.
### “美国优先”辩解与市场微弱降幅 **Natalie Kitroeff**: 我们稍后马上回来。好的，Anton。显而易见，许多国家都被这个重磅消息严重动摇了。对于美国政策的这一百八十度急转弯，特朗普政府究竟拿出了怎样的辩护理由？
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: We'll be right back. All right, Anton. Obviously, a lot of countries are quite shaken by this news. What is the Trump administration's defense of this U-turn in American policy?
**Anton Troyanowski**: 归结起来有这么几点。首先，关于购买柴油这件事，你从他们口中听到的必然是**“美国优先”**（America First）的论调。他们会宣称这是在生活成本高企的艰难时刻保护美国普通消费者与美国农场主的根本利益。同时他们还会指责称，欧洲其实从未真正中断购买俄罗斯能源，在某种程度上这确实是事实：欧洲目前仍在大量进口俄罗斯的**液化天然气**（LNG）；尤其是像斯洛伐克和匈牙利这样的内陆中欧国家，仍在持续通过管道采买俄罗斯的原油。当然，欧盟已经极其显著地削弱了对俄罗斯能源的依赖度，并且已经制定了在明年彻底终结进口俄罗斯天然气的宏伟路线图。因此在这点上，欧美双方的发展轨迹显然正在分道扬镳。此外，白宫内部人士还会争辩称，特朗普依然在坚定不移地寻求以某种方式结束乌克兰战争。当然，我们必须指出，这种转变不仅令欧洲盟友深感不安，令民主党人震惊，在相当一部分共和党建制派内部同样引发了极其强烈的抵触与不适。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Well, a few things. I mean, on buying diesel, I think what you'll hear is this is America first. This is taking care of American consumers, American farmers at a time when they're struggling. They will also say that Europe has continued to buy Russian energy and to some extent that's true. Europe is still buying Russian liquified natural gas. Landlocked countries, in particular, Slovakia and Hungary, are still buying Russian oil. Now, the EU has drastically reduced its reliance on Russian energy and is actually planning to completely end Russian gas imports by next year. So, here we're definitely moving in opposite directions. I think folks in the administration, they'd also say that Trump is still set on somehow ending the war in Ukraine. Of course, we should also say this is something that is deeply uncomfortable, not just for American allies in Europe, not just for even Democrats, but also many Republicans.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 好吧。那么如果推行该政策的核心“美国优先”论据是购买俄罗斯柴油能有效降低美国老百姓在加油机上的燃油开支，这是事实吗？打开天窗说亮话，这到底能在多大程度上真正降低美国的油价？
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: All right. So if the America first argument for this policy is that buying Russian diesel will lower prices at the pump for Americans, is that true? Like brass tacks, how much will this actually lower gas prices in the United States?
**Anton Troyanowski**: 实际影响可以说是微乎其微。我是说，我们目前谈论的首批规模不过是向全球市场额外注入区区30万吨俄罗斯柴油，这甚至还不足以覆盖美国本土单一天的全部消耗量。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: So, uh, minimally. I mean the initial number we're talking about is an extra 300,000 tons of Russian diesel onto the global market. That's less than one day of consumption in the US.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 甚至还不够全美一天的消耗量。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Less than one day.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 确实不够。我特意去查阅了美国汽车协会（**AAA**）公布的最新汽柴油基准数据：截至周二，全美柴油零售均价为每加仑6.28美元，而一周前该数据为每加仑6.32美元。所以你看，油价确实有些许下调，但降幅完全可以忽略不计。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Yes. And I did check the AAA gas prices numbers. So, as of Tuesday, diesel is $6.28 a gallon compared to $6.32 a gallon a week ago. So, the price has gone down, but not by much.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 而且这点流入市场的额外供货量，根本不可能对全社会如此庞大的总需求产生实质性的撼动，对吧？
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: And the amount that would be coming in really wouldn't make a dent in the overall demand that there is, right?
**Anton Troyanowski**: 是的。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Yeah.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 但至少对外摆出了一种正在采取行动的政治姿态。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: But at least it's an effort.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 没错。我认为这在对内与对外宣传上都具有极强的象征主义意味。在国内，这可以作为一条现成的竞选宣传说辞灌输给广大选民：看，本届政府正在大刀阔斧地采取极端果断的手段，竭尽所能去平抑和控制柴油飞涨的价格。对俄罗斯而言，这则是一记极其直白的通报：这届政府完全不介意打破常规，甚至愿意推行那些在多方看来因“过度亲俄”而广受千夫所指的举措。而坦率地说，对于乌克兰和欧洲而言，这又是白宫释放的另一记严酷警钟：特朗普总统及其幕僚团队在事关全球安全格局的核心大局上，完全有决心一意孤行地走自己的路。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Yeah. I think this has a lot of symbolism both at home and abroad. At home, it's a thing that can be messaged to voters of this administration is taking drastic steps to try to bring the price of diesel under control. It is a message to Russia of this administration is willing to do stuff that is going to be criticized in many quarters for being too friendly to Russia. And frankly, it's yet another message both to Ukraine and to Europe that President Trump and his top officials are really willing to pursue their own path on matters of global security.
### 战场停滞与普京的战术收获 **Natalie Kitroeff**: 但是，如果考虑到欧洲和乌克兰此刻面临的深切忧虑，我能否追问一句：这项政策在现实中究竟能在多大程度上帮到俄罗斯去维系其在乌克兰的军事开支？因为如果这项协议对美国消费者的实质益处仅仅停留在象征层面，我非常好奇它对俄罗斯的真实影响究竟几何。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: But just thinking about Europe's and Ukraine's concern here, can I just ask how much will this policy actually help Russia in funding its war in Ukraine? Because if this is just symbolic and not all that meaningful for US consumers, I'm wondering how much of an impact it'll have in Russia.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 归根结底，石油和天然气的出口构成了支撑整个俄罗斯国民经济运行的最核心支柱。因此，西方针对俄罗斯能源所构筑的严密制裁高墙哪怕被凿开任何一道微小的裂痕，对普京而言都是极具价值的胜利。所以你可以看到，普京非常欣然地直接将这一地缘红利收入囊中，而在战场路线上迄今没有做出丝毫的妥协与让步。就在特朗普上周五做出这一高调宣布之后，克里姆林宫方面依旧冷淡宣称他们目前不具备同乌克兰举行实质谈判的基础，并继续动用导弹摧毁乌克兰的关键基础设施，造成无辜平民丧生。他们在战争路线图上没有任何实质收敛。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Well, at the end of the day, oil and gas exports are at the core of what drives the Russian economy. So any crack in the West's sanctions wall against Russian energy is important for Putin. So, I think what you'll see is Putin very much pocketing the win here and not as of yet changing the way he's approaching the war. After Trump made this announcement on Friday, the Kremlin has continued to say that they're not ready to negotiate with Ukraine and they have continued to hit Ukrainian infrastructure causing civilians to die. They have not changed their approach to this war.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 你是否有这样一种感觉，普京这种“只拿好处不让步”的做法会让特朗普感到火冒三丈？毕竟，当初各种利益抛售与交易兜售的核心前提，难道不是为了最终平息这场战争吗？然而现实摆在眼前：俄罗斯大摇大摆地笑纳了象征性的地缘红利，前线的猛烈炮火却丝毫没有停歇。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Do you get the impression that that pisses Trump off? Like, wasn't part of the premise of all of this deal making, deal dangling to eventually end the war? And yet, here you have Russia taking the symbolic win and keeping up the strikes.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 不，我们目前完全没有任何证据表明特朗普因为此事对普京动怒。我们掌握的所有一线调查报道都明确显示，特朗普眼下的怒火全部精准地聚焦在泽连斯基身上，他目前真正怨恨的对象是泽连斯基。这显然在很大程度上是因为美国国内居高不下的柴油与汽油价格，以及悬在头顶的中期选举危机。当然，这也贯穿了过去两年特朗普外交风格的一贯基调：即便战场局势持续失控升级，特朗普也始终愿意在最大程度上给予普京所谓的“善意推定”（benefit of the doubt），而将妥协与停火的全部重压单方面甩在泽连斯基肩上。接下来的核心悬念在于，这股政治怒火是否会蔓延并波及美国当前对乌克兰的其他关键安全援助？特朗普总统在周二曾明确坚称，美国向乌克兰提供的情报支援目前仍在正常运作——而乌军不论在识别打击俄军目标还是侦测俄方导弹来袭方面，都极度仰赖这些情报输入。但乌克兰高层如今深感寝食难安，他们极度担心特朗普未来随时可能把情报共享也当作威逼基辅就范的施压筹码。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: No, I don't have any indication that Trump has gotten more upset at Putin over this. What all our reporting points to is that Trump right now is fixated on Zelensky and is angry at Zelensky. Clearly in part because of the high diesel prices, high gas prices here in the US and the approaching midterms and that of course has been a theme throughout for most of the last two years. Trump really giving Putin the benefit of the doubt even as this war escalates and putting the onus on compromise and settlement onto Zelensky. And the question of course is does this affect other kinds of ongoing US support for Ukraine. President Trump said on Tuesday that US intelligence support for Ukraine is continuing. The Ukrainians need that for both targeting and seeing what Russia is firing at them. But the Ukrainians are definitely worried that this is something that Trump could put into play.
### 卢克石油暗流与家族利益交织 **Natalie Kitroeff**: Anton，我们是否可以合理推断，目前所发生的一切标志着特朗普政府在对俄施压战略上发生了一场深刻质变？正如你开篇所述，美方最初是把各种诱人的商业交易许诺作为促使俄罗斯停火议和的“事后奖赏”；但现在看起来，这些交易已经不再是战后奖励，而更像是一笔“定金”（down payment）——他们似乎在赌，先给俄罗斯尝一尝重归于好的甜头，或许就能哄得普京同意停火收兵。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Anton, am I right that we should see what's happening now as a shift in the Trump administration's strategy in terms of pressuring Russia? At the outset, you said they were holding out the promise of these business deals as an incentive to get Russia to end the war. And now, instead of a reward, it sounds like they're using these deals as something like a down payment. Like they're banking on the idea that giving Russia a taste of what a close relationship feels like can get Putin to agree to stop fighting.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 毫无疑问，绝对如此。我认为这项柴油协议之所以在各界引发轩然大波，最令人瞠目结舌的核心事实在于：据我们所知，俄方在换取美方暂缓制裁的过程中，根本没有做出任何实质性的战略退让。不仅如此，我们的跟踪报道还表明，美俄双方私下密谈的交易清单远不止这一项，他们甚至正在积极磋商一系列可能在不停火的前提下就敲定推行的其他大额商业合作。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Yeah. I mean, absolutely. I think one of the shocking things to people about this diesel agreement has been that as far as we know there is no concession that the Russians made in return for the sanctions being lifted. So yeah, and our reporting does indicate that there are other deals that the US and Russia are talking about that they might even do without the war coming to an end first.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 比如还有什么？能不能给我们举一个具体的例子？
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Like what? Give me an example of that.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 好的，据我们所知，各方私下已经讨论了多套完全不同的商业交易方案。他们所构想的未来图景，是一个制裁被彻底扫除、大量资金与财富在美俄之间自由穿梭涌动的状态。但在我们过去数周持续追踪的诸多案子中，有一笔交易的推进程度极其深入，那就是收购俄罗斯第二大石油巨头**卢克石油**（**Lukoil**）全部海外资产的庞大交易。简而言之，该方案计划由一个财团出资数以十亿美元计的资金，全盘接收这家能源巨头在海外拥有的炼油厂、海外油田，甚至包括位于新泽西州境内的众多加油站网络。这无疑将是一笔利润极其惊人的暴利交易，因为卢克石油目前仍身处美国严厉的制裁黑名单之中；一旦卢克石油正式同意出售这些海外重资产并获得美国政府的特批免责，这些资产的市场估值瞬间就会迎来报复性暴涨。而更为引人瞩目的是，只要仔细看一看目前即将与各方签署协议的这批投资者背后的真实身份，谜底就更加耐人寻味了。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Well, look, we know a lot of different deals have been discussed. I mean, the future that is being imagined here is one where there are no more sanctions and tons of deals, tons of money flowing between the US and Russia. But there is one specific deal that we've been reporting on over the last few weeks that is quite far along and that's the purchase of the international assets of a big Russian oil company called Lukoil. Basically, what that would be would be for a group of investors to come in and buy those billions of dollars in assets of this energy company, be it refineries, oil fields, even gas stations in New Jersey in what would be a really lucrative transaction because Lukoil is under US sanctions. And as soon as Lukoil agrees to sell those assets and the US approves the sale, the value of those assets would go way up. And then even more significant is if you look at who these investors are that are now close to signing this deal.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 那些核心投资者究竟是谁？
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Who are they?
**Anton Troyanowski**: 牵头的投资集团由美国亿万富豪 **Todd Boehly** 领衔，他曾为特朗普的政治竞选事业捐赠过大笔资金。当然，美国政府自身也会在其中参股持有份额。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: So it's an investor group led by Todd Boehly, the American billionaire who has made donations to Trump's political causes. And of course the US government would take a stake, right?
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 明白了。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Right.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 但与此同时，入局瓜分份额的还包括数位来自中东地区的重量级财阀，而这些人与主导谈判的威特科夫和库什纳有着深厚盘根错节的私人商业伙伴关系。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: But so would several investors from the Middle East who have business ties to Witkoff and Kushner.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 比如有两名叙利亚裔卡塔尔籍的亿万富豪兄弟，他们同时也是贾里德·库什纳及其妻子 **Ivanka Trump**（特朗普总统的长女）在阿尔巴尼亚豪华度假村开发项目上的核心商业合伙人。这简直耐人寻味——你的意思是，这项重大跨国能源交易不仅给美国政府带来了收益，更直接让那些正在亲自起草与敲定这项交易的当事幕僚，以及与特朗普家族走得极近的政商代理人获得了巨大的潜在红利。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: For example, two Syrian Qatari billionaire brothers who are also business partners with Jared Kushner and his wife Ivanka Trump, the president's daughter, on a resort in Albania. Hm. You're saying this particular deal, it benefits the US government, but also the people who are negotiating the deal itself, people close to the Trump family.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 确实能给美国政府带来利益。有人甚至会辩称这同样有利于美国的外交战略利益，因为这能让美国一举掌控诸多具有战略支柱意义的海外关键核心设施，比如欧洲境内的超大型炼油枢纽。我们从白宫方面听到的官方口径一直是，威特科夫和库什纳纯粹是出于为美国国家最高利益服务的公心在推进斡旋，没有任何证据表明威特科夫会直接从中渔利。但毫无疑问，市场上明明存在大量潜在的合规商业投资者，而最终有资格在这笔潜在暴利的大蛋糕中分得一杯羹的，偏偏全都是与白宫两位核心美方谈判特使有着深厚商业裙带关系的特定金主。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Well, I mean, it benefits the US government. I think there's an argument to be made that it also benefits American foreign policy because it would give the US a stake in these really strategically significant assets like again these very large refineries in Europe. What we've been hearing from the administration is Witkoff and Kushner have been doing this only in the service of American interests and there is no indication that Witkoff would profit directly. But of course there are many potential investors out there and it is significant that the investors getting a piece of this potentially very lucrative deal are ones with business ties to the two main American negotiators.
### 外交幻象与前线寒冬 **Natalie Kitroeff**: Anton，退一步客观审视，这种积极谋求大额经贸交易的妥协策略，目前是否有任何迹象表明它真的开始促使俄罗斯或者普京本人愿意坐回谈判桌前、真正去实质性谋求和平？我们能否看出它哪怕产生了一丝一毫的积极疗效？
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Anton, just stepping back, is there any indication that this strategy of pursuing these deals has begun to encourage Russia or Putin himself to come to the table to try to actually end this war? Like, do we know if this may be working at all?
**Anton Troyanowski**: 正如你所知，在调任华盛顿特区之前，我长期常驻莫斯科报道俄罗斯政局，深入跟踪研究过普京。我深切地知道，历届美国政府在“究竟该如何最有效地与普京打交道”这一难题上都曾经历过极其痛苦的碰壁与挣扎。显而易见，上一届拜登政府既没能阻击普京发起针对乌克兰的大规模入侵，也未能将其迅速终结。当时美方的策略是对俄罗斯构筑极度强硬的对抗防线，试图在外交孤立与经济围堵上将莫斯科彻底边缘化。而本届特朗普政府则反其道而行之，在竭力将俄罗斯重新拉回国际主流博弈舞台的中心圈：特朗普本人频繁与普京进行直接电话会谈；威特科夫和库什纳像走城门一样定期前往莫斯科同普京密室会晤；前不久我们刚看到俄罗斯财政部长公开出席在北卡罗来纳州举办的二十国集团（**G20**）财长会议；我们甚至可能在今年12月看到普京本人亲自出席在迈阿密举行的G20领导人峰会。美方正在以前所未有的热情高规格迎合他。而我们在长期观察中都很清楚，这恰恰是俄罗斯最为梦寐以求的地位：普京极度渴望被重新视作与美利坚合众国平起平坐的超级大国领袖，他渴望直接同美国总统对话。但我们必须正视一个冷酷的客观现实：这套所谓深度接触与利益怀柔的新策略，从去年年初特朗普重返白宫执政至今已经推行了相当长时间，它依然根本没有奏效。整场战争只是在不可遏制地加速恶化与升级。在各方看来，随着普京对乌克兰纵深空袭的不断加码以及俄罗斯对欧洲发动的“混合战争”全面白热化，现实局势实际上变得愈发险象环生。因此在我看来，未来最核心的死结在于：普京所真正觊觎并要求摆上谈判桌的那些更庞大、更深层次的诉求，到底该如何收场？正如我们前面分析过的，普京真正焦虑并极度在乎的，是俄罗斯与北约防务边界的大国地缘博弈，是割裂领土归属的核心主权纠纷，以及在战后如何确保乌克兰彻底失去独立抵御俄罗斯再次入侵的能力。正是围绕着这些极其盘根错节的地缘死结，目前显然还有着无法逾越的深沟，几乎看不到化解的端倪。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: I mean, as you know, before coming to Washington, I covered Russia and I covered Putin, and I know that many American administrations have really struggled with how best to engage Putin. Obviously, the prior administration was not able to head off Putin's invasion of Ukraine or to end it, and the strategy was really to take a very hard line against Russia and try to diplomatically isolate Russia. This administration has been bringing Russia back into the fold, right? We have Trump speaking regularly to Putin on the phone. We have Witkoff and Kushner traveling regularly to Russia to meet with Putin. We saw the Russian finance minister come to the G20 recently in North Carolina. We might have Putin coming to the big G20 summit in Miami in December. They are really engaging him. And we know in a way that is something that Russia really wants. Putin really wants to be seen as an equal to the US. He wants to be talking to the American president. But we've got to acknowledge that this new approach of engagement, it's been since Trump returned to office early last year, and it still hasn't worked. The war has only escalated. By many accounts, it's actually only gotten more dangerous as Putin's bombardments and Russia's hybrid war with Europe intensifies. So, the big question to me going forward is what about all the other stuff that Putin wants and is going to need to be negotiated. As discussed, Putin cares about the geopolitics of Russia's relationship with NATO, the problems of territory and how to keep Ukraine sovereign and make sure Russia is not able to invade again. And so, it's those really complicated questions where clearly there's still a lot of work to be done.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 我心中的疑问是：如果这套策略最终彻底被证明行不通，如果普京在前线非但不收手反而肆无忌惮地进一步升级战火，你认为特朗普最终会痛下决心撤回与俄罗斯暗通款曲的亲近路线吗？
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: I guess my question is if this ultimately doesn't work, if Putin continues to escalate, do you think Trump eventually decides to pull back on this strategy of getting closer to Russia?
**Anton Troyanowski**: 坦白地说，就目前的风向来看，种种迹象更偏向于相反的发展脉络：即特朗普很有可能会索性进一步抽身抛弃对乌克兰的实质支持，即便战火继续延烧，也会义无反顾地单方面加深美俄两国的经贸接触。要明白，这正是自特朗普重掌白宫以来，普京一直在苦心孤诣诱导白宫迈出的关键一步。普京一直在不断向特朗普灌输这样一种论调：“瞧瞧吧，只要我们把乌克兰战场上的烂摊子彻底抛在脑后，美俄之间还有无尽的庞大商业红利唾手可得。”
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Well, honestly, the indication for now is more the opposite, that Trump could end up pulling back from Ukraine and engaging with Russia despite the war continuing. You know, that is something that Putin has been trying to achieve ever since Trump returned to office. Putin has been trying to say to Trump, look at all these business deals we could do if we just forget about the war in Ukraine.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 也就是：“别把美俄双边合作同乌克兰战争强行捆绑挂钩。让我们把这两件事当成毫不相干的独立轨道来看待。”
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Like, don't condition your engagement on the war. Let's treat these two things as separate.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 这在过去一年半乃至更长的时间里，始终是克里姆林宫处心积虑谋求的核心政策目标。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: That has been a policy goal of the Kremlin for the last year and a half and more.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 那么从长远来看，这究竟会对美国未来的涉俄大战略产生怎样不可逆的深远冲击？我们是否正在无可挽回地滑向这样一个未来世界：对俄罗斯这个美国在全球最大的地缘死敌之一实施经济封锁，在未来将彻底不再作为美国手中的有效战略杠杆——不论是作为促使让步的胡萝卜，还是作为惩戒的战略大棒？
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: So, I mean, what is the impact of that in the long term in terms of our policy in Russia? Are we looking at a world in some point in the future in which economic pressure on Russia, one of our biggest adversaries, is no longer a point of leverage either as a carrot or a stick?
**Anton Troyanowski**: 不，目前美国对俄罗斯实施的系统性制裁存量依然极其庞大。我的直觉告诉我，白宫现政府在内心深处仍然把这些制裁条款视作某种谈判博弈筹码，只不过相较于指望一蹴而就迫使俄罗斯全面停止战争，他们目前更倾向于以一种零敲碎打的渐进式利益交换来使用它。我相信在中期选举落幕、尤其是下一届美国总统大选结束之后，你完全可以预见到美国外交政策极有可能再度发生修正，重新回调为某种更符合建制派常规框架的传统对抗模式。与此同时，欧洲大陆内部正在经历的历史性嬗变将是一个绝对至关重要的战略风向标。因为在当下的欧洲政坛，极右翼和极左翼政治力量正在德国、法国和英国等主要国家迅速崛起，极力鼓吹推行对俄罗斯更为怀柔妥协的友好路线。比如眼下在德国，极右翼阵营内部就充斥着极其高调的鼓噪呼声：“我们为什么还不赶紧重新恢复进口廉价的俄罗斯天然气？”因此，这注定将是一场极其关键的博弈观察点：欧洲究竟是能咬牙固守其既有的强硬制裁防线，还是会在即将到来的各国关键选举洗牌之后，彻底改变法德等大国应对俄罗斯的既定底层范式？最后，我从长期追踪观察俄乌战局的权威地缘分析师们那里听到了一种广泛的预判：归根结底，这场惨烈的冲突终究需要通过俄罗斯与乌克兰两国之间进行直接的殊死谈判来达成落幕。因为事实早已无情地证明，美国不论对于克里姆林宫还是对于基辅政权，其所能施加的外交与战略杠杆都存在着极其显著的现实边界与局限性。而这一现实再次残忍地把我们拉回到这场悲剧的核心受害者身上：所有这些冰冷丑陋的商业私下媾和，围绕着柴油供应与经济制裁展开的地缘边缘政策与零和算计，全部都发生在乌克兰前线的人间炼狱之中。随着凛冬无情逼近，在乌克兰防空防空弹药已经极度匮乏告急的至暗时刻，俄罗斯将毫无悬念地让乌克兰平民迎来一个残酷刺骨的漫长严冬。而至少在此时此刻，我们依然看不到这场苦难的终点究竟在何方。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: No, I mean there are still a ton of sanctions on Russia and my sense is the administration does still see those sanctions as leverage, but potentially in a more incremental way than immediately getting Russia to end the war. I think after the midterms and certainly after the next presidential election, you can very much imagine US policy shifting again into a more traditional mode. Um, it'll be really important to see what happens in Europe because in Europe right now you have a far-right and far-left movement, Germany, France, UK promoting a more friendly relationship to Russia. For example, especially in Germany, there's a lot of talk on the far right about why aren't we importing Russian gas again? And so that's going to be a really key thing to watch. Does Europe still keep its hard line or do upcoming elections there change how France and Germany and others are dealing with Russia? And finally, you know, I've heard a lot of speculation from analysts following the war that at the end of the day, it's going to be some kind of negotiation directly between Russia and Ukraine that ends this war because we've clearly seen that there are limits to US leverage both on Russia and on Ukraine. So that kind of brings us back, I think, to the the main victims here. The awful thing about all this is that all these business negotiations and this brinksmanship on on sanctions and deals and what's going to happen to the diesel supply that is all playing out as this war gets worse and worse on the ground in Ukraine. As the winter approaches at a time when Ukraine is extremely low on missile defenses, Russia is going to be able to make this winter truly awful. And there for the moment, we still see no end in sight.
**Natalie Kitroeff**: 好的，Anton，非常感谢你能来到我们的节目。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: Well, Anton, thanks for coming on the show.
**Anton Troyanowski**: 感谢你的邀请。
Original English **Anton Troyanowski**: Thanks for having me.
### 今日要闻速递 **Natalie Kitroeff**: 我们稍后马上回来。以下是你今天还需要了解的其他重要资讯：在白宫明确要求其辞职之后，**Kimberly Guilfoyle** 于本周二正式辞去了美国驻希腊大使职务。在此之前，《华尔街日报》率先披露了一连串对其极为不利的重磅调查报道，揭露其涉嫌多项严重的利益冲突行为。例如，一名共和党核心捐资人公开指认称，吉尔福伊尔曾在去年出席参议院确认任命听证会前夕，直接要求该捐资人向其电汇10万美元以全额偿还其个人的信用卡欠款，并向其开出极具诱惑的政治承诺称，只要电汇款项到账，她愿意充当该金主在特朗普政治权力核心圈内“至死不渝”（ride or die）的绝对代言人。在个人社交媒体发布的一份声明中，吉尔福伊尔坚决表示，她将为捍卫自己的个人名誉、社会声望与职业诚信进行极其强硬有力的辩护。 另外，教皇 **Leo XIV** 于本周二被确诊罹患肺癌，并在紧急外科手术中切除了右肺下叶。梵蒂冈在官方声明中对外证实手术进行得十分顺利，未出现并发症，但并未进一步披露教皇后续是否还将接受放化疗等深度医学治疗。 最后，**康奈尔大学**（Cornell University）正式对外宣布，针对一名女学生指控在2024年10月遭遇兄弟会成员轮奸一案，该校决定在整个剩余学年内全面关停并禁止所有兄弟会宿舍内部的聚会联谊活动。校方同时强调，将专门引入拥有丰富处理经验的性侵犯罪调查专家进驻校警队伍协助联合办案。康奈尔大学校长在接受《纽约时报》采访时明确表示，这一严厉禁令将为全面深入彻查整个校园内部的兄弟会文化提供充足的窗口期，以审慎评估此类活动未来是否具备安全恢复重启的现实基础。 今天的节目由 Claire Tennies、Adrienne Hurst 以及 Eric Krupke 联合倾力制作，由 Paige Cowitt 和 Liz O. Baylen 联合把关审校。配乐创作者为 Marion Lozano 与 Alicia Ba Eup，录音技术工程由 Alyssa Moxley 执掌，节目主题音乐由 Wonderly 谱写呈现。以上就是本期《The Daily》的全部内容，我是 Natalie Kitroeff，我们明天见。
Original English **Natalie Kitroeff**: We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. Kimberly Guilfoyle resigned as the US ambassador to Greece on Tuesday after the White House asked her to step down. Guilfoyle had been the subject of a string of damaging reports that first appeared in the Wall Street Journal about her potential conflicts of interest. For example, a Republican donor said that Guilfoyle had asked him to wire her $100,000 to pay off her credit card just before her Senate confirmation hearing last year, promising to serve as the donor's quote "ride or die" in the Trump world if he sent the money. In a social media post, Guilfoyle said she planned to quote "vigorously defend her name, reputation, and integrity." And Pope Leo XIV was diagnosed with lung cancer on Tuesday and a lower lobe of his right lung was removed during surgery. The Vatican said in a statement that the operation was successful and there were no complications but didn't specify whether the Pope would undergo further treatment. Finally, Cornell University announced that it was banning parties at fraternity houses for the rest of the academic year in response to a student's allegation of gang rape in October 2024. The university also said that it would add experienced sexual assault investigators to work with its police force. Cornell's president told the Times that the ban would allow for a thorough review of frat life on campus to determine whether it could safely resume. Today's episode was produced by Claire Tennies, Adrienne Hurst, and Eric Krupke. It was edited by Paige Cowitt and Liz O. Baylen. Contains music by Marion Lozano and Alicia Ba Eup and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Wonderly. That's it for The Daily. I'm Natalie Kitroeff. See you tomorrow.