--- author: All-In Podcast date: '2026-01-14' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8cXD5hTt3c speaker: All-In Podcast tags: - ai-adoption - workforce-transformation - lifelong-learning - organizational-speed - robotics-manufacturing title: AI如何超越历次技术革命：机器人、智能制造与AR眼镜的未来展望 summary: 本次访谈深入探讨了**AI**在**ChatGPT**发布后带来的前所未有的创新速度及其对商业模式、劳动力市场和教育的深远影响。嘉宾们分享了**McKinsey**和**General Catalyst**等公司如何应对变革，强调了组织速度、终身学习以及人类在愿景、判断和创造力方面的独特价值。讨论还涵盖了自动驾驶、机器人技术等实体**AI**的未来，并回顾了历史上的科技产品，展望了**AI**时代下人机协作和教育体系的演变。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: ai-ml area: tech-engineering project: [] people: [] companies_orgs: - McKinsey - General Catalyst - Anthropic - OpenAI - Tesla products_models: - ChatGPT - Optimus - Google Glass media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 访谈开场与AI时代展望 **主持人**: 我们刚刚在1700人面前进行了一场非常成功、充满活力、全面接触的辩论。座无虚席。All-in品牌的魅力在于，它能让对话充满乐趣和刺激，没有任何问题或话题被禁止。没有审查制度。我们将直接讨论最棘手的话题。我们玩得很开心。讨论了许多重要话题。这是一个很棒的小组。这些人在商业领域做着真正令人兴奋的事情，他们是行业的先锋。
Original English **主持人**: We just had a very successful all-in spirited full contact debate in front of 1,700 people. A packed house. There were no open seats. The power of the all-in brand is really to have the conversations with a little bit of fun, a little bit of spiciness and no question, no topic can be banned. There was no censorship. No censorship. We're going to just go right after the hardest topics. But we had a really fun time. Discussed so many important topics. What a great panel. These guys are tip of the spear in terms of doing really exciting things in business.
**Jason**: 感谢大家的到来。我们将就未来，特别是围绕**AI**展开一场非常深入的讨论。我认为**AI**不仅是**2026年CES**最重要的主题——我们已经看到了所有令人难以置信的小工具、芯片发布、自动驾驶——它还将是我们一生中最重要的变革。我认为过去30年我们所看到的所有技术，从**PC革命**到**云计算**，再到**互联网**、**移动技术**，所有这些都将与**AI**对社会产生的影响相形见绌。如果你来**CES**，就知道你是为此而来的。我们有两位出色的嘉宾将加入我们进行这场辩论。此外，我还带来了我的盒子，一个装满了过去圣诞节的幽灵和小工具的盒子。我们将在讨论结束时回顾这些。现在，请看一段关于今天将加入我的嘉宾的短片。
Original English **Jason**: Thanks for coming out everybody. We're going to have a great super hardcore discussion about the future specifically around **AI** which I think is the most important theme not only of **CES 2026** as we've seen with all the incredible gadgets chips being launched self-driving but it's going to be the most important transformation of our lifetimes. I think everything we've seen over the last 30 years of technology from the **PC revolution** to **cloud computing** to the **internet**, **mobile**, all of that is going to be dwarfed in comparison to the impact that **AI** is going to have on society. If you're here at **CES**, you know that you're here for that reason. And we've got two amazing guests who are going to join us to have this debate. And additionally, I've brought my box, a box filled with all the ghosts and gadgets of Christmas past. And we're going to go through those at the end of our discussion. But here's a quick video of our guests who will be joining me today.
**视频旁白**: 从董事会到白宫及其他领域，**McKinsey**在商业领域的影响力几乎无与伦比。它是全球最大、最具影响力的咨询公司之一。企业可以比我们任何人预期的更快地发展，这是个好消息，因为这些问题不会是下一代的问题，它们将是我们这一代领导者的问题。提高政府体系的效率和效力是经济增长和国防的关键。我们还认为，我们带给公共部门的一些私营部门见解可以推动创新。我们的下一位嘉宾领导着风险投资公司**General Catalyst**，截至年中，其管理资产达400亿美元。我们在风险投资领域的愿景是成为全球最好的种子基金公司。我们正在做出的决策和正在建立的公司将影响未来几个世纪的世界。
Original English **视频旁白**: From boardrooms to the White House and beyond, **McKinsey**'s influence in business is virtually unparalleled. It's one of the largest and most influential consulting firms in the world. enterprise can move faster than any of us expected, which is good news because these problems aren't going to be the problems of the next generation. They're going to be the problems of our leadership generation. Making this system of government better on both efficiency and effectiveness is key for economic growth and for national defense. We also think that some of the private sector insights that we have brought to the public sector can drive innovation. Our next guest leads venture capital firm **General Catalyst** with 40 billion in assets under management as of midyear. Our aspirations in venture capital is to be the best seed firm in the world. The decisions we're making, the companies we're building are going to impact the world for centuries to come.
**Jason**: 女士们、先生们，请欢迎**Bob Sternfelds**和**Hamont Tasia**。
Original English **Jason**: Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome **Bob Sternfelds** and **Hamont Tasia**.
**Jason**: 好的，先生们。欢迎。好的，团队。开始吧。开始吧。
Original English **Jason**: All right, gentlemen. Welcome. Yeah. All right team. Let's do it. Let's do it.
### AI时代的创新速度与组织变革 **Jason**: 自**ChatGPT**推出以来的过去两年里，您如何看待**创新速度**和变化的步伐，与我们职业生涯的前30年相比？我们都属于某个X世代的年龄。请比较一下过去两三年与之前的30年。
Original English **Jason**: How do you look at the pace of innovation and change in this past two years since **ChatGPT** was launched compared to the first 30 years of our careers. We're all of a certain Gen X age. Compare the last two or three years to the 30 before it.
**Bob Sternfelds**: 是的，**Jason**，首先谢谢你。很高兴能和大家一起在这里。这周真是太棒了。我想这周有超过15万人来到这里。你说**CES**回来了，我认为**CES**确实回来了。这很棒，对吧？随着所有这些事情的发生，我认为来自不同视角的人们聚集在一起变得非常重要，因为那是新思想产生的地方。我最大的希望以及我们来到这里的原因是，当你与不同的人交流时，你会产生新的想法，而世界需要新的想法。我喜欢你提到了很多科技领袖。令人兴奋的是，我认为每个人都将科技视为解决方案的一部分。所以，当我看到**CES**的参与者时，你不仅看到了科技领袖、投资者，还看到了来自几乎所有垂直行业的参与者，他们现在都在这里，因为他们知道技术不再是辅助，而是我们所做一切的核心。回到你的问题，我认为我们现在正以**warp speed**（超光速）前进。这简直是天壤之别。当你看到这种节奏变化时，这几乎是一种“公元前/公元后”式的转变。我还没有遇到过一位CEO不谈论如何让自己的组织更快地发展。坦率地说，这更多地关乎**组织速度**，而不是战略。**Hamont**，与我们最初的几十年相比，现在感觉如何？那时公司需要两三年才能发布一款产品，而现在公司在两三周、两三个月内就能发布产品。
Original English **Bob Sternfelds**: Yeah. Yeah. Well, first **Jason**, thanks. And it's great to be up here with you guys. And yeah, I would just say this week is amazing. I think there's over 150,000 folks here this week. And you talk about **CES** being back. I think **CES** is back. And that's great, right? And with all of these things happening, I think there is such a premium on folks from different perspectives getting together because that's where new ideas are created. And my big hope and why we're here is when you mix and mingle with different folks, you come up with new things and the world needs new things and what I love is you mentioned a lot of the tech leaders. What's exciting for this is I think everybody sees tech as part of the equation. And so when I look at the folks here in **CES**, you see not only the technology leaders, the investors, but you see folks from almost every industry vertical that are here now because they know that technology doesn't sit on the side, it's central to everything we do. And I get to your question, look, I think we're moving at literally **warp speed** now. It's just night and day different. It's almost a, you know, BC A type of thing when you can see the change of pace. And I haven't met a CEO yet that isn't talking about how do I get my organization moving faster. It's quite frankly less about strategy. It's more about **organizational speed**. **Hamont**, how does this feel compared to our first, you know, couple of decades where companies would take two or three years to release a product and now companies are releasing products in two or three weeks, two or three months.
**Hamont Tasia**: 是的，世界已经彻底改变了，对吧？我们经常说这是**模糊性高峰**。你面临着巨大的**地缘政治**变化。每个国家都在努力推动不同行业的**战略自主**，这带来了令人难以置信的变化。所有这些动态都在不断变化：联盟、新的世界秩序，一切都在变。而在这一切之下，我们的实施工具是不断变化的**技术**，对吧？所以，今天的技术能构建什么，与两年前，比如说2022年11月**ChatGPT**问世时**LLM**能做什么，是根本不同的。那么，你正在朝着一个什么样的世界去构建，才能拥有**持久价值**？你又在使用什么样的技术进行构建，才能确保你所使用的技术不会过时，不会随着时间的推移而破坏你的**价值主张**？这都是各种各样的变化。所以，这是一个非常动态的时期。你还会看到，我们在2010年投资了**Stripe**。大约12、13年后，它成为了一家千亿美元的公司。再看看**Anthropic**，我们也是它的投资者，去年它的估值从600亿美元增长到几千亿美元。顺便说一句，在良好的经济进展下，这些并非空中楼阁般的估值，它们是基于实际业务增长的。这又回到了你的观点，即当代码能够**自写**并且**分发渠道**发生变化时，价值创造的速度会如何**压缩**。所以从根本上说，这真的非常令人兴奋，我认为它会从这里加速发展。这是我们风险投资中会关注的统计数据之一：一家公司需要多长时间才能达到1亿美元的收入？需要多长时间才能达到10亿美元的收入？请详细谈谈**Anthropic**及其发展历程，因为这家公司的收入，以及**OpenAI**，它们目前的年收入都趋近于200亿美元。**Anthropic**目前处于什么阶段？收入构成是怎样的？收入来自哪里？
Original English **Hamont Tasia**: Yeah. So look, the world has completely changed, right? We've often said this is **peak ambiguity**. You have massive **geopolitical** change. You have an incredible amount of change around every country trying to drive **strategic autonomy** in different industries. And all those dynamics keep changing. Alliances, the new world order, everything. And then underneath that, our tool of implementation is **technology** that keeps changing, right? So what the technologies can build today versus what the **LLM** could do, let's say, two years ago or November 22, let's say, when **ChatGPT** came about is fundamentally different. So what are you building towards as to what the world's going to look like so you can have **enduring value**? And then what are you building with where the technologies you're using aren't going to obsoles and and destroy your **value proposition** over time. It's just all kinds of change. And so it's really dynamic time. And the other thing you will see is you know we invested in **Stripe** in 2010. It became a you know a hundred billion dollar company let's say 12 13 years later. You look at **Anthropic**, which we're also investors in, that goes from $60 billion last year to, you know, a couple hundred billion. So like, and by the way, with good economic progress, these are not pie in the sky valuations. They're based on actual growth of the business. Well, that goes back to your point, which is the compression of how fast value can create when code **self-writes** and access to **distributions** change. So fundamentally, it's just it's just really exciting and I think it's going to accelerate from here. This was one of the statistics we would look at in venture capital. Hey, how long does it take this company to get to a hundred million in revenue? How long does it take to get to a billion in revenue? Unpack **Anthropic** and that journey because this company's revenue and you have **OpenAI** obviously they're contemporary trending towards $20 billion in revenue a year. Where's **Anthropic** at and what's the revenue mix? Where does the revenue come from?
**Hamont Tasia**: 好吧，你看，**Anthropic**构建**语言模型**。它拥有市面上一些最好的模型。有几家公司在这方面做得很好。然后它们在上面还有**云服务**，这在我看来是**企业工程部门转型**的精髓，对吧？这是一个杀手级应用，每个人现在都在使用这些工具。所以，当我们投资这家公司时，它的业务额约为8.8亿美元，比前一年增长了10倍。
Original English **Hamont Tasia**: Well, well, look, so **Anthropic** builds language models. It's got one of some of the best models out there. There's a couple of companies that are doing a good job at that. And then they've got **cloud** on top, which is to me the essence of transforming the **engineering department of enterprise**, right? And that's a killer application where everybody is now using these tools. So that business when we invested was doing about $880 million, which was a 10x growth from the year before,
**Jason**: 10倍增长。
Original English **Jason**: 10x year,
**Hamont Tasia**: 前一年增长了10倍。然后去年，他们宣布又增长了10倍甚至更多。所以当你看到这个，我们以600亿美元的估值进行投资，假设它会在此基础上增长3倍，因为这些数字令人震惊，而它确实增长了10倍，这是无法预测的。但看到这种采用速度如此之快，所以你看到这个就会说，我们最终以890亿到100亿美元的年化业务量，以600亿美元的估值进行投资，这是去年风险投资领域最划算的交易。所以，我们必须弄清楚**规模**到底意味着什么，以及我们是否还在做我们过去认为的“能否创造独角兽”的业务，现在我们谈论的是“能否创造**万亿美元公司**”，对吧？我的意思是，对于**Anthropic**和**OpenAI**以及其他几家公司来说，这不再是空中楼阁的想法。**技术**的**规模**已经发生了根本性的改变。
Original English **Hamont Tasia**: 10x growth the year before. And then and this last year they've announced this they're growing another 10x or more and so when you look at that and we invested at the $60 billion valuation assuming it's going to be like 3x growth from there because those are staggering numbers and it does 10x can't predict it but to see adoption is so fast and so you look at that and say so we ended up investing at you know um a 8910 billion kind of run rate business at 60 billion that's the cheapest deal that got done last year in venture capital on financial spaces. So, so we just have to get our head around what does **scale** really mean and what you know are we in the business of creating what we used to think was like can we create decoorns now we're talking about can we create **trillion dollar companies** right I mean that's not a pie in the sky idea with **Anthropic** and **OpenAI** and a couple others game changed **scale of technology** is you know fundamentally different in what it can do
**Jason**: **Bob**，这种巨大的收入增长背后是什么？因为你看到了所有现有企业，你看到了每年增长两三倍的优秀企业。你也看到了那些举步维艰的企业，然后你看到了这些巨大的数字和10倍的增长。在你看来，是什么推动了这一切？它是否可持续？我的意思是，这是另一个问题。
Original English **Jason**: **Bob** what's behind this massive revenue ramp because you get to see all the incumbent businesses you get see the elite businesses that are growing, you know, two or three times X each year. You also get to see the ones that are struggling and then you see these large numbers and 10x your growth. What what's driving this in your mind and is it sustainable? I mean, that's the other question.
**Bob Sternfelds**: 我不想给你经典的咨询师答案，但我确实认为这取决于情况。我认为我们今年正处于一个**转折点**。我来告诉你为什么。我认为支撑这种10倍甚至更多增长的基础是，我们与世界上大多数大型企业合作，涵盖所有行业垂直领域，我们看到这些技术（比如**Anthropic**）被大量采用。我们正在利用**Anthropic**，所以大型企业正在以他们前所未有的规模和速度使用技术。如果你看看IT支出占收入的百分比等等，所有这些都上升了，我认为这正在推动10倍甚至更多的增长。难题在于，而且这一点已被广泛报道，在**非技术公司**中实现**企业规模价值**被证明比人们想象的要困难。
Original English **Bob Sternfelds**: I hate to give you the the classic consultant answer, but I you know, I I do think it depends. And I I think we're at a we're at a we're at a **tipping point** this year. And I'll tell you why. I think what's underpinning this 10x and 10x you know we work with most of the large enterprise in the world across all industry verticals and what we have seen is a huge uptake of leveraging these technologies like **Anthropic** we're we're we're leveraging **Anthropic** and so large enterprise is using technology at a scale and rate that they haven't before and if you look at IT spend as a percent of revenue etc all this stuff has gone up and I think that is propelling the 10x to 10x The conundrum is, and it's, you know, been widely written about, realizing **enterprise at scale value** in **non-technology companies** is proving harder than people think.
**Jason**: 明白了。所以，用通俗易懂的话来说，这意味着，假设你有一家旅游公司。有人正在部署**AI**，你正在观察**Tesla**或**Google**发生的事情，他们取得了惊人的成果，但也许这家传统企业在实现这些成果方面遇到了更大的困难。我把它说得更简单一点。一位典型的非科技公司CEO可能会说：“**Bob**，我现在是听我的CFO还是我的CIO的？”
Original English **Jason**: Got it. So, in plain English, that means, hey, you've got a travel company. There's somebody deploying **AI** and you're watching what's happening at **Tesla** or **Google**, and they're getting these phenomenal results, but maybe that legacy business is having a harder time achieving those results. I'll make it even simpler. A typical non-tech CEO might say, "Hey, **Bob**, do I listen to my CFO or my CIO right now,
**Bob Sternfelds**: 对吧？CFO会说：“我们已经花了很多钱。为什么我们需要成为快速采用者？我还没有看到**投资回报率**。我们能暂停一下吗？”CIO会说：“你疯了吗？这是我们如果不行动就会被颠覆的时刻。”我们认为，现在我要说，光明的一面是，我认为有一条道路可以将两者结合起来，让他们成为盟友。你会说：“是的，但让我们重新思考一下，摆脱**试点炼狱**，真正思考**重组**，所有这些事情。”有一条道路，但我认为现在大多数CEO都在“我是听CFO的，还是听CIO的”之间左右为难。我认为这是一个很好的切入点，**Hamont**，谈谈你们**General Catalyst**的战略。你我认识很久了，真的很久了，几十年了，你总是以成为优秀的种子基金而自豪。我们会在这些公司只有1000万美元和10名员工的时候就投资他们，投入第一笔资金。但一个月前我看到一条新闻，说你们筹集了N亿美元，然后我看到你们正在收购公司。那么，你们是退出种子业务，现在在做一些随机的**私募股权**行为吗？这里发生了什么？
Original English **Bob Sternfelds**: Right? CFO is saying, "We've spent all this money. Why do we need to be the fast adopter? I'm not seeing the **ROI** yet. Can we pause?" CIO is saying, "Are you freaking crazy? This is the moment that if we don't, we'll be disrupted." We think, now I will say the the shining part is I think there's a path where you bring those two together as allies. And you say, "Yeah, but let's rethink this, get out of **pilot purgatory**, really think the **reorganization**, all this stuff." There is a path, but I think right now most CEOs are getting torn a bit between, "Do I listen to my CFO or do I listen to my CIO?" And I think this is a really good jump off point, **Hamont**, of your strategy at **General Catalyst**. You and I have known each other for a long time. You really a long time, decades, and you always prided yourself on being the great seed fund. We're gonna we're going to get to these companies when they're $10 million and 10 people and put that first check in. But then I saw this news item go by a month ago that you raised N billion and then I see you're buying companies. So are you out of the seed business and now doing random acts of **private equity**? What's going on here?
**Jason**: 给我解释一下**General Catalyst**的战略。
Original English **Jason**: Explain to me the strategy and **General Catalyst**.
**Hamont Tasia**: 我们有多少时间？这需要一些时间。所以，我想说，我们非常看重自己作为美国风险投资公司的角色，在过去的25年里，我们一直在与创始人并肩作战。这意味着，我们帮助他们在过去业务不明确的初期阶段应对**模糊性**，一直到在他们进入的复杂市场中摸索如何实现**规模化**。所以我们所做的一切都是为了创造这些**催化剂**，他们需要的**灵活资本**，他们需要的**政策能力**，他们需要的**市场准入**，以及在全球范围内建立一个**持久公司**所需的这些关系。所以这一点没有改变。那么，我们为什么要收购俄亥俄州的一个医疗系统呢？它是一个非营利组织。我们与总检察长合作将其转型。顺便说一句，我说这话时带着巨大的责任感，因为那是俄亥俄州阿克伦市的一个社区，我们正在照顾他们。所以那家医院必须在所有方面继续运营，照顾好那里的人们。我们收购它，是为了有一个地方可以与我们的创始人合作，用**AI**进行转型，为这个医疗系统创造**丰富性**和**韧性**，这样我们就能更好地照顾人们。好的，如果我们做到了这一点，那么我们就可以为全国其他数百个系统做同样的事情。所以，其中一部分是**市场准入**。医疗保健初创公司很难在这些系统中成功地大规模部署。我们将去展示如何做到。我们将在实地与他们一起做，并展示世界如何，这样它就能改变医疗系统。你提到的另一点是关于收购公司，我们认为正在发生大量的**劳动力转型**。**Bob**和我经常谈论这个问题。我认为这些公司的**工作**将发生根本性的变化。所以，如果你今天是一个新兴国家的呼叫中心，那么你的**资产价值**正在下降，因为你知道它将被**AI**取代。所以我们看到这一点，然后说，但那些是另一端的客户。如果我们将其作为拼图的一部分收购，与早期阶段的创始人合作，学习如何快速加速**AI**在呼叫中心领域的采用，并服务这些客户，更快地实现规模化。我们正在谈论的**价值创造压缩**，那是一个新的**策略**。所以这并不是要成为**私募股权**。这是关于收购那些价值正在下降但拥有需要服务的重要客户的**私募股权业务**，并通过让我们的创始人进入其中，帮助他们更快地实现**Bob**所说的**AI转型**。**Bob**，这真是非同寻常，当你想到它时，只是为了让听众能够理解这一点，风险投资家过去常常支持创始人，然后让他们成为门口的野蛮人，试图挑战这些大型行业。现在，这些大型行业在某些情况下正处于显著衰退、举步维艰之中，而风险投资家正在介入并说，我们将直接购买这座城堡，打开吊桥。我们将购买它，这样我们就可以利用我们的初创公司来加速，无论是医疗保健、金融服务还是客户支持，以及外包、业务流程外包。从本质上说，我们并不一定像关心客户群的访问权限那样关心那项业务的经济效益。
Original English **Hamont Tasia**: How much time do we have? It's going to take some time. So, so look, I would say we very much view ourselves as a venture capital for Americ for the 25 years we've been around has been meeting founders where they are. And what that means is essentially help them navigate **ambiguity** in the past when they're sort of beginning and the business isn't clear all the way to figuring out how to **scale** in the complex markets that they go into. So everything we've done has been in that context of creating these **catalysts** the **flexible capital** they need the **policy capabilities** they need the **market access** they need and those sort of relationships globally to actually build an **enduring company**. So that hasn't changed. So So why did we go acquire a health system in Ohio was a nonprofit. We worked with the attorney general converted it. And I say this by the way with a great sense of responsibility because that's a community of in Akran Ohio that we take care of. So that hospital has to continue operations in all the dimensions. It takes care of with people. We bought it to actually have a place where we can work with our founders and transform with **AI** create **abundance** and **resilience** for this health system so we can take care of the people a lot better. Okay. And if we if we did that then we can go do that for the other hundreds of systems across the country and be able to do that. So some of it is that's **market access**. It's very hard for healthcare startups to go deploy successfully at scale in these systems. We are going to go show how. We're gonna actually go on the ground with do with them and show what the world how so it can transform the health system. The you know your other point about sort of buying companies we look at that as there's a lot of **workforce transformation** happening. **Bob** and I talk a lot about this. I think **work** fundamentally in these companies is going to change. So if you're a call center in an emerging country today the a declining **asset value** because you know it's going to be place displaced with **AI**. So we look at that and say well but those are customers on the other side. If we bought that as a piece of the puzzle to work with an early stage founder to learn how to quickly accelerate **adoption of AI** into the call center space and serve these customers and scale a lot faster. The **compressed value creation** we're talking about that is that is a new **playbook**. So this is not about trying to be PE. This is about acquiring businesses in PE that actually have declining value but have important customers that need to be served and help them get to that **AI transformation** that **Bob**'s talking about faster by getting our founders in there. This is extraordinary **Bob** when you think about it just so the audience can put their head around this venture capitalist used to back founders to then be the barbarians at the gate to try to take on these big industries. Now these big industries in some cases are in significant decline struggling and the venture capitalists are coming in and saying we'll just buy the castle, open the draw bridge. We're going to buy it so that we can take our startups and accelerate whether it's healthcare, financial services or customer support and outsourcing, business process outsourcing. And essentially we don't we don't care about that business economically necessarily as much as we care about it for access to that **customer base**
**Jason**: 运营**McKinsey**。这是一个像从时间胶囊中走出来的未来策略，它说我们要颠覆整个生态系统。
Original English **Jason**: running **McKinsey**. This is a playbook that is like coming out of the future in a time capsule and saying we're going to just upend the entire ecosystem. Yeah.
**Bob**: 是的。我的意思是，我刚刚在一所大学做了一次演讲，当时正在和一些潜在的加入者交谈，我说：“听着，我嫉妒你们。我嫉妒你们所有人，因为你们有更多的时间来做我们正在做的事情，而你们正在一个会更加激动人心的时代做这件事。”因为如果你把这个联系起来，我喜欢的是，你们实际上正在创造一种**新资产类别**，对吧？这不是**私募股权**。这是关于如何将现有实体转变为不同的东西，对吧？**私募股权**通常是在特定规模下优化现有**资产类别**。这关乎**转型**。所以你想到大型现有企业，我认为你有一个选择。你有一个**转型或死亡**的选择。
Original English **Bob**: Yeah. I mean, it's I I just gave a talk at a university and was was talking to some potential folks to to join us and I said, "Look, um I'm jealous. I'm jealous of all of you because you have a lot more time to do what we do than I do. And you're doing it at a time where it's going to be a lot more exciting because if you just link this and hey, what I love is it effectively you're creating a **new asset class**, right? This is not **private equity**. This is about how do you transform incumbent entities into something different, right? **Private equity** typically optimizes an existing **asset class** at a certain scale. This is about **transformation**. So you think of large existing enterprise and I think you have a choice. You have a choice of **transform or die**.
**Jason**: 所以这是一个美好的时刻，但由于一些现有优势，我不会说你将走向哪条路是预先确定的。
Original English **Jason**: And so there's this wonderful moment and but because of some of the incumbent advantages, I wouldn't say that it's predetermined which way you're going to go. Right.
**Bob**: 对。你实际上可以很快做到这一点，我认为你正在展示**私人资本**的力量可以做到这一点。
Original English **Bob**: Right. you can actually do this quite quite quickly and I think you're showing the power of **private capital** can actually do this.
### 劳动力转型与AI赋能 **Hamont**: 所以我们已经聊了很多，对吧？当你考虑**转型大型企业**时，你真正需要什么？你需要几个部分。首先，你需要为企业准备好**数据基础设施**。你需要适合你的**模型**，然后你实际上需要一种新的**劳动力运作模式**，因为你将拥有**代理**和**人类**，这是一个巨大的**变革管理**过程。所以我们的大部分合作都是关于弄清楚，好的，那种新的模式将是什么，以**转型**这些业务，以及当你深入实地时，这意味着什么？你逐个部门地看，以**人力资源**为例，你如何推动医疗保健的转型，以及你如何照顾你的员工，今天的这个流程非常糟糕。我们有一家名为**Transparent**的公司，它本质上是在这方面创造**丰富性**，它使用**AI**，这样你就可以直接访问各种医疗保健服务，照顾好自己，然后能够被引导，无论你需要手术，还是需要癌症治疗，或者心理健康，并以一种无缝、**成本效益**高的方式进行，并帮助企业控制你的**成本结构**。你需要**编码**来从根本上进行转型，这就是**Anthropic**所做的。有些公司正在努力转型**呼叫中心**，有些公司正在努力转型你的**销售和营销**。但是当这些技术存在时，实际的人们将如何与这些**代理能力**协同工作？这是一个全新的模式，你知道，你们正在创造一个，谈谈这个，因为在整个**劳动力转型**中需要大量的创新，我认为这最终将决定团队和客户接受它的速度，以及我们如何真正将**AI**融入这些业务。
Original English **Hamont**: So we've chatted a lot about this right? So one of the things when you think about transforming a large enterprise what do you really need? You need a few pieces. One is you need **data infrastructure** that can ready you for the enterprise. You need the **models** adapted to you and then you actually need a new model for how the **workforce** is going to function because you have **agents** and **humans** and there's a massive **change management** exercise. So a lot of our partnership has been about sort of figuring out okay what is that new model going to be to transform these businesses and what does that mean when you get on the ground you look at department by department take **HR** how do you drive transformation of healthcare and how you take care of your people that process is horrible today and we have a business called **Transparent** that goes and essentially creates **abundance** in that regard which uses **AI** so you have direct access pentically to all kinds of healthcare services take yourself and then be able to be routed whether you need a surgery or you need to have cancer therapy or mental health and do it in a way that is seamless **cost effective** and helps enterprises take control of your **cost structure** you need **coding** to fundamentally transform that's what **Anthropic** does there are companies working on transforming the **call centers** there companies working on transforming your **sales and marketing** but then when you have these technologies in there how are the actual people going to do their work in concert with these **agentic capabilities** that is a whole new model and you know you guys are inventing a talk about that because there's a lot of in innovation that needs to happen in that that whole sort of **workforce transformation** that I think is ultimately where rubber is going to meet the road on how quickly teams embrace it customers embrace it and we can actually diffuse **AI** into these businesses
**Jason**: **Bob**，你不得不在你的组织内部处理这个问题，合适的规模是什么？当一项技术占据了一个职业生涯，并取代了前五年的时候会发生什么？
Original English **Jason**: And **Bob** you've had to deal with this internally at your organization what's the right size and what happens when a piece of technology takes a career and takes out the first five years
**Jason**: 当你基本上掏空一个组织前五年的发展时，会发生什么？这就是为什么经济中的一些人正在关注**AI**，他们感到害怕。
Original English **Jason**: what happens to an organization when you just basically gut the first five years of development. And this is why some people in the economy are looking at **AI** and they're scared
**Jason**: 他们正在关注**AI**并说，这会给我、我的家人、我那些即将毕业的孩子带来好处吗？这项技术，我认为管理咨询是看待这个问题的最佳场所。老实告诉我，最初的几年里，你正在培训这些非常聪明的孩子撰写报告和进行分析，而这些现在都可以通过**AI**完美地，或者接近完美地完成。
Original English **Jason**: and they're looking at **AI** and saying is this going to benefit me, my family, my kids who are graduating from school, this technology, and I think management consulting is the perfect place to look at it. Tell me honestly, the first couple of years you're training up one of these really smart kids to write up, you know, reports and do analysis that can be done with **AI** today perfectly, close to perfectly.
**Bob**: 是的。嗯，我先给你一些关于我们公司的数据，然后是更普遍的数据。25的平方，4万和2.5万。我这是什么意思？所以，让我们把**McKinsey**看作一个孵化器。25的平方意味着我们同时在做两件事。我们有面向客户的员工，在座的大多数人想到**McKinsey**咨询师时都会想到他们。明年我们将以25%的速度增长这部分人员。25%！这是前所未有的新员工数量，因为工作正在改变。他们不再做你刚才说的那些事情。我们统计了一下，去年我们在搜索和综合方面节省了150万小时，但我们正在将这些时间用于解决更复杂的问题和做不同的事情。你们可能已经厌倦了**McKinsey**的图表。我们有**代理**来做这些。他们在过去6个月里刚刚给了你250万个。我想摆脱图表。但咨询师们正在做不同的事情。我们正在为这部分人员增加25%。
Original English **Bob**: Yeah. Um, so I'll give you a a couple stats first on us, then more general. Um, 25 squared and 40,000 and 25,000. What do I mean by that? So, let's look at at **McKinsey** as a bit of a of an incubator. The 25 squared is we're simultaneously doing two things at the same time. So we have client-facing folks which most of you in the audience would know and think about when you think about a **McKinsey** consultant. We're growing that body at 25% next year. 25%. Unprecedented number of new hires because the work is changing. They're not doing the stuff that you talked about. We saved we looked at it. We saved 1.5 million hours in search and synthesis last year, but we're dividending that to solve more complicated problems and do different things. You guys are probably sick of **McKinsey charts** out there. You know, we have **agents** that do this. They just gave you 2.5 million of them in the last 6 months. I want to get rid of charts. But the the consultants are doing different things. We're adding 25% to that body.
**Jason**: 所以他们正在向上层移动。
Original English **Jason**: So, they're moving up the stack.
**Bob**: 他们正在向上层移动，处理这些更复杂的问题。但与此同时，我们公司大约一半的员工是非面向客户的。这部分人员我们减少了25%，同时产出增加了10%。
Original English **Bob**: They're moving up the stack and doing these more complicated problem. At the same time though about half our firm are nonclient-facing folks. We're down 25% in that group with 10% increase in output.
**Jason**: 所以同时，我知道这也很困难，特别是对于人们来说，我们将同时增加和缩减这两部分。
Original English **Jason**: And so simultaneously and I know this is hard also particularly for you know for folks to get we're going to be adding and shrinking simultaneously with the two halves.
**Bob**: 这在公司历史上从未发生过。
Original English **Bob**: This has never happened in the history of the firm.
**Bob**: 我们的模式一直与**总人数增长**同步，即增长只发生在总人数增长的情况下。现在它实际上正在分裂。我们可以在面向客户的这一部分增长，我们可以在这一部分缩减，但总人数仍然实现整体增长。这是一种新的范式和新的动态。
Original English **Bob**: I've our model has always been synonymous that growth only occurs with **total headcount growth**. Now it's actually splitting. We can grow in this part, the client facing side, and we can shrink in this part and have aggregate growth in total. And that's, you know, that's a new paradigm and a new new dynamic.
**Jason**: 我们在风险投资中也看到了这种情况。你我都在那个时代经历过，那时你给一个团队300万美元，他们会在18个月后回来，把钱花在**数据中心**和组建一个20人、30人的团队上。然后我们会在18个月后看到产品的第一个版本。而现在是30亿美元。
Original English **Jason**: We're seeing this in venture. You and I were around for the days where you'd give a team $3 million and they would come back in 18 months having spent it on **data centers** and building a team of 20 people, 30 people. Then we'd see the first version of the product 18 months later. And then the three billion now.
**Hamont**: 是的，但这太疯狂了，用更少的资源完成更多的事情。那么，我们是否担心社会和我们行业向社会传达这种变化的能力？因为如果你在10年前告诉一位普通的商业高管，准备好在业务的这一侧多雇佣25%的人，而在业务的另一侧裁掉25%的人。在同一个18个月内，他们会崩溃的。
Original English **Hamont**: Yeah, it's but it's it's insane just how much more is getting done with less. And so do we worry about society and our industry's ability to communicate to society this change? Because if you were to tell an average business executive 10 years ago, prepare to hire 25% more people on this side of the business and cut 25% on this side of the business. In the same 18-month period, their head would explode.
**Jason**: 完全正确。
Original English **Jason**: Exactly.
**Hamont**: 什么？为什么？怎么会这样？这毫无道理。然后年轻人毕业了，他们发出100、200份简历，却找不到工作。10年前我们坐在这里，每个从像样的学校毕业的学生都会说：“我收到了**Uber**、**Coinbase**和**Google**的offer。我应该选择哪个，年薪15万美元？”而现在这些offer已经不存在了。那么，我们作为一个行业如何更好地沟通？对于即将进入职场的年轻人，有什么建议？
Original English **Hamont**: What? Why? How come? It doesn't make any sense. And then young people are graduating and they're sending out a 100 200 resumes getting no job offers. We were sitting here 10 years ago. every graduate from a decent school was like, I have an **Uber**, a **Coinbase**, and a **Google** offer. Which one should I take for 150K? And those offers just aren't there. So, how do we communicate better as an industry? And then what's the advice to young people coming into the workforce?
### AI时代的创新与教育 **Hamont**: 是的，你看，嗯，我本来想说**硅谷**的每家公司，但更广泛地说，在科技行业，在初创企业行业，它是什么？它本质上看起来像一个拥有大量工程师的C型公司。但在一个代码**自写**的世界里，下一个层次的**创新**是什么？这些公司实际上会做什么？我认为这最终是我们正在经历的转型，关于**创新**到底意味着什么。它将不再是关于能够快速编写代码。它将更多地是关于我们如何系统地将这种能力引入世界。回到你开场时关于**模糊性**的观点，因为我们不知道这些技术的能力，也不知道世界正在如何形成。存在很多**模糊性**。所以对我来说，那些做得非常好的公司，以及我们指导创始人的方式，很大一部分是成为**迭代式**的，不断改变，不断前进，而不是像以前那样，变得精确，找到这个狭窄的优势，创造你的**增长循环**，然后去建立一家公司。现在是不断**迭代**，为了让客户给你**迭代**的许可，这归结为**信任**和**关系**。所以那些非常善于与客户互动，建立信任关系并说：“嘿，我们将一起解决这个问题。我们知道如何利用这项技术，但我们真的不知道它会走向何方，也不知道可能性是什么。”我们会共同创造吗？所以我总是给出的建议是，一切都关乎**激进协作**。在下一个阶段，我们必须共同解决这个问题，不同的**利益相关者**，所有接触一个系统的人，都在弄清楚这对他们意味着什么，然后它对整体优化和我们能用它进行的**转型**意味着什么。
Original English **Hamont**: Yeah, look, um, every company in I was just say **Silicon Valley**, but broadly in the tech industry, in the startup industry, what was it? Essentially, it looks like a C corp with a bunch of engineers. But in a world where code **self-writes**, what what is that next level **innovation**? What are these companies actually going to do? I think that's ultimately the transition we're going through in what does **innovation** actually mean. It's going to be less about being able to write code fat. It's much more going to be about systemically how do we adopt this into the world and capabilities to your point about **ambiguity** in the opening because we don't know about the capabilities of these technologies or the how the world's shaping up. There's a lot of **ambiguity**. So to me the companies that do really well and the the guide the way we guide the founders a lot of it is become **iterative** constantly change constantly move forward as opposed to what used to be before was become precise find this narrow edge create your **growth loop** and go build a company. Now it's like constantly **iterate** and in order to have the customers give you the license to **iterate** comes down to **trust** and **relationships**. So founders that are very good at engaging with customers, building trusting relationships and say, "Hey, we're going to go figure this out together. We know how to leverage this technology, but we don't really know how where it leads and what's what the possibilities are." Will we **co-create**? And so it the advice I always give is it's all about **radical collaboration**. In this next phase, we got to figure this out together where different **stakeholders** that all touch a system are figuring out what this means to them and then what it means in terms of an overall optimization and the **transformation** that we can do with it.
**Bob**: 你知道，这其中可能有一个令人兴奋的部分，因为我认为，你把它描述为毕业生如何进入劳动力市场，以及这是否变得越来越困难。我们做了一些工作，结果表明，在一个**AI**融入的世界中，人们需要什么样的技能？从雇主的角度来看，不是初创企业，而是更大规模的企业。**模型**不能做什么？因此，**人类**将扮演什么角色？这项工作尚未完成，但得出了三个关键想法。**模型**不能做什么？**抱负**，设定正确的**抱负**。你是去近地轨道？还是去月球？还是去火星？这是一种独特的人类能力。那么，你如何寻找关于**抱负**以及让其他人相信**抱负**的技能？
Original English **Bob**: you know, one maybe um exciting part to this because I I think you know, you framed it as you're a graduate and how do you get into the workforce and is it getting tougher and um we we did a little bit of work that said um what kind of skills are folks going to need in an **AI** infused world, right? From an employer's point of view, less the the startup, but you're more an atscale enterprise. What can the **models** not do? And so therefore, what skills will **humans** play? And the work isn't done but but came back with with kind of three key ideas. Um what can the **models** not do? **Aspire**, set the right **aspiration**. Do you go to low earth orbit? Do you go to the moon? Do you go to Mars? That's a uniquely **human capability**. So how do you look for the skills about **aspiring** and getting others to believe in the **aspiration**?
**Jason**: 所以是**领导力**和**目标设定**。
Original English **Jason**: So **leadership** and **goal setting**
**Bob**: 人类。
Original English **Bob**: human
**Jason**: 人类。
Original English **Jason**: human
**Bob**: **判断力**，对吧？我们在这个房间里看到了很多关于评估的东西。但这些**模型**中没有对错之分。那么，你如何设定正确的参数？**架构**，基于公司价值观，基于社会规范，等等。你如何培养设定正确参数的技能？最后，真正的**创造力**，对吧？**模型**是**推理模型**。下一步最有可能是什么？你如何思考那些**正交**的东西？所以我们与大型企业正在做的一些工作，如果你相信其中一些，它可以让你重新审视你对人才来源的一些假设。它实际上意味着你上过哪所学校变得不那么重要了。那么，你是否开始寻找原始的**内在特质**？你能否扩大基础？你是否可以真正地看看，以技术背景为例，不是你从哪所大学毕业的，而是你的**GitHub**个人资料是什么样的？让我们真正地关注内容。这是否真的可以开始意味着更广泛的人群可以通过不同的途径进入劳动力市场？
Original English **Bob**: **judgment**, right? And we've seen a lot around in this room eval. But there's no right and wrong in these **models**. And so how do you set the right parameters? The **architecture** um based on firm values, based on societal norms, whatever. How do you build the skills to set what the right parameters are? And then finally, true **creativity**, right? The **models** are **inference models**. The next most likely step, how do you think about **orthogonal** stuff? And so some of the work we've been doing with large enterprises, if you believe in some of that, it can take you back to challenging some of your assumptions on where you look for talent. It actually means that where you went to school matters a lot less. And so, do you start looking for raw **intrinsics**? Can you widen the base? Can you actually look at, let's take a tech background, not which university you graduated from, but what does your **GitHub profile** look like? Let's actually get to the content. And could that actually start meaning that a wider set of people can enter the workforce with different pathways?
**Hamont**: 你说的一点非常引起共鸣，那就是关于**创造力**。因为当我们上大学的时候，一切都是关于如何很好地解决问题，对吧？而现在，在一个我们拥有这种可以为我们解决问题的技术的世界里。这实际上是关于提出正确的问题。这就像回到了**苏格拉底式对话**。它关乎**创造力**，谁能最好地想象世界会是什么样子，然后利用这些技术去塑造世界朝着那个方向发展。回到你关于**愿景**和教育我们孩子的观点，你知道，我经常被问到这个问题，你希望你的孩子如何成长？这就像学习如何提出正确的问题，而不是解决如何处理难题，这是一种非常不同的心态，它关乎**好奇心**，有点像回到我们小时候。它关乎挑战你的**好奇心**。我们能否真正地重新思考我们的**教学法**，以便我们能够培养下一代更多地具备这种能力，而不是像今天我们的系统那样，在周三早上8点，我正在分解多项式，因为我正在上七年级。
Original English **Hamont**: One of the things you said which really resonates is around **creativity** because what when you know we were going to college it was all about learn how to solve problems really well right and and and now in a world where we have this technology that can solve problems for us. It really is about asking the right questions. It's like going back to that **socratic dialogue**. It is about **creativity** and who can imagine best what the world's going to look like and then leverage these technologies to go shape the world towards that. To your point about **vision** and and teaching our kids, you know, I get this question a lot about what do you want how do you want your kids growing up? It's like learning how to ask the right questions versus solving how to you know work on hard problems is a it's a very different mindset and it is about **curiosity** and kind of back to being kids when you're growing up. It is about challenging your **curiosity**. Can we actually rethink our **pedagogy** in a way that we can develop this next generation to be more that than it's 8:00 on Wednesday morning and I'm going to factor polinomials cuz I'm in you know 7th grade which is what our system looks like today.
**Jason**: 是的。我一直给年轻人的建议是，没有人会来帮你。没有培训计划。你必须为自己创造。
Original English **Jason**: Yeah. The the advice I've been giving to young people is there's nobody coming for you. There's no training program. You have to make that for yourself
**Jason**: 不要带着简历从前门进去。直接给公司CEO发邮件。
Original English **Jason**: and do not go in through the front door with a resume. just email the CEO of the company
**Jason**: 重新设计他们的登录页面，然后说：“我认为这三件事可以做得更好，我听了你在这个播客上的演讲。我认为你们公司很棒。我很想来这里工作，我做了这个**概念验证**工作。”现在，人们会说：“我为什么要免费工作来获得一份工作，以证明我确实拥有有意义的技能？”你将无法进入培训计划。现在**美国企业**中的很多人，特别是那些负责入职培训的人，他们觉得雇佣一个人并培训他们所需的时间会比构建一个**代理**更长。我可以构建一个**代理**。那些需要我培训的进入职场的年轻人很烦人。设置一个只做工作的**代理**很容易。这就是现在场上的游戏规则，人们不想谈论它。这意味着，要想脱颖而出，你必须展现**胆识**。你必须展现**动力**。你必须展现**热情**。哪所大学在做这些？哪所大学在教授这些？哪门课程是这些？
Original English **Jason**: and redesign their landing page and say, "These are the three things that I think could be better and I saw you speak on this podcast. I think your company's incredible. I would love to come work there and I did this **spec work**." Now, people are like, "Why should I do free work to get a job to prove you actually have a skill that is meaningful?" You're not going to be able to get into a training program. So many folks now in **corporate America**, especially the the people who are onboarding people are just like hiring somebody and training them is going to take longer than building an **agent**. I can build an **agent**. Young people coming into the workforce I have to train are annoying. Setting up an **agent** who just does the work is easy. That's the game on the field right now that people don't want to talk about. Which means to stand out, you're going to have to show **chutzpah**. You're going to have to show **drive**. You're going to have to show **passion**. And what college is doing that? What college is teaching that? What course is that?
**Hamont**: 我们看，我认为在**韧性**方面存在巨大差距。是的，**韧性**。因为你所拥有的基础是，你会被打倒。
Original English **Hamont**: We look, I think there's a massive gap in **resilience**. Yes. You know, **resilience**. Because what you've got under that is you're going to get knocked down.
**Jason**: 是的。对。问题是，你能否重新站起来？
Original English **Jason**: Yeah. Right. The question is, do you get back up?
**Hamont**: 以及你如何重新站起来？我认为今天的**教育系统**不一定能培养机构或个人的**韧性能力**。如果我们能挥舞魔杖，只是在这里完全跑题一下，2026年的**教育系统**应该是什么样子？因为你正在收购企业，你在医疗保健领域有一家。这在历史上是三个最难改变的行业之一。在美国，另外两个监管最多、最昂贵、最困难，并且美国人受苦最深的是住房和教育。这是三个大问题。当我竞选总统时，这将是我的政纲。
Original English **Hamont**: And how do you get back up? And I think the the **educational system** today doesn't necessarily build institutional or individual capability in **resilience**. If we could wave a magic wand, just to go off on a complete tangent here, what should the **education system** look like in 2026? Because you're buying businesses, you have one in healthcare. That's one of the three hardest businesses to make change in historically. The other two here in America that have the most regulation, are the most expensive, and are the hardest, and that Americans are suffering under the most are housing and education. Those are the three big ones. When I run for president, that's going to be my platform.
**Jason**: 就是这三个。我要解决这三个问题。但现在请你为我们解决教育问题。你接下来会收购一所大学吗？
Original English **Jason**: is those three. I'm going to solve those three. But go ahead and solve education for us right now. And are you going to buy a college next
**Hamont**: 转型？
Original English **Hamont**: transform?
**Jason**: 基本上收购所有不赚钱的企业。我们是要走向那个方向吗？
Original English **Jason**: Basically buying business all the businesses that make no money. Is that where we're going?
**Hamont**: 嗯，我会说...
Original English **Hamont**: Um I I would say
**Jason**: 哦，那些最...
Original English **Jason**: oh the businesses that are the most
**Hamont**: 是的。但实际上是那些需要持续最久的企业。我是这么看的。所以关于教育，我们花22年学习，然后花40年工作，这种想法是错误的。如果**技术学习**和**技术发展**如此动态。那么，从四年制大学转向**终身大学**怎么样？这实际上是你与学习的关系，它是一个**终身技能提升**和**再培训**的成果体验。我们之前也谈过这个。我的意思是，有一些创新的大学校长正在思考这个问题，首先，如果你是一所大学，并且你实际上拥有一个客户或学生，那么更好的业务，更好的**终身价值**，而不是只为你支付四年学费。而且，对于我们来说，能够拥有这种能力并不断学习这些**技术**正在做什么，以及**劳动力**如何演变，以及如何在机会方面保持领先，这更有用。所以学习必须变得更加**流动**，我们需要成为一个**终身学习者社区**，因为我们正在适应一个**AI**正在渗透的世界。
Original English **Hamont**: Yeah. But the ones that need to endure for the longest actually. That's the way I look at it. So here's the thing about education. This idea that we spend 22 years learning and then we spend 40 years working is a broken idea. if if the the **learning of technology** and the **development of technology** is going to be so dynamic. So what about going from a four-year college to a **lifelong college** which is actually your relationship with learning is that it's a **lifelong skilling and reskilling outcome experience**. We've talked about this before as well. I mean there's there's there's some innovative college presidents that are thinking about that which is first of all better business better **lifetime value** if you're a college and you actually have a a client or a student you know for perpetuity versus paying you for four years. And much more useful for us to be able to go and have that capability and constantly learn what these cap technologies are doing and how the **workforce** is evolving and how to stay ahead in terms of where the opportunity is. This so learning has to become much more **fluid** and we need to become a **community of lifelong learners** as as we adapt to a world where **AI** is being diffusing you know through us over the years.
**Bob**: 我只想补充一点，我同意你的看法，你知道，大约700年前建立的系统是围绕高固定成本设计的，图书馆和教授，然后让你在有限的时间内学习，然后你就可以有效地进入劳动力市场。如果你开始思考**技能半衰期**越来越短，我们在我们的全球研究所做了一些工作，结果表明，对于雇主来说，你在技能方面给予员工的**投资回报率**在过去30年里缩短了大约一半，以前大约是七年回报，现在不到四年，大约3.6年回报，而且随着事物变化，这个时间只会越来越短。所以如果你相信这一点，我认为你就会开始转向，我们是在教人们不断学习新事物，而不是掌握某个特定主题吗？你是否具备这种能力？嗯，我们现在已经关注的一件事，我提到了4万和2.5万，这是我们**McKinsey**截至上周拥有的**人类**数量和**个性化代理**数量，我认为我们将在今年年底前达到**对等**。所以你实际上正在部署可以执行完整360度可信赖工作的**代理**。
Original English **Bob**: And I would just add I'm I'm with you on this and you know that the system built close to 700 years ago was designed around a high fixed cost libraries and professors to then take you out for a a finite period of time to learn and then effectively you're set off into the workforce. I if you start to think about the **half-life of skills** getting shorter and shorter and we've done some work at our global institute that said for an employer the **return on investment** that you give an employee in terms of skills has shrunk by about half over the last 30 years used to be about seven years return it's less than four years so about 3.6 six years now return and that's only getting shorter and shorter as things change. So if you if you believe that I think you start to pivot to are we teaching people to continue to learn new things as opposed to master a particular subject. Do you have that ability? Um, one of the things that um, we've now indexed on and I mentioned this 40,000 and 25,000 that is the number of **humans** we have and the number of **personalized agents** we have as of last week in **McKinsey** and I think we'll be at **parody** before the end of uh, by the end of this year. So you're literally deploying **agents** that can do a full 360 degree trusted job function.
**Jason**: 绝对是。
Original English **Jason**: Absolutely.
**Jason**: 它在哪里运作得很好，在哪里运作得不好？
Original English **Jason**: Where is it working really well and where is it not working well?
**Bob**: 当你有一个特定的领域，你知道最终可以创造价值的地方，它就能发挥作用。所以对我们来说，那是在**结构化问题解决**中。它围绕着**搜索和综合**。它围绕着更有效的**沟通**，这些类型的领域。但我想说的是，技能是，你是否正在培养人们通过利用**代理**成为**超人**？
Original English **Bob**: It works when you have a specific um domain area that you know ultimately where value can be created. So for us that's in **structured problem solving**. It's in around **search and synthesis**. It's around more effective **communication** these types of of domain areas. But where I was going with this so the skill is are you skilling people to actually become **superhuman** by leveraging **agents**.
**Jason**: 对，对吧？那成为一种技能。我认为我们现在并没有真正地提供这种能力。它有点随机，或者有时实际上在课堂上被排除在外，而不是被接纳并弄清楚如何利用它。
Original English **Jason**: Right. right? That becomes a skill. And I don't think we're actually equipping that right now. It's a bit more random or sometimes actually excluded in the classroom as opposed to embracing it and figuring out how do you actually take advantage of
**Jason**: 这几乎就像我们需要训练人们从成为**管弦乐队**的一部分，到每个人都成为**指挥**。
Original English **Jason**: it. It's almost like we're we need to train people to go from being part of the **orchestra** to everybody being the **conductor**
**Jason**: 每个人都有自己的**代理管弦乐队**为他们工作。你知道，我总是关注初创企业，因为它们资源有限。我在新加坡的一次晚宴上，有十几位创始人，我说：“最近60天内有人雇佣过人吗？”他们都举手了。然后我说：“好的，你们中有多少人是人力资源人员撰写了职位描述？”没有人举手。我说：“你们中有多少人是输入**LLM**，让它写职位描述的？”所有12个人都举手了。所以现在你认为，仅仅是**人力资源**，它的整个**阻碍和解决**过程就是撰写职位描述和筛选简历。然后我问了下一个问题，你们是如何筛选收到的简历的？他们说，其中一半人构建了**代理**。
Original English **Jason**: and everybody having their own **orchestra of agents** working for them. And you know, I always look to startups because they're resource constrained. And I was at a dinner in Singapore and I had a dozen founders there and I said, "Has anybody hired anybody in the last, you know, 60 days?" They all raised their hands and then I said, "Okay, um how many of you have an **HR** person who wrote the job description?" Nobody raises hand. I said, "How many of you typed into an **LLM**, write a job description for this?" All 12 hands go up. So now you think just **HR** the entire **blocking and tackling** of it has been writing the job description and sorting through the resume. So then I asked the next question which was how did you sort through the resumes coming in and they said half of them had built **agents**
**Hamont**: 嗯。
Original English **Hamont**: Mhm.
**Jason**: 使用**AI**来筛选简历并进行排名。我说：“哇，天哪，这就像打字室、收发室、照片室一样，对于那些40岁以下的人来说。我们曾经有一个房间叫做**打字室**。然后有一个叫做**收发室**，包裹和信使都在那里。所有这些都消失了。那层楼被重新分配了。我认为我们将会看到**人力资源部门**、**法律部门**都将被压缩，这真的很有趣。”
Original English **Jason**: to sort through the resumes and stack rank them using **AI** and I said whoa holy cow like this is like the **typing pool** the **mail room** the photo for those of you who are under 40 years old. We had a room which was called the **typing pool**. Then we had one called the **mail room** where packages came in messengers all those went away. that floor of the building got redeployed and I think that's what we're going to see like the **HR department** the **legal department** all getting compressed really interesting
**Hamont**: 这已经发生了，我认为当我们考虑我们自己业务的转型时，我们基本上会说每个部门都需要有**AI队友**。现在，这些**AI队友**是**副驾驶**还是**驾驶员**？你能否完全授权他们去做事情，或者他们只是为你提供效率？这取决于**技术**的运作情况、问题的复杂程度、问题的严重程度。所以，例如在**医疗保健**领域，如果是生死攸关的决策，你希望**人类**今天做出这些决策，因为这项**技术**还不够可靠。所以，我认为，拥有一个框架，但要说你的每个部门都将拥有这些**AI代理**。如果你不这样做，那么你就是在为下一个阶段做准备，而这正是你所看到的，你已经将达到一对一的比例，这是一个巨大的比例。
Original English **Hamont**: it's already happening and I think as we think about our own transformation for our own business we basically say every department needs to have **AI teammates** now are those **AI teammates** like the **co-pilot** or **pilot** can you fully empower them to do stuff or are they giving you efficiency that depends on how well the **technology** works how complex the problem is how severe the problem is so like in **healthcare** for example if it's life and death decisions, you want **humans** making those today because that **technology** isn't as reliable. So, so I think sort of having a framework but saying every one of your departments is going to have these **AI agents**. Um, if you're not doing that then you're not preparing yourself for this next phase and that's that's a lot of what you're see you're already going to be one to one that's an enormous ratio.
**Bob**: 嗯，但是**Jason**，我认为你之前提到的问题是，所有这些潜力都存在，但人们没有充分思考其在企业模型中的**动态影响**，而不是**静态影响**。所以**静态**可能是，嘿，所有这些部门，我可以应用这个，我会大幅缩减它，我会减少组织中的层级，我可能会减缓入职招聘。回到你的观点，**动态**是，好的，但你的公司在五年后会是什么样子？
Original English **Bob**: Well, and but the problem I think **Jason** that you alluded to earlier in this is there's all this potential but folks aren't thinking through the **dynamic implications** in their enterprise model versus the **static**. So the **static** might be hey there's all these departments I can apply this I'll radically shrink it I'll reduce the number of layers in an organization I may slow hiring on the inbound to your point the **dynamic** is okay but what does your company look like in five years time
**Jason**: 我也经常问CEO的是，好的，你正在做所有这些事情，那么你的职业发展路径是什么？
Original English **Jason**: and what I also often ask a CEO is okay you're doing all this stuff what's the pathway to your job
**Jason**: 在未来的组织中，人们如何获得你的职位？你曾经有一条路径，但那条路径将不再相同。但如果你不招聘新人，你就无法持续地横向引入CEO。这简直就像为了省钱而把梯子的最下面四级砍掉。
Original English **Jason**: how does somebody get to your job in the org of the future you had a pathway it's not going to be that same pathway but if you don't hire inbound folks You can't continually laterally bring in a CEO. It's literally like taking the the bottom four rungs off the ladder to save money today.
**Bob**: 然后每个人都跳起来试图进入组织。这就像，好吧，我们没有那条路。你必须非常认真地考虑这项投资。感觉**AI**的前两年是关于裁员，我们真的需要思考，嘿，这不仅仅是关于效率，更是关于**机会**。
Original English **Bob**: And then everybody's jumping up trying to get in the organization. It's like, well, we don't have a path there. You're going to have to be really thoughtful about making that investment. And it feels like the first two years of **AI** were about cutting jobs and we really need to think about, hey, it's not just about efficiency, it's about **opportunity**.
**Jason**: 完全正确。那另外25%是什么？对。我认为这就是我们必须投入的地方。
Original English **Jason**: Exact. What's that other 25%. Right. That's what I think we got to lean into.
### 实体AI：自动驾驶与机器人 **Jason**: 让我们在这里稍微岔开一下，在我打开我的盒子之前。
Original English **Jason**: Let's take a little diversion here before I open my box.
**Hamont**: 那个黑盒子。
Original English **Hamont**: The black box,
**Jason**: 我的盒子，里面装着过去20年**CES**所有伟大的创新。嗯，**实体AI**。我们在这里非常理智地讨论了企业中发生的事情，软件中发生的事情。但是，嗯，**自动驾驶**可能是主题。我将把**2026年CES**称为**自动驾驶CES**。我将把**2027年**称为**机器人**，特别是**人形机器人**。我们正在开始，显然人们正在展示所有这些令人难以置信的**机器人**，但我认为消费者将在2027年体验到它们，但消费者今年正在体验**自动驾驶**。**Nuro**和**Lucid**拥有令人难以置信的产品。**Zoox**也在这里。显然，**Elon**正在用**Roboaxi**做着伟大的事情。感觉他正在接近一个解决方案，并且非常接近。**Waymo**显然处于领先地位，但你也有**百度**、**阿里巴巴**、**Pony.ai**。这是一场全球性的竞争，2026年世界在**自动驾驶**方面会是什么样子？以及这些的任何**二级和三级影响**？然后对**机器人**做同样的事情。
Original English **Jason**: my box here of all the great **CES** innovations over the last 20 years. Um, **physical AI**. We've been talking here very cerebrally about what's happening in enterprises, what's happening in software. But, um, you have **self-driving** is probably the theme. I would I would dub **2026 CES** as **self-driving CES**. I will dub **2027** as **robotics**, **humanoid robotics** specifically. We're starting, obviously people are showing off all these incredible **robots** here, but I think consumers will be experiencing them in 27, but consumers are experiencing this year **self-driving**. **Nuro** and **Lucid** have an incredible product. **Zoox** has been here. Obviously, **Elon**'s doing great things with **Roboaxi**. Feels like he's closing in on a solution and getting very close. **Waymo** obviously is leading the pack but then you also have **Baidu** **Alibaba** we write **Pony.ai** this is a global race what will the world look like in 2026 in terms of **self-driving** and then any **second and third order impacts** of those and then do the same for **robotics**
**Hamont**: 如果你今天环游世界，对吧？你去欧洲，你去中东，那里，你知道，那里专注于有趣的**奢侈品**，有市场。**BYD**和许多这些中国公司实际上正在深入渗透到各地，因为这些公司拥有所有的功能和特性，而且它们的成本非常低。所以有一点是，**汽车行业**的动态，以及欧洲汽车制造商都非常沮丧，因为他们不知道如何与中国汽车行业竞争。美国拥有**创新**，**自动驾驶**就是**创新**，它让你能够说，下一代成功的**汽车公司**将利用这个**平台转变**。美国拥有**技术**，但它没有**制造能力**，无法真正做到像中国制造商那样**成本效益**高。所以，要弄清楚全球**汽车行业**的秩序将如何重新洗牌并不容易。所以，**实体AI**的一部分以及**AI**在**制造业**中的应用，是为了弄清楚你如何在美国设计和制造下一代产品，以模仿中国的**成本优势**，这样我们的**创新**才能为我们带来数据，让我们再次成为这个下一阶段的全球领导者。所以我们有一家公司叫做**Rebuild Manufacturing**，它正在专注于此。例如，在这方面需要大量关注，因为如果**自动驾驶**不具备**成本效益**。是的，我们中的一些人会购买它，但它永远不会成为主流产品，因为**成本**，我的意思是，有一个**保留价格**，它真正改变了**汽车行业**的需求模式，你可能也有这方面的好数据。我们应该谈谈这个。但我们必须把**AI**做好，也必须把**制造成本**做好。
Original English **Hamont**: if you go around the world today right you you go to Europe you go to the Middle East where um you know there's a there is focus on interesting **luxury products** there's a market for it **BYD** and a lot of these Chinese companies are actually penetrating deeply everywhere because these these cap these companies have all the features and functionality and they're really low cost and so one thing is that the the the dynamic of the **auto industry** and European auto makers are all very dejected because they don't know how they're going to compete with Chinese industry. US has **innovation** **self-driving** be **innovation** which allows you to say the next generation of winning **automotive companies** um will take advantage of this **platform shift**. US has a **technology** but it doesn't have the **manufacturing** capabilities to actually say can you actually make it as **cost-effectively** as a Chinese maker is going to be be. So it's not it's not as easy to figure out how the the world order around **automotive** is going to re shift around the world. and and so part of the **physical AI** and the use of **AI in manufacturing** is to figure out how do you design and manufacture um products next generation products right here in the US in a way that mimics the **cost advantages of China** so that then our **innovation** can then carry the data for us to be the global leaders yet again in this next phase so we have a company **Rebuild Manufacturing** that's focusing on this for example there's a lot of focus that needs to get on on that because if it's **self-driving** and it's not **cost effective**. Yeah, some of us will buy it, but it's never going to be a mainstream product because **cost** has I mean there's a **reserve price** that really shifts the demand patterns around **automotive** and you probably have good data on this as well. We should talk about that. But we we got to get the **AI** right and we got to get the **manufacturing cost** right as well.
**Bob**: 不，我认为这方面正在大幅降低**成本曲线**。**Jason**，我同意你的看法。我认为在接下来的12到24个月里，我们将看到一场巨大的**转型**。我认为这场竞争已经开始了，对吧？这场竞争在**西方技术栈**和**中国技术栈**之间展开，然后在世界其他地区，这将是一个有趣的战场，看看它将如何发展。但你我之前也谈过这个。我认为这是一个巨大的趋势。我认为一个更大的趋势将是**机器人技术**的趋势，而且不仅仅是用于**人机交互**，而是用于**制造业**。当你考虑到西方世界面临的挑战时。以美国为例。我当时正在与一家大型**合同制造商**的CEO交谈，她现在有5万个美国**制造业工作岗位**空缺，她无法填补。
Original English **Bob**: No, I think that there's a massive coming down the **cost curve** on this. I'm with you, **Jason**. I think we're going to see literally over the next 12 to 24 months a massive **transformation**. I think the race is a foot, right? The race is a foot between a let's say a **western stack** and a **Chinese stack** on this and then in rest of world it'll be interesting as a battleground to see where that plays out. But and you and I were were talking a little bit about this. I think that is a massive trend. I think a larger trend will be the trend um to **robotics** and and not just for **human interaction** but in **manufacturing** and and when you think about the challenges that um the western world faces. So take the US. I was talking to the CEO of one of the large **contract manufacturers** and she has 50,000 **job openings** right now for US **manufacturing jobs** in America that she can't fill.
**Bob**: 对吧？我们的人口结构在这方面并没有变得更好。德国的情况甚至更糟。韩国，
Original English **Bob**: Right? And our demographics aren't getting better on this front. Germany is even worse situation. Korea,
**Jason**: 德国，
Original English **Jason**: Germany,
**Bob**: 就像另一个层次。
Original English **Bob**: like another level.
**Jason**: 是的。
Original English **Jason**: Yeah.
**Bob**: 我认为，以你所说的**成本点**建立**弹性供应链**的唯一方法是，**机器人技术**将是核心。而且这场竞争，我认为，是完全开放的。韩国在**每名工人拥有机器人数量**方面处于领先地位，对吧？他们现在大约是1比10。德国和中国并列第二，然后美国远远落后于第三。所以这是一场真正的竞争。你谈到了**自主性**。我实际上会跳到**机器人技术**，并想知道我该怎么做。
Original English **Bob**: And I think the only way that you build **resilient supply chains** at the **cost point** that you're talking about is it's going to be **robotics** at the heart. And and this race, I think, is wide open. **Korea** leads the way in **robots per per worker**, right? They're about 1 to 10 right now. **Germany** and **China** are tied at second and the US then is a distant third. And so there's a real race. You talked about the **autonomy** thing. I would actually jump to the **robotics** thing and wonder how do I
**Hamont**: **机器人技术**的一个问题是，当你构建**LLM**时，你可以将它们倾倒在云端，用**ChatGPT**进行实验，然后它变得无处不在。如果你有好的**机器人模型**，下一步是什么？你没有一个像**API基础设施**那样的**硬件能力**来快速传播这些模型。所以，有很多东西需要构建。所以我实际上认为**机器人技术**的普及速度会比人们想象的要慢。但如果你想在**制造业**中领先，并因此在**汽车行业**等行业中拥有核心优势，那么在**机器人技术**方面领先是必不可少的。没有其他办法。
Original English **Hamont**: one of the issues in **robotics** is so so when you build the **LLMs** you could dump them in the cloud experiment with something called **ChatGPT** and becomes pervasive. If you have good **robotics models** what's next? You don't have a **hardware** um capability that's like an **API infrastructure** that diffuses those models fast. So like there's a lot that needs to get built. So I actually think **robotics** will be slower than people think in terms of really taking hold. But it's essential to go lead in that if you're going to lead in **manufacturing** and therefore have that core advantage to play up the stack in industries like **automotive**. There's no other way to do it.
**Jason**: 是的。我不想**点名**，但两周前的周日，我和**Elon**去了**Tesla**，参观了**Optimus**实验室。周日上午10点，有很多人在工作。
Original English **Jason**: Yeah. I don't want to I don't want to **name drop** but I went two weeks two Sundays ago I went to **Tesla** with **Elon** and I went and visited the **Optimus lab**. There were a large number of people working on a Sunday at 10 a.m.
**Hamont**: 是的。
Original English **Hamont**: Yeah.
**Jason**: 我看到了**Optimus 3**。我现在可以告诉你，没有人会记得**Tesla**曾经造过汽车。他们只会记得**Optimus**，以及他将制造十亿个**Optimus**。它将是人类历史上最**具变革性的技术产品**，因为**LLM**将使这些产品能够**理解世界**。
Original English **Jason**: And I saw **Optimus 3**. I can tell you now, nobody will remember that **Tesla** ever made a car. They will only remember the **Optimus** and that he is going to make a billion of those. And it is going to be the most **transformative technology product** ever made in the history of humanity because what **LLMs** are going to enable those products to do is **understand the world**
**Jason**: 然后做我们不想做的事情。
Original English **Jason**: and then do things in the world that we don't want to do.
**Hamont**: 是的。
Original English **Hamont**: Yeah.
**Jason**: 我相信人类与**Optimus**的比例将是一比一。我认为他已经赢了，但我不想**泄露**。但我确实有一个盒子。我们去看看盒子。
Original English **Jason**: I I believe it'll be a one-to-one ratio of humans to **optimists**. And I think he's already won, but I don't want to speak out of school. But I do have a box. We go to the box.
### 科技回顾与未来展望 **Jason**: 我有一个盒子。这些都是我们都曾见过的非常有趣的技术。有多少人拥有过其中之一？我的意思是，**Michael Douglas**让它闻名。还记得**《华尔街》**中在海滩上做交易的场景吗？还有一个很棒的**AT&T**“你将”广告。还记得**AT&T**的“你将”广告吗？这就是其中之一。你将能够在海滩上远程工作。今天它的等价物是什么？今天它的等价物是什么？你认为，你知道，我们会在30年后回顾今年并嘲笑什么？这是80年代的东西，所以我想这是30年前。我们今天都着迷的东西，我们将来会觉得有点尴尬的是什么？
Original English **Jason**: I have a box. And these are all really interesting technologies that we all got to see. How many people owned one of these? I mean, **Michael Douglas** made this famous. Remember **Wall Street** on the beach making trades? And there was an amazing **You Will commercial**. Remember the **AT&T You Will commercial**? And this was one of them. You'll be able to work remote from the beach. What is the equivalent of this today? What is the equivalent of this today? What do you think, you know, we're going to look back on this year and laugh at in 30 years? This is something from the 80s, so I guess this is 30 years ago. What are we going to look at that we're all enamored with today that we'll kind of get a little gau out of?
**Bob**: 嗯，你知道吗？我告诉你，顺便说一句，我喜欢它。上面写着“加州移动电话”。那是相关的品牌。关于这个，我有两个记忆。一个是**羡慕**。
Original English **Bob**: Well, you know what? I'll I'll tell you, by the way, I love it. It says **California mobile phone** on this. That was like the brand associated. And two im two memories come to mind for me on this. One was **Envy**
**Bob**: 因为当我刚开始工作时，只有最资深的人才能拥有这种东西，我不能，对吧？就像我想要的时候，他们就像你抓住的时候，我想要一个。每分钟4美元。当时是每分钟三四美元？
Original English **Bob**: because when I started only the most senior people could get one of these and I couldn't, right? Like I want they're just like when you grabbed like I want one of those. $4 a minute. What was three or$4 dollars a minute?
**Jason**: 而且电池续航大约30分钟。
Original English **Jason**: And some battery lasts about 30 minutes.
**Bob**: 完全正确。一些新来的同事没有这种东西。
Original English **Bob**: Exactly. Some new associate doesn't get one of these.
**Jason**: 你什么时候拥有第一部手机的？
Original English **Jason**: Did you when did you have your first mobile phone?
**Hamont**: 我太年轻了，不适合这个。
Original English **Hamont**: I'm too young for this.
**Jason**: 你太年轻了。你真是个骗子。你和我一样有**StarTAC**。和我一样有**StarTAC**。
Original English **Jason**: Too young for that. You're such a liar. You had the **star tag** like me. Had **star tag** like me.
**Bob**: 但第二个，也是臭名昭著的，是我们曾经有一个不幸的巨大失败，我们做了一个项目，它在很久以前为**AT&T**发表过，在80年代中期，说这些东西永远不会流行起来。
Original English **Bob**: But the uh but the second and this was made infamous was one of the great things unfortunately great failures that we had was we did a project and it was it was published a while ago for **AT&T** in the mid80s that said these things are never going to take off.
**Jason**: **手机**我们将真正开始。
Original English **Jason**: **Cell phones** we're going to really get going on the
**Bob**: 我不知道你为什么要用这个来打击我。
Original English **Bob**: I don't know why you burned me with this one.
**Hamont**: 顺便说一句，让我提醒一下，为了回答你的问题，今天的一些东西。
Original English **Hamont**: By the way, let me remind like something today just to answer your question.
**Hamont**: 想象一下现在正在发生的许多**眼镜创新**。这是用你的耳朵。我们正在尝试用眼睛进行创新，关于如何智能地导航，我认为在过去一年左右的时间里，有太多尝试没有成功。好了。
Original English **Hamont**: Think about like the a lot of the **eyeglass innovation** that's happening. This was with your ears. the innovation we're trying to with the eyes on how to intelligently navigate I think that there's so many attempts that have not worked in the last year or something. There we go.
**Jason**: 好的。
Original English **Jason**: All right.
**Jason**: 这是一个很好的过渡，因为这是**Google Glass**。
Original English **Jason**: It's a really good segue because here's the **Google Glass**.
**Jason**: 现在，尽管我现在看起来很滑稽，我能听到相机在拍照。
Original English **Jason**: Now, as ridiculous as I look right now and I can hear the cameras taking my picture
**Jason**: 你也不会幸免，因为你也会戴上它们。嗯，我记得**Larry**和**Sergey**开始戴着这些东西到处走。
Original English **Jason**: and you will not be spared because you'll be wearing them as well. Um I remember when **Larry** and **Sergey** started walking around with these.
**Jason**: 事实上，**Larry**，嗯，我当时在一个派对上，他戴着这些东西走上舞池，我说：“**Larry**，把它们摘下来。如果你继续戴着它们到处走，所有的女孩都会停止跳舞。”他说：“真的吗？”我说：“是的，跳舞不是那样进行的。”你不会。但如果你想想这个产品，他们为什么停止制造它？他们应该继续迭代。
Original English **Jason**: In fact, **Larry**, uh I was at a party and he came on the dance floor with these and I said, "**Larry**, take those off. All the girls are gonna stop dancing if you keep walking around with them. He goes, "Really?" I was like, "Yeah, that's not how dancing works." You don't. But if you think about this product, why did they stop making this? They should have kept iterating.
**Bob**: 这在**AR**之前就是**AR**。你直接透过它看。
Original English **Bob**: And this was **AR** before **AR**. You you see right through it.
**Jason**: 是的。超前于时代，对吧？
Original English **Jason**: Yeah. Ahead of its time, right? And
**Jason**: 来吧，**Bob**，试试看。
Original English **Jason**: go ahead and try it out, **Bob**. There you go.
**Bob**: 现在你也将永远臭名昭著。
Original English **Bob**: And now forever you will also be in infamy.
**Jason**: 好了。
Original English **Jason**: There you go.
**Jason**: 轮到你了。
Original English **Jason**: Your turn.
**Hamont**: 聪明地做。但是。
Original English **Hamont**: smart to do it. But
**Jason**: 好的，我来。但是，顺便说一句，新的也好不到哪里去。**外形**更好了，但**实用性**没有。
Original English **Jason**: all right, I'll do it. I'll But but by the way, the new ones aren't much better. The **form factor** is better, but the **utility** isn't there.
**Hamont**: 所以当你看着它时，
Original English **Hamont**: So when you look at it,
**Hamont**: 这个，今天的版本就是这个，我。
Original English **Hamont**: this this the today's version of this is what this was, I
**Jason**: 现在这里有一个。这是一个微型版本。我试图得到这个，如果有人能给我这个，我愿意支付1万美元。嗯，也许2.5万美元。**Theranos**的**一滴血检测机**。这就像他们的一个小玩意。哦。
Original English **Jason**: now here's one. This is a miniature version. I tried to get this and if anybody can get me this, I I'll pay $10,000 for it. Uh maybe $25,000. The **Theranos** **one drop blood machine**. This was like one of their chachkis. Ooh.
**Hamont**: 但实际上，你现在在**医疗保健**领域。这可能涉嫌欺诈。实际上，她（**Elizabeth Holmes**）在监狱里，我想。所以，我不想，我的意思是，也许她完全无辜。嗯，谁知道呢？嗯，我将把这种可能性放在那里。嗯，据称。嗯，但这个产品的承诺抓住了人们的想象力。少量血液就能获得大量数据。事实上，公平地说，**Elizabeth**能够用少量血液进行一些有趣的测试。这是一个很棒的产品创意。对吗？
Original English **Hamont**: But in in truth, you're now in **healthcare**. This may have been a fraud allegedly. In reality, she's in jail, I guess. So, I don't want to I mean, maybe there's a chance it was all she's innocent. Um, who knows? Um, I'll leave that possibility out there. Um, allegedly. Um, but this the promise of this captured people's imagination. A small amount of blood to get a lot of data back. And in fact, in fairness to **Elizabeth**, she was able to do a couple of interesting tests with a small amount. This was a great product idea. Correct.
**Jason**: 是的。是的。
Original English **Jason**: Yes. Yes.
**Jason**: 在接下来的10年里，会有人用**AI**创造出这样的东西吗？
Original English **Jason**: Will somebody create that with **AI** in the next 10 years?
**Hamont**: 嗯，我认为这很有可能，因为这个挑战在于你如何实际制造那些**纳米设备**，你可以用非常低的体积，并且准确地测量这些东西。技术当时不存在。所以当你回到我们的**硬件制造创新**时，我认为它们会赶上来以实现这一点，你想要这个，你想要这个能够实现**实时诊断**，想象一下现代**体检**，并对**医疗保健**进行更具**前瞻性**的预防，就像这种**普遍有效的能力**，这些**端点**将对此有用。
Original English **Hamont**: Uh I think it's very likely because the the the challenge with this is how can you actually manufacture those **nano devices** where you can take really low volumes and be accurate and measure these things. Technology wasn't there. So when you going back to our **hardware manufacturing innovations**, I think they will catch on to enable this and and you want this you you want this to be that uh you know you can have **real-time diagnostics** think about a modern **physical** and be much more **preemptive** about **healthcare** like **pervasive effective capabilities** like this these **endpoints** will be useful for that
**Jason**: 你有**Function Health**，你现在有**Superpower**。我不知道你们是否使用过这些产品。
Original English **Jason**: and you have **Function Health** you have **Superpower** now doing I don't know if you guys use either of those products
**Jason**: 但每年做一次**血液检查**，让一位**私人助理**与你讨论，每年800美元，100美元，600美元。显然，**消费者主导的医疗保健**和**Theranos**的愿景。
Original English **Jason**: but getting your **blood work** done every year having you know a **concierge** talk to you about it for butt 800 $100 a year, $600 a year. Obviously, **consumer-led healthcare** and the **Theranos vision**. I
**Hamont**: 我认为围绕**长寿**的运动正在兴起。它已经成为一种**文化现象**。所以首先，消费者有支付意愿。例如，我们有一家名为**RO**的公司，专注于**GLP1**，因为有这种意愿，它推动了创新，创造了更多像这样专注于让你保持健康的**产品**。
Original English **Hamont**: I think there's a growing movement around **longevity**. It's like become a **cultural phenomenon**. And so that's first of all, the fact that consumers have **propensity to pay**. We have a company called **RO** for example that focus on **GLP1s** because there's that propensity, it drives innovation to create more products like this that are focused on keeping you healthy.
**Jason**: 有多少人拥有过其中之一？举手。好的。有多少人衣柜里有三个这样的，却舍不得扔掉？
Original English **Jason**: How many people owned one of these? Raise your hand. All right. And how many of people have three of these in their closet that they can't throw away?
**Hamont**: 我的意思是。
Original English **Hamont**: I mean
**Jason**: 那个**键盘**。
Original English **Jason**: the **keyboard**.
**Jason**: 这是有史以来最伟大的产品。
Original English **Jason**: This was the greatest product ever.
**Hamont**: 所以我们，我们，我大学毕业后创办了一家公司。这是上面最早的非电子邮件应用程序之一。我们编写了它，它是一个用于**Red Bull**的**商品销售应用程序**。所以他们可以在商店里进行库存跟踪。这就像，这是一款很棒的产品。你知道。
Original English **Hamont**: So we we so I did a startup out of college. One of the very first apps that was non-email on this. We wrote that and it was a merch **merchandising app** for **Red Bull**. So they could actually do **inventory tracking** in a store. And this was like this is amazing product. You know the
**Jason**: 我在这个**键盘**上打字仍然更快。
Original English **Jason**: I'm I'm still faster on this **keyboard**,
**Bob**: 对吧？我的意思是，这对于**McKinsey**来说就像是你的**可卡因**。
Original English **Bob**: right? I mean this was like for **McKinsey** this was your **cocaine**.
**Hamont**: 我们有一些，这是，我们有一些非常资深的人，即使我们可能，他们也不会放弃。
Original English **Hamont**: We we had some this was and we had some very senior people even when we might that wouldn't give up.
**Jason**: 我必须告诉你一个故事。这让我感到焦虑。我过去常常用这个编写应用程序，然后在2011年我搬到硅谷，我把我的**BlackBerry**放在这样的桌子上。我遇到了一个在硅谷很有名的人。我们聊得很愉快。最后他说你还在用**BlackBerry**。我说：“是的。”他说：“别再用了。你在这次会议上被评判了。”
Original English **Jason**: I have to tell you a story. It just gives me anxiety. I used to I I grew up writing apps on this and then in 2011 I moved to the valley and I had my **Blackberry**. I put on a table like this. I met with somebody who was a well-known person in the valley. We had a good conversation. At the end of it he said you still use a **Blackberry**. I was like yeah. He's like, "Stop doing that. You were judged in this meeting."
**Jason**: 我没开玩笑。就像，好吧。
Original English **Jason**: I kid you not. Like, okay.
**Hamont**: 嗯，我的意思是，想想看。
Original English **Hamont**: Well, I mean, just think about
**Hamont**: 我不想碰它。你，你把它拿开了。
Original English **Hamont**: I don't want to touch it. You were uh you were holding it away from me.
**Jason**: 想想这造成了多少**腕管手术**。
Original English **Jason**: Just think about how many **carpal tunnel surgeries** this created.
**Hamont**: 哦，绝对。
Original English **Hamont**: Oh, absolutely.
**Jason**: 我的意思是，这对经济来说是好事。
Original English **Jason**: I mean, this was great for the economy.
**Jason**: 这是一个有趣的。有多少人拥有过。
Original English **Jason**: This is an interesting one. How many people owned
**Hamont**: **Palm**。
Original English **Hamont**: **Palm**
**Jason**: **Palm Pilot**？是的。
Original English **Jason**: a **pilot**? Yeah.
**Jason**: 有多少人拥有过其中之一？
Original English **Jason**: How many people own one of these?
**Hamont**: 太棒了，对吧？而且这个我有一个**手写笔天线**。
Original English **Hamont**: Incredible, right? And it this one I have a **stylus antenna**.
**Jason**: 不，**手写笔**不在这里。这是我们从**eBay**上买来的，感谢我在**CES**的朋友们。嗯，但你必须学习**手写输入**，你会在派对上花三四分钟输入一些。
Original English **Jason**: No, the **stylus** isn't here. We got this off of **eBay** thanks to my friends at **CES**. Um, but you got to learn **script** and you would be very good at, you know, spending at a party three or four minutes typing in some
**Hamont**: 而且你必须单独带手机，对吧？这是两个不同的设备。所以，
Original English **Hamont**: and you'd have to have your phone separately, right? These are two different devices. So,
**Jason**: 如果你真的想表现得很酷，很有气场，你会把这个放在腰带的一边。我知道你有这个问题。你确实有，不是吗？
Original English **Jason**: and if you really wanted to be like have a lot of swagger and a lot of RZ, you would have this on one side of your belt. I know you had this problem. You did have, didn't you?
**Hamont**: 你必须平等。
Original English **Hamont**: You have to be equal.
**Jason**: 还有**BlackBerry**。
Original English **Jason**: And the **Blackberry**
**Hamont**: 在另一边。
Original English **Hamont**: on the other side.
**Jason**: 那就像你是个**枪手**。
Original English **Jason**: That was like you were like a **gunslinger**.
**Hamont**: 是的。然后在早期，当**BlackBerry**还没有电话功能时，你还得带电话。所以那时你看起来就像个**工具人**。
Original English **Hamont**: Yeah. And then in the early days when the **Blackberry** didn't have the phone, then you had the phone, too. So then you you look like a **utility guy**.
**Jason**: **Hamont**，我知道你在大学时因为这个损失了很多脑细胞。
Original English **Jason**: Hey **Mont**, I know that in college you lost a lot of brain cells to this one.
**Jason**: 互联网上的第一个广告。
Original English **Jason**: The first ad on the internet
**Jason**: 是**Zima**的**横幅广告**。
Original English **Jason**: was a **banner ad** for **Zema**.
**Hamont**: 哦，天哪。
Original English **Hamont**: Oh boy.
**Jason**: 有多少人喝过**Zima**？
Original English **Jason**: How many people have had a **Zema**?
**Hamont**: 哦，太多了。
Original English **Hamont**: Oh, too many.
**Jason**: 这些都是**头痛**。
Original English **Jason**: These are **headaches**.
**Jason**: 这是世界上最令人厌恶的饮料。我们得到了一罐空的。嗯，我想它在瑞典仍然有售。我想只有一个地方仍然拥有许可证并生产这种可怕的饮料。
Original English **Jason**: This was the most repulsive drink in the world. We got a empty can of it. Um, it's still available, I think, in Sweden. I think there's one place that still has the license and produces this horrific beverage.
**Jason**: 嗯。
Original English **Jason**: Um,
**Jason**: 但你知道，你看看现在所有的**碳酸饮料**，就像。
Original English **Jason**: but you know, you look at all the **carbonated stuff** now, like
**Hamont**: 我的意思是，我认为这个版本。
Original English **Hamont**: I mean, I think version of this
**Jason**: **White Claw**在那里。
Original English **Jason**: **White Claw** is there.
**Hamont**: 是的，我认为那是那个时代的。
Original English **Hamont**: Yeah, I think that's that generation's
**Jason**: 你想要吗？不，谢谢。
Original English **Jason**: You want No thanks.
**Jason**: 我实际上在纽约市腰间绑着其中一个跑完了马拉松。**Sony Discman**。它在跑步时不会跳碟。
Original English **Jason**: I I actually ran a marathon with one of these on my waist in New York City. The **Sony Discman**. It didn't skip when you were running.
**Hamont**: 你看，这是一个非常好的观点。我有一个高级的，它有10秒。
Original English **Hamont**: You see, this is a very good point. I had the advanced one that had 10,
**Jason**: 它有10秒的**缓冲**。
Original English **Jason**: it had a **10-second buffer**.
**Hamont**: 哦。
Original English **Hamont**: Oh,
**Jason**: 这在当时是**精英**产品。多花50美元，但它可以**缓冲**10秒。
Original English **Jason**: this was elite at the time. It's an extra 50 bucks, but it would buffer 10 seconds.
**Jason**: 然后显然**iPod**问世了。
Original English **Jason**: And then obviously the **iPod** came out.
**Hamont**: 我们认为，就其有限的能力，但其**灵感**而言，
Original English **Hamont**: What What do we think in terms of the limited capabilities, but the **inspiration** of this
**Hamont**: 我们会回顾这个时刻吗？换句话说，一个能力可以提升一千倍，但提供相同或相似功能的设备。在这种情况下，能够拥有**便携式音乐**。这很有趣，因为，你知道，你想到这个之前的**Walkman**，对吧，那是**磁带**。
Original English **Hamont**: will we look back on at this moment in time? In other words, a device that could go a thousandx in its capability, but providing the same similar functionality. This case, being able to have **portable music**. That's interesting because, you know, you think of the **Walkman** before this, right, which was the **cassette**,
**Jason**: 对吧？
Original English **Jason**: right?
**Jason**: 不会跳碟，而且**耐用**。
Original English **Jason**: The wooden skip that was durable.
**Hamont**: **耐用**。
Original English **Hamont**: Durable.
**Hamont**: 技术进步，从**模拟**到**数字**，但**耐用性**较差。
Original English **Hamont**: Advance in technology and moving from **analog** to **digital**, but less durable.
**Jason**: 是的。但**保真度**。
Original English **Jason**: Yeah. But **fidelity**,
**Hamont**: 更好的**保真度**。过渡到**iPod**，等等。对。然后解决了这两个方程。你知道，它让你思考我们现在正处于什么样的**过渡技术**中？我回到一个地方是**健康可穿戴设备**。市面上有这么多不同的**健康可穿戴设备**，它们都从稍微不同的角度解决问题。
Original English **Hamont**: better **fidelity**. Transition to **iPod**, whatever. Right. that then solve both of the the equations. And you know, it gets you think what what are the **transition technologies** we're in right now? And one of the places I come back to is is um **health wearables**. Um so many different **health wearables** out there and they're all attacking the problem from slightly different angles.
**Jason**: 是的。
Original English **Jason**: Yes,
**Hamont**: 有一些进步，但我认为我们正处于**临界点**。我回到将这个与**可穿戴设备**结合起来，以实现更**持续的监测**和**数据**。我们可能正处于**Eight Sleep**、**Oura**、**Whoop**之间的过渡阶段，所有这些，你的**血液检查**汇集在一起，为你提供**定制化医疗**。
Original English **Hamont**: some advances, but I think we're on the cusp. I go back to marrying this plus **wearables** to having more **continuous monitoring** and **data**. We might be this might be the transition step on uh between your **Eight Sleep**, your **Oura**, your **Whoop**, all of that, your **blood work** coming together and giving you **customized medicine**.
**Jason**: 我认为这是一个比我本来要给出的更好的答案，但我的答案是**LLM幻觉**。
Original English **Jason**: I think that's a better answer than I was going to give, but my answer is the **LLM hallucinations**
**Jason**: 因为当你想到**智能**时，它在很多方面实际上是**不可靠**的。
Original English **Jason**: because when you think about the **intelligence**, it's actually **unreliable** in a lot of ways
**Jason**: 就像音乐在这方面是**不可靠**的，这会在接下来发生根本性的改变吗？
Original English **Jason**: just like the music was **unreliable** with this and is that going to change fundamentally over the next
**Jason**: 这个。这是一个非常有趣的设备，因为对于不了解的人来说，这个可能带有**短信功能**，但它以前只是告诉你发短信的人的电话号码。所以现在如果你在约会，你在约会池中，你收到了那个特殊号码的短信，你会想：“哦，我多久回电话？我得去找个**公用电话**回电话。”但你以前可以给一个号码。所以当你呼叫某人后，你可以输入几个数字代码。所以，我们开始有了自己的**行话**，比如411或911。你可以在你的**寻呼机**后面加上一些数字，比如你的位置等等，你所在的街道号码等等。这真是一个有趣的产品，它如何。
Original English **Jason**: one. This was a very interesting device because for people who don't know, this one might have **text messaging** on it, but it used to just tell you the phone number of the person who text called back. So now if you were dating and you were in the dating pool and you got that text from that special number, you're like, "Oh, how many minutes before I call back? I got to go find a **pay phone** and call back." But you used to be able to give a number. So after you page somebody, you could put in a couple of digits code. So, we started to have our own **vernacular** uh 411 or 911. You could append to your **beep** some numbers like maybe your location, etc., the street number you were on, etc. Really an interesting product in how
**Jason**: 我们从未能够关闭工作，这导致了**永远在线**。
Original English **Jason**: we never got to turn off work that led to **always on**
**Jason**: **刷屏焦虑**。我们对工作的永无止境的承诺。在某些方面，我们现在开始看到这种逆转。人们正在购买手机。我了解到很多**千禧一代**现在正在购买**数码相机**，这样他们就可以把手机留在家里，他们正在购买**翻盖手机**。
Original English **Jason**: **doom scrolling**. the neverending nature of, you know, our commitment to work. And in some ways now we're starting to see a reverse of that. People are buying phones. I I understand a lot of **millennials** now are buying **digital cameras** so they can leave their phone at home and they're getting **flip phones**
**Jason**: 所以他们**解绑**了。真的很有趣。你对**寻呼机**有什么回忆吗？
Original English **Jason**: so they've **unbundled** it. Really interesting. Any memories of the pager for you?
**Hamont**: 是的。嗯，首先，你知道，他们总是说所有的钱都是在**捆绑**和**解绑**中赚取的，这种情况正在发生。我认为这关乎，如果你要说这个的等价物，那就是我们如何回归**人际连接**，以及**亲自参与**，而不是试图，你知道，在网上孤独，在线下获得满足。这可能是将要发生的**行为改变**。我认为促成这种改变的可能是一些**社会工程**。
Original English **Hamont**: Yeah. Well, first of all, you know, they always say all the money is made in **bundling** and **unbundling** and that is happening. And I think it is about if you're going to say the equivalent of this which is about how do we go back to **human connection** and engaging in person as opposed to trying to you know be lonely online being fulfilled offline. That's probably the **behavioral change** that's going to happen. What what enables that I think is probably there is some **social engineering** that's going to drive that.
**Jason**: 这是一个非常棒的时刻。各位先生们，干得好。为我们的嘉宾献上热烈的掌声。
Original English **Jason**: This has been an amazing hour. Well done gentlemen. Big round of applause for our guest.
**Hamont**: 非常感谢您的款待。这太棒了。谢谢。观众很棒。谢谢大家。
Original English **Hamont**: Thank you so much for hosting us. This is incredible. Thank you. been a great audience. Thank you for