--- author: Joseph Wang date: '2026-11-14' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8SRWZhAuvI speaker: Joseph Wang tags: - interest-rate - monetary-policy - inflation - artificial-intelligence - semiconductor title: 美联储加息预期升温与英伟达动荡下的AI交易压力 summary: 本期节目讨论了推动近期美债收益率波动的通胀与政策预期，包括美联储官员沃勒在核心CPI数据发布后对加息50个基点的开放态度，以及美联储关于油价向核心通胀传导的研究。同时分析了英伟达管理层变动背后的地缘政治与开源模型推测，并指出英伟达融资支持的收缩可能对AI生态系统及更广泛市场带来下行压力。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: investment-assets area: finance-wealth project: [] people: - Jensen Huang - Christopher Waller companies_orgs: - Nvidia - Federal Reserve products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 市场近况与核心议题 朋友们好。今天是11月14日，这里是市场周报（markets weekly）。好的各位，市场上周又度过了激动人心的一周。这种情况我们似乎碰得越来越频繁了。上周我们看到英伟达CEO兼创始人黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）突然被罢免。这显然是一场经过策划的打击，导致英伟达股价大跌，并可能对整个AI生态系统产生更广泛的影响。其次，美联储官员密集发声。值得注意的是，美联储理事沃勒（Waller）表态对12月大幅加息50个基点持开放态度。10年期美债收益率目前重新回到了5.1%以上。 因此，今天我们首先来谈谈利率。其次，我们再谈谈AI交易如何持续受挫。
Original English Hello my friends. Today is November 14th and this is markets weekly. All right guys, it's been another exciting week in markets. We seem to be having these more and more frequently. Last week we saw the sudden ouster of CEO and founder Jensen Hang of Nvidia. Obviously an orchestrated hick that tanked Nvidia stock and will likely have broader implications in the AI ecosystem. Secondly, we had a lot of Fed speak. Notably, Governor Waller came out and was open to a supersized 50 basis point hike in December. The 10-year yield is now back above 5.1%. So, today, first, let's talk about rates. And secondly, let's talk about how the AI trade continues to falter.
### 美债收益率的驱动逻辑与美联储政策路径 退一步纵观利率走势，很明显过去几个月利率基本上是受两件事驱动。首先是石油价格。当油价上涨时，我们看到10年期美债收益率也随之上升。显然，更高的能源价格意味着更高的通胀，也意味着更加鹰派的政策路径。 它在走势上也与AI交易保持一致。当AI交易受挫时，我们看到10年期收益率出现回落。正如大家所知，美国经济很大一部分是由AI数据中心的建设推动的，当然，AI股票上涨带来的财富效应同样为美国经济提供了动力。 因此，当AI交易受挫时，这表明失业率可能上升，需求减少，通胀面临下行压力，进而指向更加鸽派的政策路径。现在看一下作为政策路径良好风向标的2年期美债收益率，你可以看到在过去几周里，随着油价下跌和AI交易受挫，2年期收益率稳步下行。但在短短几个交易日内，2年期收益率再次飙升。这当然是因为美联储官员的表态转为鹰派。 请记住，利率在很大程度上反映的是美联储政策的预期路径，这是央行的基础常识（central banking 101），而不是赤字之类的东西。 各位，过去有人根据财政赤字来交易利率。他们看着日本，看到日本有着极高的债务与GDP之比。他们做空日本国债（JGB），结果在JGB收益率跌为负值时全军覆没；而收益率变成负数，是因为日本央行在降息并把利率设定为负值，对吧？赤字这、赤字那，那是自取灭亡之路。
Original English So, taking a step back when looking at rates, it's clear that rates have basically been trading off of two things the past several months. First was oil prices. When oil prices rose, we saw the 10-year yield rise as well. Obviously, higher energy prices means higher inflation means a more hawkish path of policy. It also traded in line with the AI trade. When the AI trade was faltering, we saw the 10-year yield decline. Now, as we all know, a big part of the US economy has been the AI data center buildout and also of course the wealth effect from rising AI stock has also powered the US economy as well. So when the AI trade is faltering that suggests potentially rise in unemployment, less demand, downward pressure on um inflation, so a more dovish path of policy. Now when you look at the 2-year yield, which is a good proxy for the path of policy, you can see that over the past few weeks, the 2-year yield has steadily come down as oil prices declined and as the AI trade faltered. But in just a few short sessions, the 2-year yield is once again surging. And that of course be is because Fed speak has turned hawkish. Remember uh interest rates are largely the expected path of Fed policy, central banking 101, not deficits or whatnot. Guys, there used to be people who traded interest rates according to deficits. They were looking at Japan, seeing that Japan had a tremendously high debt to GDP ratio. They were selling JGBs and they all went broke as the JGBs went negative and they went negative because the Bank of Japan was cutting interest rates and set interest rates to negative, right? Deficit this, deficit that. That is the road to ruin.
### 沃勒表态、反应函数与通胀预期 好，回到政策路径上来。本周早些时候，大家熟知颇具影响力的美联储理事沃勒在英国发表了演讲。在演讲结束时，他讲了这样一段话：如果本周公布的核心CPI环比在0.3%左右或更高，他对加息50个基点持开放态度。 这是一份相当鹰派的表态。在此之前，实际上没有人讨论加息50个基点。而沃勒理事当然被认为更有影响力，尽管他最近的表现并不是特别亮眼。 首先，这不是前瞻性指引（forward guidance），这是一个反应函数（reaction function）。正如沃勒本人过去解释过的、我们也讨论过的那样，前瞻性指引是指你在不依赖未来数据的情况下设定政策路径。如果沃勒说“无论数据如何，我都会在12月加息50个基点”，那就是前瞻性指引。但他所表达的是，如果数据火热，他会支持加息50个基点，否则加息25个基点。因此，基于数据设定他预期的政策路径，这就是反应函数，与前瞻性指引截然不同；他完全有权这样表达。主席不喜欢谈论这些，但其他人完全可以随意发表观点。无论如何，在他给出了他的反应函数之后，每个人都高度关注CPI数据；果不其然，CPI高于预期，核心CPI环比实际录得0.3%。在那一刻，市场确实出现了一种小型恐慌，推高了12月加息50个基点的概率。
Original English Okay, so back to the path of policy. So earlier in the week, we had Governor Waller, who we all know to be pretty influential, come out and say uh give a speech in the UK. And at the end of the speech, he had this paragraph, and that is that if core CPI this week came out on a month-over-month basis around 0.3% or higher, he would be open to a 50 basis point hike. So that was a pretty hawkish statement. Until then, no one had been really talking about a 50 basis point hike. And Governor Waller, of course, perceived to be more influential, although of course has not performed very well recently. Now, first off, this is not forward guidance. This is a reaction function. As Waller himself has explained in the past and we've discussed, forward guidance is when you give uh when you set the path of policy independent of upcoming data. So, if Waller were to say, I'm going to come and hike 50 basis points in December, no matter what the data is, that's forward guidance. But he said he gave what he said is that if the data came in hot, he would be 450 basis points. otherwise 25 basis points. So setting out his expected path of policy conditional on data that's a reaction function that's very different from forward guidance and he is free to give that cher doesn't like talking about that but everyone else is free to you know say whatever they want in any case after giving his reaction function everyone was highly attentive to CPI and lo and behold CPI came in hotter than expected and actually core CPI month over month actually came in at 0.3%. And at that point, the market did kind of have a sort of mini panic, raising the odds of a 50 basis point hike in December.
### 油价向核心通胀的传导与精炼油压力 那么沃勒为什么突然表现得如此鹰派？只要看一下CPI的走势就很清楚了：在通胀方面其实并没有取得太大进展。此外，美联储这项有趣的新研究表明，疫情后油价向核心通胀的传导效应比过去更高。在过去，大家会认为油价涨涨跌跌，美联储不应该真正对这些负面的供给冲击做出反应，因为考虑到货币政策存在时滞，等他们做出反应时油价可能已经回落了。我们在通胀数据中区分了核心和总体通胀，总体通胀包含能源和食品价格等波动较大的成分。因此通常忽略能源价格的波动是合理的。但美联储这项新研究显示，疫情之后，通胀和油价在经济中的传导机制可能发生了改变，以至于疫情后油价可能更容易渗透进核心通胀。这对美联储来说将是一个大问题，因为油价已经上涨了许多，这表明核心通胀抬头的幅度可能超出预期；而一旦通胀进入核心部分，它就会变得更加黏性，更难以消除。全球其他央行，从欧洲央行到英国央行，一直在关注所谓的第二轮效应（second-round effects），他们此前并未真正看到这种情况，但美联储的这项证据、数据和研究表明，人们开始担忧这次可能有所不同。这可能是沃勒态度更加鹰派的一个原因。 另外还要注意，在那次会议上——会议实际上是通过Zoom进行的——《华尔街日报》记者Nick Timiraos提问称油价已经下跌了很多，为什么你还如此鹰派？沃勒的回答是，尽管原油价格已经下跌，但精炼产品价格由于炼油能力的破坏仍然居高不下。由于乌克兰战争，很多炼油厂停产，霍尔木兹海峡似乎仍在影响中东精炼产品的运输。看柴油价格就会发现，虽然有所下降，但仍处于高位。因此重点在于精炼产品，它们确实没有像原油那样大幅降价。所以未来仍有更多通胀在传导过程中。
Original English So why is Waller suddenly coming out so hawkish? Well, it's pretty clear if you look at the path of CPI that, you know, there really hasn't been that much progress when it comes to inflation. In addition, there's this interesting new research from the Fed that suggests that the pass through from oil prices to core inflation to be higher post pandemic than in the past. So, in the past, you know, we would say that ah, you know, oil prices go up, go down, the Fed shouldn't really react to these negative supply shocks because by the time they react, given that monetary policy acts with a lag, maybe oil prices come back down. And you know we do break down inflation data by core and headline right headline contains these volatile elements like energy and food prices. So it makes sense to usually just to ignore fluctuations in energy prices. But what this new research from the Fed is showing that after the pandemic, maybe there's been a change in how inflation, how oil prices are transmitted through the economy such that maybe maybe post pandemic oil prices more readily bleed into core inflation and that would be a big problem for the Fed because oil prices have come up a lot and so that suggests that maybe core inflation could pick up more than expected and once you get into core, you know, it's much stickier and harder to get out other central banks around the world from the ECB to the UK to the Bank of England over there have been watching for what they call believe second round effects they haven't really seen it but this evidence this data this work from the Fed suggests that there's some concern that maybe this time is different so that might be a reason why Waller has been I guess a bit more hawkish also note that at the conference now this is his conference was actually conducted on Zoom but Nick Toro from the Wall Street Journal reporter that he was asked you know the oil prices have come down a lot why are you so hawkish and Waller's response was that even though oil prices crude oil prices have come down refined products remain prices remain elevated uh because of the destruction of refinery capacity right so again because of the war in Ukraine a lot of refineries are down and the straight of Hormuz still seems to be impacting the uh the refinery the the flow of refined products out of the Middle East. So if you look at diesel prices, they've come down a bit but still remain elevated. So the focus is on refined products that it's true that they really haven't come down as much as uh as crude oil. So still more inflation coming down the pipeline.
### 市场加息定价与点阵图对比 从市场定价来看，目前市场计入了未来12个月内超过三次的加息。在沃勒发言之后，一些通常被视为鹰派的美联储官员，包括洛根（Logan）和哈马克（Hammack），似乎支持再加息50个基点，但似乎并不十分支持大幅单次加息。因此市场目前的预期是12月加息25个基点，1月加息25个基点，之后可能还会更多。需要指出的是，目前市场定价所反映的鹰派程度已经超过了9月份的点阵图。 我认为委员会不支持三次加息——即累计加息75个基点、完全收回上次75个基点的降息幅度的做法；至少到目前为止，似乎并不支持走得更远。所以眼下市场比美联储更加鹰派，我们将在12月公布点阵图时了解美联储想法的最新动态。
Original English So looking at what's priced in the markets, the market is now pricing in more than three more hikes in the next 12 months. Now after Wallace spoke, we had some other uh Fed officials commonly regarded as hawkish. We had Logan, we had Hammock, and they were seemingly for uh 50 basis points more in hikes, but doesn't seem to be very supportive of a super sized hike. So the market right now is thinking that we'll get 25 basis points in December and 25 in January and maybe more later on. Note that what's priced in the market is more hawkish than the September dot plot. Everyone is on I I think the committee is on unsupportive of 33 hikes. So 75 basis point total undoing the 75 basis point cut um last time but doesn't seem like so far there's support for going beyond. So right now the market is more hawkish than the Fed and we'll get an update on Fed's thinking when we get their dot plot uh in December.
### 英伟达管理层动荡与罢免原因分析 现在转到AI交易。[叹气] 看英伟达的股票，英伟达当然是AI交易的领头羊，生产顶级的GPU，是美国AI经济的科技王冠之珠，而他们的股价今年以来的表现并不理想，下跌了10%，事实上在此之前也并没有上涨多少。它的暴跌是因为过去这周失去了CEO黄仁勋。他同时也是创始人，从无到有建立了英伟达，并带领它走到今天的位置。指控始于本周早些时候，当时传出黄仁勋似乎与一名中国女性有染，该女性是东南亚一家名为Mega Speed的云计算提供商的高管。指控称她是间谍，虽然在今天这些指控似乎并没有得到充分支持，但他们之间显然确实存在私情。 黄仁勋起初似乎能挺过这件事，但在接下来的几天里，又出现了更多针对他与下属有婚外情的指控，这似乎足以促使董事会将其罢免。在我看来，这显然像是一场有组织的、针对黄仁勋的打击清洗。 那么人们为什么想除掉黄仁勋？在我看来，颇有说服力的主流推论之一是国家安全机构内部的对华鹰派对黄仁勋感到不满，因为他对向中国出售GPU持非常开放的态度。目前英伟达不能向中国出售最先进的GPU。但实际操作是，他们向Mega Speed或东南亚的其他云服务提供商出售GPU，在马来西亚或新加坡设立配备高端英伟达芯片的数据中心，然后中国公司只需向这些云服务提供商租用算力。这在表面上似乎是合规的。 此前有人担忧Mega Speed实际上一直在将这些GPU实体转运至中国，这将是违法的行为；但我想这一情况目前仍在调查之中。更宽泛地讲，这些贸易限制措施从来没有真正发挥过很好的效果。记得欧盟曾对购买俄罗斯原油实施了各项限制，结果是俄罗斯将原油卖给印度，印度再将原油加工成成品油卖回欧盟；或者之前对中国打关税战，中国企业就跑到越南或墨西哥设厂，然后再将产品运往美国。因此这些运输安排总是难以严格执行。世界很大，充斥着投机者，所以这种措施从来都不太有效。但黄仁勋的做法显然让对华鹰派感到不悦，他们希望采取更严厉的限制措施，阻止中国获取任何尖端英伟达芯片，这当然是将中国AI视为了国家安全风险。
Original English Now moving on to the AI trade. So [sighs] looking at the Nvidia Nvidia stock, Nvidia of course is uh the general of the AI trade makes wonderful wonderful GPUs, techn technological crown jewel of the US AI economy and their stock has just not done well year to date. It's down 10% and really even before then it really hasn't gone up that much. It's gone down a lot because this past week they lost their CEO, Jensen Hong, who was also its founder and built Nvidia up from nothing and took it to where it was today. Allegations began earlier in the week when uh seemingly Jensen had an affair with uh a Chinese woman who was an executive at Mega Speed, a seemingly a some kind of a cloud computing provider in Southeast Asia. The allegations say that she was a Chinese spy, although today there that those seem to be not well supported, but very clearly they did have an affair. Jensen seemed to be able to survive that, but then in in the coming days there were more allegations of affairs with the subordinates and that seemed to uh that seemed to be enough for the board to push him out. So from my perspective, this this obviously looks like a hit job, coordinated hit job to get rid of Jensen. So why why might people want to get rid of Jensen? Uh it seems like one of the prevailing theories that I find persuasive is that the national security establishment, there are the China hawks there are unhappy with Jensen who was very open to selling GPUs to China. Now at the moment Nvidia cannot sell its most advanced GPUs to China. But what happens though is that they sell GPUs to say Mega Speed or these cloud providers in Southeast Asia. And so they set up data centers with high-end Nvidia chips in Malaysia or Singapore. And then the Chinese companies just rent capacity from those cloud providers. And that's that's seemingly okay. Um there was there is some concern that Mega Suite had has actually been taking those GPUs and actually trans transshipping them physically to China and that would be illegal. But uh I I think that's still something under investigation. Now more broadly speaking these trade constraints never really worked well. Remember there was all these restrictions on buying Russian crude from the European Union. So what happened was that Russia would sell crude to India who would then refine the crude into products that sells back to the European Union or we had a tariff war on China and what the Chinese companies did was set up shop in say Vietnam or Mexico and then just ship ship products to the US. So these these shipping arrangements are always difficult to enforce. The world is very big many opportunistic actors. So it's never a very effective thing. But uh what Jensen was doing apparently was something that was displeasing to the China hawks who would like a stronger uh restriction against China having any access to cutting edge Nvidia chips viewing of course Chinese AI as a national security risk.
### 政治背景、开源竞争与生态圈融资压力 需要注意的是，白宫当然对这些云计算安排等情况心知肚明，但也要注意到英伟达曾向总统的舞厅项目捐赠了2500万美元，当时似乎一切都相安无事。而从那时起到现在发生的变化，当然是经历了中期选举。黄仁勋曾是国王随从的一员，如今国王被削弱，刺向他的利刃便露了出来。 另一个潜在推论是黄仁勋非常支持开源AI生态系统。对他来说，开放AI当然没问题，开源权重的AI也很好，因为它们都要使用GPU，这意味着对英伟达产品有更多需求。有传言称黄仁勋曾考虑开发一款前沿的美国开源权重AI模型，而这对Anthropic和ChatGPT等闭源AI模型构成了致命威胁，这两家公司都希望在未来的某个时候上市，因此它们或许同样支持英伟达出现某种变动。 这不仅对更广泛的AI生态系统非常重要，英伟达直到最近还是一家市值5万亿美元的公司，这样一家公司可能以这种方式陷入混乱，而更广泛的AI生态系统受到的冲击却看似有限，这令我感到十分吃惊；但我认为冲击可能会通过融资渠道显现。如果查看美联储最新金融稳定报告中的这张图表，就会发现过去大概一年左右的时间里，许多大型科技公司一直在为AI生态系统提供大量支持，而这种支持很大一部分是通过承诺形式实现的。例如，黄仁勋领导下的英伟达为GPU价值提供担保，使得购买英伟达GPU的新型云厂商（Neocloud）能够将这些GPU抵押给特殊目的机构（SPV）进行融资，因为他们知道英伟达在一定程度上保证了其残值。当然，英伟达也以直接向这些Neocloud提供融资而闻名，这些新型云服务商因为获得了英伟达的股权投资，从而有资金购买英伟达的GPU。 正如大家从图表中的承诺部分所看到的，这种情况在非常大的范围内发生。如今新任CEO——她的名字是克雷斯（Kress）——似乎不那么支持英伟达继续对外做出这些投资和承诺。过去几个月我们看到的是，随着利率上升，Neocloud以及AI生态系统中其他较为边缘的部分一直在承受压力，因为他们更难获得融资，或者说难以承担更高的利息成本。这一融资途径已经被收窄。而现在来自英伟达的这套途径同样受到冲击，这将进一步掐断流向AI生态系统的资金，意味着未来可能会有进一步的下行空间。
Original English Now, note that the White House, of course, was well aware of these cloud arrangements and so forth, but also note that Nvidia had donated$ 25 million um to to the president's barroom, and seemingly everything was okay. Uh what's changed between now and then, of course, was that we have the midterm elections. Jensen was part of the king's entourage. The king has been weakened, and now the knives come out. Another potential theory is that Jensen was very supportive of an open AI ecosystem. Of course, if for him, of course, open AI is fine. Openweight AI is fine because they use GPUs and that means more demand for Nvidia products. Rumor has that uh Jensen was thinking about developing a frontier openweight American AI model and that is a mortal threat to closed AI models like Anthropic and and ChachiBT both of companies which would like to go public sometime and so maybe they were also supportive of uh some change there at uh at Nvidia. Now this is important for the broader AI ecosystem not just because AI Nvidia was until recently a $5 trillion company and it's quite surprising to me that this company can impul like this and yet the broader AI ecosystem not not so much impacted but I think the impact could come through financing. So if you look at this chart from the latest uh Fed financial stability report, you will see that um over the past uh I'd say year or so a lot of the big tech companies have been fighting substantial support to the AI ecosystem and a big part of the support is through commitments. It could be for example uh say Jensen Hang's Nvidia providing uh guarantees for GPU value such that a Neocloud buying Nvidia GPUs could then pledge that GPU for financing to an SPV knowing that its residual value is guaranteed to some extent by Nvidia. And Nvidia of course is also known for providing outright financing to some of these Neoclouds such that Neoclouds have money to buy Nvidia GPUs because they re they receive an equity investment from Nvidia. So this is something that has happened to a very large extent as you can see from from the uh commitments part of the chart. Now, the new CEO who was uh her name is Crest seems to be less supportive of Nvidia going out and making these investments commitments. And so, what we've seen over the past couple months is that as interest rates have risen, the Neoclouds and other more fringe parts of the EI ecosystem have been suffering because it's more difficult for them to gain financing or at least willingness to pay the higher interest rates. And that avenue has been of financing has been shrunk. But now this Nvidia avenue under attack as well that further choke off financing to the AI ecosystem and that suggests that there could be more downside to come.
### 股市技术面走势与系统性风险提示 看费城半导体指数（SOX），在我看来很明显已经见顶，看起来像是正在跌落悬崖。它不会是呈直线下跌。如果看纳斯达克指数，过去一周确实曾冲到200日均线之上，但在周五又再度跌落其下方。所以整体趋势确实是偏向走低的。这不会一蹴而就。我们正在接近感恩节和圣诞节这些处于周期中具有季节性利好的阶段。但我认为，随着美联储进一步加息，加上英伟达可能减少这种循环融资行为，AI交易面临着更多阻力，未来不仅是AI股票，美国经济也会面临进一步的下行压力。正如我们所提到的，美国经济很大一部分是由数据中心建设和财富效应驱动的。大企业在2027年的资本开支仍处于相当高的水平，但这可能构成顶部，当市场不得不对增速放缓进行定价时，我们将观察市场会作何反应。 好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。另外还有最后一点。请注意，上周微软Outlook出现了大范围的长时间瘫痪，我无法发送邮件；此外在周五，美国联邦航空管理局（FAA）停飞了大量美国国内航班，表面上看是某种通信故障。官方称这不是网络攻击，但看起来实在太巧合了。因此随着我们步入AI时代，全球越来越多的主体将掌握更强的网络攻击能力。请务必确保你在网络安全防护过硬的公司办理银行或开立账户。 好的，我们下周再聊。
Original English Now looking at um the Philadelphia socks index, you can see that honestly it looks to me that it's very obviously over. looks like it's kind of um uh you know falling off a cliff. Not going to be in a straight line. But if you look at the NASDAQ, we did jump above the 200 day moving average the past week, but again fell back beneath it on Friday. So the trend really is lower. It's not going to happen in a straight line. And we are approaching seasonally positive parts of um this of the of the cycle, Thanksgiving and Christmas. But it does seem to me that with the Fed further hikening, with the Nvidia maybe doing less of this circular financing stuff, it's more headwinds to the AI trade and there's further downside to come, not just for the AI stocks, but for the US economy as well. As we've noted, a big part of the US economy has been powered by data center buildouts and also the wealth effect. Capex spending by the big companies still pretty elevated in 2027, but that could potentially be the top and we'll see how the market reacts when they have to price in the deceleration. All right, so that's all I've prepared for today. Oh, one last note. Note that last week we had a very extended outage in Microsoft Outlook. I was not able to send emails and also on Friday the FAA grounded a lot of US flights, seemingly some kind of communications error. They're saying that it's not a cyber attack, but really it seems like a coincidence. So, as we go into the AI age, more and more actors across the world are going to have access to stronger cyber attack cyber capabilities. So, make sure that you are banking or have accounts with companies that have uh very good cyber security. All right, talk to you guys next week.