--- author: New York Times Podcasts date: '2026-10-07' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GA3bapJsGb4 speaker: New York Times Podcasts tags: - military-intelligence - asymmetric-warfare - drone-threat - national-security - geopolitical-risk title: 英格兰空军基地惊魂：美军紧急撤离 B-1 轰炸机与伊朗无人机威胁内幕 summary: 英格兰科茨沃尔德乡村的费尔福德空军基地外突现可疑白车与蒙面男子，引发警方大规模行动。随着情报披露伊朗或企图通过欧洲代理人使用自杀式无人机袭击美军战机，五角大楼罕见下令紧急撤回数十架 B-1 轰炸机，折射出冲突蔓延至欧洲本土的严峻安全隐患与地缘政治震荡。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: geopolitics area: geopolitics project: [] people: - Pete Hegseth - Donald Trump - Andy Burnham companies_orgs: - New York Times - Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - United States Air Force - Pentagon products_models: - B-1 Bomber - B-52 Bomber - B-2 Bomber media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 序幕：英格兰基地的神秘危机 **迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 这里是《**纽约时报**》，我是**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**。《每日新闻》今天为您讲述：英格兰乡村一座空军基地刚刚发生的离奇事件。为什么这起事件会让美国军方高层不寒而栗，甚至采取了紧急行动？它又揭示了伊朗将攻击目标大幅推进、企图在更靠近西方本土之地打击美国的何种野心？我的同事、五角大楼记者**埃里克·施密特**将为我们讲述他的调查发现。今天是10月7日，星期三。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: From the New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. Today: The mysterious story of what exactly just happened at an Air Force base in rural England. Why it spooked American military officials into emergency action, and what it may reveal about Iran's ambition to attack the United States much closer to home. My colleague, Pentagon reporter Eric Schmitt, tells us what he's learned. It's Wednesday, October 7th.
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 埃里克，欢迎回到节目，非常高兴你能来。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Eric, welcome back to the show. Always a pleasure to have you.
**埃里克·施密特**: 非常感谢你。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: Thank you very much.
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 你一直在调查英格兰乡村一座空军基地及其周边正在发生的事情，这一连串事态不知何故竟让我们整个国家安全机构陷入了高度警戒状态。那么，这个故事是从哪里开始的？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: So, you have been investigating what's been unfolding in and around an air base in rural England that has somehow gotten our entire national security apparatus on high alert. So, where does that story start?
### 田园乡村的午夜警报 **埃里克·施密特**: 迈克尔，这个故事始于英格兰南部一个名叫**费尔福德**（Fairford）的田园诗般的宁静村庄。正如你所说，它坐落在科茨沃尔德地区，距离伦敦往西大约两小时车程。这里有一座建于15世纪的古老教堂，周围环绕着牧场和农田。但与此同时，它就紧挨着这座有着数十年历史的英国皇家空军基地。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: Well, the story starts, Michael, in this bucolic village of Fairford, which is in southern England. As you said, it's in the Cotswolds. It's about a two-hour drive or so west of London. It's got a 15th-century church. It's got cattle and farms around. It's also right next to this decades-old British air base.
**埃里克·施密特**: 9月27日午夜刚过，当地一位女性农场主在参加完聚会回家时，赫然发现有三辆白色厢式货车停在她家门前。随后她意识到，竟然有几名戴着面罩的男子正从这些货车旁跑开。于是，正如任何一位尽责的英国居民会做的那样，她拨打了紧急求助电话报案说：“我们这附近好像出事了。” 没过几分钟，大批警察就迅速赶到了这位女士的住所。现场警员云集，直升机在头顶呼啸盘旋，拆弹防爆小组甚至调来了机器人，准备搜查货车内部是否存在爆炸物和武器。警方迅速围捕并拘留了五名男子。随后流传出的一张模糊照片显示，这五个人赤裸着上身站在路边，看起来就是现场抓获的嫌疑人。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: Shortly after midnight on September 27th, a farmer, a woman comes home after a party and discovers there are three white vans parked in front of her home. And she realizes that there are men running away, masked men running away from these vans. So she does, I guess, as any good British woman would do, she calls the emergency services and said, "Something's going on around here." And within minutes, the police are descending on this woman's home. There are officers there. There are helicopters roaring overhead. There's the bomb squad that showed up with a robot that's going to go through the vans looking for explosives and weapons. And they round up and arrest these five guys who end up on the side of the street with a grainy photograph showing their shirts off standing there seeming like they're the culprits.
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 面对英格兰乡村出现的区区三辆货车，这种反应表面上看似乎极其宏大，甚至有些不成比例地小题大做。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: I mean, this seems on its face to be a rather big and maybe disproportionate response to a trio of vans in rural England.
**埃里克·施密特**: 当时在海滩度假的我看到这些新闻报道时，心里也是这么想的。于是我开始向一些军方和国家安全领域的消息人士打电话打听，看看他们是否听到了风声，是否知道背后究竟是怎么回事。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: That's what I was thinking as I was actually on vacation out at the beach when I'm seeing all this reporting come in. So, I start calling around to some of my military, national security sources to see if they've heard anything, if they know what's going on.
### 战略轰炸机基地的真实威胁 **埃里克·施密特**: 我所了解到的情况是，这件事情极其严重，因为这绝非一座普通的空军基地。**费尔福德空军基地**（RAF Fairford）是美军重型战略轰炸机使用了几十年的据点，在最近针对伊朗的军事行动中，美军战机正是从这里起飞，深入伊朗境内投下重型炸弹打击目标。我的消息源所担忧的是：警方的这次大动作，是否意味着伊朗正试图通过潜伏在英国境内的代理人实施报复，企图对驻英军事基地的美军人员和战机发动袭击？ 这简直让人倒吸一口凉气。要知晓，我报道这场冲突已经八个月了，我们在中东本土、在波斯湾地区见识过无数次袭击。但如果袭击竟然直接牵扯到驻英国的美军士兵——一个远在两千多英里之外的坚定盟友国土上——这无疑是极其剧烈的性质转变。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: And what I learn is that this is very serious because this isn't just any air base. The Fairford base is one that American bombers have used for decades and have been using most recently in the Iran war to drop major bombs on targets inside of Iran. And the concern I'm hearing from my sources is that this response, could it be some form of retaliation by Iran using proxies inside of England to have an attack on American troops and aircraft at a British base? It's like holy cow, you know, because I've been covering this war now for eight months and we've seen lots of attacks in the Gulf region itself in the Middle East. But for something to be tied to American military personnel in England, this staunch ally a couple thousand miles away from Iran, this was quite dramatic.
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 那么，你的消息源具体透露了他们担忧的本质是什么？他们在幕后掌握了哪些信息？这与在那辆货车附近发现的蒙面男子又有怎样的联系？你当时开始梳理拼凑出怎样的脉络？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Well, what exactly are your sources telling you is the nature of their fear? What do they know in the background? And how does it relate to the men in masks who are found in this van? What are you starting to try to put together here?
**埃里克·施密特**: 他们把我的视线引回到了今年7月。当时控制着伊朗国家安全机构的**伊斯兰革命卫队**（IRGC）曾公开放话，威胁要对英国境内的军事基地采取行动，理由是英国在协助美方参与对伊朗的战争。然而当时这些威胁言论非常笼统，既没有指明袭击时间，也没有指出基地内部的具体打击点。 但我的消息人士告诉我，大约就在这三辆货车出现前两周，美国官员及其英国同行获得了全新的、更为具体的情报，不仅精确指涉了该基地面临的威胁，甚至掌握了可能操盘的幕后黑手信息。突如其来的情报使得紧迫感急剧飙升，各方认为一场袭击可能迫在眉睫。与此同时，小镇当地的英国官员也一直在警示村民注意身边的可疑迹象。因此，早在货车事件爆发之前，这个小镇就已经弥漫着山雨欲来的紧张气氛。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: So they take me back to July when Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which basically controls the security services in that country, threatened to go after bases in England basically because they're saying that England is helping participate in the war against Iran. But these threats were very general. They were not specific about time or exactly where in the base they might hit. But what these sources of mine were telling me was that two weeks or so before these vans showed up, American officials along with some of their British counterparts got new information that was much more specific about the threat to the base itself and who perhaps could be behind it. And suddenly this created a much greater sense of urgency that an attack might be imminent. Around this same time, British officials in the town had been warning people to be aware of anything that looked suspicious. And so there was this sense that something was going on in this town even before this incident with the vans took place.
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 也就是说，此前官方已经向公众发出了“见疑即报”（if you see something, say something）的总体告诫。而这位深夜返回农场的女士，正是真切看到了异样，并且果断报了警。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: So there was a general message, if you see something, say something. And this woman returning to her farm very much saw something, very much said something.
### 空空如也的货车与被释放的嫌疑人 **埃里克·施密特**: 没错。这就来到了9月27日那天，警方出动直升机和拆弹专家，大张旗鼓地包围了现场。他们勒令嫌疑男子靠墙排开，并仔细搜查了这些货车。然而，他们几乎什么都没搜出来——车里仅仅只有几桶汽油，既没有爆炸物，也没有武器，什么都没有。所有人顿时面面相觑：“这到底是在闹哪出？”
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: That's right. And so that leads us to the 27th where the police show up obviously with all these helicopters, the bomb squad. They've lined these guys up and they comb through these vans, but they really don't find anything. It's just some jugs of gasoline. There's no explosives. There's no weapons or anything. And suddenly everybody's like, "Well, what was this all about?"
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 这感觉就像是：哪来的什么所谓的伊朗阴谋？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Kind of like what Iranian plot?
**埃里克·施密特**: 一点没错。“哪有什么伊朗阴谋？”于是就在第二天，警方居然直接批准这五名男子保释释放。这立刻引发了疑问：这整件事究竟只是一场无稽之谈的小题大做，还是说明官方掌握的关于阴谋的核心证据涉密等级过高——不是搜车搜出来的，而是围绕整个阴谋的绝密情报——以至于根本无法在普通的刑事诉讼中作为公开证据出示？
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: That's right. What Iranian plot? And so the next day the police released these five men on bail and basically this raised the question: Well, was this a big nothing burger, or is it also suggesting that the evidence that they do have about this plot—not what they got from the vans but surrounding the plot—is so classified they can't use it in a simple criminal case?
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 确实耐人寻味。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Ah, fascinating.
**埃里克·施密特**: 于是我立刻回去追问我的消息人士：“这到底是怎么回事？他们怎么就把这几个人给放了？”
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: So I go back to my sources and say, "Well, what happened here? They just let these guys go."
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 你的消息源是怎么回答的？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: And what did your sources say?
### 调虎离山还是临阵脱逃？ **埃里克·施密特**: 他们对我说：“别被保释这件事给带偏了。这帮人大概率只是一场**声东击西的佯动诱饵**。用我们一位官员的原话来说，这群家伙就是群替死鬼小喽啰，纯粹是为了转移基地守军视线、掩护基地另一侧可能发动的真正袭击。”这是其中一种推论。 另一种推论是：他们原本正赶去与持有炸药和武器的同伙接头会合，但在碰头前就被截获了。而就在上周晚些时候，事件愈发扑朔迷离——有新情报显示，在被捕的五名货车男子中，居然有一人是在警方赶到之前**自己主动拨打报警电话**报的警！
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: Well, what am I supposed to say? Well, don't get too hung up on that. This was probably just a diversion. These guys were chumps. In the words of one of my officials, they were just basically a distraction for what might have happened somewhere else on the base. That's one theory. Another theory is that they were on their way to link up with confederates who did have weapons, who did have explosives, and were intercepted before that could happen. And as if this whole situation isn't mysterious enough, we get new information at the end of last week that one of the five men from the vans who was arrested actually called the police before the police arrived.
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 等等，他自己打电话报警举报了自己？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Wait, he called the police on himself?
**埃里克·施密特**: 显然是这样。这同样是我们在极力理清的关键点。这个人是故意打电话引诱警察全部扑向一个方向，好让其他阴谋同伙从另一侧突袭基地？还是说他本以为自己接的只是一趟普通的鸡鸣狗盗之差事——比如去偷点汽油——结果半路发现自己卷入了远超想象的危险勾当，吓破了胆想临阵抽身，于是打电话向警方呼救？
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: Apparently. And again, this is something we're still trying to sort out. Was this somebody who was deliberately calling the cops to get everybody pulled over in one direction so that the other plotters might, you know, attack the base from another? Or was this a guy who thought he, you know, was just out for some kind of criminal job or something like that? Maybe he was going to steal gas and realized he got in way over his head and he wants out and he calls to say, "Help."
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 很有意思。但从你的分析来看，似乎存在这样一种可能：这家伙可能是伊朗雇佣的团伙成员之一——我知道这属于推测范畴——但在某一刻，他突然意识到自己卷入了一桩他根本不想沾染的惊天大案。他心想：“老天，赶紧让我离开这鬼地方”，于是拨打了英国的紧急报警电话999来强行终止行动。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Huh. But one possibility that it sounds like you contemplate is perhaps this guy is part of a group hired by Iranians—I know I'm in the realm of speculation—and at some point he realizes he's part of something that he doesn't want to be a part of. And he's like, "Get me the heck out of here. I'm calling basically the British equivalent 999 to shut this down."
**埃里克·施密特**: 确实如此。这就让我们不得不面对一个巨大矛盾：“等一下，如果真是一场极其严重的阴谋，行动策划者怎么会提前打电话报警自首？这根本说不通啊。”但随后，剧情再度升级：军警逮捕了第六名男子，而这名嫌疑人拥有**英国与伊朗双重国籍**。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: That's right. And then we're really left with like, "Well, wait a minute. If this was such a serious plot, why are the plotters calling in ahead of time and giving up? It doesn't make sense." But then the plot kind of thickens. There was a sixth man who was arrested and he was a British-Iranian citizen.
### 第六名嫌犯与首相的含糊表态 **迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 于是，就在大家以为这事可能只是虚惊一场、对消息源坚称的“事态严重”半信半疑之时，警方的新动作表明他们确实掌握了拘捕此人的充分理由。不过，这第六个人随后也被保释了。嫌疑人名单越拉越长，但外界对事态的走向依然一头雾水。可就在上周晚些时候，英国政要也站出来表态，暗示有强烈的迹象表明伊朗在其中扮演了角色。但问题在于，所谓“扮演了角色”到底参与了什么？我们依然一无所知。因为官方既不解释内情，警方也三缄其口，而我的消息源更是异常谨慎，坚称危险仍未解除。 也就是说，你眼前摆着的是一桩真正令人困惑、但又迫在眉睫的巨大谜团：一方面涉及伊朗，另一方面则直指驻扎着美国最昂贵、最具威慑力战机的英国空军基地。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: So now, just as we thought, well, maybe this wasn't something despite what my sources continue to tell me was quite serious. Now, here's another instance where at least the police are saying, you know, there's cause enough to arrest this person. He too was released on bail, however. And so we have suspects piling up, but there's no clear understanding of kind of where this is going. But then late last week, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham says that there are strong indications that Iran played a part. But the question is a part of what? We still don't know, you know, what is this? Because he's not explaining what's going on. The police aren't explaining. And my sources are being very coy. They're saying this is still live. There's still danger out there. Uh-huh. So, what you have on your hands at this point is a genuinely confounding and yet urgent mystery surrounding Iran and a British base that has some of America's most expensive and high-powered military planes.
**埃里克·施密特**: 没错。我的消息人士一直在警告我：“千万别轻视这件事。就算地面的这帮人看起来像乌合之众、行为逻辑杂乱无章，但这一切背后绝对有极度险恶的图谋。你必须保持紧盯，因为执法和安全部门正在全力以赴应对。” 紧接着在周日，美国军方采取了一项极其罕见、极不寻常的行动，彻底印证了他们对这一威胁的高度戒备与恐惧。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: That's right. And my sources are still telling me, "Don't give up on this. Even though these guys look like mopes on the ground and you can't make sense of what's happening here, there's something quite sinister behind all this and you got to stay on it because the authorities are on it as well." And then on Sunday, the United States military does something so unusual, so extraordinary, it underscores how serious they consider this threat still to be.
### 紧急疏散：连夜撤离 B-1 轰炸机 **迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 我们马上回来。 埃里克，请讲讲美军究竟做了什么，足以暴露出他们对当前局势的恐慌程度？你又是如何理解他们这一举动的？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: We'll be right back. So, Eric, explain what the US does that conveys just how frightened it is about the situation and why you come to understand they do it.
**埃里克·施密特**: 美军在费尔福德空军基地部署了大约十几架 **B-1 枪骑兵轰炸机**。这些轰炸机此前一直被用于针对伊朗的作战行动。虽然近期没有执行实质性轰炸任务，但它们一直在进行日常训练飞行。在逮捕行动频繁展开的整整一周时间里，轰炸机始终在正常起降。 然而就在周日，突发紧急新闻从英国传来：美军紧急撤离 B-1 轰炸机群！
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: So, the US has about a dozen of these B-1 bombers at the Fairford Air Base. And these are bombers that have been used in the war against Iran. And they haven't been used on any missions lately, but they've been flying on training missions. And during the whole course of this previous week, when all these arrests are being made and everything's going on, the bombers are still flying. But suddenly on Sunday,
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 来自英国的突发新闻：美军 B-1 轰炸机紧急撤回。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Breaking news from England, the urgent withdrawal of American B-1 bombers,
**埃里克·施密特**: 它们正在全速撤离。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: They're moving out.
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 如此紧急地重新部署这一级别的核心军力资产，是极其不寻常的动作。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: This is a highly unusual move to redeploy these kind of military assets urgently.
**埃里克·施密特**: 他们正在以最快速度将所有轰炸机撤回美国本土。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: They're moving all these bombers back to the United States as fast as they possibly can.
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 首先，在冲突仍在持续之际，把十几架核心 B-1 战略轰炸机从前沿据点调离得更远，绝非小事。必然是某种极其严峻的情况让他们寝食难安。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: First of all, moving a dozen B-1 bombers further away from an ongoing conflict is no small decision. So something must have made them jittery.
**埃里克·施密特**: 我立刻向消息源打探：“为什么？到底发生了什么？”对方告诉我：“我们收到了全新情报，表明我们一直担忧的威胁变得空前尖锐。我们极度担心基地袭击随时可能发生，必须尽快让这些庞然大物离开这里！” 更足以证明这次撤退有多么仓促和突兀的是，一位消息人士向我透露，部分轰炸机在紧急起飞离开跑道时，**军方甚至连空中加油机都还没安排妥当**！指令基本上就是：“先飞离费尔福德再说，至于怎么在大西洋上空给它们加油、怎么保证它们有足够燃油飞回美国本土，飞上去后再想办法解决！”在起飞的那一刻，他们甚至连保证全程燃油的完整方案都没来得及制定好。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: And I'm asking my sources, why? What's happened? And he said, "We've gotten new intelligence that shows that threat that we've been worried about all along has become even more acute. And we are very concerned that the plot could happen at any time. The attack of a base could happen any time. And we have to get these giant aircraft out of here as soon as possible." But just to underscore how rushed this is and how abrupt this departure is, one of my sources tells me that they don't even have the aerial refueling planes ready for some of these bombers even as they're starting to take off. It's just like get them out of Fairford for now and we'll figure out how to fuel them to get back out over the Atlantic Ocean and back to the United States. We'll figure that out later. They don't even have a plan to make sure they have enough fuel to get back to the US.
### 致命假想：无人机突袭模式 **埃里克·施密特**: 没错。他们几乎是在边飞边临时应变。除非面临绝对危机或者迫在眉睫的巨大危险，美国空军绝不可能以这种方式运作。而且请记住，这里不是天天有导弹和无人机倾泻而下的中东战区，这里是远在伊朗两千多英里开外的英国！然而，前线指挥官们态度坚决，国防部长**皮特·赫格塞斯**（Pete Hegseth）在最终批准该决定时也深信：出于万全的谨慎考虑，必须现在就撤走机群，绝不能承担它们被伊朗特工突袭摧毁的风险。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: That's right. I mean, they're kind of making up on the fly. The United States Air Force just doesn't work like this unless it's an absolute crisis or they fear it could be a crisis. And again, this is not the Middle East where you've got Iran raining missiles and drones down on your base. This is in England, more than 2,000 miles away from Iran. And yet the commanders felt strongly enough, and obviously Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who ultimately approved this, felt strongly enough that it's better out of an abundance of caution to get the planes out now than take the chance that they could be struck by some kind of Iranian operative.
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 埃里克，在轰炸机紧急疏散的消息曝光后，你还打听到了什么细节？究竟是什么具体情报让美军如此惊恐万状，以至于不顾一切火速将飞机拽回本土？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Well, talk about, Eric, what you learn in the aftermath of that original tip that these bombers were going to be evacuated about what specifically makes the US military so worried, so freaked out that it races to yank these planes back to the US.
**埃里克·施密特**: 让他们坐立不安的具体绝密情报是：无论这些伊朗代理人具体是谁，他们企图获取**武装无人机**，向基地发动突袭，进而炸毁美军战机，并有可能造成基地内的美军官兵伤亡。 我的消息源指出，这一战术构想极有可能是松散地借鉴了乌克兰去年针对俄罗斯境内实施的突袭行动——当时乌方将无人机伪装藏匿在货车卡车中偷运过境，随后在俄罗斯腹地远程发射，一举摧毁了俄境内的十几架战略轰炸机。那次行动对乌克兰而言是一次重大的宣传战胜利，对莫斯科则是沉重一击。因此，如果伊朗支持的代理人能够弄到无人机——我们都知道如今弄到无人机有多么轻而易举——装上弹药或简易爆炸物，甚至就在离基地围栏区区四分之一英里的那辆货车停靠点原地发射，就足以造成毁灭性打击。而这对德黑兰而言，将是一场巨大的战略胜利。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: So the specific intelligence they got, very sensitive intelligence that made them so concerned was that somehow these Iranian proxies, whoever they may be, were going to get their hands on armed drones, launch them at the base and perhaps destroy or damage the aircraft and possibly kill American personnel that are at this base itself. And this, my sources tell me, could be loosely modeled on a plot that Ukraine carried out last year against Russia where they were able to smuggle drones in under the guise of some trucks and then launch them deep inside of Russia. Destroyed over a dozen of these strategic bombers inside of Russia. It was a huge propaganda win for the Ukrainians and a real blow to Moscow. So if somehow these Iranian-backed proxies could get their hands on drones, and we know how easy it is to get drones these days, arm them with some kind of munitions or explosives and perhaps launch them just where even this van was, just a quarter-mile away from the fence line at the base. This could cause tremendous damage, and it would also be a huge win for the Iranians.
### 不对称作战：从波斯湾延伸至欧洲 **迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 我很高兴你再次提到了那些货车，埃里克，因为这正是我心中最自然的疑问：伊朗代理人或特工在英国境内获取无人机并袭击美军战机的这一理论威胁，根据你的消息源，是否与当初在那三辆货车里被抓的人存在直接关联？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Well, I'm glad you mentioned the van again, Eric, because that's my natural question. Does that theoretical threat that somehow Iranian proxies or operatives could get their hands on drones and deploy them inside the United Kingdom at these US planes? Does that in any way connect back according to your sources to these men in those vans?
**埃里克·施密特**: 迈克尔，倒不一定特指被扣押的那几辆货车，但完全可能是我们尚未发现的其他货车。这正是大家担忧的关键所在。请记住，如果那是一场调虎离山的声东击西，基地其他角落是否藏匿着装满无人机的货车？那天晚上袭击虽然没有发生，但未来完全可能上演。正是这种恐惧，促使空军做出了撤离机群的决断。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: Well, not specifically those vans, Michael, but it could be other vans that we haven't seen. You know, that's the concern. Again, remember if this was a diversion, perhaps there were other vans at a different part of the base that were loaded with drones. I mean, that didn't happen the other night, but it could. That's the fear that prompted the Air Force to do what they did.
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 这说明与你交谈的情报官员对这些伊朗代理人及其潜在破坏力有着极高的评估。因为我和你讨论伊朗问题很多年了，我们从来没有遇到过伊朗竟然有能力把无人机部署到欧洲本土实施袭击的局面。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Well, all of this suggests that the intelligence folks you're talking to have a pretty high estimation of these Iranian proxies and what they're capable of. Because I have been talking to you about Iran for years now and we've never reached the point where Iran was anywhere near deploying drones in Europe of all places.
**埃里克·施密特**: 确实如此。但纵观这场对伊战争的始末，伊朗方面从一开始就十分清楚，当美以联手发起攻击时，他们在常规军事层面根本无法同美军硬碰硬。因此，他们采取了军方所谓的“**不对称优势**”策略：他们在**霍尔木兹海峡**袭扰过往商船以造成经济剧痛——
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: That's right. But we've seen from the very beginning of the Iran War, basically they understood that when Israel and the United States launched the attack on Iran that the Iranians were not going to be able to go toe-to-toe, military-to-military with them. So what they did was a number of things that as the military says use asymmetric advantage. They attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to inflict economic pain—
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 而且确实造成了巨大的经济创伤。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: And did inflict tremendous economic pain.
**埃里克·施密特**: 完全正确。随后他们攻击了周边海湾邻国的民用基础设施和石油设施，引发了进一步的经济动荡与政治焦虑；他们还轰炸了海湾各地的美军基地，摧毁了价值数亿甚至数十亿美元的军事设施；最近他们更袭击了位于约旦的美军基地，导致三名美军士兵阵亡。 因此，他们一直在最大化利用武器库中残存的无人机和导弹资产，不仅给美国造成实质打击，更重创了国际经济秩序。而在我的消息源看来，费尔福德事件不过是那场冲突的延伸，只不过这一次他们正在将战场提升至一个全新的维度：把无人机或相关技术偷运到直接参战的核心基地周边。当这种威胁浮出水面时，美国官员和英国同仁绝不敢等闲视之。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: Exactly. And then they attacked civilian infrastructure and oil facilities in neighboring Gulf countries causing more economic turmoil and political disturbance there. They struck American military bases, destroying hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars worth of bases throughout the Gulf. And then they most recently attacked a base in Jordan, killing three service members there. Right? So, they have been able to use what they have left in their arsenal, be it drones or missiles, to inflict pain, not only on the United States, but on the international economic community. Well, according to my sources, this is just an extension of that war, except now they're taking it to a different level. They're basically moving their drones or the drone technology they can get their hands on to a base that's very much participating in the war. And so when we see this kind of a threat materialize, the American officials and those working with them in Britain took this quite seriously,
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 他们将其视为极其严峻的信号——标志着伊朗迄今为止行之有效的不对称战术可能翻开完全崭新且极具毁灭性的一页，即以微小的成本与手段达成巨大的轰动效应。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Right? Took it seriously as a potentially entirely new and potentially devastating chapter in Iran's so far quite successful use of asymmetrical attacks where they take kind of what little they have and put it to rather impactful use.
### 政治算计与象征性胜利 **埃里克·施密特**: 没错。因为伊朗除军事意图外，对美国当下的国内政治环境也心知肚明。这场对伊战事在美民众意愿中本就极不受欢迎，共和党在中期选举中的选情也举步维艰。对于伊朗而言，如果能再给予一次重击——击毁一架驻英美军战机或杀伤基地人员——这不仅会对美国及特朗普总统构成重创，在德黑兰眼里更将是一次非凡的战略大捷。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: That's right. Because Iran, among other things, is very aware of the political environment here in the United States. The Iran war is deeply unpopular. The Republicans are not doing well so far in the midterm election campaigns. And for the Iranians, if they could inflict one more powerful blow, that is inflict damage on an American aircraft, American personnel in England, that would not only deal a huge blow to the United States and perhaps to President Trump, but it would also be a real coup for Tehran.
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 尽管这种最坏的情形尚未发生，但我认为客观而言，伊朗在此刻实际上已经取得了相当重大的战果：他们迫使美国紧急将十几架最尖端的战略轰炸机撤出英国撤回本土，这本身就已经构成了一次巨大的象征性胜利。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Mhm. And so far, of course, that has not happened. But I think it's fair to say that the Iranians have already done something pretty significant here. They have forced the US to pull a dozen of their most sophisticated bombers out of the UK and rapidly return them home to the US, which in and of itself does seem like a symbolic blow.
**埃里克·施密特**: 毫无疑问，他们已经达成了核心目标之一。诚然五角大楼会声称，他们依然可以从美国本土起飞轰炸机执行打击任务，但从本土直飞伊朗执行远程任务，比起从英格兰前沿基地发起打击，其难度和飞行周期都不可同日而语。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: Absolutely. They have achieved one of their major objectives. Now, the Pentagon will tell you they can still launch those planes from bases in America, but it's a much more difficult mission, a much lengthier mission all the way back to Iran than it is striking targets from England.
### 盟友的疑虑：这真的值得吗？ **迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 作为最后一个问题，我很想知道英国民众和英国政府对此作何感想？这是否会让英国内部质疑为美军参与战事的轰炸机提供基地部署的合理性？从法律层面讲，英国并非本轮冲突的直接参战方，英军没有参战，英国战机也没有轰炸伊朗，但伊朗现在的态度显然是：“我们已经把英国视作交战同谋。”基地周边的社区居民无疑陷入了恐慌，民选官员恐怕也难以接受。据你了解，那里的社会情绪是怎样的？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: I'm curious, Eric, as a final question, what the British people and the British government make of all of this? Does it make them in any way question hosting US military bombers that are involved in this war? I mean, Britain is not technically a co-combatant in this conflict. British troops are not involved. British planes are not involved in attacking Iran, but Iran is saying that's how we now think of you. The people in the community around this base are no doubt pretty spooked by all this. I'm sure elected officials can't be thrilled about it all. What is your understanding of the viewpoint there?
**埃里克·施密特**: 我想围绕这起阴谋仍有大量疑问悬而未决，英国公众以及费尔福德当地的居民至今依然摸不着头脑，想弄清楚到底发生了什么，或者未来还会发生什么。 但正如你所指出的，数十年来一直为美国提供军事基地庇护的海湾国家，在从被毁基地、城市及能源设施的废墟中清理残骸时，如今也在发出完全相同的质问：“听着，我们达成的合作契约本应是你们负责保护我们免受此类威胁。”面对摆在面前的惨重破坏，海湾国家正在反思：“这真的值得吗？”并重新审视未来的盟友关系。显而易见，如果类似的破坏降临在英国本土，英国民众必然也会发出同样的灵魂拷问：
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: I think there are still so many questions swirling around this plot, Michael, that I think the British people and certainly the people in Fairford are still scratching their heads wondering what exactly has happened or is still yet to come. But to your point, countries in the Gulf region that have sponsored the United States, hosted American bases for decades, are asking this very question now as they kind of dig out from the rubble, not only of the bases that have been attacked, but some of their cities and some of their energy facilities and say, "Look, part of the bargain here was you've got to protect us from threats like this." And I think they're coming away now looking at the damage that's been inflicted upon them and they're asking, "Wow, was this really worth it?" and they're going to rethink that kind of relationship going forward. Obviously, if this were to happen on British soil, I'm sure at least some British residents would wonder the same question.
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 这到底值不值得？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Is it worth it?
**埃里克·施密特**: 没错，到底值不值得？尽管这座基地的历史可以追溯到1944年为诺曼底登陆而启用，具有悠久的历史渊源，美军的 **B-52**、**B-1** 和 **B-2** 轰炸机多年来也屡屡在此驻扎，但这里同样一直是反战抗议的风暴中心。早在此前伊拉克战争爆发时的2003年，基地外就曾爆发过激烈抗议，反对英国政府允许五角大楼利用费尔福德对伊拉克执行轰炸任务。倘若费尔福德真的遭遇袭击，必将迫使英国政府深刻重新审视：自己究竟该在多大程度上允许美国借用英国本土的军事基地，去卷入美国在中东发动的战事之中。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: Yeah. Is it worth it? Even though there's a long, storied history of this base going back to it opening just in time for the D-Day invasion in 1944, and that American bombers—B-52s, B-1s, and B-2s—have used this over the years, but it's also been a source of controversy. Early in the Iraq War in 2003, there were protests at the base over the British government allowing the Pentagon to use Fairford for bombing missions into Iraq. And you know, were there to be an attack at Fairford, it could lead to a reconsideration by the British government of just how much leeway it gives to allowing the United States to use its bases for America's wars in the Middle East.
**迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 埃里克，非常感谢你，受教了。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Well, Eric, thank you very much. Appreciate it.
**埃里克·施密特**: 谢谢你。
Original English **Eric Schmitt**: Thank you.
### 今日要闻与片尾鸣谢 **迈克尔·巴尔巴罗**: 我们马上回来。 以下是您今天还需要了解的其他新闻： 周二，白宫官员突然改口推翻先前的表态，称其竞选团体无意向联邦政府偿还此前一系列异乎寻常的电视广告费用。这批在中期选举前夕播放、歌颂**特朗普总统**及其政绩的广告由美国纳税人买单。这些在各大主流电视台播放的广告耗费了纳税人逾1000万美元，不仅涉嫌违反联邦法律，还招致了两党议员的一致抨击。正是两党的猛烈抨击，促使特朗普在周一公开承诺其超级政治行动委员会（Super PAC）将向政府悉数归还广告款。然而到了周二，总统显然已经改变了主意。 本期节目由亚历克斯·斯特恩（Alex Stern）、拉谢尔·班霍（Rashelle Banjo）和迈克尔·西蒙·约翰逊（Michael Simon Johnson）联合制作。帕特里夏·威林斯（Patricia Willins）编辑。配乐由玛丽安·洛萨诺（Marian Lozano）提供，音响工程由克里斯·伍德（Chris Wood）负责。主题音乐由 Wonderly 创作。 以上就是今天的《每日新闻》，我是迈克尔·巴尔巴罗。我们明天再会。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. On Tuesday, in an abrupt reversal, White House officials said that there were no plans for campaign groups to reimburse the federal government for a series of unusual TV commercials paid for by US taxpayers that praised President Trump and his presidency ahead of the midterm elections. The ads, which have run on major TV stations, have cost taxpayers more than $10 million, could violate federal law, and have brought criticism from members of both parties. That criticism prompted Trump to say on Monday that his super PAC would repay the government for the ads. But by Tuesday, it appeared that the president had changed his mind. Today's episode was produced by Alex Stern, Rashelle Banjo, and Michael Simon Johnson. It was edited by Patricia Willins, contains music by Marian Lozano, and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Wonderly. That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.