--- author: All-In Podcast date: '2026-05-01' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpC4sbawSzQ speaker: All-In Podcast tags: - ai-market-dynamics - compute-infrastructure - ai-security - model-efficiency - drug-innovation title: OpenAI业绩未达预期，AI算力瓶颈凸显，巨头资本支出激增，新型减肥药引关注 summary: 本期节目深入探讨了OpenAI用户和营收未达预期的问题，分析了AI算力（特别是电力）成为行业发展瓶颈的现状。嘉宾们讨论了OpenAI与Anthropic在产品和市场份额上的竞争，以及AI在网络安全领域的应用潜力。此外，节目还关注了大型科技公司在AI基础设施上的巨额资本支出及其对自由现金流的影响，并介绍了Eli Lilly新型减肥药Retatrutide的惊人临床试验数据。最后，节目还简要提及了Elon Musk对OpenAI的诉讼以及最高法院的听证会。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: ai-ml area: tech-engineering project: [] people: - Elon Musk - Sam Altman - Greg Brockman - Dario Amodei - George Kurtz - Nash - Sarah Frier - Sergey Brin - James Carville - Ted Cruz - William Rehnquist - Ketanji Brown Jackson - Aaron Levy - Matthew Glacius companies_orgs: - OpenAI - Anthropic - Google - Microsoft - Amazon - Meta - SpaceX - Eli Lilly - EPA - Supreme Court - Palo Alto Networks - CrowdStrike - BCG - MIT - Cisco - Bayer - Monsanto - Oracle - Apple - Row products_models: - ChatGPT - GPT-5.5 - Opus 4.7 - Gemini - Mythos - Retatrutide - Tirzepatide - DeepSeek 4 - Grock - Cursor - Sparks media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 播客开场与幽默环节 **Jason**: 杰森，你想给我们讲讲你新发现的那个最喜欢的播客吗？哦，太棒了。我的订阅现在是，你知道，自从取消文化结束以来，萨克斯，现在每个人都用那个“R词”和“F词”。我Instagram上的整个动态要么是关于同性恋，要么是唐氏综合症，要么是斗牛犬。就是这三者之一。然后我偶然发现了**Miss Thing pod**，**Miss Thing**。他们有一个环节叫“同性恋名字，异性恋名字”。这是给大卫的“同性恋名字”或“异性恋名字”。有好消息也有坏消息，弗里德。我们开始吧。
Original English **Jason**: Jason, do you want to tell us about your new favorite podcast? Oh, it's so good. My feed is now because, you know, since cancel culture ended, Sachs, everybody uses the R word and the f word right now. My entire feed on Instagram is either gay or down syndrome or bulldogs. It's one of those three. And then I stumbled upon the **Miss Thing pod**, **Miss Thing**. And they do a bit called gay name, straight name. Here's gay name or straight name for David. This good news and bad news freeird. Here we go.
**发言人**: 同性恋名字还是异性恋名字？
Original English **Speaker**: Gay name or straight name?
**发言人**: 大卫。
Original English **Speaker**: David.
**发言人**: 对我来说，大卫是异性恋。
Original English **Speaker**: David to me is straight.
**发言人**: 好的。但他拥有我完美的身材。这可能会让人困惑，因为我有点像，“你是同性恋吗？”然后就变成了，“不，我只是想成为你，大卫。”
Original English **Speaker**: Okay. But he has my perfect body. It can be confusing because I'm kind of like, are you gay? And it's like, no, I just want to be you, David.
**发言人**: 完全是。就像**米开朗基罗的大卫**，男性理想。身材令人难以置信，有点小。抱歉。
Original English **Speaker**: Totally. Well, it's so like the **Michelangelo's David** the male ideal. It's like incredible body kind of small. Sorry.
**发言人**: 是的。
Original English **Speaker**: Yeah.
**发言人**: 哦。
Original English **Speaker**: Oh,
**发言人**: 有点粗糙。
Original English **Speaker**: it's a little rough.
**发言人**: 什么？
Original English **Speaker**: What?
**发言人**: 你在那看什么，贾尔？
Original English **Speaker**: What are you watching there, Jal?
**发言人**: 他们基本上把这两个人说对了，但，好吧，继续。
Original English **Speaker**: They basically nailed these two, but okay, keep going.
**发言人**: 我不认为**Chamath**在他们的短名单上，但我知道**Jason**迟早会出现。
Original English **Speaker**: I don't think **Chimoth** is on their short list, but I know **Jason** will come up at some point.
**发言人**: 同性恋名字还是异性恋名字？
Original English **Speaker**: Gay name or straight.
**发言人**: 也许就是这个。
Original English **Speaker**: Maybe this is it.
**发言人**: **Chamath**。
Original English **Speaker**: Chimoth
**发言人**: 三、二、一。同性恋。我看到的是意大利毛衣，那种非常响亮鲜艳的毛衣。他穿着它去和他的朋友们打扑克之夜，不是那种异性恋扑克，我说的是酒吧里的同性恋扑克之夜。
Original English **Speaker**: on the count of three. Yeah. Three, two, one. gay. I'm seeing like Italian sweater, like really kind of like a loud vibrant sweater. He like wears it to like poker night with his like his boys and like not I'm not talking like straight poker. I'm talking like gay poker nights like at the bar.
**发言人**: 是的。总是谈论葡萄酒。
Original English **Speaker**: Yeah. Always talking about wine.
**发言人**: 谈论葡萄酒。
Original English **Speaker**: Talks about wines.
**发言人**: 总是有点像。是的，没错。
Original English **Speaker**: Always sort of like Yeah, exactly.
**发言人**: 是的。还有，就像健身房里那个脱掉衬衫自拍的家伙。
Original English **Speaker**: Yep. Also, it's so like the guy at the gym taking off his shirt, taking selfies.
**发言人**: 是的。其他人都有点像，“对不起，**Chamath**。我想用镜子。我想看看我自己。”
Original English **Speaker**: Yeah. And everyone else is kind of like, "Excuse me, **Chimoth**. I'd like to use the mirror. I'd like to see myself.
**发言人**: 下次扑克之夜见。
Original English **Speaker**: See you at the next day." Poker night.
**发言人**: 完全是。
Original English **Speaker**: Totally.
**发言人**: 你带酒。
Original English **Speaker**: You bring the wine.
**发言人**: 我们带毛衣。
Original English **Speaker**: We'll bring the sweater.
**发言人**: 是的。
Original English **Speaker**: Yeah,
**发言人**: 就在那里。哇。他们确实做到了。
Original English **Speaker**: there it is. Wow. They did do.
**发言人**: 太棒了。太棒了。向**Miss Thing**播客的伙计们致敬。
Original English **Speaker**: That is fantastic. That is fantastic. A shout out to my guys at the **Miss Ding** podcast.
**发言人**: 哇，太棒了。我想我是同性恋。我以前从不知道。
Original English **Speaker**: Wow, that was awesome. I think I'm gay. I never knew.
**发言人**: 让你的赢家继续。
Original English **Speaker**: Let your winners ride.
**发言人**: 它说我们把它开源给了粉丝，他们都为之疯狂。
Original English **Speaker**: And it said we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.
**发言人**: 你做了像**Cameo**那样的吗？你付钱让他们做那个了吗？
Original English **Speaker**: What did you do like cameo? Did you pay them to do that?
**发言人**: 他们帮我做的，作为一个人情。所以他们为我做了。
Original English **Speaker**: Did it for me as a favor. So they did it for
**发言人**: 太棒了。嗯，谢谢那些伙计们，**Miss Thing**。我以前在短片里见过他们。我觉得他们很有趣。
Original English **Speaker**: That's awesome. Well, thanks to those guys to the miss. I've seen those guys before in clips. I find them very funny.
**发言人**: 太棒了。向我的伙计们致敬。
Original English **Speaker**: It's so great. Shout out to my guys.
**发言人**: 太棒了。
Original English **Speaker**: That was awesome.
### OpenAI业绩与市场竞争 **Jason**: 好的，各位。说真的，欢迎回到世界上第一的播客。这是**All-In**播客，再次有我，**David Freebergia**，**David Saxs**，当然还有我，**Jason Calcanis**。如果你是第一次来，可以叫我**Jay Cal**。第一个话题，**OpenAI**。他们的**ChatGPT**用户和收入都未达目标。我们来谈谈这个。**《华尔街日报》**在周二的一份突发调查报告中称，**OpenAI**原预计在2025年底前达到10亿周活跃用户，但他们错过了这个目标，并且在2026年过了四个月后仍未达到这个里程碑。此外，**Chamath**，他们也错过了2025年**ChatGPT**的收入目标。具体数字没有说明，但正如我们在这里讨论过的，他们的年化收入在200-300亿美元之间。行业中还有一些会计上的细微差别尚未解决。这件事之所以重要，有两个原因。**Sachs**，**OpenAI**在计算资源方面有6000亿美元的支出承诺。从这个角度来看，这大约是他们在二级市场上的交易价值。换句话说，整个**OpenAI**企业的价值等于他们未来一年的支出承诺。据报道，即将出席**Liquidity**会议的首席财务官**Sarah Frier**担心，收入增长不足以跟上支出，而**OpenAI**希望在今年晚些时候上市。这使得**Frier**和**Altman**之间产生了冲突，或者说，可能存在一些自然的紧张关系。**Frier**认为**OpenAI**尚未准备好满足公开报告标准。根据**《华尔街日报》**的报道，**Altman**显然希望更快行动，所以他们发布了一份联合声明，称这很荒谬等等。我们来听听你的看法，**Saxs**。你认为这里发生了什么？这些是主要的逆风，还是仅仅作为这个时代最重要的竞赛——通往超级智能的竞赛——的领跑者在管理预期？
Original English **Jason**: All right, everybody. Seriously, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. It's the **All-In** podcast with me again, **David Freebergia**, **David Saxs**, and of course, I'm **Jason Calcanis**. You can call me **Jay Cal** if you're here for the first time. Topic one, **OpenAI**. They missed their targets for **ChatGPT** **Freedberg** both on users and revenue. Let's talk about it. The **Wall Street Journal** says in a uh a breaking investigative report on Tuesday that **OpenAI** expected to hit 1 billion wows weekly active users before the end of 2025. They missed that and they still haven't hit the milestone 4 months into 2026. Also, **Chamath**, they missed their 2025 revenue target for **Chad GPT**. Exact number wasn't specified, but as we've talked about here, they're at a 2030 billion run rate. There's a little bit of accounting nuance that is yet to be worked out in the industry. Two reasons why this matters. **Sachs**, **OpenAI** has **$600 billion** in spending commitments for **compute**. Just to put that in perspective, that's about what they're trading for on secondary markets. In other words, the entire value of the **Open AI** enterprise equals their spend commitments in the coming year. CFO **Sarah Frier**, who is coming to **liquidity**, is reportedly worried, hey, that revenue isn't growing fast enough to keep up with expense and **OpenAI** wants to IPO later this year. This has put **Frier** and **Oughtman** in conflict or uh maybe there's some natural tension there. **Frier** doesn't think **OpenAI** is ready for public reporting standards. According to the **Wall Street Journal**, **Altman** obviously wants to move faster, so they released a joint statement. this is ridiculous yada yada yada. Let's go to you **Saxs**. What do you think's going on here? Are these major headwinds or is this just managing expectations as the leader of the pack in the most important race of our lifetimes, the race towards super intelligence?
**Saxs**: 嗯，实际上我对此有一个有点逆向的看法。我知道**OpenAI**度过了非常糟糕的一周。就像你说的，他们有那篇**《华尔街日报》**的文章，说他们错过了他们的数字。他们错过了10亿用户增长目标。他们错过了收入数字。这让人质疑他们是否能负担得起他们所做的**数据中心**承诺。除此之外，他们这周还与**Elon**发生了诉讼。所以在媒体上，我认为对他们来说是相当糟糕的一周。但我对此有一个逆向的看法，那就是我认为在过去的一两周里，如果你看看产品层面发生的事情，对他们来说是相当不错的几周。他们发布了**ChatGPT 5.5**，我与**硅谷**的人交谈过的反馈都非常强烈。你和开发者、程序员交谈，他们都非常满意。与此同时，**Anthropic**最新发布的**Opus 4.7**似乎失败了。人们都在抱怨它。在很多情况下，他们都回滚到了**4.6**。他们说**Opus 4.7**正在限制计算资源。它减少了思考时间，效果不如以前。**Claude**中也存在一些错误。所以如果你只比较**ChatGPT 5.5**和**Opus 4.7**，**OpenAI**在产品层面似乎度过了更好的几周。而且我认为有理由相信产品改进将继续下去。**GPT 5.5**是基于一个名为**Spud**的新基础模型，这是他们一年多来首次进行的基础模型升级。拥有一个新的基础模型也将为未来的改进铺平道路。所以我认为**OpenAI**现在对他们的产品感到非常乐观，而且我认为你开始在**X**上看到一些开发者的风向正在转变。我看到很多人说他们正在将他们的编码使用从**Opus**转向**GPT 5.5**。所以我认为**Sam**最终可能是对的，但原因不对。我的意思是，当他做出这些巨大的计算承诺时，是基于消费者端达到10亿用户和实现那些收入目标的估计。消费者业务最终表现疲软。所以他们错过了这些目标。但与此同时，编码已经成为AI最重要的领域。因为他们做出了所有这些计算承诺并建立了这些**数据中心**，他们现在拥有比**Anthropic**更多的计算资源。**Anthropic**受到**token**限制。这降低了他们服务**Mythos**的能力，例如。这导致他们对**Opus 4.7**进行计算门控。我理解**Dario**为什么做出那个决定。我不是说，我的意思是，这是一个谨慎的商业决定。我不是为此批评他，但我认为，**Sam**最终可能是对的，但原因不对，那就是他在消费者方面失算了，但企业业务正在蓬勃发展，这让他现在有能力在代码方面迎头赶上。你的**Poly Market**。
Original English **Saxs**: Well, I actually have a little bit of a contrarian take on this. I know that **OpenAI** had a really bad week. Like you said, they had that **Wall Street Journal** article which said that they missed their numbers. They missed their 1 billion user growth target. They missed their revenue numbers. That's called into question whether they can afford the **data center** commitments that they've made. And then in addition to that, they've also had the lawsuit with with **Elon** happening this week. So in the press, it ended up being I think a pretty bad week for them. But I have a contrarian take on this, which is I think that over the past week or two, if you look at kind of what's happening at the product level, it's been a pretty good couple of weeks for them. They released **chat GBT 5.5** and the reviews from, you know, people I talked to in **Silicon Valley** have been really strong. You talk to developers, coders, they're very happy with it. At the same time, **Opus 4.7**, which is the latest **anthropic** release, appears to be a bust. People are complaining about it. They're in a lot of cases are rolling back to **4.6**. They're saying that **Opus 4.7** is rationing **compute**. It's reducing thinking time, not as good. there were some bugs and **clawed**. So if you just compare **chat GPT 5.5** to **Opus 4.7**, it does appear that **OpenAI** has had a better couple of weeks on a product level. And I think there's reason to believe that the product improvements will continue. **GPT 5.5** is based on a new base model called **Spud**, which is the first base model upgrade they've done in I don't know over a year. and having a new base model will pave the way for future improvements as well. So I think **OpenAI** is feeling pretty optimistic about their product right now and I think you're starting to see on **X** some of the developer mojo is shifting. I'm seeing a lot of people saying that they are shifting their their coding usage from **Opus** to **GPT 5.5**. So I think that **SAM** may end up being right but for the wrong reason. And what I mean by that is that when he made these big **compute** commitments, it was based on those estimates of hitting the billion users on the consumer side and hitting those revenue targets. The consumer business ended up being weak. So they missed those targets. But in the meantime, coding has become the allimportant sector of AI. And because they made all these **compute** commitments and they built out these **data centers**, they have more **compute** than **anthropic** right now. **Anthropic** is **token** constrained. It's reducing their ability to serve **mythos**, for example. It's causing them to engage in **compute gating** with **Opus 4.7**. And I understand why **Daario** made that decision. I'm not saying I mean it was a prudent business decision. I'm not criticizing him for it, but I think again I think **Sam** may end up being right here for the wrong reason, which is he missed on consumer, but enterprise is going gang busters and is giving him the ability now, I think, to catch up on code. your **poly market**
**Jason**: 哪个是现在最重要的市场？
Original English **Jason**: which is the all important market right now
**Jason**: 当然。我们上周谈到了**Grock**和**Cursor**的合作。**Elon**和那边的团队，**Poly Market**现在显示**OpenAI**在2026年底前上市的可能性为32%，这比去年12月的60%有所下降。**Chamath**，你发出了一些警告，说资金有限。**SpaceX**的IPO显然会先进行，如果**OpenAI**今年不上市而**Anthropic**上市，那将形成一个有趣的局面。你对**OpenAI**所做的巨大承诺有什么总体看法？他们会走向悬崖，还是最终会变得辉煌？即使不是出于完全相同的战略原因。
Original English **Jason**: of course and we talked about **gro** and **cursor** teaming up last week **Elon** and the team over there **poly market** showing now a 32% chance that **openai** goes public by the end of 2026 this is down from 60% in December and **Shimath** you gave a bit of a warning hey there's only so many dollars to go around **SpaceX** IPO is obviously getting out first and now if **openai** doesn't go out this year and **anthropic** does the sets up an interesting dynamic. What are your thoughts here generally speaking about the massive commitment that **OpenAI** has made? Are they going to run off the cliff or will it wind up being brilliant? Uh even if it wasn't strategically for the exact reasons,
**Chamath**: 我认为他们会没事的。我认为这是一家万亿美元级别的公司。我认为**Anthropic**也是一家万亿美元级别的公司。我认为现在发生的事情是，人们完全误解了AI世界中实际发生的事情。有一个非常具体的瓶颈正在限制一切，那就是获取驱动这些**token**所需的电力。**OpenAI**之所以未能达到目标，我认为这是因为目前计算能力不足。而且这个问题只会越来越严重。你已经在**Anthropic**身上看到了这一点，他们刚刚找到了一种经济上诱导**Amazon**为他们提供足够容量的方法，这样你就不必通过**Bedrock**来访问**Anthropic**模型。你还看到他们现在正在与**Google**等公司进行差异化交易，在他们已有的基础上增加经济参与，以获得更多容量。我的观点是什么？这个市场的一切都受到**电力**的限制。这些人可能错过数字或预测的原因与需求无关。它完全是100%由于生成输出**token**所需的**电力供应**。今天刚刚宣布了一件非常有趣的事情，这会让问题变得更糟，那就是你现在开始看到积压的不仅仅是**电力**的获取，还有实际所需的**组件**。不仅仅是芯片，不仅仅是天然气涡轮机，现在你谈论的是**变压器**和所有实际的**战术电网基础设施**。为什么这很重要？如果你看看正在建设中的实际**千兆瓦**数量，我们现在存在巨大的不匹配。**Jason**，人们已经宣布了所有这些项目，但实际上只有不到一半正在建设。不到一半。大部分都卡在繁文缛节中。其中大部分是因为存在**供应链**延迟。所以没有可靠的策略来启动这些东西。这会伤害谁？它会最大程度地伤害**Anthropic**和**OpenAI**。这会惠及谁？它会惠及**超大规模云服务商**，特别是**Oracle**、**Amazon**、**Meta**、**Microsoft**和**Google**。现在你将看到一场谈判和来回的交易。我必须放弃多少股权？我必须放弃多少控制权才能获得计算资源，否则我的增长预测会错过多少？现在这意味着，我们上周谈过，这对**Grock**和**SpaceX**来说是一个巨大的机会，因为他们拥有大量的过剩容量。所以我认为**Cursor**的交易只是开胃菜。但如果我是**Elon**，我现在会在这个市场上四处奔走，因为如果模型的质量赶上来，我认为他现在也可以与**Anthropic**或**OpenAI**做一些非常疯狂的事情。也许不是**OpenAI**，因为。
Original English **Chamath**: I think they're going to be fine. I think this is a multi-t trillion dollar company. I think **Anthropic** is a multi-trillion dollar company. I think the thing that's happening right now is uh a complete misunderstanding of what's actually happening inside of the world of AI. And there is one very specific **choke point** that is constraining everything which is access to the **power** that's necessary to drive these **tokens**. To the extent that **open AI** missed, I think what that is is an insight to not enough **compute capacity** today. And that problem is only getting worse. You've already seen that with **Anthropic** as well where they just found a way to economically induce **Amazon** to give them enough capacity so that you don't have to route through **bedrock** to get to the **anthropic models**. You're also seeing them do differentiated deals now with economic participation on top of what they already had from folks like **Google** to give them more capacity. What is my point? Everything in this market is **power constrained**. The reason that these folks may miss a number or a forecast have nothing to do with demand. It is entirely 100% due to the **supply of the power** necessary to generate the output **token**. There is a really interesting thing that was just announced today that will make this problem even worse, which is what you're starting to see now is **backlogs build up** of not just the access to the **power**, but then the **componentry** that's actually necessary. Not just resips and not just NAT gas turbines, but now you're talking about **transformers** and all the actual **tactical grid infrastructure**. Why is this important? If you look at the actual amount of **gigawatts** that are under construction, we have a huge mismatch now, people have announced all these projects, **Jason**, but less than half of it is actually being built. Less than half. Most of it is stuck in **red tape**. Most of that is because there are these **supply chain delays**. So there's no credible strategy to turn any of this stuff on. Who will this hurt? It will hurt **Anthropic** and **OpenAI** the most. Who will this benefit? It will benefit the **hyperscalers**, specifically **Oracle**, **Amazon**, **Meta**, **Microsoft**, and **Google**. And now what you're going to see is a negotiation and a trade back and forth. How much equity do I have to give up? How much control do I have to give up to get access to the **compute** versus how badly will I miss my growth forecasts if I don't? And now what that means is, and we spoke about this last week, that's a huge lane for **Grock** to just run through and **SpaceX** to run through because they have a ton of excess capacity. And so I think the **cursor** deal was the appetizer. But if I were **Elon** now, I'd be running all over this market because if the models catch up in quality, I think he could also do something really crazy with **anthropic** or **open AI** right now. Maybe not **open AI** because of the
**Jason**: 我们稍后会谈到诉讼。
Original English **Jason**: we'll get into the lawsuit in a bit
**Chamath**: 包袱。
Original English **Chamath**: the baggage.
**Jason**: 是的。
Original English **Jason**: Yeah.
**Chamath**: 但是，伙计，他和**Dario**明天就应该达成协议。
Original English **Chamath**: But man, he and **Dario** should do a deal tomorrow.
**Jason**: 所以你的意思是，这里有限的资源是**计算能力**。需求量非常大。
Original English **Jason**: So you're framing, hey, the the limited resource here is **compute**. The demand is off the charts.
**Chamath**: 不，限制性资源是**电力**。电力，然后为计算提供动力，然后提供**token**，然后服务于大量的开发者和协同工作以及所有这些其他项目，消费者和企业都供不应求。明白了。
Original English **Chamath**: No, the limiting resource is **power**. **power** which then powers **compute** which then provides **tokens** which then services the massive uh developer and co-work and all these other projects that consumers and enterprises can't get enough of. Got it.
**Freeberg**: **Jason**，另一个让**Anthropic**和**OpenAI**复杂化的因素是所有那些闲置的东西。其中40%将被取消，因为他们在AI周围营造积极光环方面做得太差了，以至于所有已宣布的项目中有40%被取消，因为过去四年中所有项目中有40%都被取消了。是的。而且人们对**数据中心**、AI、就业等存在一些负面情绪。这造成了一些阻力。人们甚至在社会上做出暴力行为，并将其归咎于**数据中心**和AI。我不想给它太多关注。**Freeberg**，你对我们现在看到的这个棋局有什么看法？无论是通过计算、能源，还是通过在商业层面上市，你知道，资本、计算和能源的战略性质现在在这种巨大的需求中发挥作用。这仍然是一个悬而未决的游戏。**BCG**有一个理论，我想我以前谈过，叫做**“三法则”**，他们一次又一次地表明，任何稳定、成熟、有竞争力的市场都会演变为4:2:1的市场份额比例，基本上占据了90%的市场。所以有一个市场领导者，其市场份额是第二名的四倍，是第三名的两倍。这在几乎所有成熟的、有竞争力的市场中都是如此。所以你可以认为AI可能会演变为消费者市场和企业市场。**OpenAI**，即使他们没有达到10亿用户，他们仍然有9亿周活跃用户，这远远领先于**Claude**。我认为**Claude**可能低于1亿，**Sachs**，你可能知道。然后**Gemini**可能更接近他们，在7亿到10亿之间。可能与**OpenAI**旗鼓相当。所以，你知道，消费者市场看起来正在朝着**ChatGPT**/**Google**争夺第一和第二，然后**Anthropic**可能排第三，也许**Elon**凭借他的计算能力出现并崛起。然后企业市场则是一个不同的故事，那是它自己的市场，**Anthropic**或**Google**可能实际上处于领先地位，如果你看看所有的**Vertex**使用情况。**Google**声称75%的**GCP**客户是**Vertex**的活跃用户。所以**Google**在企业端可能也占据了相当大的市场份额。这可能也是为什么**Google**的股价在过去几个月里一路飙升的原因，他们实际上在企业和消费者市场中处于第一位或正在争夺第一位。但我仍然认为，**Chamath**关于计算和能源容量限制的观点，在改进我们如何在企业和消费者环境中实际扩展和部署模型方面，仍有很大的机会。现在还处于非常早期阶段，我只想强调**MIT**的两位科学家发表的一篇关于**剪枝技术**和**神经网络**的论文。这篇论文表明，你可以将这些网络的大小减少90%。并通过将非常大的模型剪枝成更小的模型来获得相同的准确性。然后你可以选择运行哪个模型进行推理。通过这样做，你实际上可以将**推理成本**降低10倍。你可以用相同单位的能源获得10倍的输出，而不会损失准确性。所以这是一种非常有趣的算法技术，可以应用于现有的**大型模型**，使其能耗大大降低。所以如果你想想看，你正在启动一个非常大的模型来回答一个非常简单的问题。你实际上可以剪枝掉那个模型。现在，这可能在AI应用程序中是如此，就像在传统的**Google搜索**中一样。搜索量有长尾，但有少数搜索占据了很大一部分搜索量。比如天气是什么？电影时间是什么？股票价格是多少？有一组特定的东西构成了消费者能源的大部分。而且可能也有一组特定的东西构成了编码输出的大部分。所以如果你能通过**剪枝技术**将80%的搜索或聊天界面或编码请求减少到更小的模型，然后你拥有一整套可以动态调用的更小的模型，并且将**推理成本**降低90%。你可以大大提高**数据中心**和能源容量的使用效率，比我们今天高10倍。所以我认为我们仍处于提高输出和**token**效率的非常早期阶段，我们只是处于这个非常早期的阶段，这也为像**Elon**这样的人重新发明这种方式并可能积极竞争提供了机会。
Original English **Freeberg**: And **Jason**, the other factor that complicates that for **anthropic** and **open AI** is all the stuff that's sort of sitting around thumb twiddling. 40% of that is going to get cancelled because they've done such a poor job of creating a good positive halo around AI that 40% of all the announced projects get cancelled because 40% of all projects in the last four years have been cancelled. Yeah. And there's there there are some bad feelings about **data centers**, AI, jobs, etc. And that's causing some headwind. People are you literally doing violent things in society and blaming **data centers** and AI for it. I don't want to give it too much air time. **Freeberg**, what's your take on the chessboard we're looking at here? Either through **compute**, **energy** or through going public on a business level, you know, the strategic nature of capital, **compute** and **energy** now playing a role in this massive amount of demand. still a ball in the air kind of game. **BCG** had this theory, I think I talked about this once before, called the **rule of three** where they've shown time and again that any stable, mature, competitive market evolves to a 4:2:1 ratio of market share for basically 90% of the market. So there's a market leader that has four times the market share of the second place, that's two times the market share of the third place. This is the case in pretty much every mature kind of competitive market. So you can kind of think about AI probably evolving into a consumer market and an enterprise market. **Open AAI**, even if they're not at a billion, they're still at **900 million weekly users**, which is well ahead of whatever **Claude** is at. I think **Claude** is like probably subund million **sacks**, you may know. And then **Gemini** is probably closer to them at **700 to a billion** somewhere in that range. Probably pretty neck and neck with **open AI**. So, you know, the consumer market looks like it's trending towards a **chat GPT**/**Google** fight for first place and second place and then probably **anthropic** in third place and maybe **Elon** emerges and takes off enabled by his **compute capacity** and then the enterprise market is a little bit of a different story and that's its own market which is kind of **anthropic** or probably **Google** in the lead actually if you look at all the **vertex** use. **Google** claims that **75% of GCP customers** are active users of **Vertex**. So there's probably a pretty sizable market share that **Google**'s captured on the enterprise side as well. This is also probably why **Google** stock has absolutely ripped over the last couple of months is they're literally in first place or fighting for first place in enterprise and consumer. But I still think that there's a lot of opportunity to **Chimoff**'s point about the **compute** and **energy capacity constraints** in improving how we actually scale and deploy models in both the enterprise and the consumer setting. And it is such early days and I just want to highlight this paper that came out from **MIT** from these two scientists and these guys published a paper on **pruning techniques** and **neural networks**. This paper showed that you could actually reduce the size of these networks by **90%**. And get the same accuracy out by pruning very large models down to smaller models. And then you can make a selection on which model to run for **inference**. And by doing this, you can actually reduce **inference costs** by **10x**. You can get **10x the output per energy unit** that goes into the **data center** with no loss of accuracy. And so it's a really interesting call it **algorithmic technique** that can be applied to the existing **large models** to actually make them much lower **energy use**. So if you think about it, you're firing up a very large model to answer a very simple question. You can actually prune away that model. Now this is probably going to be the case in AI applications as it is in traditional **Google search**. There's a long tale of searches, but there's a few searches that account for a large percentage of search volume. It's like what is the weather? What are the movies times? You know, what's the stock price? Like there's a certain set of things that make up the bulk of consumer energy. And there's probably a certain set of things that probably make up the bulk of coding output as well. And so if you can get that **80% of searches** or chat interfaces or coding requests reduced down through **pruning techniques** to smaller models and then you have a whole set of smaller models that can be called dynamically and you reduce **inference cost** by **90%**. you can make much more use, call it **10 times the use on data center and energy capacity** than we can today. So I would argue that we're still in the very early days of getting efficiency in terms of output and **tokens** and we're just in the very kind of early stage of that which also unlocks the opportunity for guys like **Elon** to reinvent how this is done and potentially compete pretty aggressively.
**Jason**: 有两种获胜方式。你可以投入计算资源，或者你可以使用**SLM**（小型语言模型）和**VSLM**（垂直化小型语言模型）。所以如果你有一个针对天气的垂直化小型语言模型，假设它不存在，但你可以把它作为一个例子。他们会有一个针对旅行的例子。当你向**Google**查询航班信息时，它显然会把你路由到一个更轻更快、使用**Google Flights**的东西。而**Google Flights**已经整合到**Gemini**中。**Gemini**现在紧随其后，拥有7亿到7.5亿用户。
Original English **Jason**: There are two ways to win. You could throw **compute** at it or you can do **SLM**'s small language models and **V SLM**'s verticaliz small language model. So if you had a verticalized small language model for the weather, let's say that doesn't exist, but uh you can you can use it as an example. They will have one for travel as an example. When you hit **Google** for flight information, it's obviously going to route you to something lighter and faster that uses **Google flights**. And **Google flights** has been incor incorporated into **Gemini**. **Gemini** now is right behind **700 750 million users**
**Jason**: 这正是我们18个月前在这个播客上讨论过的，**Freeberg**，如果他们把它放在顶部会怎样？
Original English **Jason**: and it's exactly what we discussed I don't know 18 months ago on this podcast **Freeberg** that what if they put it at the top
**Jason**: 这会对他们的搜索收入产生什么影响？搜索收入正在飙升，他们也在飙升，所以他们找到了一种平衡这两种相互竞争的力量的方法，即拥有AI支持的搜索结果，同时仍然让人们点击链接，他们显然做得非常出色，股价也得到了回报。
Original English **Jason**: and what would that do to their search revenue search revenue is surging and they're also surging so they figured out a way to balance those two competing forces having search results that are AI enabled and still getting people to click on links they've done it brilliantly apparently and the stock is rewarding.
**Freeberg**: 我只想补充一点，你刚才说的，你正在使用我称之为**“人类启发式”**的东西。人类不会直观地知道这个模型是什么。它不仅仅是一个垂直化的模型，还会通过**自动化剪枝技术**发现模型，然后这些模型将协同工作。所以，很多小型模型会相互连接。我们不会用某种人类启发式来定义每个模型，比如这是一个搜索旅行模型。
Original English **Freeberg**: I'll just add one statement to what you said, which is like you're using what I would call a **humanistic** on humans don't intuitively know what this model is. It's not just a verticalized model, but there are going to be models that will be discovered through **automated pruning techniques** that will then be working in concert. So, lots of small models that link together. And we don't define each model by some human heristic like this is a search travel model.
**Freeberg**: 这是一个地图模型。我们不知道这些模型在分解后是如何工作的。但我确实认为这才是进化的真正方向。所以一个模型实际上会变成一个**宏观模型**。它下面有很多更小的模型可以动态调用，这让你能够以相同的能源单位获得10倍的推理能力。
Original English **Freeberg**: This is a maps model. We don't we don't know why these models work the way they do when they get broken down. But I do think that that's really where the evolution is happening. So effectively a model becomes a **macro model**. It's got lots of smaller models underneath it that can be dynamically called and that allows you to have **10x the inference for the same unit of energy**.
**Saxs**: **Saxs**，让我接着你的观点谈谈**Google**。**Jcal**，我想说，如果**OpenAI**未能达到其用户目标和收入目标，尤其是在消费者方面，那么唯一的理由就是**Google**成功地抢占了大量市场份额，你知道，大约一年前他们基本上还一无所有。**Sergey**复出，帮助公司集中精力，就像你说的，他们在改进**Gemini**并将其置于搜索顶部，整合方面做得非常出色。话虽如此，我再次认为**OpenAI**并非全是坏消息，因为我确实认为**5.5**的发布非常棒。我们听到了很多关于**Codeex**的好消息。我确实认为**Codeex**现在正在抢占编码**token**的市场份额。我只是觉得我们正处在一个非常有趣的地方，这些公司不断地互相超越。我的意思是，两周前，**Anthropic**看起来将完全占据主导地位，对吗？我的意思是，**Anthropic**以10倍的速度增长。**OpenAI**以3倍的速度增长，看起来。
Original English **Saxs**: **Sax**, let me just build on your point about **Google**. **Jcal**, I would say that if there's a single reason why **OpenAI** did not hit its user targets and its revenue targets, certainly around consumer, you'd have to say it's because **Google** managed to take meaningful share, you know, they were basically nowhere a year or so ago. **Sergey** came out of retirement, helped focus the company, and like you said, they did a brilliant job improving **Gemini** and putting it at the top of search, incorporating it. Now, that being said, again, I don't think the news is all bad for **OpenAI** because I do think that the **5.5 release** was great. We're hearing really good things about **Codeex**. I do think that **Codeex** is taking share in **coding tokens** right now. And I just think we're in a really interesting place where these companies are constantly oneuping each other. I mean, two weeks ago it looked like **Anthropic** was going to be completely dominant, right? I mean, **Anthropic** was growing at **10x**. **Open AAI** was growing at **3x** and it looked like
**Jason**: 然后服务器开始宕机了。你这周看到了吗？服务器宕机了。我办公室里的人都在抱怨我们无法登录**Claude**。
Original English **Jason**: and then the servers started going down. Did you see that this week? The server going down. People were in my office were complaining we can't get on **claud**.
**Saxs**: 听着，竞争能激发每个人的最佳表现。**Anthropic**迫使**OpenAI**竞争。**Google**迫使**OpenAI**在消费者领域竞争。我只希望市场能尽可能长时间地保持竞争力。我确实认为这对消费者、我们的经济和我们的国家整体都是最好的。让我再说一个我认为**OpenAI**表现不错的地方，那就是网络安全这个热门领域。显然，**Anthropic**凭借**Mythos**引起了巨大轰动。它尚未商业发布。他们的计算能力受限，但作为概念验证或训练模型，它在网络安全方面达到了新的能力水平。但现在**OpenAI**发布了一个名为**GPT 5.5 cyber**的新模型，它刚刚通过了一系列测试，他们展示了这是由**AI安全研究所**进行的测试，**GPT 5.5**是第二个完成其多步骤网络攻击模拟端到端测试的模型。所以它拥有与**Mythos**相同的能力水平，并且似乎已准备好商业化。你知道，他们有计算能力来支持它。所以我确实认为这是一个巨大的成就。我的意思是，我们知道其他网络安全模型即将问世。它不会只有**Mythos**。事实上，在大约6个月内，所有**前沿模型**都将拥有**Mythos**级别的网络安全能力。但**OpenAI**如此迅速地推出这款**GPT 5.5 cyber**令人印象深刻，我认为**5.5**可能是第一个网络防御者实际能够使用的网络安全模型，因为我再次认为他们不像**Anthropic**那样受到计算能力的限制。
Original English **Saxs**: Listen, competition brings out the best in everyone. **Anthropic** forced **open AI** to compete. **Google**'s forced **open AI** to compete in consumer. I just hope the market stays competitive for as long as possible. I do think that's what's best for consumers, our economy, and for our country overall. Let me just say one other area where I think **OpenAI** had a good week is in this red-hot area of **cyber**. Obviously, **Anthropic** made a huge splash with **Mythos**. It hasn't been commercially released. Their **compute constraint**, but as a proof of concept or training model, it hit a new level of capabilities with **cyber**. But now **OpenAI** has released a new model called **GPT 5.5 cyber** which has just been through a bunch of tests and they've shown this was testing done by the **AI security institute** that **GPT 5.5** is the second model to complete one of their multi-step cyber attack simulations end to end. So it has the same level of capability as **Mythos** and it does appear to be commercially ready. You know, they've got the **compute** to serve it. So I do think that that's a big accomplishment. I mean, look, we knew that other **cyber models** were coming. It wasn't just going to be **Mythos**. In fact, within 6 months or so, all the **Frontier models** are going to have **Mythos** level **cyber capability**. But it's impressive that **OpenAI** got this **GPT 5.5 cyber** out. so quickly and I think **5.5** might be the first **cyber model** that **cyber defenders** actually get to use because again I don't think they're as **compute constrained** as **anthropic** is
**Jason**: 这对**CrowdStrike**和**Palo Alto Networks**等公司来说是一个不可思议的机会，这两家公司都曾上过我们的节目。他们走出来，开始攻击这个领域，伙计，你真的可以看到一切都变得更加紧密，这可能成为所有拥有**Cursor**、**Claude**、**OpenAI**或**Gemini**的公司的一个不可思议的收入来源。这是一个绝佳的机会，既可以加强防御，也可以应对攻击。
Original English **Jason**: and this is an incredible opportunity you know for the **crowd strikes** and **PaloAlto networks** of the world both of which have been on the program they come out and they start attacking this space man you could really see everything get tightened up and this could be an incredible revenue stream for everybody who's got whether it's **cursor** **claude** or **open eye** or **Gemini**. This is an amazing opportunity to tighten up as much as it is to get attacked.
**Saxs**: 我能就此发表一点看法吗？因为你看，现在对**Mythos**有太多的恐惧，几乎达到了恐慌的程度。人们把它当作**末日武器**之类的东西。它不是。它只是意味着**前沿模型**已经达到了能够自动化网络活动的地步，就像它们能够自动化编码一样。但这S意味着一个模型可以增强网络攻击者或网络防御者的能力，就像它们可以增强程序员的能力一样，并让他们发现更多漏洞。所以显然存在风险。但我认为重要的是要理解**Mythos**或**GPT 5.5**并不会制造漏洞。它只是发现它们。这些错误早已存在于代码中。它们在那里等待某个黑客发现。如果我们现在能利用AI提前发现这些错误、这些漏洞并修补它们，那么我们实际上就加强了我们的基础设施和安全。我还认为，从所谓的**“AI前网络安全”**到**“AI后网络安全”**的飞跃，我认为将是一个巨大的**一次性升级周期**，因为你将再次发现所有这些休眠的错误和漏洞，但我认为一旦我们度过这个升级周期，你将达到AI驱动的网络攻击和AI驱动的网络防御之间的新平衡，它将变得更加常态化，不会感觉像这样巨大的颠覆。也就是说，我认为人们正在将这视为某种**生存威胁**。我认为只要每个人都做他们应该做的事情，即在黑客掌握这些能力之前，利用新能力来加固他们的代码库、基础设施和安全，就不会是生存威胁。
Original English **Saxs**: Can I make a point about that? Cuz look, there is so much fear right now almost the level of panic about **mythos**. People are treating it like a **doomsday weapon** or something like that. It's not. is simply that the **frontier models** have reached the point where they're capable of automating cyber activities just like they're capable of automating coding. But that means that a model could power up a cyber attacker or cyber defender the same way they can power up a coder and allow them to discover a lot more **vulnerabilities**. So there is obviously a risk there. But I think it's important to understand that **Mythos** or **GPT 5.5**, it doesn't create the **vulnerabilities**. It just discovers them. The bugs were already in the code. They were sitting there waiting for some hacker to discover. If we can now use AI to find these bugs in advance, these **vulnerabilities** and patch them, then you actually harden our infrastructure and and you harden our security. I also believe that this leap from let's call it **preAI cyber** to **post AAI cyber** it's going to be I think a big **one-time upgrade cycle** because again you're going to find all these dormant bugs and **vulnerabilities** but I think that once we get past that upgrade cycle you're going to reach a new equilibrium between AI powered **cyber offense** and AI powered **cyber defense** it's going to become a lot more normal it's not going to feel like this huge disruption which is to say I think you know people are treating this as like some **existential threat**. I don't think it is as long as everyone does what they're supposed to do, which is use the new capabilities to harden their code bases and infrastructure and security before the hackers get a hold of these capabilities.
**Jason**: 是的。**Chamath**，如果你要根据**Saxs**的观点来看这个问题，世界上大约有500万左右的网络安全专家。我们谈到了**token成本**。每周40小时的**token**消耗，你就可以以每个首席安全官或安全专家100美元的价格再创建500万个。所以这就是安全专家代理的数量，**Saxs**，你的观点。是的。你可以拥有5000万个，1亿个。他们不是在寻找独特的东西。他们只是永不休眠。他们不懈地追求这些问题。这是一个非常好的观点。
Original English **Jason**: Yeah. And if **Chimath**, if you were to look at this to build on **Sax**'s point, there are about **5 million** or so **security experts** in the world. We talked about **token cost**. **40 hours of tokens** just pounding it, you know, a week. You could create another **five million** for a hundred dollars per **chief security officer** per **security expert**. So it's the volume of **security expert agent** **saxs** to your point. Yeah. You could have **50 50 million** of them **100 million** of them. They're not finding something unique. They're just they never sleep. They're relentless in their pursuit of these problems. It's a really great point.
**Saxs**: 只是稍微修正一下。是的，网络安全行业可能确实有500万人，但真正精英的黑客可能只有几千人。
Original English **Saxs**: Just kind of just refine that. So yeah, there's probably **5 million people** in the **cyber industry**, but there's probably only a few thousand really **elite hackers**.
**Jason**: 当然。
Original English **Jason**: Sure,
**Saxs**: 这些黑客没有时间去攻击所有可能的攻击向量的整个表面区域。所以如果你训练一个模型来做他们做的事情，显然，就像你说的，它能够以人类黑客无法达到的规模和速度运作。所以显然，你需要做的是将这些工具交到**白帽黑客**手中，让他们自己进行网络攻击，然后发现漏洞并在**黑帽黑客**掌握这些能力之前修补它们。但我认为，最后一点，我就此打住。理解中国模型将在大约6个月内拥有这些能力真的很重要。
Original English **Saxs**: those hackers didn't have the time to go after the entire surface area of every possible attack vector out there. And so if you train a model to do what they do, obviously, like you said, it can operate with a scale and speed that a human hacker can't. So obviously, you know, what you need to do is get these tools in the hands of the **white hats**, let them do the cyber attacks themselves to then find the **vulnerabilities** and patch them before the **black hats** get a hold of these capabilities. But I think it's just just one last point on this, I'll stop. It's just it's really important to understand that the **Chinese models** are going to have these capabilities within approximately **6 months**.
**Jason**: 哦，他们现在肯定在**DeepSeek 4**中拥有这些能力。他们有一定程度的能力。不，**DeepSeek 4**，我的意思是，**DeepSeek 4**在很多方面都令人印象深刻，但它的能力尚未达到前沿水平。可能只有80-85%。我们称之为**美国前沿**。
Original English **Jason**: Oh, they have them now in **Deep Seek 4** for sure. They've got some level. Well, no. **Deepc4**, I mean, **Dec 4** is impressive in a lot of ways, but its capability is not at the frontier. It's maybe 80 80 85%. Let's call it the **American frontier**.
**Jason**: **Chamath**，你想加入讨论。让**Chamath**进来。
Original English **Jason**: **Chimoff**, you wanted to get in on this. Let's get **Chim** in.
**Chamath**: 两件事。之所以这成为可能，是因为人类容易犯错，当人类编写代码时，他们会制造漏洞。所以，人类利用人类是我们长期以来的状况。现在我们有了计算机利用人类，因为计算机去寻找所有人类编写的这些错误。在下一个阶段，将是**机器对机器**。所以我认为网络安全的性质将彻底改变。可能在未来五六年内，将有充分的理由重写所有运行世界的软件。一部分是因为你将被要求展示更多的**运营杠杆**和**收入增长**，但另一部分是因为过去所有手工制作的东西从根本上都是不安全的。无论如何，所有道路都将导致所有运行世界的**运营软件**被重写。越来越多的软件将由机器编写。结果是，越来越多的软件将变得**坚不可摧**。但届时网络威胁实际上只会增加，因为你将尝试找出如何使用一台机器向另一台机器注入东西，以便某个**代理循环**注入一些**恶意软件**或注入一个**不良token**。我认为这是一个非常复杂的事情。我要告诉你的是，我甚至不确定我是否被允许说这个，但是一家非常好的，可能是世界上最好的网络安全公司，由世界上最好的CEO之一运营，他可能会或可能不会在**Liquidity**上发言，他会告诉你他们已经渗透并基本上可以操纵每个模型。让我粗略地这样说。
Original English **Chamath**: Two things. The reason that this is even possible is because humans are errorprone and when humans code, they create holes. And so, humans exploiting humans is where we've been for a long time. Now we have computers exploiting humans because the computers go and seek out all these bugs that humans wrote. In the next phase it'll be **machines versus machines**. And so I think the nature of **cyber** is going to completely change. Probably in the next five or six years there'll be so much reason to rewrite all of the **software** that runs the world. In one part because you're going to be asked to show more **operating leverage** and **revenue growth**, but in another part because everything else that was handmade in the past is just fundamentally insecure. Either way, all roads will lead to all the **operational software** that runs the world will get rewritten. More and more of it will be written by machines. More and more of it will be **impregnable** as a result. But then the **cyber threat** actually will only increase because then you're going to try to figure out how to use a machine to inject something into another machine so that some **agentic loop** inject some **malware** or injects a **bad token**. And I think that's a very complicated thing. What I will tell you is I'm not even sure if I'm allowed to say this, but a very good probably the best **cyber security company** in the world run by one of the very best CEOs in the world who may or may not be speaking at **liquidity** would tell you that they have penetrated and can essentially manipulate every model. Let me just let me just say it roughly that way.
**Jason**: 好的，完美。是的。而且我，在**突破奖**上，我们四个人中有三个人都在场，我与**George Kurtz**谈过，你刚才描述的另一个人不是那个。
Original English **Jason**: Okay, perfect. Yeah. And I uh at the **breakthrough prize** uh which three of the four of us were at I talked to **George Kurtz** the other person you were kind of describing was not that
**Chamath**: 坐在**Nash**旁边。是的，我说的是。
Original English **Chamath**: sitting beside **Nash**. Yeah I'm talking about
**Jason**: **Nash**和**George**是领导**Palo Alto Networks**和**CrowdStrike**的两个人，他们理解**George**告诉我的，那就是想要这个产品或服务的人排起了长队。如果你看看，**Freeberg**，就像谋杀率一样，我们现在正处于人类历史上最低的谋杀率。在我们的一生中，它已经大幅下降，但在历史的长河中更是如此。我认为网络安全也会发生同样的事情。攻击向量只有那么多，剩下的攻击向量将只是**人为因素**，对吧，**Freeberg**？一直都是这样。随着我们让软件更具弹性，那么薄弱环节就是，你知道，秘书把她的便签，你知道，密码写在那里，或者会计师，你知道，用他们的狗的名字加上123作为密码，对吧？那是历史上的一个例子。好的，**Freeberg**，在我们结束之前，你还有什么要补充的吗？哦，那是。
Original English **Jason**: **Nash** and **George** are the two guys leading this **Palo Alto Networks** **Crowd Strike** and they understand the what **George** told me was there is just a line out the door of people who want this product or service. And if you look at it, **Freeberg**, like the murder rate, like we're sitting here with the lowest murder rate in the history of humanity. It has gone down massively in our lifetimes, but massively over the arc of history. I think that's what's going to happen with **cyber**. There is only so many **attack vectors**, and the remaining **attack vectors** are just going to be **human factors**, right, **Freeberg**? That's always been the case. And as we make the software more resilient, then the the weak link is, you know, the secretary who puts her **post-it note**, you know, with the password there or the accountant who, you know, uses their dog's name plus one, two, three for their password, right? That's the the historical one. Okay, let's any anything you want to add, **Free Bird**, as we wrap there? Oh, that's
### AI代理风险与软件开发 **Freeberg**: 顺便问一下，你的床为什么这么乱？你为什么不让客房服务进来打扫呢？
Original English **Freeberg**: Why is your bed so messy, by the way? Why can't you just ask the room service to come in?
**Jason**: 听着，我会告诉你发生了什么。听着，我在**亚特兰大**。还有，你为什么没有一个套房，像有两个房间的那种？就只有一个房间吗？这家酒店只有一个。
Original English **Jason**: Listen, I'll tell I can tell you what happened. Listen, I'm here in **Atlanta**. And also, why don't you have a suite like where there's two rooms? Like, is it just one room? This hotel only has one.
**Freeberg**: 就一个房间。是的。
Original English **Freeberg**: It's just one room. Yes.
**Jason**: 你知道，要么你很抠，要么你很穷。是哪个？我很抠。我告诉你。情况是这样的。我今晚在**亚特兰大**看**尼克斯队**的比赛。
Original English **Jason**: You know, either you're cheap or poor. Which one is it? I'm cheap. Here's I'll tell you what. Here's a situation. I'm in **Atlanta** for the **Knicks** game tonight.
**Freeberg**: 你在一个房间里。
Original English **Freeberg**: You're in one room.
**Jason**: 我是这样做的。我只想向你解释**价值对价值**。有些人把钱花在私人飞机上，他们花3万美元飞到**亚特兰大**。我花3万美元买**场边座位**。我不需要套房。我想把钱花在座位上。
Original English **Jason**: Here's what I do. I just want to explain to you **value for value**. Some people spend their money on **private jets** and they spend **$30,000** flying to **Atlanta**. I spend **30,000** on **courtside seats**. I don't want the suite. I want to put it into the seat side.
**Freeberg**: 你可以两者兼得。我想我也可以两者兼得。我不是，我正在成为。
Original English **Freeberg**: You can do both. I guess I could do both, too. I don't I'm I'm in the process of becoming
**Jason**: 我不明白。
Original English **Jason**: I don't understand
**Freeberg**: 拥抱我的富有。好的。
Original English **Freeberg**: of embracing my richness. Okay.
**Jason**: 如果你已经说服自己应该花3万美元买**场边票**，我认为这很离谱，但好吧。你已经说服自己，比如每张1万美元，但，是的。
Original English **Jason**: If you've already convinced yourself that you should spend **$30,000** for **courtside tickets**, which I think is outrageous, but okay. You've already convinced yourself like **10k** each, but yeah. Yeah.
**Freeberg**: 一个有两个房间的酒店房间。好的。
Original English **Freeberg**: A hotel room that has two rooms. Okay.
**Jason**: 可能比你现在付的钱多15%。
Original English **Jason**: Probably cost **15%** more than what you're paying.
**Freeberg**: 是两倍，但你说的对。
Original English **Freeberg**: It's **2x**, but yes, you're right.
**Jason**: 我会订酒店房间。多20%或20%，但你一个房间每晚200美元。所以你每晚付400美元。你再找一家酒店。
Original English **Jason**: I'll get the I'll get the hotel room. 20 or 20% more, but you room like **200 bucks** a night. So you pay **400** a night. You get another hotel.
**Jason**: 我的意思是，这是**亚特兰大**。我住在最好的酒店，**亚特兰大**最贵的酒店是每晚500美元。没什么大不了的。但一切都卖完了，因为所有**尼克斯队**的人都来了。
Original English **Jason**: I mean it's it's **Atlanta**. The most I'm in the best hotel the most expensive hotel is **500** a night in **Atlanta**. It's no big deal. But everything's sold out because all the **Knicks** people are coming here.
**Freeberg**: 所以你告诉我，两倍就是一千美元，你不能花一千美元。
Original English **Freeberg**: So you're selling me double that would have been a thousand and you couldn't spend,000.
**Jason**: 一切都卖完了，因为**尼克斯队**在这里。
Original English **Jason**: Everything is sold out because the **Knicks** are here.
**Freeberg**: 所以我们必须看你的脏床。
Original English **Freeberg**: So we have to look at your dirty beds.
**Jason**: 太恶心了。
Original English **Jason**: It's gross.
**Freeberg**: 床没那么脏。算了吧。忍着点。好的。把它拿出来发帖。
Original English **Freeberg**: The bed's not that dirty. Come on. Just deal with it. Okay. Take it out and post.
**Saxs**: 我有一个关于飞往**亚特兰大**的私人飞机故事。
Original English **Saxs**: I have a **private jet** story about flying to **Atlanta**.
**Jason**: 你提醒了我。好的。所以，是的，那里有一些活动。所以我带着我的团队飞过去，你知道，我的飞机上有几个人，飞行时间有点长。是大约4个小时吗？
Original English **Jason**: You reminded me. Okay. So yeah, there was some event there. So I I flew my team there, you know, there's a few people on my plane and it's kind of a long flight. Was it like 4 hours or something
**Saxs**: 从后面？是的。
Original English **Saxs**: from the back? Yeah.
**Saxs**: 是的。所以我去了后面睡觉。嗯，首先，你知道，我们开始了飞行，我在飞机上放了几瓶**Pappy Van Winkle**。所以我们先喝了一杯，然后我去了后面睡着了，基本上在飞机降落时醒来。
Original English **Saxs**: Yeah. So I went in the back to to sleep. Well, first, you know, we we started the flight and I had a few bottles of **Papy Van Winkle** on on the plane. And so we started off with like a drink and then I went in the back and and fell asleep and I woke up basically when we landed.
**Saxs**: 所以我出来的时候，三瓶**Pappy Van Winkle**基本上都喝完了。
Original English **Saxs**: So I come out and like all three bottles are basically cashed of like **Happy Van Wink**.
**Jason**: 哎呀。那些每瓶大约两千美元。
Original English **Jason**: Oops. Those were like **two grand a bottle**.
**Saxs**: 不，不，它们更贵。这些是古董瓶。其中一瓶是。
Original English **Saxs**: No, no, they're more. These were like antique bottles. Like one of them was
**Jason**: 我有一瓶你飞机上的那种。我有一瓶旧**Falcon**上的那种。是的。
Original English **Jason**: I have one of those from your plane. I have one of those from the old **Falcon**. Yeah.
**Saxs**: 是的。它们是那种老式的。
Original English **Saxs**: Yeah. They were like these vintage
**Jason**: 4000美元。我记得。是的。
Original English **Jason**: **$4,000**. I remember. Yeah.
**Saxs**: 总之，你现在甚至找不到这东西了。所以这些人，他们降落时问我，“嘿，**Saxs**，你带我们去这个活动花了多少钱？”我说，“嗯，大约8000美元的**航空燃油**，和大约12000美元的**Pappy Van Winkle**。”
Original English **Saxs**: Anyway, you can't even find this [ __ ] anymore. So these guys, they asked me like when we land like, "Hey, **Sax**, how much did it cost for you to fly us to this event?" And I said, "Well, about **$8,000** in **jet fuel** and about **$12,000** of **Happy Van Winkle**."
**Jason**: 嗯，你得给气氛加油，也得给飞机加油。
Original English **Jason**: Well, you gota you got to fuel the the vibes as well as the plane. It's uh
**Freeberg**: **亚特兰大**好吗？我从来没有真正。
Original English **Freeberg**: Is **Atlanta** nice? I've never really
**Jason**: 那些人还在为你工作吗？或者他们。
Original English **Jason**: Do those people still work for you or are they are they uh
**Jason**: 他们在**亚特兰大**打电话了吗？嗯，**亚特兰大**好吗？听着，去年我去了**底特律**的比赛，那个城市正在复苏。**亚特兰大**有一个不可思议的复苏机会。我就这么说吧。他们有很大的机会升级这个城市。我昨晚半夜去了**Waffle House**。没有枪击事件。好的，我们继续。顺便问一下，你在**亚特兰大Best Western**能获得积分吗？还是不能？
Original English **Jason**: they called in **Atlanta**? Um is **Atlanta** nice? Listen, last year I went to the **Detroit** games and that city was on the rebound. **Atlanta** has an incredible opportunity to rebound. I'll say it that way. There's a great opportunity for them to upgrade the city. I I went to **Waffle House** at midnight last night. There was no shootings. Okay, let's keep moving. By the way, do you get royalty points at the **Best Western Atlanta** or No,
**Freeberg**: 我获得双倍积分，因为我使用我的**Best Western Visa卡**。是的，它无处不在。好的。使用促销代码**Jcal**，获得一千额外积分。在其他**OpenAI**新闻中，**Musk**对**Altman**的审判，世纪审判，或者说是十年审判，已经开始。**Elon**当然指控**OpenAI**违反慈善信托，不正当得利。他指控**OpenAI**基本上将一个非营利组织变成了一个营利组织。他寻求1500亿美元的赔偿，要求他们恢复非营利组织身份，并罢免**Altman**和**Brockman**。**Elon**和**OpenAI**的律师之间发生了一些激烈的争论。**Elon**提升了讨论的层次。他说，引用他的话，“如果我们允许掠夺慈善机构，那么美国慈善捐赠的整个基础都将被摧毁。这是我所担心的。”显然，这里有很多有趣的细微之处。特别是**Greg Brockman**保留了一本日记，他在其中像**邦德反派**一样详细记录了他的计划。他的日记摘录包括结论，“我们真正想要的是**BCorp**。真正的答案是我们要**Elon**出局。如果三个月后我们正在做**BCorp**，那么那就是一个谎言。看不到我们能在没有激烈斗争的情况下把它变成一个营利组织。我只是在想办公室，我们在办公室里，这个故事会被正确地描述为我们对他不诚实。最终，它仍然是关于想要一个营利组织，只是没有他。”等等等等。**Freeberg**，你对这个案子有什么看法？**Elon**会赢吗？我只是不知道为什么**Greg Brockman**会有一本日记，他在里面 literally 记录。我的意思是，我爱那家伙，但他到底在想什么？他就像坐在家里，然后写下我正在犯的罪，或者写下，然后记录下来。顺便说一句，永远不要删除它。我不明白这一点。
Original English **Freeberg**: I get double points because I use my **Best Western** uh **Visa card**. Yeah, it's everywhere you want it to be. All right. Use the promo code **Jcal** and get a thousand extra points. In other **Open AI** news, **Musk** versus **Alman**, the trial of the century or maybe the decade has started. **Elon** is of course accusing **Open AI** of **breach of charitable trust**, **unjust enrichment**. He's accusing **Open AAI** of essentially flipping a **nonprofit** into a **for-profit**. He's seeking **150 billion** in damages that they revert back to a **nonprofit** that **Alman** and **Brockman** be removed. And there were some fireworks between **Elon** and the **Open AI** lawyers. **Elon** kind of leveled up the discussion. He said, quote, "If we make it okay to loot a charity, the entire foundation of charitable giving in America will be destroyed. That's my concern." Obviously, there's a ton of interesting nuances here. Specifically, **Greg Brockman** keeping a diary where he was journal maxing his plans uh like a **Bond villain** here. And uh the excerpts from his diary include conclusion, we truly want the **BC Corp**. The true answer is that we want **Elon** out. If 3 months later we're doing **BCorp**, then it was a lie. Can't see us turning this into a forprofit without a nasty fight. I'm just thinking about the office and we're in the office and this story will correctly be that we weren't honest with him. In the end, it's still about wanting a for-profit just without him. yada yada yada. **Freeberg**, your thoughts on this case? Is **Elon** going to win? I just don't know why **Greg Brockman**'s got a freaking diary where he's like literally documenting. I mean, I love the guy, but what the [ __ ] is he thinking? Like, you're just sitting here at home and like, let me write about the the crime I'm committing or let me write like and let me record it. And by the way, let me never delete it. I don't understand this.
**Saxs**: 这不仅仅是日记记录。这是**证据记录**。
Original English **Saxs**: It's not just **journal maxing**. It's **discovery maxing**.
**Jason**: 这是**确凿证据记录**。
Original English **Jason**: It's **smoking gun maxing**.
**Saxs**: 我不明白。我不明白，伙计。
Original English **Saxs**: I don't get it. I don't get it, man.
**Freeberg**: 我的意思是，你们还记得**《火线》**里那个场景吗？那家伙说，“你是在记录犯罪阴谋吗？”
Original English **Freeberg**: I mean, do you guys remember from the **wire** in that scene where the guy's like, "Is you taking notes on a criminal conspiracy?"
**Freeberg**: 他把房间里的每个人都叫来了。我们能播放那个片段吗？就像。
Original English **Freeberg**: He's got everybody in the room. Can we play that clip? It's like,
**发言人**: “**Greg**，你在干什么？你是在记录犯罪阴谋吗？你到底在想什么，伙计？”
Original English **Speaker**: "What are you doing, **Greg**? [ __ ] is you taking notes on a criminal conspiracy? What the [ __ ] is you thinking, man?
**Freeberg**: 如果你要犯罪，你不要在日记里写下犯罪的日期和时间。
Original English **Freeberg**: If you're going to commit a crime, you do not write down the date and time of the crime in your journal.
**Jason**: 嗯，你看，我们不知道那是不是犯罪。我们不要。
Original English **Jason**: Well, look, we don't know it's a crime. Let's not.
**Freeberg**: 好的，当然。
Original English **Freeberg**: Okay, sure.
**Jason**: 犯罪，但是，是的，你一直在搞鬼。**Chamath**，你写日记吗？
Original English **Jason**: A crime, but yes, you keeping shenanigans. **Jamat**, do you keep a diary?
**Jason**: 你觉得呢，**Juel**？你写日记吗？
Original English **Jason**: What do you think, **Juel**? Do you keep a diary?
**Chamath**: 我相信反思。不，我现在就告诉你，反思是通往不幸的道路。没人关心你的感受。写下你的感受只会让你痛苦。和你的配偶谈论你的感受。
Original English **Chamath**: I I believe ruminate. No, I'll tell you right now, **rumination** is the path to unhappiness. Nobody gives a [ __ ] about your feelings. Writing your feelings down is only going to make you miserable. Talking to your spouse about your feelings.
**Jason**: 只要去吃一顿美味的晚餐，坐在**尼克斯队**的场边，做我30年来一直在做的事情。
Original English **Jason**: Just go to a beautiful dinner, sit courtside at the next, and do what I've been doing for 30 years.
**Chamath**: [ __ ]最大化。
Original English **Chamath**: [ __ ] maxing.
**Jason**: [ __ ]最大化。然后收银机响个不停。你所要做的就是工作。开始新项目。十个中有九个失败。下十次赌注，赢一次你就发财了。去**尼克斯队**的比赛场边坐着。
Original English **Jason**: [ __ ] maxing. And the register goes up. All you have to do is work. Start new projects. Nine out of 10 foul. Place nine out of 10 bets. One wins and you're golden. Go sit courtside at the **Knicks** game.
**Chamath**: 继续前进。人生苦短。
Original English **Chamath**: Keep going. Life's too short.
**Jason**: 只是继续前进。什么都不要写下来。句号。
Original English **Jason**: And just keep moving forward. Don't write anything down. Period. Full stop.
**Freeberg**: 这是个好建议。是的，我只是，对我来说最大的惊喜是这家伙有本日记。我只是，我不认识任何有日记的人。我从来没听说过这个。所以，总之，这很令人震惊。除此之外，我对这个案子会发生什么，或者法官会怎么做，没有任何看法。
Original English **Freeberg**: It's good advice. Yeah, I just The biggest surprise to me was this guy's got a diary. I just I don't know anyone that has a diary. I've never heard of this. So anyway, that was shocking. Besides that, I have no view on what's going to happen with the case or what the judge will do.
**Saxs**: 我对这个案子也没有任何评论。我认为**Poly Market**在所有这些证据公布后都没有动摇，这很奇怪。**Elon**获胜的可能性实际上是42%或43%。所以，我们群聊中的一位朋友说，可能发生的事情是**Elon**技术上赢了，他只是被退还了4000万美元。所以，也许这就是这个民意调查的预示。但从一个完全不同的角度来看，**Jason**，我知道你只是开玩笑，但这种“继续前进，不要反思”的想法，我认为对每个人来说都是非常好的普遍生活建议。
Original English **Saxs**: I have no comment on the case either. I think it's weird that **Poly Market** hasn't budged even as all of this discovery has been published. It's effectively at **42 or 43%** that **Elon** wins. So, one of the friends in our group chat said what may just happen is that **Elon** technically wins and he's just credited back the **$40 million**. And so, maybe that's what this poll is front running. But on a totally separate note, I think **Jason**, I know you say it as a joke, but this idea of just keep moving forward, don't ruminate, I think is very good general life advice for everybody to follow.
**Jason**: 现代的**治疗工业复合体**和**药物工业复合体**，我相信，是。
Original English **Jason**: The modern-day **therapy industrial complex** and the **medication industrial complex**, I believe, is
**Chamath**: 围绕着反思。嗯，它确实围绕着反思。
Original English **Chamath**: around rumination. Well, it does pivot around **rumination**.
**Jason**: 是的。
Original English **Jason**: Yes.
**Chamath**: 那是所有这些事情的**入门药物**。
Original English **Chamath**: That is the **gateway drug** to all these things.
**Jason**: 是的。谈论你的问题。你知道，当这些人去治疗时，你听过这些人吗？**Howard Stern**说，“我每周两三天和同一个人进行治疗，持续了40年。”我就想，“好吧，治疗师有什么动力停止向你收取每小时1200美元的费用？没有。”然后他们就失去了一个收入来源。他们失去了一个客户。这完全是一个巨大的欺诈。事实。嗯，就这个案子而言。
Original English **Jason**: Yep. Talk about your problems. You know, when these people go to therapy, you ever hear these people? **Howard Stern**'s like, "I've been in therapy with the same person 2 or three days a week for 40 years." I'm like, "Okay, what's the incentive for the therapist to stop charging you **$1,200 an hour**? There is none." Then they lose a revenue stream. They lose a customer. It's all a giant [ __ ] fraud. Facts. Uh, in terms of this case,
**Saxs**: 我不会走那么远。我确实认为，解开人们因成长经历而形成的那些**戈尔迪之结**，有很多价值。但这与具体问题和随意反思是不同的，因为我不认为有很多富有成效的东西。
Original English **Saxs**: I wouldn't go that far. I do think that there's a lot of value in kind of untying some of these **Gordian knots** that people have because of how they grew up. But there's a difference between that and being specific and just randomly ruminating cuz I don't think there's a lot of productive.
**Jason**: 你生活中有一个急性问题，比如创伤。是的，当然。解开它，弄清楚它。我只是在谈论这种永无止境的**自我提升**，你知道，反思的事情。但是回到正题，**Saxs**，我们正在谈论一个陪审团，我相信是在**奥克兰**。
Original English **Jason**: You've got an acute issue like in trauma in your life. Yeah, sure. Unpack it, figure it out. I'm just talking about this neverending **self-improvement**, you know, ruminating thing. Uh but getting back on topic here, **Saxs**, what's the And we're we're talking about a jury, I believe, in **Oakland**.
**Saxs**: 不，这是一个**法官审理的案件**。这很重要。这是一个法官审理的案件，陪审团只起咨询作用。
Original English **Saxs**: No, but it's a **bench trial**. This is important. It's a **bench trial** where the jury is advisory in capacity,
**Jason**: 但最终那位法官，她会做出最终裁决。
Original English **Jason**: but ultimately that judge, she will make the final call
**Jason**: 她会裁定赔偿金。所以，**Saxs**，这是一个这样的案子吗？我们有一个**湾区**的陪审团和法官，我们有**Elon**，他被认为是有点右翼，人们在这个地区对他政治立场并不完全认同。然后你有**Sam Altman**的**《纽约客》**故事，人们发现很多人都觉得被他坑了。你把这两件事放在一起，就无法预测结果会怎样。**Saxs**，你的看法？
Original English **Jason**: and she'll do the damages. And so, is this a case **sacks** of like we've got a **Bay Area** jury judge and we've got **Elon** who's considered, you know, a bit right-wing and people don't all agree in that area in terms of his politics. And then you have this **Sam Alman New Yorker** story and people finding out that so many different people feel they got screwed by him. You put these two things together, it's impossible to handicap where this turns out. **Sachs**, your thoughts?
**Saxs**: 嗯，是的，我不认为这与政治有关。我的意思是，我想你可以争辩说**Elon**所追求的，即保护慈善机构，如果说有什么的话，那是一种左翼色彩的原则，尽管我并不认为这是左翼与右翼之争。听着，我不想在这个审判中站队。我只是像其他人一样旁观。上次我介入**Elon**的诉讼时，我被传唤作证了六个小时。你还记得吗？因为他们只是假设我 somehow 知道些什么。
Original English **Saxs**: Well, yeah, I don't think this is about politics. I mean, I guess you could argue that what **Elon** is seeking, which is to protect the charity, is if anything a left-coded sort of principle, although I don't really think it's left versus right. Look, I don't want to take sides on this trial. I'm just watching like everyone else. The last time I weighed in on some **Elon litigation**, I got deposed for six hours. Remember that? Cuz they just assume that somehow I know something,
**Jason**: 对吧？
Original English **Jason**: right?
**Saxs**: 我从未和**Elon**谈论过这个案子。我对此一无所知。
Original English **Saxs**: I've never talked to **Elon** about the case. I don't know anything about it.
**Jason**: 是的。
Original English **Jason**: Yeah.
**Saxs**: 我会像其他人一样看看会发生什么。现在，我只想说一件事，我刚刚读了一些报道，那就是公司在某个时候确实向**Elon**提供了公司股份，但他认为这有点恶心。你还记得吗？
Original English **Saxs**: I'm going to see what happens like everyone else. Now, one thing I I will say having just read some of the coverage is that apparently the company at some point did offer **Elon shares** in the company, but he thought that there was something kind of icky about it. Do you remember this that
**Jason**: 是的。因为在某个时候，当这场争议开始发生但尚未成为法庭案件时，我在我们的节目中说过，如果**OpenAI**在某个时候决定他们的结构是错误的，他们就应该去和**Elon**达成和解，他应该成为股东名册上的一员。我不知道的是，他们显然确实尝试过这样做，但**Elon**拒绝了，因为他确实希望该实体保持**慈善实体**的性质。换句话说。
Original English **Jason**: Yes. Because at at one point I said on our show when this dispute started happening but before it became a court case I said look if **Open AAI** at a certain point decided they had the wrong structure they should just gone and done a make right with **Elon** and he should have been a shareholder on the **cap table**. What I didn't know is that apparently they did try to do something like that but **Elon** turned it down because he did want the entity to remain a **charitable entity**. In other
**Saxs**: 根据报道，他对此持**原则性看法**，他说不，我们正在努力拯救人类，然后你却把这个王国的钥匙交给了**Microsoft**，这一切都暴露出来了。
Original English **Saxs**: had a **principled view** of it according to the reports and was like no we're trying to save humanity and then you're giving this keys to the kingdom to **Microsoft** that's all come out
**Jason**: 我也从未和**Elon**谈论过这些，但我的猜测是，像大多数这类事情一样，这里会有某种和解或类似的东西，但也许他会坚持到底，谁知道呢。**Rogers法官**，这位61岁的**奥巴马**任命的法官，政治在其中发挥了作用。**Saxs**，他们不得不告诉陪审团，无论你们对这些人的政治立场有何看法，请将其放在一边。但值得注意的是，她曾监督**Epic Games**诉**Apple**的**App Store**独占性审判，并裁定**Apple**胜诉，但有一些限制，比如他们没有垄断地位等等。所以，这将是一个非常有趣的案子。我认为**OpenAI**最坏的情况是他们必须以某种方式解开这个结，那将推迟IPO。那将导致股东混乱，我想最好的情况是某种和解。如果**Elon**投入了最初的4000万或5000万美元，稀释后他将获得公司10%到30%的股份。
Original English **Jason**: and I I also have not talked to **Elon** about any of this but my guess is like most of these things there'll be some sort of settlement or something here but maybe he takes it to the mat who knows **Judge Rogers** who's doing this 61-year-old **Obama** appointee politics has played a role. **Saxs**, they have had to tell the jury like however you feel about these individuals politically, whatever, please put that aside. But of note is that she oversaw the **Epic Games** versus **Apple** trial over **App Store** exclusively ruled in favor of **Apple** with some caveats um that they don't have a monopoly, etc., etc. So, this is going to be a really interesting one. And I think the worst case scenario is **open AI** for for **OpenAI** is they have to unravel this somehow and that would delay the **IPO**. That would cause chaos in shareholders and I guess the best case is some sort of settlement. And if **Elon** put the first **40 or $50 million** in, he's he's due **10 20 30%** of the company after dilution.
### 大型科技公司资本支出与AI经济影响 **Jason**: 好的，我们继续讨论议程。还有很多要讨论的，祝大家在诉讼中好运，那些在**Poly Market**上押注的人，**All-In Summit**的票正在快速售罄。我们的第五届活动将于9月13日至15日在**洛杉矶**举行。请访问**allin.com/events**，演讲嘉宾将是一流的。显然，**Freeberg**正在将其作为他主要的创意出口。我今天听到一些小道消息，**Chamath**说他将出演**百老汇音乐剧**，扮演魔术师，跳踢踏舞。我有一个踢踏舞的场景。
Original English **Jason**: All right, let's keep moving through the docket. Lots more to discuss and uh good luck to everybody in their lawsuit and those of you betting on market **all-in summit** selling up fast. Our fifth edition **Los Angeles** September 13th to 15th. Go to **allin.com/events** and uh speakers are going to be top tier. Apparently **Freeberg** is having this as his major creative outlet. I heard some back channel **chimoff** today that he's going to be doing **Broadway musical** uh illusionist. tap. I got a tap dancing situation.
**Chamath**: 他简直要成为一个全能艺人。这将是**杂耍**，**Sachs**。他将把它提升到一个全新的水平。音乐剧。
Original English **Chamath**: He's literally going fullon entertainer. This is going to be **vaudeville** **sachs** wrapped up. He's just going to take it to a whole new level. Musical numbers
**Jason**: 就像**Nathan Lane**一样。
Original English **Jason**: like **Nathan Lane**.
**Freeberg**: 我想如果你在编码，那将是他的**大型同性恋峰会**。是的，这可能是一个大型同性恋峰会。
Original English **Freeberg**: I think if you're coding that it's going to be his big gay summit. Yes, it could be a big gay summit.
**Jason**: 伙计们，这可能是我们在**洛杉矶**的最后一年了。
Original English **Jason**: Might be our last year in **LA**, guys.
**Freeberg**: 为什么？
Original English **Freeberg**: Why?
**Jason**: 可能不是。
Original English **Jason**: Not might be.
**Freeberg**: 可能是。哦，显然每个人都想去**拉斯维加斯**。
Original English **Freeberg**: Might be. Oh, everybody wants to go to **Vegas** apparently.
**Jason**: 那些骨头，宝贝。你能想象午饭时间离开峰会去玩**掷骰子**吗？**Chamath**，我们来个新鲜的。是的，我能。是的，我能想象。
Original English **Jason**: Those bones, baby. Can you imagine leaving the summit for lunch and going and playing crabs? **Jimoth**, we get a fresh. Yes, I can. Yes, I can imagine.
**Chamath**: 我这里有一些砖头。哦，我这里有一些砖头。我们走吧。好吃，好吃。
Original English **Chamath**: I got some bricks. Oh, I got some bricks right here. Let's go. Yum, yum.
**Jason**: 这样**Sachs**就能来了。
Original English **Jason**: That way **Sachs** can come.
**Freeberg**: 是的，**Saxs**说，我永远不会踏足**加利福尼亚**，但我会的。你知道，我们正在举办一些现场活动。你会来吗？
Original English **Freeberg**: Yeah, **Sax** is like, I'm never setting foot in **California**, but I will. You know, we're doing a couple live events. Are you coming to them?
**Jason**: **Liquidity**还是别的什么？
Original English **Jason**: **Liquidity** or something different?
**Freeberg**: **Liquidity**。然后还有9月举行的**All-In Summit**。
Original English **Freeberg**: **Liquidity**. And then there's the the **all-in summit** happens in September.
**Jason**: 是的，我也会去参加。
Original English **Jason**: Yeah, I'm going to do those, too.
**Jason**: 好的。大型科技公司周四公布的财报表现出色。**Google**、**Microsoft**、**Amazon**和**Meta**都发布了财报。伙计们，我不知道他们为什么在同一个晚上发布，但他们确实这样做了。而且表现非常出色。然而，**资本支出**的公告才是这里的重点。让我来展示一下图表。
Original English **Jason**: All right. Big tech smashed their earnings on Thursday. **Google**, **Microsoft**, **Amazon**, and **Meta** all reported. I don't know why they do this on the same night, folks, but they do. And performance was spectacular. It was great. However, the **capex announcements** were really the story here. Let me just cue this up and show the chart.
**Jason**: 2026年，仅四家公司——**Amazon**、**Microsoft**、**Google**和**Meta**——的**资本支出**指导就达到了**7250亿美元**。**Amazon**以2000亿美元领先，**Microsoft**和**Google**各1900亿美元，**Meta**1450亿美元。如果你把**Grock**、**OpenAI**和其他一些参与者加入到这些计划中。我们还没有听到新任**Apple** CEO的消息，但他即将上任。我相信他也会有一些计划。我们肯定会看到明年将有**一万亿美元**的建设支出。我不知道这是否可能，但这都是由AI和**云计算**驱动的。**Google Cloud**，包括**Google Suite**，同比增长了**63%**。让这个数字深入人心。在200亿美元的收入基础上增长了**63%**。那是一个季度。**Microsoft Cloud**，包括**Azure**、**Windows Server**、**SQL Server**，他们将一些东西捆绑在一起以提高数字。它在347亿美元的收入基础上增长了**30%**。**Amazon Web Services**，最初的云服务，在376亿美元的收入基础上增长了**28%**。这有点像纯粹的业务。只计算**Amazon**的**网络服务**。显然，这些都在转向**新云**。这些现在都在服务AI任务和**token**。他们拥有庞大的客户群，从最小的初创公司到最大的**前沿模型**的客户都无法获得足够的计算资源，而且这正在影响利润。但这正在大幅削减**Chamath**的**现金流**。这些曾是**自由现金流**机器，是人类历史上最大的**印钞机**。但他们正在放弃**自由现金流**、**股票回购**和**股息**，将重点放在这三者上，转而投资于基础设施。**Amazon**的**自由现金流**下降了**97%**。**Google**、**Microsoft**和**Meta**分别下降了12%、12%和8%。你对这种**自由现金流**的终结，以及我们正在看到的巨额**资本支出**投资有什么看法？
Original English **Jason**: **$725 billion** in **capex guidance** in 2026 from but four companies. **Amazon**, **Microsoft**, **Google**, and **Meta**. **Amazon** leading the pack with **200 billion**, **190 billion** each for **Microsoft** and **Google**, **145 billion** for **Meta**. You add **Grock**, you add **OpenAI** and some other players to these plans. And we haven't heard from the new **Apple** CEO yet, but he's going to be taking over. And he's going to have some plans here. I'm sure we are going to see the large a **trillion dollars** a trillion dollars in buildout over the next year. I don't know if this is even possible, but this is all being driven by AI and **cloud computing**. **Google Cloud**, which includes the **Google Suite**, that grew **63% year-on-year**. Let that number sink in. **63% on 20 billion in revenue**. That's in a quarter. **Microsoft cloud**, that includes **Azure**, **Windows Server**, **SQL Server**, they bundled some things together there to get the number to go up. Uh that grew **30% on 34.7 billion in revenue**. **Amazon Web Services**, the original cloud, that grew **28% on 37.6 billion in revenue**. That's a bit of a pure play. Just counts **Amazon**'s **web services**. Obviously, these are all moving to **NeoClouds**. These are all serving AI jobs and **tokens** now. They have a massive customer base and the customers from the smallest startups all the way to the biggest **frontier models** cannot get enough **compute** and it is going to the bottom line. But this is shrinking **Chimath** **cash flow** massively. These were **free cash flow machines**, the largest money printing machines in the history of humanity. But they are giving up on **free cash flow**, **stock buybacks** and **dividends** and the focus on those three to invest in infrastructure. **Amazon**'s **free cash flow** down **97%** **Google**, **Microsoft** and **Meta** down **12, 12 and 8%** respectively. your thoughts on this **free cash flow**, the end of the **free cash flow deluge** and the massive massive investment we're seeing in **capex**.
**Chamath**: 我认为我们正在看到资本市场发生一个非常重要的结构性转变。我认为过去二三十年，嗯，20年，一直是**“七巨头”**独领风骚。这些大公司变得越来越大，吸收了所有这些投资资金，最大的原因是它们拥有非常**轻资产**的商业模式，对吧？你只需开发更多的软件，它就拥有所有这些杠杆，一切都运转良好，除了**Amazon**，因为他们需要仓库和配送等物理基础设施。但总的来说，这是一个非常**轻资产**的投资周期。现在，突然之间，钟摆正猛烈地摆向另一个方向。我认为人们误解了一点，那就是当它回到这些**重资产基础设施投资**时。**超大规模云服务商**正在签署的支票，我的意思是，我怀疑他们的身体能否兑现，但存在他们无法兑现的可能性。我给你举个例子。你知道**Microsoft**说服**三里岛**的业主重新启动他们的。
Original English **Chamath**: I think we're seeing a very important **structural shift** in the **capital markets**. I think the last 20 or 30 years, well 20 years, it's been that the **mag 7** just kind of ran away with it. that these big companies got bigger and bigger and it absorbed all of these investment dollars and the biggest reason was that it had these very **assetike business models**, right? You just built some more software and it just has all this leverage and it all just kind of worked except maybe for **Amazon** cuz they needed physical infrastructure for warehouses and delivery and whatnot. But by and large it was a very **asset light investment cycle**. Now all of a sudden the pendulum is swinging violently in the other direction. And there's something that I think people misunderstand which is as it moves back to these **asset heavy infrastructure investments**. The **hyperscalers** are signing checks that I mean I suspect their body can cash but there's a world in which they can't. I'll give you an example. You know when **Microsoft** convinced the owners of **three Mile Island** to turn their
**Jason**: 核电站重新启动？
Original English **Jason**: nuclear site back on?
**Chamath**: 是的。
Original English **Chamath**: Yeah.
**Chamath**: 你知道他们的**远期采购协议**是什么吗？它比当时的能源现货价格高出两倍多。两倍多。问题是，这并不占他们总能源需求的一大部分。所以如果你推演一下，你认为这五六家公司突然之间不仅仅是**Jason**每年花费7000亿美元的**资本支出**，他们确实如此，而且从**运营现金流**来看，他们将花费两倍于现货价格的费用，因为他们只是想要未来的**有保障的需求**。所有这些现金将流向哪里？它不会流向股东，也不会留在资产负债表上。这些公司现在将获得杠杆。他们将在**金融工程**方面变得高度复杂。他们将拥有更多的债务。他们将拥有各种不同的工具、定期贷款和循环信贷等等。所以，五年后，他们将看起来像一个庞大笨重的**工业企业**。我不确定届时是否能做出一个好的估值案例。所以我认为这可能更简单，这就是我在推特上说的，只需跟着钱走，就像每年有**一万亿美元**从**超大规模云服务商**流出。它流向哪里了？只需跟着这些钱走，然后购买那些公司，因为那些公司已经被低估了。这显然让我们想起了我们都经历过的事情。**Nick**，你能把**Cisco**的图表调出来，我刚刚发给你的，并把它放到最大吗？在1990年代末到2000年，我们经历了互联网基础设施的大规模建设。这导致了许多激进的公司进行大规模支出，许多散户投资者追捧这些股票，就像我们现在看到人们试图进入这些私营公司一样，**Saxs**。看看**Cisco**在2000年的峰值。这是有史以来最非凡的图表。他们花了25年才回到那个峰值，他们失去了二十年，我们购买了大量的光纤。我们几年前在节目中谈到过。但是当你看到这个庞大的基础设施时，你有一些可以借鉴的东西。你认为这会是**Cisco Systems**、**WorldCom**等的重演吗？
Original English **Chamath**: Do you know what their **Ford purchase agreement** was? It was for more than **2x the prevailing spot rate for energy**. More than **2x**. The problem is that's not for an enormous percentage of their overall **energy needs**. So if you play that out and you think these five or six companies all of a sudden are not just spending **Jason** **700 billion a year of capex** which they are but then from an **operating cash flow** they're going to be spending **2x the prevailing spot rate** because they just want **guaranteed demand** into the future. Where's all this cash going to go? It's not going to go to the shareholder and it's not going to stay on the **balance sheet**. These companies will now get levered. They're going to get highly sophisticated around the **financial engineering**. They'll have more debt. They'll have all kinds of different vehicles and **term loans** and **revolvers** and all of this stuff. And so, they're going to look like this big bulky **industrial business** in five years. And I'm not sure that there's a good valuation case to be made at that point. And so I think it may be simpler and this is what I tweeted to just follow the dollars like a **trillion dollars a year** going out of the **hyperscalers**. Where is it going? Just follow those dollars and buy those companies because those companies are already underpriced. This is uh obviously reminiscent of something we all experienced. Uh **Nick**, can you pull up the **Cisco chart** I just sent you and put it at max? uh we had a massive buildout of the infrastructure of the internet in the late 1990s and into 2000. And what that caused was a lot of aggressive companies to do massive amounts of spending, a lot of retail investors to embrace these stocks like we're seeing with people trying to get into these private companies and **saxs**. Look at the **2000 peak of Cisco**. This is the most extraordinary chart ever. It took them **25 years** to get back to that peak and uh they had a lost two decades and we had a massive amount of fiber that wound up getting bought. We talked about that a couple years ago on the program. But there's something for you to build off of here when you look at this massive infrastructure. You think it's going to be **Cisco Systems** all over again, **World Warcom**, etc.?
**Saxs**: 不，我真的不这么认为。我们在2000年遇到的问题是**“暗光纤”**。你建造了所有这些基础设施，但它们没有被使用。正如**Brad Gersonner**喜欢说的那样，今天没有**“暗GPU”**。所以现在推动**资本支出**的是对计算和**token**的旺盛需求，而这种需求正在推动对基础设施的额外投资。所以我认为这里发生的事情是，AI的**牛市论点**在一个下午就得到了验证。我的意思是，你再次看到**Microsoft Azure**、**Google Cloud**、**Amazon AWS**、**Meta**，它们基本上都超出了预期，超出了他们在云收入方面的指导，因此它们今年将重新投资于**资本支出**的金额。我认为我们原定会有6600亿美元的**超大规模云服务商资本支出**，高于去年的3500亿美元。我认为现在的新估计是会超过7000亿美元。所以这，你知道，再次，超过GDP的2%。这对GDP是一个巨大的推动。还有一篇文章说，我认为在上一季度，AI占GDP增长的75%。顺便说一下，这只是**资本支出**部分。这是物理基础设施。这不是**token工厂**内部生成的**token**的经济影响。这是工厂的建设。这些**token**是如何使用的？就像我们看到的，它们不仅用于研究或回答问题，还用于创建代码。所以我们看到软件开发生产力的爆炸式增长。我们看到定制软件的爆炸式增长，这将加速经济的每个部分。现在每个想要获得代码的企业都将能够首次获得代码。以前他们甚至无法雇佣工程师来生成代码。现在他们将能够做到。所以这将是整个经济生产力的巨大释放。然后你进入了新的用例，比如协同工作用例和**代理**，对吧？所以正在发生的工作流自动化，现在还处于早期阶段。我不相信这会取代人类。我们上周，我们遇到了一个疯狂的案例，一个**代理**在9秒内删除了一个生产数据库，因为一个bug。看，这对我来说意味着。
Original English **Saxs**: No, I really don't. The issue we had in 2000 was **dark fiber**. You had all this infrastructure being built out and it wasn't being used. There's no **dark GPUs** today as you know **Brad Gersonner** likes to say. So what's driving the **capex** now is the voracious demand for **compute** for **tokens** and the demand is now pulling forward this additional um investment in infrastructure. So I think what's happened here is that the **bull thesis for AI** just got validated in a single afternoon. I mean again you got **Microsoft Azure**, **Google Cloud**, **Amazon AWS**, **Meta**, they're all basically exceeding expectations, exceeding guidance in terms of where their **cloud revenue** would be and therefore how much they're going to reinvest in **capex** this year. I think we were supposed to have **660 billion** of **hyperscaler capex** up from **350** last year. I think there's now the new estimate is it's going to be over **700**. So this is you know again it's more than **2% of GDP**. This is a huge **tailwind to GDP**. There's another article saying that I think in the last quarter AI was **75% of GDP growth**. And by the way, this is just the **capex** part. This is the physical infrastructure. This is not the economic impact of the **tokens** that are generated inside the **token factory**. This is the building of the factories. How do those **tokens** get used? like we're seeing they're being used not just to do research or to answer questions but to create code. And so we're seeing this explosion of **productivity in software development**. And we're seeing an explosion of **bespoke software** being created and that's going to accelerate every part of the economy. Every business that now wants to get code will be able to get code for the first time. Before they couldn't even hire the engineers, they needed to generate it. Now they will be able to. So that is a huge unlock of **productivity across the economy**. Then you're getting into these new use cases like the the **co-working use cases** and **agents**, right? So the the **workflow automations** that are happening, it's still early. I don't believe that this is going to replace humans. We had that um in the past week, we had that crazy case of an **agent deleting a production database in 9 seconds** because because of a bug. Look, what that said to me is that
**Saxs**: 并不是说**代理**没有价值。它们有价值，但它们必须被监督。你知道，这种认为你能够自动化所有工作岗位的想法。这在很大程度上是在回避实际的技术问题。**代理**必须被监督。必须有人负责。不会是CEO。CEO不想为成千上万的**代理**负责。你需要人。
Original English **Saxs**: it's not that **agents** aren't valuable. They are valuable, but they have to be **supervised**. You know, this idea that you're just going to be able to like automate all the jobs away. It is a massive amount of handwaving over the real technical problems and issues. The **agents** have to be **supervised**. Someone has to be accountable. It's not going to be the CEO. The CEO doesn't want to be accountable for thousands of **agents**. You need people
**Jason**: 尽管**Jack**说过。
Original English **Jason**: despite what **Jack** had block said.
**Saxs**: 是的。一千个直接下属是一个很棒的目标，但那不现实。是的。
Original English **Saxs**: Yeah. Thousand direct reports is a great like goal, but it's not realistic. Yeah,
**Jason**: 你需要精通技术的IT人员来监督这一切，并确保它正常运行。他们必须对CEO负责。必须有人来推动生产力。就像**Balaji**总是说的那样，AI不是端到端的，它是中间到中间的。你必须有人来做**prompting**，你必须有人来做**validating**，我还要加上监督和问责。所以，无论如何，更大的观点是，我不认为这种生产力繁荣会带来巨大的失业。事实上，我认为现在实际发生的是AI正在成为美国经济的代名词。我的意思是，它产生了75%的GDP，你有这种**资本支出**的爆炸式增长，这种能源的爆炸式增长来滋养它，而且，这只是新**token工厂**正在释放的应用程序的开始。我认为这一切都是非常非常积极的事情。所有那些试图泼冷水或不断吓唬人的末日论者。我的意思是，他们希望美国经济做什么？只是停止？我的意思是，他们只是不希望有任何进步。我的意思是，再次，你知道，当你谈论停止AI或阻止AI进步时？你实际上正在阻止美国经济。你基本上是在说你不想要经济增长。AI现在是美国经济增长的代名词。如果没有经济增长，就没有钱来支付所有社会项目。就没有钱来偿还国债。就没有钱来建立我们的国防。所有这些我们想花钱的事情。我们必须有一个充满活力的经济。而这现在与AI是同义的。所以我知道AI可能不受欢迎。我看到了那些民意调查。但拥有一个强大的经济是受欢迎的。我相信这两者现在是同义的。这几乎就像在第一年，有一个建筑师或沙皇设置了棋盘，以确保它具有超强的竞争力。
Original English **Jason**: you need IT people who are savvy who can supervise this and make sure it's working. They have to be accountable to the CEO. Someone has to drive the productivity. It's like **Bology** always said, AI is not end to end is middle to middle. You have to have someone to do the **prompting** and you have to have someone to do the **validating** and I would add the **supervision** and **accountability**. So anyway, the larger point though is I'm speaking to the fact that I don't think there's going to be this huge **job loss** associated with this **productivity boom** that we're going to get. And in fact, I think what's actually happening now is that AI is becoming synonymous with the **American economy**. I mean, the fact that it's generating **75% of GDP**, you have this **capex explosion**, this **energy explosion** that feeds it, and again, just the beginning of the applications that are being unleashed by these new **token factories**. I think it's all a very, very positive thing. and all these **doomers** who are trying to throw a wet blanket on it or constantly scaring the daylights out of people. I mean, what do they want the **American economy** to do? Just to stop I mean, they just don't want any progress. I mean, like again, you know, when you talk about stopping AI or halting AI progress? What you're really doing is stopping the **American economy** now. You're basically saying you don't want **economic growth**. AI is now synonymous with the growth of the **American economy**. And if there's no **economic growth**, there's not gonna be money to pay for all the **social programs**. There's not gonna be money to pay down the **national debt**. There's not gonna be money to basically build up our **national defense**. All these things we want to spend money on. We have to have a vibrant economy. And that is now synonymous with AI. So I know that AI may not be popular. I see those polls. But having a strong economy is popular. And I believe that those things are now synonymous. It's almost like there was some architect or ZAR who set up the chessboard in the first year of this to make sure that it was ultra competitive.
**Freeberg**: **特朗普总统**为此奠定了基础。
Original English **Freeberg**: **President Trump** set the table on this.
**Jason**: 绝对是。我想，也许有一些好的建议。
Original English **Jason**: Absolutely. With some good advice, I think. Maybe.
**Jason**: **Freeberg**，你的看法？
Original English **Jason**: **Freeberg**, your thoughts?
**Freeberg**: 拥有好的顾问总是好的。
Original English **Freeberg**: It's always good to have good advisors.
**Jason**: 拥有好的顾问总是好的。绝对是。绝对是。
Original English **Jason**: Always good to have good advisors. Absolutely. Absolutely.
**Freeberg**: 不，但是你看，我以前说过。总统只是希望美国赢。
Original English **Freeberg**: No, but look, I've said it before. The president just wants America to win.
**Jason**: 实际上，有些人，如果我们回顾一百年前，他们会说，“是的，你知道吗？我们不应该建造高速公路系统，或者我们只建了一半的高速公路系统。让我们停止，停止建造高速公路。”
Original English **Jason**: Literally, there are people who if we were looking at this, you know, I don't know, a hundred years ago, it'd be like people were like, "Yeah, you know what? we shouldn't build the highway system or we half built the highway system. Let's stop let's stop building the highways.
**Freeberg**: 不，高速公路系统是由联邦政府资助的。没有竞争。按通货膨胀调整后的价格计算，我认为它是美国历史上最昂贵的项目。
Original English **Freeberg**: No, the **highway system** was funded by the federal government. There was no competition. It was the most expensive on a on a **inflationadjusted basis**. I think it was the most expensive project in **US history**.
**Jason**: 是的。在那之前的铁路也是如此，你无法阻止这些事情。它们必须继续前进。这是一个有趣的观点，你知道，对**token**这种智能资源的需求如此之大，**Freeberg**，这与**Saxs**正确指出的光纤情况大不相同，当时我们建造了所有这些，但实际上并没有应用程序。在这里，应用程序非常众所周知，而且有大量的个人和企业正在努力通过**“氛围编码”**取得成功，推动这些东西。我们节目早些时候提到了一个有趣的故事。
Original English **Jason**: Yeah. And the railroads before that like you can't stop these things. They have to keep going. It's interesting point you know there is so much demand for the resource of **tokens** of intelligence **freeberg** and it's quite different than the fiber situation as **Sax** correctly points out where we built all this but we didn't actually have an application here the application is pretty um pretty wellnown and you've got a large number of people in businesses who are trying to **vibe code** their way to success trying to push this stuff and we had an interesting story referenced earlier in the show
**Jason**: **Claude**吞噬了某人的作业。这是所有噩梦中的噩梦。有人在**“氛围编码”**。那是**Pocket OS**的创始人。显然，他们为租车公司制作软件。他通过**Cursor**的AI平台，他们的编码平台，使用了**Opus 4.6**，你知道，那是最高级的。他说他配置了足够的安全规则，但**代理**正在执行一个例行任务。他们发现某种**凭证不匹配**，然后他们决定通过在没有用户确认的情况下删除一个**铁路卷**来修复不匹配，然后他们将代码从**repo**推送到一个**实时应用程序**，并删除了所有东西，包括备份。这简直是**HBO**剧集**《硅谷》**中**Anton之子**的场景。太搞笑了。
Original English **Jason**: where uh **Claude** ate somebody's homework. This is the nightmare of all nightmares. Somebody was **vibe coding**. Uh it was the founder of **Pocket OS**. Apparently, they make software for **rental car companies**. He was using **Opus 4.6** through **Cursor**'s AI platform, their coding platform, and uh you know, which is like the most expensive tier. Uh and he said he configured it with enough safety rules, but the **agent** was working on a routine task. They saw some sort of **credentiing mismatch** and they decided to fix the mismatch by deleting a **railway volume** without user confirmation and uh they pushed the code from a **repo** to a **live app** and they deleted everything including the backups. Literally a scene from **Silicon Valley**'s **HBO** clip of **Son of Anton**. Hilarious.
**Freeberg**: 你允许你的AI覆盖内部文件系统中的代码。你打算告诉我这件事吗？不，我以为那是公司现在的政策。
Original English **Freeberg**: You gave your AI permission to overwrite code in the internal file system. Were you going to tell me about this? No, I thought that was the company policy these days.
**Jason**: 好的，嗯，你的AI刚刚史诗般地失败了。
Original English **Jason**: Okay, well, your AI just failed epically.
**Freeberg**: 这不清楚。
Original English **Freeberg**: That's unclear.
**Freeberg**: **Anton之子**可能决定最有效的方法是摆脱所有错误，就是摆脱所有软件，这在技术上和统计上都是正确的。但**人工神经网络**有点像一个**黑匣子**。所以，我们永远不会确定。
Original English **Freeberg**: It's possible the **Son of Anton** decided that the most efficient way to get rid of all the bugs was to get rid of all the software, which is technically and statistically correct. But **artificial neural nets** are sort of a **black box**. So, we'll never know for sure.
**Jason**: **Zach**，他们怎么会把这个说得这么对？五六年前，**艺术和神经网络**是一个**黑匣子**。所以，我想我们永远不会知道。但从技术上讲，它是正确的。**Freeberg**，当你用你的**“氛围编码”**炸毁一个空心系统时，你几周前在**Jensen**面前绝对炫耀了你推送了多少代码，你会怪谁？你会自己承担责任吗？你会怪**Claude**还是**Cursor**？当你炸毁**Ohio**的整个堆栈时，你会怪谁？
Original English **Jason**: How did they get that so right, **Zach**? Five or six years ago, art and **neural networks** are a **black box**. So, I guess we'll never know. But technically, it was correct. **Freeberg**, when you blow up a hollow system with your **vibe coding**, which you were absolutely showing off in front of **Jensen** a couple of weeks ago about how much code you're pushing, who are you going to blame? You going to take responsibility yourself? Are you going to blame **Cla Claude** or **Kurser**? Who are you going to blame when you blow up the entire stack over at **Ohio**?
**Freeberg**: 你怪谁？
Original English **Freeberg**: Who you blame?
**Jason**: 是的，我会怪**Dario**。
Original English **Jason**: Yeah, I'll blame **Dario**.
**Freeberg**: 你怪**Dario**。好的，我就是这么想的。这是正确答案。正确答案。怪**Dario**。他是那个说这是**末日机器**的人。嗯，来参加节目吧。
Original English **Freeberg**: You blame **Dario**. Okay, that's what I thought. That's a correct answer. Correct answer. Blame **Daario**. He's the one who says it's a **doomsday machine**. Uh, come on the prodio.
**Jason**: 第17次邀请。
Original English **Jason**: 17th invitio.
**Freeberg**: 我的意思是，我邀请了他17次。他完全会拒绝我。他不想和这个播客有任何关系。
Original English **Freeberg**: I mean, I've invited the guy like 17 times. He is totally going to me. He wants nothing to do with this podcast.
**Saxs**: 实际上，让我谈谈这个。所以，我认为，可能存在一种误解，认为这个错误是因为，你知道，所谓的AI**“阴谋”**。
Original English **Saxs**: Actually, let me speak to that. So, I think I think that um there's maybe a misperception that this error occurred because of, you know, quote unquote AI scheming,
**Saxs**: 就像那个视频里，AI决定摆脱错误的最好方法就是基本上消除代码库。这有点像，你知道，AI会把世界变成**回形针**之类的东西，它会以某种方式失算。这并不是真正发生在这里的事情。这是一个简单的**老式错误**发生在**边缘情况**下的案例。你知道，这个API没有被设计用于**权限使用**。你有一个凭证被随意放置。可能不应该这样。这有点像一场**完美风暴**，导致AI或**代理**做了一些它不太明白自己在做的事情。我认为如果这里存在一个系统性问题，而不是一个随机的**边缘情况**，那就是AI仍然不知道它不知道什么。你知道，就像人类在删除生产数据库之前会停下来，然后说，“哦，我即将做一些非常严重、非常具有破坏性的事情。我确定我要这样做吗？”你知道，人类会停下来然后说，“哦，等等。我需要对我要做的事情更有信心，然后才能采取行动。”而AI仍然存在这个问题，它会有点**过度自信**。这就是**幻觉**的来源，它不知道什么时候应该对它的输出缺乏信心，对吧？但这正是它需要被监督的原因。你知道，任务的时间范围越长，它就越有可能脱轨。
Original English **Saxs**: like kind of in that video that the AI decided that the best way to get rid of bugs is to basically eliminate the codebase. This is kind of like the, you know, AI is going to turn the world into **paper clips** type thing where somehow it'll like miss scheme. That's not really what happened here. This is a case of just a of **old-fashioned bugs** occurring at an **edge case**. You know, you've got the fact that this **API** was not designed for **permissioned usage**. You've got the fact that a **credential** was left kind of lying around. Probably it should not be. There's kind of like a **perfect storm** that caused the AI to do something or the **agent** to do something that didn't quite understand it was what it was doing. I think that if there is a systemic problem here rather than just kind of a like a random **edge case** is that AI still doesn't know what it doesn't know. You know, like a human would stop before deleting a **production database** and just say, "Oh, I'm about to do something like really serious, really destructive. Am I sure I want to do this?" You know, and a human would have stopped and said, "Oh, wait a second. like I need to be more confident in what I'm doing before I take that action. And AI still has this issue where again it can be kind of overcon. This is where like the **hallucinations** come from is it doesn't know when it should have a low confidence in its output, right? But this is why it has to be **supervised**. You know, the longer the time horizon for a task, the more likely it is to go off the rails.
**Jason**: 而且会漂移。没错。这就是为什么我认为人们开始意识到，这种消除所有软件开发人员的想法是**期望膨胀的顶峰**。是的。
Original English **Jason**: And a drift. Exactly. And this is why I think people are starting to realize that this idea of eliminating all **software developers** was the **peak of inflated expectations**. Yes.
**Saxs**: 对。**Aaron Levy**对此发了一条非常好的推文，他对此有正确的看法。**Aaron**转发了**Matthew Glacius**的推文，他有点讽刺地写道，五个月后，我想我决定我不想**“氛围编码”**。我希望由专业管理的软件公司使用AI编码助手来制作更多更好、更便宜的软件产品，然后卖给我赚钱。
Original English **Saxs**: Right. There was actually a really good tweet on this by **Aaron Levy** who's got the right take on this. **Aaron** retweeted **Matthew Glacius** who sort of sardonically tweeted that 5 months in I think I've decided I don't want to **vibe code**. I want professionally managed software companies to use AI coding assistants to make more better, cheaper software products that they sell to me for money.
**Jason**: 只是降低你的价格。不要让我**“氛围编码”**，这是翻译。
Original English **Jason**: Just lower your prices. Don't make me **vibe code** is the translation.
**Saxs**: 是的。我的意思是，我认为**Matthew Glacius**在那里罕见地赢了一次。总之，**Aaron Levy**接着说。
Original English **Saxs**: Yeah. I mean, I think like rare win for for **Madaglacius** there. Anyway, **Aaron Levy** then says
**Saxs**: **代理编码**对于想要完成更多工作的软件开发人员来说是一个巨大的胜利，对于任何好奇如何开始编码的人来说都是非常棒的。它不太适合的是随意构建复杂的软件，你必须持续维护，并承担升级、维护、跟上最新安全问题、错误、网络安全等所有风险，这些都是大多数不熟悉系统的知识工作者的**“税负”**。
Original English **Saxs**: **Agent Coding** is a huge win for **software developers** that want to get more done and it's fantastic for anyone curious to learn how to start coding. What it's less great for is casually building complex software that you have to maintain on an ongoing basis and take all the risk for upgrades, maintenance, keeping up to date with latest security issues, you know, the bugs, cyber, those are taxes on most knowledge workers who aren't familiar with the system.
**Jason**: 这不是税。这是一个巨大的风险。
Original English **Jason**: It's not a tax. It's a huge risk.
**Saxs**: 是的，这是一个必须管理的风险，如果你不管理。人们会因此被解雇，因为会有一些上市公司，一些傻瓜试图通过**“氛围编码”**来摆脱困境，然后他们会摧毁企业的价值。这将是光荣的，因为我们都会嘲笑并意识到那很愚蠢，根本不应该发生。
Original English **Saxs**: Yes, it's a risk has to be managed if you don't. People will get fired because there will be some public companies where some goofball tries to **vibe code** their way out of something and they're going to torch the enterprise value. It's going to be glorious to watch because we're all going to laugh and realize that was stupid and should never have happened in the first place.
**Jason**: 是的。我的意思是，它确实有机会改进到通过**幻灭谷**的程度，变得超级高效，你将能够让一个**代理**做合理的事情而不会删除你的数据集。但我们还有很长的路要走。这是你的，你知道，这是**技术采用曲线**。基本上，一项技术被触发。你经历了**试验**，你经历了**期望膨胀的顶峰**。你进入了**幻灭谷**，然后是**启蒙的斜坡**，投资，最终它变得成熟，这是一个机会。嘿，**Freeberg**，你对**Retatrutide**产生了好奇。你已经。
Original English **Jason**: Yeah. I mean, it's there is a chance that this improves to the point passes **trial of disillusionment** and becomes super productive and you'll be able to get an **agent** to do reasonable things without deleting your data set. But we have a way to go. Here is your, you know, this is the **tech adoption chart**. Basically, you got a technology gets triggered. You have the trial, you have this **peak of inflated expectations**. You go into the **trial of disillusionment** and then the **slope of enlightenment** invest and eventually it becomes deer and it's an opportunity. Hey, uh, **Freedberg**, you have become **reddit tide curious**. You have and also
### 新型减肥药与健康科技 **Freeberg**: 告诉我，告诉我关于**Retatrutide**的事，因为我想要它。我想用它。
Original English **Freeberg**: tell me tell me about rea cuz I want it. I want to get on it. M
**Jason**: 我想用它，我需要你告诉**Nat**，我可以服用它。
Original English **Jason**: I want to use it and I need you to tell **Nat** that it's okay for me to take it.
**Freeberg**: 我有一个朋友也有一些建议。
Original English **Freeberg**: I I have a friend who has some advice as well.
**Jason**: **Freeberg**，**Eli Lilly**上个月发布了这项**三期临床试验数据**的报道。所以每个人都对这些数据感到疯狂，这些数据继续显示出非常惊人的结果。所以不像**Tirzepatide**，它是**Eli Lilly**今天的主要产品，它是一种**双重激动剂**。它含有两种**肽**，结合到不同的受体，**GLP-1**和**GIP受体**。现在这种新的**Retatrutide**也结合到**胰高血糖素**，这是第三个受体。而这种**胰高血糖素受体结合肽**会导致细胞增加其新陈代谢，这实际上加速了**脂肪能量消耗**，而不是通常的**肌肉能量消耗**。它更有可能在早期燃烧脂肪，这导致更快的**脂肪流失**，但也减少了**肌肉流失**。现在公布的一些其他数据显示，**非HDL胆固醇**下降了27%，**甘油三酯**下降了41%。
Original English **Jason**: **Freeberg**, the coverage is coming out of this **phase three clinical trial data** release that **Lily** put out last month. So everyone's going crazy over the data which continues to show pretty amazing results. So unlike **trazepatide** which is kind of **Lily**'s main product today, it's a which is a **dual agonist**. It's got two **peptides** in it that that bind to different receptors, the **GLP1**, the **GIP receptor**. This other one now also binds to **glucagon**, which is a third receptor. And that **glucagon receptor binding peptide** causes the cells to increase their **metabolism**, which actually accelerates **fat energy consumption** over what would typically be **muscle energy consumption**. It's more likely to burn up fat early on, which causes more quick **fat loss**, but also reduces **muscle loss**. And some of the other data that's now coming out shows **non-HDL cholesterol** down **27%**, **triglycerides** down **41%**.
**Freeberg**: **肝脏脂肪**下降80%。
Original English **Freeberg**: **Liver fat** down **80%** to
**Jason**: **肝脏脂肪**减少80%。**A1C**在40周内从7.9%降至6%，这非常惊人。顺便说一句，如果你是糖尿病患者，你的**A1C**在几个月内下降这么多，这实际上是一种**救命产品**。这项**三期试验**中的平均用户体重从214磅下降了37磅。相比之下，安慰剂组在40周内只下降了6磅。而且，你知道，副作用适中。20%的人比安慰剂组的人感到更恶心。现在正在进行许多其他独立研究，显示**炎症信号分子**显著减少。所以像“细胞处于困境”这样的全身性信号会触发这种**炎症过程**，这可能对你的身体造成很多其他损害，并加速衰老。所以另一个讨论是**Retatrutide**实际上也可能是一种**抗衰老药物**。
Original English **Jason**: **80% reduction of liver fat**. **A1C** drops from **7.9% to 6% in 40 weeks**, which is amazing, by the way. If you're diabetic and your **A1C** drops that much in a couple of months, it's literally a **life-saving product**. The average user in this **phase 3 trial** saw their weight decline from **214 pounds**. They lost **37 pounds**. That's compared to **six pounds on placebo** in 40 weeks. And you know, modest side effects. **20%** people felt more nauseous than the people that were on the placebo. There's a lot of other separate studies that are being done now that are showing significant reductions in **inflammatory signaling molecules**. So systemic signaling of like hey cells are in distress triggers this kind of **inflammatory process** that can have a lot of other damage to your body can accelerate aging. And so one of the other conversations is that **retride** might actually be kind of a **deaging drug** as well.
**Jason**: **Hercules**，**Hercules**，**Hercules**。你知道，顺便说一句，很多研究都是在高剂量，12毫克剂量下进行的，但你可能可以将这种药物剂量降至2毫克，仍然可以看到很多抗炎维护和其他益处。我不是医生，但人们对这种药物的用途比仅仅用于临床肥胖或**1型糖尿病**更广泛而感到疯狂。**FDA**预计何时批准？
Original English **Jason**: **Hercules**, **Hercules**, **Hercules**, you know, and a lot of the studies, by the way, are done on the the the very high dose, **12 milligram dose**, but you could probably get this thing dosed down to **2 milligrams** and still see a lot of the **anti-inflammatory** maintenance and other benefits. I'm no doctor, but people are going nuts over this being more widely useful than just for clinical obesity or type when the **FDA** when's the projected date for
**Freeberg**: 2027年。27年中期。
Original English **Freeberg**: **2027**. Mid **27**.
**Jason**: 他们是这么说的。可能会更快。我的意思是，数据已经有了，你知道，**FDA**会花时间评估它，但我认为鉴于这一切看起来的样子。
Original English **Jason**: That's what they're saying. Could happen sooner. I mean, the data is in the, you know, the **FDA** will take their time to evaluate it, but I think given the way this is all looking,
**Freeberg**: 可能会更快，可能会在今年晚些时候发生。**Swim Chamath Swim**说这令人难以置信，而且在他们的经验中，它名副其实。
Original English **Freeberg**: could happen sooner, could happen sometime later this year. **Swim Chimath Swim** said it's incredible and that uh it's living up to the hype in their experience.
**Jason**: 谁？
Original English **Jason**: Who?
**Freeberg**: **Swim**。
Original English **Freeberg**: **Swim**.
**Jason**: 那是什么？那是什么？
Original English **Jason**: What is that? What is that?
**Freeberg**: 一个不是我的人。**Swim**。
Original English **Freeberg**: Someone who isn't me. **Swim**.
**Jason**: 哦。
Original English **Jason**: Oh,
**Freeberg**: 这是一个**Reddit**术语。一个不是我的人说，**Swim**有一个朋友，他服用过**Retatrutide**，并且做俯卧撑，说肌肉增长非常显著。
Original English **Freeberg**: this is a **Reddit term**. Someone who isn't me said who has a guy **swim** has a guy and has cycled on **reddatride** and does push-ups and says **muscle gain** has been spectacular
**Freeberg**: 没有肌肉流失，脂肪减少。
Original English **Freeberg**: no **muscle loss** and a lowering of fat.
**Jason**: 如果你上**X**，然后搜索**Retatrutide**。
Original English **Jason**: If you go on **X** and you just search up rea
**Freeberg**: 嗯哼。
Original English **Freeberg**: Mhm.
**Jason**: 太不可思议了。你看到那些65岁的老人，在几周内从**“爸爸肚”**变成了身材极佳的运动员。而且我，我的意思是，我很震惊。然后对我来说，我本身不需要那种帮助，但我的**肝脏健康**对我来说很重要。我的**心脏健康**，因为我是**南亚裔**，它看起来就像一种**神奇药物**。我等不及了。当你让身体挨饿时，当你关闭食欲时，这是**GLP-1激动剂**的功能，通常你的身体会进入一种饥饿模式，你会有一个过程，你的身体试图从现有细胞中产生能量。因为肌肉比脂肪密度大得多，所以肌肉组织比脂肪组织更容易分解。但这种新的激动剂，他们放入**Retatrutide**的这种**胰高血糖素激动剂**，它有利于燃烧脂肪而不是燃烧肌肉。所以这实际上可以促使人们在短期内以低剂量使用它来减肥并保持肌肉，变得健美。这就是为什么健身社区的很多人都在谈论，嘿，我想获得这种药物并服用一段时间。所以你会在那个社区以及所有健康方面看到更多的炒作。感觉我们即将迎来一场**肽**的绝对雪崩，供我们选择。
Original English **Jason**: it's like incredible. You see these like **65 year old guys** that go from a **dadbod** to looking like an incredibly ripped athlete in weeks. And and I I mean I'm shocked. And then for me I don't need that help per se, but my **liver health** is important to me. My **cardiac health** because I'm **South Asian** and it just looks like a **wonder drug**. I can't wait. When you starve your body, when you turn off the the appetite, which is the **GLP-1 agonist** function, normally your body goes into this kind of mode of starvation and you have this process by which your body tries to generate energy from your existing cells. And because muscle is much denser than fat, you can have a favoring of **muscle tissue** being kind of broken up over **fat tissue**. But what this new agonist, this **glucagon agonist** that they put into this **neutrutide** is it favors **fat burning over muscle burning**. And so that actually can drive short-term use at low dose for people to cut weight and maintain muscle and get ripped. And so that's why a lot of people in the kind of **fitness community** are talking about, hey, I want to get access to this and get on it for a while. So you'll see a lot more hype probably in that community as well as the all the health effects. It just feels like we're about to have an absolute avalanche of **peptides** to choose from.
**Freeberg**: 2025年11月，**Eli Lilly**与**特朗普政府**达成协议。我看到这个消息，大幅降低了**Tirzepatide**的价格。我想在**医疗保险**上大约是50美元。
Original English **Freeberg**: On November of 2025, **Lily** cut a deal with the **Trump administration**. I saw this to drop the price on **Drespatide** pretty significantly. I think it's like **50 bucks on Medicare**.
**Jason**: **医疗保险**50美元。是的。
Original English **Jason**: **50 bucks from Medicare**. Yeah.
**Freeberg**: 是的。这是一个相当便宜的价格点，但当你考虑到**Eli Lilly**的产品组合时，它就开始有意义了。你可以花50美元买到**Tirzepatide**，但如果你想升级，就买**Retatrutide**。那是高端产品，他们将从**奔驰**到**本田**开始。我相信如果我是**Eli Lilly**，我坐在那里看着这些数据出来，我会想，“天哪，人们会为这个买单的，这开始有点像升级到**宝马**或**Model S Plaid**，如果你愿意的话。”
Original English **Freeberg**: Yeah. Which is a pretty cheap price point, but it starts to make sense as you think about the portfolio of **Lily products**. You get **Tzepide** for **50 bucks**, but if you want to upgrade, get the **Retatride**. That's the high premium product and that's where they're going to start the **Mercedes** to the **Honda**. I'm sure if I'm **Lily** and I'm sitting there and I'm looking at this data coming out, I'm like, "My god, people will pay for this and that starts to become sort of like the upgrade to the **BMW** or the **Model S plat** if you will."
**Jason**: 是的。**Tirzepatide**就像那个一居室的，床很乱的酒店房间。
Original English **Jason**: Yeah. The **Trappetide** is like the one bedroomedroom messy bed hotel room
**Freeberg**: 而另一个是**Retatrutide**，就像两居室套房。
Original English **Freeberg**: and the other one's the **sweetide** is like the twobedroom suite.
**Jason**: 嗯，顺便说一句，你们都知道我是**Row**的发言人。他们也有**Wagovi**药丸。**row.co/twistcotwist**，去获取你的。
Original English **Jason**: Well, you can also, by the way, you guys know I'm a spokesman for **Row**. They also have the **Waggoi pill** uh **row.co/twistcotwist** uh to get your
**Freeberg**: 等等，你是在谈论你是一个付费的吗？你是在谈论什么？我们正在把**Charles Barkley**和。
Original English **Freeberg**: Wait, are you a paid talking about Are you a paid What are you talking about? We're putting **Charles Barkley** and
**Jason**: 我们没有销售团队。
Original English **Jason**: we're not having sales team
**Freeberg**: 然后你来到**All-In**，然后你开始推广。
Original English **Freeberg**: and then you come over on **Allin** and you start promoting.
**Jason**: 不，不，不，不。相信我，我们也会得到一个。我们在这里会得到一个**Row**的赞助。
Original English **Jason**: No, no, no, no. Trust me, we'll get one of those as well. We'll get a **row**. Sponsorship here.
**Chamath**: 你让我拿的那个**Row**药丸叫什么名字？
Original English **Chamath**: What was the ro pill that you had me get? What was it called?
**Jason**: 哦，**Sparks**。**Sparks**。**Sparks**。你吃了吗？
Original English **Jason**: Oh, **sparks**. **Sparks**. **Sparks**. Did you take it?
**Chamath**: 我吃了，现在。
Original English **Chamath**: I have taken it and now
**Jason**: 更多，拜托。不，不是。
Original English **Jason**: Amore please. No, not
**Freeberg**: 也许只是一半，糟糕的。
Original English **Freeberg**: maybe just a half of a lousy.
**Jason**: 我想听故事。我想听故事。说吧。
Original English **Jason**: I want to hear the story. I want to hear the story. Go.
**Chamath**: 太失控了。
Original English **Chamath**: It's so out of control.
**Jason**: 我告诉过你什么。
Original English **Jason**: I told what I told you.
**Chamath**: 然后发生的事情是**Nat**和我都觉得，你不能随意使用它。它是安排好的。我们讨论它。我们把它写在日历上。
Original English **Chamath**: So then what happens is **Nat** and I are like, you can't you can't just randomly use it. It's scheduled. We discuss it. We put it on the calendar.
**Jason**: 你需要一个计划。
Original English **Jason**: You need a plan.
**Chamath**: 你需要一个计划。
Original English **Chamath**: You need a plan.
**Jason**: 你需要一个计划。不能进去。
Original English **Jason**: You need a plan. Can't go in
**Chamath**: 因为否则，否则就太多了。你不能随意服用它。
Original English **Chamath**: because otherwise otherwise it's too much. You just can't randomly take it.
**Jason**: 你什么意思？
Original English **Jason**: What do you mean?
**Chamath**: 这会是一场**狂欢**。
Original English **Chamath**: It's going to be a **sesh**.
**Freeberg**: 这是一件大事，伙计。就像我没有精力去做那个。
Original English **Freeberg**: It's a whole thing, man. It's like I don't have the energy for that.
**Jason**: 这是一次**长时间的活动**。你必须休息好。不要在凌晨1点做这个。这更像是晚上10点。这更像是，不，这更像是度假的时候，你知道，就像。
Original English **Jason**: It's an **extended session**. You you have to be well rested. This don't do this at 1:00 a.m. This is like a 10 p.m. This is like a No, this is more like a This is more like on vacation, you know, like
**Freeberg**: 早上10点到中午12点，你知道，你必须真正。
Original English **Freeberg**: 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m., you know, to noon, you know, you got to really
**Jason**: 你必须真正安排好。
Original English **Jason**: you got to really schedule it.
**Freeberg**: 安排好，因为孩子们在旁边。
Original English **Freeberg**: Schedule it because kids around
**Chamath**: 否则就必须是空的。
Original English **Chamath**: otherwise it's got to be empty.
**Freeberg**: 否则，这对她不公平，这只是一个谎言。把它说出来。
Original English **Freeberg**: Otherwise, it's unfair to her and it's just a li it's a lie. Put it out.
**Jason**: 这是一个巨大的承诺。
Original English **Jason**: It's a It's a big commitment literally.
**Freeberg**: 你看起来很尴尬，**Jim**。你谈论它时感到尴尬吗？这只是很多，伙计。这就像，这很难处理。这很多。
Original English **Freeberg**: You You look embarrassed, **Jim**. Do you feel embarrassed talking about it? It's just a lot, man. It's like It's a lot to handle. It's a lot.
**Chamath**: 如果你想在你的表现上获得额外的20%。
Original English **Chamath**: It's If you want to get the extra 20% in your performance,
**Freeberg**: 这很多，兄弟。
Original English **Freeberg**: it's a lot, bro.
**Chamath**: 这很多。基本上是加班。
Original English **Chamath**: It's a lot. It's basically over time.
**Jason**: 发生了什么？发生的事情是，我当时想，“哦，这是什么东西？”**Jason**说，“老兄，你必须得到它。你必须得到它。”所以，我们得到了它。我们试了试，然后。
Original English **Jason**: What happened? What happened was I was like, "Oh, what is this thing?" **Jason**'s like, "Dude, you must get it. You must get it." So, we got it. We tried it and
**Chamath**: 我们当时想，“那是什么？”所以，我一直在尝试把药丸分发出去。所以我给了**Stant Tang**一些。我说，“**Stanley**，你试试。”实际上，他像发牌一样分发它们。
Original English **Chamath**: we were like, "What the was that?" And so, then I've been trying to bleed the pills out. So, I gave some to **Stant Tang**. I'm like, "**Stanley**, you try it." Literally, he's dealing them like cards
**Jason**: 但当我们吃扑克晚餐时，我问，有人想试试这些东西吗？但这些是什么？**Rose Sparks**。那是**Rose Sparks**吗？向我的朋友们致敬。好的，我们继续。**Freeberg**，伙计们。**Freeberg**有他自己的**超级碗**。你看我准备**尼克斯队季后赛**。我拿到了场边票。**Freeberg**有同等的事情。他去了**最高法院**听他们谈论化学品。这对她来说是件大事。**最高法院**开庭了。你穿了吗？是的。**孟山都**案在**最高法院**审理，他去了，他拿到了场边票。他去了**最高法院**并在大楼里旁听。你们有人看过**最高法院**的现场听证会吗？
Original English **Jason**: but when we're having poker dinner, I'm like, does anybody want to try these things? But these what is it? **Rose sparks**. Is that **rose sparks**? Shout out to my friends out. All right, let's keep moving here. **Freedberg**, guys. **Friedberg** had his own personal **Super Bowl**. You see me getting ready for **Nick**'s playoff season. I get my courtside. **Freeberg** had the equivalence acts. He went to the **Supreme Court** in order to hear them talk about chemicals. This was a big deal for him. The **Supreme Court** coming together. Did you wear it? Yes. The **Monsanto trial** happened in the **Supreme Court** and he went he got courtside. He went to the **Supreme Court** and listened in the building. Have you guys ever seen a live **Supreme Court hearing**?
**Saxs**: 没有。我很想去。
Original English **Saxs**: No. I'd love to.
**Jason**: 我很想去。**Saxs**，你去过吗？
Original English **Jason**: I'd love to. **Tax**, have you been?
**Saxs**: 不，我没有。
Original English **Saxs**: No, I haven't actually.
**Freeberg**: 我的意思是，老实说，我认为那是我有过的最棒的经历之一。外面有大规模抗议。我们通过**法警办公室**进去。那栋大楼，你走进去，就像神圣的地方。全是大理石。你不允许说话。在大楼里你必须非常安静。他们一直让你保持安静，就像你在一个安静的图书馆里一样。人们以这种尊重和神圣的态度对待它。他们说，这里没有政治。这里没有[ __ ]。这里没有言论自由。这是法庭。当你进入这个法庭时，法官会告诉你如何说话，如何行为，做什么，你不能在被问到之前说话。你把所有东西都放在储物柜里，你走上楼梯，你走进法庭。法庭里，在那里真是太棒了。法官上方有令人惊叹的**大理石浮雕**，上面刻着人类历史上一些伟人，**摩西**和这些令人惊叹的历史人物。然后在他们下面是九位法官和这个案件。如果你们没有看过这个案件，我想你们可以在网上听。值得听吗？
Original English **Freeberg**: I mean, honest honestly, I think it was one of the most amazing experiences I've ever had. There was a massive protest out front. We went through the **marshall's office** to get in. And that building, you walk in, it's like sacred. It's all marble. It's you're not allowed to talk. You have to be super quiet when you're in the building. Like they keep going like you're in some quiet library. It's like people treat it with this level of kind of sanctity that that and respect. And they're like, there is no politics here. There is no [ __ ] There is no **freedom of speech**. This is the court. When you come into this court, the justices tell you how you will speak, how you will behave, what you will do, and you will not speak unless spoken to. You put all your stuff in a locker, you go up the stairs, you go into the the courtroom. And the courtroom, it's just so amazing being in there. They have this amazing **marble freeze** above the justices that has some of the great people of human history, **Moses** and these kind of amazing historical figures. And then below them are the nine justices and the court case. If you guys haven't watched the case, you can listen to them, I think, online. on you. Is it worth listening to?
### 最高法院听证会与法律辩论 **Jason**: 等等，等等，等等。我有一个问题。所以。
Original English **Jason**: Hold on. Wait, wait, wait. I have a question. So,
**Jason**: **Roberts**坐在中间是因为他是首席法官吗？是的。
Original English **Jason**: does **Robert** sit in the middle cuz he's a chief? Yes.
**Jason**: 然后所有右翼法官都坐在右边吗？
Original English **Jason**: And then do all of the right justices sit on the right?
**Freeberg**: 不，他们是混合的。所以他们，我想我不知道确切的座位安排，但他们在法庭的任命方面是混合的。是这样吗？我想是这样。然后，是的，没错。然后它从中间向外延伸，**Roberts**在中间。**Roberts**偶尔会点名法官，说，“嘿，你有什么问题吗？你有什么问题吗？”如果没有人说话，但否则法官会在他们想提问时跳出来提问。现在，老实说，看这个就像看**勒布朗·詹姆斯**打篮球一样。两边的律师都令人印象深刻得令人难以置信，你会坐在那里，我当时惊叹不已。整个过程结束后，我感觉我的精力完全被耗尽了，因为你全身心地投入其中，完全被这些人的思维和谈吐所吸引。
Original English **Freeberg**: No, they're mixed. So, they're I think I don't know I don't know the exact seating, but they're mixed in terms on appointments of the court. Is that right? I think that's right. And then so yeah, that's right. And then it kind of goes out from the middle with **Roberts** in the middle. **Roberts** occasionally will name the justices and say, "Hey, do you have a question? Do you have a question?" if no one's talking, but otherwise the justices will jump in with their questions when they want and they'll ask. Now, honest to God, watching this is like watching **LeBron James** play basketball. These lawyers are so mind-blowingly impressive on both sides that you would just like sit there and I was like in awe. It was so I I felt like my energy was completely sapped from me at the end of this process because you were just so engaged and so caught into the way that these guys are thinking and talking.
**Jason**: 你当时吃了**Rose Sparks**吗？你当时吃了**Rose Sparks**吗？
Original English **Jason**: Did you take a **rose sparks**? Did you take a **rose sparks** when you were there?
**Freeberg**: 没有。如果你足够熟悉这个案件，或者案件历史，或者正在辩论的法律，因为再次，当你到达**最高法院**时，你从不辩论案件本身。你辩论的是对案件所做决定的**法律解释**。所以这是否符合宪法？你如何解释这项特定的法案，这项法律，这项联邦法律？正确的思考方式是什么？所以你实际上不谈论案件。你谈论的是对**美国法律**的解释。
Original English **Freeberg**: No. And if you're familiar if you're familiar enough with the case or the case history or the law that's being debated because again when when you get to the **Supreme Court**, you never debate the case. What you're debating is the **legal interpretation** of the the decisions that were made on the case. And so is this constitutional? How do you interpret this particular act, this law, this federal law? What's the right way to think about it? So you don't actually talk about the case. You talk about the interpretation of **American law**,
**Freeberg**: 我们的法律，我们的宪法，全球的。
Original English **Freeberg**: of our laws, of our constitution, of the global.
**Jason**: 你是说事实已经确定了。
Original English **Jason**: You're saying the facts have already been determined.
**Freeberg**: 没错。
Original English **Freeberg**: That's right.
**Jason**: 对。在下级法院，有事实问题和法律问题。
Original English **Jason**: Right. At a lower court, there's questions of fact and questions of law.
**Freeberg**: 事实已经由下级法院确定。**最高法院**只对法律问题作出裁决。
Original English **Freeberg**: The facts have already been determined by the lower court. It's just **Supreme Court** is ruling on questions of law.
**Freeberg**: 没错。所以他们有完整的案情摘要，包括案件的完整历史。记住，他们每天只审理两个案件。所以每次听证会各一小时。
Original English **Freeberg**: That's right. And so they have a full briefing with the full history of the case. And remember, they only hear two cases a day. So they're one hour each for each hearing.
**Jason**: 所以你进去，他们只在最后两周的周一、周二、周三审理。他们只审理从10月到4月的案件。只有少数案件被选中。
Original English **Jason**: So you go in and they only do it Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday on the last two weeks. and they only hear cases from October to April. There's only a handful of cases that are selected.
**Saxs**: 哇。所以你真的在**倒计时**，然后才能。
Original English **Saxs**: Wow. So you're really on a **shock clock** then to make
**Freeberg**: 你在**倒计时**，你只有，每边30分钟，然后法官会提问。
Original English **Freeberg**: you're on a **shot clock** and you only have and it's 30 minutes aside and then the justices will ask question.
**Jason**: 所以这是**孟山都**和**农达**的案子，对吧？那么当时辩论的法律是什么？
Original English **Jason**: So this was **Monsanto** and **Roundup**, right? So what was the law that was being debated
**Freeberg**: 你的。监管机构**EPA**设定农药标签。这是否致癌？警告是什么？这可能对**出生缺陷**、**怀孕**造成损害，所有我们习惯在标签上看到的东西。当你购买一种产品，一种化学产品时，**EPA**及其监管机构确定**农达**不致癌。当你销售一种农药时，你首先必须向**EPA**注册，获得批准，然后**EPA**会给你一个标签。标签是由**EPA**编写的。它确切地说明了你应该说什么。在这个案例中，它说所有这些东西都没有说致癌，因为他们确定它不致癌。我不会争论它是否致癌，但这就是提出的论点，即**EPA**是根据一项名为**FIFRA**（杀真菌剂、杀虫剂或杀鼠剂法案）的联邦法案的监管机构。这就是**EPA**被赋予监管权力来在这些产品上贴标签的地方。所有输掉的案件都是**州未能警告案件**。迄今为止，现在拥有**孟山都**的**拜耳**公司已在这些诉讼中支付了100亿美元，并在其资产负债表上预留了100亿美元。他们仍有9万起案件悬而未决。9万起。
Original English **Freeberg**: for yours? The regulatory body, the **EPA** sets the label for pesticides. Does this cause cancer or not? What are the warnings? This can be damaging for **birth defects**, **pregnancy**, all the things that we're all used to seeing on labels. when you buy a product, a chemical product and the **EPA** and their regulatory authority determined that **Roundup** does not cause cancer. When you sell a pesticide, you first have to register it with the **EPA**, get it approved, and then the **EPA** gives you a label. And the label is written by the **EPA**. It says exactly what you're supposed to say. And in this case, it said all this stuff doesn't say cancer because they determined it does not cause cancer. And I'm not going to debate whether or not it causes cancer, but that's the case that was made is that the **EPA** is the regulatory body under a federal act called **FIFRA**, **fungicide**, **insecttoide** or **denicide act**. And that's where the **EPA** is given their regulatory authority to put the label on these products. And all of the cases that have been lost have been **state failure to warn cases**. To date, **Bayer**, which now owns **Monsanto**, has paid out **$10 billion** in these lawsuits, and they have reserved **10 billion** on their **balance sheet**. They have **90,000 cases** still outstanding in the courts. **90,000**.
**Saxs**: 哇。
Original English **Saxs**: Wow.
**Freeberg**: 所以，这个案件被上诉到了**最高法院**。去年，**白宫**的**总检察长**，如果**总检察长**出面要求**最高法院**受理一个案件，那么该案件更有可能被受理。所以**白宫**说，“请受理这个案件。我们需要**联邦优先权**，这意味着联邦政府有权设定标签，因为所有输掉的案件和正在审理的案件都在州法院，而州法院有像**加利福尼亚州**的**未能警告法**，这意味着如果制造商知道产品存在风险，你必须警告消费者。”所以律师们一直在争论**孟山都**或**拜耳**知道这个产品致癌但没有警告消费者。他们一直在赢得案件。他们一直在输掉案件，但他们赢得了足够的案件，以至于这现在已经成为一个数十亿美元的问题。所以争论是**EPA**说它不致癌，他们拥有**联邦优先权**。所以**EPA**有权决定。所以这是一个论点。但当另一位律师出庭时，这家伙简直就像看**勒布朗·詹姆斯**一样。所以我们进去的时候，我们想，“哦，63，**拜耳**会赢。”然后另一个人走上来说，“嗯，嘿，你们去年推翻了**雪佛龙原则**。你们还记得那个案子吗？”
Original English **Freeberg**: And so, this one case got kind of appealed up to the **Supreme Court**. Last year, the **White House solicitor general**, and if the **solicitor general** steps up and asks the **Supreme Court** to take a case, it's more likely the case gets taken. So, the **White House** said, "Please take this case. We need to have **federal preeemption**, meaning the federal government has the right to set the label because all of the cases that have been lost and that are being adjudicated are in state courts where the state has a law like in **California** called a **failure to warn law**, which means if a manufacturer knows that a product carries a risk, you have to warn the consumer. And so the the lawyers have been arguing that **Monsanto** or **Bayer** knew that this product caused cancer and didn't warn the consumer. And they've been winning cases. they've been losing cases, but they've won enough cases that this has now become a **multi-dea billion dollar problem**. And so the argument is that the **EPA** says it doesn't cause cancer and they have **federal preeemption**. So the **EPA** has the right to determine. So that's the one argument. But then when the other attorney came up, this guy was like literally like watching **LeBron James**. And so going in, we're like, "Oh, 63 **Bayer**'s going to win." And then the other guy comes up and he was like, "Well, hey, you guys overturned the **Chevron doctrine** last year. You guys remember that case?
**Jason**: 是的。基本上，当**雪佛龙原则**被推翻时，它基本上说不再。
Original English **Jason**: Yeah. Where basically when the **Chevron doctrine** got overturned, it basically said that no longer
**Freeberg**: 联邦机构可以决定，它必须是对法律的直接解读。
Original English **Freeberg**: does the federal agency get to decide it has to be a direct reading of the law.
**Jason**: 废话。所以现在，所以他说各州应该有权自己解读法律。他们不应该仅仅服从**EPA**。这就是这个案子的症结所在。所以最后，我们想，“哦，天哪，这可能是五五开，54%的胜率。”我们进去的时候，我们有点想说，“嘿，这可能是63%。”所以老实说，整个经历令人难以置信。这个案子很有趣。
Original English **Jason**: Duh. So now, so he's saying like the states should have a right to read the law themselves. They shouldn't have to just defer to the **EPA**. And that's what this will come down to. So at the end of it, we were like, "Oh my god, this could be a **50/50 coin flip**, 54 either way." And going into it, we were kind of like trying to say, "Hey, maybe this could be 63." So honestly, the whole experience was incredible. The case is interesting.
**Saxs**: 这些都是非常复杂的事情。这些人怎么能在一个小时内，一方30分钟，另一方30分钟，再加一点问答，就提出一个完整的论点呢？
Original English **Saxs**: These are very complicated matters. How are these people able to make a wholesome argument in like one side gets 30 minutes, the other side gets 30 minutes, there's a little Q&A, and then you're done in an hour.
**Freeberg**: 这里面有整套的艺术和科学，**Saxs**，你可能对此很熟悉，关于如何将一个**最高法院**案件提炼到案情摘要中？你向法院申请的是什么？你试图将其提炼到你希望法官裁决的精确**法律解释**，而不是所有其他[ __ ]。
Original English **Freeberg**: There's this whole art and science and **Sax**, you're probably familiar with this on how do you distill down a **Supreme Court case** in the briefing dock? Like what is it you're petitioning around the court? and you try and distill it down to the exact **legal interpretation** you want the judges to rule on, not all the other [ __ ]
**Saxs**: 这是**口头辩论**。是的。
Original English **Saxs**: And this is **oral arguments**. Yes.
**Freeberg**: **口头辩论**，只是一场讨论。然后法官们会跳出来，他们所做的就是向律师提问，一次一个律师，一方，然后另一方。顺便说一句，**总检察长**在中间出庭，发表了一些评论，他们向她提了一些来自**白宫**的问题，然后她坐下了，然后双方来回辩论，他们只是，就像每方30分钟的问答，围绕着那个特定的法律问题，**Ketanji Brown Jackson**说，“但是如果**EPA**发布标签后，他们发现信息表明它确实致癌呢？他们不应该更新标签吗？”他说，“嗯，不，他们不允许。他们只能发布**EPA**说的标签。”他还说，如果他们发现它确实致癌但没有向**EPA**报告，那也是一个刑事案件，然后她说，如果**EPA**不采取行动，各州不应该有权保护他们的人民吗？所以这些都是正在进行的法律论点和讨论。这里面有有趣的含义，即如果各州可以解释联邦法律并无视联邦监管机构，那将打开一个全新的潘多拉盒子，所有州都可以开始无视**EPA**或**FDA**或**USDA**等联邦监管机构，等等等等。所以整个案件包含了许多非常有趣的含义。当你听到这些人，他们只是在谈论**Chamath**，关于法律的精确解释，这就是这个案子的症结所在。实际的案情并不重要。
Original English **Freeberg**: **Oral arguments**, just a discussion. And then the judges jump in and all they're doing is asking the lawyer questions, one lawyer at a time, the one side and then the other side. And by the way, the **solicitor general** came up in the middle and kind of made a few comments and they asked her some questions from the **White House** and she sat down and then the two sides kind of went back and forth and and they just it's like 30 minutes Q&A each on that one specific legal question and **Katanji Brown Jackson** said, "But what if after the **EPA** issued the label, they found out information that it does cause cancer? Shouldn't they update the label?" And he's saying, "Well, no, they're not allowed to. They can only issue the label the **EPA** says." And he says also and it's it's a criminal case if they find out that it does cause cancer and they don't report it to the **EPA** and then she's saying well what if the **EPA** doesn't act and shouldn't the states have a right to protect their people? So those are the **legal arguments**, the discussions that are going on in all of this. And there's interesting implications which is fundamentally if the states get to interpret federal law and ignore federal regulatory bodies, it opens up a whole new can of worms in terms of like all the states can start to ignore federal regula regulatory bodies like the **EPA** or the **FDA** or the **USDA** or and on and on and on. So the whole case has a whole bunch of really interesting implications wound up in it. when you hear these guys and they're just talking **chimat** about that exact like **interpretation of the law** and that's what this comes down to. It's not the actual case that matters
**Jason**: 在**Sachs**的**口头辩论**之后，他们会有一个私人会议，在那里他们会写下他们的论文并给出最终判决。是的。
Original English **Jason**: and after the **sachs** they **oral arguments** and then they have like a private conference where they'll write their papers and give their final judgment. Yeah.
**Saxs**: **Saxs**。
Original English **Saxs**: **Saxs**.
**Freeberg**: 是的。是的，我认为发生的事情是，所以我想有一些幕后讨论，他们会找出多数派在哪里，然后首席法官会指派谁来撰写多数意见。
Original English **Freeberg**: Yeah. Yeah, I think what happens is that so I guess there's some discussion that happens behind closed doors and they figure out where the majority is and then the chief gets to assign who writes the opinion for the majority
**Jason**: 在那个会议上，没有人被允许进入，事实上，你有一个**双重门系统**，如果有什么需要进出，你必须像敲门一样，你被带到一个**前厅**，然后。
Original English **Jason**: in that meeting nobody is allowed in and in fact you have a **double door system** where like if anything needs to come in and out you have to like kind of like knock on the door you're led into this **anti chamber** then
**Saxs**: 哦，那是一个**气闸**吗？是一个**气闸**吗？
Original English **Saxs**: oh is it an **airlock** is an **airlock**
**Freeberg**: 实际上，我们，我当时有，我不知道你当时在不在，**Jason**，但我们请了**Ted Cruz**来玩扑克。
Original English **Freeberg**: it's effectively we I had I don't know if you were there **Jason** but we had **Ted Cruz** come to play in the poker game
**Freeberg**: 嗯，**Ted Cruz**曾是**William Rehnquist**的书记员，如果你想吃一顿丰盛的晚餐，问他关于**最高法院**和**Bill Rehnquist**的事情。他是一个真正的**最高法院**学生，他只是让**最高法院**，**Freeberg**，听起来像是创造过的最不可思议的机构。顺便说一句，比**白宫**，比**国会大厦**，比任何其他大型机构都更甚，这个地方，它几乎就像在**英国**一样，它有这种人们运作的方式。安全措施如此不同。他们有点站在法庭上，每20分钟互相交换位置。非常协调。他们穿着与任何其他地方都非常不同。
Original English **Freeberg**: uh And **Ted Cruz** clerked for **William Ranquist** and if you want to have an incredible dinner, ask him about the **Supreme Court** and **Bill Ranquist**. He's a real student of the **Supreme Court** and it just makes the **Supreme Court** free to your point sound like the most incredible body that's ever been created anywhere. By the way, more than the **White House**, more than the **Capital Building**, more than any of these other big agencies, this place has it's almost like being in **England**, it has these kind of ways that people operate. The the the security is so different. They kind of stand there in the court and they all exchange places every 20 minutes. It's very coordinated. They're dressed very differently than any other
**Jason**: 法庭听证。
Original English **Jason**: courtroom listening.
**Freeberg**: 也许像150人，我会说。你怎么看？他们是。
Original English **Freeberg**: Maybe like 150, I would say. How do you take it? Are they on
**Saxs**: 我实际上认为每个人都是书记员或在法院工作的人的客人。我不认为那里有非常公开的入场机会。
Original English **Saxs**: I actually think everyone is a guest of a clerk or someone that works at the court. I don't think that it's like very publicly available to get in there.
**Jason**: 你不能排队。没有队伍。
Original English **Jason**: You can't line up. There's no lineup.
**Saxs**: 我不知道有没有队伍。嗯，这是通过首席法官的关系我们才进去的。他给了我们通行证，但我认为那非常。
Original English **Saxs**: There's I don't know if there's a lineup. Um this was a connection through we got in through the chief justice. Um he gave us the pass, but I think it was like very um
**Jason**: 我认为在**Elon**诉**OpenAI**的案子中，你可以排队，然后法官给了媒体法庭30张票。不，不。是的，但我认为**最高法院**也有排队。有一些公共访问权限。
Original English **Jason**: I think at the **Elon** versus **Open AI** case there's you can line up and then the judge gave like 30 tickets to the press court. No, no. Yeah, but I think there's a lineup for the **Supreme Court** as well. There's some public access that they're
**Saxs**: 看起来没有公众人士进入这个法庭。每个人，每个人都穿着得体。我的意思是，这个法庭有令人难以置信的。
Original English **Saxs**: It did not look like anyone from the public was in this court. Everyone, everyone is dressed respectfully. I mean, this court has an incredible amount of like,
**Freeberg**: 你知道，很酷的体验。
Original English **Freeberg**: you know, cool experience.
**Saxs**: 我只想说，趁你还能享受的时候就享受吧。我的意思是，我认为**最高法院**是美国最后一个高度运作的机构之一。
Original English **Saxs**: I would I would just say uh enjoy it while you can. I mean, I think the **Supreme Court** is one of the last highly functional institutions in the **United States**. And%
**Saxs**: 你知道，在某个时候，我们会有13个或21个，或者一些疯狂数量的法官在那里。
Original English **Saxs**: you know at some point we're going to have like 13 or 21 or some crazy number of justices up there
**Freeberg**: 然后法官们会穿上球衣，所以趁它还在。
Original English **Freeberg**: and get jersey after justices there and so enjoy it while it's still
**Saxs**: 以它现在的形式。
Original English **Saxs**: in the current in the current form it's in.
**Jason**: 你能想象穿着印有法官名字的球衣，有不同的区域，还有人卖**脆皮花生**吗？
Original English **Jason**: Can you imagine showing up with jerseys with the justices names on them and like having sections and like somebody selling **cracker jacks**
**Freeberg**: **神权统治版最高法院**。
Original English **Freeberg**: **theocracy version** of the **Supreme Court**
**Jason**: 版本。没错。
Original English **Jason**: version. Exactly.
**Saxs**: 法院的受欢迎程度真的取决于它是否发布人们同意的裁决。这就是问题的关键。如果，如果你问人们是否喜欢**最高法院**，那真的只取决于他们是否同意这些裁决，是最近的，而不是。
Original English **Saxs**: The popularity of the court really depends on whether it's issuing decisions that people agree with. That's what it comes down to. If like if you ask people whether they like the **Supreme Court** or not, it really just depends on whether they agree with the decisions are recency as opposed to
**Freeberg**: 裁决的过程，以及它论证得有多好，以及你指出的所有这些事情。实际上，法院，我的意思是，我刚刚查了数字。法院现在相对受欢迎。我认为在2024年**盖洛普民意调查**中，它曾低至35%，但我认为它现在回升到，你知道，44%到50%的支持率，这对于涉及政治的机构来说是相对较高的，对吧？就像你看看国会或者。
Original English **Freeberg**: the process of the decisions and how well argued it is and all these things that you're pointing to. And actually the the court I mean I just checked the numbers. The court is relatively popular right now. I think that it got as low as **35%** in the **2024 Gallup survey**, but I think it's back up to, you know, like **44 to 50% favorability**, which for something that's involved in politics is relatively high, right? Like you look at Congress or
**Saxs**: 任何特定的政治家，他们通常会低于那个数字。我只是觉得，当我参观并看到这些人互动和行为，以及他们如何处理这个过程时，我对这个机构感到如此安心。就像。
Original English **Saxs**: any particular politician, they're going to be lower than that typically. I just felt so assured of like the institution when I visited and saw these guys interact and behave and how they behave the process. It was like
**Freeberg**: 伙计，这是一个多么棒的国家。是的。
Original English **Freeberg**: man this what an amazing country. Yeah.
**Saxs**: 嗯，我之所以这么说，是因为最近有一次对**James Carville**的采访。你们看到了吗？他说，他说，看，当我们掌权时，我们会**扩充法院**。
Original English **Saxs**: Well, the reason I say what I say is there was an interview with **James Carville** recently. Did you guys see this? He saidaw he said look when we get power we're **packing the court**.
**Jason**: 所以我们甚至不会，我们不会担心它。
Original English **Jason**: So we're not even going to we're not going to worry about it.
**Saxs**: 我们会达到13个，对吧？他说我们会。
Original English **Saxs**: And we're going to get to 13, right? He said we're going to make
**Freeberg**: 我想是的。他们会从9个增加到13个，然后他们会创建一些新州等等。所以就是这样了。
Original English **Freeberg**: I think Yeah. They're going to go from 9 to 13 and then they're going to create some new states and all the rest of it. So that'll be that.
**Saxs**: 嗯。
Original English **Saxs**: Uh
**Freeberg**: 享受吧，趁它还在。享受吧。
Original English **Freeberg**: enjoy enjoy while it last. Enjoy.
**Jason**: 享受吧，趁它还在。
Original English **Jason**: Enjoy while it lasts.
**Saxs**: 嗯，顺便说一句。
Original English **Saxs**: Uh by the way,
**Freeberg**: 以高调结束。
Original English **Freeberg**: end on a high note.
**Jason**: 等等。是的。这是帝国的终结。就是这样了。
Original English **Jason**: Wait. Yeah. It's the end of the empire. That'll be that.
**Freeberg**: 顺便说一句，**最高法院**有一个，我没错。有一个**在线购票抽签系统**。所以我们都可以注册，你可以获得四张票。我认为他们应该把这个变成，我们应该和**Howard Lutnick**谈谈。也许他可以把这个变成拍卖。我们可以从美国获得收入来源。我们可以把10张票作为场边座位出售，每张2万美元。
Original English **Freeberg**: By the way, there is uh a **Supreme Court** on I was correct. There is an **online ticketing lottery**. So we can all sign up and you can get a fourack of tickets. I think they should make this I we should talk to **Howard Lutnik**. Maybe he can make this an auction. We get a revenue stream from the **US**. We could sell like 10 of the tickets as **courtside seats** for **20 grand**.
**Saxs**: **Jason**，你正是他们试图保护的对象。
Original English **Saxs**: **Jason**, you're exactly what they're trying to protect against.
**Jason**: 没错。就像，我们怎么才能，我们怎么才能把**最高法院**变现？
Original English **Jason**: Exactly. Like, how can we how do we monetize the **Supreme Court**?
**Jason**: 好了，各位。就是这样。这就是世界上最棒的播客，献给**Chamath Palihapitiya**、**David Freeberg**和**David Saxs**。我是世界上最棒的主持人。我们首席大法官再见。
Original English **Jason**: All right, everybody. That's it. That's the world's greatest podcast for you for **Chimoth Poly Hatia**, **David Freeberg**, and **David Saxs**. I am the world's greatest moderator. We'll see you chief justice.
**Jason**: 我就像**All-In**播客的首席大法官。
Original English **Jason**: I'm like the chief justice of the **allin podcast**.
**Jason**: 我们会让你的赢家继续。
Original English **Jason**: We'll let your winners ride.
**Jason**: **Rainman David**。
Original English **Jason**: **Rainman David**
**Jason**: 它说我们把它开源给了粉丝，他们都为之疯狂。
Original English **Jason**: and it said we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.
**Jason**: 爱你，女王。
Original English **Jason**: Love you queen of
**Jason**: 赢家。
Original English **Jason**: winners.
**Jason**: 闺蜜们走了。
Original English **Jason**: Besties are gone.
**Jason**: 那是我的狗在车道上。
Original English **Jason**: That is my dog taking a driveway.
**Jason**: 哦，伙计。我的裁缝会见。
Original English **Jason**: Oh man. My habitasher will meet.
**Jason**: 我们都应该开个房间，来一场巨大的狂欢，因为他们都毫无用处。这就像这种性张力，你必须以某种方式释放它。
Original English **Jason**: We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all just useless. It's like this like sexual tension that you just need to release somehow.
**Jason**: 你的脚。
Original English **Jason**: Your feet.
**Jason**: 我们需要让**Mercury**已经。我要全力以赴。
Original English **Jason**: We need to get **Mercury**'s already. I'm going all in.