--- author: New York Times Podcasts date: '2026-10-27' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhdHny0Iajk speaker: New York Times Podcasts tags: - election - geopolitics - initial-public-offering - artificial-intelligence - inflation title: 以色列10月7日后首场大选与Anthropic筹备IPO summary: 《纽约时报》头条播报：以色列举行10月7日袭击后的首次全国大选，选民在内塔尼亚胡极右翼联盟与反对派之间抉择；美国中期选举前夕跨性别议题成为多州与广告战焦点；Anthropic提交招股说明书拟进行巨额IPO并披露百亿支出与安全风险；此外万圣节糖果价格上涨超70%。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: geopolitics area: geopolitics project: [] people: - Benjamin Netanyahu - Gadi Eisenkot companies_orgs: - The New York Times - Anthropic products_models: - Claude media_books: [] status: evergreen --- 这里是《纽约时报》头条新闻。我是特蕾西·芒福德（Tracy Mumford）。今天是10月27日星期二。以下是我们的报道内容。
Original English From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Munford. Today's Tuesday, October 27th. Here's what we're covering.
### 以色列举行10月7日后首场大选 今天是以色列的大选日。这是自10月7日哈马斯主导的袭击以来举行的首次全国大选，那场袭击颠覆了当地的生活，并引爆了以色列在加沙破坏性极大的战争。国内许多人将今天视为以色列历史上最关键的一次投票，选民将在提供截然不同未来愿景的两大阵营之间做出抉择。一边是寻求连任的总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡（Benjamin Netanyahu），他领导着以色列有史以来最极右翼的政府。他的执政联盟给出的承诺是一个更加宗教化的以色列，并对约旦河西岸和加沙实施更加严密的控制。另一边则是由前以色列国防军总参谋长加迪·埃森科特（Gadi Eisenkot）松散领导的反对党联盟，他的儿子在加沙战争中丧生。该联盟将今天的投票描绘为维护以色列民主、避免国家沦为在国际上被孤立的“贱民国家”的最后机会。我的同事、《纽约时报》耶路撒冷分社社长戴维·哈夫芬格（David Halbfinger）今天正在现场报道投票情况。围绕这次选举的情绪之阴沉令人震惊。比起获得投票机会的兴奋，人们更多的是一种沉重的忧虑。人们——尤其是反对派阵营，但实际上各个阶层都是如此——充满了很多担忧，在某些情况下近乎绝望，担心他们自以为熟知、成长于其中或迁居而来的以色列，正处于崩溃的边缘，或者正在演变成完全不同的面貌，甚至可能变成一个他们觉得自己无法在其中抚养子女的地方。在过去几年里，离开这个国家的以色列人多于移民进来的人数，并且有许多讨论和担忧认为，根据选举的结果，这种离开的趋势可能会加速。
Original English It is election day in Israel. The first national election since the Hamasled attacks on October 7th, which upended life there and ignited Israel's devastating war in Gaza. Many in the country view today as the most consequential vote in Israel's history as people decide between two blocks offering very different visions for the future. On one side is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is seeking reelection as the leader of the most far-right government Israel's ever had. His coalition offers the promise of a more religious Israel with an ever tighter grip over the West Bank and Gaza. On the other side is a coalition of opposition parties loosely led by Gaddy Eisenhot, a former Israeli military chief of staff whose son was killed in the Gaza war. That coalition is painting the vote today as the last chance to preserve democracy in Israel and pull the country back from becoming a pariah state, isolated internationally. My colleague David Halfinger, who is the Times bureau chief in Jerusalem, is on the ground today covering the voting. It's striking how dark the mood has been around this election. It's more of like a grim apprehensiveness than it is excitement about getting the chance to vote. People, particularly in the opposition, but really across the board, have a lot of fears, in some cases bordering on despair, that the Israel they thought they knew, that they grew up in, that they moved to, is really on the verge of collapsing or changing into something very different, perhaps into a kind of place that they might not see themselves being able to raise their children in. more Israelis have left this country than have immigrated to it in the last couple of years and there is a lot of talk and concern that those departures could accelerate depending on how the election turns out.
>> 与此同时，《纽约时报》获悉，在今天选举前夕的数周内，内塔尼亚胡曾试图推动对伊朗发动新的袭击，但他遭到了以色列国防军总参谋长的阻力。多位以色列国防官员及了解此事的人士透露，内塔尼亚胡在选前实施袭击的意图尚不明确，但重返战争状态本有可能扰乱甚至推迟投票。总理发言人未对置评请求作出回应。内塔尼亚胡幕后举动的消息传出之际，他围绕选举的言论变得越来越具有末日色彩。过去几天里，内塔尼亚胡在网上发布了一张由AI生成的特拉维夫上空蘑菇云图片，并在电视上警告称，这次投票将决定“以色列的生存”。投票将于当地时间今晚10点截止，《纽约时报》将全天提供实时动态。需要了解的关键一点是，极不可能立即就谁将担任下一任总理得出明确结论。由于以色列议会制度的运作方式，组建执政联盟可能需要数周甚至数月的时间。
Original English >> Meanwhile, the Times has learned that in the weeks leading up to today's elections, Netanyahu tried to push through a new attack on Iran, but he ran into resistance from Israel's military chief of staff. According to multiple Israeli defense officials and others briefed on the matter, Netanyahu's rationale for an attack right before the election was not clear, but a return to war could have potentially disrupted or even delayed the vote. Spokesman for the prime minister did not respond to requests for comment. News of Netanyahu's behindthe-scenes efforts come as his messaging around the election has turned increasingly apocalyptic. In the last few days, Netanyahu has posted an AI generated image of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv and warned on TV that the vote will decide quote Israel's existence. Voting will close tonight at 1000 p.m. local time and the Times will have live updates all day. The big thing to know is that there's unlikely to be a clear immediate verdict on who will be the next prime minister. Because of the way Israel's parliamentary system works, it could take weeks or even months to assemble a governing coalition.
### 美国中期选举前夕的跨性别议题 现在转向美国的选举。距离中期选举只剩一周时间了。除了将决定国会控制权的几场势均力敌的选战之外，我们也在关注全国选民正在权衡的一些重大政策议题。上周我们报道了部分州如何考虑对超级富豪征收新税。今天我们关注的是跨性别权利议题，该议题将出现在许多州的选票上。特别是在内布拉斯加州、亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州和华盛顿州这四个州，选民将对跨性别参与体育运动进行表决。而在其他一些州，选民将决定是否禁止对年轻人进行性别重置医疗。自2020年以来，已有二十多个共和党主导的州通过了类似的限制措施。不过，即便在没有任何此类表决提案的州，也出现了铺天盖地的相关宣传。
Original English Now, switching gears to elections in the US. There's just one week to go until the midterms. And beyond the very tight races that will determine control of Congress, we're also looking at some of the major policy issues that voters are weighing across the country. Last week, we covered how some states are considering new taxes on the ultra wealthy. Today, we're looking at transgender rights issues, which will be on a number of state ballots. In four states in particular, Nebraska, Arizona, Colorado, and Washington, voters will weigh in on transports participation. And in other states, voters will decide whether to ban gender transition medical treatment for young people. Since 2020, more than two dozen Republican le states have passed similar restrictions. Even in states that don't have any of these measures up for a vote, though, there's been a flood of messaging.
>> “迈克尔是个普通人。他本来准备今年不去投票。但他想起来民主党人比他的前任还要疯狂。比起他的薪水，他们更在乎自己的代词。”共和党人将焦点放在这一话题上，试图将民主党人描绘成激进且脱离实际的人。
Original English >> Michael is a normal guy. He was ready to skip voting this year. But he remembered Democrats are crazier than his ex. They care more about their pronouns than his paycheck. Republicans have focused on the topic to try and portray Democrats as radical and out of touch.
>> “带来毁灭性后果的永久性手术决定。”
Original English >> Permanent surgical decisions with devastating consequences.
>> 共和党战略人士表示，跨性别运动员参与女子体育运动或未成年人性相关治疗的问题，能有效动员他们的基本盘。卫斯理大学（Wesleyan University）的一项分析发现，上个月跨性别议题在共和党参议院候选人广告中的关注度，超过了犯罪或移民议题。跨性别倡导者表示，铺天盖地的广告助长了反跨偏见。他们还批评了一些民主党人应对共和党攻击的方式，认为他们似乎正在从早先对跨性别权利的支持中转变转向。
Original English >> GOP strategists say the questions of transgender athletes in girls sports or gender- related treatment for minors are effective for mobilizing their base. And an analysis out of Wesian University found that last month transgender issues were a bigger focus in ads for Republican Senate candidates than crime or immigration. Transgender advocates say the barrage of ads fuels anti-trans bigotry. They've also criticized how some Democrats have responded to the GOP attacks by seeming to pivot away from their earlier support of trans rights.
### Anthropic披露招股说明书拟筹备IPO 昨天，Anthropic朝着成为上市公司迈出了重大一步。在可能成为超越今年早些时候SpaceX的有史以来最大规模IPO之前，该公司为潜在投资者公布了财务招股说明书。这份招股说明书披露了几个关键情况。其一是Anthropic近期的营收增长幅度惊人。文件显示，该公司在今年上半年录得超过160亿美元的营收，比去年同期增长了14倍，主要来自使用包括Claude在内的AI软件的企业。招股文件显示的第二件事是，Anthropic为了继续满足其庞大的基础设施需求需要承担巨额支出。据《纽约时报》统计，这笔将在未来十年用于数据中心、芯片、算力等方面的资金约为8000亿美元。因此，在这场AI热潮开始四年后，Anthropic是第一家真正走向上市的公司，而这恰好发生在市场开始对投入这些AI公司及其周边基础设施的海量资金感到忐忑和焦虑的时刻。《纽约时报》负责报道硅谷的埃琳·格里菲思（Erin Griffith）表示，当Anthropic正式进入公开市场时（最快可能就在下个月），它将被视为对整个行业的一种试金石。因此，影响极为重大。如果这次IPO表现良好，它可能会为更多公司走向上市打开大门；这可能意味着市场是开放的，投资者渴望承担风险，并真正相信这些AI公司的潜力。如果表现不佳或令人失望，可能会从市场中抽离大量活力和兴奋情绪，我们可能会看到某种调整的开始。
Original English Yesterday, Anthropic took a major step toward becoming a publicly traded company. It laid out its financial perspectus for potential investors ahead of what could be the largest IPO ever, surpassing SpaceX from earlier this year. The perspectus revealed a couple of key things. One is how much Anthropics revenue has skyrocketed recently. It showed the company brought in over $16 billion in the first half of this year. That's up 14 times from the year before, largely from businesses using its AI software, including Claude. The second thing the filing showed is how much Anthropic is on the hook to spend to keep funding its intense infrastructure needs. That number, which will go to data centers, chips, computing power, etc. over the next decade is about $800 billion according to a tally by the times. So we are four years into this AI boom and anthropic is the first one that is actually going public and it's happening just at a moment when the markets are really starting to get jittery and nervous about all the money that's been dumped into these AI companies and the infrastructure around them. Aaron Griffith covers Silicon Valley for the times. She says that when Anthropic does make its market debut, which could happen as soon as next month, it will be viewed as a kind of litmus test for the whole industry. So, the stakes are very, very high. If this IPO goes well, it could open the door for a lot more companies to start going public. It could mean, you know, the markets are open and investors are eager to take on risk and really believe in the potential of these AI companies. if it goes poorly or if it's disappointing, you know, it could take a lot of the air and the excitement out of the market and we could sort of see the beginning of a correction.
埃琳表示，Anthropic昨天提交的文件中另一个独特之处在于其向投资者披露的风险因素。其首席执行官写道，任何如此强大的东西既可用于善，亦可用于恶。该公司警告称，其产品可能会引发灾难，包括失去对技术的控制以及威权主义滥用。更进一步地，文件称先进的AI系统可能会“对人类构成灾难性或生存性的风险”。
Original English Aaron says one other thing that was unique about Anthropic's filing yesterday is the risk factors it disclosed to investors. Its chief executive wrote that anything so powerful can be used for ill as well as good. And the company warned that its products could bring about disasters, including loss of control of the technology and authoritarian abuses. Going further, it said that advanced AI systems could quote pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity.
### 万圣节糖果价格上涨 最后，今年万圣节最吓人的事情可能莫过于糖果的价格了。据一家个人财务网站的数据，在过去5年中，一袋100块装糖果的平均价格上涨了超过70%。尽管大家都知道过去一年里杂货店里所有东西的价格都有所上涨，但万圣节糖果的涨幅超过了蔬菜或牛肉等物品——当然这些东西你可能不应该分发给要糖的孩子们。上涨的一个原因是巧克力的价格，这是由重创该行业的气候驱动型可可短缺造成的。幸运的是，据一位市场研究高管称，如今的孩子们更喜欢有嚼劲、浓烈偏酸的食品，比如Nerds软糖串。因此，你可以在这方面省点钱。你也可以尝试发挥创意。伊利诺伊州的一位女士告诉《纽约时报》，她准备分发方便面，1美元10包。其他人则用一次性纹身贴或便宜的小饰品来装满糖果碗。但这种压力是实实在在的。《纽约时报》采访了另一位女士，她正为今年万圣节如何在北卡罗来纳州的新社区留下好印象而苦恼。她本来想成为分发特大号糖果棒的那户人家，但鉴于现在的物价，这不可能实现了。目前她还不确定该怎么做，她说：“没人想成为发葡萄干的那家。”
Original English And finally, the scariest thing about Halloween this year might just be the price of candy. In the last 5 years, the average cost for a bag of 100 pieces has jumped more than 70%. according to one personal finance site. And while we all know the price of everything at the grocery store has risen in the past year, Halloween candy has seen bigger increases than things like vegetables or beef, which you should probably not hand out to trick-or-treaters. One reason for the jump, the price of chocolate, thanks to a climate-driven cacao shortage that's rocked the industry. Luckily, according to a market research executive, the kids these days are more into chewy, tangy, sour stuff like Nerds gummy clusters. So, you can try and save there. You can also try and get creative. One woman in Illinois told the Times she's going to be passing out packs of ramen noodles. 10 for a buck. Other people are filling out the bowl with temporary tattoos or little lowcost trinkets. But the pressures are real. The Times talked with another woman who's agonizing over how to make a good impression in her new neighborhood in North Carolina this Halloween. She would like to be the king-sized candy bar house, but thanks to prices, that's not going to happen. For now, she's not sure what she's going to do, saying, quote, "No one wants to be the Raisin House."
以上就是头条新闻。在今天的《The Daily》节目中，我们将关注联邦政府最终如何起诉得克萨斯州的移民与海关执法局（ICE）抗议者。这确实是联邦政府有史以来第一次以恐怖主义相关指控审判美国无论是右翼还是左翼的抗议者。您可以在《纽约时报》应用或任何您常听播客的平台上收听。我是特蕾西·芒福德。我们明天见。
Original English Those are the headlines. Today on the daily, a look at how the federal government ended up prosecuting ICE protesters in Texas. This was really the first time that the federal government has ever tried American protesters on either the right or the left for terrorism related charges. You can listen to that in the New York Times app or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow.