--- author: Money & Macro date: '2026-04-04' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwEYTEbfprw speaker: Money & Macro tags: - oil-disruption - fertilizer-crisis - food-inflation - supply-chain - geopolitical-risk title: 冲突阴影下的餐桌：伊朗事件如何推高全球食品价格 summary: 本视频深入分析了因霍尔木兹海峡关闭等地缘政治事件引发的石油供应中断，对全球食品价格造成的严重影响。视频阐述了燃料和关键化肥成本上升如何直接导致食品通胀，影响从谷物到蛋白质的各类商品。分析预计未来几周及数月内将出现延迟但显著的物价上涨，日常食品账单可能增加3-6%，并指出了严重依赖进口或化肥的国家所面临的脆弱性。视频最后强调了全球供应链的相互关联性以及地缘政治事件对消费者的连锁反应。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: macro-economy area: geopolitics project: [] people: [] companies_orgs: [] products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 冲突阴影下的餐桌：伊朗事件如何推高全球食品价格 近一个月的最大石油供应中断历史事件后，原油价格已飙升至每桶100美元以上。驾车成本显著增加，然而，这仅仅是开始，情况将变得更为严峻。正如2022年乌克兰能源危机之后食品账单飙升一样，当前的危机同样将重创您的食品支出。事实上，一些化肥价格已上涨超过50%。但由于这将影响数周或数月后的收成，与加油站的即时影响不同，您将在稍晚的钱包里感受到这场危机的冲击。那么，何时会感受到物价上涨？哪些食品风险最高？这场食品危机究竟有多严重？
Original English Okay, it's been a month since the largest oil  supply disruption in history and brand crude oil   prices are now well over $100 per barrel.  Driving your car has already become very,   very expensive indeed. But sadly, I'm here to tell  you it's going to get quite a bit worse. You see,   just as when after the 2022 Ukraine energy crisis,  your food bill at the grocery store skyrocketed,   this crisis will sadly do the same. Indeed, some  fertilizer prices are already up by well over 50%.   But because this will only affect harvests in a  couple of weeks or months, unlike at the gas pump,   you will only start feeling this crisis in your  wallet later. So, when can you expect things   to get more expensive? What types of food are  most at risk? And especially, how bad is this   food crisis going to get? Hey, I'm Yuri. I have a  PhD in economics. And in today's money and macro   briefing, I will answer all of these questions. 
### 霍尔木兹海峡：全球食品价格的关键节点 在深入探讨这些问题之前，我们必须快速回顾霍尔木兹海峡为何对全球食品价格至关重要。尽管乌克兰常被称为“欧洲粮仓”，但据我所知，沙漠腹地并非农作物主产区。那么，为何霍尔木兹海峡对全球食品价格如此关键？简而言之，这涉及到四种滞留于波斯湾的船只类型。第一类是运载石油的船只，它们为全球农场提供动力。第二类主要从卡塔尔运输天然气的船只。第三类是向摩洛哥等地的化肥厂运送硫磺的船只。最后，第四类是运输约占全球化肥供应三分之一的船只。这四类船只的运输状况将通过以下方式影响您的食品杂货价格： 首先，燃油成本是机械化农场的主要成本之一，同时对食品运输至超市也至关重要。其次，从宏观层面看，化肥主要分为三大类：氮肥、磷肥和钾肥。其中，钾肥受影响较小。然而，氮肥的生产依赖天然气，欧洲和印度的氮肥厂严重依赖海湾地区廉价的天然气进口。因此，它们目前面临更高的生产成本，这将直接导致农民购买化肥的价格上涨，最终推高食品价格。第三，为使情况雪上加霜，约44%的世界硫磺出口需经霍尔木兹海峡，硫磺是摩洛哥等地生产磷肥的关键成分。这意味着化肥生产商将面临更高的成本，转化为更高的化肥价格出售给农民。最后，该地区不仅为其他地方的化肥厂提供原材料，沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔和伊朗本身也是尿素等氮基化肥的主要出口国，占全球贸易的约三分之一。因此，此次封锁已大致移除了全球市场上约20%的即用型化肥。 此外，农业是一个竞争极其激烈的行业，农场利润率几乎为零。因此，高昂的化肥和能源价格同时出现，会立即使许多农场无利可图，迫使它们做出艰难抉择：要么以天价购买化肥并试图转嫁成本给消费者，要么减少种植面积以接受较小的收成。无论哪种选择，结果都一样——我们将面临更高的食品杂货账单。
Original English But before getting into that, we first need to   quickly review why Hormuz is so crucial for global  food prices. Because while Ukraine is famously the   grain basket of Europe, last time I checked, not  that many crops were grown in the middle of the   desert. So then, why is the Strait of Hormuz so  essential for global food prices? In a nutshell,   it's about four types of ships that are stuck in  the Persian Gulf. The first are ships carrying oil   and these are going to farms all around the world.  The second are ships carrying natural gas mainly   from Qatar. And then the third are ships carrying  sulfur to for example fertilizer plants in   Morocco. And finally the fourth are those carrying  about 1/3 of the global fertilizer supply. The way   these four types of ships will affect your grocery  prices are as follows. First, fuel costs are one   of the main costs at mechanized farms. And of  course, they're also crucial in transporting your   food to the supermarket. Second, at a high level,  there are essentially three types of fertilizers.   There are nitrogen fertilizers, phosphate,  and potach. And potach well that is largely   unaffected. However, nitrogen fertilizers are made  using natural gas and nitrogen fertilizer plants   in Europe and India rely heavily on cheap natural  gas imports from the Gulf for their production. So   right now they are facing higher production costs  which will translate of course into higher prices   for these fertilizers for farmers which will then  ultimately translate into higher food prices.   Third, to make all of that even worse, about 44%  of world sulfur exports pass through the straight   of Hormuz, which is a major component needed  to make phosphate fertilizers in places like   especially Morocco. So again they will face higher  costs to make fertilizers which will be translated   into higher fertilizer prices for farmers all  over the world. Finally this region does not only   provide inputs for fertilizer factories elsewhere.  Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran itself are also three   of the top exporters of nitrogen-based fertilizers  like urea accounting for around 1/3 of global   trade. So the blockade has basically removed  around 20% of ready-to-use fertilizers from global   markets. And then to make matters even worse,  farming is an extremely competitive business.   Farms have almost zero profit margins. So  higher fertilizer and higher energy prices   at the same time. It immediately makes a lot  of farms unprofitable, meaning that they will   have to make difficult decisions. They can buy  fertilizer at astronomical prices and try to pass   the increased costs onto the consumer or they can  plant less and accept a smaller harvest that year.   All roads lead to the same outcome, which  is a higher grocery bill for all of us. So,  
### 食品价格上涨的时间表：从数周到数月 关于食品价格何时开始上涨，这个问题非常棘手。您会发现，这三种化肥的受影响程度并不相同，但它们大多在作物生长的不同阶段被一起使用。而全球作物生长又发生在不同的季节。更复杂的是，全球作物生长周期遍布不同时区。因此，我们没有试图自己建模，而是参考了**食品系统专家**（如**Raj Patel**）的看法。根据他的观点，霍尔木兹海峡关闭的时机，结合全球各地的不同播种季节，实际上创造了一个可预测的食品价格通胀时间线。 若我们关注谷物和面包价格，上涨将在数周内显现。对于鸡蛋和乳制品，则需要数月。最终，大约五个月后，您将开始看到所谓的“蛋白质峰值”，意味着猪肉和肉鸡价格将显著上涨，因为玉米和其他饲料成本的上升，而这些是它们的饲料来源，届时将不再负担得起。
Original English food price inflation, when can we expect prices   to start going up? Answering this question is   very tricky indeed. You see, these three types  of fertilizers are not all affected the same, but   they are mostly used together at different stages  of the crop-growing process. And crop growing   happens globally in different seasons. And to  make matters even more complicated, crop growing   happens globally in different seasons. Therefore,  instead of trying to model this ourselves, we have   relied on food system experts like Raj Patel  to give us an idea. And according to him, the   current timing of the closure of the straight of  Hormuz and different planting seasons all across   the world actually creates a predictable timeline  of food price inflation. If we look at grains and   bread prices for example, it's a matter of weeks.  Then if we look at products like egg and dairy,   it's a matter of months. And finally, after about  five months, we will start seeing the so-called   protein spike, which means that pork and broiler  chickens will become significantly more expensive   because the corn and other feed stock prices will  go up and these are used to feed them and so that   will no longer be affordable. Yes, that sounds 
### 量化通胀冲击：食品账单的潜在增长 这听起来确实相当令人担忧。但这对您的食品杂货账单意味着什么？因为您购买的不仅仅是这些产品。食品价格会上涨多少？同样，由于全球食品供应链的复杂性，我们再次依赖专家预测，这些预测差异可能很大，并且当然很大程度上取决于两个因素：第一，您身处世界的哪个角落；第二，冲突将持续多久。 根据英国食品分销研究所（UK's Institute of Grocery Distribution）的数据，如果供应中断持续数月，仅能源成本上升就可能导致食品通胀增加约1个百分点。如果中断持续更长时间，且油价上涨150%，天然气价格上涨250%，那么仅能源成本就可能使英国食品通胀上升约2.5个百分点。然而，这仅仅是能源成本。在英国，大多数农民已为来年锁定了化肥价格。如果您居住在一个没有这样操作的国家，根据 **Stone X** 的数据，化肥冲击可能额外增加2至4个百分点的食品通胀。值得注意的是，这尚未考虑不断上涨的利率，而利率也将极大地影响农民。 撇开这些不谈，平均而言，这场危机很可能——尽管这一点仍非常不确定——导致年底的食品杂货账单比预期高出约3%至6%。这意味着，如果您的食品杂货账单本已因高通胀预期上涨3%，那么战争可能会将增幅推高得多。您的总食品账单现在可能上涨6%至9%。如此巨大的年度增长尤其可能发生，如果各国效仿中国禁止化肥出口以保护本国消费者。在这种情况下，某些国家的食品价格可能会上涨更多。当然，很大程度上将取决于农业季节以及您政府的反应。他们可能会决定补贴食品价格。
Original English rather scary. But what does it mean for your   grocery bill? Because you don't only buy these  products. How much will food prices go up? Again,   because of the complexity of global food supply  chains, we have relied on expert predictions here,   which can vary quite a bit and will of course  depend heavily on two other things. Number one,   where you are in the world. Some countries will be  hit harder than others, and number two, how long   the war will last. According to the UK's Institute  of Grocery Distribution, if the disruption lasts a   few months, food inflation would increase by  roughly 1 percentage point due to the rising   energy costs alone. But if it lasts longer and  if oil prices go up by 150% and gas by 250,   food inflation purely due to energy could rise by  about 2.5 percentage points in the UK. However,   that is just energy because in the UK most farmers  have already locked in fertilizer prices for the   upcoming year. If you live in a country where  they did not do that, then according to Stone X,   fertilizer shocks could add up to two to four  percentage points extra to food inflation. Now,   notably, this does not take into account yet  rising interest rates, which will also greatly   affect farmers. That aside, on average, the  crisis will likely lead, and this is still very   uncertain, to a grocery bill that is about 3 to 6%  higher by the end of the year. So, what this means   is that if your groceries were already expected  to rise by 3%, because there was already high   food inflation, the war could push that increase  much higher. Your total food bill could now go up   by 6 to 9% instead. And such a massive increase in  just a year could especially happen if countries   follow China in banning fertilizer exports  to protect their own consumers. In that case,   food prices may rise quite a lot more in certain  countries. But of course, a lot of that will  
### 全球脆弱性评估：哪些国家面临最严重风险？ 那么，哪些国家最为脆弱？我们尚不完全清楚，但可以大致了解：根据**联合国（UN）**的评估，一些最脆弱的国家包括那些季节性时机非常不利的国家。例如，**斯里兰卡**正处于Maha水稻收获季。**孟加拉国**也将面临严峻问题，因为他们正迎来关键的boro水稻季节。**印度**也因卡里夫（rabi）季节前国内化肥产量下降而面临重大挑战。 另一类可能陷入严重困境的国家是那些严重依赖食品进口的国家，例如**埃及**，它以极度依赖小麦进口而闻名，还有**苏丹**，该国早已面临严峻的粮食不安全危机。其他高度脆弱的国家包括化肥进口国，例如东非国家，以及至关重要的**巴西**。巴西已成为世界主要的食品出口国之一，但却高度依赖化肥进口。如果巴西国内价格被推高，那么全球范围内的肉类、谷物和基本食品价格也将随之攀升。
Original English depend on the agricultural season and on how   your government will react. They may decide to   subsidize food prices. So which countries are the  most vulnerable? We don't know fully, but just to   get an idea, according to the UN, some of the most  vulnerable nations right now are those where the   seasonal timing is very bad. Like in particularly  Sri Lanka where the Maha rice harvest is underway.   In Bangladesh, there will also be big problems  because they have the critical boro rice season.   India also faces big problems because of reduced  domestic fertilizer productions ahead of the car   reef season. Another set of countries that could  be in serious serious trouble are those that rely   heavily on food imports where for example Egypt  is famously very much reliant on wheat imports and   already also Sudan which already has a massive  food insecurity crisis. Other countries that   are very vulnerable are fertilizer importers such  as for example the East African nations and also   very crucially Brazil which has become one of the  biggest food exporters in the world but is highly   highly reliant on fertilizer imports and if prices  in Brazil are driven up then the cost of meat,   grains and basic staples everywhere will soon  follow. So in conclusion, to me this fertilizer  
### 结论：全球经济的多重危机与赞助商洞察 总而言之，这场化肥危机着实凸显了全球经济正面临一场多重危机，其根源在于美以对伊朗的袭击以及随之而来的霍尔木兹海峡的关闭。我已经在另一期视频中讨论了直接的能源市场影响，以及对海湾经济体的具体影响。我计划在另一期视频中详细探讨其对新兴市场的更广泛经济影响，因为正如本视频所见，它们尤为脆弱，并且严重依赖能源进口及海湾资金。说实话，这些国家的前景相当黯淡。 如果您还没有看过我其他的视频，请务必去看看。如果您认为还有我尚未提及的其他角度，例如航空危机、俄罗斯的视角、欧洲、美国等，请在下方评论区告诉我您想看的内容。同时，如果您想深入了解，我强烈推荐您查看我们的广告赞助商——**《经济学人》（The Economist）**的精彩分析。我总是会查阅他们的内容来研究我的视频。例如，他们关于俄乌战争如何导致化肥价格飙升的报道，极大地帮助我理解了区域性中断如何迅速波及全球供应链。同时，他们也深入探讨了一些鲜为人知但引人入胜的动态，例如伊朗企业如何发展出令人惊讶的创造性方式来规避制裁，即使在像蔬菜出口这样平凡的领域。如果您想更直接地了解伊朗战争可能对能源市场和更广泛经济意味着什么，他们还有一个播客节目对此进行了清晰的分解，我将在评论区提供链接。 正如这些例子所示，《经济学人》提供的见解能帮助您洞察大局，独立思考。这就是为什么我几乎总是依赖他们的分析进行研究，这也是为什么我强烈推荐您订阅。事实上，我很高兴地告诉您，他们目前为“Money and Macro”观众提供高达35%的独家折扣。无论您是喜欢《经济学人》App上的日常新闻，还是像我一样，喜欢在周末一边喝咖啡一边阅读印刷版来了解全球经济动态，您都能时刻掌握最新的全球发展，并支持那些重视事实信息、诚信和独立视角的报道。所以，千万不要错过。立即点击下方描述或置顶评论中的链接，或访问economist.com/moneymackro，即可获得您专享的35%折扣。
Original English crisis really highlights that the global economy   is facing a multi crisis due to the US-Israel   attack on Iran and consequent closure of the  strait of Hormuz. Now I've already talked about   the direct energy market impact in another video.  I've talked about the impact on Gulf economies in   particular and I'm planning to make another video  soon to highlight the broader economic impact on   emerging markets because as we've seen in this  video they are especially vulnerable and add   to that they that they rely heavily on energy  imports and also on Gulf money. Honestly, it's   looking really bad for a lot of these countries.  Now, if you have not seen my other videos yet,   go check them out. And if there is another angle  that I have not mentioned yet, like the airline   crisis, Russia's perspective, Europe, the US, let  me know what you want to see next in the comments   below. And in the meantime, if you want to dig  deeper, I highly recommend you check out the   excellent analysis by our advertising sponsor,  The Economist, which I always check out for the   research process of my video. For example, their  coverage of how the Russia-Ukraine wars sent and   fertilizer prices soaring really helped me  understand how quickly disruptions in one   region can cascade through global supply chains.  At the same time, they also dig into lesser-known   but fascinating dynamics like how Iranian  firms have developed surprisingly creative   ways to bypass sanctions even in something as  mundane as vegetable exports. And if you want   a more direct look at what an Iran war could mean  for energy markets and the wider economy, they've   also got a podcast episode that breaks that down  all clearly that I will link in the comments. As   these examples show, The Economist delivers  insights that help you see the bigger picture   and think for yourself. This is why I almost  always rely on their analysis for my research,   and it's why I highly recommend you subscribe.  Indeed, I'm excited to say that they are offering   a special 35% discount for money and macro  viewers right now. Whether you prefer their daily   journalism in the Economist app or you're like  me and enjoy catching up on the global economy   over the weekend with a cup of coffee and the  print edition, you'll always stay on top of the   latest global developments and support journalism  that values factual information, integrity, and   an independent point of view. So, don't miss out.  Click the link in the description or top comment   below or head over to economist.com/moneymackro  to claim your exclusive 35% discount today.