--- author: New York Times Podcasts date: '2026-11-04' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfYuvCcw5ho speaker: New York Times Podcasts tags: - us-midterms - electoral-politics - party-coalition - political-realignment title: 纽约时报The Daily：民主党中期选举全面大胜，两党格局迎来历史性重组 summary: 在本次中期选举中，民主党取得压倒性胜利，同时翻盘参众两院。时报记者与分析师深入探讨了选举夜的战况、特朗普执政与通胀等经济民生对选民的影响、共和党传统联盟的解体，以及新一代政治人物崛起对未来两党格局的重塑。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: politics-society area: society-thinking project: [] people: - Donald J. Trump - Michael Barbaro - Nate Cohn - Lisa Lerer - Shane Goldmacher companies_orgs: - The New York Times - Democratic Party - Republican Party products_models: [] media_books: - The Daily status: evergreen --- ### 选举夜的蓝色风暴与胜利演说 我们刚刚夺回了德克萨斯州。 [欢呼声]
Original English We just took back Texas. [cheering]
>> 所以，南卡罗来纳州，我想我们刚刚创造了历史。 [欢呼声]
Original English >> So, South Carolina, I think we just made some history. [cheering]
>> 非常感谢你们，缅因州。[音乐] 工薪阶层做到了。
Original English >> Thank you so much, Maine. [music] Working people did it.
>> 爱荷华州，我们证明了不可能的事情变成了可能。
Original English >> Iowa, we have proven that the impossible was possible.
>> 这里是《纽约时报》，[音乐] 我是迈克尔·巴巴罗（Michael Barbaro）。这是《The Daily》。 周二晚上，[音乐] 民调所预测的、总统不受欢迎度所预示的蓝色浪潮，[音乐] 以非凡的势头席卷了全美，民主党一举翻转了众议院和参议院的控制权。
Original English >> From the New York Times, [music] I'm Michael Bubaro. This is the Daily. On Tuesday night, [music] the blue wave that polls predicted and the president's unpopularity foreshadowed landed [music] with extraordinary force across the United States as Democrats flipped control of both the House and the Senate.
我的名字叫阿卜杜勒·拉赫曼·穆罕默德（Abdul Rahman Muhammad），[欢呼声] 我非常自豪和荣幸地站在这里，作为来自伟大的密歇根州的当选参议员。
Original English My name is Abdul Rahman Muhammad [cheering] and I am so proud and honored to stand here as your senator elect from the great state of Michigan.
今天，首席政治分析师内特·科恩（Nate Cohn）[音乐] 以及全国政治记者丽莎·莱勒（Lisa Lerer）和谢恩·戈德马赫（Shane Goldmacher）将带我们深入了解这一历史性的权力更迭 [音乐] 以及美国政治的新时代。在全面而决定性的胜利中，[欢呼声] 美国人民回击了失败的跛脚鸭总统唐纳德·J·特朗普的堕落、腐败与无能。[欢呼声]
Original English Today, chief political analysts Nate Conn [music] and national political correspondents Lisa Lair and Shane Goldmacher take us inside a historic shift in power [music] and a new era of American politics. In sweeping and decisive victories, [cheering] the American people have rebuked the depravity, corruption, and incompetence of the failed lame duck President Donald J. Trump. [cheering]
>> 今天是 [音乐] 11月4日，星期三。
Original English >> It's [music] Wednesday, November 4th.
>> 早上好。
Original English >> Good morning.
>> 我们就把现在算作早上了。我是说，现在是凌晨1点。凌晨1点整。
Original English >> We're counting this as morning. I mean, it's 1. It's 1:00 a.m.
>> 很早。确实很早。
Original English >> It's early. It is early.
>> 我们状态很棒。周三早晨。哦，我以为我们会——我以为我们要到凌晨3点才会录这期节目。
Original English >> We're doing great. Wednesday morning. Oh, I thought we would be I thought we'd be taping this at 3:00 in the morning.
>> 是啊，我也是。
Original English >> Yeah, me too.
>> 是的。
Original English >> Yeah.
>> 今晚的结果甚至不需要拖过凌晨1点，一个小时，一个小时。结果如此重大、如此具有决定性，而且出得如此之快。呃，我们要开始了吗？
Original English >> This night required no later than 1:00 a.m. an hour an hour. So big and so decisive and so quick was the result. Uh, should we get started?
>> 开始吧。
Original English >> Let's.
### 海啸、野火与严惩：如何定义这场选举 >> 好的。内特，
Original English >> All right. Nate,
>> 迈克尔，
Original English >> Michael,
>> 丽莎，谢谢你们。
Original English >> Lisa, thank you.
>> 嗨。
Original English >> Hi,
>> 内特，帮我填个空。今晚是什么？
Original English >> Nate. Fill in the blank for me. Tonight was what?
>> 一场海啸。
Original English >> A tsunami.
>> 一场蓝色海啸。
Original English >> A blue tsunami.
>> 一场蓝色海啸。这是自至少1976年以来在全国普选票中取得的最大胜利——
Original English >> A blue tsunami. It's the largest victory in the national popular vote since at least 1976
>> 在中期选举中？
Original English >> in a midterm.
>> 在任何国会选举中。
Original English >> In any congressional election.
>> 嗯。
Original English >> Mhm.
>> 民主党将在参议院赢得至少54个席位，包括至少5个总统在上届选举中以两位数优势赢下的席位。从来没有任何一个政党能翻转这么多原本在对方手中如此稳固的席位。而且就我查证所及，我一直查到了1974年，我本可以查得更远，但这在我看来已经足够久远了。
Original English >> The Democrats will win at least 54 seats in the Senate, including at least five seats that the president won by double digits in the last election. No party has managed to flip so many seats that are so safely in the other side's hands. And as far back as I looked, and I went back to 1974, I could have gone further, but that seemed far enough to me.
>> 所以，这太重大了。丽莎，今晚是什么？
Original English >> So, this is big, Lisa. Tonight was what?
>> 今晚是一场席卷全国的原野大火。一场野火。我……我只是不太想用水来打比方了。
Original English >> Tonight was a prairie fire that just swept the nation. A wildfire. I I'm just over the water analogies.
>> 是的，内特周二在《Daily》节目里把水打的比方用到极致了。
Original English >> Yeah, Nate Nate tortured it on Tuesdays daily.
>> 内特用那个比喻走了一段漫长的旅程。我想我们现在可以转向火了。我可以接受火。
Original English >> Nate went on a long journey with it. And I think we'll go to fire now. I can go on fire.
>> 是的。好的。我想，但我也认为水无法捕捉到美国人对所有这些物价、汽油价格、住房价格以及其他一切的愤怒程度。所以感觉就像——
Original English >> Yeah. Okay. I think but I also think the water doesn't capture the level of anger of Americans over all these prices and gas prices and housing prices and everything else. And so it felt like
>> 一场民主党的野火。
Original English >> a democratic wildfire.
>> 一场民主党的野火。是的。
Original English >> A democratic wildfire. Yeah.
>> 谢恩，对你来说，今晚是什么？
Original English >> Shane, tonight was for you.
>> 我认为这是一场惩罚。我认为你看到了内特所描述的那种彻底性，而这已经不再仅仅关乎个别民主党候选人，甚至不再关乎民主党本身。这是对特朗普总统及其施政方式，以及他的政党在过去两年里对他的施政方式彻底俯首称臣的一种反应和唾弃。
Original English >> I think it was a punishment. I think that you see the kind of thorowness that Nate is describing and it becomes less about the individual Democratic candidates or even the Democratic party. This is a reaction and a rejection of President Trump and his approach and his party's complete bended knee to his approach for the last two years.
>> 总结来说，就是一次结结实实的当头棒喝与惩罚。
Original English >> In summary, a big old spanking punishment.
### 关键战役复盘：从南卡、德州到堪萨斯 >> 是的。好的。我想谈谈这场海啸、野火或惩罚整晚是如何以及在哪里展开的，因为这其中有着相当戏剧性的时间线和起伏轨迹。内特，你在周二晚上是什么时候意识到正在发生什么的？
Original English >> Yeah. Okay. I want to talk about where and how this tsunami, wildfire, punishment unfolded throughout the night because there was quite a dramatic chronology and arc to it. Nate, when did you realize what was happening on Tuesday night?
>> 嗯，很明显民主党人立刻就超常发挥了，甚至在佛罗里达州这样的地方也是如此——
Original English >> Well, it was clear Democrats were overperforming immediately, even in states like Florida
>> 在那里，一名民主党社会主义者整晚都在和一个共和党人胶着并跑，而且是在一个非常深红的州。
Original English >> where a Democratic socialist was neck andneck throughout the night with a Republican in a really red state.
>> 没错。但佛罗里达州以前也曾出现过胶着局面。民调显示佛罗里达可能会很胶着。而真正让我意识到我们迎来的不仅是一场大蓝潮、而是一场海啸或野火的时刻，是在那之后不久，大概在7点20分左右。当时在南卡罗来纳州——这个州当然被认为具有一定竞争性，但很少有人真正相信它有可能翻蓝——那里的早期计票明显好于民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯（Annie Andrews）获胜所需的票数。那位参议员候选人——
Original English >> That's right. But Florida's been close before. polls showed that Florida could be close. The thing that told me that we weren't just going to have a big blue wave, but a tsunami or a wildfire, was not too long after that, at maybe 7:20, when in South Carolina, a state that was certainly thought to be competitive, but very few people really believed would be likely to flip Democratic when the early vote was just plainly better for Democrat Annie Andrews, then she needed to win. the Senate candidate,
>> 参议员候选人，民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯。
Original English >> the Senate candidate, Democrat Annie Andrews.
>> 这意味着我们看到的民主党不仅是在赢得我们过去几个月一直在讨论的那些州，比如俄亥俄州，甚至是德克萨斯州或堪萨斯州，而是超出了那一梯队，延伸到了像南卡罗来纳州这样的地方。而且不仅是——
Original English >> And that meant that we were looking at Democrats not merely winning the states that we had been talking about for the last few months, like Ohio and even Texas or Kansas, but another tier beyond that like South Carolina. And not just
>> 那些曾经几乎难以想象的、特朗普净胜10点、15点的深红州的外缘边界，
Original English >> the outer limits of Trump plus 10 plus 15 red states that once were nearly conceivable,
>> 在南卡罗来纳州的情况下接近20点。
Original English >> nearly 20 in South Carolina's case.
>> 特朗普在南卡罗来纳州曾净胜20点。
Original English >> Trump was plus 20 in South Carolina.
>> 我觉得他当时没赢到20点，但很接近了。大概是18点。而在这里，一位民主党——
Original English >> I don't think he was plus 20, but he was close. Maybe 18. And here a Democratic
>> 而且赢了下来——
Original English >> and was going to win
>> 不仅获胜，而且胜得游刃有余。她以将近5个百分点的优势赢了。
Original English >> and didn't just prevail but prevailed with room to spare. She won by nearly five points.
>> 那太惊人了。在对唐纳德·特朗普的唾弃这个主题上，共和党候选人达琳·格雷厄姆（Darlene Graham）基本上是由唐纳德·特朗普钦点来接替她哥哥林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）的。她在这场选举中最大的原罪就是她是总统钦点的人，而这并不是这个国家想要支持的。
Original English >> That is extraordinary. And on the topic of a repudiation of Donald Trump, the Republican candidate Darlene Graham who was essentially anointed by Donald Trump to replace her brother Lindsey Graham. Her greatest sin in this election is that she was anointed by the president and that is not what the country was looking to support.
>> 没错。通常在像南卡罗来纳州这样的红州，特朗普作为造王者就宣告了对话的开始与结束。在这个案例中，情况根本不是这样。它似乎适得其反了。谢恩，在很多共和党落败、民主党获胜的关键参议院席位角逐中，情况也是如此，对吧？我的意思是，对于像我这样喜欢深入研究竞选策略和决策的政治迷和政治记者来说，坏消息是这里其实只有一个故事，那就是这个国家唾弃了特朗普和共和党人的故事。它相当简单，这就是为什么最终会在德克萨斯州可能输掉接近两位数的原因。这就是为什么在南卡罗来纳州会出现内特所说的如此惊人的败选差距。这就是为什么在将近一百年里第一次迎来来自堪萨斯州的新参议员，而且你——
Original English >> Right. Usually in a red state like South Carolina, Trump as kingmaker is the beginning and the end of the conversation. In this case, that wasn't the story at all. It seemed to backfire. And that was the case, right, Shane? In many of these key Senate races where the Republicans lost and the Democrats prevailed. I mean, the bad news for me as a political junkie and a political reporter who loves to dive into like how the races were run and what were the decisions and it there's just one story here and it's a story of the country rejecting Trump and Republicans and it's pretty simple and that's how you end up losing in Texas by potentially close to double digits. It's how you lose by the remarkable margin that Nate's talking about in South Carolina. It's how you get a new senator from Kansas for the first time in nearly a hundred years and you
>> 一位民主党——
Original English >> a Democratic
>> 堪萨斯州的民主党参议员，这也是为什么把大概是缅因州最持久的温和派共和党人给赶下台的原因。
Original English >> Democratic senator in Kansas and it's how you oust probably the most enduring moderate Republican in Maine.
>> 谢恩，我想让你把注意力在德克萨斯州上多停留片刻，因为在这个节目里，我们曾长期争论詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）真正取得胜利的可能性到底有多大。而他不仅取得了胜利，而且胜利的规模甚至有点令人难以置信。
Original English >> Let me have you just focus for a moment longer on Texas Shane because for the longest time on this show we debated how real the possibility was that James Terrier could actually pull off a victory there. And he not only pulled off a victory, he pulled off a victory whose scale is a little bit hard to comprehend.
>> 是的。你在那里的区域选票转向中看到了我们讨论过的事情的彻底逆转，也就是拉美裔倒向特朗普的趋势。它又转回到了民主党这边，甚至幅度更大。你看到他以一种几乎令人难以置信的方式获胜。是的，我们曾讨论过他的对手肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）是一个特别弱的共和党候选人，作为州总检察长，他面临着一系列丑闻。但你还看到，不仅是塔拉里科赢了，民主党州长候选人吉娜·伊诺霍萨（Gina Hinojosa）还击败了德克萨斯州政坛的长青人物。担任州长十多年的格雷格·阿博特（Greg Abbott）下台了。因此，民主党不仅拿下了一个参议院席位，还控制了州长办公室。
Original English >> Yeah. You see in the regional shifts there a complete reversal of things that we've talked about, which is the Latino shift toward Trump. It went back to the Democrats and even more. You see him winning in a way that yeah was basically unfathomable. And yes, we've talked that his opponent, Ken Paxton, was a particularly weak Republican candidate, the state attorney general, who has faced a series of scandals. But what you also see is that it wasn't just Terriica winning, but the Democratic candidate for governor, Gina Hinosa, who beat a fixture of Texas politics. Greg Abbott, who's been governor for more than a decade, is out of power. And so Democrats don't just have a Senate seat, they control the governor's office.
>> 是的。我认为这些结果向我们展示了这次风潮比任何单个候选人都要广泛得多。胜利的规模向你表明，这与帕克斯顿无关，也与罗杰·马歇尔（Roger Marshall）无关——马歇尔在堪萨斯州并不是一个特别——
Original English >> Yeah. And I think that what those results show us is how much broader this is than any individual candidate. The scale of the wins shows you that this is not about Paxton and it's not about Roger Marshall who wasn't a particularly
>> 强势的候选人。你知道，这与任何单个共和党人都无关。这完全是一场全面的唾弃。
Original English >> strong candidate in Kansas. You know, it's not about any individual Republican. It is just this wholesale repudiation.
>> 我的意思是，德克萨斯州重新划分国会选区，原本正是为了选出更多共和党人，尤其是沿着边境一带。现在德克萨斯州与墨西哥的整条边界都将由民主党人代表，包括赢下了其中一个原本被认为是可望而不可即、根本没人预料到他们会去竞争的选区的民主党人。[轻哧] 在那里诞生了一位新的民主党国会议员。让我在此刻为听众摆出一些数字。内特，民主党已经赢下了多少个参议院席位？然后我想把话题转给谢恩和丽莎，看看众议院的情况，之后我们再聊聊全国的一些州长选举。参议院，内特——
Original English >> I mean, Texas redrrew its congressional districts specifically to elect more Republicans and specifically all along the border. The entire Texas border with Mexico is going to be represented by Democrats, including one who won one of those districts that was just a reach that no one expected them to even be competing in. [snorts] And there it has a new Congress member who's a Democrat. Let me just put some math forward for the listener at this hour. Nate, Democrats have won how many Senate seats? And then I want to turn Shane and Lisa over to where things stand in the House before we then talk about some of the governor's races around the country too. Senate Nate,
### 参众两院与全国普选票盘点 >> 截至目前，民主党拥有54个席位。他们赢下了北卡罗来纳州、德克萨斯州、俄亥俄州、爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、缅因州，我想这达到了我所需要的数字，但我可能还记漏了另一个。
Original English >> the Democrats have 54 seats at this hour. They won North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and I think that gets me to the number I need, but I might be remembering another one.
>> 尚未完全宣布结果，但趋势明朗——
Original English >> Not quite called yet, but trending
>> 还有，呃——
Original English >> and um
>> 还有阿拉斯加州，两个月后再来找我们确认吧。
Original English >> and Alaska, check back with us in two months.
>> 是的，阿拉斯加州。我们过一阵子才会知道结果。同样值得注意的是，此时此刻密西西比州的结果我们可能也得过一阵子才知道——
Original English >> Yeah, Alaska. We'll find out in out in a while. And it's also worth noting we may find out in a while about Mississippi at this hour
>> 那里的选情基本上平手，而在过去，临时选票向来倾向于民主党——
Original English >> where the race is essentially tied and where in the past provisional ballots have leaned Democratic
>> 因此，我认为我有理由说，民主党人实际上也可能翻转那个州。如果从现在开始一切都顺应他们的势头，民主党在参议院将拥有56个席位——
Original English >> and therefore I think I could make an argument that the Democrat could realistically flip that state as well which could give the Democrats if everything went their way from here 56 seats in the Senate
>> 这代表翻盘净增了多少个席位？
Original English >> which would represent flipping picking up how many seats?
>> 在这个时间点，这对我来说要数的数字有点太多了。迈克尔，[笑声] 他们翻转了7个席位。他们已经翻转了7个。他们最多可以达到9个。
Original English >> That's a lot for me to count at this hour. Michael [laughter] they've flipped seven. They have flipped seven. They could get up to 9.
>> 一个庞大的数字。谢恩，在众议院方面，请在凌晨1点38分这个时刻给我们更新一下，民主党控制众议院的情况到了什么程度？
Original English >> A huge number. Shane, in the House, just bring us at 1:38 a.m. up to date where we are with Democratic control of the House.
>> 因为播客是一种“视觉媒介”，我有一支蓝色夏比马克笔，随着各选区公布结果，我就把所有的众议院选区画圈圈出来。你会注意到——
Original English >> Because podcasts are a visual medium, I have a blue Sharpie that I circle all of the House districts as they get called. And you will notice
>> 很多蓝圈。
Original English >> a lot of blue circles.
>> 在任何有竞争的选区中，基本上各处都见不到红色圈。因此，民主党已经赢得了众议院多数席位。他们已经超过了所需的218个席位，并且正在迈向潜在的历史性大胜多数，可能是自奥巴马时代开始以来最大的多数席位——
Original English >> There are basically no red circles anywhere on any of the competitive races. And so the Democrats have won the House majority. They have surpassed the 218 seats that they need and they are on their way to potentially historically large majorities, probably the largest since the beginning of the Obama era,
>> 那当年可是经历了连续两波浪潮才达到的。
Original English >> which took two successive waves to get to.
>> 内特可能有关于全国普选票规模的最新数据，但眼下在竞争性众议院选区中，没有任何一个是民主党落后的。嗯。
Original English >> Nate may have more up-to-date numbers on the scale of the national popular vote, but there isn't a competitive House race right now where the Democrats are losing. Mhm.
>> 对此我能想到的只有一个。缅因州第二选区一直出现在我的雷达上。但当我们进演播室时——
Original English >> I can think of one for this. Main two has been on my radar. But when we entered this room,
>> 在我们的估算中，民主党在全国普选票中有望以13个百分点的优势获胜。 所以再次强调，这是自至少1976年以来的最大优势。 近些年来最高的纪录是2008年民主党在众议院普选票中以10个百分点获胜。因此，这比我这一生中见过的任何情况都要高出一个档次。
Original English >> the Democrats were favored in our estimates to win the national vote by 13 points. So again, that's the largest margin since at least 1976. The highest in recent memory was when the Democrats won by 10 in 2008 in the House vote. So this is a real notch up from anything that we've seen in in my lifetime.
### 特朗普执政联盟瓦解与经济选民的叛离 >> 我想弄明白共和党选民究竟发生了什么，就你们所能看出的而言。他们是待在家里没投票，还是反过来以我们认为的大规模转向投给了民主党？
Original English >> I want to understand what happened to Republican voters, as best you all can tell. Did they stay home or did they turn around and vote for Democrats in the huge numbers that we think they might have?
>> 答案是两者皆有。从佛罗里达州、新泽西州和内华达州等我们掌握详实数据的州来看，民主党的投票率远高于这些州近期记忆中的任何一次选举。而且从这些州以及其他州同样很清楚地看到，许多登记为共和党人且投过唐纳德·特朗普的人，这次投给了民主党候选人。退一步看，这是共和党联盟的彻底瓦解。今晚根本不存在共和党联盟。
Original English >> The answer is both. It's clear from the states where we have great data like Florida and New Jersey and Nevada, the Democrats had a much better turnout than any election in those states in recent memory. And it's also clear from the same states and other states that many people who are registered as Republicans and voted for Donald Trump voted for the Democratic candidate. Stepping back for a second, this is a total collapse of the Republican coalition. There is no Republican coalition tonight.
>> 曾有一个传统的共和党联盟，拥有富裕的大学毕业生和白领郊区选民的支持，而他们在十年前把这部分人让渡给了民主党，以换取工薪阶层选民、年轻选民和非白人选民的支持。而那个联盟，那个新的特朗普联盟，不仅抛弃了他们，甚至比以往任何时候都更加偏向民主党。我估计民主党赢得了70%以上的年轻选民。哇。
Original English >> There was an old Republican coalition that had the support of affluent college graduates and white collar suburbs that they traded away to the Democrats a decade ago in exchange for support among working-class voters and younger voters and non-white voters. And that coalition, that new Trump coalition, not only abandoned them, it's even more democratic than it's ever been before. I would guess the Democrats won 70 plus% of young voters. Wow.
>> 共和党什么都没剩下了，这就是全美版图惨败的原因。
Original English >> There is nothing left for the Republicans and that's how you get a wipeout across the map.
>> 我想聊聊爱荷华州。我知道它不像德克萨斯州那样是舞会上最耀眼的美人，但对我来说，它展现的这种联盟政治变迁太耐人寻味了。在爱荷华州，民主党赢得了州长职位、参议院席位，并翻转了四个国会席位中的三个。
Original English >> I want to talk about Iowa. I understand it's not the prettiest bell at the ball like Texas, but it to me it is so interesting of those kinds of changing coalition politics. In Iowa, you had Democrats win the governor's mansion, the Senate seat, and flip three of the four congressional seats.
>> 为什么会发生这种事？好吧，你猜怎么着？如你所知，在爱荷华州有许多——我知道你在那里待过——
Original English >> Why did that happen? Well, guess what? There's a lot of in Iowa, as you know. I know you've spent
>> 投给特朗普的农民。
Original English >> farmers who voted for Trump.
>> 反复投票给特朗普的农民，投了三次，对吧？而那些农民的底线收益一次又一次受到打击。他们受到柴油价格上涨的伤害。他们受到关税的伤害，关税让农机设备变得更加昂贵。因为伊朗战争，饲料变得更加昂贵。化肥也变得更加昂贵——
Original English >> Farmers who voted for Trump repeatedly, three times over, right? And those farmers were just their bottom line was hurt again and again. They're hurt by the increase in diesel prices. They're hurt by the tariffs, which make the equipment more expensive. The feed is more expensive because of the war in Iran. The fertilizer is more expensive
>> 因为关税。
Original English >> because of the tariffs.
>> 因为关税。特朗普总统的政策与他的联盟瓦解之间存在着如此直接的关联。你知道，我不确定人们总能看清楚这一点，对吧？我们总说总统控制不了宏观经济趋势，但他们往往因为经济好而揽功，或因为经济差而背锅。在这个案例中，实际上是特朗普总统亲手制造了导致选民反戈一击的经济环境与氛围。所以，这不仅仅是共和党联盟像内特正确指出的那样在这场选举中荡然无存。而是特朗普——正是这位一手创造了这个新共和党的人——
Original English >> Because of the tariffs. And there is just such a direct connection between President Trump's policies and the fall of his coalition. And you know, I don't know that you always see that, right? We always talk about presidents don't control macroeconomic trends, but they get credit or they're blamed for the economy. In this case, actually, President Trump did create the atmosphere on economic conditions that turned his voters against him. And so it's not only that the Republican coalition, as Nate rightfully points out, doesn't exist in these elections. It's that Trump, the guy who created this new Republican party,
>> 亲手撕碎了它。
Original English >> tore it apart
>> 通过他的政策，他要为拆散它负个人责任。这确实是一个非同寻常的政治故事。而且你知道——
Original English >> through his policies, he is personally responsible for tearing it apart. That is really a remarkable political story. And you know,
>> 能够把这个联盟组建起来曾经是一项功绩。以一种反常的方式来看，将它彻底拆毁同样是一项等量齐观的“成就”。
Original English >> it's an accomplishment to have ever put it together. It's in its own way perversely as much an accomplishment to have disassembled.
>> 当然，特朗普总统向来做事都带有歌剧般的宏大排场，对吧？他组建——
Original English >> And it's of course like the President Trump always does things in oporadic scale, right? He puts together
>> 从不做任何小打小闹的事。他做事情从不小气。再一次地，这一次他做的事情也毫不缩手缩脚。
Original English >> doesn't do anything small. He doesn't do a thing small. And yet again, this is a thing he has not done small.
>> 我的意思是，如果说德克萨斯州是今年共和党溃败的归零地，我也认为爱荷华州同样耐人寻味，因为那里是他们下一场党内提名程序的起点。下一位共和党总统候选人将需要在那个州赢得党团会议初选，而民主党刚刚在那里赢下了一切。而且——
Original English >> I mean, I think if Texas is ground zero of this year's defeat for Republicans, I also think Iowa is really interesting because it is where they're going to start their next nominating process. So, the next Republican presidential candidate is going to need to win a caucus in that state where the Democrats just won all these things. And
>> 是的，让我们明确一点。在爱荷华州，考虑到过去十年的局势发展，民主党人不可思议地赢下了一个参议院席位和州长办公室。我有漏掉什么吗？
Original English >> yeah, let's stipulate. In Iowa, Democrats improbably, given the events of the last decade, won a Senate seat and the governor's office. Am I missing anything?
>> 三个。他们翻转了三个国会席位。
Original English >> Three. They flipped three congressional seats.
>> 三个国会席位。是的。
Original English >> Three congressional seats. Yeah.
>> 所以这就是2016年特朗普取得成功的地方。那是沿密西西比河一带白人工薪阶层倒向特朗普的庞大浪潮。而现在，正如内特刚才所描述的，所有这些人都彻底倒戈了回去。所以共和党实际上不得不去到那个地方，然后面对：“好吧，我们接下来该走向何方？”——而他们刚刚在那个地方输得精光。
Original English >> And so this is where the Trump success was in 2016. This was the big white working class push toward Trump all along the Mississippi River. And now all these people have swung all the way back as Nate just described. And so the the Republican party is actually going to go to that place and be like, "Okay, where do we go from here?" where they just lost everything.
### 各州州长选举亮点：俄亥俄、爱荷华与佐治亚 >> 我觉得花一点时间看看我们在全国各地看到的一些州长选举是很有价值的。丽莎和谢恩，这些选举中哪一场让你们印象深刻？嗯，当然，俄亥俄州艾米·阿克顿（Amy Acton）与维韦克·拉马斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy）之间的竞争吸引了大量的注意力，正如我们在节目中讨论过的那则广告——
Original English >> It seems worth spending a quick moment, I think, on some of the governor's races we saw around the country. Lisa and Shane, which one of those races stand out to you? Well, of course, the race in Ohio between Amy Actton and VC Ramaswami captured a lot of attention as I know you we've talked about on this show with the ad,
>> 包括她母亲在内——
Original English >> including her mother,
>> 包括她疏远的母亲。呃，她目前领先了6个百分点，这个差距还可能扩大。还有几个百分点的选票需要清点。在爱荷华州，罗布·桑德（Rob Sand）从宣布参选那一刻起就是民主党的政治明星。作为民主党人，他试图推行许多其他候选人纷纷效仿的跨党派路线。
Original English >> including her aranged mother. Um, and she is up by right now by six points, a margin that could grow. There's a couple more points of voters that have to be counted. in Iowa, Rob Sand, who was this Democratic star from the moment he announced. He was a Democrat who attempted to run this postpartisan campaign that a lot of other candidates sort of emulated.
>> 罗布·桑德赢了。
Original English >> And Rob Sand has won.
>> 罗布·桑德赢了大约10个百分点左右。然后另一场大胜当然是在德克萨斯州，正如谢恩所指出的，吉娜·伊诺霍萨击败了格雷格·阿博特，后者真正称得上是该州共和党的支柱。你知道，这很有意思，因为在很多地方人们一直在热烈讨论分裂投票（ticket splitters）。
Original English >> Rob Sand has won by looks like 10 points or so. And then the other big win is of course in Texas where Gina Hinahosa bested Greg Abbott who as Shane pointed out is really a bastion of that state's Republican party. You know, it was interesting because a in a lot of these places there had been a lot of discussion on ticket splitters.
>> 当时的设想是，在德克萨斯州你可能会把参议院选票投给民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科，但你可能仍会把州长选票投给格雷格·阿博特——
Original English >> This was the idea that in Texas you could vote for James Helerico as a Democratic candidate for Senate, but then you still might vote for Greg Abbott as governor,
>> 对吧？而我们实际上根本没看到那种情况。我们只看到了民主党人的全面胜利。所以这再次证明了这些胜利的规模之大。我认为德克萨斯州之外最有趣的州长选举是在佐治亚州，凯莎·兰斯·博顿斯（Keisha Lance Bottoms）即将成为美国历史上首位黑人女性州长，而且她是大幅领先获胜的。政界的讨论原本一直是：哦，乔恩·奥索夫（Jon Ossoff）的胜利能不能顺带拉她一把过线？而她在过去民主党长期的摇摆州里赢得十分从容。这确实引发了佐治亚州此时此刻是否正在发生根本转变的问题，因为以前从未发生过这种情况。他轻松赢到了两位数，而她赢得从容不迫。就像德克萨斯州一样，这将极大改变一个州的整体政治面貌。
Original English >> right? And we really didn't see that. We just saw Democrats winning. So that again is just another thing that speaks to like the scale of the wins. I think the most interesting governor's race outside of Texas is in Georgia where Kesha Lance Bottoms is about to become the first black woman in American history to ever be a governor and she did it by a wide margin. The conversation in political circles had been, oh, can John Oaf's win drag her over the line? She's winning comfortably in what had been a perennial swing state for Democrats. And it really raises the question of is Georgia changing at this moment because that just hasn't happened before. He's winning by easily into the double digits and she's winning comfortably. This is going to dramatically change like Texas a state's entire complexion.
>> 嗯。
Original English >> Mhm.
### 阳光带崛起与党内路线分歧 >> 我们在这里可能有点操之过急了，但值得注意的是——
Original English >> We may be getting a little bit of ahead of ourselves here, but it is worth noting that
>> 民主党在北卡罗来纳州、佐治亚州和德克萨斯州等诸多潜在的阳光带战区表现非常出色。他们很多较弱的表现反而出现在更传统的北部白人战场州，比如明尼苏达州、密歇根州或缅因州。我并不是说他们今晚在那些州表现很糟，而且也有候选人层面的因素需要考量。但是，退一步想象一下，如果十年前我告诉别人民主党在德克萨斯州会比在密歇根州表现好得多，在北卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州会比在缅因州和明尼苏达州好得多，人们会怎么说。阳光带这里正在发生一些事情，当我们审视特朗普总统任期这一低谷时期其联盟的废墟时，这或许正是民主党未来的机遇所在。
Original English >> the Democrats did really well in a lot of potential sunb belt battleground states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas. Many of their weakest performances were in more traditional northern white battleground states like Minnesota or Michigan or Maine. And I'm not saying they did badly in those states tonight. And there are candidate factors to consider as well. But it's worth stepping back for a second and imagining what someone would have said 10 years ago if I told them that the Democrats were going to do a lot better in Texas than Michigan and North Carolina and Georgia than Maine and Minnesota. There is something happening here in the Sunb Belt and it may be where the Democratic Party's next opportunity is as we look at the wreckage of the Trump coalition at this low point in Trump's presidency.
[音乐] [音乐] 马上回来。 丽莎，你想回应内特在进广告前说的一些话。内特，如果我说错了请纠正我。似乎在东北部和中西部上游地区，一些民主党候选人的领先优势甚至胜幅都不如阳光带等地区那么大。我想知道这是不是因为在东北部、中西部上游竞选的民主党候选人往往更偏向进步派？
Original English [music] [music] We'll be right back. Lisa, you wanted to respond to something Nate said right before the break. Nate, correct me if I'm wrong. It seemed to be that in the Northeast and the upper Midwest, some of the Democratic candidates leads and even their victories were not as big as a place like the Sunb Belt. And I wonder if it's because the candidates running in the Northeast, the upper Midwest, the Democrats tended to be more progressive.
是的，我认为内特是在谈论候选人在阳光带和北部各州——明尼苏达、密歇根和缅因州——表现的差异。我认为值得指出的是，在那些州，民主党推选的是自称进步派的候选人，他们自视为党内更偏左的一翼。而在堪萨斯州、德克萨斯州和爱荷华州等地参选的候选人，则自视为超越党派偏见的中道人士。他们试图拉开自己与民主党全国品牌的距离。他们将自己塑造成中间派，塑造成希望跨党派合作的人。所以，今晚获胜的实际上是两种不同品牌路线的民主党人。我认为你所看到的正是一个宽容包并的“大帐篷”民主党，这当然是民主党一直以来所渴望并在谈论的事情，自他们——
Original English Yeah, I think Nate was talking about the difference between how candidates fared in the Sunbell and sort of these northern states, Minnesota, Michigan, and Maine. And I think it is worth pointing out that those are states where Democrats ran self-proclaimed progressives, candidates who saw themselves on the more left flank of the party. And the candidates who ran in places like Kansas and Texas and Iowa saw themselves as postpartisan. That they tried to put distance between themselves and the Democratic national brand. They cast themselves as centrists, as people who want to work across the aisle. So, you have two different brands of Democrat really who won tonight. And I think uh part of what you're seeing is a big Democratic tent, which is of course what Democrats have wanted and talked about wanting since they
>> 不搞政治路线筛选测试，让许多不同类型的民主党人在各自的参选地区参选。
Original English >> not led tests letting lots of different kinds of Democrats run for the places where they're running.
>> 但有时大帐篷下面也会引发党内激烈的内斗。因此，我认为我们将看到民主党多年来关于党的发展方向该走向何方的争论继续上演。在中期选举中，仅凭反对一个不受欢迎的总统就足够了。总统大选则是关乎国家未来的角逐，民主党需要在这些竞选中提出一个共同的愿景，我们将看到他们为这个愿景究竟应该是什么而争论不休——
Original English >> But sometimes big tents can cause big intraarty fights underneath them. So, I think we'll see a continuation of this debate that Democrats have been having at this point for many years over what the direction of their party should be in a midterm. It's enough to just run against a unpopular president. Presidential campaigns are contests about the future of the country and Democrats will need a vision, a shared vision to put forward in those races and we'll see them fight it out over what that should be over
>> 你的意思是，这场民主党的大胜基本上并不一定会解决党内任何重大的内部问题和交锋。
Original English >> the big Democratic victory you're saying basically doesn't necessarily resolve any of the big internal questions and battles
>> 在党内。我认为正在发生一场南北路线重组，今晚你可以清晰地看到，民主党在老工业中西部地区的上限更低。在俄亥俄州，谢罗德·布朗（Sherrod Brown）长期以来一直是广受欢迎的民主党人，尽管他正在夺回参议院席位，但其表现却不如南方的一些民主党候选人强劲。因此，与民主党似乎在北部中西部上游能够达到的高度相比，佐治亚州的乔恩·奥索夫展现出了更高的上限。我认为这向你透露了该党未来可能走向的一点端倪。所以我想知道，我们在这里讨论的结果，在涉及到进步派、民主社会主义者偏向中间派的这场争论中，是否会以某种方式产生倾斜，或者考虑到民主党的胜选规模，这根本不是一个合适的结论。今晚的短信交流表明所有人都在宣布胜利，对吧？左翼说我们差点在佛罗里达州推选出了一位民主社会主义者，对吧？而中间派则说：
Original English >> inside the party. I think that there is a north and south realignment happening and you can really see it tonight that the Democratic party's ceiling is lower in the old industrial Midwest in Ohio where shared Brown had been a popular Democrat forever and is retaking a seat in the Senate is not performing as strongly as some of these Democratic candidates in the South. So there seems to be a higher ceiling where John Oaf is in Georgia than where the Democrats seem to be able to reach in that upper Midwest area. And I think that tells you a little bit of where the party's future could be. So I wonder if the results that we're talking about here would in any way tip the scales when it comes to this debate about progressives, democratic, socialists in favor of the centrists or if that's just like not the right conclusion to draw given the scale of Democrat. text messages tonight would suggest that everybody is declaring victory, right? The the the left is saying we almost got a Democratic socialist in Florida, right? And the centrist are saying,
>> “看看在所有这些艰苦竞争中实际胜选的人。”因此，每个人都在宣布胜利，每个人在这样一场选举中都找到了足够的立足点来坚持自己的观点，而归根结底，这场选举的主题并不是民主党。这场选举，没错——
Original English >> "Look at all the actual people who won all of these hard braces." So, everybody's declaring victory and everybody has just enough to hang their hat on an election like this where again, the election was not about the Democrats. The election, that's right,
>> 是关于共和党的。
Original English >> was about the Republicans.
>> 这里的反向思考是：没有任何人应该沾沾自喜。他们只不过是受益于自1946年以来最不受欢迎的总统。[笑声] 这仍然是一个失信于人、选民并不会始终信任的政党。
Original English >> The contrarian take here is that no one should feel good about themselves. They're just benefiting from the least popular president since 1946. [laughter] And this is still a discredited party that voters don't trust us all the time.
>> 在我们自己的民调中有很多指标都体现了这一点，对吧？你可以看到特朗普不受欢迎。特朗普确实不受欢迎。民主党在许多议题上的数据都有所改善，最核心的是像由谁来处理经济最受信赖这样的问题，这向来非常关键，在本次选举中尤为关键。但是，当询问选民对民主党有多信任、它是太偏左还是太偏右时，他们的态度仍然相当分化。是的，选民们正在把票投给民主党候选人。但他们是在涌向全国民主党吗？我不确定我们能得出这个结论。我知道我们目前还不能得出这一结论。但今晚发生的一件事，如果你是民主党人，这似乎是一个非常重要且充满希望的迹象，那就是新一代人的崛起，特别是参议员当选人阿卜杜勒·赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）、詹姆斯·塔拉里科参议员、乔恩·奥索夫参议员等人，他们在特朗普时代崭露头角，极具数字原生代特征，竞选方式无处不在。这是五、六年前甚至没人想到的民主党未来。
Original English >> And there's plenty of indicators of that in our own polling, right, where you see that Trump is unpopular. Trump is unpopular. And Democrats have improved their numbers on a lot of issues, most centrally like who is trusted to handle the economy, which is very important always and particularly important in this election. But when voters are asked questions about, you know, how much they trust the Democratic party, is it too far the left, too far the right, they're still pretty mixed on it. Yes, voters are voting, casting their ballots for Democratic candidates. Are they flocking to the National Democratic Party? I'm not sure we can draw that. I know we can't draw that conclusion quite yet. But one thing that happened tonight that if you're a Democrat seems like a very important and hopeful sign is that a new generation of especially senator Alex a senator James Telerico a senator John Oaf a senator Abdul Elsed on and on that has come up in the Trump era they're so digitally native they're so ubiquitous in the way that they campaign this is a future of the Democratic party that no one was even thinking about five, six years ago.
### 特朗普引力陷阱与共和党的前路 >> 是的。我的意思是，现在我认为民主党拥有大量可以竞选总统的人才。这将是一场竞争激烈的角逐。他们的候选人板凳深度非常厚实。在某种程度上，这让我觉得是一个新政治时代的开端。如果你回看一下2006年——那是民主党另一个强势复苏的中期选举年份，开启了奥巴马时代，重塑了民主党。对此的反弹催生了特朗普和MAGA运动，重塑了共和党。而现在感觉我们似乎走到了那个20年周期的终点，处在一个两党都将展望新事物的时刻。民主党拥有这些新涌现的明星。共和党则必须在可能成为后特朗普时刻的开端之际，弄清楚自己究竟是谁。尽管我们总是不愿意说任何事情已经是“后特朗普”了，但现在感觉确实——
Original English >> Yeah. I mean, now I think Democrats have a a wealth of people who could run for president. It's going to be a packed race. They have a very very stocked bench of candidates. And in some ways, it feels to me like the beginning of a new political era. If you sort of look at 2006, which was another great resurgent midterm year for Democrats, ushered in this era of Obama, which remade that party. The backlash to that ushered in Trump and the MAGA movement which remade Republicans and now it feels as if we're at the end of that 20-year cycle and we're at a point where both parties are going to be looking forward to something new. Democrats have these new emerging stars. Republicans have to figure out who they are at the beginnings of what could be a postTrump moment. Although we all always hesitate to say that anything is ever post Trump, it does feel now like
>> 他是一位跛脚鸭总统。共和党人将必须找到一条前进的道路，以维系他们联盟的残余力量。所以，我确实在想我们是否正处于两党以及整个国家政治新局面的起点。
Original English >> he's a lame duck president. Republicans are going to have to find a way forward to keep what's left of their coalition together. So, I do wonder if we're sort of at the beginnings of something new for both parties and for the country's politics.
>> 这一切将总统的政党、总统的运动置于何地？今天早晨MAGA的处境如何？
Original English >> Where does this all leave the president's party, the president's movement? What is the state of MAGA this morning?
>> 今天早晨的共和党是什么状态？你知道，共和党在2016年被唐纳德·特朗普摧毁了。它围绕着他自己被重新拼装起来，而现在他是自1946年以来进入中期选举时最不受欢迎的政治人物，他的政党刚刚遭遇了半个世纪以来最惨痛的惨败。我们现在究竟处于什么境地？
Original English >> What is the Republican party this morning? You know, the Republican party was destroyed by Donald Trump in 2016. It was reassembled around himself and now he's the least popular political figure heading into a midterm since 1946 and his party just suffered the worst drubbing in a half century. Where do we stand right now at all?
>> 是的，我想到了我们在2024年之后曾多么深入地讨论过民主党发现自己陷入的深渊。即使在那个深渊中，每个人都知道他们拥有一道巨大的亮光，那就是即将到来的中期选举。今天的共和党没有那道亮光。他们面临着一场没有明确领跑者的全面开放的总统初选，在那个时刻进行重建，比起你仅仅为了阻止特朗普而团结起来要困难得多。尤其是当总统在党内仍然拥有巨大的影响力时。在我们最新的民调中，大多数共和党人仍表示他们希望看到共和党继续沿着特朗普的方向前进，尽管全美有三分之二的人非常希望共和党做出完全不同的改变。因此，在未来两年里，唐纳德·特朗普仍然是限制共和党走向新方向的巨大制约因素。
Original English >> Yeah, I think about how much we discussed the depth of the hole that the Democratic party found itself in after 2024. And even in that hole, everybody knew they had one big bright light, which was this coming midterm election. The Republican party today doesn't have that bright light. They have a wide open presidential primary without a clear leader and it's harder to rebuild at that moment than it is when you can just unite around stopping Trump. Perhaps especially when the president still has a tremendous amount of clout within his party. In our last poll, a majority of Republicans still said they wanted to see the Republican party continue in the Trump direction, even though twothirds of the country very much wants the Republican party to do something completely different. So, Donald Trump is still a huge limiting factor on the ability of the Republican party to go in a new direction in the next two years.
>> 内特，你刚才所描述的总统支持力量的这一小块残余核心，我认为长期以来我们都理解为个人崇拜。在座的各位说今晚基本上瓦解了的那个联盟，正是他在那块核心之外借用并拼凑起来的。那是建立在政策和承诺之上的。而在周二晚上，两党的许多选民都感到这些承诺没有兑现。那些政策伤害了他们。于是他们离开了他。但在核心圈子里仍然有这么一群不会离开他的人。这大概也让党内的其他人无法脱离他。或者说不是这样？这似乎是核心问题所在。
Original English >> Nate, what you just described, this nub of what's left of the president's support is what I think we've long understood to be a cult of personality. The coalition that you all at this table have said basically disintegrated tonight was what he borrowed and put together beyond that nub. And it was based on policies and promises. And on Tuesday night, a lot of voters of both parties felt that those promises were not kept. Those policies hurt them. And they moved away from him. But there still is at the core this group that won't move away from him. That probably keeps the rest of the party from being able to move away from him, too. Or no, that seems to be the central question.
>> 共和党陷入了一个非常艰难的境地。唐纳德·特朗普摧毁了我们所熟知的那个政党，并且他仍然是重力中心。每个人都被困在围绕他的轨道上，尽管现在这感觉就像是一个他们无法逃脱的政治黑洞，即便他们很想逃离。我认为总统显然已经基本上失去了他联盟的整个外围部分：所有在2024年帮助他胜选的年轻选民和非白人选民，许多在2016年、2020年帮助他胜选的白人工薪阶层选民，甚至包括一些可能支持过尼基·黑利（Nikki Haley）、早在很久以前支持过米特·罗姆尼（Mitt Romney）、一直以来都是坚定共和党人的温和派共和党人。他现在只剩下了这群极具黏性的MAGA狂热铁粉，以及绝不会考虑把票投给民主党的最铁杆共和党人。而核心问题在于，这部分人甚至可能仍然构成共和党初选选民的大多数。我的意思是——
Original English >> The Republican party is in a really tough spot. Donald Trump destroyed it as we knew it and he remains the center of gravity. Everyone is stuck in orbit around him even though it now feels like a political black hole for them that they can't escape from even though they'd love to. I I think that the president has clearly lost basically the entire periphery of his coalition. all of the young and non-white voters who put him over the top in 2024, many of the white working-class voters that put him over the top in 2020 2016, and even some of the moderate Republicans who maybe backed Nikki Haley and long before Mitt Romney who have been consistent Republicans all along and reduced him just to this core of MAGA super fans and the most consistent Republicans who would never consider voting for the Democratic party. And the core problem is that may still be a majority of the Republican primary electorate even. I mean,
>> 那些挑选共和党参选候选人的人。
Original English >> the ones picking the candidates who run as Republicans.
>> 想想今年吧。今年如果没有特朗普总统，你无法赢得共和党初选；但有了他，你又赢不了大选。
Original English >> Think about this year. You could not win a Republican primary this year without President Trump and then you could not win a general election with him.
>> 嗯。那真是一个巨大的死结难题。
Original English >> Mhm. That's a big old conundrum.
### 展望2028：万斯困境与两党的历史抉择 >> 这就是陷阱所在。朋友们，现在是凌晨2点10分。作为给你们三位的最后一个问题，我想请你们谈谈今天早晨的大疑问。我们正在进入一个新的政治格局，甚至可能是一个新的政治时代：在特朗普总统第二个也是最后一个任期的最后两年里，美国众议院和美国参议院都被民主党牢牢掌控。当我们展望未来几个月和未来两年时，你们脑海中最大的疑问是什么，谢恩？
Original English >> That's the trap. Friends, it is 2:10 a.m. and as a final question to all three of you, I want you to talk about your big questions this morning as we enter a new political landscape, maybe even a new political era in which the United States House Representatives, United States Senate are comfortably controlled by Democrats in the final two years of President Trump's second and final term. What are the big questions you have in your head as we look forward to the next few months and the next two years, Shane?
>> 我的意思是，我想知道J·D·万斯（JD Vance）会怎样。
Original English >> I mean, I want to know about JD Vance.
>> 哦，提得好。
Original English >> Oh, that's good.
>> 我认为没有人比他更淋漓尽致地体现了那种“特朗普陷阱”。
Original English >> I think that nobody encapsulates that Trump trap more.
>> 他是现任副总统，是成为下一届提名的领跑者。然而，可能没有人比J·D·万斯更难摆脱与唐纳德·特朗普的捆绑了。 他在未来几个月里该如何应对这个关头——
Original English >> He is the sitting vice president, the front runner to be the next nominee. And yet, there is probably no one who can maneuver less away from Donald Trump than JD Vance. And how does he navigate this moment
>> 在接下来的几个月里——
Original English >> in the coming months
>> 如果他像大多数人推测的那样展开竞选的话？
Original English >> if he campaigns as most people presume he will?
>> 卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）给我们上了一堂宝贵的课：当你与一个不受欢迎或走下坡路的政治人物以及你身处的现任总统紧密捆绑时，会发生什么。
Original English >> Kla Harris taught us a valuable lesson about what happens when you are the closely aligned figure to an unpopular or declining political figure and the president you're under.
>> 我认为最大的问题之一是：民主党会变成什么样？我认为十年来，他们一直是以反对特朗普为轴心组织起来的。他是他们选民最大的动员力量，这一直是作为民主党人的核心组织原则。而现在，由于我们所说的所有这些原因，特朗普的权力将逐步衰落，在我们的政治中作为凝聚动员力量的作用也会下降。这让民主党人不得不带着所有这些胜利去弄清楚：他们的政党究竟代表着什么？他们的联盟是什么？在特朗普不再是主导力量的时代，他们会变成什么样？如果他们能以一种让足够多美国人喜欢的方式回答这个问题，他们就有机会入主白宫。如果他们回答不了这个问题，在2028年想要获胜将会非常艰难。
Original English >> I think one of the big questions is what does the Democratic party become? I think for a decade they have organized themselves in opposition to Trump. He's been the biggest energizer for their voters and that's been like a central organizing principle of being a Democrat. And now for all the reasons we said, Trump is going to be declining in power, declining as an organizing force in our politics. And that leaves Democrats trying to figure out with all these winds, what does their party stand for? And what is their coalition? And who do they become in an era where Trump is no longer the dominant force? If they can answer that question in a way that enough Americans like, they have a shot at the White House. And if they cannot answer that question, it's going to be really hard to win in 2028.
>> 这是两个精彩的回答。一个针对民主党，一个针对共和党。那么让我提出一个他们试图勾勒未来时可能都会与之抗衡的背景。我很想知道是否有任何民主党人能够对国家的问题给出根本不同的答案。 我们有来自民主社会主义者的论点，认为该党基本上需要向左转。我们还有一群主流建制派民主党人，在某些方面代表了我们自奥巴马以来以各种形式听到的同一套民主党信息的延续。当我回想起2008年之后一个政党上一次真正失去公信力的时候，共和党人当时非常艰难地想要提出一些不同的东西。他们在2012年有点只是试图重新扮演里根-罗姆尼式的共和党人。最终是唐纳德·特朗普提出了关于国家问题究竟是什么的截然不同的理论，才打破了这套原本已名誉扫地的旧体制。
Original English >> Those were two great answers. And I on one for Democrats and one for Republicans. Let me offer Let me offer then the backdrop that maybe they'll both play off against as they try and chart their future. I'm interested to learn whether any Democrat offers a fundamentally different answer to what the nation's problems are. We have an argument from Democratic socialists that says the party basically needs to move to the left. And we have a bunch of mainstream establishment Democrats who in some ways represent a continuation of the same Democratic message that we've heard in various forms since Obama. And when I think back to the to the last time a party was really discredited after 2008, the Republicans really struggled to come up with something different. They kind of just tried to rerun being a Reagan Romney Republican in 2012. And it took Donald Trump coming up with a totally different theory of what the nation's problem was to break up this old system that had been kind of discredited.
>> 我不知道是否有民主党人会在2028年提出那样的理论，就像2012年共和党没有人提出来一样。但我认为，当我们进入美国政治的新时代时，总会有人拿出新的理论、新的主张和新的政策，试图解决未来几年将定义美国政治的无论什么问题。 [音乐]
Original English >> And I don't know whether a Democrat is going to come up with that in 2028, much as no one came up with it for the Republicans in 2012. But I think as we enter this new era of American politics, someone's going to come up with that new theory and new message and new policies that will try and address whatever it is that's going to define American politics in the years ahead. [music]
>> 你觉得它可能会在这个时刻发生吗？
Original English >> And you think it could happen in this moment?
>> 局势正在改变。而当局势改变时，政客与政治才会有机会做出相应的改变。[音乐] 好的，内特、谢恩和丽莎，非常感谢你们在这么深、这么早的时刻来到这里，取决于你怎么看待这个时间。感谢你们的分享。
Original English >> Things are changing. And when things change, that's when politicians and politics have the opportunity to change in response. [music] Well, Nate and Shane and Lisa, thank you for being here at this really, really late hour, early hour, depending on which way you see it. Appreciate your time.
>> 谢谢你的邀请。
Original English >> Thank you for having us.
>> 谢谢。[音乐]
Original English >> Thank you. [music]
### 特朗普电话连线：承认油价冲击与接受选举结果 >> 我现在与埃里卡·格林（Erica Green）在一起。
Original English >> I'm here with Erica Green.
>> 你好，巴巴罗先生。
Original English >> Hello, Mr.
>> 你好。周二晚上，我的同事、白宫记者埃里卡·格林和泰勒·佩格（Tyler Pager）[音乐] 与白宫里的特朗普总统通了电话，当时总统仍在消化他的政党在中期选举中遭遇的全面惨败。[音乐]
Original English >> Hi. On Tuesday night, my colleagues, White House correspondents Erica Green and Tyler [music] Pager, spoke with President Trump by phone from the White House as the president was still processing his party's [music] sweeping losses in the midterm election.
>> 我正一边聊着一边看着这些结果。[音乐] 我看到达琳输了。嗯，
Original English >> I'm just looking at these results as I'm talking about. [music] I see that Darlene lost. Well,
>> 包括南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员候选人达琳·格雷厄姆的败选。[音乐]
Original English >> including the defeat of the Republican Senate candidate in South Carolina, Darlene Graham. [music]
>> 太不可思议了。你觉得如果林赛参选的话会怎么样？ 特朗普承认，由于他对伊朗发动的战争导致汽油价格上涨，令选民感到不满。[音乐]
Original English >> That's amazing. How do you think Lindsay would have done if he ran? Trump conceded that higher gas prices from the war he launched against Iran had upset voters. [music]
>> 他们不在乎打伊朗，但他们可能不高兴了。他们对油价飙升不满意。[音乐] 所以，你知道，这就是那种情况之一。但是，
Original English >> They don't mind the Iran, but they probably weren't happy. They weren't happy with the outrage. [music] So, you know, it's one of those things. But,
>> 但他坚持认为，如果是他本人出现在选票上，共和党在选举中的表现会好得多。
Original English >> but he insisted that had he himself been on the ballot. Republicans would have performed far better in the election.
>> 所有人都在说同样的话。我没在选票上。两年前，当我在选票上时，我们在所有这些州都大赢特赢。 埃里卡就笼罩在中期选举之上的最大问题之一追问了特朗普。
Original English >> Everybody's saying the same thing. I wasn't on the ballot. Two years ago, when I'm on the ballot, we won all of these states by a lot. Erica pushed Trump on one of the biggest questions hanging over the midterms.
>> 我只是想确认一下 [音乐] 呃，您准备好接受选举结果了吗？您之前谈了很多关于—— 没有，我认为——我认为结果……从——你的意思是从作弊的角度来看，结果很好吗？这是——
Original English >> I just wanted to make sure [music] uh you are prepared to accept the results of the election. You've talked a lot about No, I think I think the results were were uh fine from you mean from the standpoint of [music] of cheating? It's
>> 尽管总统过去有着长期否认选举失败的历史，特朗普表示他将接受周二的结果。 但我绝对愿意接受这些结果。[音乐]
Original English >> despite the president's long history of denying electoral losses, Trump said that he would accept [music] Tuesday's results. But I am absolutely willing to accept those result. [music]
>> 他还表示，他准备与参众两院新的民主党多数派进行合作，[音乐] 即使他们要求他就针对其政府的国会调查出庭作证。[音乐]
Original English >> And he said he was prepared to work with the new Democratic majorities in [music] both the House and the Senate even if they sought his testimony for congressional investigations [music] into his administration.
>> 我们会与民主党人合作，而且我们，[音乐] 你知道，期待与他们合作。我们可能会达成某些共识。
Original English >> We'll work with the Democrats and we'll, [music] you know, look forward to working with them. We'll probably work something out.
>> 谢谢您接受采访，总统先生。
Original English >> Thank you, Mr. President, for your time.
>> 祝你愉快。再见。
Original English >> Have a good time. Bye.
>> 再见。
Original English >> Bye-bye.
>> 我们马上回来。
Original English >> We'll be right back.
### 新闻简报：特朗普宣布削减对以军援 [音乐] 以下是您还需要了解的其他消息。 今天，在美国对外政策的一个潜在重大转变中，[音乐] 特朗普总统表示，美国对以色列的大部分援助，约40亿美元，[音乐] 将在今年年底切断。在选举日接受福克斯新闻采访时，特朗普将这一转变的动机描述为剥夺民主党左翼（包括密歇根州当选参议员阿卜杜勒·赛义德）[音乐] 的有力口实。
Original English [music] Here's what else you need to know. Today, in a potentially major change to US [music] foreign policy, President Trump said that the bulk of American aid to Israel, about [music] $4 billion, would be cut off at the end of this year. In an election day interview with Fox News, Trump described his motivation for the change as taking [music] away a powerful talking point from the left wing of the Democratic party, including Senator Elect [music] Abdul Elsad of Michigan.
>> 为什么？因为他们不需要它，布莱恩。我是说，我问过他们，因为他们不需要它。而且因为，[音乐] 为什么当他们并不需要的时候，我们要去承受来自像埃尔-赛义德这样的疯子 [音乐] 的冷嘲热讽？这是一个糟糕的话题抓手。[音乐]
Original English >> Why? Because they don't need it, Brian. I mean, I asked them because they don't need it. And because [music] why should we uh suffer the slings from [music] uh lunatics like an El Sayat when they don't need it? It's a bad it's a bad talking point. [music]
>> 在10月7日袭击事件以及以色列在加沙的行动之后，民主党议员和候选人 [音乐] 对美国对以色列的军事援助提出了越来越多的批评。
Original English >> In the aftermath of the October 7th attacks and Israel's response in Gaza, both Democratic [music] lawmakers and candidates have become increasingly critical of US military aid to Israel.
>> [音乐]
Original English >> [music]
>> 特朗普表示，切断援助的决定是在征得以色列领导层同意的情况下作出的，但这一宣布似乎让一些以色列官员措手不及。[音乐] 今天的节目由安娜·弗利（Anna Foley）、斯特拉·谭（Stella Tan）和杰西卡·钟（Jessica Chung）制作。由雷切尔·奎斯特（Rachel Quester）和德文·泰勒（Devon Taylor）在佩奇·考瓦特（Paige Cowat）的协助下编辑。[音乐] 节目音乐由艾丽西亚·埃图布（Alicia Etub）和丹·鲍威尔（Dan Powell）创作，混音工程师为艾莉莎·莫克斯利（Alyssa Moxley）和克里斯·伍德（Chris Wood）。我们的主题曲 [音乐] 由 Wonderly 制作。 特别鸣谢泰勒·佩格和埃里卡·格林。 [音乐] 以上就是今天的《The Daily》。我是迈克尔。明天见。
Original English >> Trump said that the decision to cut off the aid was made with the consent of Israel's leadership, but the [music] announcement appeared to catch some Israeli officials by surprise. [music] Today's episode was produced by Anna Foley, Stella Tan, and Jessica Chung. It was edited by Rachel Quester, and Devon Taylor [music] with help from Paige Cowat. contains music by Alicia Etub and Dan Powell and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley and Chris Wood. Our theme [music] music is by Wonderly. Special thanks to Tyler Pager and Erica Green. [music] That's it for the Daily. I'm Michael. See you tomorrow.