---
author: EO
date: '2026-04-16'
guest: ''
layout: post.njk
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FX0De_ccROU
speaker: EO
tags:
  - ai-impact-on-jobs
  - future-of-work
  - career-development
  - labor-economics
  - upskilling
title: AI如何重塑劳动力市场与职业发展：经济学家与数学家的深度对话
summary: 经济学家Barat Chandra和数学家Ken Ono探讨了AI对劳动力市场、尤其是年轻劳动者就业增长的深远影响。他们分析了AI驱动的结构性变革，从“职业阶梯”到“职业格子”的转变，并强调了持续学习、战略性思维和教育创新的重要性。对话还触及了AI与历史技术变革的对比，以及AI在增强而非取代人类能力方面的潜力，最终呼吁个体和教育系统适应这一新时代。
insight: ''
draft: true
series: ''
category: ai-application
area: tech-engineering
project: []
people:
  - Barat Chandra
  - Ken Ono
companies_orgs:
  - Stanford Digital Economy Lab
  - Axiom Math
  - ADP
  - Khan Academy
products_models:
  - ChatGPT
media_books: []
status: evergreen
---
### AI对就业市场的冲击与未来职业格局

**Barat Chandra**: 我们看到，暴露在AI影响下的工作岗位，年轻员工的就业增长速度放缓了16%。这相当显著。AI能力对劳动力市场的结构性改变，将不会是暂时的。如果我们真正解锁AI在帮助人们学习方面的能力，那么在不同职业之间转换将会容易得多。所以我真的希望，我们最终能更接近一个对劳动者更友好的“职业格子”体系，而不是“职业阶梯”，后者存在着更多的技术变革风险。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

**Barat Chandra**: We're
 seeing
 that
 the
 jobs
 that
 are
 more


exposed
 to
 AI,
 the
 young
 workers
 in


those
 jobs
 are
 seeing
 16%
 slower


employment
 growth.
 So
 that's
 pretty


large.
 The
 structural
 change
 in
 AI


capabilities
 that
 are
 impacting
 the


labor
 market,
 that's
 not
 going
 to
 be
 a


temporary
 change.
 If
 we
 really
 unlock


AI's
 capabilities
 for
 helping
 people


learn,
 it
 could
 be
 much
 easier
 to
 switch


between
 different
 professions.
 So
 I'm


really
 hopeful
 that
 we
 end
 up
 somewhere


closer
 to
 a
 career
 lattice
 that
 works


for
 workers
 as
 opposed
 to
 a
 career


ladder
 where
 there's
 much
 more
 risk


about
 this
 technological
 change.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 我是Barat Chandra，斯坦福数字经济实验室的经济学家，我研究AI如何影响工作。我想说，在过去一年半左右的时间里，我认为今天劳动力经济学中最重要的问题之一就是AI对劳动力市场的影响。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

I'm


Barat
 Chandra.
 I'm
 an
 economist
 at
 the


Stanford
 Digital
 Economy
 Lab
 and
 I
 study


how
 AI
 is
 impacting
 work.
 I
 would
 say


over
 the
 past
 year
 and
 a
 half
 or
 so,
 I


do
 feel
 like
 one
 of
 the
 most
 important


questions
 in
 labor
 economics
 today
 is


about
 AI's
 impact
 on
 the
 labor
 market.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 一旦我真正开始更多地使用这些工具并理解了它们的能力，这便成为了我研究议程的焦点，因为它似乎是未来可能影响社会的、最重要的问题之一。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

Once
 I
 really
 started
 using
 the
 tools


more
 and
 understood
 their
 capabilities,


that
 became
 the
 focus
 of
 my
 research


agenda
 because
 it
 felt
 like
 one
 of
 the


most
 important
 questions
 impacting


society
 potentially
 in
 the
 future.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 我与我的合作者Eric Bolson和Ryu Chen一起发布了一项研究，我们研究了暴露在AI影响下的工作与未暴露在AI影响下的工作，它们的工作方式是如何变化的。我们追踪了美国数百万工人，使用的是一家薪资公司ADP的数据。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

I
 released
 a
 study
 with
 my
 collaborators


Eric
 Bolson
 and
 Ryu
 Chen.
 We
 studied
 how


jobs
 were
 changing
 in
 jobs
 that
 were


more
 exposed
 to
 AI
 versus
 less
 exposed


to
 AI.
 and
 we
 were
 tracking
 millions
 of


workers
 across
 the
 United
 States
 using


data
 from
 a
 payroll
 company
 called
 ADP.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 那里的一个关键发现是，总体而言，我们没有看到更多和更少暴露在AI下的工作在就业变化方面有 major 差异。然而，当我们聚焦于年轻工人时，我们确实看到了更多的分歧：暴露在AI下的工作，例如软件开发、客户服务、更多行政岗位，我们看到了就业下滑；而暴露在AI下的工作较少时，我们仍然看到一些持续的就业增长。而且，对于更有经验的工人来说，就业增长也基本处于正常趋势。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

One
 of
 the
 key
 findings
 there
 is
 that


overall
 we
 were
 not
 seeing
 major


differences
 in
 employment
 changes
 for


jobs
 that
 were
 more
 and
 less
 exposed
 to


AI.
 However,
 when
 we
 focus
 on
 young


workers,
 we
 do
 see
 more
 of
 a
 divergence


there
 where
 the
 jobs
 that
 are
 more


exposed
 to
 AI,
 such
 as
 software


development,
 customer
 service,
 more


administrative
 roles,
 we
 were
 seeing


employment
 declines
 and
 jobs
 that
 were


less
 exposed
 to
 AI,
 we
 were
 still
 seeing


some
 continued
 growth
 and
 employment.


And
 for
 more
 experienced
 workers
 as


well,
 we
 were
 still
 seeing
 employment


growth
 that
 was
 pretty
 much
 on
 trend.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 我们看到，暴露在AI下的工作岗位，那些工作中的年轻员工的就业增长速度放缓了16%。很多人刚刚开始他们的职业生涯，却发现困难重重。我们之所以选择“Canaries in the coal mine”（煤矿里的金丝雀）这个标题，我认为与这种观点是一致的。我们希望追踪这些结果，因为我们认为它们可能预示着AI未来可能产生的变革性影响。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

We're
 seeing
 that
 the
 jobs
 that
 are
 more


exposed
 to
 AI,
 the
 young
 workers
 in


those
 jobs
 are
 seeing
 16%
 slower


employment
 growth.
 a
 lot
 of
 people
 just


starting
 off
 in
 their
 careers
 and


they're
 finding
 it
 a
 hard
 time
 in
 doing


that.
 And
 the
 reason
 we
 chose
 the


canaries
 and
 the
 coal
 mine
 title
 is
 I


think
 consistent
 with
 that
 view.
 We
 want


to
 be
 tracking
 these
 outcomes
 because
 we


think
 they
 could
 be
 indicative
 of


potentially
 future
 transformative


impacts
 of
 AI.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 这在多大程度上是由AI驱动的，以及它将如何改变？我们不能确定这只是经济中的暂时变化，还是AI驱动的结构性变化。现在，我们确实测试了一些我们能想到的最合理的替代方案。这包括利率变化。暴露在利率变化下的工作实际上受AI影响较小。一种思考方式是，交通和建筑业受利率变化影响很大，但它们受AI影响却不大。所以，这是一个关键点，这让我认为驱动我们结果的可能不是利率变化。我们测试的其他因素包括科技行业过度招聘。如果我们剔除科技行业，结果是相似的。剔除计算机工作。我们测试了这些不同的替代方案，结果仍然非常相似。所以，正如你所说，如果这是AI能力的一次结构性改变，那将不是暂时的变化。这可能是长期的变化。而且我们追踪的时间越长，如果这些趋势仍然成立，那么AI就有可能对工作产生影响。当然，我们没有一个实验可以比较一个有AI的世界和一个没有AI的世界，并进行清晰的比较。要真正区分AI的影响，确实还有很多工作要做。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

How
 much
 of
 this
 is
 being


driven
 by
 AI
 and
 how
 is
 that
 going
 to


change
 going
 forward?
 We
 can't
 be
 sure


whether
 this
 is
 just
 temporary
 change
 in


the
 economy
 or
 if
 it's
 a
 structural


change
 being
 driven
 by
 AI.
 Now,
 we
 did


test
 some
 of
 the
 most
 plausible


alternatives
 that
 we
 could
 think
 of.
 So,


that
 includes
 interest
 rate
 changes.


Jobs
 that
 are
 more
 exposed
 to
 interest


rate
 changes
 are
 actually
 less
 exposed


to
 AI.
 One
 way
 to
 think
 about
 that
 is


things
 like
 transportation
 and


construction
 are
 very
 exposed
 to


interest
 rate
 changes,
 but
 they're


really
 not
 very
 exposed
 to
 AI.
 So,


that's
 one
 key
 thing
 and
 that
 makes
 me


think
 that
 it's
 probably
 not
 interest


rate
 changes
 that
 are
 driving
 our


results.
 Other
 things
 that
 we
 tested


include
 tech
 over
 hiring.
 So,
 we
 can


take
 out
 the
 tech
 sector,
 we
 get
 similar


results.
 Take
 out
 computer
 jobs.
 We


tested
 some
 of
 these
 different


alternatives
 and
 we
 were
 still
 getting


this
 very
 similar
 results.
 So,
 like


you're
 saying,
 if
 it's
 a
 structural


change
 in
 AI
 capabilities
 that
 are


impacting
 the
 labor
 market,
 that's
 not


going
 to
 be
 a
 temporary
 change.
 That's


potentially
 going
 to
 be
 a
 long
 run


change.
 And
 the
 longer
 that
 we
 can
 track


this
 and
 if
 those
 trends
 still
 seem
 to


hold
 up,
 that
 would
 be
 indicative
 of
 AI


potentially
 impacting
 work.
 Now,
 that


said,
 we
 don't
 have
 an
 experiment
 where


we
 can
 compare
 a
 world
 with
 AI
 to
 one


without
 AI
 and
 do
 a
 clean
 comparison.


There's
 definitely
 a
 lot
 more
 work
 to
 be


done
 here
 to
 really
 tease
 apart
 the


impact
 of
 AI.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 当你考虑年轻工人在进入劳动力市场时，他们所做的工作，很多是执行性的，依赖于他们在学校学到的书本知识。而他们不太有经验和能力去做的，是依赖于隐性知识，或者说只有通过实际工作才能获得的经验。还有更多的社交互动和更具战略性的思考。隐性知识，我认为是指那些依赖于高度本地化语境、战略性思考、社交互动，或者只能通过在职经验积累的方面。所以，这些是可能没有被写进书本里的东西。对于年轻工人来说，这与AI的能力直接重叠。而这些可能是经验更丰富的工人在面对AI时，以及与年轻工人相比时，可能拥有相对优势的情况。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

If
 you
 think
 about
 what
 young
 workers


are
 doing
 when
 they're
 entering
 the


workforce,
 a
 lot
 of
 it
 is


implementation,
 doing
 things
 that
 rely


on
 the
 book
 knowledge
 that
 they
 learned


while
 they
 were
 at
 school.
 Whereas
 the


things
 that
 they
 don't
 have
 as
 much


experience
 with
 an
 ability
 to
 to
 do
 is


relying
 on
 the
 tacet
 knowledge
 or
 the


sort
 of
 experience
 that
 you
 can
 only
 get


by
 doing
 things
 on
 the
 job.
 also
 more


social
 interaction
 and
 more
 strategic


thinking.
 Tacid
 knowledge
 I
 think
 of
 as


things
 that
 rely
 on
 a
 lot
 of
 hyper
 local


context
 or
 strategic
 thinking
 or
 social


interaction
 or
 things
 that
 you
 only


build
 via
 experience
 on
 the
 job.
 So


those
 are
 the
 types
 of
 things
 that
 are


maybe
 not
 written
 down
 as
 much
 in
 a


book.
 For
 young
 workers,
 it's
 more


directly
 overlapping
 with
 the
 AI


capabilities.
 And
 those
 could
 be
 the


sort
 of
 situations
 where
 more


experienced
 workers
 might
 have
 a


relative
 advantage
 compared
 to
 AI
 and


also
 compared
 to
 young
 workers.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 在培训年轻工人方面，企业确实希望雇佣年轻人，如果他们希望未来有中层管理人员或更有经验的员工。现在的问题是，尽管他们有这样做的动力，以便未来有员工，但他们可能没有足够的动力。所以，他们可能不会像从社会角度看那样雇佣足够多的年轻人，也可能不会像他们应该的那样培训他们。原因在于，这些年轻人不必永远留在公司。他们可以去另一家公司。所以，确实他们仍然想雇佣其中一些人，但他们可能不想雇佣足够多对社会有益的人数。这就是个人私营公司的激励与整个社会的激励之间的一种错配。现在，我能给出的更乐观的看法是，如果AI真的能很好地帮助人们学习，并且作为一种教育工具，它可能会加速这一过程，这可能还需要我们组织教育系统的很多改变，可能在大学，甚至在更低的层级，以帮助人们更快、更好地学习。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

When
 it


comes
 to
 training
 young
 workers,
 it's


totally
 right
 that
 firms
 will
 want
 to


hire
 young
 people
 if
 they
 want
 to
 have
 a


middle
 management
 or
 more
 experienced


staff
 going
 forward.
 Now
 the
 issue
 here


is
 even
 though
 that
 they
 have
 some


incentive
 to
 do
 that
 so
 that
 they
 have


workers
 in
 the
 future,
 they
 might
 not


have
 enough
 incentive
 to
 do
 that.
 So


they
 might
 not
 hire
 as
 much
 young
 people


as
 they
 should
 from
 a
 social
 perspective


and
 they
 might
 not
 train
 them
 as
 much
 as


they
 should.
 And
 the
 reason
 that's
 the


case
 is
 because
 those
 young
 people
 don't


have
 to
 stay
 at
 the
 company
 forever.


They
 can
 just
 go
 leave
 to
 another


company.
 So
 it's
 true
 that
 they
 will


still
 want
 to
 hire
 some
 of
 them,
 but


they
 might
 not
 want
 to
 hire
 as
 many
 as


would
 be
 beneficial
 to
 society.
 And
 it's


just
 kind
 of
 this
 mismatch
 between
 what


is
 the
 incentive
 of
 the
 individual


private
 company
 versus
 what
 is
 the


incentive
 of
 society
 as
 a
 whole.
 Now
 the


more
 optimistic
 take
 that
 I
 could
 give


here
 is
 that
 if
 AI
 really
 is
 as
 capable


of
 helping
 people
 learn
 uh
 and
 as
 a
 tool


for
 education
 maybe
 could
 speed
 up
 the


process
 at
 which
 that
 happens
 that
 could


also
 require
 a
 lot
 of
 changes
 in
 the
 way


that
 we
 organize
 our
 education
 system


potentially
 universities
 or
 even
 at
 a


lower
 level
 than
 that
 to
 help
 people


learn
 faster
 and
 better.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 我认为AI在短期到中期内，将不太擅长三件事：第一，体力劳动，除非我们在机器人领域有重大突破。第二，战略性思考和指导需要做什么。第三，社交互动。我认为战略性思考越来越重要，并且在未来可能会变得更加重要，因为未来的工作可能更多的是指导AI代理来执行任务，而你则指导它们应该做什么。所以，这种战略性思考，表达需要做什么，或者我想要什么被产出，我认为这将是一项相当关键的技能，这有点像公司里经理的角色。所以，这种管理工作和战略指导在未来可能会是一项相当重要的技能。当我想到年轻工人时，他们如何发展这些技能？尽可能多地构建和使用工具，并习惯于那种工作模式。越快发生，他们在适应劳动力市场动荡或这些技术变革方面可能就会越好。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

There
 are
 three


things
 that
 I
 think
 AI
 is
 going
 to
 be


much
 less
 capable
 of
 doing
 certainly
 in


the
 short
 to
 medium
 term.
 One
 physical


tasks
 unless
 we
 see
 a
 big
 advance
 in


robotics.
 Number
 two
 is
 strategic


thinking
 and
 guiding
 what
 needs
 to
 be


done.
 And
 number
 three
 is
 social


interaction.
 I
 think
 the
 strategic


thinking
 is
 increasingly
 important
 and


it's
 going
 to
 be
 even
 more
 important


going
 forward
 potentially
 because
 it


does
 seem
 like
 in
 the
 future
 a
 lot
 of


work
 might
 look
 like
 guiding
 AI
 agents


to
 do
 implementation
 while
 you're


telling
 them
 and
 guiding
 them
 on
 what


needs
 to
 be
 done.
 And
 so
 that
 sort
 of


strategic
 thinking,
 expressing
 what
 it


is
 that
 needs
 to
 be
 done
 or
 what
 I
 want


to
 be
 produced,
 I
 think
 that's
 going
 to


be
 a
 pretty
 key
 skill
 and
 that's
 kind
 of


the
 role
 of
 what
 a
 manager
 does
 within
 a


company.
 So
 that
 sort
 of
 managerial
 work


and
 strategic
 guidance
 could
 potentially


be
 a
 quite
 important
 skill
 going


forward.
 When
 I
 think
 about
 young


workers,
 how
 can
 they
 develop
 those


sorts
 of
 skills?
 building
 and
 using
 the


tools
 as
 much
 as
 possible
 and
 getting


used
 to
 to
 that
 sort
 of
 mode
 of
 work.


The
 faster
 that
 that
 can
 happen,
 the


better
 that
 they
 might
 be
 uh
 in
 terms
 of


adjusting
 to
 labor
 market
 disruptions
 or


these
 technological
 changes.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 我确实认为，将AI与一些历史变革进行比较会很有帮助。例如，工业革命。我认为AI与那个时期的一个比较是，实际上是技能最熟练的工人面临着来自工业革命的更大风险。一个想到的例子是“Luddites”（卢德主义者），他们是那种熟练的纺织工人，而工业革命期间出现的新发明实际上导致了他们许多人失业，而他们是社会中技能更熟练的工人。你可能在这里看到一些相似之处，那就是知识工作者，在受教育程度更高的岗位上，可能面临更大的AI暴露风险。所以我认为这是一个有趣的比较。如果我们考虑电力或IT革命，那么在20世纪，情况恰恰相反，它更多的是中等技能或低技能工作更容易受到该技术的影响。而最熟练、受教育程度最高的人们则从这项新技术的发展中获益更多。所以，我们仍然需要看看未来，AI会更像第一种情况还是第二种情况？

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

I
 do
 think
 it's
 very
 helpful
 to
 compare


AI
 to
 some
 of
 these
 historical
 changes.


So
 for example,
 the
 industrial


revolution.
 I
 think
 one
 comparison


between
 AI
 and
 that
 period
 that
 was
 a


case
 where
 it
 was
 actually
 the
 most


skilled
 workers
 who
 faced
 more
 risk
 from


the
 industrial
 revolution.
 So
 one
 case


that
 comes
 to
 mind
 is
 the
 lites
 who
 were


these
 kind
 of
 skilled
 textile
 workers


and
 the
 new
 inventions
 that
 came
 about


during
 the
 industrial
 revolution


actually
 led
 a
 lot
 of
 them
 to
 lose
 their


work
 and
 those
 were
 kind
 of
 the
 more


skilled
 workers
 in
 society.
 Something


that
 you
 might
 be
 seeing
 that's
 kind
 of


similar
 here
 is
 that
 it's
 more
 of the


knowledge
 workers
 in
 more
 educated
 roles


that
 might
 be
 facing
 greater
 AI


exposure.
 So
 I
 think
 that's
 an


interesting
 comparison.
 If
 we
 think


about
 things
 like
 electricity
 or
 the
 IT


revolution,
 so
 basically
 over
 the
 course


of
 the
 20th
 century,
 a
 lot
 of
 those
 were


actually
 kind
 of
 the
 opposite
 where
 it


was
 kind
 of
 this
 middle
 skill
 or


low-skilled
 work
 that
 tended
 to
 be
 more


exposed
 to
 that
 technology.
 Whereas
 the


most
 skilled,
 the
 highest
 educated


people
 benefited
 a
 lot
 more
 from
 the


development
 of
 this
 new
 technology.
 So


we
 still
 have
 to
 see
 going
 forward,
 is


AI
 going
 to
 look
 more
 like
 the
 first


case
 or
 the
 second
 case?

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 我确实认为，这里有一个值得考虑的方面。AI可能与过去的历史事件不同的一个方式是，它的能力改进速度。即使是现在，它比三年前能够完成的任务要多得多，而且我认为存在这个问题：随着新工作的产生，对现有工作的需求增加等等，这些是由人类来完成，还是AI的能力会发展得足够快，以至于AI也会做那种工作？我认为这是我们可能认为AI可能不同于之前技术的一个领域。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

I
 do
 think


there's
 something
 worth
 bearing
 in
 mind


here.
 So
 one
 way
 that
 AI
 might
 be


different
 than
 past
 historical
 episodes


is
 just
 the
 rate
 of
 capabilities


improvement.
 Even
 today
 it's
 much
 more


capable
 of
 doing
 different
 tasks
 than
 it


was
 3
 years
 ago
 and
 I
 do
 think
 there's


this
 question
 about
 as
 new
 work
 gets


created
 there's
 new
 demand
 for
 existing


work
 etc.
 Are
 those
 going
 to
 be
 done
 by


humans
 or
 are
 the
 AI
 capabilities
 going


to
 advance
 fast
 enough
 that
 AI
 is
 also


going
 to
 be
 doing
 that
 kind
 of
 work?
 And


I
 think
 that's
 the
 one
 area
 where
 we


could
 think
 that
 potentially
 AI
 could
 be


different
 than
 prior
 technologies.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 有很多讨论关于我们如何使用AI来增强工人，让他们过得更好，而不是潜在地仅仅用AI取代他们，自动化他们正在做的所有事情。我写这篇文章的目的是提出一个我个人认为可能在很大程度上增强工人的具体解决方案。那就是利用AI作为一种学习工具。我认为目前正在自我增强的例子，比如一个拥有精干团队的初创公司创始人，能够因为能接触到AI而完成更多任务。那些他们以前完全不知道如何做的事情，现在因为有了AI工具，他们自己就能做。我确实认为这是一个非常好的增强的例子。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

There's
 been
 a
 lot
 of
 discussion
 about


how
 we
 can
 use
 AI
 to
 augment
 workers
 and


make
 them
 better
 off
 as
 opposed
 to


potentially
 just
 substituting
 them
 from


the
 workforce
 and
 automating
 all


everything
 that
 they're
 doing.
 Where
 I


was
 going
 with
 this
 essay
 is
 just
 trying


to
 suggest
 one
 concrete
 solution
 that
 I


think
 could
 potentially
 augment
 workers


quite
 a
 bit.
 It
 using
 AI
 as
 a
 tool
 for


helping
 people
 learn.
 I
 think
 an
 example


of
 a
 person
 who's
 augmenting
 themselves


with
 AI
 right
 now.
 An
 example
 of
 that


would
 be
 a
 startup
 founder
 with
 a
 really


lean
 team
 that's
 able
 to
 do
 a
 lot
 more


tasks
 because
 they
 have
 access
 to
 the


AI.
 All
 of
 the
 different
 functions
 that


previously
 they
 wouldn't
 have
 had
 any


idea
 how
 to
 do.
 Now
 they
 can
 do
 it


themselves
 because
 they
 have
 access
 to


these
 AI
 tools.
 I
 I
 think
 that's
 a
 very


good
 example
 in
 fact
 of
 augmentation.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 无论你更多的是被自动化还是被增强，这真的取决于你关注的任务是什么。你是增加了你可以做任务的范围，还是你的任务被这项技术引入所压缩了？我认为这件事可能很棒，在于当我们想到有益于工人的技术时，通常是增加了他们能做的任务范围。相比之下，那些自动化工作、替代工人的事情，是那些剥夺了工人一些需要做的工作，现在他们需要做的事情更少了。我认为目标是找到增强工人能力的方法，让他们能做更多事情。而历史上，我们知道最好的方法之一就是教育他们。通过教育，工人能够比以前做更多的事情。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

Whether
 you're
 more
 automated
 or


augmented
 really
 depends
 on
 what
 are
 the


tasks
 that
 you're
 focusing
 on.
 Are
 you


increasing
 the
 scope
 of
 tasks
 that
 you


can
 do
 or
 are
 your
 tasks
 getting
 shrunk


by
 the
 introduction
 of
 this
 technology?


The
 reason
 that
 I
 think
 that
 this
 could


be
 wonderful
 in
 terms
 of
 augmentation
 is


that
 when
 we
 think
 about
 technology
 that


benefits
 workers,
 often
 it
 is
 increasing


the
 set
 of
 tasks
 that
 they're
 able
 to


do.
 In
 contrast,
 things
 that
 automate


work
 that
 substitute
 for
 workers,
 those


are
 things
 that
 take
 away
 some
 of
 the


tasks
 that
 workers
 have
 to
 do
 and
 now


they
 have
 to
 do
 fewer
 things.
 know
 I


think
 the
 goal
 is
 to
 try
 to
 find
 ways
 to


augment
 workers
 to
 make
 them
 more


capable
 of
 doing
 things.
 And
 one
 of
 the


best
 ways
 that
 we
 know
 historically
 for


doing
 that
 is
 by
 educating
 them.
 With


education,
 workers
 are
 able
 to
 do
 a
 lot


more
 than
 they
 could
 do
 before.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 我确实认为，这里有一个值得牢记的方面。AI可能与过去的历史事件不同的一个方式是，它的能力改进速度。而且我认为我们现在有一个机会，在学习能力方面迎来100年来甚至更长时间以来最大的变化之一。那就是使用AI工具进行个性化学习。对我来说，使用AI进行增强，有几个分支。我越来越多地使用它来做数学。在一些我可能需要写下模型或证明某事的地方，它非常非常擅长。它的增强方式是，检查某事是否正确比从头写出来更容易。所以我认为这是一种重要的增强我工作的方式。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

I
 do


think
 there's
 something
 worth
 bearing
 in


mind
 here.
 So
 one
 way
 that
 AI
 might
 be


different
 than
 past
 historical
 episodes


is
 just
 the
 rate
 of
 capabilities


improvement.
 And
 I
 think
 we
 have
 an


opportunity
 right
 now
 for
 one
 of
 the


biggest
 changes
 in
 learning
 capabilities


that
 we've
 had
 in
 100
 years
 if
 not


longer.
 And
 that's
 in
 using
 the
 AI
 tools


for
 personalized
 learning.
 For
 me,
 using


AI
 for
 augmentation,
 there's
 a
 couple


branches
 to
 that.
 And
 something
 that


increasingly
 I'm
 using
 it
 for
 is


actually
 for
 math.
 There
 are
 areas
 where


I
 might
 need
 to
 write
 down
 a
 model
 or


prove
 something.
 And
 it's
 really,
 really


good
 at
 that.
 The
 way
 that
 that's


augmenting
 is
 that
 it's
 easier
 to
 check


if
 something
 is
 correct
 than
 it
 is
 to


necessarily
 write
 it
 from
 scratch.
 And


so
 I
 also
 potentially
 view
 that
 as
 a
 as


a
 significant
 way
 of
 augmenting
 my
 work.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 另一方面，我不用AI做的事情，我个人不怎么用它来写作。我不使用它写作的原因是，写作可以帮助我思考，并且当我自己写作时，我能很好地理解一个问题。并不是我不信任AI工具来写作。更多的是，如果我不自己动手并理解我在说什么，我将从写作中获得的价值会少得多。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

Now,
 on
 the
 other
 hand,
 things
 that
 I


don't
 do
 with
 AI,
 I
 personally
 don't


really
 use
 it
 for
 writing.
 And
 the


reason
 I
 don't
 use
 it
 for
 writing
 is


that
 writing
 helps
 me
 think
 and
 it
 helps


me
 understand
 a
 problem
 really
 well
 when


I
 do
 it
 myself.
 It's
 not
 that
 I
 don't


trust
 the
 AI
 tools
 to
 do
 the
 writing.


It's
 more
 that
 I
 would
 get
 way
 less


value
 out
 of
 the
 writing
 if
 I
 didn't
 do


it
 myself
 and
 understood
 what
 it
 was


that
 I
 was
 talking
 about.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 我认为在决定我们要委托什么给AI，以及什么要保留给人来做时，我认为这很大程度上取决于人类想要什么，其中一部分是关于价值观，比如什么是对的，什么是错的。其中一部分也是表达我们的偏好。那么，我们想建造什么？什么能让我们过得更好？什么能让我们更快乐？我们会真正想用AI来做什么样的实施工作？那是我们需要向AI表达的。我认为这些任务，至少在短期到中期内，并不明显如何被自动化，因为其中一部分也取决于我们的反思。我们需要仔细考虑我们想要什么。有时我们会通过反思和更深入的思考来了解我们想要什么。所以，关于我们应该构建什么，我们应该实施什么的指导，我认为至少在短期到中期内，这更具有人类特质，而不是AI。而我把AI更多地看作是实施方面。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

I
 think
 in


deciding
 what
 we
 want
 to
 delegate
 and


what
 we
 want
 to
 preserve
 as
 human,
 I


think
 a
 lot
 of
 that
 depends
 on
 what
 it


is
 that
 humans
 want
 and
 some
 of
 that
 is


about
 values
 like
 what
 is
 right,
 what
 is


wrong.
 Some
 of
 that
 is
 also
 just


expressing
 our
 preferences.
 So
 what
 do


we
 want
 to
 build?
 What
 would
 make
 us


better
 off?
 What
 would
 make
 us
 happier?


What
 are
 the
 things
 that
 we
 would


actually
 want
 to
 use
 AI
 for
 for


implementation?
 That's
 something
 that
 we


have
 to
 express
 to
 the
 AI.
 I
 think
 those


sorts
 of
 tasks,
 it's
 not
 obvious
 to
 me


how
 that's
 going
 to
 be
 automated,
 you


know,
 in
 the
 short
 to
 medium
 term
 at


least
 because
 some
 of
 that
 both
 it


depends
 on
 also
 our
 reflection.
 We
 need


to
 think
 through
 what
 it
 is
 that
 we


want.
 Sometimes
 we
 learn
 about
 what
 it


is
 that
 we
 want
 as
 we
 reflect
 on
 it
 and


as
 we
 think
 more
 about
 it.
 And
 so
 that


guidance
 about
 what
 it
 is
 that
 we
 should


build,
 what
 it
 is
 that
 we
 should


implement,
 that
 I
 view
 as
 at least
 in


the
 short
 to
 medium
 term
 being
 more


characteristically
 human
 than
 AI.
 And
 I


view
 the
 AI
 is
 more
 on
 the


implementation
 side.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 想象一下，如果AI真的降低了学习新东西的好处。有趣的是，在那个世界里，劳动力市场的**不平等**可能大大降低。如果进入一个领域的顶端，或者在一个给定职业中获得最高质量产出的障碍大大降低，因为AI可以完成很多最困难的任务，那么那实际上是一个不平等可能更低的世界，因为那些在学校里懂很多并且能力很强的人，可能与那些在学校里不那么努力的人之间，差别不会那么大。这有点有趣，因为在**不平等**和**学习投资**之间存在一种潜在的权衡。另一方面，如果AI真的增加了这种战略性思考，甚至社交技能等的益处，那么它实际上可以增加努力学习的好处，因为如果我能发展出战略性思考技能，那么我在劳动力市场上就会非常有价值。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

Imagine
 that
 AI
 really
 reduces
 the


benefits
 of
 learning
 something
 new.
 An


interesting
 thing
 about
 this
 is
 that


that's
 a
 world
 where
 potentially


inequality
 is
 much
 lower
 in
 the
 labor


market.
 If
 the
 barriers
 to
 getting
 at


the
 top
 of
 a
 field
 or
 getting
 the


highest
 quality
 output
 in
 a
 given


occupation
 or
 something,
 if
 that
 barrier


becomes
 much
 lower
 because
 AI
 can
 do
 a


lot
 of
 the
 hardest
 tasks,
 then
 that's


actually
 a
 world
 where
 potentially


inequality
 is
 lower
 because
 the


difference
 between
 people
 who
 know
 a
 lot


in
 school
 and
 are
 very
 capable
 could
 be


not
 that
 different
 from
 people
 who
 don't


try
 that
 hard
 in
 school.
 It's
 kind
 of


interesting
 because
 there's
 this


potentially
 trade-off
 between
 inequality


and
 investments
 in
 learning.
 On
 the


other
 hand,
 if
 AI
 really
 increases
 the


benefits
 of
 this
 sort
 of
 strategic


thinking,
 even
 these
 social
 skills,


etc.,
 that
 could
 actually
 increase
 the


benefits
 of
 trying
 really
 hard
 in
 school


because
 if
 I
 can
 develop
 the
 strategic


thinking
 skills,
 then
 I'll
 be
 really


valuable
 in
 the
 labor
 market.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 我会鼓励年轻人，学生们，尽可能多地使用AI工具，用它们来构建，并真正专注于发展那种战略性思考。你如何最好地利用这些工具？它们不太擅长的地方在哪里，而作为人类，你能在哪些方面增加很多价值？我认为有一些非常复杂的方式来思考AI未来可能如何影响思维。这里有一些新的干预措施，比如使用AI的教育模式，让人们专注于批判性思维技能，而不是仅仅卸载任务。所以，有不同的平台。我知道，例如，**Khan Academy**有一个工具，你可以使用AI工具，但它不会直接给你答案，它会帮助你思考如何找到答案，而不是直接给出。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

I
 would
 encourage
 young
 people,
 students


to
 use
 the
 AI
 tools
 as
 much
 as
 they
 can


uh
 build
 with
 them
 and
 really
 focus
 on


developing
 that
 kind
 of
 strategic


thinking.
 How
 do
 you
 best
 make
 use
 of


these
 tools?
 Where
 are
 the
 areas
 where


they're
 not
 as
 good
 and
 what
 are
 areas


in
 which
 you
 as
 a
 human
 can
 add
 a
 lot
 of


value?
 I
 think
 there
 are
 some
 very


complicated
 ways
 of
 thinking
 about
 how


AI
 might
 affect
 thinking
 going
 forward.


There
 are
 some
 newer
 interventions
 that


are
 happening
 here
 uh
 education
 style


modes
 with
 AI
 usage
 to
 make
 people
 focus


on
 the
 critical
 thinking
 skills
 as


opposed
 to
 just
 offloading
 the
 task.
 So


there
 are
 different
 sort
 of
 platforms.
 I


know
 uh
 Khan
 Academy
 for
 example
 has
 one


where
 you
 can
 use
 the
 AI
 tool
 but
 it's


not
 going
 to
 give
 you
 the
 answer.
 It's


going
 to
 help
 you
 think
 through
 how
 to


get
 to
 the
 answer
 as
 opposed
 to
 just


giving
 it
 to
 you
 off
 the
 bat.

</details>

**Barat Chandra**: 我确实认为，我们可以想象一个未来世界，如果我们真正解锁了AI帮助人们学习的能力，那么根据需求随时间演变的情况，在不同职业之间转换将会容易得多。如果某个工作在经济中变得更加重要，如果我们能找到一种帮助人们更快过渡的方法，那将真正释放出巨大的潜力。所以我真的希望，我们最终能更接近一个对劳动者更友好的“职业格子”体系，而不是“职业阶梯”，后者存在着更多的技术变革风险。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

I
 do
 think


that
 we
 could
 imagine
 a
 world
 in
 the


future
 where
 if
 we
 really
 unlock
 AI's


capabilities
 for
 helping
 people
 learn,


it
 could
 be
 much
 easier
 to
 switch


between
 different
 professions
 based
 on


how
 demand
 for
 those
 jobs
 is
 evolving


over
 time.
 And
 if
 some
 uh
 job
 becomes


much
 more
 important
 in
 the
 economy,
 if


we
 can
 find
 a
 way
 to
 help
 people


transition
 faster,
 that
 could
 really


unlock
 a
 lot
 of
 potential.
 So
 I'm
 really


hopeful
 that
 we
 end
 up
 somewhere
 closer


to
 a
 career
 lattice
 that
 works
 for


workers
 as
 opposed
 to
 a
 career
 ladder


where
 there's
 much
 more
 risk
 about
 this


technological
 change.

</details>

### 个人对AI的认知转变与教育的未来

**Ken Ono**: 有史以来第一次，我很难提出**ChatGPT**会出错的问题。我曾感到沮丧，想着我该如何保持在AI的前面？我实际上认为那是错误的问题。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

For
 the
 first
 time
 I
 struggled
 to


assemble
 questions
 that
 chat
 GPT
 would


get
 wrong.
 I
 was
 devastated
 was
 thinking


how
 am
 I
 going
 to
 stay
 ahead
 of
 AI?
 I


actually
 think
 that's
 the
 wrong


question.

</details>

**Ken Ono**: 我是Ken Ono，一名数学家，我也在AI for Math领域工作。我是弗吉尼亚大学的教授（休假中），也是**Axiom Math**的创始数学家。我对智能的看法现在已经改变了很多。我们这个世界在教育孩子方面做得还不够好。我这么说不是批评教育工作者，我本人就是一名教育工作者。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

My
 name
 is
 Ken
 Ono.
 I'm
 a


mathematician
 and
 I
 also
 work
 in
 the


space
 called
 AI
 for
 math.
 I'm
 a


professor
 at
 the
 University
 of
 Virginia


on
 leave
 and
 I'm
 the
 founding


mathematician
 at
 Axiom
 Math.
 My
 view
 on


intelligence
 now
 has
 changed
 quite
 a


bit.
 We
 in
 this
 world
 aren't
 doing
 the


best
 we
 can
 at
 educating
 our
 children.


And
 I
 don't
 say
 that
 to
 be
 critical
 of


educators.
 I
 am
 an
 educator.

</details>

**Ken Ono**: 参观幼儿园班级，在“家长带我上学日”总是很有趣，这样他们就可以谈论他们做什么了。哦，我认识所有的质数，或者我真的擅长加法。我希望保留这种好奇心和孩子们在一切事物都是新事物时的那种活力。想想看，我们今天会在哪里？

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

It's
 always


a
 treat
 to
 visit
 a
 kindergarten
 class,
 a


first
 grade
 class
 when
 it's
 bring
 your


parent
 to
 school
 day
 so
 they
 can
 talk


about
 what
 they
 do.
 Oh,
 I
 know
 all
 the


prime
 numbers
 or
 I'm
 really
 good
 at


adding
 that
 wonder
 and
 I
 want
 to
 just


bottle
 up
 this
 energy
 because
 if
 we


could
 maintain
 that
 wonder
 in
 the
 world


and
 the
 energy
 that
 children
 have
 when


everything
 around
 them
 is
 new.
 Think


about
 where
 we
 would
 be
 today.

</details>

**Ken Ono**: 成为像Romanagen那样的人，或者至少在富有成效的方式上富有创造力的能力和潜力，我认为它存在于我们所有人身上。你的身份由谁拥有？你拥有。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

The
 ability
 and
 the
 potential
 to
 be
 someone


like
 Romanagen
 or
 at least
 creative
 in
 a


productive
 way.
 I
 think
 it
 resides
 in
 us


all.
 Who
 owns
 your
 identity?
 You
 do.

</details>