--- author: TED date: '2026-02-17' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L12cMGUsf1Y speaker: TED tags: - climate-finance - energy-transition - investment-gap - progress-over-perfection - emerging-markets title: 打破“纯净测试”：释放气候融资的真实潜力 summary: 当前气候融资因过度追求“完美”而非“进步”而陷入困境，僵化的“纯净测试”排斥了对新兴市场和高排放行业的必要投资，导致“转型陷阱”。文章指出，重建信任、减少附加条件地动员资本，并与所有行业（包括高排放者）合作，是实现能源转型所需速度和规模的关键。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: macro-economy area: geopolitics project: [] people: [] companies_orgs: [] products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 气候融资的困境与巨大的资金缺口 当前，**气候融资**（Climate Finance: 为应对气候变化而进行的投资和资金流动）正处于一个令人困惑的境地。它被许多人视为“不足”，被主流金融界视为“小众”，而被其他人视为“难以捉摸”。然而，一个清洁增长型经济的融资，完全依赖于真实的资金流。目前，全球每年在**能源转型**（Energy Transition: 从化石燃料转向可再生能源的过程）方面的投资略高于一万亿美元。据我们最佳估计，到2050年，这一数字每年需要增至3.5万亿美元。为何存在如此巨大的资金缺口？作为一名金融家和投资者，我深入了解金融机构和机构投资者（包括主权财富基金、资产管理人、资产所有者和银行）在清洁能源转型方面的思维模式和行动方式。我认为，全球气候融资存在一个主要的断层线。
Original English Climate finance finds itself in a confused position today, in 2025. It is viewed as insufficient by many, as a niche by mainstream finance and as elusive by everyone else. And yet, financing a clean growth economy relies entirely on the real money. Today, we are investing a little over a trillion dollars every year, globally, in the energy transition. By our best estimates, we need that number to rise to 3.5 trillion every year between now and 2050. Why is there a gap? As a financier and investor myself, I've been at the heart of how financial institutions and institutional investors, including sovereign wealth funds, asset managers, asset owners and banks, think and act on the clean energy transition. And I believe there is one major fault line in global climate finance.
### “完美主义”的陷阱：僵化的“纯净测试” 我们优先考虑了“完美”而非“进步”，将大片的行业、公司和国家简单地划分为“灰色”或“绿色”的二元对立。但正如我们所知，绿色有“50种深浅”。如果我们希望以足够的速度和规模解决这一挑战，就必须与它们全部合作。是的，这意味着资金不仅要流向清洁解决方案，还要特别流向**高排放行业**（Heavy Polluters: 产生大量温室气体排放的产业）和**新兴市场**（Emerging Markets: 经济快速发展但尚未完全成熟的国家或地区）。是的，我们无法通过“纯净测试”（Purity Tests: 评估投资项目是否符合严格的环保标准，有时过于僵化）来解决气候挑战。 发达国家曾承诺每年为发展中国家提供1000亿美元，以促进清洁能源转型。然而，这一目标在13年后才勉强实现。这一延迟，以及目标本身，已成为我们无法以所需速度和规模为转型融资的象征。相比之下，世界各国政府在短短两个月内就分配了10万亿美元（是的，是万亿）用于COVID经济刺激。我们是否花了数年或数月来定义“COVID融资”的含义？我们是否创建了标准、工作组、分类法、框架、定义？然而，我们气候转型融资的词汇量似乎在不断增长，但实际的资金投入却少得可怜。
Original English We have prioritized perfection over progress by painting entire swaths of sectors, industries, companies and countries in purely binary terms of gray or green. But as we all know, there are 50 shades of green. (Laughter) And we need to work with them all if we have to solve this challenge at speed and scale. And yes, that means that the money must flow not just to clean solutions but also, and specifically, to heavy polluters and emerging markets. And yes, we are not going to solve the climate challenge through purity tests. The developed world committed 100 billion dollars for the developing world to facilitate the clean-energy transition annually. That goal was achieved 13 years later. That time has broadly become symbolic, in addition to that goal itself, of our inability to finance the transition at the speed and scale needed. By contrast, governments all over the world allocated 10 trillion, with a T, in COVID economic stimulus in two months. Did we spend years or months coming up with what COVID finance means? Did we create standards, working groups, taxonomies, frameworks, definitions? Yet somehow our lexicon of financing the climate transition grows. The dollars? Not so much. If we are to truly work on this, we need integrity. Absolutely. But in our quest for perfection, we are losing out on the goal itself. On the goal of unleashing the largest commercial opportunity of our time.
### 转型陷阱：高排放行业与投资者的两难 事实上，**绿色融资需要金融业的绿色化**（Financing green requires greening finance）。而且，在许多情况下，这不仅能减少排放，还能带来利润。例如，世界上的许多公用事业公司正意识到，运行燃煤电厂比运行可再生能源发电厂成本更高，因为可再生能源的成本正在迅速下降。这对投资者而言，是一个绝佳的机遇。通过收购部分燃煤电厂并制定加速淘汰计划，投资者不仅有机会获得可观的回报，还能减少排放，并为纳税人和用户降低成本。 为何这一过程尚未大规模发生？因为与高排放行业和污染者合作，对于我许多气候活动家朋友以及我共事过的许多资深投资者来说，都极其令人不安。他们花费数十年时间试图理解其排放对地球轨迹的影响。然而，不与他们合作，情况只会更糟。 让我通过一个具体的例子来说明。以钢铁行业为例。想象您是一家位于印度的钢铁公司CEO。您已制定了脱碳战略，并希望投资以减少炼钢过程中的排放，减少对煤炭的依赖，并提高可再生能源的产能。您走向资本市场，希望为该计划筹集资金。这听起来很棒，不是吗？每个人都应该乐于接受。 然而，在投资者路演中，您可能会听到这样的回应：“我很想投资您，但我的政策禁止我接触煤炭。”或者，“如果我与您合作，我宁愿不让非政府组织（NGOs）在我家门口示威。”又或者，“我很想投资您，但我有一个投资组合净零排放的目标，而您的业务会增加我的排放量。”经过漫长而艰苦的拒绝过程后，您只能回家思考：是应该放弃计划，还是坚持下去并动用自有资产负债表的资本？如果您坚持下去，并向股东申请批准分配资本支出（CAPEX），但股东们却不满意，因为这会影响他们的股息。恭喜您，您已正式陷入了“**转型陷阱**”（Transition Trap: 企业在追求绿色转型过程中，因外部阻碍（如融资困难、政策限制）而陷入停滞或恶化困境）。您渴望转型，但却束手无策。 因此，作为投资者和金融家，这种可能导致公司资金匮乏的动态，很可能会让它们维持现状，甚至更糟的是，落入那些根本不关心气候的投资者的手中。
Original English For instance, many utilities around the world are realizing that it is more expensive to run coal plants than renewables because of the rapidly falling cost of renewables. For investors, this is an incredible opportunity. By buying up some of those coal plants and developing a strategy for an accelerated phaseout, investors have the opportunity to not just generate an attractive return. They can also reduce emissions as well as reduce costs for tax for ratepayers. Why hasn't this happened? The idea of working with heavy-emitting industries and polluters is incredibly uncomfortable for a lot of my climate activist friends, as well as some of the most sophisticated investors I've worked with, who have spent decades trying to understand the impact of their emissions on the planet's trajectory. But not working with them is worse still. Let me walk you through a concrete example. Although I'll talk about steel. Imagine you are the CEO of a steel company in India. You have a decarbonization strategy in place, and you want to invest to reduce the emissions in your steel-making process and reduce your reliance on coal and increase your capacity for renewables. You go out to the capital markets to raise capital to fund that plan. Great. Everyone should love this, right? Here's what you hear on the investor roadshow. "Ah, I'd love to invest in you, but my policy prohibits me from having exposure to coal." Or, "I'd rather not have the NGOs demonstrating on my doorstep if I start working with you." Or, "I'd love to invest in you, but I have a net-zero portfolio target, and that will increase my emissions.” So after a long and arduous process of no's, you go back home and wonder: should you just scrap the plan, or should you stick to it and use your own balance sheet capital? You stick it through, and then you go to your shareholders for approval to allocate the capex. But your shareholders are not happy because that affects their dividend. Congratulations. You've officially found yourself in a transition trap. You want to transition, but your hands are tied. So as investors and financiers, this dynamic of potentially starving companies of capital is likely to put them back into their status quo or worse still, put them into the hands of investors who don't really care about the climate.
### 重建信任：以信任为核心的融资新范式 那么，我们如何才能优先考虑“进步”而非“完美”？答案是：通过建立信任。因为信任，作为一名金融家，我深知信任而非资本，才是能源转型的关键货币。我们需要将信任重新放回气候融资的条款清单中。我们可以通过附加更少限制条件的融资来动员资金。例如，近期一些国家，包括主要经济体，拒绝了来自一些北方国家提供的清洁能源转型融资方案。原因是他们担心，为了换取可能仅是杯水车薪、甚至可能增加国家债务水平的资本，他们被要求承诺一些目标。这会侵蚀信任。 因此，如果我们想真正为南方国家建立有效的全球气候融资伙伴关系，我们就需要让企业家和这些国家更容易、更快地获得资本。我们需要将这些资本投入使用，以扩大这些国家的清洁能源生态系统和系统，同时在过渡期内提供赋能基础设施，以确保稳定和安全的电网与供应。我们可以共同努力实现这一点，因为我们知道，通过扩大包含的范围来扩展**可投资宇宙**（Investable Universe: 潜在可供投资者选择的资产或项目的总和），我们就能共同确保金融能够触及全球经济的每一个角落。
Original English So how do we prioritize progress over perfection? By building trust. Because trust, and I say this as a financier, trust and not capital is the key currency for the energy transition. We need to put trust back on the climate finance term sheet. And we can do that by mobilizing finance with less strings attached. As an example, in the recent past, several countries, including major economies, have refused financing packages on clean-energy transition offered by several countries in the Global North. Because they're concerned that they're being asked to commit to goals in exchange for capital that may, at best, come in a trickle or at worst, increase national debt levels. That erodes trust. So if we are to truly crack global climate finance partnerships for the South, we need to make it easier and faster for entrepreneurs and those countries to access that capital. We need to put that capital to work to scale the clean-energy ecosystems and systems in those countries, but we also need to provide the enabling infrastructure in the interim period to ensure a stable and secure grid and supply. We can all work together on this because we know that if we expand the investable universe by expanding the scope of what is included, we can together ensure that finance reaches every part of the global economy.
### 行动呼吁：拥抱多元化，释放市场潜力 我常常回想起我12岁时，作为一名气候活动家，带着满腔的沮丧和不耐烦，急切地要求立即建立清洁能源系统。但事后看来，并结合我迄今为止的多年经验，我知道，如果我们不开始行动，就无法实现完美。我想让我们思考，我们每个人可以扮演什么角色。我想让我们思考，如何利用金融这一语言，与高排放行业进行互动，因为这是他们能够理解并作出回应的语言。 因此，如果您是金融家，请拥抱与所有部门、行业、公司、国家合作的机会。如果您是活动家，请让他们承担责任，但不要孤立他们。如果您两者都不是，那么您仍然有机会成为同时具备这两种特质的稀有群体。我坚信，我们这一代人有能力利用市场的力量，重建对气候融资的信任，摆脱其混乱的局面，并释放出我们为所有人创造清洁能源和清洁增长所需的数万亿美元。谢谢大家。
Original English I often go back to how I thought, with the frustration and the impatience of my 12-year-old climate activist self, demanding that we need a clean-energy system now. But with hindsight, and with my years of experience thus far, I know that we cannot get perfection if we don't start acting. I want us to think about what role each of us can play. And I want us to think about how we can engage with high-emitting industries using finance as the language, because that is the language they understand and respond to. So if you're a financier, embrace the opportunity to work with all sectors, industries, companies, countries. If you're an activist, hold them accountable, but not by ostracizing them. And if you're neither, then you still have the opportunity to become the rare breed that is both. I truly believe in the ability of our generation to use the power of markets and rebuild the trust in climate finance, to get it out of its confused position and unleash the trillions that we need to generate clean energy and clean growth for everyone. Thank you. (Applause)