---
author: Joseph Wang
date: '2026-04-29'
guest: ''
layout: post.njk
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adfezGXZMTQ
speaker: Joseph Wang
tags:
  - fomc
  - federal-reserve
  - interest-rates
  - inflation
  - economic-policy
  - oil-prices
  - geopolitics
title: 2026年4月FOMC会议解读：鲍威尔的告别、鹰派分歧与经济前瞻
summary: 本次FOMC会议结束后，演讲者对美联储主席鲍威尔的领导表示肯定，并分析了本次会议的几个关键看点：一是FOMC声明中出现了意料之外的四份分歧意见，特别是三位鹰派官员对未来降息预期语言的反对，显示出对通胀风险的担忧；二是鲍威尔确认将在任期结束后留任理事，以应对其本人及美联储面临的刑事调查，强调维护美联储独立性；三是鲍威尔对油价影响的 nuanced 观点，认为其对经济增长的负面冲击可能抵消通胀推力，市场或将转向预期降息。报告最后展望了新主席接任后可能带来的不确定性。
insight: ''
draft: true
series: ''
category: macro-economy
area: finance-wealth
project: []
people: []
companies_orgs: []
products_models: []
media_books: []
status: evergreen
---
### 鲍威尔的告别与经济背景：一个时代的印记

今天，我们迎来的是2026年4月的FOMC政策解读。在刚刚结束的最后一次J. Powell（杰罗姆·鲍威尔）主席新闻发布会后，心情不免有些复杂。回首鲍威尔任内多年，他无疑是一位极具智慧的领导者，始终坚守着他认为最符合国家利益的信念。作为一位**美联储主席**（Fed chair），他的表现得到了普遍认可，为美国经济稳定做出了贡献。他即将卸任，下一任期将迎来Kevin（凯文），届时我们将共同见证新的篇章。

在深入探讨政策细节之前，我们有必要回顾一下近期影响市场的关键因素。过去几周，**地缘政治**（geopolitics）局势，特别是**伊朗的战争**（war in Iran），成为了市场的焦点。这场冲突的持续时间及其对**油价**（oil prices）的具体影响，一度让市场充满不确定性。尽管**总统**（president）曾试图通过言语干预来稳定油价，但战争的持久性超出了许多人的预期，导致油价持续攀升。这种不确定性也反映在**金融市场**（market）的**波动性**（volatile）中，市场在**定价**（pricing）**美联储政策**（Fed policy）预期时，经历了显著的调整。年初时，市场普遍预期美联储将实施数次**降息**（cuts），但随着战争的爆发，这些预期被逐步消化，甚至一度出现了**加息**（rate hike）的概率。

然而，在外部冲击之下，**美国经济**（US economy）的韧性也显现出来。**劳动力市场**（labor market）数据显示出超预期的强劲表现，**消费者支出**（consumer spending）也保持了**弹性**（resilient）。因此，尽管油价波动剧烈，但在进入本次FOMC会议时，整体经济状况依然稳健。

本次会议之前，市场普遍预期将是一场“沉闷”（boring）的会议，几乎没有交易员预计美联储会有任何实质性行动。我个人关注的焦点，更多是鲍威尔在卸任主席后**未来动向**（what Chair Powell would do after his chairmanship ends）。按照惯例，美联储主席通常会在任期结束后辞去理事职务，为总统任命新任者腾出空间。但在上次会议上，鲍威尔曾暗示他可能会选择继续留任理事，因此我期待这次会议能带来更多这方面的**明确信息**（clarity）。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

Hello
 my
 friends.
 Today
 is
 April
 29th


and
 this
 is
 my
 April
 FOMC
 debrief.
 All


right,
 so
 I
 just
 finished
 watching
 the


final
 J.
 Powell
 press
 conference
 and


honestly
 it's
 a
 little
 bit
 sad.
 I've


been
 watching
 Powell
 for
 for
 years
 and


years
 and
 at
 the
 end
 of
 the
 day
 I
 think


Powell
 was
 someone
 that
 is
 very
 smart


and
 did
 what
 he
 believed
 to
 be
 best
 for


this
 country.
 At
 the
 end
 of
 the
 day
 I


think
 Powell
 was
 a
 good
 Fed
 chair.
 Next


time
 we'll
 have
 Kevin
 and
 you
 know
 we'll


see
 what
 happens
 then.
 Now
 before
 we


continue,
 let's
 level
 set
 a
 little
 bit


as
 to
 what
 happened
 in
 the
 intermedating


period.
 The
 elephant
 in
 the
 room
 over


the
 past
 few
 weeks
 of
 course
 has
 been


the
 war
 in
 Iran.
 No
 one
 knew
 how
 long
 it


would
 take
 or
 what
 it
 would
 do
 to
 oil


prices.
 I
 think
 the
 president
 did
 his


best
 to
 jawbone
 oil
 prices,
 but
 at
 the


end
 of
 the
 day,
 I
 think
 the
 war
 lasted


longer
 than
 many
 expected
 and
 oil
 prices


continued
 to
 march
 higher.
 The
 market


has
 been
 looking
 at
 this
 and
 been
 very


volatile
 in
 pricing
 its
 expectations
 of


Fed
 policy.
 Now
 in
 the
 beginning


earlier
 in
 the
 year
 the
 market
 was


pricing
 in
 a
 few
 cuts
 but
 since
 the


commencement
 of
 the
 war
 the
 market
 took


those
 cuts
 out
 and
 even
 priced
 in
 some


probability
 of
 a
 rate
 hike
 really


fluctuating
 along
 with
 oil
 prices.
 Now


not
 withstanding
 that
 looking
 at
 the


labor
 market
 labor
 market
 data
 has
 been


stronger
 than
 expected
 and
 consumer


spending
 data
 has
 been
 resilient
 as


well.
 So
 overall
 during
 the


intermedating
 period
 although
 we
 did


have
 a
 lot
 of
 volatility
 in
 oil
 prices


the
 economy
 the
 US
 economy
 seems
 fine.


So
 heading
 into
 this
 meeting
 this
 was


widely
 expected
 to
 be
 a
 very
 boring


meeting.
 The
 market
 uh
 did
 not
 price
 in


basically
 any
 probability
 of
 the
 Fed


doing
 anything.
 Um,
 what
 I
 was
 focusing


on
 heading
 into
 this
 meeting
 is
 to
 learn


more
 about
 what
 Chair
 Powell
 would
 do


after
 his
 chairmanship
 ends.
 After
 all,


it
 is
 customary
 for
 a
 Fed
 chair
 to


resign
 from
 the
 board
 and
 allow
 the


president
 to
 appoint
 someone
 to
 replace


him.
 But
 last
 meeting,
 Cher
 Pow
 hinted


at
 that
 uh
 maybe
 he
 would
 just
 kind
 of


stay
 on.
 And
 so
 I
 was
 looking
 for
 more


clarity
 to
 that
 today.
</details>

### FOMC会议的意外：鹰派分歧与政策语言的博弈

然而，本次会议的开始却相当出人意料。在2:00公布的FOMC声明中，我们看到的并非预期的一个**分歧意见**（descent），而是**四个**。虽然此前普遍预期**Governor Moran**（莫兰州长）会再次表达他倾向于**降息**（rate cuts）的立场，但这次的特殊之处在于，另外三位知名**鹰派**（hawkish）的**美联储主席**（Fed presidents）—— **Logan**（洛根）、**Hammock**（汉莫克）和**Qashqari**（卡什加里）——也加入了分歧行列。

他们的**异议焦点**（desented on）并非利率决策本身（他们对维持当前利率水平表示认同），而是声明中的**措辞**（language）——特别是那句暗示“**下一步**（next move）将是**降息**（Fed cut）”的表述。从字面上看，这似乎是中性表述，但对于经验丰富的**美联储观察者**（Fed watcher）来说，这标志着一种**宽松倾向**（easing bias）。在过去的类似情况下，美联储曾以此来强烈暗示市场，下一步行动将是降息，具体降息次数将取决于经济数据。

这三位鹰派官员的反对，以及他们似乎倾向于使用“**加息**（hike）”作为潜在的下一步行动的语言，凸显了他们对**两面风险**（two-sided risk）的看法，这在当前环境下是完全合理的。尤其考虑到**油价**（oil prices）和**汽油价格**（gasoline prices）的上涨，以及**中东地区**（Middle East）局势可能引发新一轮**通胀**（inflation）的可能性。这次关于政策方向的争论，预示着短期内难以迅速平息，也为未来的政策走向增添了不确定性。当**Kevin**（凯文）接任主席后，这个鹰派阵营很可能依然存在，甚至可能成为首位在公开场合对委员会决议表示异议的美联储主席。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

Uh, but actually
 the meeting
 began
 with


kind
 of
 a
 bang.
 So,
 first
 at
 2:00
 when


we
 got
 the
 uh
 the
 FOMC
 statement,
 we
 saw


not
 one
 descent,
 but
 four.
 Now,
 everyone


is
 expecting
 one
 descent
 from
 Governor


Moran,
 who
 customarily
 would
 like
 to


have
 more
 rate
 cuts,
 which
 he
 did
 again.


But
 what
 was
 special
 this
 time
 was
 that


we
 actually
 had
 three
 other
 people
 form


a
 hawkish
 dissenting
 block.
 Now,
 these


are
 well-known
 uh
 Fed
 presidents
 that


are
 hawkish.
 It's
 uh
 President
 Logan


Hammock
 and
 Qashqari.
 And
 what
 these


people
 desented
 on
 again
 was
 not
 the


rate
 decision.
 They
 were
 totally
 okay


with
 keeping
 rates
 where
 they
 were.
 They


were
 dissenting
 upon
 the
 language
 in
 the


statement
 which
 suggested
 that
 the
 next


move
 the
 next
 move
 would
 be
 a
 Fed
 cut.


Now
 looking
 at
 the
 sentence
 itself,
 you


will
 see
 that
 you
 know
 on
 its
 face
 it


doesn't
 seem
 like
 there's
 much
 bias
 in


in
 it.
 Uh
 but
 if
 you
 are
 a
 Fed
 watcher


and
 looking
 at
 the
 Fed
 history,
 this


statement,
 this
 language
 was
 basically


initially
 rolled
 out
 in
 the
 past
 when


the
 Fed
 was
 strongly
 hinting
 at
 uh
 to


the
 market
 that
 the
 next
 l
 the
 next
 move


will
 be
 a
 cut
 and
 how
 many
 cuts
 is
 going


to
 be
 up
 to
 the
 data.
 So
 by
 keeping
 this


sentence
 in
 in
 the
 um
 statement
 the
 Fed


presidents
 who
 who
 obviously
 have
 been


working
 at
 the
 Fed
 for
 a
 number
 of
 years


knew
 that
 this
 is
 an
 easing
 bias
 and


disagreed
 with
 it.
 What
 they
 wanted
 it


seemed


was
 to
 have
 language
 that
 says
 hey
 the


next
 move
 could
 potentially
 be
 a
 hike.


So
 basically
 more
 two-sided
 risk
 which


is
 actually
 totally
 reasonable.
 After


all,
 if
 you
 look
 at
 what's
 happening


with
 oil
 prices,
 with
 gasoline
 prices,


there
 is
 a
 possibility
 that
 we
 could


have
 a
 wave
 of
 inflation
 depending
 on


what
 happens
 in
 the
 Middle
 East.
 So,


that
 was
 kind
 of the
 exciting
 thing


there
 and
 that's
 not
 going
 to
 be


resolved
 for
 for
 some
 time.
 When
 Kevin


comes
 in
 as
 chairman,
 uh
 that
 hawkish


block
 will
 still
 be
 there
 and
 I'm


guessing
 that
 Kevin
 will
 probably
 want


to
 have
 great
 cuts
 and
 who
 knows,
 he
 may


be
 the
 first
 Fed
 chair
 to
 actually


descent
 against
 his
 own
 committee.
</details>

### 鲍威尔的去留与美联储的独立性：一次不同寻常的决定

本次会议的另一个重要看点，是**鲍威尔**（Cherpo/Powell）关于他**未来去向**（path forward）的清晰表态。他首先提到，欢迎**哥伦比亚特区美国检察官**（US attorney for the District of Columbia）上周五关闭其对他的**刑事调查**（criminal investigation）的决定。检察官同时指出，除非有**刑事转介**（criminal referral），否则**司法部**（Department of Justice）承诺不会重启调查，也不会在新传票。

鲍威尔明确表示，在本次**刑事调查**（investigation）完全清晰、有最终定论之前，他不会卸任**美联储理事会**（board）。他将继续担任理事，直至调查“圆满结束，公开透明”（well and truly over with transparency and finality）。他对于近期事态的发展表示“受到鼓舞”（encouraged），并将密切关注剩余的流程。他强调，其未来的决策将完全基于“**最佳利益**”（best interest）的考量，服务于**机构**（institution）及其服务的**公众**（people we serve）。

在2026年5月15日，他将卸任**美联储主席**（chair）一职，但会继续以**理事**（governor）的身份留任一段时间，具体时长待定。他计划在理事期间保持低调，因为他认为“**美联储**（Federal Reserve Board）只有一个主席”（There's only ever one chair）。一旦**Kevin Worsh**（凯文·沃什）确认并宣誓就职，他将成为新任主席。

鲍威尔选择继续留任理事，一个重要原因是，他对**美联储及其自身**（the Fed and into him）所遭受的**刑事调查**（criminal investigation）感到非常不安。他坦言，总统的公开批评和言论并未让他过多困扰，但**针对他本人和美联储的刑事诉讼**（criminal action, the criminal pro the criminal proceedings against him and the Fed）则触及了他的“**红线**”（red line）。他认为这威胁到了**美联储的独立性**（Fed independence），因此他将留任，直到他感到满意为止，这可能持续到**中期选举**（midterms）之后，尤其是在**共和党**（Republicans）可能失去参议院控制权的情况下。此举也暗示，如果**总统**（President Trump）不对鲍威尔和美联储采取如此激进的态度，他或许能获得一个额外的理事职位。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

Now, the second thing
 that I thought


super
 interesting
 about
 this
 time
 was,


of
 course,
 Cherpo
 being
 crystal
 clear


about
 his
 path
 forward.
 Let's
 listen
 to


what
 he
 says.
 I
 welcomed
 the


announcement
 last
 Friday
 by
 the
 US


attorney
 for
 the
 District
 of
 Columbia


that
 she
 had
 closed
 the
 criminal


investigation.
 She
 also
 noted,
 however,


that
 she
 would
 not
 hesitate
 to
 restart


the
 investigation.


Over
 the
 weekend,
 the
 Department
 of


Justice
 provided
 assurances
 that
 they


will
 not
 reopen
 the
 investigation
 unless


there's
 a
 criminal
 referral
 from
 the


Fed's
 inspector
 general.
 And
 absent
 such


a
 referral,
 if
 they
 do
 appeal
 the
 recent


court
 decision,
 they
 would
 not
 seek,
 as


part
 of
 that
 appeal
 to
 restart
 the


investigation
 or
 send
 new
 subpoenas.


I've
 said
 that
 I
 will
 not
 leave
 the


board
 until
 this
 investigation
 is
 well


and
 truly
 over
 with
 transparency
 and


finality
 and
 I
 stand
 by
 that.
 I'm


encouraged
 by
 recent
 developments
 and


I'm
 watching
 the
 remaining
 steps
 in
 this


process
 carefully.


My
 decisions
 on
 these
 matters
 will


continue
 to
 be
 guided
 entirely
 by
 what
 I


believe
 is
 in
 the
 best
 interest
 of
 the


institution
 and
 the
 people
 we
 serve.


After
 my
 term
 as
 chair
 ends
 on
 May
 15,
 I


will
 continue
 to
 serve
 as
 a
 governor
 for


a
 period
 of
 time.
 To
 be
 determined,
 I


plan
 to
 keep
 a
 low
 profile
 as
 a


governor.
 There's
 only
 ever
 one
 chair
 of


the
 Federal
 Reserve
 Board.
 When
 Kevin


Worsh
 is
 confirmed
 and
 sworn
 in,
 he
 will


be
 that
 chair.
 So,
 like
 he
 mentioned,
 he


is
 going
 to
 stay
 on
 as
 Fed
 governor


after
 his
 chairmanship
 ends
 largely


because
 he
 doesn't
 like
 what
 happened


with
 um
 with
 the
 criminal
 investigation


into
 the
 Fed
 and
 into
 him.
 Uh
 in
 his
 own


words,
 he
 was
 not
 really
 bothered
 by
 uh


the
 president
 being
 vocal,
 being
 mean,


and
 saying
 things
 about
 him.
 He
 was


really,
 really
 bothered
 by
 the
 criminal


action,
 the
 criminal
 pro
 the
 criminal


proceedings
 against
 him
 and
 the
 Fed.


that
 in
 his
 mind
 was
 a
 red
 line
 that
 was


crossed.
 And
 so
 because
 of
 that,
 my


sense
 is
 that
 he
 feels
 that
 the
 Fed


independence
 is
 threatened
 and
 he's


going
 to
 stay
 on
 the
 Fed
 until
 he
 feels


comfortable
 that
 um
 until
 he
 feels


comfortable.
 And
 that
 could
 potentially


be,
 let's
 say,
 all
 the
 way
 through


midterms.
 Let's
 say
 that
 the
 Republicans


lose
 the
 Senate
 so
 that
 a
 future


position,
 future
 Trump
 governor
 could


never
 be
 confirmed
 or
 very
 difficult
 to


be
 confirmed
 and
 maybe
 he
 would
 leave


then.
 Uh
 nobody
 knows,
 only
 Cher
 Powell


knows
 and
 we'll
 see
 how
 things
 unfold.


Uh
 but
 the
 implication
 of
 course
 is
 that


if
 President
 Trump
 had
 not
 been
 so


aggressive
 in
 his
 uh
 treatment
 towards


uh
 of
 Powell
 and
 of
 the
 Fed,
 maybe
 he


might
 have
 had
 an
 extra
 Fed
 position
 to


fill.
 So
 that
 strategy
 did
 not
 seem
 to


work.
</details>

### 鲍威尔的审慎经济观：油价对通胀与增长的双重影响

值得注意的是，鲍威尔在此次新闻发布会上并未表现出极端**鹰派**（hawkish）的立场。尽管他承认**高油价**（high gas prices）会给**通胀**（inflation）带来**上行压力**（upward pressure），但他反复强调，高昂的油价也会**抑制消费者支出**（less money to spend on other things），从而产生**负面的经济增长影响**（negative growth impact）。这种**负面影响**（negative growth impact）在一定程度上可以**缓和**（moderate）**通胀的冲动**（inflationary impulse），同时，这也引发了对**美联储就业目标**（Fed's employment mandate）的担忧。

因此，即使**高油价**（high oil prices）持续一段时间，理论上存在一个临界点（可能在120、130或140美元），市场届时将不再预期**额外的加息**（additional Fed hikes），反而可能开始**定价降息**（price in Fed cuts）。这是因为高油价对经济增长的冲击可能**压倒**（overwigh）其带来的通胀效应。虽然几周前市场曾有少量迹象显示出这种定价倾向，但目前油价正在飙升，这种“降息定价”尚未成为主流。最终，市场可能会根据数据，找到一个**油价水平**（level of oil prices），在此之上，**加息**（hikes）将不再是首选，而**降息**（cuts）则更有可能发生。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

Now, one other thing
 that I note


in
 this
 press
 conference
 that
 I
 thought


was
 interesting
 was
 that,
 you
 know,
 Cher


Pal
 himself
 didn't
 seem
 very
 hawkish.
 uh


in
 a
 sense
 that
 he
 was
 noting
 that
 even


though
 high
 gas
 prices
 of
 course
 would


have
 an
 upward
 pressure
 on
 inflation,
 he


also
 repeatedly
 emphasized
 that
 well
 if


people
 have
 to
 pay
 higher
 gas
 prices


that
 means
 they
 have
 less
 money
 to
 spend


on
 other
 things
 as
 well.
 So
 that
 has
 a


negative
 growth
 impact
 that
 could
 impact


in
 part
 moderate
 the
 inflationary


impulse
 of
 high
 oil
 prices
 and
 of
 course


it
 also
 raises
 concerns
 about
 uh
 the


Fed's
 employment
 mandate.
 So
 even
 if
 we


do
 have
 extended
 period
 of
 um
 oil
 price


high
 oil
 prices
 there
 is
 a
 point
 certain


point
 I
 don't
 know
 where
 it
 is
 it
 could


be
 120
 it
 could
 be
 130
 it
 could
 be
 140


where
 the
 market
 will
 not
 price
 in


additional
 Fed
 hikes
 in
 response
 to
 this


but
 actually
 price
 in
 Fed
 cuts
 because


the
 growth
 impact
 of
 higher
 oil
 prices


will
 overwwayigh
 the
 inflationary


impacts.
 So,
 we
 did
 see
 that
 a
 little


bit
 earlier
 a
 few
 weeks
 ago,
 but
 it's


it's
 not
 it's
 not
 it's
 we're
 not
 seeing


it
 today
 at
 least,
 and
 oil
 prices
 are


surging.
 So
 um
 at
 the
 end
 of
 the
 day
 it


seems
 what
 will
 happen
 is
 that
 there
 is


some
 kind
 of
 u


sweet
 spot
 where
 you
 could
 have
 oh well


I
 wouldn't
 say
 sweet
 spot
 there
 is
 some


level
 of
 oil
 prices
 where
 you
 would


actually
 get
 hikes
 and
 beyond
 which
 you


would
 actually
 get
 cuts
 and
 I
 guess
 the


market
 will
 feel
 that
 as
 the
 data
 goes


on.
</details>

### 会议收尾与未来展望：新主席的挑战与不确定性

本次会议的全部内容已告一段落。展望未来，我们将很快迎来新任**美联储主席**（fetcher/chair）在下一次会议上的首次亮相。这将是一次备受关注的事件，充满**未知数**（up in the air）。有迹象表明，新任主席**Kevin Warish**（凯文·沃里什）可能不太倾向于召开新闻发布会，或者至少会减少其频率。因此，未来美联储的沟通方式和政策走向，都存在相当大的不确定性。我们将密切关注事态的发展，并适时进行分析。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

All right
 so
 that's
 all
 I
 prepared


for
 today.
 Um
 looks
 like
 uh
 we
 we'll


hear
 soon
 from
 what
 the
 new
 fetcher
 uh


will
 be
 at
 the
 next
 meeting.
 It's
 going


to
 be
 his
 first.
 It's
 going
 to
 be
 very


interesting.
 There
 are
 some
 hints
 that


maybe
 uh
 Kevin
 Warish
 actually
 doesn't


want
 to
 do
 conferences
 or
 at
 least
 not


as
 many.
 So,
 uh
 everything
 is
 up
 in
 the


air.
 We'll
 find
 out
 soon.
 Talk
 to
 you


all
 this
 weekend.
</details>