--- author: New York Times Podcasts date: '2026-10-05' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dBxDAYVEag speaker: New York Times Podcasts tags: - senate-election - midterm-elections - political-polling - candidate-quality - swing-states title: 中期选举民调逆转：民主党为何在深红州异军突起，反而在传统蓝州陷入苦战？ summary: 《纽约时报》最新锡耶纳民调揭示了中期选举参议院争夺战中出人意料的逆转态势：民主党候选人在德克萨斯、阿拉斯加、俄亥俄等特朗普大胜的深红州表现优异、取得领先；然而在缅因、密歇根等传统蓝州和摇摆州却举步维艰。首席政治分析师内特·科恩深入剖析了总统支持率下滑、候选人个人品质差异以及选民跨党派动摇背后的复杂选情动态。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: politics-society area: geopolitics project: [] people: [] companies_orgs: - The New York Times - Siena College products_models: [] media_books: - The Daily status: evergreen --- ### 逆转的选情格局：深红州的意料之外 **迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 这里是《纽约时报》，我是**迈克尔·巴巴罗**（Michael Barbaro）。欢迎收听《每日新闻》（The Daily）。 来自《纽约时报》的一组最新民意调查显示，民主党候选人在下个月的中期选举中，在他们必须拿下的那些用于翻转美国参议院控制权的**红州**（red states）表现异常出色。但在理论上对他们而言应该容易得多的**蓝州**（blue states），他们的表现却相对不尽如人意。今天，我的同事、首席政治分析师**内特·科恩**（Nate Cohn）将为我们解析这组数据背后的原因与逻辑。 今天是10月5日，星期一。内特，欢迎回到节目。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: From the New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is the Daily. A new set of polls from the Times finds that Democratic candidates are doing remarkably well in the red states that they need to win to flip control of the US Senate in next month's midterm elections. But they're doing less well in the blue states that in theory should be far easier for them to win. Today, my colleague, chief political analyst Nate Cohn offers his theory of what's behind the numbers. It's Monday, October 5th. Nate, welcome back.
**内特·科恩**: 迈克尔，非常感谢你的邀请。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: Michael, thank you for having me.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 这么快又见面了。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: And back so soon.
**内特·科恩**: 每年这个时候都是如此忙碌。我想你很快就会把我抛在脑后了。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: It's that time of year. You'll forget about me soon.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 我们绝不可能忘记你。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: We could never forget about you.
**内特·科恩**: 你真是太客气了。不过你可以放心，我绝不会忘记你的。[笑声]
Original English **Nate Cohn**: So kind. You can rest assured I will not forget about you. [laughter]
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 好的，内特。在你上次参加节目时，你曾明确解释过，民主党如果想在此次中期选举中翻转对美国参议院的控制权——这对他们而言确实是一个真切存在的可能性——他们就必须在某些州赢得席位。用你在上次对话中的原话来说，那些都是民主党在常规情况下“根本没有任何胜算”的红州。或者换句话说，共和党人原本只需要守住他们在**特朗普时代**（Trump era）一贯能够赢下的那些基本盘席位，就能继续牢牢掌控参议院。这基本上就是你当时的核心分析。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Okay, Nate, in your last appearance on the show, you explained that to flip control of the United States Senate, which is a genuine possibility in these midterms for Democrats, that they would have to win seats in states, to use your words in that last conversation, that Democrats have no business winning red states. Or put differently, Republicans could keep control of the Senate by winning the kinds of seats that they always win in the Trump era. That was basically your analysis.
**内特·科恩**: 确实如此。要赢得参议院，即便其他所有环节都顺风顺水、毫无闪失，民主党也必须在至少两个在上一届总统大选中被特朗普以至少11个百分点的优势赢下的州取得胜利。而在传统的联邦选举常理中，民主党人在这些州本该是毫无立足之地的。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: That's right. To win the Senate, the Democrats must, even if everything else goes right, win at least two states that Trump won by at least 11 points in the last presidential election. states that traditionally the Democrats have no business winning in a federal election.
### 红州突破：超出预期的民调数据 **迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 没错。正因如此，这对民主党人来说本来是一场极其艰难的硬仗。然而，你刚刚针对正在进行参议院关键选举的每一个共和党大本营州展开了深入的民调调查。在逐一调查了这些竞选之后，你却发现，曾经被视作不可能完成的任务，现在看来似乎并非毫无可能。请谈谈你们具体调查了哪些州，以及你们究竟发现了什么？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Right. So that makes it a real uphill battle for Democrats. But you have just gone into each one of these Republican states where these Senate races are happening and you have pulled each one of these races and you have found that what was once seen as impossible might not be so impossible. So talk about which states you pulled and what you found.
**内特·科恩**: 是的，我们专门调查了民主党看似胜算最大的五个红州：**俄亥俄州**（Ohio）、**德克萨斯州**（Texas）、**爱荷华州**（Iowa）、**阿拉斯加州**（Alaska）以及**堪萨斯州**（Kansas）。这五个州在2024年总统大选中都曾以至少11个百分点的差距投票支持特朗普。而我们的调查结果显示，民主党在这全部五个州中都展现出了极其强大的竞争力。 具体来说，我们发现在其中三个州——德克萨斯、阿拉斯加和俄亥俄——民主党候选人拥有显著的领先优势；在堪萨斯州，双方势均力敌、战成平手；而在爱荷华州，共和党仅仅维持着象征性的1个百分点的微弱微澜优势。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: Yeah, we pulled the five red states where the Democrats seem to have their best chance of winning. Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Kansas. All five of those states voted for Trump by at least 11 points in 2024. And we found the Democrats were really highly competitive in all five of them. We found them with meaningful leads in three of the states, Texas, Alaska, and Ohio. We found the race tied in Kansas and we had the Republicans with a nominal one-point edge in Iowa.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 内特，民主党居然能够在三个根深蒂固的共和党红州建立实质性的领先优势，而且在另外两个州也基本打成平手，这听起来具有非常重大的政治含义。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Nate, this feels quite meaningful that Democrats have real leads in three solidly Republican red states and are basically tied in the other two.
**内特·科恩**: 这简直非同寻常。我的意思是，如果从历史长远的角度来审视这一现象，民主党哪怕仅仅拿下其中任何一个州，都堪称破天荒的非凡壮举。这足以打破近十年来在整个政治版图中形成的政治极化常态与惯性模式。然而如今，他们不仅在其中三个州处于领先，而且在全部五个州都有切实的翻盘希望。这不仅是在争取胜利，更是在把深红色的传统地盘强行转变为竞争激烈的前线战场，几乎把它们变成了不折不扣的摇摆州。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: It's extraordinary. I mean, to take a historic perspective on this, for the Democrats to even win one of these states would really be exceptional. It would defy the normal sort of political gravity that has defined politics over the last decade. And here they are leading in three of them and in contention in all five of them, pulling red states into battleground states, into swing states almost.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 内特，到底是什么力量在推动这一切？究竟是什么因素打破了你刚才所说的“政治引力”？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: So what's driving this, Nate? What is defying the political gravity, as you put it?
**内特·科恩**: 是的，我认为可以这样解释：眼下出现了一组极为罕见的特殊政治环境，核心就是一位极其不得民心的共和党总统。在某些具体的竞选席位上，共和党推举出的候选人本身存在严重短板；而在全部这五个州中，民主党无一例外都推选出了实力极其出色的候选人。这些因素相互叠加，似乎足以给民主党人创造一个真实而重大的机会，去达成通常被认为无法企及的目标。 如果追溯根源，首先要看的是**唐纳德·特朗普**（Donald Trump）在这五个州糟糕的民意支持率。在这五个州中，特朗普目前的平均净支持率低至负16个百分点。他的平均支持率仅仅只有40%。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: Yeah, I think that's right. This is an exceptional set of circumstances with a really unpopular Republican president. In some cases, weak Republican candidates and in all five cases strong Democratic candidates and that appears to be enough to give Democrats a real chance to do something that again ordinarily might be seen as impossible. And to start at the top, it begins with Donald Trump's poor ratings in these five states. Across the five states, Trump's net approval rating is negative 16 points. His approval rating across these five states is just 40%.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 让我们退一步想一想，这些可都是特朗普在上一次大选中曾斩获高达56%选票的深红腹地啊。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: And to step back for a second, these are states where Trump won 56% of the vote in the last election.
**内特·科恩**: 所以这直接表明，这些州原本典型的共和党选民基本盘联盟中，有相当庞大的一部分人，对总统在我们在民调中所询问的几乎每一个关键议题上的处理方式感到极其彻底的不满。 这些核心议题包括宏观经济、对外战争、生活负担能力、大部分州的汽油价格，甚至还涵盖了**移民**（immigration）问题。对现任总统来说，数据里看不到任何好消息。而且我还必须特别指出，自我们今年6月上一次对这些州展开民调以来，总统在这些州的支持率又重重地下滑了5个百分点。 这就意味着，随着我们步入竞选季节的最核心阶段，他的政治声望正在坠入一个极为危险的谷底。这种在自己党派最稳固的基本盘州遭遇民意雪崩的现象，在过去历任在任总统身上都是极其罕见的，大概只有2006年或2008年**乔治·W·布什**（George W. Bush）执政后期才能与之相提并论。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: So it it just suggests that a huge chunk of the typical Republican coalition in these states is outright dissatisfied with the president's handling of almost every issue that we asked about in the poll such as the economy, the war, affordability, gas prices in most of these states, immigration as well. There's nothing good here for the president. And I should also point out that the president's approval rating has dropped in these states five points since we pulled them last in June. So, he is falling as we enter the heart of the campaign season to a real danger zone that we didn't see earlier in the year and that I don't think we've seen for an incumbent president in such solid states probably since George W. Bush in 2008 or 2006.
### 候选人素质差异：人品与意识形态的双重突破 **迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 好的。那么让我们转向导致民主党在这些传统红州参议院选战中表现抢眼的第二个关键动因。那就是你刚才提到的，民主党阵营推出了非常强有力的候选人，我猜这也意味着共和党一侧推出的候选人相对软弱？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Okay. Well, let's move on to the second part of what seems to be behind the strength of Democrats in these traditionally red states when it comes to Senate races. And that's what you said are strong candidates on the Democratic side, which I presume means weaker candidates on the Republican side.
**内特·科恩**: 是的。我的意思是，尽管现任总统的支持率已经低迷到了这种地步，但我依然不能确定，单凭这一点是否就足以让民主党在如此深红的州直接夺取胜利——除非他们确实在这五个州找到了最合适不过的五位候选人。 从整体宏观数据来看，在这全部五个州中，对民主党候选人持有好感的选民比例，都要明显高于持反感态度的比例；而与之形成鲜明对照的是，选民对共和党候选人持有反感态度的比例，却普遍高于持好感的比例。请再次牢记，这些可是深红色的州啊！自认是共和党人的选民数量本就远多于民主党人，然而他们却在个人层面上更加青睐民主党候选人。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: Yeah. I mean, as as bad as the president's approval ratings are, I'm not sure it would be enough for Democrats to win states this Republican. If it weren't for the fact that they also seem to have really found the right five candidates in these states, just for a simple overview, in all five of these states, more voters say they have a favorable view of the Democratic candidate than an unfavorable view. And conversely, more voters say they have an unfavorable view of the Republican candidate than a favorable one. Even though again, these are red states. More voters say they're Republicans than Democrats. And yet, they like the Democrat more.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 这确实令人称奇。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: That's fascinating.
**内特·科恩**: 而且民主党候选人所确立的这种优势是非常广泛和深厚的。我们不妨看两个具体的民调设问。首先，“哪位候选人具有更好的**道德品质**（moral character）？”民主党人在所有五个州全部大幅领先。这体现了选民对其个人诚信与道德水准的高度认可。 但或许更令人意外的是另一个设问：“哪位候选人在意识形态上过于偏左，还是过于偏右？”尽管在所有这些红州中，绝大多数选民依然认为整体的**民主党**（Democratic Party）过于激进偏左，但面对具体候选人时，所有五个州的选民却普遍认为**共和党候选人过于偏右**，反而很少有人认为本地的民主党候选人过于偏左。 也就是说，民主党推选出的这些人物，不仅在个人人格魅力上极具吸引力，而且在政治理念上也恰好落在了当地选民完全可以接受的温和区间内——即便这些州本身的底色是如此保守。这在当下的政治生态中绝对是一项了不起的成就。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: And the advantage that the Democratic candidates possess is it's very broad. I mean, just take two questions. Who has the better moral character? The Democrat leads in all five states. So, that's a judgment about their like personal integrity. But even more surprising perhaps, which candidate is too far to the left versus too far to the right, even though in all of these states, voters say the Democratic party is too far to the left. In all five of these states, voters say the Republican candidate is too far to the right and are less likely to say the same of the Democratic candidates. So, the Democrats have nominated people who voters find personally compelling and who they consider to be ideologically acceptable despite how conservative these states are. That's a real feat.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 你的意思是，这些民主党候选人在五个红州取得突破的一个核心原因在于，他们成功摆脱了民主党主流政党品牌的负面牵连与标签。正如你刚才所说，民调显示多数选民依然觉得民主党整体太偏左。 那么，让我们具体聊聊其中一两名特殊的民主党候选人吧。或许我们可以先从堪萨斯州开始？从定义上讲，至少在我有生之年的记忆里，堪萨斯一直与共和党紧紧捆绑在一起。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Hm. You're you're saying that part of the success of these Democratic candidates in these five red states is that they're not associated with the larger Democratic party brand, which as you just said, the poll finds most voters think is too far to the left. So, let's talk about one or two of these Democratic candidates in particular. And let's maybe start with Kansas, which definitionally, at least in my lifetime, has been very strongly identified with Republicans.
### 堪萨斯与德克萨斯案例：打破党派引力的候选人 **内特·科恩**: 堪萨斯州确实是上一届总统大选中这几个州里共和党倾向最严重的一个。但在本次民调中，这里却涌现出了民主党阵营中最受拥戴的候选人——**亚当·汉密尔顿**（Adam Hamilton）。 我认为，亚当·汉密尔顿完美诠释了民主党是如何找到了一位兼具极高个人声望与温和中间派意识形态的理想人选。他是全美规模最大的**联合卫理公会**（United Methodist）教堂的主任牧师。显然，牧师这一崇高神职身份，天然地让选民深信他拥有过硬的道德品格；同时，选民也绝不会轻易将一个资深牧师视作激进极端的政治狂热分子。 不仅如此，他此前没有任何公职竞选或政治投票记录。他从没有在立法机构中为民主党的一大堆有争议法案投过赞成票，因此共和党对手根本抓不到任何可以借题发挥、给他扣帽子的把柄。对于共和党来说，面对这样一位对手实在是非常棘手。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: It is the most Republican state of the bunch in the last presidential election. And it is also the one where the Democrats have, according to this poll, their most popular candidate in Adam Hamilton. And Adam Hamilton, I think, just exemplifies how the Democrats have managed to find someone who is both acceptable on personal grounds and ideologically a moderate. He is a pastor of the largest United Methodist congregation in the country. And certainly by being a pastor, you would presume that he's of good moral character. You would also be less likely to assume that he's an ideological radical. And for good measure, he has no electoral track record. This is not someone who has voted for a bunch of Democratic bills in the past. There's nothing that the Republicans can really tag him with. It's a very challenging person for them to run against.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 那么汉密尔顿在堪萨斯面对的共和党对手情况如何？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: And what about the Republican candidate in Kansas that Hamilton faces?
**内特·科恩**: 作为共和党候选人，现任参议员**罗杰·马歇尔**（Roger Marshall）本身并不是一名强力的候选人。他虽然顶着现任者的头衔，但过去在选举中的战绩一直低于预期。2020年大选时，他在堪萨斯作为共和党人的得票表现就谈不上亮眼。即便他当时顺利当选，除了他在华盛顿亦步亦趋支持特朗普的投票记录之外，他自身还背负着各种各样的政治包袱与负资产。其中最突出的莫过于与**新冠疫情**（Covid）相关的重大失策，民主党人目前正在全州各大媒体上密集投放抨击他的政治广告。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: As the Republican candidate, Roger Marshall is not a very strong candidate. He's he is the incumbent, but he is someone who has underperformed in the past. He did not do especially well in 2020 for a Republican in Kansas. Even though he won comfortably, he has all kinds of liabilities even besides a Trump-aligned voting record in Washington, including liabilities stemming from Covid that the Democrats have been airing advertisements about that in the state.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 把所有这些因素放在一起，堪萨斯州现在看起来竟然成了一个处于第一梯队的核心决战州，而在选举周期之初，根本没人会把这个州放进参议院争夺的版图上。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: And you put all that together and now looks like it could be a top tier battleground state that people didn't have on the map at the beginning of the cycle.
**内特·科恩**: 没错。正如你之前所说，堪萨斯参议院竞选如今已经陷入胶着僵局，演变成了一场不折不扣的前线对决。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: Right. Because as you said earlier, the Kansas Senate race is now a dead heat, very much a battleground.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 那么，内特，请谈谈这种“强有力民主党候选人对抗脆弱共和党候选人”的现象，在其他州是如何上演的，比如德克萨斯州或者阿拉斯加州？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: So talk Nate about how this question of strong Democratic candidate, weak Republican candidate plays out elsewhere, for example, I guess in Texas or Alaska.
**内特·科恩**: 在民主党拥有稳定领先优势的全部三个州里，情况几乎如出一辙。 在**德克萨斯州**，民主党候选人**詹姆斯·塔拉里科**（James Talarico）领先共和党候选人**肯·帕克斯顿**（Ken Paxton）整整6个百分点；在**阿拉斯加州**，民主党众议员**玛丽·佩尔托拉**（Mary Peltola）领先共和党现任参议员**丹·沙利文**（Dan Sullivan）7个百分点；在**俄亥俄州**，民主党老牌参议员**谢罗德·布朗**（Sherrod Brown）同样确立了稳固的领先地位。 在这些竞选中，我认为聚焦德克萨斯州是一个最直观、最具代表性的切入点。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: It's clearly the story in all three of the states where the Democrats have a comfortable lead. That's Texas where James Talerico is up six points over Republican Ken Paxton. Alaska, where Democrat Mary Peltola is up seven points over Republican Dan Sullivan and Ohio where Democrat Sherrod Brown leads. And of those races, I think maybe focusing on Texas is an easy one.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 当然，请详细说说。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Sure, please.
**内特·科恩**: 如果说亚当·汉密尔顿是本次民调中最受欢迎的政治明星，那么德克萨斯州的共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿，则是整项民调中公众形象最差、净好感度垫底的候选人。他的政治丑闻和官司麻烦并非新鲜事，收听节目的很多听众可能早就耳熟能详。 他曾被本党把持的州众议院正式发起**弹劾**（impeachment）；他常年身陷多项刑事指控与法律调查；他在公共政策上的立场处于极端极化边缘。更致命的是，他在德克萨斯州绝非无名小卒，全州几乎人尽皆知。通常情况下，选民对参议院候选人的了解有限，但在这场选举中，高达85%的德州受访选民能够对帕克斯顿给出明确评价，而其中**反感他的选民占到了绝对多数**。 相比之下，民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科则呈现出截然不同的特质。他曾经是一名公立学校教师，后来进入神学院深造，目前是一名州众议员。他同样拥有极佳的个人道德公信力，既带着温和的公共服务底色，又具备卓越的雄辩演说才能。而在德克萨斯州，这一点尤为关键：德州不仅是全美增长最快的大州之一，而且拥有比例极高且非常年轻的人口结构。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: If Adam Hamilton is the most popular candidate in the poll, the Republican candidate in Texas, Ken Paxton is the least popular candidate in the poll. His political woes are are not new and may be familiar to many people listening right now. He was impeached by his own party. He's faced criminal indictments. He is taking extremely controversial positions. And critically, he's very well known. Oftentimes, in a Senate race, voters aren't totally sure who the candidate is, but in this case, 85% of voters have an opinion about Paxton, and it's quite negative. And by contrast, the Democratic candidate is James Talarico, who was a public school teacher, went to seminary, is a state representative. He too has the same kind of strong moral standing and is charismatic, but is in a state that is growing rapidly and also has a disproportionately young population.
**内特·科恩**: 民调数据进一步显示，詹姆斯·塔拉里科在**拉丁裔选民**（Latino voters）群体中拿下了超过60%的压倒性选票，其领先优势接近30个百分点。单凭拉丁裔选民的这种惊人转向，就足以让德克萨斯在这一选举周期直接蜕变为主力争夺的决战州。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: And in the poll, James Talarico has more than 60% of the vote among Latino voters. He's up by nearly 30 points. And alone, the Latino vote is enough to make that state into a battleground this cycle.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 这太耐人寻味了。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Fascinating.
### 温和共和党人的出走：潜伏十年的反弹 **内特·科恩**: 但这还只是表面第一层维度的解释。我们必须牢记，这些州长期以来都是极其可靠的共和党稳固地盘。民主党要想在这里确立优势，就必须成功打入并争取到一群他们平时根本无法企及的特殊选民群体。 我们经常会有一种误解，以为共和党在各个层面都是铁板一块的高度团结，然而事实并非如此。在这些深红州内部，始终存在着一部分传统、温和、受过良好教育的共和党选民，他们在骨子里从未真正全盘接纳过特朗普及其背后的政治路线。在当年的总统初选中，无论是早期的**特德·克鲁兹**（Ted Cruz），还是后来的其他温和派挑战者，都曾在这些传统保守派选民中斩获大量支持。 而现在，随着民主党推出了像亚当·汉密尔顿或詹姆斯·塔拉里科这样个人道德无可挑剔、意识形态温和务实的候选人，原本支撑共和党胜局的地基开始从脚下松动崩塌了。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: But that's just the first layer. These are states that are reliably Republican. for the Democrats to lead here. The Democrats are breaking in to a kind of voter who they just don't usually win. And I think it's important to remember that while the Republican party is really unified in a lot of ways, these are also states that historically had real pockets of anti-Trump Republicanism, places where Ted Cruz did quite well in the 2016 primary, where you have relatively traditional conservative suburban voters who have never really loved the Trump project and who seem willing to break with him, who might even have voted for a Democrat once or twice or who might just dislike Donald Trump. And now that they have candidates who they actually like, that foundation of support that Republicans rely on to just cruise to victory in these states is sort of falling out beneath Republican candidates here.
**内特·科恩**: 也就是说，在整整十年之后，那些最初就对尚未入主白宫的特朗普表达过强烈异议与抗拒的传统共和党温和选民，在这次中期选举中似乎以极具破坏力的方式卷土重来。他们甚至决绝到了开始考虑跨越党派界限、投票给民主党候选人的地步。 我认为，这是解释为什么这些深红州在民调中向左倾斜的幅度甚至超过了其他州的最佳切入点。在漫长的岁月里，这些州内部一直潜伏着这样一群对特朗普风格心存芥蒂但又惯性投票支持共和党的传统选民。然而眼下，面对民主党推选出的极佳人选，加上华盛顿联邦治理层面的重重乱象与失望情绪，他们似乎真的准备做出破天荒的抉择。 毫无疑问，民主党在这些传统红州取得如此强劲的表现，自然令全党上下欢欣鼓舞。但之所以这种红州优势显得如此不可或缺、性命攸关，恰恰是因为一个残酷的反面现实：民主党人在几个理论上较为偏蓝的州，正在遭遇出乎意料的巨大阻力与苦战——而在选举周期开始前，民主党原本认定这些州是囊中之物，更不用说在当前的政治大气候下了。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: So 10 years after those Republican voters registered their objection to not yet President Trump, they are reemerging, it seems, quite powerfully in these states in this midterm and going so far as to consider voting for a Democrat. I think that's the easiest explanation for why maybe these states are racing to the left farther than other states. That all along there has been in these states a traditional group of Republican voters who has never really been comfortable with him has gone along against the Democrats. But now with Democrats putting forward the right folks and with things getting so bad in Washington, they might just be about to do something they've never done before. So, it goes without saying that the Democrats are overjoyed to be doing this well in red states. But their strength in these red states is even more important because the Democrats are actually having an unexpectedly difficult time in several relatively blue states that the Democrats might have assumed they could take for granted at the beginning of the cycle, let alone in this political environment.
### 蓝州陷阱：颠倒的候选人优势法则 **迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 好的。稍后广告之后，我们将深入探讨这个令人颇感违反直觉的现象：为什么民主党在蓝州的日子反而比刚才谈到的红州更加难熬？我们马上回来。 …… 内特，请谈谈你在那些相较于红州更偏蓝或属于传统蓝州的参议院关键选举民调中，到底发现了什么？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Okay. So, we're going to talk about that somewhat counterintuitive idea that Democrats are having a tougher time in blue states right after the break. We'll be right back. So, Nate, talk about what you found in the polling of the key Senate races in the blue or bluer states than the red states that we just talked about.
**内特·科恩**: 是的。除了我们刚刚讨论的五个红州之外，我们还重点民调了三个偏蓝到紫色的关键州：**缅因州**（Maine）、**密歇根州**（Michigan）和**新罕布什尔州**（New Hampshire）。 尽管民主党在红州取得了不可思议的民调突破，但在这些原本更倾向民主党的州里，选情却依然异常紧绷而焦灼。我们发现，在这些州里，现任总统同样极不受欢迎，选民群体同样表达了希望由民主党来控制参议院的强烈愿望。然而，由于这些州特定的候选人组合与个人动态，共和党候选人依然展现出了顽强的竞争力，甚至成功拉拢了一批在常规情况下必然会投给民主党的中间选民。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: Yeah. In addition to the five red states that we just pulled, we also surveyed three blue to purple states, Maine, Michigan, and New Hampshire. And despite these enormous Democratic breakthroughs in the red states, the races are still pretty competitive in these more Democraticleaning states. And they're competitive for the basically the inverse reason, which is that even though the president is unpopular, even though voters want Democrats to control the Senate, these Republican candidates are still competitive anyway. And they're holding their own and win over some voters who would otherwise vote for a Democrat.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 从本质上讲，这就是我们在红州看到的“候选人素质动态”（candidate quality dynamic）的完全反转。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Basically, this is the inversion of the candidate quality dynamic.
**内特·科恩**: 没错，这恰好是红州所发生剧本的精准镜像对立面。而其中最极端的典型案例就是**缅因州**。 在本次调查的所有州中，缅因州是整体政治光谱最偏向民主党的一个。**卡玛拉·哈里斯**（Kamala Harris）在2024年大选中曾以7个百分点的绝对优势拿下缅因州。但令人难以置信的是，在我们刚刚完成的所有各州民调中，缅因州竟然是共和党候选人表现最好的州！共和党老牌参议员**苏珊·柯林斯**（Susan Collins）在我们的民调中实际上领先了3个百分点。 尽管这是所有受访州中最蓝的一个，但冒着重复自己观点的风险，这里的情形其实非常简单明了：虽然缅因州选民对特朗普的施政表现极度不满，并明确希望民主党赢得参议院多数席位，但他们打心底里信任并喜欢苏珊·柯林斯，同时对民主党推选出的候选人**特洛伊·杰克逊**（Troy Jackson）缺乏好感。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: It is the exact laid out in the Republican states. And the the most extreme case is Maine. Maine is of all the states the most Democratic, Kamala Harris won it by seven points in 2024. And believe it or not, of all of the state polls we just did, it is the one where the Republican is doing best. Susan Collins actually led our poll by three points. Even though it's the bluest state of the bunch, at risk of repeating myself, it's a simple story. While voters in the state strongly disapprove of President Trump's performance and want Democrats to control the Senate, they like Susan Collins and they don't like the Democratic candidate Troy Jackson.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 那么，民调数据能帮助解释为什么苏珊·柯林斯能够展现出如此惊人的共和党候选人统治力吗？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: And does this poll help explain why Susan Collins seems to be such a strong Republican candidate?
### 缅因州谜团：苏珊·柯林斯的老而弥坚与特洛伊·杰克逊的困境 **内特·科恩**: 事实上，苏珊·柯林斯在我们调查的几乎每一个考量维度上都斩获了高分。选民认为她是一位切实高效、务实尽责的联邦参议员；尽管身处蓝州，大家并不认为她的立场过于偏右。 坦白地说，抛开民意调查不谈，苏珊·柯林斯在过去一场又一场的真实选举胜利中，早已反复证明了自己的非凡韧性。她在缅因州数十年的深厚公共服务声望，为她构筑了坚固不可摧的政治护城河。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: Well, Susan Collins scored well on basically everything we asked about. They think she's an effective senator. They don't think she's too far to the right even though this is a blue state. And to be honest, Susan Collins has demonstrated outside of polling in election victory after election victory that she's a very formidable politician with a personal brand in Maine built over decades of public service there.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 民主党原本指望着，在当前对他们有利的整体政治大环境下，终于能在此次中期选举中将她拉下马。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: The Democratic Party's hope was that in this political environment they could finally bring her down.
**内特·科恩**: 事实证明，至少在我们的这项民调中——当然需要客观指出的是，其他一些民调确实显示特洛伊·杰克逊处于微弱领先，因此我们的数据存在成为离群异常值的可能性——但至少在《纽时》/锡耶纳这项民调中，尽管特朗普的民望极低，缅因州选民依然倾向于再给苏珊·柯林斯一次在华盛顿代表他们的机会。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: And it turns out that at least in this poll, and it's worth noting that other polls do show Troy Jackson ahead, so you know that there's at least a chance that we're an outlier on this. But at least in this poll, despite how unpopular Donald Trump is, Maine voters are still inclined to give Susan Collins yet another shot in Washington.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 我很好奇，缅因州的居民在民调中到底透露了什么，他们为什么对特洛伊·杰克逊如此不感冒？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: I'm curious what Maine residents told us about why they don't like Troy Jackson.
**内特·科恩**: 老实讲，我认为我们的民调其实并没有完全解释透彻特洛伊·杰克逊为何会如此不受欢迎。他在民调中的个人好感度仅为41%，而反感度却高达49%——在一个坚定的蓝州，这个数据简直惨淡无比，远远逊色于其他任何一位民主党候选人。 他当然不是一个完美无瑕的候选人，也谈不上极具领袖魅力的演说家。此外，他获得民主党提名的路径也颇为罕见：由于**格雷厄姆·普拉特纳**（Graham Platner）在7月份退选，他是通过党内特别代表大会被推选补位的。但我必须承认，在全部这八个州的民调中，最大的一个难解之谜就是：特洛伊·杰克逊为什么会遭遇如此强烈的民意反弹？
Original English **Nate Cohn**: I've got to be honest, I don't feel like the poll really did a great job of explaining why Troy Jackson is this unpopular. His rating in the poll is 49% unfavorable, 41% favorable in a blue state. That's much worse than any of the other Democratic candidates. He's not a perfect candidate. He's not the most charismatic figure. He also became the Democratic nominee in an unusual way when he was selected by a convention to replace Graham Platner in July. But I have to say that I think the single biggest mystery across these eight polls is why is Troy Jackson this unpopular?
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 有意思。好的，这就是缅因州的情况。那么关于另外两个偏蓝到摇摆的州——新罕布什尔州和密歇根州，你有什么值得注意的新发现吗？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Interesting. Okay, so that's Maine. Is there anything else notable that you found about the other two blue purple states, New Hampshire and Michigan?
### 密歇根风云：阿卜杜勒·赛义德与撕裂的世代选民 **内特·科恩**: 我认为密歇根州最值得深入剖析。与缅因州不同，密歇根并不是一个“强力共和党老牌对手不可撼动”的故事，而是一个“民主党推选出了一位兼具明显优势与致命软肋的复杂候选人”的故事。 现在的核心悬念在于：这些暴露出的短板与弱点，是否严重到了足以让民主党在原本应手到擒来的大环境下丢掉这个至关重要的阵地？ 民调显示，民主党候选人**阿卜杜勒·赛义德**（Abdul El-Sayed）目前以49%对44%领先共和党对手**迈克·罗杰斯**（Mike Rogers）5个百分点。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: I think Michigan is the one worth focusing on. Unlike Maine, this is not a story of a strong Republican candidate. It's a story of a complicated Democratic candidate who has real strengths and weaknesses. And the question has been, are these weaknesses bad enough severe enough to cost Democrats a state that they should really win easily in this political environment? The poll found Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat, up five points over Mike Rogers 49 to 44.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 但是，当你深入挖掘这项民调的底层细节时，你就会发现民主党在这里依然面临着隐蔽而巨大的风险。他的优势极其突出，但劣势同样触目惊心。眼下各种因素暂时交织成一个温和的微弱领先，但只要天平稍微发生一点倾斜，他可能瞬间就会陷入灭顶之灾。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: But when you look under the hood of this poll, though, I think you see that there are still some risks here for Democrats. Like he really does have these big strengths and big weaknesses in this poll. They all happen to sort out to a modest Democratic lead, but if the balance of them was a little different, then maybe he could be in trouble really quickly.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 那么，请具体谈谈赛义德医生的强项与软肋，并为听众简要梳理一下他的候选人背景。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Well, talk about Elsa's strengths and his weaknesses and just generally remind us about his candidacy.
**内特·科恩**: 好的。回顾一下背景，赛义德医生是一名非常鲜明的进步派候选人。他不仅在政策议题上持有激进的进步派立场，而且在政治生态中长期属于党内的活跃活动家阵营。他的身边聚集了许多备受争议的人物，比如**哈桑**（Hasan Piker）这样在许多选民中好感度极低的网络红人。在密歇根这样一个需要兼顾广泛工薪阶层与温和选民的工业大州，这原本应该构成极其重大的选票拖累。 然而令人瞠目结舌的是，他在**年轻选民**群体中掀起的支持狂潮，几乎是我在我们组织过的历次《纽时》/锡耶纳民意调查中前所未见的。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: Yeah. So, just to back up about Dr. El-Sayed, he is a progressive candidate and not just someone who has progressive views on the issues, but who is part of this sort of activist wing of the party. someone who has surrounded himself with characters like Hasan who by the way is extremely unpopular in the poll. And in Michigan, that might ordinarily be a real liability. And you'd think so, but he is somehow making up for this with a truly mind-boggling showing among young voters that I think is the single strongest performance among young voters in this poll of any time Siena poll ever conducted.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 有史以来的任何一次？
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Ever conducted.
**内特·科恩**: 我认为完全可以说是绝无仅有的。我们做过几百次民调，但他在此次民调的18至29岁年轻选民群体中，竟然以**82%对11%**的夸张悬殊比分碾压对手。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: I think it's possible. But it's, you know, we've done hundreds of them, but he's up 82-11 among 18 to 29 year olds in the poll.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 这可以说是彻底点燃了密歇根的年轻一代。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: That's an electrifying youth of Michigan.
**内特·科恩**: 他至少成功电击般地激发了这群年轻人愿意主动拿起电话接受民意调查。[笑声] 这确实是一个令人惊骇的天文数字。 但我必须指出，将整场竞选的生死完全押注在一个向来飘忽不定、投票率极其难以预测、动员难度极大的年轻选民群体身上，本身就潜藏着极高的战略风险。如果真实的投票日根本无法兑现这种极端的青年投票率，那么他的基本盘就可能瞬间土崩瓦解。 与他在年轻群体中的火爆相反，他在中老年选民群体中的表现却极其糟糕。在45岁以上的选民群体中，他全面落后于对手；而与此同时，在同一份民调的密歇根州长和国会众议院竞选中，其他常规民主党候选人在45岁以上选民中却保持着打平或领先的健康局面。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: He's at least electrifying them to pick up the phone and take a poll about him. So that's [laughter] that's an extraordinary number. I have to say that I feel like there's a little bit of risk entailed in being so dependent on a fickle and difficult to reach voting block. Like if the truth of it is that this is not a generation that typically turns out in huge numbers, then building your entire victory around having massive young voter turnout might be a little scary, especially when by contrast you look at the other Democratic races on the ballot in Michigan, they have completely normal generational profiles where they're competitive among older voters and leading among younger voters, and that helps add up to comfortable leads that are totally straightforwardly Democratic for governor and for Congress as well.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 哇。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Wow.
**内特·科恩**: 是的，他在年长选民中的表现非常疲软，在45岁以上群体中完全落后，而其他民主党人在此年龄段基本能打平甚至领先。 因此，他的政治体质充满了极端两极化的优点与缺陷。如果你是民主党竞选操盘手，你依然会对密歇根感到惴惴不安：如果民调哪怕稍微高估了一点年轻人的热情，而年长选民对他的抗拒又是真实冷酷的，那么这场竞选的真实差距就会比表面看起来紧凑得多。 不过话说回来，他目前在总体上毕竟还是领先5个百分点。你可以从两个完全相反的视角来解读这一点：一方面，在关键摇摆州领先5个点是一个非常可观的实际安全垫；但另一方面，从宏观大局来看，这其实是一次严重的“发挥失常”（underperformance）。事实上，在同一份民调的密歇根州基准政党选票（generic ballot）上，民主党整体领先了整整10个百分点！也就是说，赛义德自身背负的争议，白白折损了民主党在这个州原本应有领先优势的一半。我认为我们确实需要从正反两个维度客观看待他的处境。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: And similarly, he's doing much worse among older voters. He's losing among voters over age 45 whereas the other Democrats are essentially tied or ahead. So there again, he has this mix of strength and weaknesses. And I think that if you're a Democrat, you're still a little bit concerned about this race. If the poll has overstated his strengths a little bit and those weaknesses are real, then suddenly maybe this is a closer race than we think. But again, he's up five. And you can take that one of two ways. On the one hand, five points is a meaningful lead. On the other hand, it's a real underperformance. In fact, the Democrats lead by 10 points on the generic ballot in the poll. So, he's cost Democrats half of the lead they ought to have in this race. So, I I do think we really can look at it evenly and fairly from both perspectives.
### 决胜路径：参议院翻盘的算术逻辑与底层政治裂变 **迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 内特，综合你在全部这八个州所揭示的民调走向，在你看来，民主党翻转参议院控制权的最清晰路径究竟是什么？我并不是要你做占卜式的预言，只是请你纯粹基于这组民调所展现的数据来回答。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Nate, given what the polling you've done in all these eight states reveals, what in your mind is the clearest path for the Senate to flip? And I'm not asking you to prognosticate, just answer based on what the poll found.
**内特·科恩**: 思考这个路径有很多种切入角度，但我们不妨回到本期节目开头提到的核心数学逻辑：即便其他所有阵地都保全无虞，民主党要想翻盘，也必须至少拿下两个特朗普曾以11个百分点以上优势获胜的深红州。 而我们最新的蓝州民调却发出警告：民主党根本无法想当然地认为自己的传统阵地可以安然无恙、万无一失。毕竟我们发现苏珊·柯林斯在缅因州目前依然领先。她最终未必一定能赢下缅因，但如果她真的保住了席位，那么民主党就必须从红州中抢下**整整三个席位**来填补亏空。 正如我在一开始提到的，目前的民调显示，民主党在三个红州（德克萨斯、阿拉斯加、俄亥俄）拥有3个百分点或以上的领先优势。因此，如果这些民调结果百分之百准确兑现，民主党将通过成功翻转**俄亥俄州**、**阿拉斯加州**和**德克萨斯州**来夺取参议院的控制权。哪怕他们输掉了缅因州，抢下这三个红州也足以实现翻盘的目标。 而如果他们在其他预期中的州遭遇挫折失利，民主党就必须通过在堪萨斯州或爱荷华州这种意外战场实现奇迹突破来进行对冲代偿。反过来说，如果民主党最终能够顺利守住缅因州，那么即便在我们在民调中遥遥领先的三个红州里意外丢掉一个，他们依然能够承受得起。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: Well, there are a lot of ways to think about that, but let's use the one we did at the beginning of the episode. The Democrats need to win at least two states that Trump won by 11 points to win, provided everything else goes their way. The blue state polls suggest they can't count on everything going their way. We found Susan Collins leading in Maine after all, and she may not win Maine in the end, but if she did, then Democrats would need three of those red states. As I mentioned at the beginning, the poll has the Democrats ahead by three points or more in three red states. So, if the polls are exactly right, the Democrats would win the Senate by flipping Ohio, Alaska, and Texas. They would lose Maine, but it would still be enough. If they lost other states, the Democrats would need to compensate for that by winning in a state like Kansas or Iowa. And ultimately, if the Democrats ultimately won Maine, then they could afford to lose one of those red states where they have a comfortable lead in our polling.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 明白了。总而言之，参议院的未来依然极其扑朔迷离，试图做任何武断的预测都是盲目的。但无论最终谁能问鼎参议院，对我而言最震撼的一点在于：在通往此次大选的冲刺阶段，民主党在深红州取得的民意涨幅与斩获，竟然极其明确地超过了他们在传统蓝州或常规摇摆州的表现。这在直觉上简直令人难以置信。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Got it. All to say, the future of the Senate is really hard to predict, foolhardy to predict. But regardless of who ends up winning the Senate, I think what's most striking to me anyway is that in the leadup to this election, Democrats quite clearly are making bigger gains in red states than they are in blue or swing states. And that is just very counterintuitive.
**内特·科恩**: 甚至比这更令人匪夷所思，迈克尔：民主党不仅是在红州取得了更大的民意增量，在此项民调中，**民主党在德克萨斯州的数据表现甚至全面好于他们在密歇根州和缅因州的数据表现**！ 显然，一个月后真正的计票结果究竟如何，我们尚需拭目以待。但是，假设这些民调全部完全准确——尽管现实中绝不可能做到严丝合缝——如果真如民调所示，而我们退一步试图去阐释这场大选的本质，我认为我们最终会得出这样的历史定论：**在这场选举中，候选人本身的素质与品质起到了决定生死的关键作用**。 当选民身处一个两大主流政党双双丧失信誉的时代：当**拜登**（Joe Biden）总统的任期彻底未能兑现他所承诺的“回归正常秩序”，当特朗普总统的任期同样未能带来预期的低物价与海外战争的平息，当两个主要政党都深陷前所未有的公众厌弃之中时，选民便本能地开始跨越党派鸿沟，向那些他们认为真正值得信任的具体候选人靠拢聚集——无论那是一位在缅因州拥有几十年深厚公职威望的温和派共和党资深参议员，还是一位在堪萨斯州以仁德著称的民主党教会牧师。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: Even crazier than that, Michael, they're not just making bigger gains. Democrats are doing better in Texas than they are in Michigan and Maine in this poll. And I think that, you know, we'll see what the election result is going to be in a month, obviously. But if these polls were to all be perfectly right, which they won't be, but if they were to be, and we were to step back and try and explain the election, I think what we would say is that in this election, candidate quality was a huge deal. And that at a time when both parties have been discredited, when the Biden presidency just failed to bring the return to normaly that he promised, when the Trump presidency failed to bring low prices and an end to foreign wars, when both parties were unpopular, that voters gravitated toward the candidate that they thought they could trust, whether that was a moderate Republican with experience in Maine or a Democratic pastor in Kansas.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 嗯。因此，解读这组民调的一种深刻方式是：它清楚地告诉我们，广大选民在某种程度上正在集体抛弃与抗拒两党体制本身。因此，在这些最有可能决定参议院控制权归属的关键战场州，凡是不与华盛顿两党主流机器紧密捆绑、不被既有负面政党标签所牢牢束缚的候选人，往往就是最有可能在这场风暴中胜出的人。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Mhm. So, one way of looking at these polls is that they tell us voters are rejecting both parties right now to a certain degree. And so, in these states that are most likely to determine control of the US Senate, being a candidate that is not too closely tied to, tethered to, associated with either is the kind of candidate most likely to win.
**内特·科恩**: 选举结果出炉时，我们会验证这种推论是否完全契合现实。但如果我们从宏观长河中回溯审视：选民对这个国家的前进方向感到满意的日子，已经过去20年了——不，甚至超过了20年，我想选民对国家发展方向感到满意，大概已经是25年前的事情了。 在那漫长的四分之一个世纪里，选民给民主党投过票，也给共和党投过票；他们尝试了建制派的各种组合，也尝试了所有的反建制路径。而在当前这个所有人对停滞现状感到无比沮丧、对两党常规选项彻底绝望的节点上，我们看到过去十年来根深蒂固、不可逾越的传统党派站队模式正在悄然瓦解、松动龟裂，选民们正在极力权衡和探索他们到底能做些什么来真正彻底打破僵局——这丝毫不会让我感到任何意外。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: We will see when the results come in whether that's right. But you know, just stepping back for a second, it has been 20 years since voters were it's been more than 20 years. I think it's been 25 years since voters were satisfied with the direction of the country. They've voted for both parties. They've tried all of this. And at a time when everyone is frustrated and dissatisfied with both the status quo and their usual options have failed, it doesn't surprise me that we're seeing the familiar partisan patterns of the last decade begin to weaken a bit as voters try and consider what they can do to shake things up.
### 新闻简报与尾声 **迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 好的，内特。一如既往，非常感谢你的精彩深入分析。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Well, Nate, as always, thank you very much.
**内特·科恩**: 谢谢你的邀请。每次交流都非常愉快。
Original English **Nate Cohn**: Thank you for having me. Always fun.
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 我们稍后就回来。 以下是今天你需要了解的其他重要新闻资讯： 由于指挥官获悉可能存在与伊朗相关的潜在恐怖袭击威胁，美国在刚刚过去的周末紧急从英格兰南部的一个军事基地撤离了全部12架**B-1战略轰炸机**。此次撤离行动发生在一周前英国警方逮捕了数名在基地附近驾驶白色货车活动的可疑男子之后。该基地被视作潜在的高危袭击目标，因为美军轰炸机在针对伊朗的美以军事行动中一直频繁使用该基地。 另外，《纽约时报》获得的官方内部文件披露了**康奈尔大学**（Cornell University）如何具体严厉处罚了涉嫌性侵一名法庭代号为“无名氏”（Jane Doe）的女性同班同学的七名兄弟会成员。所有涉案男子均否认有任何不当行为。文件显示，其中两名涉案男子已被学校正式开除；另一名已毕业的学生被终身禁止进入校园；还有两人被处以停学处分；其余成员则受到了较轻的纪律处分，其中包括撰写对其个人行为的反思报告。 与此同时……
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. The United States rushed over the weekend to withdraw all 12 of its B1 Air Force bombers from a base in southern England after commanders learned of potential terror attacks tied to Iran. The pull out came a week after British police arrested several men who had been traveling near the base in white vans. The base is seen as a potential target because it's been used by American bombers in the US-Israeli war against Iran. And the New York Times obtained documents showing exactly how Cornell University punished the seven fraternity members accused of sexually assaulting a female classmate known in court records as Jane Doe. All of the men have denied any wrongdoing. The documents show that two of the men were expelled from the university. Another who had already graduated was barred from the campus. Two more were suspended. The remaining men were handed lighter punishments that included writing papers reflecting on their behavior. Meanwhile,
**康奈尔大学校长**: “这是我们学校历史上最艰难的一周之一，我知道你们中的许多人此刻感到无比愤怒、悲伤，并且正在经历艰难的心理煎熬。” 在周末向全校师生发布的一段公开视频讲话中，康奈尔大学校长深切承认了该起案件给受害者及整个校园社区带来的巨大痛苦，并郑重承诺校方的后续应对调查将确保彻底详尽且完全公开透明。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: "This has been one of the most difficult weeks in our history, and I know many of you are angry, saddened, and struggling." In a video message to the campus over the weekend, Cornell's president acknowledged the pain that the case has caused and promised that the university's response would be both thorough and transparent.
**康奈尔大学校长**: “这是康奈尔大学历史上具有定义性的关键时刻。我们必须挺身而出、率先垂范。为了无名氏同学，为了所有性侵幸存者，我们有不可推卸的责任妥善公正地解决这一问题。”
Original English **Cornell's President**: "This is a defining moment in Cornell's history. We must lead the way. We owe it to Jane Doe and to survivors of assault to get this right."
**迈克尔·巴巴罗**: 本期节目由杰西卡·钟（Jessica Chung）与莱克茜·刁（Lexi Diao）联合制作，米歇尔·班贾（Michelle Banja）与埃里克·库普克（Eric Krupke）提供协助。责任编辑为雷切尔·奎斯特（Rachel Quester）。节目音乐由布拉德·费舍尔（Brad Fischer）与丹·鲍威尔（Dan Powell）创作，音频工程由克里斯·伍德（Chris Wood）完成。我们的主题音乐由 Wonderly 制作。 以上就是今天的《每日新闻》。我是迈克尔·巴巴罗。我们明天再会。
Original English **Michael Barbaro**: Today's episode was produced by Jessica Chung and Lexi Diao with help from Michelle Banja and Eric Krupke. It was edited by Rachel Quester, contains music by Brad Fischer and Dan Powell, and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Wonderly. That's it for the daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.