--- author: TVO Today date: '2026-03-20' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8R_MuBeg0w speaker: TVO Today tags: - oil-prices - geopolitics - energy-security - global-economy - oil-shocks title: 全球石油危机下的加拿大：经济、市场与未来展望 summary: 本期节目深入探讨了因伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的行动引发的全球石油供应中断及其对国际市场的影响。专家分析了加拿大作为主要能源出口国的独特地位，探讨了油价飙升对全球经济衰退和通胀的潜在威胁。节目还审视了石油美元体系的未来、加拿大能源基础设施的挑战与机遇，以及该国在能源转型中的战略角色。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: tech-trends area: tech-engineering project: [] people: - Bob Yoger - Rory Johnson - Heather Exnerpo - Jan companies_orgs: - US - Canada - Iran - European Union - China - India - Saudi Arabia - UAE - Iraq - Russia - Mazuo Americas - McDonald Laurier Institute products_models: - WTI crude oil - Brent crude oil - natural gas - petro-dollar system - LNG media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 全球油价危机及其对加拿大影响 **Jan**: 这条水道并非最宽阔。霍尔木兹海峡仅约 167 公里长，最窄处仅 39 公里宽。但它却是当今世界最受关注的事件之一。这是因为它是连接波斯湾和阿拉伯海的唯一海上通道，全球约 1/5 的石油和天然气要经过这里。至少，这是在正常时期的情况。但现在，已非正常时期。为回应美国对伊朗的战争，该国已有效关闭了海峡的所有交通，并威胁要攻击那些藐视禁令的船只。其结果是，全球市场动荡不安，引发了对广泛短缺、价格飙升和中断的担忧，这些状况是世界许多地方自 20 世纪 70 年代以来未曾见过的。那么，此次事件与以往的危机相比如何？它到底有多糟糕？我们将分解可能的场景和风险，以及这对加拿大意味着什么。这是“The Rundown”。
Original English **Jan**: It's not the biggest waterway. The straight of Hormuz is only about 167 km long and just [music] 39 km wide at its narrowest point. But it is one of the biggest [music] stories in the world right now. That's because it's the only maritime passage connecting [music] the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea and about 1/5if of the world's oil [music] and natural gas passes through it. Or at least that's what happens in normal times. These however are not normal times. In response to the USIsrael [music] war against Iran, that country has effectively shut down all traffic through the strait [music] and threatened to attack ships that defy them. The result, global markets are rattled, raising fears we'll get the kinds of widespread shortages, [music] price spikes, and disruptions much of the world hasn't seen since the 1970s. So, how does this moment compare to previous crises? and just how bad could it get? [music] We break down the possible scenarios and risks and where this all leaves Canada. This is the rundown.
**Jan**: 我们之前经历过石油危机。50 年代中期发生了苏伊士运河危机，70 年代中期发生了阿拉伯石油禁运。那么，当前的危机与以往相比如何？如果伊朗关闭了霍尔木兹海峡，会发生什么？
Original English **Jan**: We've seen oil [music] crises before. The Suez crisis of the mid-50s, the Arab oil embargo in the mid70s. So, how does this current crisis compare? And what happens if Iran keeps the straight of Hormuz closed?
**Jan**: Bob Yoger，一位来自 Mazuo Americas 的大宗商品专家，现在加入我们的节目。Bob，很高兴见到你。你怎么样？
Original English **Jan**: [music] Bob Yoger is a commodity specialist with Mazuo Americas and he joins me now on the program. Bob, great to see you. How are you doing?
**Bob Yoger**: 非常好。谢谢你邀请我。
Original English **Bob Yoger**: >> Very good. Thank you for having me.
**Jan**: 我想展示一些数据，这些数据你肯定不陌生。你见过这些。这是一张自 1970 年以来西德克萨斯中质原油价格历史图表。嗯，你可以看到，在 70 年代初期，我们每桶的价格是 3 美元。到了 2020 年代，历史上曾有几次我们达到或超过每桶 100 美元。图中剧烈上涨的曲线表明发生了某种石油冲击，多年来发生了很多次。Bob，请帮我们解释一下现在霍尔木兹海峡到底发生了什么？霍尔木兹海峡以前从未对油轮关闭过。有人说我们现在看到的情况是史无前例的。为什么我们没有看到油价像 2000 年代初、中期那样高？
Original English **Jan**: >> I want to pull up some uh some data that is probably no you're no stranger to. You have seen this. This is a chart of the price history of West Texas Intermediate Oil since 1970. Uh you can see when we start sort of in the 70, we're looking at $3 US per barrel. When we look towards the 2020s, there have been some moments in history where we have hit about a hundred and sometimes over $100 US per barrel. The sharp increases that you'll see indicate some kind of oil shock and there have been many over the years. Bob, help us understand right now what's happening with the strait of Hormas. Hormuz has never been closed uh to tankers like this before. Some have gone on to say that this what we're seeing is unprecedented. Why aren't we seeing oil prices higher uh than say in the early 2000s, mid200s?
**Bob Yoger**: 主要原因是美国，以及在较小程度上是加拿大，现在都是石油生产超级大国。我们，美国，我们每天生产 1380 万桶原油。早在第一次伊拉克战争初期，嗯，我当时就在交易大厅。嗯，当我们解放科威特时，我们可能每天生产 600 万桶，运气好的话。现在我们每天生产 1380 万桶。我们拥有北美，乃至整个美洲的能源安全。而那些日子里情况并非如此。即使在第二次伊拉克战争，小布什总统时期，情况也不是这样。嗯，那时也不是这样。嗯，我们现在掌握的技术可以从非常紧张的空间中提取大量原油。它可以基本上把原油从岩石里吸出来。嗯，我们在加拿大非常擅长这一点。你们在这方面也做得很好。嗯，如果在加拿大能建造更多管道，你们就能生产更多的原油。所以，是的，我们拥有充足的原油。我们将拥有充足的原油很长一段时间。而这会在一定程度上消除油价的冲击效应，特别是对北美 WTI 原油而言。你会看到今天，国际基准布伦特原油合约一度比美国原油高出 20 美元，这是一个 20 年来的高点。换句话说，北海的原油今天比西德克萨斯地区的油桶贵 20 美元。那么，会发生什么呢？美国的原油没有真正理由会飙升。但有了比国际基准高出 20 美元的溢价，在接下来的几周里，我们将大量出口原油。波斯湾被困的原油将把客户转向美国，美国将向他们出售大量的 WTI 原油，这是一种优质原油，可以生产很多汽油。嗯，加拿大原油通常通过美国中部地区运输，是一种更浓稠的原油。它生产大量的柴油和取暖油，但难以运往海边。但是，如果我们卖给我们石油，我们可以将部分供应转移到墨西哥湾沿岸，并向他们出售更多的桶。所以，总的来说，历史最高纪录是每天约 560 万桶美国出口量。在我们昨天的库存报告中，我们为约 490 万桶。未来几周，预计这一纪录将被打破。
Original English **Bob Yoger**: >> The big reason is because the United States and to a lesser degree Canada are now oil producing superpowers. We, the United States, we produce way, we produce 13.8 million barrels a day of crude oil back in those early 20s or going back to the first uh war in Iraq. Uh I worked on the floor then. Uh when we liberated Kuwait, we were probably producing 6 million barrels a day if we were lucky. Now we're at 13.8 million barrels. We have energy security in North America, in the Americas in general. That was not the case back in those days. was not the case even through the first uh uh through the second uh Iraqi war with the second President Bush. Uh that was still not the case. Um and that the the the the technology that we have at our hands now can bring a lot of crude oil out of a very tight space. It can suck basically crude oil out of rock. And uh we've got we are very good at that in Canada. You're very good at it also. And uh if if you could build more pipeline in Canada, you would even be able to produce a lot more crude oil. So yeah, we have an abundance of crude oil. We're we're going to have an abundance of crude oil for a long time. And that kind of takes the shock effect out of the uh out of price, especially for North American WTI crude oil. You'll see today at one point the international benchmark Brent contract was trading at basically a 20-year high $20 premium to US crude oil. In other words, crude oil from the North Sea was $20 more expensive than the barrel from West Texas today. So what happens then is crude oil [clears throat] there's no real reason for crude oil in the United States to go rally above and beyond. But with that $20 premium to the international benchmark, we're going to be like we are going to be exporting barrels for size here in coming weeks. The crude oil is trapped in this in this in the Persian Gulf is going to divert their customers to the United States who are going to sell them a lot of WTI crude oil which is a good crude oil makes a lot of gasoline. Uh the Canadian barrel which generally comes down through the uh midcontinent of the United States is a thicker crude oil. It makes a lot of diesel and heating oil that has trouble making it to the sea. But we will if we sell if you sell us the oil, we can divert some of those our supplies to the Gulf Coast and sell them even more barrels. So look, the the alltime record is about 5.6 million barrels a day of US exports. We were at about 4.9 million barrels in yesterday's storage report. Look for that record to fall in coming weeks.
**Jan**: 我必须问一下，长期的**高油价**会考验任何国家。无论你是出口国还是进口国。我很想知道，请帮我们分析一下，现在我们看到的情况在历史记录中处于什么位置？哪些过去的**石油冲击**没有导致全球衰退？
Original English **Jan**: >> I do have to ask, you know, prolonged high oil prices can test any nation. uh it doesn't matter if you are an export or an import. I am curious, help us position what we are seeing right now sort of in the history books here. What past oil shocks did not lead to a global recession?
**Bob Yoger**: 在很大程度上，这几乎是必然的。嗯，是的，这肯定会增加几率。我的意思是，我们昨天交易价格为 100 美元，这意味着我们处于通胀压力上升的区间，这将威胁到经济衰退。我刚在离开办公室前读到，交易员们预计今年不会降息。他们必须在口袋里留有加息的可能性，以应对未来的通胀。所以，嗯，情况不妙。现在看起来越来越像是低增长、嗯，可能还会是低就业环境。而且，嗯，那不是好事。嗯，我得告诉你们，这里（美国）的**大问题**。我的意思是，我们并非对这一切免疫，尽管我们离波斯湾或中东很远，而且我们不再从那里进口原油。然而，美国汽油价格在 18 天内上涨了 30% 以上。自战争开始以来，油泵上的汽油价格已经连续 18 天上涨。这是战争至今每一天的价格。所以，这将给消费者带来压力。高能源价格是导致通货膨胀最简单的方式，因为它会渗透到许多不同的行业。所以，是的，这是个**真正的问题**。这不仅是通胀问题，对政府来说也是一个政治问题。我们将在 11 月迎来**中期选举**。如果人们在夏季驾驶时，为汽油支付 4 美元、5 美元，他们会在投票时记住这一点。
Original English **Bob Yoger**: >> It it's pretty much a layup to a large degree. Uh yeah, it's it certainly increases the odds. I mean, we traded $100 yesterday that we're in the range where inflationary pressures are going to be on the move and it's going to threaten a recession here. I just read before I left the desk that the uh traders are pricing in no rate cuts this year. They have to have that rate increase in their back pocket possibility to combat inflation moving ahead here. So, uh, it's not looking it's not a good situation. It looks it's looking more and more like a low growth, uh, possibly low job environment moving forward from here. And, uh, that is not good. Uh, I will tell you the big problem here in the States. I mean, we're not immune to all this despite the fact that we're pretty far away from the Persian Gulf or the Middle East and the fact that we don't import barrels in there anymore. However, the price of gasoline here in the United States is up over 30% in 18 days. Since the beginning of the of the war, the price of crude of gasoline at the pump has been higher for 18 days in a row. It's been higher for every day of the war so far. Uh so that is going to put pressure on the on the consumer. That is the easiest way to get to inflation is high energy prices because it bleeds through so many different industries. So, yes, it's a real it's a real problem here. It's not only an inflationary problem, it's a political problem for the G for the administration. We have the midterm elections coming up uh in November. And if people are driving and they're paying $4, $5 for gasoline during summer driving season, they'll remember that when they go to the polls.
**Jan**: Bob，您如何将这次石油冲击与过去的石油冲击进行比较？比如 1973 年的石油禁运，或者 2008 年油价短暂触及每桶 147 美元的时候。
Original English **Jan**: >> Bob, how would you compare this oil shock to those of the past? say the 1973 oil embargo or when oil prices traded at $147 per barrel briefly in 2008.
**Rory Johnson**: 2008 年的情况有点像缓慢上涨。它不一定是单日上涨 10%。而且它不仅仅是一个因素。有伊拉克的**地缘政治动荡**。有中国需求的增长，达到了新的水平。还有美元。这三种力量合力将**原油价格**推至历史最高点。但那是一个更渐进的过程，不像一日事件。所以，我想这次因为它的**快速性**，这是一个大事件。然而，我也想说，俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争也是一个重大事件，它让欧盟相当一部分本来以为是千年供应的石油和天然气供应脱离了市场。他们不得不迅速抢购新的供应，价格飞涨。这对系统造成了巨大冲击。这对**欧洲联盟**这个当时最大的经济体之一造成了巨大冲击。那是一件大事。从某些方面来说，你可以说那更糟。嗯，但你知道，这在很大程度上是苹果和橘子比较。我们还没有达到俄罗斯在乌克兰战争期间的水平。嗯，战争初期，布伦特原油价格达到 119.50 美元，今天也达到了 119 美元，但仍比俄罗斯在乌克兰战争期间的水平低 11-12 美元。
Original English **Rory Johnson**: The 2008 scenario was kind of a a drift higher. It wasn't necessarily a one day 10% spike higher. It was and it wasn't just one factor. It was geopolitical mayhem basically in Iraq. It was the the increasing demand by China uh to next level uh demand numbers and it was also a uh a a uh the dollar. Those three forces conspired to to rally crude oil to the highest level of all time. But there there was like it was more of a a gradual thing. It wasn't like a big one day event. Uh so I would say this time because of the the quickness it's uh it's it's it's a big event. However, I would also say that the Russian war in Ukraine that was a big one that that left a lot of the European Union's access to what they had bet would be their oil and gas uh supplies for millennium off the market. and they had to scramble really fast to secure new supplies and those numbers went to the moon and that that was a big shock to the system. That was a big shock to one of the biggest uh economies, the European Union of all time to any any economy. And uh so that was a big one. There's a lot of in in some ways you could say that was worse. Um but it's you know it's it's it's apples and oranges at this point to a large degree. We still haven't traded to the levels that we were at in the Russian war in Ukraine. Uh Brent traded to $119.50 at the beginning of the war, traded to $119 today, but that's still a good 1112 away from where we were at during the Russian war in Ukraine.
**Jan**: 如果 hostilities 立即停止，全球石油和天然气需要多长时间才能恢复平衡？也许能回到 2 月 27 日，也就是美国和以色列攻击伊朗之前？
Original English **Jan**: >> If hostilities were to cease tomorrow, how long would it take for global oil and gas to balance itself? maybe perhaps come back to where it was uh February 27th before uh the US and Israel attacked Iran.
**Bob Yoger**: 首先，市场会**迅速下跌**。一天内就会有 10-15 美元的跌幅。嗯，可能第二天还会再跌。这种情况以前发生过。第一次海湾战争就发生过。嗯，当时的**市场**会多次触及跌停。如果他们今天突然中止冲突，这种情况可能会再次发生，虽然可能性不大，但我认为有 1-3% 的机会。如果发生，价格会迅速回落。但是，毫无疑问，中东和波斯湾地区的**生产设施**遭受了严重的**基础设施破坏**。科威特能源公司今天早上发布消息称，修复其工厂的损坏需要长达五个月的时间，这是全球最大的液化天然气（LNG）工厂，占全球液化天然气供应量的 20% 已遭到损坏。这比我预想的要长，但他们表示需要五个月来修复。今天，有三家**炼油厂**，总计 120 万桶的炼油能力，遭到伊朗的袭击。嗯，在战争早期，全球第四大炼油厂，位于阿联酋，也遭到了袭击，日产能 80 万桶。沙特阿拉伯最大的炼油厂，日产能 550 万桶（这里可能是一个转录错误，原文是“550 million barrels a day”，这不符合常理，根据语境更可能是指日产量 550,000 桶或类似规模，但为忠实原文，保留其表述）也遭到了袭击。这些工厂的**生产能力**不会在第一天就恢复。原油价格会出现大幅波动。但**石油基础设施**需要更长时间才能恢复。
Original English **Bob Yoger**: >> Market would fall really fast in one day for starters. It would be a 10 $15 move to the downside. Um it probably would be another one the day after that. This has happened before. This has happened in the first Gulf War. Uh the market would trade limit down uh multiple times in one day. That would probably happen again to a certain degree if they just wrapped it up today from out of nowhere, which I wouldn't say is likely, but I would I would say there's a 1, two, 3% chance that it does happen. Uh if that were to happen, it would it would pull back fast. However, there is no doubt that there's significant infrastructure destruction in the uh production space in the Middle East in the Persian Gulf at this as of right now. Uh Kuwait Energy was putting out this morning that it would take as long as five months to them to fix the damage that has been done to their facility, which is the largest LG facility on the planet that moves 20% of all LG supplies on the planet is has been damaged. And I that's longer than I thought, but they are putting out five months to to fix that. Today, three refineries representing 1.2 2 million barrels of refining capacity were were were were targeted by the Iranians today. Uh in earlier part of the war, the fourth largest refinery in the world in the United Arab Emirates was targeted, that's 800,000 barrels a day. And the largest refinery in the in Saudi Arabia for 550 million barrels a day was also targeted. that production is not going to come back from those refineries on day one. You'll get the big move in in crude oil. You would get the big crude oil move in crude oil, but oil infrastructure is going to take longer to come back.
**Jan**: 好的，Bob，我们就先讨论到这里。非常感谢你的见解，以及——[音乐]——这次的历史课程。
Original English **Jan**: >> All right, Bob, we are going to have to leave it there. Really appreciate your insights on this and [music] thanks for the history lesson as well.
**Bob Yoger**: 你知道吗，加拿大是全球第四大原油生产国，也是第五大**天然气**生产国。这意味着当全球能源市场动荡时，我们处于一个独特的位置。那么，我们现在在**政治**和**经济**上应该做出哪些举措？我们是否可能走向**衰退**？
Original English **Bob Yoger**: >> Did you know that Canada is the fourth largest global producer of crude oil and the fifth largest producer of natural gas? Meaning when global energy markets are shaken, we are in a unique position. So what moves should we be making right now politically and economically? And could we be headed toward a recession?
**Jan**: [音乐] Bob Yoger，Mazuo Americas 的大宗商品专家再次加入我们。Rory Johnson，商品语境通讯（commodity context newsletter）的石油市场研究员兼创始人。还有 Heather Exnerpo，麦克唐纳·劳里埃研究所（McDonald Laurier Institute）的能源、自然资源与环境总监。很高兴你们三位都在节目中。Rory，我先问你。**石油美元体系**始于 20 世纪 70 年代。那时，中东石油生产商用**美元**出售他们的产品。他们当然会把这些收入花在美国资产上，比如国债。这有助于美国为其开支融资，也是在中东获得安全保障的一种交换。请帮我们理解一下，**石油美元体系**的未来是什么？
Original English **Jan**: [music] Bob Yoger is a commodity specialist with Misso Americas joins us again. And Rory Johnson is an oil market researcher and founder of the commodity context newsletter. and Heather Exnerpo is the director of energy, natural resources, and environment at the McDonald Laurier Institute. Great to have you all on the program. Rory, I'm gonna start with you. The petro dollar system began in the 1970s. This is where, you know, Middle Eastern oil producers sell their products in US dollars. They spend those earnings, of course, on US assets like treasuries. It helps Americans fund, America fund its spending, also some exchange for security as well in the Middle East. help us understand what is the future now of the petro dollar system.
**Rory Johnson**: 嗯，挑战之一是，**海湾**地区生产商目前**赚不到钱**。所以，没有多少石油美元可以回流到这个体系中。这显然是对全球金融体系的巨大**流动性**抽离，当然也直接转移到了**美元**。嗯，但我认为这种情况是**无法持久**的。我认为**某种**事情**必须改变**，因为我们目前正处于海湾地区生产商——包括伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋——的**绝望**的**生存水平**。嗯，只说几个名字，我们已经有——你知道，通过海峡损失了 2000 万桶/日的产量。嗯，为了**换算**一下，我认为理解这个数字有多大很重要。这大约相当于 2020 年 3 月和 4 月**新冠疫情**高峰期全球**需求**损失的峰值。那时，没有飞机在天上飞，我们都被困在家里。这就是如果海峡保持关闭，我们**需要**看到一定程度的**需求破坏**来**弥补**这个**缺口**。所以，想象一下，在没有**大流行病**和**封锁**的情况下，试图重现**出行**的困难。你需要什么**价格**才能达到这个程度？所以我回想一下关于**GCC**生产商——嗯，海湾生产商——的问题。你们已经看到了超过 900 万桶/日的**产量**被**关停**。这不仅仅是**封锁**。这是**生产**。这些**油井**不再**生产**了。这需要**几周**，**几个月**才能**恢复**。没有多少**钱**进来。
Original English **Rory Johnson**: >> Well, part of the challenge is that those Gulf producers aren't currently making any money. So, there's not many petro dollars to recycle into that system. So, that is obviously a massive drain of liquidity from the financial system globally and and obviously transfers directly into the US dollar. Um, but again, I think this situation remains untenable to last. I think something's going to have to move because these are we're currently at existential levels of kind of despair of the of the Gulf producers between Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Um, to name to name but a few, we've already had, you know, we're at 20 million barrels a day lost through the strait. Um, and just to put that in perspective, I think it's important to kind of understand how big a number that is. That was roughly the peak of global demand loss during the peak of COVID in March and April of 2020. So when not a plane was in the sky, we were all locked in our homes. That's the current level if the straight remains closed that we are going to need to see some degree of demand destruction to kind of close that gap. So imagine trying to replicate the mobility issues of CO but without a pandemic and without lockdowns. What price would you require to get there? So I think back to this question about the the GCC producers uh the Gulf producers, you've already seen more than 9 million barrels a day of production shut in. That's not just blocked. That's production. these wells aren't producing anymore. This is going to take weeks, months to get back up and running. There's not a lot of money coming in.
**Jan**: 好的，Heather，Rory 描绘了一幅严峻的景象。那么，在你看来，**石油美元体系**的未来是怎样的？
Original English **Jan**: >> All right, Heather, Rory's painted a picture there. Uh what is the future now uh for the pro dollar system as you see it?
**Heather Exnerpo**: 是的。嗯，重申一下，你知道，Rory 的说法有点危言耸听，而 Rory 通常是一个相当平衡的人，但情况确实**很糟糕**。我昨天刚和一些**澳大利亚**的矿工谈过。一些**锂矿**的**储存**只有五天了。他们将不得不**关闭**他们的矿井。所以，“转向电力”、“转向可再生能源”的想法，**石油**及其衍生品的**可用性**是**经济**各个方面的润滑剂。所以，毫无疑问，无论这场危机如何结束，何时结束，我们都会**留下后遗症**。而且，我同意 Rory 的观点，**政治**上是**难以维持**的。所以，人们正在寻找**退路**。
Original English **Heather Exnerpo**: >> Yeah. Well, just to reiterate, you know, Rory's alarmism and and Rory is usually a pretty balanced guy, but things are bad. I was just with some Australian miners yesterday. Some of the lithium mines, they're down to five days of storage. They're going to have to shut in their mine. So the idea that oh just move to electricity, you know, just move to renewables, the the availability of oil and all the things it produces greases the wheel of every other facet of our economy. And so there's no doubt that we will have a hangover, you know, however this ends and and whenever it ends. And I agree with Rory, politically it's it's untenable. Uh and so people are looking for exit ramps right now.
**Bob Yoger**: Bob，我同意他们的观点，在某种程度上。那些**美元**现在被**锁定**了。嗯，我认为这种情况会持续**一到两个月**，甚至可能到**阵亡将士纪念日**周末，我预计届时情况会结束。嗯，**特朗普政府**承担不起将这一切拖到夏季**驾驶季**。所以，我预计会在此结束。但是，嗯，外面有很多**石油**。另一方面，**全球经济**能够**承受**。在此之前，**国际能源署**估计每天有约 380 万桶的**剩余**。所以，外面有很多**石油**，但它**绝对是个问题**。
Original English **Bob Yoger**: >> Bob, I I think I agree with them to a certain degree. those those dollars are locked in right now. And uh I would tend to think that it's going to be the case for a good two week two months or up to Memorial Day weekend is is where I'm looking for kind of to wrap this up at. Uh the Trump administration cannot afford to take this into summer driving season. So I'm looking for it to end about there. But uh there's a lot of oil out there. On the other hand, the global economy would be able to survive. Pri prior to this, the International Energy Agency was estimated there was about 3.8 million barrels of surplus every single day. So, there's a lot of oil out there, but uh it it is definitely a problem.
**Jan**: 好的，我想展示一张图表。这是加拿大**油价**从 2014 年到 2026 年的图表，但我想让我们把注意力放在这张图表的右侧。加拿大**油价**在**中东战争**开始时上涨，出现了一个巨大的**飙升**。但它们仍然远低于 2022 年创下的历史**最高纪录**。
Original English **Jan**: >> All right, I want to pull in a a chart. This looks at Canadian oil prices uh from 2014 to 2026, but I want to keep our focus onto the right hand side of this chart here. Prices of Canadian oil rose around the same time that the war began in the Middle East. A huge kind of spike right there. But uh they are still well short of all-time highs, which was of course in 2022.
**Rory Johnson**: Rory，加拿大是否会迎来**石油和天然气**的**意外之财**？因为我们是一个可靠的、有些人称之为安全的、民主的资源供应国。这是一个机会吗？
Original English **Rory Johnson**: Rory, is Canada in for an oil and natural gas windfall because we, you know, we're a reliable, some would say secure, democratic supplier of those resources. Is this an opportunity here?
**Bob Yoger**: 在**短期**内，**绝对**是。我认为我们已经看到了布伦特原油价格，目前约为每桶 110 美元。WCS 差价，也就是加拿大西部精选原油（我们主要的重酸原油出口）的折价。嗯，在年初，由于委内瑞拉的绑架和某种程度的政权更迭，以及尼古拉斯·马杜罗被绑架，受到了一些压力。嗯，这些委内瑞拉重酸原油的重新进入，与我们自己的情况类似，对墨西哥湾沿岸的折价造成了影响。嗯，但基本上，在**伊朗战争**中发生的是，在两周内，这种**折价**又被完全抹去了。嗯，原因在于，从中东、从霍尔木兹海峡出来的**大部分原油**是**中重酸性原油**。所以，作为**加拿大出口商**，我们在**整体价格水平**和**更好的价差或折价**方面都受益。挑战在于，我认为这场危机持续的时间越长，我非常警惕，就像 Heather 说的那样，我非常警惕。我不认为这仅仅是**经济衰退**。如果持续下去，我认为会是**经济萧条**。这就是为什么我认为这不会持续下去。但是，即使在高油价的情况下，如果这蔓延成一场**全球经济灾难**，加拿大也会因**全球经济痛苦**而受到伤害，而现在看起来确实如此。
Original English **Bob Yoger**: >> I think in the initial term, absolutely. I think what we're already seeing with Brent prices, you know, we're currently at about $110 a barrel. WCS differentials or the the discount borne by Western Canadian select barrels, our main heavy sour export. Uh they had actually been under pressure uh earlier this year following uh the kidnapping and kind of regime change in in Venezuela following the kidnapping of Nicholas Maduro. Uh the re-entry of those Venezuelan heavy sour barrels similar to our own was weighing on GF Coast uh discounts. Um but basically what's happened through the Iran war already is in two weeks that discount has been entirely erased again. Uh and the reason for this is that the majority of barrels coming out of the Middle East coming out of the straight hormuz are medium to heavy sour barrels. So we are benefiting as Canadian exporters both on the kind of overall price level as well as a better differential or discount. The challenge is is I think the longer this goes on I'm I'm pretty alarmed as as Heather was saying I'm very alarmed and I don't think this is just recessionary. I think this is depressionary if this continues for as long as it could. And I think that's why I can't I can't see this lasting. But even in a scenario of higher oil prices, Canada will hurt from the economic pain globally if this does spread into a global economic catastrophe, which is where which is where it's looking like it's going right now.
**Jan**: Heather，当我们谈论当下因这种情况而受苦的国家时，我们可以看看亚洲的**中国**、**印度**、**斯里兰卡**等国家。但我想稍微关注一下**加拿大**与**中国**等国的新型外交关系。我很想知道，**中东**的这种**供应中断**对这些关系意味着什么？对**加拿大**与**中国**以及其他**亚洲**国家的关系意味着什么？
Original English **Jan**: >> Heather, when we talk about countries that are hurting right now because of this situation, we can look to countries in Asia, China, India, uh Sri Lanka, other nations. But I want to focus a little bit on uh Canada's sort of new forge relationships with China for example. I am curious what does this supply disruption in the Middle East mean for these relationships for Canada say amongst China and the other Asian countries.
**Heather Exnerpo**: 是的。所以 Rory 说得对，这正在伤害所有人。**加拿大消费者**不会从中受益。但是，如果有哪个国家可能成为**赢家**，你知道，从中短期和长期来看，我认为是**加拿大**。**俄罗斯**可能也有一些机会。但原因是，我们是一个庞大的**石油和天然气出口国**。我们可以从**西海岸**出口。嗯，现在在一定程度上，我们正寻求从**东海岸**出口更多石油，并且我们通过**墨西哥湾**运输。所以，我们的**运输**方式**非常多样化**。显然，卡尼（Carney）一直非常专注于改善这些**亚洲**联盟。他去过**日本**、**印度**和**中国**。显然，**能源**是这些讨论的核心。**铀**也是议程上的内容，但**石油**、**天然气**和**液化石油气**是重点。如果你是**买家**之一，并且已经在考虑**加拿大**，那么，我们的**品牌**只会**越来越好**。你可能分配给这种**可靠性**、这种**加拿大**的**选择权**的**溢价**可能正在**提高**。我想说，这有助于，例如，随着我们**扩建泛山管道**（Trans Mountain），让**亚洲**的买家能够消化我们能通过那里输送的**过剩产能**。我认为这可能有助于**LNG Canada**最终做出**投资决定**，以及总的来说，我认为人们会——你知道，如果你拥有**选择权**，而**加拿大**现在是一个选择，我认为这对几乎所有人来说都很有吸引力。
Original English **Heather Exnerpo**: >> Yeah. So Rory's right that this is is hurting everyone. Canadian consumers will not benefit from this. But if any country is looking like it may be a winner, you know, in the medium and long term out of this, I think it's Canada. Russia might have some claim to that as well. But the reason for that is that we are an enormous oil and gas exporter. We are able to export off the west coast. Uh now to some extent we're looking to export more oil off the east coast and we ship through the Gulf of Mexico. So we have quite a lot of diversity of where we can ship things through. Obviously Carney has been very focused on improving those Asian alliances. He's been to Japan, India and China. Obviously energy led those discussions. Uranium is also on the agenda but is very much oil, natural gas and LPGs. And if you're one of those buyers and you're already thinking about Canada, well, we are we just keep our brand keeps getting better and better. The premium that you might assign to that reliability to that Canadian optionality is probably getting better. And I would say that helps, for example, as we're expanding Trans Mountain to get buyers in Asia to take off excess production that we could send through there. I think it probably helps get the final investment decision on LG Canada too and solic LG and and just overall I think people will may you know if you can have optionality and Canada's an option now I think that would be attract to just about everyone.
**Jan**: Bob，Heather 说**加拿大**可能是**潜在的赢家**，但我想谈谈**基础设施**。加拿大有能力**迅速提高**石油和天然气**产量**吗？我知道我们讨论了**管道**，是否有足够的管道？我们能做到吗？
Original English **Jan**: >> Bob Heather says you know Canada is a potential winner here but I want to talk about infrastructure. Uh does Canada have the ability to ramp up oil and gas production quickly? Uh I know we talked about uh you know pipelines as well whether we have enough of that uh or not. Uh can we do this?
**Bob Yoger**: 不。不。**美国**将是**最佳客户**，所有的原油都将流向那里。**管道**现在就通往那里。它们通往**美国中部**，**美国中部**的**炼油厂**会消化这些**原油**，而且很可靠，每天都能完美运行。**加拿大**需要的是一条通往**西海岸**的更大**管道**，在那里可以将原油出口到**中国**，但也会有原油输往**日本**和**韩国**。嗯，现在，原油确实很大程度上流向**加州**和**西海岸**。但他们需要一条更大的管道。建造一条更大的管道，**生产商**就会**增加产量**。就这么简单。但是，**为这条管道融资**并非易事。建造这条管道将是**世界工程奇迹**。这并不容易。路途相当遥远，而且还有**落基山脉**挡在路上。可以做到，但成本很高，而且需要大量的**承诺**。
Original English **Bob Yoger**: >> No. No. The US would be the best customer and that's where almost all the barrels would go. That's where the pipelines go at this point. They go into the midcontinent and the the refineries US refineries in midcontinent soak up that crude oil and uh it's reliable. It moves every day perfectly. What Canada needs is another larger pipeline to the west coast where they can export barrels to to basically to China, but there'll also be barrels that would go to Japan and um South Korea also. Now, barrels actually go to a large degree to California and the West Coast also, but they need a bigger pipe. Build a bigger pipe and uh the producer will add more barrels. They will increase production. It's as simple as that. But financing that pipe is no easy task. And building the pipe would be an architectural wonder of the world. Uh it's not easy. It's it's pretty long ways and you got the Rocky Mountains in the way too. It can be done, but it costs a lot of money and uh you need that kind of commitment.
**Jan**: Heather，我让你来回应 Bob 的说法。
Original English **Jan**: >> Heather, I'll get you get you in on on a response to Bob there.
**Heather Exnerpo**: 嗯，Bob 说得完全正确。我们有**泛山管道**（Trans Mountain）的扩建。**亚洲**的**潜在客户**是显而易见的，这很可能会发生。而且，这大约是 360,000 桶/日。所以，这是我们关注的重点。现在，**液化天然气 (LNG)** 与**石油**是不同的故事。我们都想要**西北海岸石油管道**，但正如 Bob 所说，**去美国**更简单。而且，我们还在新的**西北海岸石油管道**上附加了一个 200 亿美元的**碳捕获项目**，这加上融资和工程上的困难，使得这个项目更**遥不可及**。所以，你已经看到，**实际发生**的事情是，**生产商**正试图将更多产品**运往南方**，**Enbridge**正在**扩建**其**主线**，对其进行**优化**，现在我们看到了**Keystone XL**的**复兴**。所以，你知道，**石油**正沿着**最短**、**最顺畅**的路线输送，而这条路线**绝大多数**是通往**美国**。
Original English **Heather Exnerpo**: >> Well, I mean Bob's absolutely right. So we have the expansion of Trans Mountain. The obvious customers for those are in Asia that's likely to happen. and that would probably be about 360,000 barrels. So that's what we're focused on. Now LNG is a bit of a different story than oil. We all want that Northwest Coast oil pipeline, but to Bob's point, it's easier to go to the United States. And also, we've attached a $20 billion carbon capture project to a new Northwest Coast oil pipeline, which on top of the financing and then engineering difficulties makes that more of a long shot. And so you have seen that what is actually happening in real time is producers are looking to send more south andbridge is is expanding its main line optimizing it and now we're having the revival of Keystone XL and so that the you know oil is going in in the shortest route and the smoothest route it can find and most of that happens to be the United States.
**Jan**: Rory，**加拿大**每天生产约 600 万桶**石油**，全国有几十家**炼油厂**。是什么阻止了这个国家在**使用我们自己的石油和天然气产品**（如生产**汽油**或**柴油**）方面实现**自给自足**？
Original English **Jan**: >> Rory, Canada produces about 6 million barrels of oil a day and has a dozens of refineries across the country. What is preventing this country from being self-sufficient when it when it comes to using our own oil and gas products like making gasoline or diesel?
**Rory Johnson**: 是的。加拿大实际上，我曾与 Heather 在麦克唐纳·劳里埃研究所合作，撰写了一份关于**加拿大炼油自给自足**问题的报告。总的来说，我们**炼制**的**燃料**量大致等于我们**消耗**的量。挑战在于，例如，我们**东海岸**的一些**炼油厂**无法获得**加拿大西部**生产的**原油**。这就是为什么我们最初会争论像**能源东线管道**（Energy East pipeline）这样的项目，它将连接国家的两端。很久以前，我们看到 TC Energy 主管道连接了天然气。嗯，这同样需要。挑战在于**经济**。**南下**总是更**便宜**，正如 Heather 所说。它总是更便宜。而且，我认为当人们抱怨**过度依赖**美国市场时，他们往往会认为是**政府失误**。我则认为恰恰相反。我认为如果**私营部门**按自己的方式发展，就会是这样。如果我们想要**选择权**，如果我们想要**东部加拿大**的**能源安全**，并且想要**西部出口**的选择权，你知道，例如直接服务**印度市场**（目前我们只能通过**美国墨西哥湾沿岸**的**再出口**来服务），这就需要这条**更昂贵**的**西北海岸石油管道**，我**从根本上**认为，如果**仅靠私营部门**，它**不会建成**。它需要**政府资金**，这是**政府**才能纳入的**战略要素**。**私营部门**无法重视这一点。
Original English **Rory Johnson**: >> Yeah. So, Canada actually I I wrote I wrote a report with Heather at the McDonald Laurier Institute specifically on this question of Canadian refining sufficiency. And as a country overall, we actually roughly refine as much fuels as we consume. The challenge is is that for instance some of our our refineries on the east coast can't get access to the crude oil produced in the you know in western Canada. This is where we initially had arguments for things like the energy east pipeline that would connect the two uh sides of the country. We saw this with the TC energy mainline connecting in gas uh you know a very very long time ago now. Um this is what you would need as well. The challenge is economics. It's always going to be cheaper to Heather's point uh to go south. It's always going to be cheaper. And I think when people bemoone the overd dependence on the US market, they kind of say it's a government failure. I would argue the opposite. I would say that this is what the private sector is going to do if left to its own devices. If we do want the optionality, if we want the energy security in eastern Canada and we want the optionality of westward uh exports, you know, for instance, servicing the Indian market directly, which currently we can only service through reexports of the US Gulf Coast, that's going to require this much more expensive Northwest Coast oil pipeline that I fundamentally believe will not be built if left only to the private sector. It will need government money and that's a strategic element that only government can incorporate. The private sector can't value that.
**Jan**: Bob，我希望你能稍微揭开面纱。我很想知道，加拿大**石油高管**现在在**董事会**里都在谈论什么？他们正在关注**中东**目前发生的**混乱**。
Original English **Jan**: Bob, I'm hoping you can help pull the curtain a little bit. I'm curious, what do you think Canadian oil executives are talking about right now in boardrooms as they are watching sort of the chaos uh in the Middle East right now?
**Rory Johnson**: 他们最关心的是**WCS**和**WTI**之间的**价差**。嗯，他们希望看到这个**价差缩小**，让**加拿大原油**变得更具**吸引力**。嗯，这样他们就能最大限度地提高未来的**产量**。嗯，在**委内瑞拉**事件之后，这个价差确实缩小了。**委内瑞拉**事件对**加拿大**来说非常负面，那是**最糟糕**的**情况**，然后总统却把它说成是这些重质原油的**解决方案**，而这实际上把**市场**压低到了**人为的低水平**。换句话说，**加拿大人**有点被**坑了**。价格太便宜了。嗯，没有人会购买那些**委内瑞拉原油**而不是**加拿大原油**。**美国炼油商**想要**加拿大原油**。它**政治稳定**。准时。没有**不可抗力**的风险。这是一个**梦想市场**。嗯，但这对**加拿大**来说是**不利**的。这不是一个**负 16 美元**的市场。他们应该得到更好的。大约在**负 11** 到**负 13** 之间。这就是**生产商**现在看到的。他希望市场能稳定在这个区间。
Original English **Rory Johnson**: >> They're most concerned about the differential between uh WCS and WTI. Uh they want to see that spread narrow and the Canadian barrel become more uh attractive. uh that's how they will maximize uh the dot their their production going forward from here. So that that did narrow after the Venezuelan situation. Venezuelan situation was very negative Canada that was worst possible scenario and then the president talked it up as if it was the solution to all these heavy barrels and that was that that actually drilled the market down to an artificially low level. In other words, the Canadians were getting kind of ripped off a little bit. the price was too cheap. Uh, nobody's going to take those Venezuelan barrels instead of Canadian barrels. The US refiner wants Canadian barrels. It's it's it's politically stable. They're on time. There's no chance of force majour. It's a dream market. Uh, but it's for the Canadians defense. It's not a minus$16 market. They deserve better than that. Somewhere around a minus 11 bid at -13. And that's what the producer right now is looking at. and he wants to see the market settle into that range.
**Jan**: Rory，我很想知道，我们回过头来谈谈**中东**。你认为我们有足够的信息来**评估****目前**的**石油****供应**情况吗？是否有我们**遗漏**的地方？
Original English **Jan**: >> Rory, I am curious. I I want to get back to to the Middle East. Do you think we have enough information to gauge what is really happening with oil supply right now? Is there something that perhaps we are missing?
**Rory Johnson**: 我认为部分**挑战**在于，我认为**期货市场**，例如，波动非常大，而且可能滞后于许多分析师（包括我）认为的**油价**应有的水平，考虑到我认为**合理**的**警惕程度**。但是，嗯，在过去几周里，我们看到的是**白宫**、**特朗普**、**财政部长**、**能源部长**等等，他们都在**口头干预**或试图**压低****油市**的**状况**。这些都**削弱**了这些**多头头寸**。我们在一周前的星期一看到了**显著**的**表现**，当天**价差**高达 35 美元。许多**交易员**损失惨重，我认为现在**过度****持有****实物市场**的**多头头寸**存在**疲惫感**。但**我**现在正在看我的屏幕。**现金原油**现在就在**迪拜**海岸附近，基本上在**阿曼湾**，目前交易价格为**每桶 170 美元**。这就是我们即将看到的**价格类型**。它像**冲击波**一样**扩散**。需要时间。我们先看到它影响**布伦特原油**，然后才看到它影响**WTI**。所有这些，但最终这些**原油**在某种程度上是**可替代**的。市场将变得**更加统一**。我们仍处于**冲击**的**非常非常早期**阶段。
Original English **Rory Johnson**: I think part of the challenge I think some of the disconnect because I think the futures markets as an example here have been very very volatile and arguably have lagged where many analysts like myself think that the price of oil should be given the level of alarm that I think is justified. But uh what we've seen over the past couple weeks is that the jawboning or kind of talking down of the conditions uh in the oil market by the White House, by Trump, by bestcent, the the Treasury Secretary, Energy Secretary, right? These have all kind of taken the wind out of these out of these positions. We saw this in remarkable fashion two Mondays ago when we saw a $35 barrel spread intraday for these prices. Many traders got blown out and I think there's a weariness to get too long ahead of physical markets here. But I'm just looking at my screen right now. Cash crude right now off the coast of Dubai, basically on the Omani uh Gulf, is currently trading at $170 a barrel. That's the type of prices that we are going to see coming towards us. And it's like a shock wave rippling out. It's going to take time. We're seeing it hit Brent before we're seeing it hit WTI. All of these things, but eventually these are fungeable barrels to a degree. The market will become more uniform. We're still in just the very, very early stages of the shock.
**Jan**: Heather，你来做最后的发言。如果**加拿大**真的成为一个更具**吸引力**的**石油和天然气**来源，这是否意味着我们会看到更多的**外国**或**国内投资**随之而来？
Original English **Jan**: Heather, you get the last word here. If Canada does become a more attractive source uh of oil and gas, does that mean we will see more foreign or domestic investment to follow?
**Heather Exnerpo**: 当然。而且我想说，你知道，自年初以来，**石油砂**生产商的**股票价格**远远超过了 S&P 500，甚至超过了**能源生产商**的平均水平。所以，**石油砂**，**加拿大石油**看起来**非常有吸引力**。人们**押注**它将有**好几年**的好光景。我认为现在是时候了，你知道，我们仍在谈判，我们自己的一些**希望**是获得**加拿大**的**工业碳定价**，这方面存在很多**不确定性**，再加上**全球市场**正在发生的事情。我希望我们能**尽快**把事情**理顺**，这样**生产商**就可以开始做出**投资决定**，**管道公司**可以做出**投资决定**，我们可以规划出**加拿大**在**短期**、**中期**，以及**希望**的**长期**内能做些什么。
Original English **Heather Exnerpo**: >> Well, absolutely. And I'll say, you know, one thing, since the beginning of the year, oil sands producers, their stock prices have far exceeded, you know, the S&P 500, but even the the average the average of energy producers. And so, oil sands, Canadian oil is looking very attractive. People are betting that it's going to have a good couple of years and I think now is a time you know we're still negotiating atou there's still some of our own hopes to get an order in Canada what will be the industrial carbon price a lot of uncertainty on our own side to to you know to be topped off with what's happening global markets I hope we get our act together very quickly so that producers can start making those investment decisions pipeline companies can make their investment decisions and we can plot out what is it that Canada can be doing in in the short and medium and then hopefully long term as well.
**Jan**: 好的，我们就先到这里。我可能不会像 Rory 或 Bob 那样，随时随地把所有信息都放在电脑里。但这是一个我们当然会继续关注的故事。嗯，Bob、Rory、Heather，非常感谢你们的见解。谢谢。
Original English **Jan**: >> All right, we are going to have to leave it there. I'm probably not going to have all of that information on my computer like Rory does or Bob does all the time. Uh, but it's a story that we of course are going to continue to follow. Uh, Bob, Rory, Heather, really appreciate your insights. Thank you.
**Bob Yoger**: 谢谢。
Original English **Bob Yoger**: >> Thank you.
**Rory Johnson**: 谢谢。
Original English **Rory Johnson**: >> Thank you.
**Heather Exnerpo**: 谢谢。
Original English **Heather Exnerpo**: >> Thank you.
**Jan**: 我是 Jan，感谢观看 The Rundown。我们很想听听你的想法，所以请发送你的建议和反馈到 tvo.org/runddown. org/runddown feedback，或者在 YouTube 上给我们留言。下次再见。
Original English **Jan**: >> I'm Jan. Thanks for watching the rundown. We'd love to know what you think, so send us [music] your suggestions and feedback at tvo.org/runddown. org/runddown feedback or leave us a comment on YouTube. Until then, I'll see you next week.
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