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>> Hello
and
welcome
to
another
episode
of
the
All
Thoughts
Podcast.
I'm
Tracy
Aloway
>> and
I'm
Joe
Weisenthal.
>> Joe,
>> yes.
>> Have
you
ever
wanted
to
tour
a
data
center?
>> Uh,
I'd
love
to.
Um,
>> part
of
me
thinks
it
would
be
really
boring,
like
if
you
actually
went
inside,
cuz
it
would
just
be
a
bunch
of
the
same
cables
like
over
and
over
and
over
again,
but
part
of
me
thinks
just
seeing
the
scale
of
it
would
be
amazing.
You
know
what
I
would
do
if
I
tooured
a
data
center
is
I
would
look
at
those
cables
and
every
nut
and
bolt
and
vac
and
um
and
heating
thing
and
get
every
brand
name
I
could
on
any
little
piece
of
equipment
in
the
entire
thing
and
then
see
are
there
any
of
these
that
are
AI
plays
that
the
market
doesn't
real
you
know
any
random
screwdriver
that's
being
used
in
this
operation
what
is
the
name
is
it
publicly
traded
>> so
literally
picks
and
shovels
>> yeah
just
lit
exactly
oh
here
is
here
there's
a
company
that
makes
the
um
you
know
the
doors
stop
is
are
they
an
AI
play
because
they're
going
to
need
a
lot
of
doors
stops
for
all
these
doors.
That's
what
I
would
do.
>> Okay.
So,
uh
I
guess
the
the
Joe
Hypers
scale
data
center
ETF
um
coming
to
a
market
near
you
eventually.
That
would
be
a
good
idea.
>> That's
a
great
idea.
>> Well,
today
we're
going
to
talk
about
uh
some
of
these
data
centers.
Yeah.
with
someone
who
has
actually
gone
on
a
field
trip
and
looked
at
them
and
then
we're
going
to
talk
about
broader
AI
because
of
course
>> with
markets
still
you
know
basically
at
records
there's
a
lot
of
concern
that
valuations
are
getting
out
of
hand
we've
had
these
financing
deals
which
just
do
my
head
in
in
terms
of
like
trying
to
track
who's
lending
to
who
and
who's
buying
from
who
and
all
of
that
so
we
should
talk
about
it
>> totally
because
I
mean
two
things
which
is
one
we
know
how
important
AI
is
to
the
stock
market
two,
you
know,
as
there's
all
these
sort
of
complicated
financing
deals
and
the
numbers
change
by
the
day.
So
just
today
we
got
news
that
in
the
latest
Open
AI
is
allowing
some
of
its
employees
to
sell
shares
at
a
half
a
trillion
dollar
valuation.
It
just
seems
like
it's
constant
fund
raise,
constant
numbers
that
go
higher
and
higher
and
higher
every
day.
Various
estimates
for
how
much
capital
expenditure
is
going
to
happen
in
this
cycle
seem
to
go
up.
I
feel
like
what
we
really
need
to
do
is
have
one
of
these
conversations
every
month
and
just
get
for
real
like
we
need
to
keep
uh
like
it
changes
so
fast
and
the
stakes
seem
so
high.
>> Yeah,
you
definitely
need
frequent
updates.
The
other
thing
of
course
hovering
in
the
background
is
the
importance
of
the
AI
buildout
to
the
overall
economy,
right?
And
this
is
the
question
like
is
the
I
think
Deutsche
Bank
actually
put
out
a
note
on
this.
Is
the
entire
US
economy
being
propped
up
by
AI
right
now?
Maybe
that's
not
a
problem
if
you
know
if
the
AI
stuff
actually
gets
built
and
materializes
into
real
money.
But
you
can
imagine
if
it
is
a
bubble
then
that
would
be
bad.
>> The
way
I
see
it
is
there's
essentially
two
ways
this
is
going
to
end
up.
One
is
it
turns
out
it
was
a
bubble
we
have
a
massive
recession
and
we
all
lose
our
jobs.
And
the
other
possibility
is
that
AI
is
not
a
bubble.
We
have
AGI
and
we
all
lose
our
jobs.
And
so
I'm
curious
which
of
the
two
paths
is
going
to
happen.
Well,
I
got
to
say
there
are
some
alternate
possibilities.
Did
you
see
the
uh
Dallas
Fed
chart?
>> Uh
I
haven't
seen
that
one.
>> So,
it
showed
GDP
per
capita
and
one
line
was
like
for
AGI
and
it
just
goes
straight
up.
>> Straight
up.
It
just
literally
vertical.
>> Yeah.
But
then
the
other
line
is
what
if
the
robots
take
over
the
world
and
kill
everyone
and
that
line
went
straight
down.
>> So,
yeah.
So,
>> okay.
Okay.
>> Lots
of
good
outcomes
here.
>> Yes.
All
right.
Uh
so
we
have
the
perfect
guest,
someone
we've
spoken
to
before,
uh
who
writes
absolutely
phenomenal
research
about
AI
and
actually
digs
into
literally
the
nuts
and
bolts
of
everything.
We're
going
to
be
speaking
with
James
Van
Gilan.
He
is
the
author
of
the
Catrini
newsletter.
James,
thanks
for
coming
back
on.
>> Thanks
for
having
me.
I
feel
like
uh
the
last
time
we
were
here,
we
were
also
discussing
whether
AI
is
a
bubble
or
not,
and
now
we
get
to
do
it
again.
>> One
day,
one
day
it'll
be
right.
Right.
Analysts
going
on
field
trips
is
one
of
my
favorite
genres
of
research.
Explain
to
us
how
you
managed
to
do
this.
>> So
drones
have
become
very
commoditized.
The
likelihood
of
anything
in
the
world
being
more
than
a
10
mile
radius
from
someone
with
a
drone
is
extremely
low.
>> And
we
kind
of
use
that
to
our
advantage
because
we've
been
sitting
in
front
of
a
screen
watching
green
numbers
go
up
and
up
and
up.
And
it's
not
my
fault
that
they
named
it
Stargate.
It
kind
of
lends
itself
to
not
taking
it
as
serious
as
as
one
otherwise
might.
>> And
someone
I
read
a
tweet
that
said,
"Well,
where's
the
proof?
There
probably
should
be
proof,
right?"
So,
we
looked
at
some
satellite
images
and
we
went,
"Okay,
a
year
ago
this
was
dirt
and
now
there's
this
thing
and
it's
the
size
of
lower
Manhattan."
>> Wow.
>> So,
>> it's
in
Texas,
right?
>> It's
in
Abalene,
Texas.
And
and
the
the
I
mean,
this
is
actually
one
of
the
smaller
ones.
I
mean,
if
you
look
at
Louisiana
Meta's
Hyperion,
it
would
start,
the
footprint
would
start
at
the
top
of
Central
Park
and
it
would
go
down
to
Soho.
>> Wow.
>> So,
>> that's
why
they
call
it
hypers
scale.
>> So,
just
to
be
clear
with
Stargate,
this
is
like
the
thing
that
like
Trump
and
Oracle
and
probably
SoftBank
is
in
the
middle.
Like,
what
is
this
complex?
Who's
behind
it?
This
thing
that
you
went
and
uh
toured
and
got
some
drone
footage
of.
So
it's
essentially
a
mix
of
um
you
know
Oracle,
OpenAI,
there's
some
involvement
from
Nvidia,
there's
Saudi
interest
with
MGX,
there
is
some
financing
involved
and
it
is
just
one
of
uh
currently
five
uh
data
centers
that
are
planned
with
a
half
a
trillion
dollars
of
investment.
That's
why
we
went
and
looked
at
it
because
when
you
really
think
about
it,
this
represents
probably
the
largest
infrastructure
buildout
and
effort
since
World
War
II.
>> Where
are
they
getting
the
energy
from?
>> So,
that's
the
that's
the
best
part.
That
was
the
first
thing
we
saw
in
the
drone
is
you
fly
over
it
>> and
they
just
built
their
own
natural
gas
plant
>> and
going
like
Joe,
great
idea.
just
going
and
looking
at
all
the
but
you
got
to
look
at
the
big
stuff
too,
right?
And
and
without
uh
>> I
mean
without
power
these
are
just
kind
of
you
know
hunks
of
metal.
So
you
have
outside
of
Stargate
Avalene
10
natural
gas
turbines
and
the
interesting
thing
is
these
aren't
like
the
really
good
natural
gas
turbines
because
if
you
wanted
so
natural
gas
turbines
follow
along
simple
cycle
combined
cycle
these
are
simple
cycle
they're
each
35
megawatt
which
is
very
much
on
the
lower
end
uh
half
of
them
are
from
G
Vernova
half
of
them
are
from
Caterpillar
a
company
that
Caterpillar
owns
called
solar
turbines
and
the
reason
why
they're
not
you
would
think
oh
you're
spending
half
a
trillion
dollars
on
these
things,
you
could
probably
get
the
best
thing
ever,
but
that'll
take
you
seven
years.
>> Oh,
right.
Because
there's
a
there's
a
natural
gas
turbine
Yeah.
shortage.
By
the
way,
there's
a
headline
speak.
So,
there's
a
headline,
an
article
on
the
Bloomberg
today
by
Matthew
Griffin.
The
hunt
for
winners
in
the
artificial
intelligence
gold
rush
has
landed
on
an
unlikely
target.
Oldline
industrial
equipment
maker
Caterpillar
Inc.
So,
you
got
to
look
at
every
one
of
these
brands
that's
uh
supplying
it.
And
Caterpillar
is
up
a
lot
or
it's
up
today
and
the
stock
is
uh
done
very
well.
So,
okay,
Caterpillar,
who
else?
What
are
some
of
the
What
else
do
you
see
besides
these
big
turbines
when
you
go
out
and
tour
this
facility?
>> So,
>> oh,
this
stock
is
a
rocket.
So,
that's
at
40.
>> You
see
any
people
like
security
guards?
>> So
many
people,
>> huh?
>> And
I
mean,
it's
there.
>> I
don't
know.
you've
seen
like
Silicon
Valley
and
there's
that
scene
where
there's
like
one
guy
in
the
data
center
and
he's
like,
"Yeah,
you
know,
night
and
day
don't
really
matter
much
down
here
and
it's
just
one
guy
running."
But
>> in
the
buildout,
I
mean,
there
are
every
single
HVAC
technician
or
guy
that
knows
how
to
lay
fiber
or
guy
that
knows
electrical
or
plumbing.
Uh
within
a
100
mile
radius
of
Abene,
those
are
they're
all
there,
right?
There's
7,000
people
working
on
building
this
and
this
is
just
one
site.
And
uh
yeah,
>> so
people
have
been
talking
about
the
picks
and
shovels
fa
phase
of
AI
investment
for
a
while
now,
but
it
seems
like
stuff
is
still
getting
built
and
it
has
further
to
run.
my
kind
of
favorite
we
can
you
know
and
I'm
sure
we
will
discuss
whether
this
is
a
bubble
or
not
but
at
the
end
of
the
day
the
money
is
getting
spent
and
my
favorite
kind
of
setup
in
the
market
is
you
have
something
that
has
a
multiple
that
reflects
kind
of
a
wrong
reality
or
doesn't
really
fully
integrate
a
secular
theme
and
then
you
have
a
cycle
that's
really
bad.
So
whether
it's
kind
of
the
robotic
supply
chain
goes
throughout
the
automotive
cycle
and
if
you
guys
are
aware
that's
been
a
nightmare.
Uh
and
then
you
have
some
of
these
a
lot
of
these
companies
took
really
significant
draw
downs
when
Trump
got
elected
>> because
uh
the
>> this
isn't
really
tech
capex.
It's
much
more
similar
to
like
LG
terminal
capex
>> that
kind
of
entails
the
same
companies
that
were
benefiting
from
the
IRA.
Oh,
interesting.
>> So,
everyone
sold
them
and
now
it
turns
out
it's
kind
of
like
the
horseshoe
theory,
right?
You
can
>> No,
that's
super
interesting.
Like,
it's
just
these
sort
of
like
oldline
industrials
and
they
did
very
well
under
the
Obama
administration
because
of
all
the
factories
and
all
that
stuff
that
we
talked
about
and
then
it's
like,
okay,
we're
pulling
the
plug
on
this,
but
now
there's
just
this
title
wave
of
money.
By
the
way,
Caterpillar
was
a
$334
stock
on
April
2nd,
right
before
Liberation
Day,
which
is
sort
of
where
we
should
benchmark
things.
now
486
at
an
all-time
high.
What
are
some
of
the
other
companies
you
see
out
there?
No,
for
real,
like
>> preferably
the
ones
that
haven't
gone
up
yet,
right?
>> Yeah.
Well,
but
seriously,
like
who
else
is
uh
who
else
is
getting
a
piece
of
this
action?
>> So,
uh
something
that
I
want
to
make
sure
I
mention
just
to
frame
this
whole
thing,
uh
if
you
look
at
the
building
site
plans,
they
have
the
names
of
all
the
data
halls
and
they
are
literally
each
called
Ludicrous
Building.
So,
it's
Ludicrous
Building
One,
Ludicrous
Building
Two.
Wait,
is
it
Ludicrous
with
a
K?
>> No.
>> Oh,
that
would
be
great.
>> I
mean,
Ludicrous
spelled
correctly
is
also
fantastic,
but
>> uh
the
compet
I
mean
really
I
would
encourage
anyone
to
go
and
look
at
this
video
because
the
the
it's
it's
just
a
there
is
such
a
disconnect
between
looking
at
green
numbers
going
up
like
like
caterpillar
going
you
okay
cool.
Yeah.
And
then
you
see
it
and
it
is
mind-blowing.
I
mean
they
have
rows
of
uh
dry
and
adiatic
coolers
that
are
you
know
hundreds
and
hundreds
for
the
liquid
cooling
loops
>> and
then
you
have
uh
the
kind
of
uh
all
the
HVAC
the
power
generation
transmission.
>> We
compiled
a
list
of
basically
200
companies
50
of
which
were
high
confidence
in
in
kind
of
seeing
as
part
of
this
buildout.
And
the
interesting
thing
is
you
have
these
multinational
OEMs.
The
scale
of
this
project
is
so
large
that
you
can
call
one
of
them
and
say
okay
we
want
to
go
with
uh
you
know
uh
Mitsubishi
heavy
or
we
want
to
use
uh
eaten
for
for
this
thing
and
they
will
say
yeah
okay
well
we
can
do
60%
of
it.
>> I
mean
it
it
the
biggest
companies
in
the
world
are
are
yeah
>> they're
just
fighting
they
don't
have
to
fight
with
each
other
because
the
pie
is
so
big.
how
scarce,
you
know,
there's
all
this
um
around
the
country
there's
been
all
this
tension
like
is
there
going
to
be
enough
energy
for
data
centers?
What
about
the
water?
What
about
the
politics?
People
we
see
these
uh
town
halls
where
the
locals
still
want
a
data
center.
How
scarce
are
locations
like
Abolene?
I
mean,
there's
a
lot
of
empty
space
in
Texas.
Could
you
see
are
there
more
Stargates
or
more
Abalines
out
there
waiting
where
the
companies
can
just
say,
you
know
what,
we're
just
going
to
build
our
own
infrastructure.
we're
going
to
build
our
own
natural
gas
plant
and
we're
just
going
to
do
it
in
the
desert
in
Texas
where
we
don't
have
to
worry
about
nimbies
or
local
politics
or
anything.
Is
that
the
future
for
a
lot
of
this
stuff?
>> Yeah,
there's
already
another
uh
facility
that's
planned
in
Shackleford,
Texas,
which
is
not
too
far
from
Abalene.
Abalene
is
already
planning
on
expanding
by
another
600
megawatts.
I
mean,
that's
how
we're
measuring
data
centers
now
is
is
just
in
megawatts
and
gigawatts.
Uh
in
Louisiana,
that's
where
Meta
is
building
Hyperion.
you
have
uh
some
uh
unidentified
or
unannounced
Midwest
facility
that'll
probably
be
in
Ohio.
Uh
basically,
yeah,
anywhere
that
you
can
get
the
gas,
anywhere
you
can
get
the
power,
anywhere
that
there's
the
land.
Uh
there
was
one
planned
in
Indianapolis.
And
it's
interesting
you
bring
up
water
cuz
we
wrote
about
water
a
little
while
ago
as
well,
and
we
were
basing
our
projections
off
of
what
the
water
consumption
of
like
existing
data
centers
were.
The
advancements
in
liquid
cooling
have
changed
that
a
lot.
So
there
was
a
huge
kind
of
uproar
about
well
this
data
center
is
going
to
use
so
much
water
and
if
you
look
at
it
this
was
in
Indianapolis
and
if
you
look
at
it
it's
about
the
same
amount
of
water
as
a
thousand
households
because
it's
all
closed
loop
liquid
cooling
now
the
water
just
gets
recycled
and
and
filtered
back.
So,
it's
really
just
something
where
the
constraint
is
still
power
and
getting
these
kind
of
turbines
and
it's
and
and
it's
going
to
increasingly
become
a
thing
where
it's
behind
the
meter
power
generation.
>> They're
just
going
to
build
their
own
power
plants.
They're
not
going
to
rely
on
the
grid.
You
guys
remember
what
happened
in
Texas
in
21
with
Erica?
Yeah.
They
you
cannot
underwrite
that
as
a
data
center.
>> Like
uh
you
you
just
can't
be
offline.
So
that's
kind
of
where
we're
headed
is
this
power
and
energy
kind
of
bottleneck
is
the
bottleneck.
The
mo
one
of
the
more
interesting
things
we
ran
across
is
you
look
at
XAI's
data
center
and
we
went
through
a
lot
of
the
filings
of
all
these
different
data
centers.
are
permitted
for
15
35
megawatt
turbines
>> and
there's
thermal
imaging
of
the
site
that
shows
they're
using
35
>> H
gnova
another
one
that
was
a
330
>> you're
just
typing
tickers.
>> Yeah,
that
was
a
$330
stock
on
April
2nd.
That's
a
$69
stock.
So
check
out
Seaman's
Energy.
>> Thank
you,
Joe.
Oh,
he's
he's
doing
it.
>> You
could
you
could
keep
going.
>> All
right.
Um
I
have
kind
of
this
isn't
an
essential
question,
but
>> Okay,
wait.
I
got
it.
Hey,
Sean.
I
knew
this
was
going
to
happen.
I
know.
Seaman's
Energy
was
a
$56
stock
on
April
2nd.
That's
108.
That's
a
straight
lineup.
Okay.
>> Okay.
Clearly,
someone's
making
money.
>> Yeah.
[Music]
Like
how
big
are
the
walls
of
these
things?
And
what
does
security
actually
look
like?
Because,
you
know,
we
talk
about
people
being
upset
about
higher
energy
prices.
I
understand
that
maybe
some
of
the
some
of
them
are
building
out
their
own
energy
capacity,
but
you
know,
in
a
populist
mindset,
people
might
still
be
upset
at
AI.
Still
upset
that
AI
is
going
to
take
jobs
and
things
like
that.
They
could
become
targets,
right?
>> Yeah,
absolutely.
I
I
I
mean,
apparently
security
isn't
tight
enough
to
shoot
down
a
drone
yet.
>> Oh,
of
course.
Yeah.
But
when
you
talk
about
the
walls,
like
the
interesting
thing
is
everything
in
this
data
center
has
you
can't
just
build
it
like
a
house.
>> Everything
needs
to
have
the
right,
you
know,
anti-corrosion,
uh,
insulation.
You
can't
just
be
losing
heat.
You're
already
spending
so
much
money
on
cooling.
So
everything
in
the
building
envelope
is
also
kind
of
the
most
expensive
thing
it
could
be.
>> And
I
assume
it's
like
a
sealed
envelope,
I
guess.
>> Yeah,
exactly.
and
and
uh
the
the
opportunity
of
just
how
how
big
is
this
going
to
be
if
you
actually
believe
the
the
the
people
that
are
building
this
uh
and
this
is
kind
of
an
interesting
dynamic
of
the
hyperscalers
are
in
somewhat
of
a
prisoner's
dilemma.
We
can't
speak
to
whether
they
actually
uh
believe
or
not,
but
the
party
line
is
we're
building
machine
God.
>> And
if
we're
building
machine
God,
then
that's
kind
of
a
religious
zealatry.
So
uh
3
years
ago
most
of
these
hyperscalers
were
making
net
zero
by
2030.
Uh
that
is
not
happening.
There's
no
way
that's
happening.
Uh
maybe
they
buy
carbon
off
it
but
that's
not
happening
because
if
you
need
to
do
it
now
you're
using
natural
gas.
>> And
then
you
say
well
once
we
create
machine
God
machine
God
will
fix
it
>> right
>> and
you
can
justify
a
lot
of
stuff.
>> Wait.
Okay.
So,
let's
talk
about
is
AI
in
a
bubble?
Cuz
when
when
we're
conversing
about
buildings
that
are
literally
called
Ludicrous
and
we're
talking
about
machine
God
will
solve
all
our
problems,
sounds
a
little
bubbly.
>> Yeah,
that's
the
kind
of
stuff
you
look
back
on
and
say,
"Oh,
yeah,
that
was
the
top."
>> I
know
that
we
we
have
to
talk
about
this
and
that
requires
some
numbers,
so
I
have
some
notes.
But
the
interesting
I
mean
you
can
make
a
case
for
either
side
and
it
kind
of
hinges
on
not
so
much
what
AI
looks
like
in
the
future
but
more
where
we
are
in
the
cycle.
If
the
question
is
is
AI
a
bubble?
Yeah,
probably.
It's
a
new
technology.
It's
exciting.
Every
single
time
we've
the
railroads,
the
you
know
com
if
it's
not
a
bubble,
it
will
be
and
it
probably
is
already.
>> But
where
are
we
in
the
bubble?
That's
the
interesting
thing
for
investors.
So
if
you
look
at
kind
of
where
are
we
in
the
financing
side?
When
we
had
the.com
bubble,
the
big
thing
uh
are
you
guys
familiar
with
dark
fiber?
>> No.
>> So
essentially
they
were
building
out
this
kind
of
infrastructure
for
the
internet
and
uh
the
the
conviction
of
the
day
was
the
internet's
going
to
be
the
biggest
thing
in
the
world.
Correct.
And
97%
of
the
fiber
that
was
laid
was
called
dark
fiber
because
it
wasn't
lit
up.
It
was
just
laying
there
because
eventually
we're
going
to
need
it.
That's
not
the
case
right
now.
Every
single
time
that
one
of
these
data
centers
comes
online,
you're
at
100%
utilization.
There's
no
dark
fiber.
And
we're
continuing
to
need
more.
I
mean,
I
don't
know if
you
guys
saw
Sora
2,
more
than
70%
of
the
content
that
we
consume
is
video.
>> So,
a
video
model
makes
a
lot
of
sense.
It's
also
way
more
computensive.
And
the
the
final
form
of
chat
AI
is
not
chat
bots.
It's
going
to
be
video.
It's
going
to
be
robotics
which
use
video
models.
So
that's
kind
of
like
the
the
bullish
side,
but
I
totally
see
I
have
some
numbers
here.
So
we've
had
some
of
these
circular
deals.
Um
>> and
uh
>> so
far
I
mean
there's
hundreds
of
billions
of
dollars
for
this.
Most
of
the
financing
is
structured
much
more
like
toll
roads
or
or
LG
terminals.
The
Meta
Hyperion
was
$29
billion.
uh
26
billion
of
that
was
PIMCO
on
debt
and
then
Blue
Owl
with
3
billion
of
equity.
An
offbalance
sheet
arrangement
which
also
was
pretty
popular
during
the
com
bubble.
Then
you
have
stuff
like
GPU
collateralized
SPVS.
Coreweave
has
a
7.5
billion
Blackstone
SPV.
There's
like
an
11
billion
dollar
GPUbacked
loan
market
now
which
compared
to
the
the
infrastructure
thing
I
can
get
the
that
it's
like
those
GPUs
are
going
to
be
worth
like
they
will
depreciate.
So
>> that's
that's
ABS,
right?
That's
like
asset
back
securities.
Okay.
>> Yeah.
But
when
you
look
at
the
where
we
just
saying
where
are
we
in
the
cycle?
Well,
>> there's
been
there's
been
a
lot
of
these
off
balance
sheet
arrangements.
But
in
terms
of
that
prisoners
dilemma
that
we
spoke
about
where
nobody's
going
to
back
off
because
then
maybe
they
risk
not
creating
machine
God.
The
debt
to
equity
ratio
on
most
of
the
hyperscalers
is
not
crazy.
Sure,
>> Oracle
has
the
highest
and
but
they
still
have
a
lot
of
room
to
lever
up
in
pursuit
of
this
goal.
The
interesting
kind
of
dynamic
of
Nvidia
finances
its
customers
and
then
its
customers
buy
Nvidia
GPUs
and
then
you
know
that
yeah
that's
a
bubble
dynamic
that's
that's
visible
circular
financing
and
and
but
the
demand
is
real.
Well,
this
is
my
this
is
I
guess
the
question.
If
the
demand
is
real,
why
are
the
Nvidia
of
the
world
financing
their
customers,
right?
Intuitively,
you
think,
okay,
Nvidia's
the
demand
for
chips
is
maxed
out,
right?
Then
intuitively,
you
think,
well,
then
there's
plenty
of
money
elsewhere.
So,
do
you
have
a
uh
guess
for
why
Nvidia
is
impelled
to,
you
know,
invest
in
OpenAI,
invest
in
Corewave?
It's
been
a
long
time
investor
in
Cororeweave
and
so
forth.
Yeah,
I
I
could
I
could
take
the
very
skeptical
view
or
the
kind
of
not
skeptical
view.
The
not
skeptical
view
is
the
best
thing
for
Nvidia
is
that
we
accomplish
AGI.
So,
anything
that
it
can
do
to
get
us
closer
to
that
massive
massive
infrastructure
that's
required
for
that
is
great
for
them
>> as
quickly
as
possible.
>> As
quickly
as
possible
because
uh
every
year
that
you
don't
achieve
AGI
becomes
less
likely.
So,
uh,
that
is
maybe
the
core
factor.
And
then
there's
>> it's
good
for
for
them
and,
uh,
the
the
and
playing
into
that
>> the
because
this
this
isn't
necessarily
like
the
dot
bubble
because
the.com
bubble
had
fiber
and
then
it
had,
you
know,
pets.com
and
and
Amazon
and
all
that
stuff.
This
is
all
pretty
much
capex,
right?
Tech
is
capital
intensive
again,
which
means
that
it's
the
bust
won't
necessarily
be
like
the.com
bubble
where
it
gives
the
real
players
time
to
shine.
If
the
capex
spending
grinds
to
a
halt
because
the
market
goes
down,
that's
the
worst
thing
in
the
world.
So,
in
a
way,
it's
also
it's
in
their
interest
obviously
to
make
sure
that
that
doesn't
happen.
Another
[Music]
question
actually
but
and
I
want
to
ask
it
now
because
I
might
forget.
Um
there
was
a
headline
I
think
earlier
this
week
again
headlines
almost
every
day.
Can
you
explain
why
Meta
which
is
building
out
which
obviously
hyperscaler
they
have
tons
of
data
center
capacity.
Why
do
they
need
to
do
a
deal
with
coreweave?
So
I
saw
that
meta
is
going
to
uh
pay
a
few
bill
14
billion
some
number
for
capacity
on
core.
What
can
the
what
do
the
neoclouds
bring
to
the
table
such
that
the
legacy
is
like
you
know what
we
we
want
some
of
your
capacity?
>> It's
basically
I
would
say
anything
you
can
do
to
shift
that
capex
away
from
yourself
is
is
great.
Right?
If
if
you're
if
you're
right
now
a
lot
of
this
stuff
is
funded
from
cash
flow
and
yeah,
we're
starting
to
see
debt
financing
take
its
place,
but
if
you
the
the
you're
running
a
company
that's
existed
for
a
while
and
is
one
of
the
biggest
companies
in
the
world
and
yes,
you
could
justify
taking
inordinate
amount
amounts
of
risk
to
do
this,
but
just
like
anyone
else,
if
you
have
a
goal
and
you
can
kind
of
shift
away
some
of
that
risk
to
because
if
you
know,
if
Cororeweave
goes
bankrupt,
Meta's
not
it's
not
it's
not
the
worst
thing
in
the
world
for
Meta.
What
would
you
be
looking
out
for
for
signs
of
the
bubble
bursting
or
I
guess
the
capex
um
faucet
starting
to
turn
off?
>> So,
in
terms
of
like
the
uh
warning
signs
first,
monitoring
used
GPU
prices,
I
think
is
a
great
way
to
to
see
what's
going
on.
Seeing
like
contract
renegotiations,
waiver
headlines
from
private
credit,
and
also
a
big
one
would
be
any
delays
in
delivering
power.
uh
make
it
so
that
you
finance
this
thing
and
then
it's
not
going
to
be
able
to
work
>> right.
I
do
think
that
another
in
you
really
do
have
to
kind
of
index
to
the
revenue
that's
being
generated
by
the
AI
companies
as
well.
And
I
don't
you
saw
OpenAI
recently
announced
that
they're
uh
basically
allowing
you
to
buy
things
with
one
click
from
the
inside
the
app.
Mhm.
>> And
I
think
that
that
was
also
a
big
uh
driving
factor
in
the
router
where
they
kind
of
route
your
model
to
the
it's
it's
it's
setting
it
up
for
advertising
cuz
the
other
day
I
asked
Google
a
pretty
simple
question
and
it
just
gave
me
the
answer
>> with
no
advertisements
delivered
to
me.
So
we
need
to
I
think
that
there
is
the
killer
apps
kind
of
are
here
or
coming
but
that
has
to
happen
fast.
>> Yeah.
the
um
the
fact
that
the
internet
kind
of
runs
on
ads
is
an
underappreciated
reality
of
our
world
and
we
did
an
episode
on
it
way
way
back
in
the
day.
Is
there
any
way
if
I
wanted
to
get
exposure
to
like
the
good
stuff
of
AI,
the
actual
money
being
spent,
but
then
I
don't
like
all
the
circular
financing
arrangements.
Is
there
a
way
to
hedge
that
particular
risk?
Yeah,
you
could
uh
you
could
uh
buy
all
the
real
companies
that
are
building
this
kind
of
uh
data
center
and
then
you
could
short
Blue
Owl
and
the
private
credit
companies
that
are
doing
the
kind
of
uh
financing
aspect
of
it
because
if
it
goes
bad,
they
have
limited
upside
and
kind
of
unlimited
downside.
And
if
it
continues
happening,
the
companies
that
are
actually
building
it
have
unlimited
upside
and
they're
still
like
you
said,
these
old
line
uh
kind
of
industrial
that
like
they
still
have
a
core
business
to
go
back
to.
What's
your
take
on
so
OpenAI
announced
its
new
Sora
thing
that
Tracy
has
a
code
for.
Meta
announced
its
Meta
AI
which
a
lot
of
people's
like
this
is
slop
and
I
don't
we
don't
need
to
get
into
a
debate
about
whether
this
is
all
garbage.
I
kind
of
think
it
is
but
that's
not
actually
the
question
I'm
interested
in.
The
question
I'm
interested
in
is
one
way
to
view
these
things
is
you
know
what
these
are
going
to
be
these
video
these
AI
videos
are
going
to
be
really
important
sort
of
business
revenue
drivers
in
our
pursuit
to
AGI
and
the
other
view
is
look
if
they
were
close
to
AGI
they
would
not
be
devoting
time
to
the
slot
factories
and
this
is
the
sort
of
question
and
I'm
curious
from
your
perspective
what
do
you
think
is
the
real
logic
behind
all
of
this
effort
to
create
these
sort
of
you
know
dumb
like
oh
a
video
of
a
astron
not
riding
a
horse
through
space
with
a,
you
know,
cowboy
hat
on
or
whatever.
>> Video
models
are
going
to
become
the
most
important
part
of
this.
You
uh
you
need,
for
example,
LLMs
don't
really
interact
with
the
world,
>> but
we're
starting
to
see
in
robotics
AI
models
interact
with
the
world.
So
you
have
these
video
language
action
models
and
you
can
structure
it
so
that
there
was
a
interesting
paper
on
archive
recently
that
uh
and
you
know
this
is
uh
video
models
like
V3
are
emergent
zerosot
learners
and
understanders
and
what
that
just
means
is
you
can
give
it
uh
basically
like
a
second
of
context
and
then
it
can
extrapolate
about
what's
going
on
beyond
that
becomes
extremely
important
for
robotics
and
you
can
structure
these
vision
language
action
models
where
you
have
uh
like
a
slow
reasoning
model
that
is
kind
of
like
your
conscious
mind
and
determines
what
it
needs
to
do
and
then
you
have
like
a
fast
model
that
actually
does
the
movements
and
stuff.
AI
kind
of
extends
into
the
realm
of
you
need
to
generate
as
much
data
as
possible
and
having,
you
know,
video
data
and
knowing
what's
good
and
what's
bad
is
also
very
important.
But
yeah,
to
your
question,
Open
AI
probably
does
want
to
show
that
they're
making
more
money.
And
I
don't
doubt
that
there
are
people
there
that
truly
believe
that
they're
building
the
machine
god.
And
I
also
don't
doubt
that
they
realize
if
they
to
have
a
shot
at
doing
that,
they
need
the
market
to
play
along
and
they
need
to
keep
growing
their
revenues.
So
I
think
there's
a
lot
of
really
good
counterarguments
about
like
not
necessarily
are
we
in
a
bubble?
Yes.
Uh
is
the
bubble
over?
Like
there
are
good
arguments
for
that.
I
don't
think
one
of
the
I
don't
think
that
oh
well
they're
leaning
into
like
kind
of
this
slops
that
you
know
it's
a
company.
They're
going
to
do
whatever
they
can
to
make
money.
That's
capitalism.
>> Um,
you
know,
one
of
the
things
I
think
about
another
reality
of
our
current
time,
this
is
kind
of
related,
but
if
we're
talking
about
video
data,
YouTube
staying
power
has
been
like
phenomenal,
right?
It's
been
around
for
decades
now,
and
we
haven't
really
seen
any
successful
competitors.
>> Anyway,
>> well,
since
uh
we
wanted
to
talk
about
stocks
that
are
going
up,
I
I
know
>> that's
another
one.
Uh
people
kind
of
forgot
that
video
takes
up
a
lot
more
storage
than
text
does.
And
if
we're
going
to
start
just
like
throwing
out
the
slop
on
video,
the
part
basically
one
of
the
only
areas
of
semiconductors
that
has
gotten
ignored
has
been
storage.
Not
like
not
like
memory
like
like
uh
RAM
and
stuff,
but
like
hard
drives
and
solid
state
discs
like
Western
Digital
and
uh
you
know.
>> Okay.
So
Seagate.
>> Yeah.
>> That's
what
we're
talking
about.
So
this
was
a
this
was
a
$84
stock
in
late
March
and
now
it's
a
254.
That's
where
you're
going,
right?
Okay.
>> Yeah.
And
yeah,
there's
a
crazy
there's
a
crazy
chart,
>> but
it
has
gotten
attention,
but
you
think
it
could
go
up
more.
>> I
think
so.
And
I
think
that
uh
to
illustrate
that
dynamic
that's
going
to
keep
happening.
Basically,
you
just
keep
looking
at
stuff
where
there's
people
say,
"Oh,
well,
you
know,
there's
a
there's
a
glut
of
X
and
that's
why
this
isn't
going
to
win
from
AI."
And
then
eventually
the
glut
of
X
doesn't
matter.
It's
a
that
that's
what
happened
to
Nvidia
in
the
beginning
of
all
this.
There
was
a
glut
of
crypto
GPUs
and
now
nobody
car
like
when's
the
last
time
you
heard
someone
bearish
on
Nvidia
because
there's
too
many
crypto
miners.
>> SanDisk
was
$48
in
April
2nd.
That's
$126
stock.
Pretty
crazy.
These
are
just
these
are
like
just
the
tools
are
just
store
just
basic.
Yeah.
>> Yeah.
Crazy.
>> It's
it
is.
And
uh
it's
it
I
guess
you
could
be
worried
by
that
or
you
could
say
this
isn't
uh
this
isn't
like
Nvidia
doubling
in
a
month
necessarily,
right?
That
it's
just
people
discovering
I
think
it's
a
good
barometer
which
is
important
in
a
bubble
that
people
are
still
paying
very
close
attention
>> and
uh
you
start
to
get
worried
when
everybody
just
goes
into
the
Cisco
of
it
all.
But
these
are
real
companies
that
have
real
products.
Of
course,
there's
some
silly
stuff
that's
happening,
but
it's
not
only
silly
stuff.
It's
not
2021
with
the,
you
know,
>> yeah,
>> I
don't
need
to.
>> So,
speaking
of
on
the
ground
research,
or
maybe
I
should
say
in
the
sky
research.
When
it
comes
to
robotics,
you
had
a
robot
dog,
right?
One
of
those
like
really
advanced
ones.
>> We
got
a
unitry
robot
dog.
It
is
super
impressive.
It's
also
incredibly
creepy
when
it
stands
up
on
its
hind
legs.
>> Yeah.
Have
you
seen
the
video?
>> Yeah,
I
saw
your
video
of
it.
Yeah.
>> It's
uh
and
Unitry.
We
went
and
visited
Unitry,
too.
And
it's
I've
seen
Boston
Dynamics
uh
you
know,
spot
robot,
which
is
actually
more
impressive.
Also
could
probably
murder
you
like
and
and
the
interesting
thing
about
Unitry
is
yeah,
this
the
robot
kind
of
feels
like
a
weapon.
It's
very
heavy
and
stuff,
but
it's
even
they're
humanoid
like
it
can't
lift
more
than
8
pounds.
And
also,
Unitry
is
not
focused
on
like
making
the
brain.
They
just
want
to
make
the
hardware.
And
you
go
there
and
they
were
like,
"Where's
your
LAR
from?"
Oh,
well,
we
needed
this
specific
thing,
so
we
just
made
it
ourselves.
>> H
>> Okay.
Where
what
about
your
actuators?
Well,
we
made
those
ourselves,
too.
Anything
that
they
don't
make
themselves,
they
get
within
a
90
km
radius
of
their
headquarters.
>> Wait,
where's
their
headquarters?
It's
in
uh
Hanghao.
>> Nice.
>> So,
it's
something
where
you're
really
that's
the
competition
that
we
have
stacked
up
against
us
in
the
US
versus
China.
And
>> I
think
the
interesting
route
that
they've
taken
is
>> it's
super
advanced.
You
can
code
on
it.
You
can
you
can
already
see
videos
of
people,
you
know,
buying
them
and
making
them
do
specific
things.
But
they
made
them
not
super
like
it's
not
going
to
kill
you.
And
that's
a
great
way
to
get
a
bunch
of
training
data
because
we
don't
have
enough
training
data
of
what
it's
like
to
move
around
the
world.
We
have
the
sum
history
of
all
human
knowledge
that's
been
recorded
for
text
models,
but
we
need
more
data
for
robotics.
And
I
think
that
that's
like
an
interesting
kind
of
thing
where
they're
just
kind
of
sending
these
out
into
the
world
so
that
they
can
get
enough
data
to
actually
make
it
safe
enough
to
have
a
robot
in
your
house.
>> How
can
anyone
buy
a
unit
dog?
Like
are
they
for
is
for
sale
online?
Yeah,
there
there's
a
lead
time,
but
uh
I
can
get
around
it
if
you
>> Wait,
how
much
are
they?
>> Uh
so
they
start
at
uh
3,000
and
then
uh
we
got
the
the
super
advanced
one
that
you
can
attach
a
robotic
arm
to
so
it
can
manipulate
its
environment
and
that
was
$8,000.
And
then
their
humanoid
is
16,
which
is
like
less
than
the
cost
of
a
used
Honda.
>> That's
not
bad.
>> Well,
3,000
also
the
price
for
like
a
really
good
purebred
dog.
>> Well,
that's
what
I
was
going
to
say.
Like
right
there
people
pay
a
lot
of
money
for
actual
dogs.
So
yeah,
it
seems
>> Why
are
you
looking
at
me?
>> Why
do
you
think
I'm
looking
at
you?
>> Okay,
James,
that
was
so
much
fun.
Thank
you
so
much
for
coming
in
and
uh
sharing
with
us
your
your
field
trip
observations.
>> Thanks,
Rob.
[Music]
Joe,
I
think
maybe
it's
the
cynical
journalist
in
me,
but
I
get
really
nervous
when
we
start
saying
it's
different
this
time.
>> Yeah.
I
mean,
it's
always
different.
It's
always
the
same.
It's
sort
of
there
certainly,
you
know.
Yeah.
I
mean,
look,
it's
crazy
and
it's
a
lot
of
money
and
it's
still,
you
know,
we've
been
asking
people
on
the
podcast,
what
kind
of
use
value
are
you
getting
out
of
this
technology?
And
it's
still
very
ambiguous.
Um,
>> I
don't
know.
I
don't
have
It's
not
my
job
to
time
the
market.
So,
I'm
glad
I
don't
have
to
have
a
view
on
all
of
this
stuff.
But
I
do
think
>> that's
a
copout,
Joe.
>> No,
I
do
think
I
do
think
for
Okay,
what's
your
Okay,
give
us
your
Give
us
your
price
target.
You
That's
a
Okay,
give
give
us
your
price
target.
Okay.
Um,
I
do
think
this
is
moving
so
fast
and
every
day
the
numbers
are
so
big
and
it's
the
stakes
are
so
high
for
all
of
this
that
it
does
feel
like
we
just
need
regular
updates
on
the
state
of
how
much
money
is
being
spent
in
this
area
and
what
the
eventual
payoff
will
be.
>> I
want
someone
to
draw
a
massive
like
infographic
of
all
the
financing
details
because
I
think
you
could
make
a
really
interesting
one.
>> Yeah,
you
definitely
could.
>> That
would
probably
be
illuminating.
On
that
note,
I
did
think
James'
suggestion
of,
you
know,
shorting
the
private
credit
players
and
then
going
long
the
actual
physical
hardware
ones.
That
was
interesting.
>> Yeah.
No,
it's
really
interesting.
Also,
I
had
not
realized
I
mean,
it
is
very
interesting
the
way
booms
or
bubbles,
whatever
you
want
to
call
it.
I
don't
like
using
the
word
bubble
because
that
applies
whatever
booms
or
bubbles,
the
way
they
spread
out.
I
just
think
that's
extremely
interesting.
Right.
So
Nvidia
takes
off
in
late
2022
when
people
are
blown
away
by
Chat
GPT
and
they
say
this
incredible
and
it's
being
powered
by
all
these
uh
Nvidia
chips
and
then
people
go
on
the
hunt
right
for
other
things.
It's
like
what
else?
And
even
still
today
in
October
2025,
that
spreading
out
process
continues.
And
so,
okay,
in
the
last
few
months,
maybe
it's
like
a
caterpillar
or
maybe
suddenly
people
realizing
that
just
sort
of
old-fashioned
computer
storage
is
going
to
be
very
hot,
but
we're
still
in
this
phase
where
as
people
open
their
eyes
to
these
things,
the
spreading
out
uh
continues
to
this
day.
>> Right.
Well,
also
there's
an
expectation
that
eventually,
you
know,
normal
companies
are
going
to
benefit
from
it
as
well
and
become
more
efficient
and
all
of
that.
>> I
just
remembered
I
the
one
question
I
was
going
to
ask
James,
but
I
could
just
throw
it
out
as
sort
of
a
speculative
question.
So,
he
mentioned
all
of
the
workers.
Could
you
ask
all
of
the
workers
that
are
out
this
are
building
these
things?
And
it
does
make
me
wonder
about
the
sort
of
crowding
out
possibility.
Like
imagine
if
you
imagine
if
you
had
some
other
business
in
Abelene
and
you're
trying
to
hire
an
HVAC
worker
right
now
because
HVAC,
you
know,
you're
like,
"Oh,
restaurant
competing
with
like
Open
AI."
>> Yeah.
You're
like
you're
you
have
a
restaurant
in
Abene
and
you're
like,
"You
know what?
I
need
to
update
my
air
conditioner
or
whatever
or
what
and
what
are
you
going
to
do
because
all
the
HVAC
workers
are
at
that
uh
big
Stargate
operation."
And
I
do
think
this
is
a
very
interesting
macro
question
on
all
kinds
of
things,
which
is
the
degree
to
which
all
of
this
spending
with
uncertain
payoffs
will
have
a
crowding
out
and
potentially
inflationary
effect
on
the
rest
of
the
economy.
>> Well,
presumably
machine
God
will
eventually
design
HVAC
robots.
So,
problem
will
be
solved.
>> Problem
will
be
solved.
>> All
right.
Shall
we
leave
it
there?
>> Let's
leave
it
there.
>> This
has
been
another
episode
of
the
Odd
Thoughts
podcast.
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Tracy
Aloway.
You
can
follow
me
at
Tracy
Aloway.
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Weisenthal.
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