--- author: TVO Today date: '2026-02-13' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6mqwMdgSs0 speaker: TVO Today tags: - hostage-negotiation - political-rhetoric - societal-anxiety - communication-strategies - leverage-tactics title: 人质谈判专家解析：如何理解政治中的“人质效应”与沟通策略 summary: 前警探兼人质谈判专家 J. Paul Nadeau 探讨了“人质效应”如何体现在当今政治语境中，以及其与唐纳德·特朗普的互动。他解释了谈判的核心原则，如寻求理解和建立信任，并分析了这些原则在公开政治舞台和社交媒体环境下的适用性与局限性。Nadeau 通过真实案例和理论，阐述了即使在非传统危机中，理解对方需求和保持沟通渠道畅通的重要性，并强调了在面对不公时进行和平抵抗和谈判的必要性。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: politics-society area: society-thinking project: [] people: [] companies_orgs: [] products_models: [] media_books: - The Hostage Effect status: evergreen --- ### 政治中的人质效应 **主持人**: J. Paul Nadeau 是一位退休的警探和人质谈判专家，他现在来到演播室。你好，Paul？
Original English **Jan**: J. Paul Nadeau is a retired police detective and hostage negotiator, and he joins me in studio. How are you doing, Paul?
**J. Paul Nadeau**: 我很好。Jan，你呢？
Original English >> I'm doing well. Jan, how are you doing?
**主持人**: 我很好。那么，我们来谈谈这件事。我们知道许多政客和媒体在描述与唐纳德·特朗普的谈判时，都使用了“被劫持为人质”这个词。这仅仅是夸张的说法，还是你会说，这是一种准确的描述？
Original English >> I'm doing well. Well, let's let's talk about it. We know that numerous politicians and media have used the term taken hostage in describing their negotiations with Donald Trump. Is that just hyperbole, or is that, would you say, an accurate description?
**J. Paul Nadeau**: 这确实是一种准确的描述。这不仅仅是与特朗普打交道，而是当今世界的状态，民主的不确定性以及各种政策的出台，都让人们感到非常、非常焦虑，感觉自己像是人质。当人们想到人质时，他们会想到被关在笼子里的人，想到被武力劫持的人。但实际上，当我们审视世界现状时，即使我们周围没有笼子，我们仍然可能被当作人质，因为掌权者可以让我们感到不稳定、担忧、不安。所以，是的，这是对正在发生的事情的一种非常准确的描述。
Original English >> That would be an accurate description. Not only is it just dealing with Trump, the state of the world right now with the uncertainties in democracy and in different policies that are coming out, are making people feel very, very anxious and a hostage to me. When people think about hostages, they think about people in cages, they think about people who have been taken by force. But really, when we take a look at the state of the world, we can still be taken hostage, even though there are no cages around us, because the people in control can make us feel unstable, worried, concerned. So yes, that's a very accurate description of what's happening.
### 历史上的相似人物 **主持人**: 在世界舞台上，我们以前见过像唐纳德·特朗普这样的人吗？
Original English >> Have we seen anyone like Donald Trump before? Sort of on the world stage before?
**J. Paul Nadeau**: 哦，我们见过。是的。纵观历史，我们见过不同的人。我不会将唐纳德·特朗普与希特勒相提并论，但看看当年德国的独裁统治，那些不同的做法，被剥夺的权利。但纵观历史，我们确实有过那些真正将自己置于首位的领导人。其结果是，世界上充满了愤怒和不确定性。
Original English >> Oh, we have. Yes. Throughout history we have seen different people. I'm not going to compare Donald Trump to Hitler, but take a look at what happened back then in Germany with the dictatorships, the the different approaches, the rights that were taken away. But throughout history, we have had leaders who have really put themselves first. And consequently there's been there's been a lot of of anger and a lot of uncertainty in the world.
### 《人质效应》的创作缘由 **主持人**: 好的。在你的书《人质效应》（The Hostage Effect）中，你谈到唐纳德·特朗普的再次当选是你决定写这本书的催化剂。请帮我理解一下。
Original English >> All right. In your book, The Hostage Effect, you speak about the re-election of Donald Trump as being sort of the catalyst for for why you decided to write this book. Help me understand that.
**J. Paul Nadeau**: 当唐纳德·特朗普当选时，我开始觉得自己也像个人质。心想：接下来会发生什么？他谈论要接管加拿大，接管格陵兰，各种信息和不确定性层出不穷。我当时想，接下来会发生什么？每天都有新的公告，我感到焦虑。一位我认识的熟人联系我说：“你也这么觉得吗？” 我说：“是的。” 她说：“如果说有什么时候适合你谈论世界感觉像人质，那就是现在了。” 我想了想，觉得她说得对。我们确实感觉像人质，我们被俘虏了。
Original English >> When Donald Trump was elected, I started to feel like a hostage myself. Like, what's going to happen next? He was talking about taking over Canada, taking over Greenland, all kinds of information was coming out and uncertainty. And I felt, well, what's going to happen next? Every day there was a new announcement and I felt anxious, and someone I know quite well reached out to me and says, are you feeling this, too? And I said, yeah. She says, if there was ever a time for you to talk about how the world is feeling like a hostage, it's now. And I thought about that and I thought, you're right. We are feeling like hostages. We're being taken captive.
### 成为人质的早期迹象 **主持人**: 你的书里显然有很多故事，我想了解一下谈判专家的思维模式。你写到的，一个人在困境中成为人质的早期迹象有哪些？
Original English >> There are obviously a number of stories in your book that you talk about, and I want to get sort of into the headspace of a negotiator. What are some of the early signs that a person is becoming a hostage in their situation, that you write about.
**J. Paul Nadeau**: 当他们感觉自己的声音被压制时，当他们觉得随时可能危及自身安全、保障、工作不保时。当一个人感到自己被 immobilised（动弹不得），因为害怕我们的领导人会做什么、说什么或夺走什么而无法前进时。这就是一种人质状态。当我谈到“人质效应”时，它几乎就像一种病毒，一种条件反射。“你必须听我的，事情就会这样发生。” 这就是人们的感受。
Original English >> When they feel that their voices are being silenced, when they feel that at any time their safety can be jeopardised, their security can be jeopardised, their jobs can be gone. When a person feels that they are immobilised and unable to move forward from the fear of what our leaders will do or say or take away from us. That is a state of hostage. When I talk about the hostage effect, it's almost like a virus. It's a conditioning. You will listen to me and this is what's going to happen. So that's how people are feeling.
### 危机谈判的思维模式 **主持人**: 在准备进入一次危机谈判时，什么样的心态是最好的？我们不一定谈论政治家，而是作为你本人，一位谈判专家。当你进入一个情境时，你是什么样的心态？或者也许你有一个想分享的故事？
Original English >> The what sort of mindset is best when preparing to enter a crisis negotiation? We won't talk necessarily as politicians in this case, but as a negotiator yourself. What does that mindset when you're entering into a situation? Or perhaps there is a story that you would like to share.
**J. Paul Nadeau**: 当我准备谈判时，我会尽我所能去了解我要谈判的对象。我们有什么情报？我从人质谈判专家的角度出发。我们对这个人了解多少？情况如何？面前有哪些障碍？我将如何着手？嗯，我首先要做的是，我将首先寻求理解，然后才被理解，因为人们希望被倾听，希望被看见，希望被感受。所以，当你与某人在冲突中，甚至在政治局势中进行谈判时，你的方法必须是友善的、开放的，并且要是一个探究者——我们如何一起努力克服这个困难的局面？我们双方想要什么？我们如何解决这个问题？这就是人质谈判专家的心态。我理解你正在经历很多。嘿，Jeyan，我理解。我来帮忙。如果你有人质，我会这样接近你。我会说：“告诉我发生了什么，这样我才能更好地理解我到底能如何帮助你达到你想要达到的目标。”
Original English >> When I'm preparing for a negotiation, I am trying to find out as much as I possibly can about the person I'm about to negotiate with. What intelligence do we have? I'm going from a hostage negotiators standpoint. What do we know about this person? What are the circumstances? What are the barriers in front of it? How am I going to approach? Well, the first thing I'm going to do is I'm going to seek first to understand and then to be understood, because people want to be heard, they want to be seen, they want to be felt. So when you're negotiating with someone in a conflict or even in a political situation, your approach has to be amicable, has to be open, and has to be someone who's inquiring, what is it that we can do together to work throughout this difficult situation that we're both, you know, what is it that we both want and how can we resolve this? And that's the mindset of a hostage negotiator. I understand you're going through a lot. Hey, Jeyan, I understand. I'm here to help. That's how I would approach you. If you had a hostage. And I would say, tell me what's going on so that I have a better understanding of where I can actually help you to reach what it is that you're trying to reach.
### 真实的谈判案例 **主持人**: 当我们说“人质”、“人质谈判”时，我想我们倾向于想到电影，想到谈判专家被叫来，有电话线，对方远在天边。你被请来，你知道，在帐篷里或临时搭建的地点。你进来，拿起电话开始说话。请分享一些故事，如果有一个谈判让你至今难忘，那是什么样的情景？你能帮助我们理解当时的情况吗？对你正在对话的人，以及你当时在做什么？
Original English >> When we talk, when we when we say hostage, you know, hostages, hostage negotiations, I think we we tend to think of movies and we tend to think of, you know, the negotiator has been called in. There's a phone line, the person is far away. You are now brought in, you know, the sort of the tent or temporary sort of setup. You come in, you grab the phone and you start talking. Help me understand some of the stories. If there was one negotiation that sticks in your mind to this day. What is can you help us understand what that situation was on both ends for the person that you were talking to, but what you were doing?
**J. Paul Nadeau**: 哦，当然。你描述的电影场景，大部分都很准确。基本上就是那样。当有人持武器时，我们不希望进行面对面谈判，因为危险性相当大。所以是电话交谈。我记得我曾与一个情绪失控的男人进行谈判，他劫持了他的分居妻子和四岁的女儿为人质，并威胁要伤害她们，甚至要伤害他自己。我记得我拿起电话，对他说：“嘿，我叫Paul，我是谈判专家，我来帮忙。” 然后我们开始对话，我问他：“告诉我你脑子里在想什么？你现在在哪里？发生了什么？” 然后我聚焦于他对女儿的爱。这成为了一个关键点，去了解对他来说最重要的是什么。“对你来说，什么最重要？你想伤害你的女儿吗？” 有时候你必须问那些艰难的问题。通过那次谈话，我让他敞开心扉，意识到什么对他来说才是真正重要的，然后我与他合作，让他达到一个状态——这需要时间——让他明白，为了所有人的最大利益，是时候释放孩子了，是时候释放他的妻子了。但首先我必须让他走到门口，幸运的是，那是一次非常非常艰难的谈判，但成功了。所有人都活了下来。这就是我们努力的目标。
Original English >> Oh, absolutely. And what you described in the movies. >> Many accurate. >> Very. Okay. Yeah. For the most part. And that's exactly what it is. We don't want face to face negotiations when there's somebody holding a weapon. Because the danger is quite significant. So the telephone conversation and reaching someone I remember negotiating with a man who was distraught, and he had taken his his estranged wife and his four year old daughter hostage, and he had threatened to harm them before and to take their lives and to take his own. And I just remember getting on the phone with him and establishing that, hey, my name is Paul, I'm the negotiator. I'm here to help. And we then engaged in a conversation where I asked him to tell me what was going on in his mind, like, where are you right now? What's happening? And then focusing on the love he had for his daughter. And and that became a catalyst to find out what mattered to him the most. What matters to you here? And do you want to harm your daughter? Sometimes you have to ask the hard questions. And through that conversation, what I had him do is open up and realise what really was important to him, and then work with him to get him to a state where it took time, but where he understood that in everybody's best interest, it was time to release the child. It was time to release his wife. But first I had to get him to the door, which fortunately. And that was a very, very hard negotiation. It worked. Everybody lived. And that's what we're looking to do.
### 特朗普的性格与谈判考量 **主持人**: 让我们回到特朗普。他的性格可能有点反复无常，也许有些人一天到晚都无法预测他会走向何方。你知道，如果看他的社交媒体，深夜的一条推文就能让世界陷入混乱。但基于我们对唐纳德·特朗普的了解，一个谈判专家在考虑他时，最重要的性格方面是什么？正如你所说，在进行谈判之前，你会先了解对方是谁。我们对他了解多少？对你来说，哪些方面最突出，让你觉得可以去谈判？
Original English >> Let's return back to Trump in the sense of his personality might be a bit erratic, where maybe some people might not be able to to sense from one day to the next where he's going to be, you know, if you're on his, on his socials, it's, you know, a late night text sort of sends the world into a bit of chaos. But knowing what we know about Donald Trump, what are the most important aspects of his character for a negotiator to keep in mind? As you mentioned, when you go into these negotiations, you get a sense of who they are before. What do we know about him, and what are the ones that stick out to you as something, as someone who would go into a negotiation?
**J. Paul Nadeau**: 他非常专注于获取各种东西，金钱是其中之一。他说他心中装着美国的最佳利益，他提出了一些相当严厉的主张。他在许多方面做得不错，但在其他方面，感觉他确实在主导事情的发展方式。谈判者必须以开放的心态来处理这种情况，并建立融洽的关系，因为当一个人认识你、喜欢你、信任你时，他们就更愿意与你合作。我们不一定总要同意我们正在讨论或谈判的对象，但我们当然必须让他们说话，让他们感觉被倾听、被理解。否则，就没有成功的可能。再次强调，这归结为信任和好感。这些是关键要素，能让你说：“好吧，我们如何一起努力让这件事奏效？”
Original English >> He's very focussed on acquiring a number of different things, and and money is one of them. He he says that he has the best interests of the United States in hand, and he's making some, some pretty harsh claims. He's doing some good in many areas, but in other areas it feels like he is really dictating the way things are going to happen. A negotiator has to approach that with an open mind and establish a rapport, because when somebody knows you, likes you and trusts you, they're more willing to work with you. We don't always have to agree with the person that we're discussing or negotiating with, but we certainly have to let them speak and to have them feel like they're being heard and feel like they're being understood. Unless we do that, there is no way of succeeding. And again, it comes down to trust, likeability. And those are the important keys that will get you to say, well, how is it that we can work together to make this work?
**主持人**: 你想澄清一下，唐纳德·特朗普此刻并不是字面意义上地劫持人质，对吧？我们当然是在谈论理论上的人质。
Original English >> Do you want to clarify that Donald Trump is not literally taking hostages at the moment? We're talking theoretical ones, of course.
**J. Paul Nadeau**: 不，绝对不是，绝对不是。
Original English >> No, absolutely, absolutely.
### 谈判原则的应用与局限 **主持人**: 我确实想了解一下你所受训和使用过的人质谈判原则。它们是否真正适用于像唐纳德·特朗普这样的人？然后，类比在哪里会失效，也就是说，你必须应用一些稍微不同的东西？
Original English >> I do want to understand sort of the hostage negotiation principles that you have trained on that you've used. Do they like which ones genuinely transfer to someone like Donald Trump? And then where do the analogies break down, where, you know, this is someone where you're going to have to apply something a little different.
**J. Paul Nadeau**: 人质谈判的方法适用于所有情况。我在商业领域也教授这些。在任何地方，都有方法可以接近一个人，让他感到被倾听。就像我之前说的。它会考虑到他们正在经历什么，因为每个人都在经历不同的事情。但除非我们有探究的精神并向人们提出这些问题，否则我们永远不会知道。所以，方法就是开放、愿意合作。如果有冲突，愿意通过冲突来解决。当人们停止沟通，或者举手说：“听着，我受够了，你根本不理解我。” 这就是谈判失败的地方。就像人质谈判一样。如果我有一个劫持了四名人质的劫持者，如果我无法相处，不愿意敞开心扉并花时间，这需要时间。但如果我到了那个地步，我说：“听着，John，好吧，我们就是合不来，你留两个人质，给我两个人质，我们今天就到此为止。” 你不能这样做，对吧？你必须坚持到底，尽你所能有意义地工作，让谈判继续下去。有时会很艰难。你必须回去重新调整，重新思考，重新尝试。我看不出这种情况会发生。
Original English >> The hostage negotiator approaches work in every circumstance. And I teach this in business. And everywhere there is, there is a way of approaching an individual that makes them feel heard. As I said earlier too. And it takes into consideration what they're going through because everybody is going through something different. But unless we have an inquiring mind and ask these, these things of people, we'll never know. So the approach is one of openness, one of willingness to to work. And if there is a conflict willing to work through that conflict, where it falls apart is where people stop communicating or put their hands up and say, listen, I've had enough of this, and you don't see things my way. It's like hostage negotiator. If I if if I had a hostage taker who had four hostages, if I wasn't getting along, wasn't willing to open up and take the time, it takes time. But if I was at that point where I said, listen, John, okay, we're just not getting along, how about you keep two hostages and you give me two hostages? We'll call it a day. You can't do that, right? You have to stay in for the long run and work as as meaningful as you possibly can to keep that negotiation going. Sometimes it's going to be rough. You have to go back and and regroup, rethink re-approach. I don't see that happening.
### 公开场合的谈判挑战 **主持人**: 我想说一点不同之处，可能与你提到的其中一个例子不同，那些谈判是在电话里私下进行的，没有太多噪音。而我们看到唐纳德·特朗普，正如我们提到的，是通过社交媒体，我们看到新闻发布会。当你提到“伏击”这个词时，很多人会想到泽连斯基在白宫与唐纳德·特朗普会面，你知道，两位领导人面对面。那同样不是任何形式的谈判。但是，当谈判对象是为了观众、为了媒体上的支持者而表演时，谈判是如何变化的？
Original English >> I want to what's a little bit different from perhaps some of the negotiations, as you mentioned, with one of your examples, these are done privately on a phone call. There's not a lot of noise. What we're seeing with Donald Trump is, as we mentioned, social media, we're seeing press conferences. When you talk about the word ambush, I think a lot of people think of, you know, Zelensky meeting Donald Trump in the white House and, you know, two leaders across from each other. And that was, again, not a negotiation of any sort. But what how does the negotiation change when the subject is performing for an audience, their supporters on media, for example?
**J. Paul Nadeau**: 情况会发生变化，因为我认为这是一种不被理解的表现，或者是一种自我展示，说：“看，是我，看我有多强硬。” 在某些情况下，当一个人为了媒体而捶胸顿足，说“要么听我的，要么走人”时，你有时就是无法与处于那种心态的人进行谈判，至少在那时不行。然后在幕后，必须有其他方式和手段去尝试接触和重新谈判，并保持那种开放性和意愿。
Original English >> It changes because I believe it's a matter of not being understood or throwing yourself out there and saying, look, it's me, look how tough I am. And that's going to happen in certain situations where an individual for the media will strike their chest and say, it's my way or the highway, and sometimes you just can't negotiate with someone who is in that state of mind, not at that time. And then in the background, there has to be other ways and means of trying to reach out and renegotiate and have that openness and that willingness.
### 寻求筹码与谈判的意义 **主持人**: 有些人可能会说，这是唐纳德·特朗普在试图在某些情况下获得筹码。你对此怎么看？
Original English >> Some might say that this is Donald Trump trying to get leverage in some of these situations. What do you say to that?
**J. Paul Nadeau**: 我说这是真的。是的，我说在他看来，这非常真实。我无法确切告诉你这一切起源于何处。但是的，他确实想要筹码。我们在许多情况下都能看到这一点，即某些东西被剥夺，几乎是从人们手中夺走。这就是为什么他们感觉像人质。
Original English >> I say that's true. Yeah, I say that that that's very true in his mind. And I can't go back and tell you exactly where this all originated from. But yes, he does want leverage. And we're seeing that in many instances where certain things are being taken, almost taken away from people. That's why they're feeling like hostages.
**主持人**: 很多人想知道，为什么还要费力去拿起电话，甚至保持那条线畅通呢？为什么不直接挂断？为什么？为什么还要费力与特朗普谈判？
Original English >> There are many folks who wonder why even bother picking up the phone or even keeping that line active. Why not just hang it up? Why? Why even bother negotiating with Trump?
**J. Paul Nadeau**: 想象一下不这样做。想象一下不站出来，不采取一切可能的行动。正当的行动。想象一下就放弃，说：“好吧，你全拿去了。” 当人们不表达他们的反对意见，并且不以和平方式表达时，一切都会被夺走。我们的权利，我们的声音，我们的特权。这就是为什么继续与像特朗普这样的人谈判，或者继续对你认为是错误的事件进行和平抵抗如此重要。因为不这样做，就会让你成为我们所说的那种人质。你觉得你现在是人质了，那就放弃与特朗普谈判吧。放弃谈论你认为在你国家里存在的不公。那么《1984》就近在眼前了。
Original English >> Imagine not. Imagine not standing up and and taking whatever action you possibly can. Rightful action. Imagine just giving up and saying, okay, you got it all. When people don't express their opposition and do it in a peaceful way, then everything will be taken away. Our rights, our voices, our privileges. This is why it's so important to continue to negotiate with someone like Trump, or to continue to do peaceful resistance as to what you see as an injustice, because not doing it makes you that hostage we're talking about. You think you're a hostage now give up on on negotiating with Trump. Give up on speaking about what you feel are injustices within your country. And 1984 is right around the corner.
### 给谈判专家的建议 **主持人**: 让我们谈谈我们国家的主要谈判代表，马克·卡尼。我来引用电影里的说法。如果你发现自己和卡尼在同一部电梯里，也许你有 30 秒的时间，在他离开之前。你会给他什么建议，当他进入与唐纳德·特朗普的又一轮谈判时？
Original English >> Let's talk about our lead negotiator here in this country, Mark Carney. I'm going to play to the movies here. If you found yourself in an elevator with Carney, maybe you've got 30 seconds before he goes. What advice would you give him as he enters another round of negotiations with Donald Trump?
**J. Paul Nadeau**: 学会如何谈判。学会如何说话，如何倾听，并表现出真诚的兴趣。我会这么说。你必须采取立场，并且要带着一定的权威，但你也必须愿意倾听。再次强调，我回到史蒂芬·柯维（Stephen Covey）多年来所说的，在他的书和演讲中：首先寻求理解，然后才被理解。知道你想要从交易中得到什么，但也要问对方。愿意参与并建立信任，而不是采取攻击性姿态。但我还没看到过这样的谈判。这就是问题所在。我还没看到过。
Original English >> Learn how to negotiate. Learn how to learn how to to speak, to listen and to show genuine interest. I would say. You have to take a stance and you have to do it with a certain amount of authority, but you also have to be willing to listen. And again, I go back to what Stephen Covey has said for many, many years. And in his books and his speaks, his talks seek first to understand, then to be understood. Know what you want out of the deal, but also ask the other individual. Be willing to engage and build that trust, not take an offensive. But I haven't seen a negotiation. That's the problem. I haven't seen that.
**主持人**: 好的，Paul，我们就谈到这里。非常感谢你的时间。感谢你在这件事上的见解。
Original English >> Okay, Paul, we are going to have to leave it there. I really appreciate your time. Thank you for your insights on this one.
**J. Paul Nadeau**: 非常感谢。
Original English >> Thank you very much.