--- author: TVO Today date: '2026-10-14' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXkCg5ZVZjw speaker: TVO Today tags: - trade-hedging - triangular-diplomacy - ev-supply-chain - national-security - industrial-policy title: 在美中博弈夹缝中对冲：加拿大对华经贸重启与电动汽车产业链重构 summary: 随着美加贸易紧张局势加剧，加拿大在卡尼政府领导下重启对华接触并推动经贸多元化。节目深度探讨加拿大在华盛顿与北京之间的战略对冲、在美墨加协定与国家安全约束下的经贸政策，以及通过允许配额准入与合资模式引入中国电动车、整合安大略电池制造与黑莓车机软件保障供应链安全的务实路径。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: macro-economy area: geopolitics project: [] people: - Mark Carney - Jeff Nankivell - Lynette Ong - Moe Kabbara companies_orgs: - TVO - BlackBerry - PetroChina - LNG Canada products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 破冰与对冲：加拿大对华政策转向 **彼得·纳瓦罗**: 你们和中国人睡在一张床上，还在那里跟我们耍心机。
Original English **Peter Navarro**: You're in bed with the Chinese and playing games with us there.
**杰扬·杰加纳森**: 这是**白宫**贸易顾问**彼得·纳瓦罗**早在八月份谈到加拿大以及持续的贸易战时所说的话。尽管总理**马克·卡尼**大概不会用这样的字眼来表述，但面对美国的贸易施压，加拿大正向中国寻求新的经济机遇。今年年初对中国进行正式访问期间，在宣布一项新协议时，总理这样说道。
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: That was white House trade adviser Peter Navarro talking about Canada and the ongoing trade war back in August. And while Prime Minister Mark Carney probably wouldn't put it quite like that, Canada's looking to China for new economic opportunities in the face of American trade aggression. Now, when he announced a new agreement during an official visit to the country at the beginning of this year, the Prime Minister put it like this.
**马克·卡尼**: 我相信我们在伙伴关系中取得的进展，使我们能够很好地面向**新世界秩序**。
Original English **Mark Carney**: I believe the progress that we have made in the partnership sets us up well for the new World Order.
**杰扬·杰加纳森**: 而且双方关系日益密切还有另一个迹象。下个月，加拿大企业将前往上海参加**中国国际进口博览会**，加拿大将作为主宾国出席。那么，我们与中国的关系会继续发展吗？这对加拿大以及**安大略省**来说又有哪些风险与收益？我是杰扬·杰加纳森，这里是《**The Rundown**》。在2025年4月的联邦党领袖辩论中，马克·卡尼对中国的表态截然不同。
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: And there's another sign of closer ties. Next month, Canadian companies will be heading to Shanghai for the China International Import Expo, where Canada will be the guest country of honour. So will our relationship with China continue to grow, and what are the risks and benefits for Canada and for Ontario? I'm Jeyan Jeganathan and this is The Rundown. During the federal leaders debate in April 2025, Mark Carney had a very different message about China.
**马克·卡尼**: 我认为加拿大面临的最大安全威胁是中国。
Original English **Mark Carney**: I think the biggest security threat to Canada is China.
**杰扬·杰加纳森**: 如今，两国正在加强经贸联系，数据说明了一切：今年上半年加拿大对华出口增长了30%。**杰夫·南基威尔**、**王惠玲**，非常感谢两位加入《The Rundown》。杰夫，我想先从你开始。你在中国拥有数十年的实地经验，曾多届加拿大联邦政府下担任外交官，现在是**亚太基金会**的总裁兼首席执行官。请帮助我们理解，自马克·卡尼于2025年3月出任总理以来，你会如何描述加拿大在修补对华关系方面取得的进展？
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: Now, the two countries are strengthening economic ties, and the numbers tell the story. Canada's exports to China were up 30% in the first half of this year. Jeff Nankivell, Lynette Ong, thank you so much for joining us on The Rundown. Jeff, I want to start with you. You've got decades of experience on the ground in China. You have worked as a diplomat under a number of federal Canadian governments. You are now president and CEO at the Asia Pacific Foundation. So help us understand how would you describe the progress Canada has made in mending fences with China since Mark Carney became Prime Minister in March 2025?
**杰夫·南基威尔**: 我认为取得了非常显著的进展，特别是自一月份卡尼总理访问北京以来。那确实是一次重大突破。在此之前，卡尼总理曾于十一月初在韩国举行的**亚太经合组织**首脑峰会上与**习近平**主席进行过一次简短会晤。但真正的突破确实是在一月份达成一系列协议时取得的。而且我认为，这不仅仅是加拿大在单方面寻求修补对华关系，中国同样也一直在寻求改善与加拿大的关系，因此双方在此都有内在的积极动力。
Original English **Jeff Nankivell**: I would say there's been very significant progress, especially since January with Prime Minister Carney's visit to Beijing. That was that was really a breakthrough. It was preceded by a short summit meeting that Prime Minister Carney had with President XI at the APEC summit. The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in Korea at the beginning of November. But the breakthrough really was in January with a with a number of deals. But I think it's not this is not only about Canada mending fences with China. I think China has been seeking a better relationship. And so there is motivation on both sides here.
**杰扬·杰加纳森**: 惠玲，你是多伦多大学中国政治学教授，也是蒙克全球事务与公共政策学院中国治理实验室的主任。在最近的一篇论文中你写道，引用你的原话：“重新接触中国的赌注显著上升，要求加拿大在华盛顿与北京之间进行微妙的平衡走钢丝。”你能否就此展开谈谈？加拿大究竟该如何在这两个大国之间找到平衡？
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: Well, Nat, you're a professor of Chinese politics at the University of Toronto, director of the China Governance Lab at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. In a recent paper, you wrote, quote, the stakes in re-engaging China have risen significantly, requiring Canada to navigate a delicate balancing act between Washington and Beijing. Can you elaborate a little bit on that? How does Canada find that balance with both countries?
**王惠玲**: 当然。我认为在当今时代，无论我们喜欢与否，加中双边关系都必须置于与美国的**三边关系**背景下来审视。我认为我们向中国的靠拢，本质上是一种**对冲策略**。当面临风险时，你就会选择对冲。大家都知道，美加关系出现了裂痕，或者随你怎么称呼这种破裂。因此我们必须进行对冲。中国作为崛起中的大国，是加拿大的第二大贸易伙伴，我们需要实现多元化。所以这既是一项**多元化战略**，也是一项对冲战略。但是，两国的价值观并不一致，这一点我们长期以来心知肚明。但现在也是时候将政治价值观与经济需求及现实必要性分离开来，这就是为什么我认为必须保持一种平衡。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: Sure. I think the bilateral relations between Canada and China in this day and age should really be seen in the context of a triangular relationship with the United States, whether we like it or not. I think our pivot towards China is really that of a hedging strategy. So you hedge when there's a risk. You know, there has been a fallout. Whatever terms that you want to use, rupture between United States and Canadian relations. So we have to hedge and, you know, like China being a rising power, the second largest trading partner, we need to diversify. So this is very much a diversification strategy as well as hedging strategy. But, you know, our values do not align. And we know that for a long a long time. But this is also the time to be able to separate political values from economic needs. And and necessities, which is why I think there's a balance there.
### 华盛顿视角与美墨加协定阴影 **杰扬·杰加纳森**: 杰夫，你认为美国是如何看待加拿大扩大对华贸易这一诉求的？
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: Jeff, how do you think the US is viewing Canada's aspirations for more trade with China?
**杰夫·南基威尔**: 嗯，我认为在华盛顿内部，我们必须把**特朗普政府**区分开来对待，而且即使在特朗普政府内部，也有特朗普总统本人和其他官员之分。我想说，特朗普政府对加拿大以及美国的其他盟友与中国进行任何形式的和解都持极其怀疑的态度。但这并不一定是因为美国希望构筑一个稳固的战线，以便贯彻对华竞争和遏制的一致政策。因为这里的最大未知数，也就是真正不确定的地方在于，特朗普总统及其核心团队究竟希望美中关系走向何方。 因此我认为，在这场三边关系中，加拿大持续面临的风险之一就是：美国警告加拿大“你们不能做这个，不能做那个”，然后转过头来，美国自己却跑去和中国单独达成交易。我们在第一届特朗普政府时期就已经见过这种情形：当时美国与中国达成了双边贸易协议，中国在协议中作出了承诺——虽然这些承诺后来从未得到完全履行，但当时中国承诺大量采购美国大宗商品，比如大豆、天然气、金属等各类物资，而其中的一部分采购是以牺牲加拿大在华市场份额为代价的。 因此，这是我们与其他和中国有经贸往来的国家共同面对的担忧，即美国自己去搞闭门交易。不过回到我们最初的话题，我认为华盛顿目前正在密切关注加中两国之间贸易协议或双边关系的任何实质性推进。
Original English **Jeff Nankivell**: Well, I think in Washington. So I think we have to distinguish here the Trump administration and and even within the Trump administration, there's President Trump and there are the others. I would say the Trump administration is taking a very sceptical view of of Canada and other allies of the U.S. having any kind of a rapprochement with with China. But it's not necessarily taken from a point of view that that the U.S. wants to ensure a solid front for a consistent policy of of competing with China containing China, because the wild card here, what's really uncertain is where President Trump and his team see the U.S. China relationship going. So I think we do. One of the risks in this triangular relationship for Canada continues to be that the U.S. tells Canada, you can't do this, you can't do that. And then they go ahead and make their own deal. And we've seen that previously in the first Trump administration, where the U.S. cut a bilateral trade deals with China, that where China undertook commitments which were never completely followed through on but at the time undertook commitments to buy large volumes of U.S. commodities. You know, soybeans and natural gas and metals and other things. Some of which would come at the expense of Canada's market share there. So this is a concern that we share with other countries who trade with China, is that the U.S. cuts its own deals. But to come back to to where we started on this, I think Washington is keeping a close eye on on any kind of advancements in trade agreements or relationships between Canada and China.
**杰扬·杰加纳森**: 惠玲，加拿大是否想与中国达成自由贸易协定？
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: Lynette, does Canada want a free trade deal with China?
**王惠玲**: 我认为卡尼总理已经排除了这种可能性，如果我没记错的话。但正如杰夫所提到的，我认为我们需要将特朗普政府与以往的美国政府区分开来。美方的担忧在于，北京可能会利用与加拿大的紧密联系作为后门，借道进入北美市场，从而违反《**美墨加协定**》（**USMCA**）。 但事实是，美国对加拿大征收关税的行为，本身就已经违反了现有的各项贸易协定。就在几周前，当习近平主席访问华盛顿特区时，美方铺开红地毯迎候，特朗普总统流露出的紧张神情，以及他对习主席给予的英雄式礼遇，与他对包括加拿大在内的其他盟友的态度相比，形成了鲜明反差。这种态度极其缺乏连贯性，充斥着双重标准与前后矛盾。因此我认为，从渥太华的角度来看，我们理应放手去推进那些我们认为最符合自身最佳利益的事项。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: I think Prime Minister Carney has ruled that out. If I am if I'm right. But as Jeff has mentioned, I think we need to separate the Trump administration from previous US administration. I think there are the their concern is that Beijing may use closer ties with with Canada as a back door to enter into North American market in violation of Usmca. But the fact of the matter is that the tariffs that United States have imposed on Canada. That is already in violation of whatever trade agreements they are out there. Right. And just a couple of weeks ago, you know, when president Prison visited the Washington, D.C. the red carpet, the nervousness on on President Trump, the the sort of, you know, hero treatment that he has extended to President XI versus other allies, including Canada. It's very inconsistent. So there's, you know, a lot of hypocrisy there and a lot of inconsistency. So I, I would think from Ottawa's perspective, we just we should just go ahead and do what is what we think is in our best, best interest.
**杰扬·杰加纳森**: 杰夫，让我们就此展开讨论一下。中国是我们的第二大贸易伙伴，因此人们自然会想到，自贸协定或许是备选方案之一。加拿大为什么会想要或者不想要自贸协定？
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: Jeff, let's expand a little bit on that. You know, this China is our second biggest trading partner. So naturally, one would think that perhaps a free trade deal is in the in the play there. Why would Canada want one or why wouldn't it.
**杰夫·南基威尔**: 我不认为加拿大在寻求自贸协定。我没有看到任何迹象表明现任加拿大政府正在寻求与中国达成全面自由贸易协定。如果真有类似的形式出现，最有可能的路径将是：如果中国最终加入《**全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定**》（**CPTPP**）。加拿大是其创始成员国，该协定目前涵盖12个国家，包括东南亚国家、日本、澳大利亚，以及最近加入的英国——这也是首个加入该协定的非太平洋沿岸国家。那将是一个更有可能的载体。 卡尼总理领导的政府已经明确表示，在“加中快速通道”中，某些车道是严格禁止通行的，尤其是在与国防安全以及围绕**人工智能**和**量子计算**的高精尖技术相关的领域。 因此，我不认为存在追求全面自由贸易协定的意愿或规划。但与此同时，政府明确希望并计划在某些具体行业领域达成行业性谅解协议，比如农产品食品领域。加拿大在今年一月份获得了一些关税减免，但这实际上只是让我们部分回到了几年前彼此展开以牙还牙关税战之前的状态。 加拿大几年前曾对中国电动汽车征收100%的关税，中国随后对多种加拿大农产品实施了报复性关税。在卡尼总理一月份访华期间，部分关税达成了临时减免，但这种减免仅仅持续到今年年底。因此，加拿大近期的核心诉求是争取延长这些关税减免政策；其次是扩大覆盖范围，例如目前油菜籽适用较低关税，但其他菜籽油加工衍生产品仍面临高额关税，所以需要争取全面性的农产品关税减免；从长远来看，则是要寻求某种途径，获得北京方面更强有力的保证，确保今后不再出台此类任意性的报复措施。但我认为，这一切将更多以行业对行业的方式推进，而不是以综合性贸易协定的形式展开。
Original English **Jeff Nankivell**: I don't think Canada I don't see any indication that that the government of Canada today is seeking a comprehensive free trade agreement with China. If something like that were to come, the most likely avenue would be. If there were some eventual agreement for China to join the. The Trans-Pacific partnership, of which Canada is a founding member, now known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific partnership, which is now. 12 countries, including countries in Southeast Asia, Japan, Australia, and most recently the United Kingdom. The first country Non-pacific bordering country to. To join that agreement that that would be a more likely vehicle. The. The Prime Minister Carney's government has made it clear that there are there are certain lanes in the. In that Canada-china Expressway that that are off that are going to be off limits in areas related to defence and security and advanced technologies around AI and quantum. Just just to give a few examples. So so I don't think there's a there's an aspiration or a plan to seek a free trade agreement, but at the same time, there is definitely a hope and a plan to, to get sectoral understandings in areas like agrifood, where Canada got some tariff relief in January. But really it's only brought us partway back to to where we were a few years ago, before we had, you know, tit for tat tariffs. Canada put 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs a couple of years ago. China responded with punitive tariffs on a number of Canadian agri food products. Some of those tariffs were reduced on a temporary basis at the at the time of Prime Minister Kearney's visit in January, but only to only to the end of this year. So it's a major Canadian objective, you know, in the short term is to get extension for for that tariff relief. Secondly, to expand the coverage, for instance, canola seeds are at a relatively low tariff now. But there are other variants of canola products that still face high tariffs. So to get expanded tariff relief across the board for agri food products and then longer term, to find some way to to get stronger assurance from Beijing that these kinds of arbitrary measures will not be imposed in the future. But I think you'll see that pursued more on a sector by sector basis than as a comprehensive trade agreement.
### 行业突破与安全风险考量 **杰扬·杰加纳森**: 惠玲，请你简短回应一下。稍后我们会详细讨论中国在加拿大对外直接投资中的行业占比，但请你先对刚才的内容作个回应。
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: I'll get you to respond quickly to that. We will talk a little bit about sectoral shares of China's foreign direct investments, but I'll get you to respond there. Right?
**王惠玲**: 好的。我认为，传统上农副产品食品一直是我们对华最大的出口商品。但我们在清洁技术合作以及**液化天然气**等能源经贸方面也有很大的合作空间。 例如，我们目前允许49,000辆中国**电动汽车**进入加拿大，前提是未来几年我们将探讨与中国汽车企业建立合资企业。这是有争议的，人们普遍担心安全风险。但我认为，如果我们能够确保在加拿大本土创造就业机会，并实现部分技术的转移吸收，这绝对是值得认真考虑的方向。 当然，华盛顿方面担心汽车会成为进入北美市场的潜在后门。但在我看来，这个产业完全有潜力使我们的消费者受益，而且从占我们整个汽车产业总量的比例来看，这批进口配额的绝对数量是非常微小的。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: Yeah. So I think, you know, agri food has been traditionally the our biggest exports to China. But I think we also have a lot to gain in terms of collaboration and trade cooperation in terms of clean technology and potentially energy like LNG. So we have allowed for 49,000 electric vehicles from China to come in with the understanding that in the next couple of years, we'll be looking at joint joint ventures with Chinese automobile companies. That is controversial. People are worried about security risks. But I think, you know, if we can get guarantee that jobs will will be created in Canada and there will be transferring some technology over. I think this is something to think about. Of course, the Washington, D.C. is concerned about potential backdoor automobile into North American market. But, you know, I think this is a sector that could potentially benefit our our consumers. And overall, the numbers is very small in terms of the overall percentage of our automobile mobile industry.
**杰扬·杰加纳森**: 好的。杰夫，我想在这里打断一下，因为惠玲提到了国家安全，这是一个我们必须深入探讨的重大课题。不久之前，马克·卡尼还曾称中国是加拿大最大的安全与地缘政治威胁。而到了2026年，我们却在这里讨论贸易协定。请帮我梳理一下，与中国建立更紧密的经贸合作关系，存在哪些对内和对外的风险？
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: All right. Well, yeah. Well, Jeff, I want to cut in here because Lynnette brings up security and that's a big conversation that we need to talk about. It wasn't that long ago that Mark Carney called China the biggest security and geopolitical threat. And here we are in 2026 talking about trade deals. So help me understand what are the domestic and external risks of a closer economic and trade relationship with China.
**杰夫·南基威尔**: 在谈安全之前，我想先补充一下出口图景。正如我提到的，加拿大正寻求在农产品食品领域开放并获得更多确定性保障，但目前加拿大对华第一大出口行业是能源，尤其是原油是其中最具价值的组成部分。这是一个新兴趋势，也许稍后我们可以再详细讨论。 而在电动汽车方面，我认为这是渥太华必须极其谨慎、极其审慎行事的领域。必须明确制定极其坚定的规则和预期，建立相应的监管机制，以密切监控来自中国在该领域的投资。作为以低关税准入少量中国电动车协议的一部分，后续任何扩大准入的举措都必须受到极其严格的管理和监督，因为世界上其他地区在吸收此类投资方面的历史经验，并没有展现出清晰确凿的本土利益。
Original English **Jeff Nankivell**: Well, and before I come to that, I just wanted to jump in on on the sort of export picture the the I mentioned, you know, Canada is looking to open up and get more assurances on agri food, but now the leading export sector for Canada is energy and particularly crude oil is the most valuable part of that. And that's an emerging story. Maybe we can we can come back to that. And on the EVs, I think this is an area where Canada, Ottawa will have to move very carefully and very deliberately to see exactly to really set some some very firm rules and expectations, and to have a kind of regime to monitor if there is investment coming in from China in the sector, and as maybe part of a deal for expanded access above the the low level of access that's now coming in at a at a low tariff for Chinese EVs, that's that's going to need to be managed and policed very carefully, because the record in other parts of the world of these kinds of investments doesn't doesn't paint a clear picture of, of domestic benefits.
### 中国宏观经济与跨境安全界限 **杰扬·杰加纳森**: 惠玲，请从宏观上为我们勾勒一下中国目前的经济全貌。它的经济健康状况如何？
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: Lynette, give us a big picture here of China's economy right now. How healthy is its economy?
**王惠玲**: 某些部门，特别是高科技行业和出口导向型工业表现非常亮眼。但总体而言，经济仍处于低迷状态，因为房地产及相关行业通常占中国GDP的30%。该行业目前仍处于衰退之中，原因在于几年前**恒大集团**的爆雷，以及2020年出台的“三道红线”政策，这些对房地产行业踩下了急刹车。 鉴于这种情况，对加拿大的影响在于他们希望继续推动出口导向型增长。加拿大当然是一个相对较小的市场，但它有潜力成为通往北美乃至其他地区的大门。 但我还想回到安全风险这个问题上。我认为政府对国家安全风险有着非常清醒的认识。例如，它排除了在军事领域的合作以及安全情报交流。我认为在加拿大领土上对加拿大人民造成的实质伤害，这种风险是真实存在的。我们已经就外国干涉委托撰写了多份调查报告，我认为确实存在**跨国镇压**的个案。虽然相关证据非常难以收集，但我认为跨国镇压的风险在某种程度上是独立于贸易往来的。 我认为这是因为加拿大境内居住着规模庞大的华人侨民群体，中国外逃人员也在加拿大有所存在，因此中国政府试图将长臂管辖延伸到加拿大领土。无论我们是否与中国做生意，我们都必须面对这一现实风险。我认为我们应该将这一点与经贸合作及商业关系区分开来，因为这两者在本质上属于完全不同的范畴。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: Well, certain sector, high tech sector, export led industries are doing very well. But overall, the economy is still in doldrums because the real estate related sectors typically account for 30% of GDP. That is still in recession because of the collapse of Evergrande a couple of years ago, and because of XI Jinping's three red lines back in 2020, which put a brake on the sector dramatically. So, given that the implication on Canada is that they want to continue to drive export led growth, Canada is, of course, a you know, it's a relatively small market, but it could potentially open the door to North America and other places. But I want to come back to security risks. I think the government is very aware of national security risks. Right. It has ruled out cooperation on the military front and security exchanges, for instance. I think the harm done on Canadian people, on Canadian soil, I think the risk is real. We are taking. Well, we have commissioned reports on foreign interference. I think there are instances of transnational repression. Evidence on that is very difficult to come by, but I think there are risks of transnational repression is, in a way independent of trade. I think that is a product or or there's a relationship between the degree of the number of Chinese diaspora in the country. So whether or not we trade with China, we are going to face that risk because there's a large number of Chinese diaspora living in Canada. They're Chinese fugitives in in Canada. And therefore, the government wants to extend its long arm into Canadian soil. I think we should separate that from, you know, trade cooperation and economic relationships, because they are really two different equations.
**杰夫·南基威尔**: 杰扬，我完全同意惠玲关于双边关系整体格局的评估。国家安全确实是一个必须严密管控的重大问题。但我认为，完全可以在保持整体双边关系推进的同时妥善管控这一问题，从而扩大符合加拿大人利益的贸易与投资交往。 我们再看看加拿大迫切需要实现除美国之外的贸易多元化这一现实要求。你不可能忽视这个世界第二大经济体。尽管正如惠玲所指出的，如今中国的国内消费需求相对疲软，部分经济部门出现放缓，中国房产业主的资产财富有所缩水，但它依然是世界第二大经济体和制造业强国。它将持续需要各种形式的商品和服务进口。我们还没有谈到金融服务业，加拿大金融机构在华具有举足轻重的作用，且拥有巨大的增长潜力。因此，这种双边关系包含着多元维度的考量。
Original English **Jeff Nankivell**: Jeff. Yeah. And I Jeyan I would I would agree, I would agree with that assessment in terms of the overall relationship. It is a it is a significant issue that needs to be managed. But but I think there are ways of doing that in a in an overall relationship in which we can grow trade and investment engagement, which is definitely in the interests of Canadians. And we look at the imperative that we have in Canada to diversify our our trade beyond the United States. You can't ignore the world's second largest economy, although the consumer demand is is sluggish these days in China, as Lynnette said, there's there's some sectors of the economy that have slowed down and Chinese, you know, owners of of properties have seen their their wealth decline. It is still the world's second largest economy. And it's a manufacturing powerhouse. And it will continue to need all kinds of of imports of goods and also services. We haven't talked about financial services where Canadian companies have a, have a, have a prominent role and lots of upside potential. So, so there's, there's, there are different dimensions to the relationship.
### 能源投资与重大基础设施参与 **杰扬·杰加纳森**: 杰夫，我想快速调出一张图表，正如我之前承诺的，这是中国在加拿大对外直接投资的行业分布图，它直观展示了中国在加拿大的资产投资组合：正如你所提到的，其在加投资有45%集中在石油与天然气领域；30%投资于企业管理；金融与保险领域的投资占比不足10%；在采矿、技术、制造业及其余领域的投资各不足5%。惠玲，请帮我分析一下，我们是否有机会看到中国资本投资于卡尼总理优先推进的国家重大项目？我们看到石油天然气已经在列，而本届政府正在推进一系列潜在的基础设施重大项目清单，我们是否会看到中国参与其中？
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: Well, well, very quickly, Jeff, I actually do want to pull up a quick chart because I did promise of the sectoral share of China's foreign direct investment in Canada basically breaks down China's Canadian asset portfolio. As you mentioned, 45% of its investments here in oil and gas, as you mentioned, 30% in management of companies, less than 10% is in finance and insurance. As you mentioned, less than 5% each in mining, technology, manufacturing and the rest, Lynette, help me understand, is there any chance we will see China investing in any of Carney major project priorities? See oil and gas there. That is one that has been has been sort of pulled aside here with this government. There's a lot of infrastructure projects on that list, on that potential list there. Do we see China getting involved in some of those major projects?
**王惠玲**: 如果我站在渥太华决策者的角度来看，我认为总理希望将中国资本排除在那些可能对加拿大构成潜在安全风险的项目之外。 但我认为可能对中国资本持开放态度的行业之一是基础设施建设。中国人在基础设施工程建设方面极为出色，拥有极其丰富的经验，不仅在本土如此，在世界各地也是如此。“一带一路”倡议旗下的许多标志性项目都是以大型基础设施建设为核心的。 因此在这一领域，我认为他们有能力帮助我们，我们也有可能在基建施工方面展开合作。而这也是卡尼总理为提振加拿大经济而设定的核心优先事项之一。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: Well, I think if I'm sitting in Ottawa, I would think the Prime Minister wants to keep China out of projects that would pose might pose potential security risks to Canada. One sector that I think may be may be receptive to a Chinese capital would be infrastructure building. The Chinese are very good at building infrastructure. They have got a lot of experience doing that, not only domestically but around around the world. A lot of BRI projects are also infrastructure based. So on that front, you know, I think they might be able to help us and we might be able to work to work with them in terms of infrastructure construction, which is one of the main priorities of Prime Minister Carney in terms of stimulating the economy.
**杰扬·杰加纳森**: 杰夫，这部分由你来作最后总结。
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: Jeff, you got the last word here.
**杰夫·南基威尔**: 刚刚公布的加拿大液化天然气二期工程（**LNG Canada Phase 2**）就是一个典型范例。这是位于不列颠哥伦比亚省基蒂马特的大型液化天然气出口设施，也是加拿大历史上规模最大的私营部门单体投资项目。这可以说是一项举足轻重的重大国家级工程，而中国石油（**PetroChina**）正是该项目的合资伙伴之一，他们持有少数股权。 就在过去一周公布的这些关乎国家建设的重大项目中，就涉及数十亿加元规模的新增直接投资。其中绝大部分资金来自亚洲，而相当一部分正来自于中国。因此我认为，中国的能源消费需求与加拿大不断提升的能源供应能力之间存在高度契合，包括输送液化天然气、其他石油精炼衍生品以及日益增长的原油。虽然我们的长期目标应当是在中国之外实现能源客户群体的多元化布局——这正在逐步推进，我们也需要进一步加强——但目前的供需契合度是非常显著的。因此，我认为你会看到中国资本在能源特定板块受到切实欢迎，而这也是我们发展经济所切实的资金与市场需求。
Original English **Jeff Nankivell**: We had the announcement of the LNG Canada two project. This is the liquid liquefied natural gas export facility in Kitimat, the largest investment, largest private sector investment in Canadian history. You know, it was a major announcement. PetroChina, Chinese company is one of the partners and that they're a minority. They have a minority stake, but they. So just one of these nation building announcements that was made just in the past week involves a new investment on the scale of billions of dollars, new investment. Almost all of it is coming from Asia, and a share of that is coming from China. And so I think there is a there's a good fit between China's energy demand needs and Canada's increasing ability to supply both liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products and crude oil in increasing quantities and. And while we should aim to diversify the customer base beyond China for those products and they. And that is happening. We need more of that. But there is. There's a good fit there. So. So I think you will see Chinese investment welcomed on aspects of the of the energy sector. And and this is something that we need.
**杰扬·杰加纳森**: 这是一个我们将持续追踪的话题。杰夫，惠玲，非常感谢两位的参与。
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: A story we will continue to follow. Jeff. Lynette, thank you so much.
**杰夫·南基威尔**: 感谢邀请。
Original English **Jeff Nankivell**: Thanks for having me.
**王惠玲**: 好的。
Original English **Lynette Ong**: Yeah.
**杰扬·杰加纳森**: 谢谢两位。（音乐转场）
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: Thank you. [music]
### 电动汽车博弈：从配额准入到合资建厂 **杰扬·杰加纳森**: 正如我们刚才听到的，与中国达成的其中一项新协议涉及对多达49,000辆中国电动汽车削减关税。两国之间加强合作，是否真能为支持加拿大本土制造业和供应链创造机遇？**莫·卡巴拉**，欢迎来到《The Rundown》，最近怎么样？
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: So as we just heard, one of those new agreements with China involves cutting tariffs on up to 49,000 Chinese EVs. Could more cooperation between the two countries actually open up opportunities to support Canadian manufacturing and supply chains? Moe Kabbara, welcome to the rundown. How are you doing?
**莫·卡巴拉**: 我很好，非常感谢邀请我。
Original English **Moe Kabbara**: I'm doing well. Thank you for having me.
**杰扬·杰加纳森**: 你是**转型加速器**（**Transition Accelerator**）的首席执行官，这是一家专注于电气化和清洁能源转型的加拿大智库。抛开价格亲民度和消费者的多样化选择不谈，请帮助我们理解，如果加拿大允许中国电动汽车在本土销售，从长远来看究竟存在哪些潜在机遇？
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: You are the CEO of the Transition Accelerator, a Canadian think tank focused on electrification and clean energy. Now, aside from affordability and consumer choice, help us understand what are the opportunities over the long term. If Canada is allowing Chinese EVs to be sold here?
**莫·卡巴拉**: 这是一个非常好的问题。当我们审视联邦政府去年与中方达成的协议——实质上允许49,000辆汽车准入——其核心逻辑在于将**市场准入**作为针对中国汽车制造商实施产业政策与产业战略的关键杠杆。 现实情况是，中国车企以极其惊人的速度迭代了技术和产品线。如果放眼中国汽车制造企业以及中国汽车整体出口规模，而不仅仅局限于电动汽车：2020年，中国在海外市场的整车销量仅为100万辆；到了2025年，全年在海外售出700万辆；而到了今年（2026年），截至8月份累计销量就已经突破700多万辆，预计到年底全球出口将达到惊人的1000万辆。这相当于自2020年以来实现了整整十倍的出口爆炸式增长。 这意味着，从全球汽车产业格局来看，中国汽车制造商所确立的市场地位让我们面临着前所未有的严峻局势。而在这种庞大产业规模之上，他们在动力电池、电机驱动系统以及整车集成方面的技术突飞猛进。那么核心问题就变成了：从长远来看，我们在汽车制造业中的立足点究竟在哪里？ 因此，将进入加拿大市场的通道与产业杠杆挂钩，利用市场准入作为促使外方在加拿大进行本土化制造与资本投资的筹码，我认为这才是这项政策的终极目标。 这绝不仅仅关乎消费者能否买得起便宜的电车。价格实惠固然重要，但如果我们以牺牲本土工业部门、牺牲本土制造业基础和工业根基为代价来换取廉价商品，那将是一个极其严重的战略错误。这也是为什么我非常支持这种我称之为“**选择性暴露**”的策略：我们没有任由低价车泛滥市场，而是以市场准入换取真正的工业投资。稍后我们可以具体探讨这些投资合作应该采取何种架构落地。
Original English **Moe Kabbara**: Yeah, I mean, it's a great question. When we look at the deal that the government struck with the Chinese last year, essentially allowing 49,000 vehicles, a big part of that was what I would call using market access as a leverage point for industrial policy and industrial strategy vis a vis the Chinese automakers. So I think the reality is the Chinese have developed their technology and and the sort of product line in a very accelerated way. If we look at Chinese auto automakers and the Chinese auto exports broadly, not just electric vehicles, but more broadly. So it's just kind of contextualise where their position is. 2020, they sold outside of China, a million vehicles. Last year, they sold 7 million vehicles in 2025. This year, year to date in August was seven point something. They're expected to reach 10 million vehicles by the end of the year. So that's a ten X increase in exports from 2020. Right. So what that means is that there is a very difficult situation that we're facing in terms of how the Chinese automakers have positioned themselves from a global automotive perspective. But then when we add on top of that, their technological advancements on things like batteries and electric motors and electric vehicles, the question then becomes, well, what is really our position when it comes to auto manufacturing over the long term? And then structuring this access to our market with essentially a level with it being a leverage point to have some sort of manufacturing and investments in Canada, I think is the ultimate goal for this. So it's not just the affordability piece. I think that's part of it. But if we do that at the expense of our own sector and the expense of our own manufacturing and industrial base, then I think that's going to be a mistake, which is why I'm supportive of this sort of what I would call selective exposure. We didn't just let them flood the markets, but then trading market access for actual investments. And we can talk about what those things could look like and how to structure them.
**杰扬·杰加纳森**: 那么就让我们来谈谈这些具体的合作机遇。在供应链层面，一个依托加拿大的汽车供应链究竟会是什么形态？加拿大现有的零部件供应商是否能够从中切实获益？
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: Well, let's talk about those opportunities. Supply chains, you know, what would a Canadian supply chain look like? And could existing Canadian part suppliers benefit from that?
**莫·卡巴拉**: 是的。如果我们以奇瑞汽车（**Chery**）为例，这是中国头部车企之一，他们在近几个月已经公开表态，正在寻求开启一个合资合作与“**正和竞争**”的新时代。 那么这种合作模式在实践中具体长什么样？如果观察他们在其他国家和地区的运作模式，可以看到他们构建了各种合资合作架构。在不同的国际市场中存在几种不同的发展路径：有些公司倾向于全面掌控整条供应链，进入当地市场后并不与当地现有的零部件配套产业链深度融合；另一些企业则采取技术授权模式；还有的企业则通过收购股权建立战略合资伙伴关系。比如吉利汽车（**Geely**）与福特在西班牙工厂的合作中，吉利持有该合资实体约30%多的股权，而福特保留了66%的控制权。 因此我认为，具体的股权合作架构可以有很多种模式。但只要我们能以一种“正和合作”的方式来运作——即双方互惠互利，各取所需，并将其深度嵌入我们现有的工业供应链中。 最忌讳的做法就是所谓的“**全散件组装**”（**CKD / Knock-down assembly**）模式：外方直接运来所有打包好的零部件，像拼装乐高积木一样在加拿大本地组装成整车。如果你采用这种轻资产组装模式，你就根本无法在本土零部件制造网络和更广阔的供应链中获得实质的产业附加值与经济乘数效应。 因此，我们目前试图明确的核心课题就是：在市场准入方面我们手中握有哪些关键杠杆？我们能够提供什么？以及如何将加拿大汽车产业的潜在机遇最大化，从而捍卫并锁定本土汽车制造工业的未来——特别是在汽车产业占据安大略省经济半壁江山的现实背景下。
Original English **Moe Kabbara**: Yeah. So I mean, if we look at cherry, which is, you know, one of the companies they've, they've sort of proclaimed this in recent months that they're looking at this new era of joint ventures and positive sum competition. So what does that look like? Well, if we look at what they what they've done in other jurisdictions, we've seen them, you know, structure, joint ventures. And I think there are different models where we have some companies have, you know, full control of the supply chain, and they come to those markets and they don't really integrate with the existing supply chains and parts manufacturers in those markets. Some kind of Licence, their technology, some buy equity stakes and develop joint ventures like Geely, for example, there's a Spanish plant in with Ford that they've structured a joint venture where they've they've taken 30 some percent equity in Ford, retained 66%. So I think ultimately the exact structure. There are different models. But if you can do it in a way where I would call a positive some cooperation, where we get something, they get something and we can integrate it into our supply chains. The mistake would be, for example, doing something like knock down assembly, right? So they bring all the parts. It's sort of like a Lego kit, and they assemble it in the jurisdiction. You don't get the value add in the economic multipliers into the broader parts. Manufacturing supply chain. If you do, if you go after that model. So I think a part of what we're trying to figure out is, you know, what are the levers that we have, you know, vis a vis market access and what we can offer and how do we kind of maximize the opportunity for Canada and the Canadian auto sector as it exists to help, you know, secure the future of the auto sector, given that it's such an important part of our economy, especially in Ontario?
### 动力电池纵向整合与车机安全防线 **杰扬·杰加纳森**: 我想进一步探讨合作机遇，尤其是动力电池领域的产业潜力。我认为不仅是加拿大联邦层面，整个安大略省对该领域的产业前景都充满了兴奋与期待。加拿大究竟该如何以最优方式构建起完整的动力电池产业链？这在具体实践中究竟是怎样一幅蓝图？
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: I want to talk a little bit more about the opportunities, particularly with electric batteries. I think a lot of excitement in terms of what not only Canada, but the province of Ontario can do there. How can Canada best build out the supply chain for electric batteries, and what exactly would that look like?
**莫·卡巴拉**: 是的。我们在安大略省看到的进展——特别是由斯特兰蒂斯与LG合资的**NextStar Energy**电池厂，以及大众汽车集团旗下**PowerCo**打造的超级电池工厂——这是一个极其亮眼的开端，成果令人瞩目。接下来的核心课题就在于：整条产业链中的高附加值环节到底分布在哪里？ 这就是为什么我们在魁北克省布局正极材料前驱体与阴极制造，并将其与下游电芯组装深度整合；而在正极制造的上游，则涉及锂的精炼加工以及最源头的锂矿开采。 因此，当我们规划动力电池供应链时，核心在于认清加拿大真正的核心竞争力究竟在何处，以及我们手头掌握着什么样的博弈筹码。例如，我们所储备的**关键矿物资源**构成了不可替代的战略杠杆，特别是当你能够利用这些矿产禀赋，打通从矿山开采、化学加工、正极材料合成到电芯制造的全流程**纵向一体化整合**。而纵向一体化恰恰是大幅压降电池制造成本的核心胜负手。 如果你能够真正完成这种全维度的纵向一体化，且由于加拿大拥有丰富的原材料资源而具备完全落地的可行性，这将彻底释放海量的外商直接投资机遇，并借助属于加拿大自主的知识产权培育壮大本土科技与工程企业。 客观地讲，目前我们在电池领域的产业布局在相对意义上仍处于起步阶段。但相比2018年我们刚开始探讨这一议题时，如今已经取得了飞跃式的长足进步。安大略省政府在此倾注了坚定不移的战略投入，因为大家都清晰认识到，这是全球产业发展的必然大势。虽然中短期内我们依然可以继续生产传统的内燃机燃油车，但必须清醒意识到，全球整个汽车消费市场终将全面倒向电气化转型，因为电气化是效率更高、综合表现更卓越的技术路径。而驱动电动汽车的核心心脏就是动力电池，这也是整个整车价值链中占比最大、最核心的部分。
Original English **Moe Kabbara**: Yeah, I mean, I think what we've seen in Ontario, specifically with the two battery cell manufacturing plants, so the next star and the Power Co by VW is a great start. It's actually quite impressive. The opportunity then becomes what is the value? Where is the value add in the supply chain. So that's why seeing things like the cathode manufacturing in Quebec, integrating that and then upstream from that, the lithium processing and then lithium mining. So I think when we think about the battery supply chain, it's trying to understand where can Canada actually play and what leverage do we have? Like, I think access to our critical minerals becomes a leverage point, especially when you can use it to secure vertical integration from mining, processing, cathode and cells, which is really the name of the game when it comes to reducing costs, right? So if you're able to actually get vertical integration done and something that is can, can, can happen in Canada, because we have access to the materials, that is something that will, you know, unlock a lot of opportunities and potential for direct investments and help grow Canadian companies as well with Canadian IP. So I think the opportunity on batteries is still quite nascent, relatively speaking. But we're we've grown significantly since, you know, when we started this conversation around 2018. And the Ontario government has been quite committed to this as well, because they Recognize that that's where the world is headed. And we can still make internal combustion engines in the near and medium term. But recognizing that, you know, overall, the market is going to go to electrification because it's the more efficient technology. And what powers an electric vehicle is a battery. And that's where most of the value is.
**杰扬·杰加纳森**: 好的，我想将讨论焦点从硬件制造转向软件与信息安全。你刚才提到了加拿大本土企业，那我们就来聊聊**黑莓公司**（**BlackBerry**）。黑莓旗下的**QNX**车机系统与软件已经安装在全球约2.5亿辆汽车上，其中也广泛涵盖了中国制造的电动汽车。如果中国车企希望在加拿大汽车市场获取更大的准入空间，黑莓能在其中扮演怎样的战略角色？
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: All right. I want to move from hardware to software. You talked about Canadian companies. Let's talk BlackBerry. Their software is installed in about 250 million cars around the world, including Chinese EVs. What role could BlackBerry play here if China wanted even greater access to that Canadian market?
**莫·卡巴拉**: 我认为，在我们所定义的“**中国硬件搭载加拿大软件**”这种协同架构中，黑莓能够发挥无可替代的巨大作用，这正是化解当下各方关于**网络安全**与数据主权焦虑的绝佳化解路径。 对于网络安全层面的顾虑，我个人绝不属于那种对此完全嗤之以鼻、全盘否定安全风险的人；但我同样也不赞同那种极端的末日论调——即有些人宣称“只要你把中国电动车插头插进插座充电的那一秒，整个北美电网就会瞬间被引爆瘫痪”。我认为，在全盘忽视风险与陷入末日恐慌这两种极端思维之间，存在着广阔的理性光谱。 要真正以审慎、专业的态度正视风险，以高度警惕应对安全关切，实质上意味着我们拥有绝佳的产业机遇：即通过引入并深度嵌入加拿大本土软件，从而对整条供应链实现全流程安全加固，并完全掌控这些汽车产品进入加拿大市场后的底层运行逻辑。相较于外方，我们对本土软件公司拥有更高的管辖权、法规约束力和透明度。而黑莓正是一家在汽车安全操作系统领域极为成熟的企业，是这一赛道当之无愧的全球领军者。 因此我认为，这一模式不仅能够通过扶持壮大像黑莓这样的本土标杆科技企业，切实提振加拿大本国的核心经济活力，同时更在现实层面为我们筑牢了国家安全与数据合规的坚实防线，可谓一举两得。
Original English **Moe Kabbara**: I think there's a great role to what we've called sort of Canadian software on Chinese hardware as a way to kind of mitigate some of the concerns related to cybersecurity. And I think I'm not one of the people that completely dismisses those concerns, but I'm also not the one the, you know, one of the people that says, you know, we're going to plug in a Chinese EV and it's going to blow up the grid the minute you plug it into your into your, your socket. So I think there's a spectrum there in terms of being completely dismissive and then being, you know, on the other side, I would call the sort of apocalyptic sense of, of the risk. And I think to actually treat the risks with respect and treat the risk with, with, with vigilance means that, hey, there's an opportunity to actually secure the, you know, the supply chain and secure what these products are going to, you know, how they're going to operate in Canadian markets by leveraging Canadian software, which we have more control over, more visibility over in terms of the company and BlackBerry being one that is mature. It's it's a world leader in this space. So I think not only is it something where it does actually add to the economic activity in the in Canada by, you know, growing companies like BlackBerry, but it has the actual advantage of, you know, helping us on the security front as well.
**杰扬·杰加纳森**: 莫·卡巴拉，我们的讨论时间到了，今天只能聊到这里。非常感谢你带来的深刻洞见，非常感谢！
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: Moe Kabbara. We're going to have to leave it there. Really appreciate your insights on this. Thank you so much.
**莫·卡巴拉**: 不客气，非常高兴能与你交流，谢谢。
Original English **Moe Kabbara**: Of course. Yeah. Happy to chat. Thank you. [music]
**杰扬·杰加纳森**: 您认为加拿大应该寻求与中国建立更紧密的经贸联系吗？其中的收益是否大于潜在风险？欢迎在评论区留下您的看法，或者发送邮件至 Rundown@TVO.org。我们明天同一时间再见。（片尾音乐）
Original English **Jeyan Jeganathan**: Do you think Canada should be pursuing closer ties with China? Do the benefits outweigh the risks? Let us know in the comments or send an email to Rundown@TVO.org. Until then, I will see you tomorrow. [music]